Sunday, August 21, 2011

Pryor Engagement

Monday afternoon, the NFL will kick off it's usually lackluster Supplemental Draft. However, let's call tomorrow's events by what it actually is: Terrelle Pryor's 2nd Signing Day. Much like three years ago, when Pryor was a Vince Young clone and the top high school recruit out of Jeanette, Pennsylvania, Pryor will sit back and watch the desperation in the eyes staring down the 6'5, 233lb quarterback as their meal ticket.




By now, you've probably heard of Pryor's story. After a semi-successful career at Ohio State, Pryor got pinched along with several other Buckeyes for selling off school memorabilia in exchange for free tattoos and other perks. Pryor and company were set to be suspended for the first five games of the 2011 season. Then, a more intense investigation began which lead to the termination of longtime coach Jim Tressel and Pryor, feeling the hot water rising under his feet, decided to high-tail it out of Columbus and pleaded his case to Commissioner Goodell to let him into the supplemental draft. Goodell granted Pryor's wish last week and 17 teams came out Saturday afternoon to watch Pryor's Pro Day, where he flashed his 4.4 speed and big arm but also the inaccuracy that still scares GMs.


The question now becomes: Where will Pryor land? In an effort to give my best educated guess as to where Terrelle will land, I did my own homework. I took all 32 teams and eliminated 24 of them based on one of three requisites: The team is expected to be a strong contender in the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes next April, the team drafted a quarterback in the last three years or the team lacks a proven backup. That left me with eight teams, three of which I think are more dark horses than surefire candidates. Before I get into who made the cut, I'll delve into my three reasons for elimination and the teams that won't be having Terrelle Pryor jerseys stitched up anytime soon.


1. The Andrew Luck Sweepstakes: Normally, teams that lack a franchise QB would be the most common applicants for someone of Pryor's potential. The only problem with that this year is that Stanford QB and Heisman Trophy favorite Andrew Luck is on top of draft boards barring a senior season that leads to his arm falling off. Sure, Pryor will cost you a lower draft pick tomorrow than Luck will in late-April but you're also getting a lower caliber QB. For all of Pryor's size and speed, he struggles with accuracy, which is kind of like having a Dodge Viper but no steering wheel. Luck has been heralded by some as the best QB prospect in decades, someone comparable to Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. If your a team that isn't expected to contend, why clog a potential roster spot with Pryor when you have a shot at Luck? Here's who fit this category:

*Buffalo Bills
*Miami Dolphins
*Oakland Raiders(though, in a weird state of affairs, the Raiders could actually win the AFC West. Just depends which Raiders team shows up)
*Washington Redskins
*Seattle Seahawks(they, too, could win their division, too, since they managed to do so with Charlie Whitehurst and a 7-9 record last year)


2. Team Drafted A QB Last Three Years: In theory, if you're using a 2012 pick on Pryor, you'd like for him to be more than a career backup. Anybody can hold a clipboard. Look at what the Ravens did. They let Marc Bulger retire and gave his backup job to 7th round pick Tyrod Taylor, who some teams wanted to move from QB to WR. Teams that have already pegged their franchise QB in the last few years aren't going to roll the dice on Pryor. Now, the Falcons made this category, eventhough they drafted Matt Ryan FOUR years ago...AND, technically, they have a proven backup in Chris Redman(yeah, I chuckled when I wrote that, too) so they could have found themselves in the "Dark Horse" section had they actually sent someone to attend Pryor's Pro Day. I'm going to go on a limb and say the Falcons are set at QB. Anyway, here's the rest of the group joining Atlanta on the X'd out list.

*New York Jets(Mark Sanchez)
*New England Patriots(Ryan Mallett)
*Tennessee Titans(Jake Locker)
*Jacksonville Jaguars(Blaine Gabbert)
*Denver Broncos(Tim Tebow....plus they traded for Brady Quinn, who may be the best QB in preseason thus far)
*Cleveland Browns(Colt McCoy)
*Cincinnati Bengals(Andy Dalton)
*Detroit Lions(Matt Stafford....though Pryor wouldn't be bad Stafford insurance if the injuries cut Stafford's career short)
*Minnesota Vikings(Christian Ponder)
*San Francisco 49ers(Colin Kaeparnick)
*St. Louis Rams(Sam Bradford)
*Tampa Bay Bucs(Josh Freeman)
*Carolina Panthers(Cam Newton and Jimmy Clausen)


(The Arizona Cardinals could fit here, too, with their trade for Kevin Kolb and the drafting of Max Hall and John Skelton last year. However, because of the latter part of that sentence, they are prime candidates for reason # 3)


3. No Proven Backup: Your best case scenario if you're drafting Pryor is that he's your #3 in Year 1, possibly your backup in Year 2 and, at least, starter-ready in Year 3. Think of how far behind the curve people believe Cam Newton is before he got to Carolina. Pryor's father behind than Cam, and he'll miss the first five games of the season due to a suspension. You don't want to be in a situation where Pryor can get in the game this year because he still has a lot to learn and you don't want to wreck a young QB's confidence early by throwing him to the wolves too soon. Need proof? See: Carr, David or Couch, Tim. Here's the last cuts before we get into our contenders.


*Houston Texans(Matt Leinart? You want Terrelle learning from him?)
*Kansas City Chiefs(Ricky Stanzi and Tyler Palko, anyone?)
*Baltimore Ravens(Tyrod Taylor. Though, if they had kept Bulger or signed a vet, Baltimore would be a great fit for Pryor. Who better to whip a snot-nosed kid into shape than Ray Lewis?)
*New York Giants(Sage Rosenfals and the aforementioned David Carr. Gabe has a better chance of being Eli's backup than these two)
*Arizona Cardinals(Skelton and Hall....you'd have to think if they were promising, the Cards wouldn't have given $60 mil to Kolb)
*New Orleans Saints(Chase Daniel)


(The Dolphins, Jets and Bucs could have all made this spot if they hadn't already made the 2nd one, which makes them even more of a poor fit for Pryor.)


Now, onto the contenders. We'll start with the teams I don't think will take Pryor but would be a good fit if they did.




DARK HORSES


1. Indianapolis Colts: Sure, they fit into Tier 3 because Curtis Painter is far from a proven backup but who better to learn from as an aspiring young NFL QB than Peyton Manning? If you're a Colts fan and you're not scared about Manning's recovery from neck surgery, I want a piece of what you're smoking. Even owner Jim Irsay seemed nervous in his tweets over the weekend when he asked Colts Nation for suggestions on veteran QBs to sign in the event Peyton isn't up to snuff by Week 1. Irsay also said he wasn't interested in Pryor, which is funny because both he and his director of player operations Kevin Colbert were in attendance for Pryor's workout. So, either Irsay didn't see something he liked or he's providing a smokescreen using the embers of the mind-altering hallucinogens Manning-optimists are blazing up.



In a weird way, the Colts could fit into Tier 1. Let's say Manning's neck injury has him miss a significant portion of 2011. Do you have faith that a Colts team with no running game, a shaky offensive line and Curtis Painter at QB can win more than 4 games in a improved AFC South? On top of that, given Peyton's age and newfound injury history, wouldn't it benefit the Colts to punt this season and use the top pick on Luck? Remember back in 1997, when a San Antonio Spurs team with a in-his-prime David Robinson sank to the league's worst record when "The Admiral" missed most of the season with a bad back? Next year, they get Tim Duncan #1 overall, send Robinson home a champion that season and win three more rings in the process. Imagine passing the torch from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck, Colts fans? Now go punch Peyton repeatedly in the neck.




