Playoffs?
AFC East: New England Patriots
Why: Barring injuries, the Patriots walking away with yet another AFC East crown is the biggest lock of any of the 12 available playoff spots. Tom Brady and Co. have run roughshod over the division for nearly two decades and that task becomes easier when the opposing QBs are two rookies (Josh Allen of the Bills, Sam Darnold of the Jets) and a guy coming off a torn ACL (Miami’s Ryan Tannehill). Even at 41, Brady is still a Top-2 NFL QB and should put together another MVP caliber season with the whitest weapons the league has seen in a half century (RB Rex Burkhead, TE Rob Gronkowski, WRs Chris Hogan and Julien Edelman).
Cause for Concern: Dating back to the first Super Bowl loss to the New York Giants, the blueprint to stop the Patriots has been putting Brady under pressure and New England’s offensive line leaves much to be desired. Left tackle Nate Solder left in free agency and potential rookie replacement Isaiah Wynn is already done for the year with a torn Achilles. Brady has managed to side-step pass-rushes for years with a quick release and knowing when to get rid of the ball, but this is the worst offensive line he’s ever been behind and he’s not exactly mobile.
Furthermore, a Pats defense that was shredded in last season’s Super Bowl didn’t add much beyond CB Jason McCourty, NT Danny Shelton and DE Adrian Clayborn. All three are decent role players but none should be mistaken for stars.
Bottom line: Even with potential red flags on the offensive line and on defense, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is crafty enough to navigate through a AFC East still in transition. As long as he and Brady can co-exist, they’re a guaranteed 10+ wins and a threat for the top seed in the AFC. The real challenge will come when they face teams that can actually fight back in the postseason.
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
Why: Much like the Patriots in the East, this has more to do with a lack of in the rest of the division than any belief in the Steelers. Still, it’s hard to overlook what Pittsburgh has at its disposal on offense. RB Le’Veon Bell, if or when he ends his holdout, will resume his case for being the league’s top back and most versatile weapon. QB Ben Roethlisberger, even at 36, is still among the league’s better passers and he’ll have a dynamic duo in Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster to throw to. The offensive line, once a problem area, is now a position of strength thanks to guys like David DeCastro and Maurkice Pouncey. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley, who butted heads with his star QB and whose play-calling drove Steelers Nation crazy, is now in Cleveland and replaced by longtime assistant Randy Fichtner.
Cause for Concern: This isn’t your father or grandfather’s Steel Curtain. Hell, this isn’t even your older brother’s Steel Curtain. The days of Blitzburgh wreaking havoc with names like Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Casey Hampton, etc are over. With rising star LB Ryan Shazier’s future still in question after a scary spinal injury, the linebacking core is a question mark and could affect the team’s ability to stop the run. The team did lead the league in sacks last year, thanks in large part to DE Cam Hayward’s 12, but it will be interesting to see if anyone besides Ironhead’s son steps up to keep that pass-rush dangerous. The secondary is also relying a lot on aging-but-still-solid corner Joe Haden and free agent acquisition Morgan Burnett.
Bottom Line: The Steelers reign at the top of the North isn’t as assured as New England’s in the East. Baltimore is always ready for war with Pittsburgh. Cleveland has its best roster since returning to the league. Cincinnati is....well, Cincinnati is not a threat.
Also, if you’re into superstitions or bad vibes, you help but think there’s a black cloud heading towards Pittsburgh. While waiting for a new deal, Le’Veon Bell has been working on his rap career and telling anyone who listens he’s done with the Steelers after this season. Antonio Brown is the latest target of the dreaded Madden Curse. Big Ben has talked retirement for the past two seasons. The defense, while formidable, isn’t very deep. The Steelers are balanced enough to be a contender, but there’s enough red flags to also make them a fall-off candidate.
