2021 NFL Predictions Sure To Go Wrong

Fresh off one of the weirdest seasons in football history, the NFL is back tonight for a bigger and potentially more dramatic sequel. Commissioner Roger Goodell, once a champion for player safety and now a much-maligned super villain who acts as a bag man for the owners, added an extra game to the regular season schedule which is sure to add to the sport’s yearly wear and tear. 

As if that isn’t a big enough health concern, Covid-19 still looms as the league’s ultimate antagonist as the delta variant continues to infect respiratory systems worldwide while war is being waged between the vaccinated and unvaccinated. Last season, the coronavirus emptied stadiums and put teams into precarious positions. Schedules were shuffled, rosters were weakened and the quality of the game suffered. 

The league is taking drastic measures to assure that won’t be the case this time around.   There will be no rescheduling of games this season due to outbreaks and those affected by unvaccinated players will be forced to forfeit. It’s an interesting subplot to watch as the season progresses. 

As for what might transpire in the games that will actually be played, it’s time for this year’s dose of Predictions Sure to Go Wrong.  

NFC East

1. Washington: Reigning division champion possesses one of football’s best young cores on both sides of the ball and now adds Ryan Fitzpatrick as an upgrade over the three-headed monster it had at QB last season. 
2. Dallas*: A potentially historic offense  will have to compensate for an uncertain defense, mediocre coaching and a litany of health concerns. 
3. Philadelphia: I’m in the minority here but I think Philly could be a sneaky contender. Jalen Hurts has plenty of playmakers around him and that defense is better than people think. 
4. New York Giants: Putting a turnover-prone QB behind the league’s worst offensive line is a recipe for disaster. You throw in a non-existent pass-rush and the Giants might be a bottom-five team this year. 

NFC North

1. Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers pushed all his chips to the middle of the table after back-to-back years of just missing the Super Bowl, but A-Rod hoisting a second Lombardi trophy still depends on the defense making strides. 
2. Chicago*: Head coach Matt Nagy’s job security lies on him breaking away from washed up veteran QB Andy Dalton and unleashing rookie Justin Fields on the world. 
3. Minnesota: Calling it now….this is Russell Wilson’s team by next season. 
4. Detroit: It’s hard to imagine Dan Campbell succeeding where many coaches have failed, especially with this roster. 

NFC South

1. Tampa Bay: Age (44) and a weak division aren’t big enough obstacles to stop Tom Brady’s quest for an eighth ring. 
2. New Orleans: This might a generous prediction for a Jameis Winston-led team playing without its best receiver for the first half of the season, but there’s enough talent here to keep the Saints in playoff contention. 
3. Carolina: If Sam Darnold can take advantage of the best roster he’s ever been a part of, the Panthers are a sleeper team to make some noise. 
4. Atlanta: It’s risky to ask 36-year-old Matt Ryan to win a shootout every week to remain competitive but at least Matty Ice throwing to Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts will be fun to watch.

NFC West

1. Los Angeles Rams: The biggest threat to Tom Brady making another championship run. 
2. San Francisco*: An unfortunate string of injuries last season derailed a team that was a bad fourth quarter away from winning the Super Bowl two years ago, but the star power is still there for the Niners to reclaim the NFC throne. 
3. Arizona: A very good team with the misfortune of being in a division with two potential powerhouses but a healthy JJ Watt could be the piece that wins the West for the Cards. 
4. 
   
   Seattle: Aaron Rodgers’ drama in Green Bay and the subsequent filling of vacancies overshadowed Russell Wilson’s own desire to play elsewhere but a slow start could bring that story back to the front page. 

AFC East

1. Buffalo: The Bills being elevated from long-time afterthought to potential Super Bowl contender this fast scares me a little, but Josh Allen looked great in the preseason and there’s nobody in this division that looks like they can stand in their way. 
2. New England*: After missing the playoffs for the first time in decades, the Pats broke out the checkbook to shore up some holes but their biggest move might be drafting Mac Jones as their new QB1.
3. Miami: It’s hard to have faith in Tua Time when the team (or at least ownership) doesn’t seem to. The rumored desire to bring in Deshaun Watson, who may never play again depending on how his legal troubles go, is mind-boggling after years of tanking to get their franchise QB. 
4. New York Jets: I think Zach Wilson is the real deal. I think the Jets will be better than people expect. I also think the team will be lucky to win five games. All of these statements could be true. 

AFC North: 

1. Cleveland: The Browns building off last season’s momentum and becoming a contender would be great for the city, but anyone who remembers their 2003 campaign might get flashbacks of the team wilting under the spotlight. 
2. Baltimore*: Lamar Jackson getting COVID twice and a litany of early injuries in the backfield before the season starts are not great signs for a team that also has question marks at receiver and on defense. 
3. Pittsburgh: 39-year-old statue Ben Roethlisberger playing behind a patchwork offensive line? No, thank you. 
4. Cincinnati: If Joe Burrow regains his confidence and the team can keep him upright, the Bengals could move up a spot or two. 

AFC South

1. Tennessee: The Titans should have the division wrapped up by November, but any playoff run is contingent on a healthy Julio Jones and improvement on the defensive end. 
2. Indianapolis: A year after tying their championship hopes to Philip Rivers, the Colts now turn to fragile Carson Wentz, who already suffered an injured foot and contracted Covid before the games even matter. Fortunately, a stout defense and RB Jonathan Taylor will keep them respectable. 
3. Jacksonville: The Jags’ leaky offensive line will make Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season look a lot like Joe Burrow’s first year, but hopefully with a different ending. 
4. Houston: Until the Texans trade Deshaun Watson, there is LITERALLY nothing to see here. 

AFC West

1. Kansas City: If you believe in bad juju, the Madden curse and the Super Bowl hangover is the kind of combo that will cause you to lose sleep, but Pat Mahomes is a hell of a jinx buster. 
2. Los Angeles Chargers*: Stop me if you’ve heard this before but….this could be the Chargers’ year. 
3. Denver: Relax, Broncos fans. Aaron Rodgers is coming next year. 
4. Las Vegas: At some point, we have to talk about how much of a disaster Jon Gruden’s return has been. 