Kidding aside, Manning will do his damnedest to play all 16 because of what the consecutive games streak means to him, which means the Colts will be, at least, an 8 win team even if Manning's playing at 75%. Still, the team needs to plan for Manning's heir apparent much like the Patriots potentially did with Ryan Mallett. Pryor has Day 1 talent at a Day 2 price. Irsay might say he's not interested and he very well might not be, but he has a good chance at landing Peyton's successor here because, if he believes Painter is it, he's partaking in the same stuff the Manning optimists are.


2. Green Bay Packers: Green Bay is pretty much set at QB with reigning Super Bowl MVP and potential regular season MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers entrenched at starter and a backup in Matt Flynn, who could probably start for half the teams in Tier 1 right now. Still, because Flynn's stock is rising and, thus, the possibility of him getting dealt next season looms, the Packers could take a chance on a guy like Pryor. Like in Indy, Pryor would be learning from one of the game's best in A-Rod. With Flynn set as the #2, Pryor doesn't have to worry about seeing action unless another bad string of injuries like what Green Bay dealt with last year strikes again this season. On top of that, if Pryor were to see the field in Year 2, he'd have a receiving core that's four wideouts deep with Greg Jennings, James Jones, Donald Driver and Jordy Nelson and has a good young tight end in Jermichael Finley. Nevin Shapiro couldn't buy that kind of talent for Pryor in college. The problem, of course, is there's no way Pryor would ever start in Title Town unless Rodgers went down. Rodgers is 27 and coming off three seasons of nearly 4,000 yards. He's one of the 2 or 3 best QB's in the world. Unless he retires early, Pryor's going to be his caddy for a while. That could benefit Pryor, much like sitting on the bench did for A-Rod, but it would be a waste of a pick for a Packers team that might need help elsewhere.


3. Chicago Bears: I couldn't help but look over the Bears' depth chart and become intrigued at the thought of Chicago reeling in Pryor. Their top two QBs right now are Jay Cutler and Caleb Hanie. The team traded a boatload to make Cutler their guy and, at 28, he's not exactly going out to pasture soon. Hanie, meanwhile, showed his mettle in relief for Cutler in the NFC Championship and, while he's by no means starter-quality, he's at least a capable backup. That means Pryor could easily be the Bears #3 in Year 1. Here's where things get interesting. Cutler is not exactly a fan favorite in the Windy City after a couple ho-hum seasons and the fact he pussed out of the biggest game of their season in January. It's make or break for Cutler this year. Plus, given how bad the Bears' offensive line is, Pryor could be starting his first game when he comes back from suspension in Week 6. Pryor's mobility definitely gives him an advantage over Cutler and Hanie when neutralizing the team's poor pass protection, but that QB situation is too unstable to be an optimal landing spot for Pryor. One bad season could find Cutler, Hanie and coach Lovie Smith out of the door by year's end, leaving Pryor in limbo under a new regime.


THE FAVORITES(from least likely to most)

4. San Diego Chargers: Obviously, the Chargers aren't in the market for a QB with Phillip Rivers as their guy. However, Rivers will be 30 in December and backup Billy Volek is 35. Needless to say, an infusion of youth is necessary. Pryor could sit the bench in Year 1, take over for Volek in Year 2 and continue to wait it out behind Rivers as Phillip gets older. Pryor's speed would be a nice change of pace by comparison to the statuesque Rivers, albeit it would come with a severe dip in terms of accuracy. Pryor probably wouldn't start for San Diego anytime soon but the fact that Charger suits were at Pryor's Pro Day means they have some interest and, certainly, there's a spot for him in San Diego. Do I think they pull the cord? Probably not. Given who's left on this list, it's hard to see A.J. Smith being more aggressive than the heavy hitters he has in front of him, but that's not to say he won't give it a shot.


3. Dallas Cowboys: The team that took chances on guys like Demitrius Underwood, Michael Irvin, Terrell Owens, Ryan Leaf, Pac-Man Jones, Quincy Carter and Keyshawn Johnson has to be in the mix for the much-ballyhooed former Buckeye. The triumvirate for "America's Team", as it stands, is Tony Romo, Jon Kitna and Stephen McGee. At 38, Kitna's probably playing after this year and Romo, at 31, has to know that his window for winning a title(more because of pressure than age) is coming to a close as will his time in Big D. The team likes McGee but he doesn't have the upside that Pryor possesses. Pryor is the big name and the Cowboys have a long history under Jerry Jones of going after guys whose star power is befitting of that huge star at midfield. In Dallas, Pryor could be groomed by Romo and Kitna in Year 1, then battle it out with McGee over Kitna's spot next year with the hope that they will inevitably succeed Romo in the future. As an added bonus, Pryor gets to sit while Dallas' woe begotten offensive line gets rebuilt and the team continues to add talent on offense to go with Felix Jones, Miles Austin, Jason Witten and Dez Bryant. If there was ever a prime candidate to overbid for Pryor, it's Jerry Jones' Cowboys.


2. Pittsburgh Steelers: The fact that head coach Mike Tomlin personally came to watch Pryor's Pro Day tells you something about the amount of interest Pittsburgh has and, really, Pryor to the Steelers is a great fit. For one, he's a Pennsylvania kid who shattered records in Jeanette, PA. Like in Dallas, he'll benefit from having a slew of savvy vets in front of him to keep him off the field and mentor him while the patchwork offensive line becomes a bit less.....well, patchwork. The Steelers have Ben Roethlisberger as their guy and, barring another late night illegal tryst, that's not going to change, but the spots behind Big Ben could. Byron Leftwich is 31 and may eventually want to take another stab at starting elsewhere. Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch are fighting for the 3rd spot(with the loser probably getting cut) but, at 26 and expected to hit free agency again next year, Dixon might chase starter money elsewhere and the 36-year old Batch won't be around for much longer either. The depth chart at QB might be a bit congested but the injury history of all four QBs might make things less murky for Pryor. That's why this scenario isn't the #1 spot. It's not inconceivable that, given that shoddy O-Line, Pryor could accelerate up the charts with a few bad hits to the guys in front of him. We know Ben will play through pain but Dixon's had severe injuries in two of his last four seasons(including his final year at Oregon) and Leftwich and Batch are hardly iron men. On a contender like Pittsburgh, you want to avoid turning the keys over to Pryor early so the Steelers would need some good fortune from the trainer's table to avoid Pryor seeing the field in Year 1.