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars
Why: Over a decade of mediocrity allowed the Jags to finally turn all those high draft picks into a promising unit last season. Thanks to a stellar defense, the Jags took their first division title, smacked Pittsburgh in the mouth in the playoffs and were a couple plays away from the Super Bowl. RB Leonard Fournette didn’t have the rookie campaign many expected but still became the first Jacksonville 1,000 yard rusher since Maurice Jones-Drew due to sheer volume and the team’s commitment to smash mouth football. With G Andrew Norwell coming over from Carolina, the former LSU stud should improve upon last year’s 3.9 yards per carry.
Jacksonville’s vaunted defense, led by mouthy star corner Jalen Ramsey and the deepest defensive line in football, returns mostly intact, save for the loss of retired LB Paul Posluzny and corner Aaron Colvin. They did add DT Taven Bryan, who drew comparisons to J.J. Watt, in the draft. This should continue to be the strength of a Jags team that won’t go away.
Cause for Concern: Ummm....their starting QB is Blake Bortles. That’s it. That’s the list. This team is literally a competent QB away from owning the AFC. If you want to nitpick, a WR core that just lost Marquise Lee to a knee injury leaves much to be desired but it’s hard to really be a standout receiver with a QB who struggles to complete 60 percent of his throws. DeDe Westbrook, Keelan Cole and Donte Moncrief aren’t stars but they’re capable. Newly signed TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins has the tools, but can’t seem to stay out of trouble.
Bottom Line: We’ve seen great defenses overcome shoddy QB play to win titles before: the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs, 2015 Broncos are recent examples. But none of those QBs were as bad as Bortles. There’s a reason the AFC has been run by guys like Brady, Manning and Roethlisberger for the last two decades. They know how to put points on the board. If Bortles can be even above average, the Jags could be champs, but there’s been nothing in the past five years to suggest he’ll live up to his potential. Still, the defense and run game are good enough to nab the division and make another postseason run.
AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers
Why: QB Phillip Rivers has spent the last 14 years trying to keep up with 2004 draftmates Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger (two Super Bowl rings a piece) and this may be his best chance at joining the ranks as champion. Rivers will command an air-it-out offense that includes reception monster Keenan Allen, speedster Tyrell Williams and the aging-but-effective Antonio Gates. Last season’s first-round pick Mike Williams is also a breakout candidate after missing almost all of last year with a back injury. At 6’4, the former Clemson star gives Rivers another big option in the red zone, and if he can stay healthy, he can make good on his lost debut season. TE Hunter Henry went down early with a torn ACL, which necessitated bringing Gates back, but the Chargers are holding out hope he can be back by the playoffs.
On the ground, Melvin Gordon shook off a tough rookie season and has developed into one of the league’s best backs. He’ll also run behind the best line of his career, bolstered by the acquisition of C Mike Pouncey and the return of G Forrest Lamp.
Lastly, there’s Gus Bradley’s vaunted defense, led by the defensive line tag team champs: Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Bosa tallied nearly 100 tackles last season and he and Ingram combined for 23 sacks. Their presence creates havoc and makes life easier for Pro Bowl CB Casey Hayward and potential stud S Derwin James.
Cause for Concern: We seem to go down this road every year with the Chargers. Every year, they look like Super Bowl contenders. Every year, injuries knock them back down to reality. Bad luck cost a franchise that should’ve been a dynasty with stars like Rivers, Gates, LaDainian Tomlinson, Shawne Merriman and Eric Weddle on its roster.
This season has already taken its toll on the team. Henry went down almost as soon as OTAs started and CB Jason Verrett wasn’t far behind him. Henry might return. Verrett won’t and the Chargers don’t have a Hall of Famer like Gates to fill in for the latter.
The run defense is also a concern, especially with DT Corey Liuget suspended for the first four games and a ho-hum linebacking core. The team was 31st against the run last season, giving up 131 yards per game, and there’s nothing to suggest that area will get exponentially better.
Bottom Line: If the injury bug can quit feasting on the Chargers, this team can go places, but history makes it hard to ever fully trust them. The Chiefs, even with all of their off-season changes, will be nipping at their heels and the Broncos can’t be completely counted out after a good draft.
The bright side is Rivers, even at 36, is one of the league’s most durable QB’s and his arm gives the Chargers a chance that luck refuses to hand them.