NFC Wild Card teams: San Francisco, Chicago, Dallas

AFC Wild Card teams: New England, Los Angeles, Baltimore

And The Award Goes to.....

MVP: Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams - Still only 33, the combination of his big arm, Sean McVay’s offensive mind and the best supporting cast he’s ever had should lead to a career year. 

Offensive Player of the Year: Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay - Playing for a massive new contract with the league’s reigning MVP on a team in full “Last Dance” mode. 

Defensive Player of the Year: Chase Young, DE, Washington - The best player on one of the league’s most promising defensive units, Young and Cleveland’s Myles Garrett are the best options for voters tired of giving the award to Aaron Donald. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh - A number of realistic candidates, including all five first-round QBs, but this comes down to who has the best opportunity to produce and Harris is a three-down bellcow on a team that wants (needs?) to establish the run. 

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Patrick Surtain, CB, Denver: The draft’s best corner will benefit from a strong pass rush and playing six divisional games against pass-happy teams. 

Comeback Player of Year: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina: Dak is already hurt and Saquon is on a pitch count running behind a terrible offensive line. Give me the best dual-threat RB in the league instead. 

Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay - The Bucs return every starter from last year’s championship team and the schedule is cupcake soft. 

PLAYOFFS!?

AFC Championship: Buffalo over Cleveland: There’s no logical reason to not have Kansas City here except being reluctant to pick the Chiefs to win a third straight AFC championship (and fourth straight appearance). So, I’m going with the two best alternatives but I don’t feel good about it. 

NFC Championship: LA Rams over Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers’ potential final season with the Packers ends just like the last two have: coming up in the NFC title game. As much as we’d love to fantasy book a storybook ending for Rodgers, the Rams have too much talent on both sides of the ball to be denied. 

Super Bowl: Rams over Bills - Even with the presence of Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, this should be a shoutout between two of the strongest arms in football. Ultimately, the better defense wins out and Matt Stafford finally shakes off years of Motor City mediocrity to win the big one.

Tim Tebow: Sports Evangelist

Tim Tebow is sports’ ultimate opportunist. If he wasn’t such a nice guy, he could be easily be labeled a con man or charlatan, but few athletes have ever managed to do more with less.

While most quarterbacks thrill with arm strength, pinpoint accuracy and an ability to read the defense, Tebow gets by with charm, charisma and the ability to read the room.

The finesse started at The University of Florida, where Tebow initially shared quarterback duties with top recruit Chris Leak before taking over the starting job and putting together one of the greatest college careers ever. Tebow won two championships and earned two Heisman finalist nods, winning once and becoming the first sophomore to win the award. His success was due in large part to a roster loaded with pro talent and a scheme tailored to his unique skill-set.

Then came the pros.

Scouts were rightfully pessimistic that Tebow would thrive in the NFL due to his limitations as a passer. Some suggested he try out at different positions and that, regardless of the route he chose, he would be hard-pressed to find a team who would spend a first-round pick on him. Tebow and his handlers stiff-armed the naysayers and were adamant his name would be called in the draft’s opening salvo.

They were right.

The Denver Broncos not only used the 25th pick on Tebow but traded up from the second round to do so. A few notable names Denver passed on to take Touchdown Timmy: Devin McCourtey, Rob Gronkowski and TJ Ward. All three would go on to win Super Bowls with Ward later signing with the Broncos and helping them win Super Bowl 50.

Tebow only lasted two seasons in Denver but both campaigns were filled with his penchant for the dramatic. What he lacked in prototypical quarterback skill he made up for with unflappable confidence and what former teammate Champ Bailey called "infectious" leadership.  Fourth quarter leads weren’t safe during Tebow’s tenure and he famously led Denver to a playoff upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2011, the team’s first postseason win since 2005. John Elway’s arrival in the Broncos front office spelled the end of Tebow Time and, despite completing just 47 percent of his passes in 23 games in Denver, the former Gator showed enough promise to convince the Jets to take a chance on him. He attempted just eight passes in his lone season with Gang Green but still managed to earn fliers from Philadelphia and New England. He’d never see the field with either team.

With his football dreams momentarily dashed, Tebow moved to television where his matinee idol likability and knowledge of the game earned him a deal with ESPN as an analyst. Tebow did an adequate enough job with the worldwide leader to earn an extension but he still had designs on stepping back on the field.

With the NFL no longer interested, Tebow tried his hand at baseball. Was Tebow a Bo Jackson-esque talent who had excelled on the diamond in college while dominating on the gridiron? Of course not. He did, however, bitch all-state honors in high school....as a junior....which was the last time he picked up a bat. Despite the inexperience, scouts from all over came out to see The Friar of Finesse try his hand at a new sport. He eventually found a suitor in the New York Mets, a team with the right combination of front office ineptitude and love for big names to be enamored with sports’ saintly spectacle.

Tebow played four seasons across two different minor league levels within the Mets organization. He hit above .223 just once and struck out 347 times in 1,119 plate appearances (or 31 percent of the time). This past February, he “retired” from baseball having never earned a major league call-up.

Fast forward to this spring. Despite being out of the league since 2012 and a massive influx of talent at the quarterback position, Tebow is back in the NFL. Much like he has during his entire career in the spotlight, the soon-to-be 33-year-old’s second chance comes solely because of his innate ability to convince at least one other person he’s worth rolling the dice on. In this case, that person is the one who initially helped Tebow become a main attraction: former college coach Urban Meyer.

Meyer was hired by the Jacksonville Jaguars in January after the Jags finished with a league-worst 1-15 record. He had been retired from coaching since 2018 and, much like Tebow in the 2010 draft, was selected over more qualified candidates such as Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and San Francisco 49ers defensive maven Robert Salah. Also like Tebow, Meyer is living off his collegiate accomplishments, having never had a losing season in 17 seasons as head coach as well as winning national championships with Florida and Ohio State. Even though Meyer was poised to take one of the greatest quarterback prospects ever in Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 overall pick, Urban couldn’t resist rekindling the magic with his old flame.