1. Philadelphia Eagles: As much as it pains me to write this, Pryor going to Philly makes the most sense. For one, like with Pittsburgh, Pryor will benefit from being back home....even if that home is in Philly. Second, who better to train this kid than the two guys he's been compared to his entire career, Vince Young and Mike Vick? On top of that, who better to teach Pryor about making believers out of skeptics than last year's Comeback Kid in Vick? Thirdly, is there a big name this offseason that Philly HASN'T reeled in so far? Nnamdi Asomugha, Ronnie Brown, Vince Young, Cullen Jenkins, Steve Smith, Ryan Harris......it was like they signed a solid free agent a week. Another benefit for Pryor will be having Andy Reid as his coach. Reid might be a brainfart expert when it comes to time management and pulling it out in pressure situations but there are few better at developing a young QB. He made Donovan McNabb a household name when everyone in "The City of Brotherly Love" was clamoring for Ricky Williams. He made guys like A.J. Feeley serviceable. He breathed life back into the career of Jeff Garcia. Most importantly, he turned Vick's career around last year. Reid is always looking for a project to groom and Pryor fits that bill to a tee. Like Young and Vick, Pryor was a winner in college who struggled with accuracy but possessed enough raw talent to warrant rolling the dice. On paper, they are the perfect mentors if Vick continues his rebirth and Young stays away from the Zanex and Patron. The Eagles have made it clear it's all-or-nothing this year. Still, Vick is 31 and on a one-year deal, as is Vince Young(who is going to want to eventually find a starter job somewhere). There isn't much behind these two and if Vick is able to pass the torch in a couple years to Pryor, it would add years to Reid's tenure with the Eagles.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

No One Man Should Have All That Power

We waited and waited, as NFL fans, for the return of football. In late July, we got our wish. While time will tell as to who inevitably got the better of the five-month staredown between the players and owners, all the major bulletpoints point to the players getting the better end of the new CBA. However, while the players walked away from this agonizing ordeal with a paper W, one man wants another crack at the cookie jar.


That man is Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson.




Johnson isn't the only player who felt the need to rain on football's welcome back parade by selfishly holding out of camp in search of a new deal. DeSean Jackson did it. Osi Umenyiora did it. The past few weeks have been more about who's not in camp than a celebration over the fact that there's actually a camp for them to not report to. The difference between Johnson and the latter two is that DeSean and Osi eventually agreed to return to camp and leave the differences to be settled at a later date. CJ2K, meanwhile, might not be suiting up for the Titans for awhile, it seems. Every season has holdouts as players, gassed up by the whispers of their agents, sit on their couch with a pretend bruised ego and an inflated sense of worth. We saw it last year with the standoff between cornerback Darrelle Revis and the Jets and this year's Johnson-Titans showdown seems to mirror last year's ugliness that played out for the world to see on Hard Knocks between Revis and Gang Green's front office.


There's no questioning Johnson needs a raise. He's set to make $800,000 this season after racking up nearly 5,500 total yards in three seasons, including a 2009 campaign where he joined the 2,000 yard rushing club. The Titans haven't made an offer yet, demanding that C.J. makes his way to camp before negotiating a new deal, are willing to offer their franchise back "top RB money", which would pay him somewhere in the ballpark of $10-to-12 million a year. Reportedly, Johnson turned his nose up at the idea, claiming that he deserves a salary that's less Adrian Peterson and more Peyton Manning.


That's where my issue with Johnson lies. Beyond kicker and punter, Chris Johnson plays the most replaceable position in pro football. The NFL has become a passing league, which is why guys like Manning and Tom Brady get top dollar and guys like Johnson get replaced after a few years. We're coming off a year in which the Super Bowl was won by a team with one of the worst rushing attacks in the league, led by a 7th rounder from Buffalo named James Starks who didn't even see action until Week 16. Prior to the Packers winning it all last season, the Saints won it all with an undrafted back out of Illinois named Pierre Thomas. Two of the three Patriots' Super Bowl wins were won with Antwoin Smith and Kevin Faulk toting the rock. An elite running back hasn't won a Super Bowl since Marshall Faulk did it with "The Greatest Show On Turf" in St. Louis back in 1999. Even with C.J.'s amazing first three years in Tennessee, the Titans have had won winning season, made the playoffs once and have won a total of ZERO playoff games. Your top five rushers from last season didn't win a playoff game last year, and five of the top eight didn't sniff the postseason. You think the Titans couldn't go 8-8 or 6-10(their record the past two seasons) with Javon Ringer as the lead back? Why should the Titans give "top playmaker money" to a guy that has lead them to 27 wins in three seasons? You know why Peyton and Brady get the big bucks? Because they get the big wins. You know why guys like Revis and Nnamdi Asomugha can nab $13 million a year from teams? Because defense wins championships and top-flight corners like Revis and Asomugha have a longer shelf life than running backs who barely make it past the age of 30. Which brings me to my next point......


The other concern is health. Johnson will be 26 this year and his game is solely based on his blazing speed. You want to give top dollar to a guy with maybe four years left in his prime and whose a torn ACL away from being finished? These concerns don't come without precedent. After leading the Falcons to an improbable Super Bowl run in 1998, Jamal Anderson held out of camp in an attempt to be compensated for his career year. When he finally suited up, Jam blew out his knee and was lost for the season. He never really recovered from the knee injury and the team went another route by signing Warrick Dunn away from Tampa Bay and drafting bruising T.J. Duckett in 2002. Terrell Davis, whom Anderson faced in that '98 Super Bowl, rushed for 2,000 yards en route to winning Denver's second-straight Super Bowl over Anderson's Falcons. The next year, T.D. blew out his knee and the Broncos found a slew of 1,000 yard backs from Olandis Gary to Mike Anderson to Clinton Portis in the years after parting ways with T.D. Let's say you give C.J. the $39 million guaranteed he's asking for and he tears his Achilles like so many seem to be doing this preseason? That's a huge chunk of your salary cap that could have went to other players that's now tied to dead weight. That brings me to what I call "The Alex Rodriguez Theory".


Back in 2000, the Texas Rangers signed Alex Rodriguez away from Seattle to the then-richest contract in history to the tune of $252 million over 10 years. Despite having the man regarded as the best player in baseball and someone who could eventually be the greatest hitter ever, the Rangers went nowhere, mainly because they had so much tied up in A-Rod, that they couldn't afford to put talent around him. Few years later, A-Rod was shipped to the Yankees and, just last year, the Rangers found themselves in the World Series. Baseball doesn't have a salary cap. Football does now, which makes the potential of giving such a large portion of the pie to one man so detrimental to the chances of building a Super Bowl champion. Talent-wise, the Titans don't have many "franchise" players beyond Chris Johnson. Sure, rookie QB Jake Locker could be one. Wideout Kenny Britt has potential to be one if he gets his head on straight. Safety Michael Griffin is one the game's most underrated defenders. The thing is, those guys are going to eventually want new contracts, too, and what leverage do you have to not pay those guys top dollar when you just gave "top playmaker money" to Johnson, let alone find room in the cap to give it to them. Championships are won by teams, not players. The Packers' lone "big signing" was Charles Woodson and Woodson's contract seems like pennies when compared to the deals given to some of his position peers. Even while emerging as one of the best QB's in the league, Aaron Rodgers still isn't making Peyton-Brady money. Drew Brees, who led the Saints to a Super Bowl a year ago, isn't making Peyton-Brady money. The Saints, themselves, aren't filled with prized free agents. You know who the teams that are filled with big-money free agents? The Jets and the Redskins. How many championships have THEY won in the last decade?