Wild Card: Houston Texans
Why: Don’t look now, but the AFC South suddenly looks like the toughest division in football. The Jaguars are coming off a surprise trip to the AFC Championship. The Colts will finally have Andrew Luck back under center and the Titans are seemingly always the sexy preseason sleeper pick.
Then, there’s the Texans, who have a ton of talent and even more bad luck.
On paper, a team with three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt, athletic pass-rushing dynamo Jadaveon Clowney, promising dual threat QB DeShaun Watson and star WR DeAndre Hopkins should be a Super Bowl contender. The team also added another playmaker on defense in S Tyrann “Honey Badger” Mathieu and will pair him with promising third-round rookie Justin Reid.
However, Watt hasn’t been able to stay healthy for the past two seasons, Watson is coming off a torn ACL and Clowney hasn’t had that breakout season yet.
Still, if the roster can stay healthy, the talent is there to give them the edge over the rest of the pack.
Cause for Concern: As if pinning their hopes to the healthy returns of Watt and Watson wasn’t enough to put a pit in Houston’s stomach, the Texans will field the league’s worst offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus. The running game will be lead by Lamar Miller, who hasn’t really made his mark in Houston and will now find open holes hard to come by.
The Texans also didn’t do much to build a contingency plan behind its injured stars. If Watson goes down again, the offense will be in the hands of Brandon Weeden. Yes, that Brandon Weeden. While the pressure to hold down the defensive fort will be on Clowney’s shoulders if injuries continue to derail Watt’s Hall of Fame career.
Bottom Line: If they can keep their stars healthy, Houston has just as much of a chance at a division title and playoff run as Jacksonville does. Watson was a shoe-in for ROY honors before blowing out his knee. If he can stay on the field, he’s a perennial Pro Bowler and possible MVP contender. Watt and Clowney are a nightmare to gameplan against, and LB Whitney Mercilus could join them on the list of guys who keep coaches up at night. Miller, while unspectacular, can be workmanlike if the line can give him room to run. Hopkins leads a receiving core that also contains deep threat Will Fuller, who developed a strong chemistry with Watson last season.
The skids are greased for a Houston come-up, but one setback will knock them right back down the hill.
Wild Card: Denver Broncos
Why: I had a really hard time with this one because you can talk yourself into a half dozen teams just as easily as you can talk yourself out of them. My belief in Denver is two-fold:
First, while not a world-beater, Case Keenum is a serviceable starting QB (and if he’s not, I still really like Chad Kelly, nephew of Hall of Famer Jim Kelly). He was good enough to lead the Vikings to the NFC Championship last season (thanks to a great defense and bad tackling by New Orleans, but whatever), and I think it says something that Denver bypassed a QB-heavy draft to keep their faith in him.
Second, I liked what Denver did on draft day. Bradley Chubb on the other side of Von Miller is going to be a problem for opposing passing games. Royce Freeman, Oregon’s all-time leading rusher, has shown flashes of greatness in the preseason and could breathe life back into the running game. WR Courtland Sutton is a Demaryius Thomas clone who will eventually replace the real Demaryius Thomas. The loss of CB Aqib Talib hurts but Chris Harris and Bradley Roby are a good duo who will benefit from QBs not having a ton of time to throw.
Beyond that, Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are a solid 1-2 punch at WR and they’ll catch passes from a QB not named Tebow, Lynch or Siemien.
Cause for Concern: As good as Denver’s draft looks on paper, it’s a gamble to trust anything John Elway has done on draft day. The team just cut Paxton Lynch, who was the latest in a litany of rookie busts during the Broncos legend’s reign. If any of those first three picks falter, that could spell doom for Denver.
Additionally, the Broncos’ offensive line is a work in progress. The decision to take Chubb over G Quentin Nelson made sense in April but could haunt them if the line continues to get bulldozed. Second-year OT Garret Bolles is coming off a season plagued by injuries and penalties. He’ll be protecting Keenum’s blind side. The rest of the line isn’t much to write home about.