Except this time, Tebow will attempt to resurrect his pro career as a tight end. Yes, the same position scouts had suggested he try out at in 2010 and he turned his nose up at. How much experience did Tebow have as a receiver during his college and pro stints before taking on this new role, you ask? About as much experience as he had playing college baseball before signing with the Mets, which is to say none. Not once did Meyer, the only man willing to give his former prized prospect a second chance, send Touchdown Timmy out to catch passes. Not once was Tebow utilized as a receiver during any of his stints with four different NFL franchises.

And yet, Tebow was handed an opportunity thousands dream of. The same opportunity that still eludes Colin Kaepernick, whose politics and fight for justice have cast him as a distraction while Tebow’s career 75 Quarterback Rating makes him a reclamation project. The Jags’ newest weapon will undoubtedly take media attention away from Lawrence, the reigning No. 1 overall pick and potential franchise savior. That could be a good or bad thing for the former Clemson product depending on what kind of circus Tebow can still draw.

Ultimately, this could all be for nothing. A couple months from now, Tebow’s latest attempt to reclaim the glory days might go up in flames like his previous ventures have and we all got riled up for no reason. The fact that we are even in this position is a testament to his ability to make others believe in him.

No matter how damaged the goods Tebow is selling, he always finds a buyer.

Aaron Out Grievances

Hours before the start of the NFL Draft, Aaron Rodgers unveiled the worst-kept secret in professional football: He no longer wanted to be a Green Bay Packer.

The news took the sports world by storm but it shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to Rodgers’ tenure in Titletown or watched how players of the reigning MVP’s caliber have ended the tail end of their careers.

Rodgers’ own road to glory in Green Bay began only after the Packers sent his legendary predecessor Brett Favre to New York kicking and screaming after his latest retirement charade. Just four months ago, Rodgers watched Tom Brady win his seventh Super Bowl in his first year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after two decades of dominance with the New England Patriots. Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Adrian Peterson, Jerry Rice, Joe Montana, Emmitt Smith, Joe Namath.....all football icons who were forced to write their final chapters elsewhere after the teams they helped build decided to cut the cord.

The 37-year-old hasn’t publicly demanded a trade nor has he offered much on his desire to leave the only team he’s ever known. Instead, most, if not all, of the story has been told through third-party reports and internet gossip ranging from Rodgers being upset over the release of wideout Jake Kumerow to him wanting general manager Brian Gutekunst fired. The Packers have sent everyone within the team’s power structure Rodgers’ way to change his mind while expressing their desire to hang on to their franchise QB when speaking to the media.

However, Rodgers’ inevitable departure from Green Bay seemed avoidable.

For 13 seasons as a starter, Rodgers made the Packers a legitimate title contender, won three MVPs and led the team to its first Super Bowl win since 1997 as a sixth seed. During that span, the franchise attempted to protect its franchise quarterback behind subpar offensive lines, forced him to compensate for leaky defensive units and repeatedly ignored his requests to put talent around him either by being too cheap or choosing to build other areas.

Case in point: On the night Rodgers made his unhappiness public, the Packers doubled down on its second straight offseason of inactivity by neglecting to get their quarterback a new target until late in the third round by selecting slot receiver Amari Rodgers out of Clemson.

In fact, since Rodgers was drafted in 2005, the Packers have used a first-round pick on an offensive skill position player just once.

That player? Rodgers’ heir apparent Jordan Love last year.

That’s not to say Rodgers has been a one-man show. Green Bay has shown a knack for finding key players in later rounds such as Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. However, for every Jones or Adams, there’s the Packers passing on AJ Brown and DK Metcalf in 2019 to take safety Darnell Savage or trading up last year to take Love instead moving up a little higher for Justin Jefferson.

Making matters worse, Rodgers watched Brady’s Buccaneers work magic on a significantly lower salary cap and return all 22 starters from a championship team while A-Rod’s Packers let the league’s best center Corey Linsley walk to Los Angeles.

So, what happens now?

A trade happening anytime soon seems unlikely. The Packers are adamant they are committed to Rodgers even if Rodgers isn’t committed to them and already turned down an offer from the San Francisco 49ers that centered around the No. 3 overall pick.

The Niners, along with the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders, were reportedly on Rodgers’ preferred list of destinations. However, the Broncos claim to be content with the duo of Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater while the Raiders are invested in Derek Carr. The draft also eliminated a number of potential landing spots outside of A-Rod’s wish list as five QBs went in the first round.

Another blow to Rodgers’ leverage is his contract. He’s signed to the Packers through 2023 with no guaranteed money left on his deal and he doesn’t have a no-trade clause. In other words, there’s nothing forcing Green Bay to send Rodgers where he wants to go even if they decide to move him.

His latest bargaining chip has been threatening retirement. Rodgers was a guest host on Jeopardy! during the offseason and has been very open about wanting the gig full time. That’s unlikely to budge the franchise as it would eventually save the cap-strapped Pack some money and they already have his replacement on the roster.

Even if Rodgers and the Packers can come to a compromise and table their separation until next year, the three-time MVP will be potentially competing on the trade market with Deshaun Watson (assuming his legal troubles are behind him by then) and Russell Wilson. Both are younger than Rodgers and both expressed a desire to be traded earlier this offseason. There’s also the reality that, no matter where Rodgers lands, he’s going to have to accept a mentor role at some point. No team is going to acquire an oft-injured QB in his late-30’s without some kind of contingency plan in place.

This story is going to continue to get ugly and neither side is without fault. Rodgers earned a reputation for being defiant from the way things ended with previous head coach Mike McCarthy and Rodgers’ Willie Beaman-like tendency to call his own plays. That stigma is unlikely to change as he holds the team hostage until it meets his demands.