At the end of the day, Johnson doesn't have much leverage here. The Titans has proven it's just as capable of being a sad-sack franchise with him as they probably would be without him. It's hard to justify giving big money to a running back when teams don't run the ball anymore and even the most elite backs don't have a long shelf life. Just ask Jamal Lewis or Shaun Alexander or Clinton Portis. The case can be made that Johnson's not even the league's best back. That honor could go to the guy who currently IS being paid top running back money, Adrian Peterson. It's time for Johnson to let the greed go, swallow his pride and report to camp while he still has a job. No one man is bigger than the franchise and, after an offseason where the owners kowtowed to the union with a new player-friendly CBA, you have to think Bud Adams is not willing to cave twice in one season.

The question becomes: How stubborn is Johnson willing to become when history suggests the Titans will move on to the next one?

Monday, August 15, 2011

Are You New At This?

As exciting as the start of preseason football was for people like myself who have been salivating over the return of pro football, nothing got me as fired up as the story of Oklahoma State football coach Mike Gundy being sued by a contractor after said contractor was fired by Gundy for showing up to work in an Oklahoma shirt.

Gundy firing Brent Loveland was funny. Loveland's subsequent lawsuit is foolish. For one, as the cliche goes, you only get one chance to make a first impression. Who shows up to work on the home of a famous football coach wearing the rival school's t-shirt and expects that to be OK? Loveland would have been safer painting Denis Leary's house in a Bucky Dent jersey. Loveland's excuse was that he got dressed in the dark and was unaware of what he was wearing when he arrived at the Gundy residence, which may be the lamest excuse since the Robert Blake alibi. Who leaves their house and drives to work completely not knowing what they have on? My theory is Loveland intentionally wore the Oklahoma shirt in an attempt to be funny and wanted to see the reaction he would get from Gundy. I think he was thinking it would lead to a nice chuckle and a little playful ribbing. Instead, it lead to him getting tossed on his ass and the lawsuit is just a ploy to recoup some money(or, conspiracy theory #2, Loveland intentionally wore the shirt to goat Gundy into flipping his wig so that he could use said reaction as a way to get his name in the papers. However, a guy seeking only $10,000 in a lawsuit over a breach of a $80,000 job doesn't seem that cunning.).

This brings me to my next point. Since Loveland, allegedly, wasn't very attentive to his wardrobe, was he also unfamiliar with the man whom he agreed to work for? Had he never heard of Mike Gundy and, more importantly, Gundy's infamous temper? Mike Gundy's the same man who became a YouTube sensation with one of the greatest press conference meltdowns in sports history.....AND THAT WAS OVER A NEWSPAPER ARTICLE ON ONE OF HIS PLAYERS! The man is passionate about Oklahoma State football. He's a company man who is dedicated to his brand. Even Stevie Wonder could see that. You don't think he'd be a little ticked if you come into his house all Boomer Sooner?
Mr. Loveland, you have a better chance pitching me Casey Anthony as Mother of the Year or Amy Winehouse as a poster child for restraint than selling me your garbage excuse as to why one of the most volatile sports figures in college sports canned your ignorant ass and you'd have an even better chance surviving dinner at Bob Knight's house wearing a Neil Reed jersey than winning this worthless lawsuit you have out. Consider this a life lesson. You don't pull on Superman's cape. You don't spit in the wind and you don't come to Mike Gundy's house wearing Oklahoma red.
So, anybody out there who wants to be a comedian and get schooled by a famous college coach.....come at Mike Gundy. He's a man. He's 44.

Milk Carton All-Star of the Week: Bill Gramatica




For a kicker to be honored in the Milk Carton All-Star of the Week, he would have had to been someone who had a storied run before his career petered out or someone whose name rings bells because of an epic failure.


Bill Gramatica was the latter.


Bill Gramatica emerged onto the scene as the Frank Stallone of kickers. His brother, Martin(pronounced Mar-teen), was a Pro Bowl kicker in Tampa Bay and Bill was Martin's younger brother who went from playing soccer in Argentina to kicking at USF to getting a crack at the pros with Arizona. Bill was actually respectable as the Cardinals' big boot, going 16-20 his rookie year in 2001 and 15-21 his following year. Overall, Billy Boy would nail 77% of his field goals during his illustrious four-year career in the NFL with Arizona and Miami.

That's not why he finds himself being honored this week, however. Bill Gramatica is best known to football fans for taking a page out of his brother's book and celebrating like a mad man after a clutch field goal against the Giants and jumping up and down like an acrobat. What's the big deal with a kicker hot dogging a little after a big kick, you ask?


THE IDIOT TORE HIS ACL DURING THE CELEBRATION!
After his kick went through the uprights, Gramatica sprung in the air like Mary Lou Renner and landed like Keri Strugg. Almost instantaneously after sticking his landing was Gramtica lying on the ground in the Meadowlands in sheer agony, clutching his leg. The joy from the Giants fans in attendance, already surly over Gramatica's go-ahead 3-pointer and now celebratory after karma struck down a miniscule player trying to live up his 15 minutes, is evident in the clip on YouTube. It almost sounds like a cacophony of laughter. Bill would miss the rest of that season in 2003 and the Cardinals would go in a different direction at kicker, inevitably settling on Pro Bowler Neil Rackers. Gramatica got another gig with the Dolphins in '04 but only managed to play in 1 game(in which he went 3-for-3 on his attempts, but managed to miss an extra point). After that, his career was a wrap and he was forever known in the hearts of many as the guy who blew out his knee getting a little extra with his field goal celebration.


Last year, though, Gramatica got let off the hook a little bit by Los Angeles Angels first baseman Kendrys Morales. After hitting a walk-off grand slam(the first grand slam of his career) against the Mariners in May of 2010, Morales got overwhelmed with joy rounding third and started jumping up and down as he was mobbed at home plate. The only problem? Morales fractured his leg in the celebration and hasn't played a game since.


The jury is still out on just when Morales will return but, if he doesn't, his spot on the Milk Carton All-Star of the Week is pretty much solidified. For now, we'll give Bill Gramatica his last moments in the spotlights and pay homage to a guy who would have been better served just keeping his feet on the ground and reaching for the stars.

Monday, August 8, 2011

Fantasy Football Preview

The first NFL preseason game of the season is set to kick off Thursday which means, with the exception of those who couldn't resist the premature rush of football until the lockout actually ended, fantasy football drafts should be popping up like zits on a 14-year old girl's face sometime this month.

Now, I don't fancy myself as a fantasy "expert". Fantasy sports are as much a game of chance as they are a testament of knowledge. That being said, I have more fantasy league titles over the years than George Clooney has girlfriends. This being a sports blog and me being someone desperately looking for both something to write about and a chance to pat myself on the shoulder by serving up some early co-signings, I figure now is the chance to offer up some sound advice.


So, what I've decided to do is drop a few names of guys I'm either high on, low on or still finding myself on the fence on. Just as a head's up, the guys I'm "high" on are lower round guys whose production I believe will exceed their draft slot. The guys I'm "low" on are guys that will be taken early that I'm not quite sold on. I make this distinction because I know there will be one person who emails me asking why I'm not "high" on Adrian Peterson this year. The guys on the fence are players that have potential to be solid but have too many question marks to validate a complete co-sign.

Take my advice. Or don't. Life is about choices.