Speaking of Keenum, while I have faith in him, we’ve seen the clock strike midnight on these Cinderella stories before. Nick Foles bounced around the league for years before finding the glass slipper again in Philly last season. Same for guys like Matt Flynn, Matt Cassell, Ryan Fitzpatrick, etc. Keenum came out of nowhere for a reason. Nobody, including a QB-needy Rams team, believed in him. Maybe last year was the start of something bigger. Maybe it was a fluke. Time will tell.
Bottom Line: The AFC is so top-heavy that it doesn’t really matter who you put in this spot because they’re basically making plans to be squashed by a division champ. Could it be Kansas City? Sure. Baltimore? Sure. Even Cleveland? Hey, crazier things have happened.
If the Broncos can overcome their offensive line woes and Case Keenum (or Chad Kelly) can hold it down under center, Denver has a puncher’s chance of making it to the playoffs for the first time in the post-Peyton era.
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
Why: The East is basically a two-dog race between the defending champion Eagles and the resurgent New York Giants. Philly gets the nod because, despite injuries already threatening their title defense, the Eagles have the depth and balance to remain a force.
On defense, the league’s best run defense added aging-but-still-huge AF DT Haloti Ngata. He’ll join a interior led by two-time All-Pro Fletcher Cox. Meanwhile, an already-deep DE rotation of Brandon Graham, Derek Barnett and Chris Long added Michael Bennett from Seattle and talented rookie Josh Sweat from Florida State. They’ll make up for a linebacking crew decimated by injuries (Paul Worrilow) and departures (The now- arrested Mychal Kendricks).
Offensively, the team isn’t sure if Carson Wentz, who blew out his knee late last season, will be ready for the season opener against Atlanta but he’s not too far from a return. If he can’t go, Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles waits in the wings. Either QB will have the benefit of playing behind a stout offensive line and RB Jay Ajayi, playing for a new contract next spring, running the ball.
Cause for Concern: In addition to the uncertainty surrounding Wentz and the loss of Worrilow just days after cutting Kendricks, WR Alshon Jeffrey is also dealing with knee troubles that threatens the start of his season. If he can’t go, the team will forced to rely on Nelson Agholor, Mike Wallace and Zach Ertz to keep the air game formidable. The secondary also took a few hits with the losses of Corey Graham and Pat Robinson. The hope is second-year corner Sidney Jones can bounce back from a torn Achilles. Middle linebacker Jordan Hicks is also coming back from an Achilles injury and his health is key with the lack of talent around him.
Bottom Line: Carson Wentz was the MVP before tearing his ACL, so if he returns to form early, another division title is Philly’s to lose. The early injuries are troubling but the Eagles proved last season they can overcome adversity. The talent is there. The depth is there. And the monkey of never winning a Super Bowl is off their back. The Giants will give Philly a fight but it’s hard to not like their chances.
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings
Why: A defensive unit that was second against both the pass and run while leading the league in points allowed added DT Sheldon Richardson, S George Iloka and first-round CB Mike Hughes. An offense that already had a pair of playmaking WRs in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen as well as Pro Bowl TE Kyle Rudolph gets Dalvin Cook back and QB Kirk Cousins to throw the ball. It’s worth noting this team made the NFC Championship with Case Keenum.
The division is going to be tougher this year with Aaron Rodgers’ return in Green Bay, Chicago’s offseason improvements and Detroit’s underrated offense but the Vikes went 5-1 against these guys last year with a weaker roster.
If Cousins can prove to be more than the garbage time stat-padded he was in Washington, Minnesota could be this season’s Philadelphia.
Cause for Concern: We’ll get to the risk of putting championship hopes in Cousins’ hands in a second. Let’s start with Minnesota’s offensive line, which is terrible and already dealing with injuries to guard Nick Easton and Mike Rimmers as well as center Pat Efflein. Without protection up front, it doesn’t matter if the QB is Kirk Cousins, Kurt Warner or Kirk Douglas, this offense is going to be trouble. The offensive line woes are especially troubling for Cook, who was off to a great rookie campaign before blowing out his knee in Week 4. The Vikings are taking it slow with their dynamic running back, mixing in veteran Latavius Murray when the mood strikes, but the issue remains the same. If you can’t keep the defense at bay, you’re not going to score. You don’t score, you don’t win.