While his frustration is understandable, he has to realize he has it better than most. He’s not running for his life behind a patchwork offensive line like Wilson has in Seattle the past eight seasons. He’s not watching his supporting cast get traded away for 30 cents on the dollar like Watson did with DeAndre Hopkins last year. He has arguably the league’s best receiver in Adams and another budding star in Aaron Jones, who just re-signed for four more years off the strength of what the team has done the past few seasons. There’s also little incentive to pump more capital into skill players when Rodgers managed to win MVP and lead the team back to the NFC championship for the second straight season with the crew he has.

As for the Packers, when the best player your franchise has ever had is asking for help, you listen. The NFL Draft has been deep at receiver the past three years and the team has opted to look in other directions. That would be admirable if those choices turned out to be stars but only five first-round picks have made the Pro Bowl since 2006 (AJ Hawk, BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Jaire Alexander, with only Alexander still with the team). If Rodgers never plays another down for Green Bay, the decision to not take the Niners’ offer is going to come back to haunt them more than playing against him would have.

There’s also the residual effect to this standoff. Adams made news earlier this week when he posted a cryptic tweet about appreciating “what you got while ya got it” (which was “liked” by Rodgers’ account). It could be about the turmoil in Titletown. It could be about the McRib. We’ll never know for sure.

But if the Rodgers mess sets off some kind of mutiny in Green Bay, the team will be staring down its worst loss of the year five months before the 2021 season even opens up.

2021 NFL Mock Draft

 It’s NFL Draft week, which means it’s time for the annual tradition of filling out a mock that will go down in flames within the first hour. 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson - This card was turned in months ago. Even if he doesn’t live up to the John Elway/Andrew Luck comps, he’s already one of the three best QB’s in franchise history.

2. New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU - Along with Lawrence going to the Jags, the only other mortal lock are the Jets taking Wilson, who will look to succeed were predecessors Mark Sanchez and Sam Darnold failed.

3. San Francisco 49ers (from MIA via HOU): Mac Jones, QB, Alabama - It’s weird that San Fran traded up to get Jones, who seemed destined to go lower, but the team loves his accuracy. Trey Lance is also in the mix. 

4. Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida - This is Atlanta’s best chance to take a QB, but Matt Ryan still has a few years left in a league where passers play into their 40’s. If the Falcons do trade Julio Jones, they’ll need a new weapon and Pitts might be the best in the draft. 

5. Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU - It would make more sense for Cincy to get more protection for Joe Burrow, coming off a rookie season cut short by a torn ACL, but the team seems to be adamant on reuniting Burrow with his former college teammate Chase. 

6. Miami Dolphins (from PHI): Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama - The Dolphins need to prioritize building around Tua. They could use an elite blindside protector like Penei Sewell but adding the speedy Waddle to DeVante Parker and Will Fuller helps, too.

TRADE! Detroit trades pick to New England: With two of the top WR off the board, Detroit takes advantage of New England’s desperation for a QB and moves down.

7. New England Patriots (from DET): Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State - The Patriots addressed a number of needs with their free agency spending spree but they still need a quarterback and they aren’t getting one of the top five sitting at 15. Even if Cam Newton bounces back from a horrid 2020, he’s not the long-term answer. Fields can learn behind Cam in Year 1 and take over in 2022.

TRADE! Carolina trades pick to Los Angeles Chargers: The Panthers need to recoup some picks after trading for Sam Darnold. The Chargers, needing offensive line help, pounce at the opportunity to get a franchise left tackle. 

8. Los Angeles Chargers (from CAR): Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon - In a draft that could see a lot of college reunions, the Chargers invest in Justin Herbert’s future by drafting his old left tackle. Sewell drew Jonathan Ogden comps from legendary scout Gil Brandt and could go as high as 4, but the run on QBs likely causes him to slip.

9. Denver Broncos: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State - Giving up on Drew Lock after a season and a half seems like a mistake but the same can be said about passing on an opportunity to upgrade at the sport’s most important position. The Broncos have holes elsewhere but Lance is both the best player available and fills a huge need. 

10. Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama - You could slot any defensive player in here and it would be an upgrade for a unit that hemorrhaged points last year. Surtain is the best corner in this draft, is arguably the best overall defensive prospect and his father was a Pro Bowl corner with the Dolphins. After signing Dak Prescott to a $240 million contract, using this pick to improve the offensive line is an option as well. 

11. New York Giants: Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan: The Giants spent big money fixing both sides of the ball this offseason, but still need a pass-rusher in a division that features Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts. Paye might seem like a reach here but GM Dave Gettleman has been against trading down over the years and isn’t afraid to take his guy earlier than expected (See Jones, Daniel).

12. Philadelphia Eagles (from MIA via SF): DaVonta Smith, WR, Alabama - The Eagles’ offense lost Alshon Jeffrey, DeSean Jackson and will eventually trade Zach Ertz, leaving Dallas Goedert and last year’s first round pick Jalen Raegor as Jalen Hurt’s only weapons. Smith’s skinny frame raises some concerns that might cause him to drop but the reigning Heisman trophy winner was unstoppable this past season and he could be a dynamic playmaker if he bulks up. 

13. Detroit Lions (from LAC): Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State - The Lions badly need a wide receiver after letting Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones walk. In this scenario, they miss out on the top three but wind up with Parsons, a potential top-five prospect from “Linebacker U” who could fall because maturity concerns and off-the-field issues. 

14. Minnesota Vikings: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern - The Vikings’ offensive line was a mess even before losing tackle Riley Reiff. Enter Slater, who took last season off due to the pandemic but had dominant moments against the Big 10’s best. 

15. Carolina Panthers (from NE): Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina - The Panthers could help Sam Darnold out by improving the O-Line and giving him time to throw, but in a pass-happy NFC South, you can never have too many quality defensive backs. 

TRADE! Arizona trades pick to Washington: Washington has needs at quarterback, linebacker and along the offensive line but they’ll have to move up to snag a quality option. 