QUARTERBACKS

I'm High On........Josh Freeman, Buccaneers: Over the next few months, whether it be in my football previews or my weekly picks or anything NFL-related, you will notice a certian theme: I'm all in on the Bucs this year. I'm also riding shotgun on the Josh Freeman bandwagon. Freeman finished in the top 10 in touchdown passes last season, leading an offense that featured two rookie wideouts(Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn), an undrafted running back(LaGarrette Blount) and a veteran tight end who has a harder time staying healthy than Abe Vigoda(Kellen Winslow). This season, Freeman's third mind you, Josh and the boys are a year older and wiser, which means there's a chance the former K-State signal caller can top his 26 TD, 6 INT, 3, 451 yard 2010 campaign.

A couple other things helping Freeman's cause are this: His division doesn't really feature a tough defense. The Falcons don't have a pass rush beyond John Abraham. The Saints are improved on D and could give Freeman fits but that remains to be seen and the Panthers are, well, the Panthers. Translation: They suck. It also doesn't hurt that Freeman is 6'6, 248lbs. He's a big boy in the Ben Roethlisberger mold and has the quick feet to make some plays on the run. It also means his body can take the punishment of an NFL season, which is why I like him more than this next guy.......


I'm Low On........Michael Vick, Eagles: Mike Vick's comeback season last year was a great story and it will be great to watch on the big screen starring Idris Elba once Spike Lee acquires the rights to it. Still, I'm not ready to take Vick in the first round based off of one great season. For one, Vick's style of play is condusive to taking a lot of unneccesary hits and it doesn't help matters that he's with a head coach who loves to throw the ball. For those of you who can put two and two together, that means Vick is going to be dropping back a lot and making himself susceptible to a lot of guys trying to take his head off(in a division that features two of the best pass rushes in the league in New York and Dallas, I might add). The potential of Vick airing it out would be great if it wasn't offset by Vick's inability to stay healthy. As I mentioned in the Eagles piece a couple weeks ago, Vick has played a full season once and that was half a decade ago. If I'm investing a top pick into a quarterback, I want someone with a track record of being a little more sturdy.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying don't draft Mike Vick. But as it stands right now, I have Vick ranked seventh in my list of fantasy quarterbacks. I'm not touching him in the first three rounds. There aren't enough viable options at QB to roll the dice on Vick not getting hurt and there are far more valuable players at the top of the draft I'd rather have.

I'm High On........Tarvaris Jackson, Seahawks: Wait a minute! Hear me out! Obviously, I wouldn't try to coerse you into taking Tarvaris Jackson as your starting QB. However, take a long look at T-Jax's new situation in Seattle. The Seahawks used their two top picks to revamp the offensive line with tackle James Carpenter(who did a lot of run blocking for Heisman winner Mark Ingram at Alabama) and guard John Moffitt(who played at Wisconsin and we all know they like to pound the rock in the Big Ten) just a year after using a Top 10 pick on All-American tackle Russell Okung. On top of that, they signed former #2 overall pick Robert Gallery away from Oakland and reunited him with former coach Tom Cable. Behind that fortress of an O-Line, Jackson will be throwing to former Viking teammate Sidney Rice as well as fellow wideouts Golden Tate and Mike Williams. Still not impressed? How about the tight end tandem of John Carlson and another former Raider Pro Bowler, Zach Miller? Rice, Tate, BMW, Miller and Carlson in a division that features the Rams, Cardinals and Niners? That's not worth a last round flier? Would you really not take a chance on Jackson putting up at least 20 TD passes with THIS arsenal around him? Jackson's always had the arm and speed to be a poor man's Mike Vick. He just struggles with accuracy and never really had the backing behind him to be given a real chance. With only Charlie Whitehurst behind him, Jackson has that chance. He could make the most of it. So should you.

I'm Low On......Peyton Manning, Colts: Blasphemy, right? Here's something else that might make you test my sanity: I don't Peyton in my Top 5 of quaterbacks this year. Before you write me off, hear me out. Manning's coming off two neck surgeries this offseason. TWO! "But, Dave, what about the numbers he put up coming off knee surgery a couple years ago?". Duely noted. Lightning doesn't strike the same place twice. Eventually, Father Time kicks in and the rust on the iron suits of these gladiators. We saw it with Tom Brady. We saw it with Brett Favre. The injury bug will get to Peyton Manning eventually, and what better year for it to happen than this year? Besides the two neck surgeries, which should scare you more than an immobile quarterback getting his knee operated on, Manning will be asking two asking two rookies to watch his back at left and right tackle. Now, I liked Anthony Castonzo coming out of BC but the lockout has reduced any optimism of a rookie being able to come in and having an immediate impact. The same goes for Ben Ijalana, the second rounder projected to start at right tackle or guard this season. Manning has had good fortune with the guys watching his blind side from Tarik Glenn to Tony Ugoh to Charlie Johnson.

The latter flew the coup to Minnesota, leaving the left tackle job to Castonzo. With the way the Colts pass the ball(mainly because of Peyton but also because they can't run the ball), you wanna trust Manning staying upright with a rookie having to adjust to the pros in three weeks before the regular season kicks off with no OTAs or anything? That remains to be seen. What about Manning's weapons though? Sure, he's made due with no-names before but look at this cast of characters. Reggie Wayne is going to be solid, because he's Reggie Wayne and he's playing for a new contract. The others though? Pierre Garcon took a step back last year. Austin Collie is nursing a season that saw him recieve about 65 concussions. Tight end Dallas Clark is coming off a season-ending injury. Anthony Gonzalez can't stay healthy. These are the guys expecting to bail out the "least sackable quarterback in the game" while he's relying on guys like Castonzo and Ijalana to watch his back.

Like with Vick, I'm not saying don't draft Peyton. He's had 4,000 yards every season but two since 1998. He's a machine, but machines inevitably break down. He's not super human. Like Vick, I'm not touching Peyton in the first three rounds, maybe not even in the first four. Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Rivers, Schaub.....in that order, would all be better picks than Manning this year. I've bet against Peyton and been wrong before but Manning can't spit in the face of fate forever.


On The Fence: Kevin Kolb, Cardinals: I never bought into Kevin Kolb as the savior in Philadelphia and I'm still not that sold on him in the desert. Kolb's career numbers in Philly(2,032 yards, 11 TDs, 14 INTs in 20 games) weren't exactly awe-inspiring. Now, he's in Arizona, playing behind an offensive line that gave up the third most sacks in the league and who still have yet to find a proven runner to carry the ground game. Those are the negatives.

These are the positives. Kolb gets to play pitch-and-catch with one of the game's best wideouts in Larry Fitzgerald, who still managed to put up solid numbers despite hauling in passes from guys like Max Hall and John Skelton. Kolb's an upgrade over those guys, obviously, so stock in Fitz should go up too. Kolb also gets to feast on the worst division in football, the NFC West. Seattle, San Francisco, St. Louis.....there isn't a dominant defense in the bunch. The only downside is Kolb can't play against his own defense, which might be the worst of the four.


The bottom line is this: Kolb comes to Arizona with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove after going from McNabb's heir apparent to Vick's caddy. But after a productive career at the University of Houston, he's proven to be nothing more than a checkdown champion, a dink and dunk specialist of Rich Gannon preportions. Granted, that style got Gannon and MVP once, but times have changed since 2002. Playing behind this shaky offensive line, it remains to be seen if Kolb can have time to find Fitzgerald deep, especially since Fitzgerald doesn't have Steve Breaston or Anquan Boldin anymore on the other side to take pressure off him. For Kolb to be everything Andy Reid thought he was when he took him in the 2nd round of '07, everything has to fall into place with his new squad, which is why Kolb's worth a flier as a poor man's Kurt Warner but carries the caution of a Matt Leinart 2.0.