Now, on to Cousins. The former Michigan State star rose to glory in the wake of Robert Griffin III’s downward spiral and became the Redskins’ best passer in decades. None of that meant much in the standings though. Washington still struggled to make the postseason, and when they did, Cousins couldn’t get them over the hump. Cousins isn’t totally to blame for those shortcomings but there’s huge risk involved in making a $84 million investment in a guy with inflated stats who hasn’t proven to be a winner. That issue becomes even larger when you can’t protect him. With so much offensive line talent in the draft, it’s interesting Minnesota opted for a third corner over someone who can keep their high-priced gunslinger upright.
Bottom Line: As we saw with Jacksonville last season, a great defense can carry even the most anemic of offenses. Minnesota won’t be quite as bad as the Jaguars but the offensive line tempers any expectations of grandeur despite the talent at the skill positions.
If the offensive line isn’t a walking turnstile, the Vikings are a legitimate title threat, regardless of Cousins’ lack of success or Cook’s shaky knee.
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
Why: Left for dead after it seemed Drew Brees lost a step and the defense lacked talent, the Saints surprised everyone thanks to a great draft and great coaching. CB Marshon Lattimore and RB Alvin Kamara both earned ROTY honors on their respective sides of the ball, while the Saints’ bend-but-don’t break defense was a missed tackle away from the NFC championship.
Fortunately, the Saints didn’t rest on their “What could’ve been” laurels. They added Patrick Robinson, Demario Davis and Kurt Coleman in free agency and made a big move in the draft to take small-school standout Marcus Davenport in the first round. Offensively, Mark Ingram’s four-game suspension means The Alvin Kamara show will run unopposed for the first month of the year and the electric playmaker will look to build on last year’s highlight reel. WR Michae Thomas will get help in the form of third-round rookie Tre’Quan Smith and Bears castoff Cameron Meredith, who missed all of last season with a knee injury.
At 39, Brees’ deep ball may not be what it once but he can still move the chains with the best of them. If the team continues to improve on both sides, this could be one hell of a swan song for the future Hall of Famer.
Cause for Concern: There aren’t many red flags in the Bayou unless you’re overly concerned that Brees will take a step back or a defense with very few big names doesn’t develop. After cutting Jonathan Williams and Terrence West, the Saints put all of their eggs in Kamara’s basket for the first four games, which is a risk considering he’s never handled a full workload before.
The team also gave up next year’s first round pick on the hope that Davenport, who made a name for himself at UTEP, is more DeMarcus Ware than Vernon Gholston. If he doesn’t pan out, that’s a lot of draft capital down the drain.
Bottom Line: The Saints didn’t have a sexy offseason like the other NFC contender. They didn’t shake things up with a bunch of big acquisitions like the Rams. They didn’t sign a QB to big money like Minnesota or even Green Bay (with the Rodgers extension). Beyond the trade up for Davenport, there wasn’t a lot of flash to a team that might flying under the radar a little.
In the end, this offense can win any shootout. It’s up to the defense to not get caught with their hands on their hips again.
NFC West: Los Angeles Rams
Why: Throwing a bunch of big names on a roster and expecting a Lombardi Trophy rarely works out in the NFL. It didn’t work out for the Redskins in the early part of the Dan Snyder era. It didn’t work out for the “Dream Team” Eagles. It might not work out for this season’s Rams.
That torrid history didn’t stop Los Angeles from having an offseason for the ages.
Robert Quinn, Tavon Austin, Trumaine Johnson, Alec Ogletree, Sammy Watkins, Connor Barwin: out.
Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, Brandin Cooks: in.
The team also secured its long-term future with extensions for Cooks, star RB Todd Gurley, reigning Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald and guard Rob Havenstein. That doesn’t include the presence of former No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff, who took a huge step forward in his first season under Sean McVay, as well as trusty weapons Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp.
The Rams have the stars to match its Hollywood home. It’s just up to McVay (and more importantly, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips) to keep egos in check.