16. Washington Football Team (from ARZ): Christian Darrasaw, OT, Virginia Tech - Washington needs a QB badly but might find the price to move into the top 10 too expensive. Darrasaw isn’t as polished as Sewell or Slater but he’s a fine pass protector who will make Ryan Fitzpatrick’s job a little easier. (Note: As this was being written, WFT acquired Ereck Flowers from Miami. That shouldn't change Washington's need for line help.

17. Las Vegas Raiders: Alijah Vera-Tucker, G/T, USC - There’s been a disconnect between what the Raiders should do and what they wind up doing on draft day during the Mike Mayock/Jon Gruden era. Every time you have an idea where they are leaning, you wind up with a Clelin Ferrell or Damon Arnotte. Vegas lost Gabe Jackson and Trent Brown off their offensive line. So, taking the versatile Vera-Tucker, who can play guard or tackle, would make sense.

18. Miami Dolphins: Jaelen Phillips, DE, Miami - The Phins’ defense made strides last season and now stay local with Phillips, a big man (6’5, 266lbs) with a long wingspan whose work against the run and pass will make him a Brian Flores’ favorite.

19. Arizona Cardinals (from WSH): Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech - This year’s Jeffrey Simmons. Off talent alone, Farley is a top-10 pick but back surgery in March will cause him to drop. Meanwhile, the Cardinals need a replacement for Patrick Peterson and might find Farley’s upside worth the wait.

20. Chicago Bears: Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern - The Bears released top corner Kyle Fuller and will attempt to replace him with the aging Desmond Trufant. Even if the 32-year-old can turn back the clock, the unit needs an influx of young talent and staying in-state with Newsome makes sense. 

21. Indianapolis Colts: Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan - The Colts could go with any of the half dozen pass rushers left on the board, but for the Carson Wentz project to work out, he needs to feel safe in the pocket. Mayfield could replace the retiring Anthony Costanzo at left tackle and leave All-Pro guard Quentin Nelson at his natural spot.

22. Tennessee Titans: Asante Samuel Jr, CB, Florida State - The Titans lost Malcolm Butler and Adoree Jackson in the offseason, replacing them with short-term fixed Janoris Jenkins and Kevin Johnson. Titans coach Mike Vrabel played in New England with Asante Sr and should be impressed by Junior’s ability to cover and defend the run. 

23. New York Jets (from SEA): Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami - Gang Green has ignored its need for a pass-rusher during past regimes but would be wise not to make the same mistake with new head coach Robert Salah at the helm. Rousseau took 2020 off but is a giant (6’6, 260) with even bigger upside. He’ll fit right in opposite Carl Lawson on the outside. 

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Najee Harris, RB, Alabama - One of the last teams still committed to the run, Pittsburgh hasn’t hid its desire to find a new bellcow after letting James Conner walk. Alabama has been a running back factory lately with Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs’ recent star turns. If not the bruising Harris, the Steelers could opt for Clemson’s Travis Etienne, who is more of a versatile home run threat. 

25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR): Trevon Moehrig, DB, TCU - The Jags could go a number of directions here but fill their needs at corner and safety with Moehrig, who can play either spot. 

26. Cleveland Browns: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, ILB, Notre Dame - The Browns filled their need for a pass-rusher opposite Myles Garrett by rolling the dice on Jadaveon Clowney. Now, the team continues to improve their front seven with Owusu-Koramoah, who excels in pass coverage while remaining a force against the run. 

27. Baltimore Ravens: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota: The Ravens claim to be content with their receiving core but Marquise Brown is undersized and Sammy Watkins can’t stay healthy. If nothing else, the 6’2” Bateman gives the Ravens another red-zone threat while also acting as Watkins insurance on the outside. 

28. New Orleans Saints: Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa - This is prime trade-out-of-the-first-round territory, so don’t be surprised if the Saints opt out of Day 1. If they don’t, adding to their weak linebacking core would be a sound decision. 

29. Green Bay Packers: Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama - After another quiet offseason, the Packers are going to be under the gun to get Aaron Rodgers more help. Unfortunately, many of the top options are gone and Green Bay has fared better finding their receivers in round two (Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb) anyway. Barmore is the best of a poor interior defensive lineman group and would fit in nicely alongside Kenny Clark up front. As for Rodgers, the Packers dangling heir apparent Jordan Love in a trade for Julio Jones would save the team some headaches. 

30. Buffalo Bills: Jayson Oweh, Edge, Penn State - The Bills’ pass rush is a sore spot in desperate need of speed as defensive ends Jerry Hughes (33) as Mario Addison (34) are getting long in the tooth. The 22-year-old Oweh checks all the boxes as a 6’5” 257-pound freak of nature who ran a 4.3 40 and notched 13.5 sacks in 20 games during his time at Penn State.

31. Baltimore Ravens (from KC): Landon Dickerson, C, Alabama - The Ravens could look for help on the offensive line after trading Orlando Brown to Kansas City in order to nab this spot. Dickerson joins Kevin Zeitler on Baltimore’s revamped interior. A pass rusher like Georgia’s Azeez Ojulari or Texas’ Joseph Ossai could get the call here, too. 

TRADE! Tampa Bay trades pick to Miami: With all 22 starters from their Super Bowl-winning squad returning, the Bucs don’t have many needs to address. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have plenty of ammo to acquire a third first-round pick. 

32. Miami Dolphins (from TB): Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson - The Dolphins have one of the worst running back groups in the league led by Myles Gaskin and Malcolm Brown. With three other RB-needy teams ahead of them in round 2 (Jags, Jets, Falcons), Miami don’t wait for a runner to fall to 36 and move up for arguably the best back in the draft in Etienne.  

Dange-Russ Territory

The inevitable divorce between the Seattle Seahawks and quarterback Russell Wilson won’t happen this offseason, but it’s not because both sides aren’t trying.

It’s because both sides aren’t trying hard enough. 

The Seahawks have 39 million reasons (the cap hit they’d take if they trade Wilson before June 1) to not trade their star quarterback but the hefty price tag is worth it if it means nipping this fiasco in the bud before it gets messier. The Philadelphia Eagles dealt with a similar situation earlier this year when it decided to take on a NFL record $33.8 million in dead money in order to ship disgruntled passer Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts. 