RUNNING BACKS


I'm High On........Mike Tolbert, Chargers: Tolbert's coming off a season where he racked up 735 yards and 11 TD's in relief for San Diego last season after Ryan Mathews failed to amaze in his rookie season. Well, that same Ryan Mathews failed his conditioning test and, making matters better for Tolbert, Darren Sproles is now a New Orleans Saint. That pretty much makes the starting job Tolbert's to lose and the former fullback proved in his 182 carries last season that he can handle the job.

Now, Norv Turner came out recently and declared he's going with a two running back approach with Tolbert and Mathews, but I still remain undeterred in co-signing Tolbert and here's why: In a lot of ways, he's this year's Peyton Hillis. He's a big guy(5'9, 243), which means he won't sitting on the bench when it's goal-line time and, with only Mathews in his way, there's not much standing between him and a career year. The passing attack led by Phillip Rivers will make opposing defenses respect the run and AFC West is littered with terrible run defenses that Tolbert will get to feast on six times this season. Is he a fantasy starter right off the back? Maybe not, because the team still has a lot invested in Mathews, but as a late-round, injury insurance backup type? He's definitely worth a shot. If Tolbert's getting nearly 800 yards on half a season's worth of carries, imagine what he can do with a full year as "The Man".

I'm Low On......LeSean McCoy, Eagles: It seems like I throw a lot of hatred Philly's way but I assure you I have no bias against "The City of Brotherly Love". I just have a hard time buying a scat back who barely eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark as someone worthy of a first round pick as many have made him in mocks I've seen. I was already skeptic of Shady's potential in Year 2 as the Eagles' lead back before the team signed Ronnie Brown. With Brown in the fold, that means McCoy is relegated to working between the 20's and watching Brown vulture away his goal-line touches. It doesn't help that the Eagles throw the ball somewhere between 60-65% of the time and play in a defense stout against the run(well, except Washington).

McCoy could be a newer, younger version of Brian Westbrook, the guy he was drafted to replace and whose style he practically emulates, and his high draft slot may be more of a projection from those who think McCoy will duplicate what his successor did. I'm not sold yet. I'm not ready to use a first on McCoy and, really, I'm not ready to make him my #1 back. You can talk me into taking him at the top of the 2nd if you're pairing him with a Rashard Mendenhall or Frank Gore in the first, but Brown's presence and Philly's style of play make him a shaky top choice to me.


I'm High On.....Tim Hightower, Redskins: Fantasy Rule #1 has always been to remain cautious of drafting a Mike Shanahan running back because Shanny likes to mix up his rushers like Vin Baker likes to mix his drinks. Truth be told, Washington's lead back could be Ryan Torain. It could be Roy Helu. It could be Evan Royster. Hell, Shanahan could even bring Clinton Portis back. Hightower has the most potential of the group because his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield makes him more of an every-down back than, say, Torain(who is projected to be the leader in the clubhouse for the starting gig). Let's face it, if Shanahan and the 'Skins had faith that Torain was their guy, they would have traded for Hightower when they already drafted Helu and Royster.

Talent will eventually win out and that means the job is Hightower's to lose. The knock on Hightower is he has an acute case of fumblitis which, as we saw with Shanahan disciple Gary Kubiak and RB Steve Slaton in Houston, is a quick way to land in the doghouse. Recently, the former Richmond Spider got a vigourous co-sign from OC Kyle Shanahan, which means we could see Hightower as the Week 1 starter at RB. If so, Hightower's worth a late-round flier simply based on the vaunted history of the Shanahan system and its productivity with the run game and also because Timmy will be playing with a chip on his shoulder after being exiled from the desert. Take a chance on Timmy.....but be mindful of your lineup before kickoff.


I'm Low On......Peyton Hillis, Browns: Two words.....Madden Curse.


On The Fence: LaGarrette Blount, Bucs - Blount is going to get his share of love based on last season when he went from black-balled malcontent to undrafted feel-good story who led all rookie backs in rushing. Now that he opens the season as the top dog, the sky is the limited for the former erstwhile Oregon Duck. My concern isn't whether I think Blount will be good. With his size and speed and with Cadillac Williams gone, I think he'll be fine. My issue is he's a modern day Rudi Johnson: a one-dimensional, two-down power back. LaGarrette struggled with pass-blocking last season and, given that Tampa is going to want to air it out more with the continued development of Josh Freeman as a passer and the extreme caution the team will have in protecting Freeman because of what his health means to their success, Blount is going to find himself on the sidelines on third down. That doesn't mean he won't rack up big numbers as the Bucs' only real option at running back. It just means his growth will be stunted by the team's lack of faith in him on passing downs which, thus, should stunt your faith in investing too high a pick for him.


WIDE RECEIVERS


I'm High On.......Chad Ochocinco, Patriots: The transformation in Cincinnati from a young, promising team with a promising passing attack to a band of miscreants hell-bent on slowing down opponents with a ground-and-pound running game has left Chad Ochocinco for dead the last couple of years. Ochocinco went from averaging 90 catches a season from 2003 to 2007, to racking up 72 and 53 receptions, respectively, in the past two seasons.

Now, he finds himself in Beantown motivated to prove himself with the Patriots and catching passes from Tom Brady(who resurrected Randy Moss' career a few years ago). Chad's always been a great route runner with excellent hands and it's no secret New England likes to throw the ball. With Wes Welker and Deion Branch also on the roster and Brady's tendency to spread it out, it might be far-fetched to expect Chad's numbers to equal those of Moss' first few years in New England. However, ESPN currently has the former Bengal listed 35th in its WR rankings behind guys like Mike Thomas, Johnny Knox and what's left of Austin Collie. I'd take Ocho over all three of them. You're going to want to bench him for those two games against the Jets when he finds himself stranded on Revis Island but Ochocinco has more value this year than he's had in in the last couple of seasons. I'm banking on a comeback year for 85.

I'm Low On......Kenny Britt, Titans: Oh, how it hurts to slander a former Scarlet Knight. As great as watching Britt emerge as Tennessee's top receiving threat was for a Rutgers fan like myself, there's no escaping this one undeniable flaw with Kenny B: He's a fucking knucklehead. During the lockout, Britt did his damnedest to be the threat to the U.S. crime rate that Ray Lewis warned about. From assualt charges to speeding tickets to DUIs to any number of the litany of scrapes with the law Britt found himself in these recent months, Britt has become Pacman Jones 2.0.

Look, you can't just find guys 6'3, 215 pounds with Britt's kind of speed, athleticism and hands, but the man has million dollar talent and a ten cent brain between his ears. Rolling the dice on Kenny Britt is a hell of a gamble. For one, you're hoping the team or Roger Goodell doesn't strike down on Britt for his indescretions. Second, you're hoping he learns from his mistakes. Third, there are reports that new QB Matt Hasselbeck is struggling to learn the new offense, so you're, thus, hoping that he can build a rapport with his wayward top target by the start of the season. Lastly, you're hoping he can stay healthy. Last season, Britt missed four games with an Achilles' injury and since he's spent more time this offseason in lockout than in a gym, you wonder if his body is physically prepared for a grueling season.