Cause for Concern: All of the Rams come with their share of baggage. Suh is considered one of the dirtiest, if not the dirtiest, players in the game and he has the suspensions/fines to prove it. The Chiefs were all too willing to get rid of Peters three years after winning Rookie of the Year due to maturity issues. Talib is well-traveled for a reason, despite being a big contributor for some solid defensive units. Cooks is on his third team in as many years.
That becomes moot if the coaching staff gets everyone on the same page. If they can’t, the team created a reality show instead of a championship contender.
Bottom Line: It’s hard to look at this roster and not think they have everything you want in a champion. After moonlighting as a checkdown artist under Jeff Fisher, Goff looked like a stud last season to the tune of 3800 yards, 28TDs and only seven interceptions. Gurley should’ve won MVP last year after carrying the Rams to a surprise playoff berth. The defense doesn’t seem to have a weakness and the receiving core is deep.
However, I’m ready to believe a team of high-priced mercenaries can win it all when it actually happens.
Wild Card: Green Bay Packers
Why: Three words: Aaron Charles Rodgers. After missing almost all of last season with a broken collarbone, No. 12 is back with a new $134 million contract and a huge chip on his reattached shoulder. If he’s healthy for 16 games, the Packers are a playoff team and a contender. Every thing else falling into place is a bonus.
As for everything else, the Packers were surprisingly aggressive in the offseason. Longtime Rodgers favorite Jordy Nelson is gone. Red zone menace Jimmy Graham is in. The team invested three picks in its receiving core, J’Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown, which is a strategy they implanted at RB the year before and wound up with potential starters in Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Green Bay also found time on draft day to invest in their secondary with a pair of talented corners: Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson. Both were considered the best corners in the draft not named Denzel Ward or Minkah Fitzpatrick.
The team also reunited DE Muhammad Wilkerson with former DC Mike Pettine in an attempt to bolster a run defense now without LB Jake Ryan.
Cause for Concern: Beyond Rodgers, there’s a lot of question marks. Can Pettine fix a defense that was an Achilles heel for the last half-decade under Dom Capers? Can the offensive line, suddenly a strength but still iffy, keep Rodgers from taking another bad hit? Can a young secondary grow up fast?
The wideouts, a staple in Green Bay since the Brett Favre era, are suddenly a red flag. Davante Adams is coming off his first big year and is now the No. 1. Randall Cobb is a potential salary cap casualty. The rest are either unheralded or rookies.
A lot of things need to bounce Green Bay’s way for Rodgers to win another ring, and that’s something that hasn’t happened in quite some time.
Bottom Line: Despite the freezing temperatures in Green Bay, the seats are especially hot underneath Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy. Rodgers is somehow both the league’s best QB and the owner of a 5-6 playoff record since his first SB win while McCarthy has failed to capitalize off Packers teams more talented than this one. For Green Bay to compete in a suddenly deep NFC, McCarthy will have to get the youngsters to develop. Fast.
If he can’t, the Packers may need to find someone else who can while Rodgers is still in his prime.
Wild Card: New York Giants
Why: This was a toss-up between New York and Atlanta, but it’s tough to overlook what Big Blue did this offseason. They added Saquon Barkley, considered the best RB prospect in a quarter century, to an offense that already has Odell Beckham Jr., Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard. Nate Solder and rookie Will Hernandez were brought in to fix an offensive line that was getting Eli Manning trounced. Even with Eli on the downside of his career, a supporting cast of 20-somethings should help him navigate through a division with only one real contender (Philadelphia).
Cause for Concern: The Giants did well to help their offensive woes but the defense remains in transition. The team switched to a 3-4 set and shipped top pass-rusher and fireworks guru Jason Pierre-Paul to Tampa Bay. They added Alec Ogletree from the Rams and Lorenzo Carter in the draft but they’ll need more than that to fend off the high-octane offenses in the NFC. CB Eli Apple, coming off a strange 2017 campaign, might be this team’s X-Factor on D.