With five quarterbacks potentially going in the first round this year and the Seahawks strapped for picks, Seattle’s best move is to take the hit and deal Wilson for a king’s ransom. 

The instability of this relationship is sure to cast a black cloud over the upcoming season, especially coming off a 2020 campaign that ended with a upset loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the wild card round. Every perceived slight or bad performance will become food for talking heads and the pressure to part ways will increase to the point where Seattle will lose leverage every day Wilson is on the roster. By dealing Wilson and taking the cap hit, the Seahawks could focus on the future instead of trying to repair a fragile present. 

Speculation over Wilson’s future resurfaced in early February when the seven-time Pro Bowler told Dan Patrick “I don’t know if I’m available or not. That’s a Seahawk question.” Later that day, he expressed his frustration in a separate interview over the amount of punishment he’s taken behind Seattle’s porous offensive line:

“I’ve been sacked almost 400 times. So, we’ve got to get better...I’m frustrated with getting hit too much.”

To his credit, Wilson also admitted he “needed to get better, too” and many have cited his penchant for holding the ball too long as a key reason why he’s always under duress. 

Still, the 32-year-old isn’t out of line in his criticism of the team’s failure to protect its $140 million investment. Wilson has been sacked at least 41 times in each of the past eight seasons, including a league-leading 48 in 2019. Despite the beating he’s taken, he’s played all 16 games every year since entering the league in 2012. He also led the franchise to its first-ever Super Bowl win in 2013 and was a bad goal-line throw away from going back-to-back. 

The drama between Wilson and the Seahawks doesn’t stop at the team’s leaky O-line. An article from The Athletic shed more light on the tension between the two parties, detailing a meeting prior to the team’s Week 11 showdown with the Arizona Cardinals that Wilson allegedly “stormed out” of after his ideas to improve the offense fell on deaf ears. 

In the nine games prior to that Thursday night clash with Arizona, Wilson threw for 248 yards or more eight times and was a strong contender for MVP honors. In his final eight games (including the playoffs) he eclipsed that mark just once and failed to reach above 200 yards four times. 

According to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, teams have contacted Seattle about Wilson and The Athletic article mentioned the QB’s camp has “broached trade destinations “ with the Seahawks that include the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, New Orleans Saints and Las Vegas Raiders. Wilson’s agent, Mark Rodgers, followed up that report by stating his client hasn’t asked for a trade, but if he were to be traded, his actual preferred destinations were the Raiders, Saints, Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears (though not in that order).

That wish list is a bit odd, as most of those teams aren't in a better position to contend for a title than Seattle is currently. The Raiders haven’t won a playoff game since 2002, and if it’s offensive input Wilson seeks, good luck getting that from Jon Gruden. The Saints are projected to be $75 million over the salary cap and wouldn’t be able to afford Wilson if or when Drew Brees retires. The Bears don’t have much of a supporting cast to put around Wilson even if they re-sign star receiver Allen Robinson this offseason. As for the Cowboys, head coach Mike McCarthy famously feuded with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay over play-calling and the team is working on re-signing Dak Prescott, who is five years younger than Wilson and has a better rapport with Dallas’ playmakers. 

The list of preferred destinations isn’t ideal for Seattle. With the exception of the Cowboys, all of the team’s on Wilson’s wish list are picking in the bottom half of the first round and that probably continues once Wilson suits up for his new team. In nine seasons in the pros, Wilson has never had a losing season. Still, the Seahawks have to be leery of its franchise player already have his eyes on other teams and should act fast to find a team that will meet their demands. 

SI.com’s Mike Silver believes any trade for Wilson “starts” with three first-round picks, which is an absurd request for any player not named Patrick Mahomes.

Another reason Seattle should move quickly is the market. While nearly a dozen teams will be looking for new signal callers, several of those spots will be filled by a deep rookie class. Prescott, whether he returns to Dallas or not, fills another void, as well. Marcus Mariota, Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jameis Winston and even Cam Newton will also be in line for starting jobs.

Then, there’s the crown jewel: Deshaun Watson. While the Houston Texans are adamant on not moving their 25-year-old phenom, it’s only a matter of time before the team caves. Once that happens, another Pro Bowler gets added to a crowded field. Making matters worse, Aaron Rodgers will likely enter the fray in the coming years once the Green Bay Packers opt to turn to heir apparent Jordan Love and put the three-time MVP on the block. The Seahawks can’t afford to be left standing in the game of QB musical chairs. 

It’s possible Wilson and the Seahawks patch things up, but head coach Pete Carroll's commitment to establishing the run next season combined with accountability concerns and a lack of faith Seattle will fix their turnstile offensive line make this a marriage destined to fail. Additionally, Carroll is signed through 2025 after last year's extension, making it unlikely the team would give him the axe to appease Wilson.

The time has come for both parties to move on. Wilson will be 33 in November, and while that still makes him a young pup in an NFC dominated by the league's elder statesmen Tom Brady (44 in August) and Aaron Rodgers (38 in December), the amount of punishment he takes is bound to shave years off his career. The Seahawks, as a whole, haven't been the same since falling to Brady on the final play of Super Bowl XLIX. The once-dominant defense hasn't been good for years, even as the team has made trades for players like safety Jamal Adams and defensive end Carlos Dunlap. They've ignored improving the offensive line while wasting first-round picks on the likes of Rashaad Penny and LJ Collier. 

The Seahawks have just four picks in next month's draft and a number of holes to fill. A Wilson trade, while a tough financial pill to swallow and a sad end to one of the best underdog stories in recent memory, gives the team its best chance to rebuild. 

For Wilson, a change of scenery would give him a chance to earn the credit he believes he deserves. His lone Super Bowl win was overshadowed by Seattle's "Legion of Boom" secondary and his goal-line throw to Malcolm Butler the season after has become his most memorable play in recent years. The right situation could help him get back on top and recalibrate his legacy. 

The Seahawks don't have a lot of time to make something happen, which is something their beleaguered quarterback knows all too well. 