Britt is the Titans' best, and probably only, option in the passing game and that alone is going to warrant a look. However, ESPN has Britt 20th among fantasy wideouts, ahead the likes of Sidney Rice(who I like a lot this year), Malcolm Floyd and the aforementioned Chad Ochocinco. He's the quintessential high-risk, high-reward guy but there are far too many red flags to take Britt unless you can get him on the cheap.


I'm High On......Roy Williams, Bears: Yes, I'm putting stock in Ol' Stonehands. A couple of things to consider before poo-pooing this choice. Williams' lone Pro Bowl season came in Detroit when his offensive coordinator was former Rams guru Mike Martz. Roy's new OC in Chi-Town? You guessed it: Mike Martz. Second, have you seen the Bears' other wideouts? Johnny Knox and Devin Hester are nice, speedy, young wideouts but they aren't #1 options. Jay Cutler isn't going to have much time to throw, so his first choice is not going to be sit in the pocket and wait for Devin Hester on a go route. It's going to be find Roy on a curl or a quick slant. Williams is the more proven route runner and his size(6'4, 214) makes him valuable in the red zone, especially with Greg Olsen gone.


Sure, Williams' hands of concrete would scare off many but Roy wasn't always football's version of Roberto Duran. Chicago's giving him a fresh start and another crack at being the man. At the tail end of the draft, you should, too.


I'm Low On.......Plaxico Burress, Jets: Here's a bet you can take to the bank: People are going to take a chance on Plax thinking he has some of that Mike Vick prison magic in him. He doesn't. For those with short memories, it took Vick nearly two years to regain his form after signing with Philadelphia out of prison. On top of that, Vick was 29 when he signed and had speed BEFORE going away. Burress has never had speed and, making matters worse, he just turned 34. How much faith you put in a 34-year old possession receiver who hasn't ran a route or taken a hit in two years to come back and be a formidable option again? I know we want to believe Plax is the latest feel-good, comeback story but I'm taking a "believe it when I see it" approach with the former Giant. At 6'6, 230, he has value as a red zone target for Mark Sanchez but, like with most ex-cons, you're going to want to see how he adjusts to life outside the box before you invest your faith in him.


I'm High On......Jacoby Ford, Raiders: At 5'9 185lbs, Ford isn't much to get excited about......until you see the kid run. Ford's 25 catches for 470 yards and 2 scores in his rookie campaign last year is pedestrian at best but it's also a start to something. Take a long look at Oakland's depth chart at wide receiver. Jason Campbell has to throw to SOMEBODY, right? Darrius Heyward-Bey has bust written all over him. Louis Murphy can't stay healthy. Tight end Zach Miller is gone. Lost in all that mediocrity is the reports that Ford's worked his way into the lineup as Oakland's #2 wideout. Does that mean he's a viable fantasy starter? Not really, but he's a speedy home-run threat who returned three kicks back for touchdowns last year. Could he be a poor man's Devin Hester? Absolutely. In a league that pays homage to returners, Ford's definitely worth a sniff and what do you possibly lose if he manages to become a better receiver while getting more reps in the starting lineup?


I'm Low On.......ALL ROOKIE WIDEOUTS: I mentioned this earlier and I'll repeat it again: The lockout did rookies no favors this season and the lack of time to get assimilated puts every rook behind the eight ball. Sure, in keeper leagues, you're gonna want A.J. Green or Julio Jones going forward, but this season? Color me skeptical. Last year, with a full season of workouts, OTAs, training camp and preseason, no rookie wideout eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark and the only first-year guy to make a dent was Mike Williams. That's WITH a full season of practices. Green, in particular, is not only having to learn the new offense in Cincy but having to catch passes from a fellow rookie in Andy Dalton. Julio Jones might be lighting it up in camp but it remains to be seen what he can do when the games count. Rookie wideouts who get drafted high in the actual draft tend to get drafted higher than they need to be in fantasy draft. With so many behind the learning curve, this should be the year that trend gets bucked. Like with Plaxico, rookie wideouts need a wait-and-see approach before diving in this year. We saw Mike Williams hit the rookie wall in the second half last year. What can we really expect from noobs who waited in limbo all summer?


ON THE FENCE: Michael Crabtree, 49ers - Whether it's a contract holdout or an injury, Michael Crabtree just can't stop missing training camp. The former Texas Tech standout showed promise after a rookie campaign two years ago that saw him come in six weeks into the regular season and catch 48 passes for 625 yards and two scores despite barely knowing the offense. That lead some to believe he'd bust loose over the course of a full season in Year 2. Instead, his numbers last season were only marginally better than his rookie stats, scoring 6 touchdowns but only catching 7 more passes for just under 120 more yards. This season, it took Crabtree all of a week to suffer a foot injury that will have him out for the entire preseason.


Crabtree clearly could use the extra time to learn new head coach Jim Harbaugh's scheme but his prior track record of being able to play on the fly somewhat lessens the blow of yet another lost preseason. Another positive note is Crab finally has a tag team partner to take pressure off him: new acquisition Braylon Edwards. The Edwards-Crabtree-Vernon Davis triumvant would give me a reason to feel good about Alex Smith's chances of breaking out if he wasn't, well, Alex Smith. Crabtree is supposed to be back by Week 1 and the old NFL theory is that young wideouts make their biggest breakthrough in Year 3. With Edwards on the other side, Davis over the middle and defenses needing to respect Frank Gore running the ball, everything is lined up for Crabtree to have the year many have anticipated, especially in this division. Still, he's never been one to avoid the injury bug and the last two years have been as much a story of false hope as a reason for optimism.


TIGHT ENDS


I'm High On......Greg Olsen, Panthers: When Greg Olsen was drafted out of "The U" five years ago, it was understood that, while talented, he wasn't on par with his Hurricane tight end successors in Jeremy Shockey and Kellen Winslow Jr. Olsen hasn't been a slouch either, just under-utilized. Olsen's best year came in 2009 when he reeled in 60 passes for 612 yards for 6 scores. The next season, the Bears hired Mike Martz to run the O and Martz cares as much about using the tight end as Casey Anthony cares about child care. The result was Olsen's worst season since his rookie campaign. However, things are looking up for Greg as he finds himself in Carolina now after a offseason trade. The Panthers' new system features a lot of two-tight end looks, which gives reasons for optimism to like Olsen this year even with the presence of another big name at his position. Why be so optimistic, you ask? Because that other big name is one of Olsen's aforementioned successors, Jeremy Shockey. Shockey has always been a supremely talented tight end and there's reasons to like him a lot this year as well, but the kid hasn't met an injury he couldn't sustain. In 10 seasons, Shockey's never played a full season and there's no reason to think that streak stops this year. That means more looks for Olsen.


Another sign pointing towards more work for Olsen: The Panthers, at some point, will be unveiling #1 overall pick Cam Newton as their guy at QB. Who's a rookie QB's best friend? The tight end. Even if Newton doesn't start right away, incumbant Jimmy Clausen is bound to show Olsen some love with Steve Smith recovering from a broken finger and David Gettis done for the year with a torn ACL. Olsen's not the speediest of tight ends so fantasizing about some kind of Mark Bavarro/Antonio Gates long, bruising, punishing touchdown runs will be just that, a fantasy, but he's a big target with reliable hands, a chip on his shoulder and no healthy competition in front of him. Those ingredients make for something very dangerous.