Bottom Line: Despite coming off a 3-13 season, all eyes will be on Big Blue this season. Barkley will need to prove New York did right by taking him over a potential franchise QB. OBJ has a new $95 million extension to live up to. Manning, coming off declining numbers in back-to-back years and the first benching of his career last season, will have to turn back the clock. The defense will have to keep up with its star-studded counterparts.
The NFC will have plenty of contenders for this spot, so it’s up to the Giants to make those offseason changes pay off.
The Award Section
Coach of the Year: Sean McVay, Rams - On paper, the Rams are the best team in the NFC and possibly the NFL. If he can get his big-named roster to live up to the hype, this honor is his to lose.
Dark Horse: Matt Nagy, Bears - After the trade for All-Pro pass rusher Khalil Mack, Chicago’s Super Bowl odds improved from 100-1 to 40-1 and there was already enough sleeper buzz after a busy offseason. A championship season with so many parts still moving seems unlikely, but if Nagy can get this team to respectability, that’s a big enough leap to earn some love.
Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers - This might be unfair since A-Rod was able to come back late last season before being shelved in the final two weeks when Green Bay’s season went into the tank. He still missed 10 games last year, and if he’s healthy in 2018, he’s a mortal lock to improve on what might have been MVP numbers in ‘17 (1,675 yards, 16 TDs and 6 INTs).
Dark Horse: David Johnson, RB, Cardinals - Johnson’s 2017 campaign ended before it really got started, succumbing to a wrist injury 11 carries into Week 1. DJ has mentioned in years past his goal is to notch 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving. If he even gets close, it might not matter what Rodgers or anyone else on the mend does.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants - Best RB prospect of the 25 years? Let’s see it.
Dark Horse: Sam Darnold, QB, Jets - Gang Green hasn’t had a real QB in nearly a decade and he’s the only one of a stacked class of signal callers who will draw a Week 1 starting nod. Denver’s Royce Freeman is also someone to watch.
Defensive Rookie of the Year - Bradley Chubb, DE, Broncos - Best pass rusher in the draft and he’ll have Von Miller on the other end taking pressure off him.
Dark Horse: Derwin James, S, Chargers - He’ll play the Kam Chancellor role for Gus Bradley’s defense and he’s already shown in the preseason that he’s the goods.
Offensive Player of the Year: Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints - This award basically exists because voters hate giving the MVP to non-QBs. Kamara has the backfield to himself while Mark Ingram is on suspension for the first month and that might be enough to distance himself from the rest of the field.
Dark Horse: Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers - To me, the Madden Curse is the only thing keeping him from being the favorite.
Defensive Player of the Year: Joey Bosa, DE, Chargers - You can talk yourself into any number of pass rushers: Miller, Mack, Donald, Watt. Bosa seems to get better every year and defensive ends who flirt with 100 tackles and double-digit sacks deserve some hardware.
Dark Horse: Jalen Ramsey, CB, Jaguars - The best corner in the game spent the summer talking a big game. If QBs are brave enough to throw his way, he has a puncher’s chance as the best player on the best defense in football.
MVP: Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans - Wentz and Rodgers are the Vegas favorites, but the preseason leaders in the clubhouse haven’t won the past few years (except for Brady, who benefitted from Wentz’s injury and voters ignoring Gurley). Watson may be more of a dark horse, but he has all the tools to impress voters.
Dark Horse: Jared Goff, QB, Rams - He made such a leap last season, and if the guy picked after him can be a MVP candidate, why can’t Goff make a run?
Who’s Going To Atlanta?
NFC Championship: Saints over Rams - Experience over youthful exuberance.
AFC Championship: Chargers over Steelers - Another lengthy postseason run will help Bell secure the bag he desires, but the Chargers’ opportunistic defense should be too much for the Steel Curtain.
Super Bowl LIII: Chargers over Saints - Tons of storylines here. Rivers vs Brees. Rivers’ quest for his first ring. Brees vs the team that replaced him and a possible farewell tour.
This is the best Chargers team we’ve seen since LT retired and it’s hard not to root for Rivers here. Give me L.A’s balance over New Orleans’ efficiency.