Dak's All, Folks!

All eyes will be on the quarterback position this NFL offseason as nearly a third of the league’s teams will be in the market for new signal callers when business opens on March 15. This year’s draft could see as many as four passers go in the top 10, starting with Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, who is expected to go to the Jacksonville Jaguars with the No. 1 overall pick. Veterans such as Carson Wentz (Colts), Matthew Stafford (Rams) and Jared Goff (Lions) all found new homes earlier this year while Houston Texans dual threat Deshaun Watson desperately awaits the trade he demanded back in January. 

Another name to keep an eye on is Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. Despite going down with a gruesome ankle injury in Week 5 that required multiple surgeries, the 27-year-old is the top free agent on the market and a shade below Watson among potential QB targets. 

The Cowboys are expected to give their star QB the franchise tag for the second offseason in a row, but ESPN’s Mike Greenberg had interesting advice for America’s Team on the 2/16 edition of Get Up!:

“Jerry Jones has screwed this situation up so badly, has put himself into a position where it is going to be so expensive to keep Dak Prescott, that right now, realistically, the best thing they can do is sign and trade him and rebuild. Because even with him they’re a bad team. They’re not a Super Bowl contender or anything close even with him.”

Greeny isn’t wrong. A second franchise tag for Prescott would bring his salary to close $37 million for next season. Additionally, while Dak was on pace to put up historic numbers before his 2020 season was cut short, the Cowboys were 1-3 in games he started and finished last year. The team has also only made the playoffs twice since Prescott took over as starter in 2016. 

Owner Jerry Jones is a shrewd negotiator who has presided over holdouts from the likes of Emmitt Smith, Dez Bryant and most recently Ezekiel Elliott during his time running the team. While Prescott deserves a new contract, committing big money to a star passer coming off a serious injury doesn’t fix a leaky defense or make up for the play-calling ineptitude of head coach Mike McCarthy. According to ESPN's Todd Archer, the Cowboys are trying to get a deal done by March 9, which is the deadline for teams to officially place the franchise tag. If that date passes without Prescott's signature on a new contract, things could get interesting.

With plenty of teams looking for a quarterback of Prescott’s caliber and Dallas having so many holes to fill, a tag-and-trade, like Greenberg suggests, makes a ton of sense. The problem is no deal can happen without Prescott’s permission. Regardless, here are Prescott’s options if he opts for greener pastures elsewhere. 

New York Jets: With nearly $68 million in cap space and a bevy of draft picks, no team is better equipped to make a move for Prescott (or any QB, for that matter) than the Jets. New York also has the No. 2 overall pick, which they could use on Ohio State’s Justin Fields or BYU’s Zach Wilson while spending money to address other areas. If Gang Green does decide to bring in a new signal caller, they could dangle 2018 No. 3 overall pick Sam Darnold to acquire even more assets or recoup whatever they give up in a trade.

Much like the New Orleans Saints did with Drew Brees in 2006, the Jets could fix their biggest need behind center before the draft and then use the picks to continue building around whoever the new face of the franchise is. New York could offer their other first-round pick (No. 23 overall, from Seattle) along with another pick next year to acquire Prescott. They could even include Darnold or swap spots with Dallas, who own the 10th pick. 

The downside for Prescott is the Jets currently possess one of the worst supporting casts in the league. Going from having Zeke, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and a top-flight offensive line to Jamison Crowder and a front five that allowed 43 sacks last season is quite the steep drop. Prescott would also go from a state with no income tax to a tri-state area that is among the highest in the nation. Both points make a trip to the northeast a tough sell. 

Miami Dolphins: To be clear, the Dolphins don’t need a quarterback. After spending all of 2019 “tanking for Tua”, Miami got its wish when Tagovailoa slipped to them in last year’s draft. The former Alabama product didn’t wow as a rookie but his numbers (1,923 total yards and 14 combined touchdowns with just five interceptions and a 6-3 record as starter) are respectable enough to find the calls for him to be replaced confounding.

However, while Tagovailoa potentially has a bright future, he doesn’t possess the present value of Prescott (or Watson, who seems to be Miami’s top target). Like the Jets, the Dolphins own two first-round picks (No. 3, from Houston, and No. 18) in this year’s draft but does not own a second first-rounder next year. They do have two second-round picks this year though. An offer revolving around No. 18 and Tagovailoa could pique Dallas’ interest and the Dolphins’ flirtation with a playoff spot last season would make them more enticing to Prescott than New York. 

If the Dolphins did find a way to add Prescott, they’d have to then address their woeful offensive line and shore up a running game that lacks a real bellcow.

Houston Texans: The Texans are adamant on not giving in to Deshaun Watson’s demands but that seems like posturing at this point. Watson didn’t even wait until the season was finished to declare he was finished in Houston, which should give you an idea of how desperate he is to get out of town. 

If or when Houston decides to move on from its 25-year-old franchise QB, it will likely look to trade him for a bevy of picks that will allow them to rebuild a roster dismantled by former head coach/GM Bill O’Brien and current front office villain Jack Easterbay.  

However, if it is proven talent that Houston seeks, they won’t find much better than Prescott. 

Dallas isn’t on Watson’s list of preferred destinations but an offense with this much talent shouldn’t be a hard sell. A Prescott-for-Watson swap would be one of the rare instances where Dallas would have to give up more to make the deal fair, as Watson is the better player of the two. 

The other obstacle is convincing Prescott to stay within state borders to commandeer a team with holes everywhere and no capital to fill them. 

Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have made their desire to upgrade behind center pretty obvious in recent weeks. They reportedly made a call to Detroit to acquire Matt Stafford before he was shipped off to Los Angeles and are in the process of clearing cap space for a run at Deshaun Watson. 

The rumors come much to the chagrin of Teddy Bridgewater, who signed a three-year, $63 million deal with Carolina last March. Bridgewater disassociated himself from the Panthers on social media as he prepares to either be traded or replaced or both. Teddy Two Gloves is an adequate starting quarterback but his 15-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 15 games this past season doesn’t instill much hope in him being a long-term answer. 