I'm Low On.........Owen Daniels, Texans: I never really understood the hype behind Owen Daniels. Yes, he's a solid tight end in a pass-first offense but he hasn't scored more than five touchdowns since his rookie year in 2006 and he's been hurt for the better part of the last two seasons. Now, I'm supposed to believe he's a top five fantasy tight end, ESPN? Based on what exactly? At 6'3, Daniels has always been a bit short for the position and you have to think that the red zone looks that used to be Daniels now belong to either the more reliable Andre Johnson or last year's breakout star, RB Arian Foster. Daniels is a nice option and, given the lack of depth at tight end, definitely worth starting but I have my doubts of even putting him in my top 10. If I'm taking a chance on an injury-prone tight end who used to be viable option, I like Todd Heap returning home in Arizona. Hell, I'd rather wait on a Heath Miller or Dustin Keller or take a chance on Jermaine Gresham or Tony Moeaki. I think this is Daniels' last season of relevance and, if I had to place a bet, I don't think it will be a good one.



ON THE FENCE: Todd Heap, Cardinals - Like Daniels, it's tough to get excited for someone with a well-documented injury history like Todd Heap's. Granted, Heap's played a full 16 in two of the last three years and he did find the end zone six times in 2009 for Baltimore, but the frequency of him getting hurt scares me from being too thrilled with his new digs in Arizona. Heap's going from a situation where he got a few looks in a smashmouth offense with the Ravens to probably being the #2 option with the Cardinals. Helping Heap's cause is new QB Kevin Kolb's infamy as a checkdown champion. Heap is going to see a lot of action his way because of Kolb's happy feet and quick fire arm and he'll be a smash hit after an illustrious career at Arizona State. The key is Heap staying healthy, which is something he has the tendency to struggle with. He'll also lose red zone looks to acrobat Larry Fitzgerald and bruising back Beanie Wells. Still, beyond Fitzy, Arizona doesn't have many other options and if Heap can stay on the field(BIG IF), he's a decent sleeper playing in familiar territory.



SOME SIDE NOTES:
*I didn't write about Defenses/Special Teams because, with the exception of top three or four, they are mostly the same and they really hold little significance to a fantasy outcome. I've lost quite a few leagues with Baltimore or Pittsburgh as my defense and won a few with teams like San Francisco. Is it better to have the Ravens than, say, the Lions as your team D? Yes. Does it matter that much? No. Like kickers, they are bonus points holding down a starting slot. If I need to tell you which defense is good and which isn't, you probably shouldn't be playing fantasy football.

*A couple of situations that intrigue me a little but not enough to require a full write-up. If Willis McGahee can stay healthy, I like his chances to return to form under John Fox in Denver. Willis was always a good back. He just happened to get hurt in Baltimore and then got Wally Pipp'd by Ray Rice. With another chance and only Knowshon Moreno in front of him, he's worth a look. I also love, love, LOVE Lee Evans in Baltimore now. The Ravens don't have a speed receiver besides rookie Torrey Smith and Smith was underwhelming in his preseason debut as he still learns the offense. Evans could be huge as Flacco's #2 behind Anquan Boldin. Packers tight end Jermichael Finley narrowly missed my "On The Fence" spot. We all thought he would break out last year and he got hurt. The stats aren't really there to warrent taking him high and he's competing for looks in an offense that's four wide receivers deep, but if he drops, take him.

*As much as it pains me to say it, I like Tim Tebow this year. Not as a fantasy starter, obviously, but I think the Broncos want him to be their guy and that really sucks for Kyle Orton, who deserves to be the man somewhere, too. Tebow's a great leader, can make plays with his feet and he's tough to bring down. The throwing motion sucks and he'll never be a 300 yards and 4 scores, Daunte Culpepper-type, but I think he can be decent if given the reigns.


*Because my friend Carlos might read this, I'll repeat this once again: Mike Tolbert is going to be nasty this year. Better than Shonn Greene. Better than Beanie Wells. Better than Felix Jones. He's a somewhere between "Lawfirm" Benjarvus Green-Ellis and Peyton Hillis. Consider yourself warned.

*Reggie Bush is the starting running back in Miami and only rookie Daniel Thomas stands in his way. Could be interesting for Mr. 4-to-6 weeks.

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Milk Carton All-Star of the Week: Vin Baker




For many younger, avid basketball fans, the first thing you think of when you hear the name "Vin Baker" is the hefty big man who was more Jack Daniels than Jack Ramsey. Those in the Gabe-Dave demographic, Vin Baker was a beast in the paint in caught wreck in the mid-90's with Milwaukee and later with Seattle. Today, we remember the man who took as many shots as he made.


With the 8th overall pick in the 1993 NBA Draft, the Milwaukee Bucks took a chance on a lanky, unheralded power forward out of infamous pro factory, Hartford University, named Vin Baker. Other fun characters from that famed '93 Draft: J.R. Rider, Nick Van Exel and perhaps two of the ugliest men in NBA history, Gheorghe Muresan and Sam Cassell. Baker was named to the All-Rookie first team after a debut season that saw him average 13.5 points and nearly 8 boards per game. Baker would step it up the next season, averaging a double-double with 17.7 points and 10.7 rebounds in '94. Big Vin would follow up his sophomore season with the two best seasons of his career, averaging 21 and 10 in '95 and '96 while being named to the first two of four straight All-Star appearances. Just before the '97 season, however, Milwaukee shipped Baker to Seattle in a three-team trade that saw the Bucks get back Tyrone Hill and Terrell Brandon, Cleveland acquire serial baby maker Shawn Kemp and the statistically irrelevant Sherman Douglas. Baker's numbers in Seattle weren't on par with his run with the Bucks but they weren't far off, as he would make two more All-Star appearances in '96 and '97 and get his first taste of the playoffs. Still, after four years in Seattle, the Sonics would deal Baker to Boston along with Shammond Williams in exchange for Kenny Anderson(whose ex-wife, Tami, you might recognize as the token loud crazy bitch on the ridiculously unbearable reality show "Basketball Wives" on VH1), Tarheel bust Joe Forte and prototypical stiff Vitaly Potapenko.


While his 15 and 8 in Beantown was respectable, Baker would perfect more than his post game while in Boston. During a lockout-shortened season in '98, his weight exploded to around 300 pounds. Baker would inevitably get his weight down to the 250 range but not before admitting to being a recovering alcoholic who would binge drink after bad games. The Celtics suspended Baker for showing up drunk to practice and eventually was released. The New York Knicks, who never met a bad penny they could resist attempting to polish, took a chance on Baker later that year and Baker and the Knicks would stumble into the playoffs. Midway through the next season in 2005, the Knicks dealt Baker to Houston along with Moochie Norris, Norris' afro and a 2006 2nd round pick that turned into generic white point guard Steve Novak. The Rockets would send back undersized nobody Maurice Taylor. Six months later, Houston cut him and he was picked up by the Clippers. After a brief run as a reserve in L.A., Baker took one last shot to remain relevant by signing with Minnesota but was released after six games.


In his 13 year career, Baker finished with an average of 16.6 points and 8.2 boards.


So, let's give a round of applause for the hungover Chris Webber, Vin Baker, everybody!