The Panthers’ pursuit of Watson makes sense. He played college ball two hours down the road at Clemson and putting him in the same backfield as Christian McCaffrey (assuming they can swing a deal without including CMC) would bring that offense to another level. If they can’t bring Watson back to Flair Country, Carolina could pivot to Prescott or hope one of the draft’s top QBs fall to them at No. 8.

As for Prescott, there’s a lot to like about a potential move to Carolina. McCaffrey is the league’s best all-purpose running back and the Panthers have two 1,000 yard receivers in DJ Moore and Robby Anderson (Fellow wideout Curtis Samuel was 149 yards short of 1K, but he’s a free agent). The offensive line needs work, but pairing Prescott and emerging head coach Matt Rhule together in this offense could make the Panthers a contender in a weak NFC. 

The Panthers allegedly dangled their first-round pick and Bridgewater in a deal for Stafford, and that would likely be the starting ground of any proposal for Watson or Prescott. For Dallas, the prospect of holding two picks in the top 10 and having a stopgap QB in Bridgewater should put Carolina at the top of their speed dial. 

New England Patriots: Like the rest of the world, 2020 was a rough year for Patriots coach Bill Belichick. His team missed the playoffs for the first time in 11 years as it attempted to solider on without Tom Brady after 20 seasons in New England. Then, he had to watch the former face of his franchise hoist another Super Bowl trophy without him. 

Despite all the preseason comeback hype, Cam Newton couldn’t find his MVP form (or even a Pro Bowl form) in his first (and likely only) season with the Pats. He finished with 2,657 yards and just eight touchdowns while rushing for 592 yards in 15 games. Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer did even less to instill confidence in the Patriots’ passing game, which is a big reason why The Athletic’s Jeff Howe is reporting New England has “had conversations regarding every potential  (quarterback) trade target in the league”. 

That list is sure to include the likes of Deshaun Watson, Teddy Bridgewater, the Raiders’ Marcus Mariota and former Patriots heir apparent Jimmy Garoppolo (now with the Niners). It’s unclear whether the Patriots would be interested in Prescott, but the team doing its due diligence on veteran QBs suggests they aren’t looking to put a rookie in charge of the offense next season. 

Picking 15th in this year’s draft, New England is probably out of the Justin Fields/Zach Wilson/Trey Lance range anyway. They could use the pick as the key piece to a Prescott trade, but this isn’t the Patriots teams of years past with a war chest of selections to barter with. A mid-first this year and a (likely) mid-to-late first next year isn’t enticing the Cowboys unless they get desperate or Dak is adamant on coming to New England.

Still, if the Patriots are exploring every option for a new QB, it’s only a matter of time before they hit Jerry Jones’ phone. 

San Francisco 49ers: The Niners were the latest victim of the dreaded Super Bowl Hangover as injuries ravaged one of the league’s most promising teams. Even before last season’s disappointing 6-10 finish, the need for QB help was evident as Jimmy Garoppolo has struggled with consistency and staying healthy. Due $24 million in each of the next two seasons, Jimmy G is likely to be cut or traded by the cap-strapped Niners this spring. A reunion in New England seems like the best bet, but regardless of the 29-year-old’s future, San Francisco will be looking for another passer. 

Of Prescott’s potential suitors, the Niners represent Dak’s best chance at contending for a championship. They are a year removed from playing in the Super Bowl and possess one of the best young defenses in the league, provided everyone comes back healthy and cap restraints don’t force the team to make drastic changes. Running backs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson are an underrated 1-2 punch on the ground while All-Pro tight end George Kittle, WR Brandon Aiyuk and WR Deebo Samuel would give Prescott a solid group of targets.

Garoppolo isn’t likely to fetch much in a trade but any picks headed San Francisco’s way could be used along with their 12th overall pick and future selections in a deal for Prescott. They could even throw in pass rusher Dee Ford, which would save the Niners $15.6 million next season and would be a huge addition for a Cowboys defense that needs everything. 

The Long Shots

Washington Football Team: There’s no doubt the defending NFC East champions need a new QB after trotting out the three-headed monster of Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins and Taylor Heineke last season, but there’s a better chance of Jerry Jones kneeling for the anthem than him trading his franchise QB to his biggest rival. 

Chicago Bears: Chicago didn’t make an offer for Carson Wentz, nor did they show interest in Matt Stafford or Jared Goff. They clearly need an upgrade from Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles, but don’t have the draft capital to swing a deal for Deshaun Watson or even Dak Prescott. Are they waiting for free agency? Swinging lower for someone like Marcus Mariota or Teddy Bridgewater? Holding out for a cap casualty like Ben Roethlisberger? Hoping a top QB prospect falls? Time will tell, but they should definitely be in the market for a new passer.

New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees has likely played his last NFL snap, leaving a huge void on one of the league’s most potent offenses. The team will likely re-sign Jameis Winston to pair with Tim Tebow clone Taysom Hill but the prospect of Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas playing alongside Dak Prescott or Deshaun Watson is a conversation worth having. Unfortunately, the Saints’ picking at the bottom of the draft limits that convo to pipe dream status unless the Cowboys or Texans are just desperate to do whatever it takes to deprive Tom Brady of his eighth ring.

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings’ $96 million Kirk Cousins experiment hasn’t led to any lengthy postseason runs yet but the team is in salary cap hell That means no upgrades are coming unless they find a team willing to inherit the $66 million Cousins is owed over the next two seasons. Dallas coach Mike McCarthy is very familiar with Cousins from his time coaching against him with the Packers, but even he’s not foolish enough to talk his bosses into acquiring arguably the worst contract in football. 

On the flip side, Cousins hasn’t been terrible and he could thrive with this amount of talent around him in a return to a division he knows well from his Washington days. As for Prescott, a Dalvin Cook-Adam Thielen-Justin Jefferson-Irv Smith quartet of weapons almost compensates for the fact he’ll be running for his life behind Minnesota’s turnstile offensive line.