Week 3 Picks

Last week 8-8

Season: 12-20

Browns (-4.5) over Steelers

After giving us Josh Allen vs Matt Stafford and Patrick Mahomes vs Justin Herbert in back-to-back weeks, the NFL brings the Thursday Night Football momentum to a screeching halt with a battle between two bottom-five starting QBs, Mitch Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett. It’s hard to get excited about Pittsburgh until they make the switch to Kenny Pickett at QB and/or get TJ Watt back. Cleveland with the home edge by a score.

Texans (+3) over Bears

I don’t know if tying with the Colts and narrowly losing to the Broncos is a flex but I expect the Texans to remain competitive enough with a Bears team still finding its footing offensively to cover.

Raiders (-2.5) over Titans

The Raiders are better than their 0-2 record. The Titans are not.

Chiefs (-5.5) over Colts

The bright side for the Colts is, after this, they get Tennessee at home, @Denver, a rematch with the Jags at home and then Tennessee again. Frank Reich doesn’t emerge .500 or better from that stretch, it’s over for him.

Dolphins (+4.5) over Bills

Riding a 2-0 start and a 6 TD game from Tua, the Dolphins have enough going for them to keep it close at home against the best team in the AFC. Bills by a field goal.

Lions (+5) over Vikings

The Lions have quietly scored 71 points in the first two games and Jared Goff is playing the best football of his pro career. Detroit with the upset.

Ravens (-2.5) over Patriots

New England doesn’t have enough on O to keep up with Lamar Jackson or enough on D to stop him. Ravens win it going away.

Jets (+6) over Bengals

Cincy is 0-2 vs Mitch Trubisky and Cooper Rush. Joe Flacco is better than both of those guys and this Jets team is feisty. Until the Bengals can protect Joe Burrow, it’s hard to see them covering anything over a three-point spread.

Eagles (-6.5) over Commanders

Carson Wentz is having a career resurgence after being thrown out of Philly and Indy in back to back seasons, but the Eagles are too well-rounded to lose to a Commanders team that could easily be 0-2 right now.

Saints (-2.5) over Panthers

Despite their offensive weaponry, the Saints haven’t been much to write home about but this Panthers team finds ways to lose close games.

Jaguars (+3) over Chargers

With potentially no Justin Herbert suiting up for the Chargers and the rest of the division in tough games, this is a golden opportunity for the Jags to add to their AFC South lead.

Rams (-3.5) over Cardinals

Rams have too much on both sides of the ball to fall prey to the Kyler Murray magic show.

Falcons (+1) over Seahawks

This could either way but hopefully it ends with DK Metcalf and Kyle Pitts finds their respective ways off the milk carton.

Niners (-1.5) over Broncos

The $245 million Denver gave Russell Wilson might go down as the worst contract in the history of football.

Cowboys (+1) over Giants

Don’t let the stench of a Daniel Jones-Cooper Rush prime time showdown distract you from the star power of Micah Parsons and finally getting to see what Giants rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux can do.

Week 2 Picks

Week 1 was particularly dreadful but, as a glutton for punishment, I'm in this for the long haul.

Some of you buried me after Week 1. Bury me again. I don’t care. I’m back to work.

Last week: 4-12
Season: 4-12

Chiefs (-4) over Chargers

Patrick Mahomes really misses Tyreek Hill, huh? While other quarterbacks struggled without their dearly departed top targets, Mahomes carved up an overwhelmed Cardinals defense to the tune of 360 yards and five touchdowns. This time around, he gets Justin Herbert and the Chargers at home on a short week. Herbert (270 yards, 3 TDs in Week 1) is better equipped to go throw for throw with Mahomes than Kyler Murray was but the loss of Keenan Allen takes a trusted weapon out of the arsenal. LA’s best hope is their two dynamic pass rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, who combined for 4.5 sacks against Las Vegas, disrupting the Chiefs’ passing game. This could go down to the wire but Mahomes has the momentum and the homefield advantage. KC by a score.

Dolphins (+3.5) over Ravens

The Dolphins and Ravens were one of the few teams with decisive Week 1 wins. It helped that they were up against the Patriots and Jets, respectively. Lamar Jackson sputtered out the gate last week before finding his groove in the second half against a Jets defense that was on the field for too long. He’ll face a tougher test this time around against a Miami team that made Mac Jones’ life miserable last week. Meanwhile, after giving up 309 yards (most of it in garbage time) to old pal Joe Flacco, Baltimore’s D will be tasked with slowing down Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. This one will be close but Miami takes it. 

 

Giants (-2) over Panthers 

The skids were greased for Baker Mayfield to get his revenge against his old team and prove his detractors wrong last week. Instead, Mayfield completed less than 60 percent of his passes and took an L from a Jacoby Brissett-led Browns team. Giants QB Daniel Jones isn’t much better than Brissett but he and a rejuvenated Saquon Barkley should be enough to hold off Carolina at home. 

 

Bucs (-2.5) over Saints

Injuries to both offenses almost assures this will be a low-scoring affair. The Bucs could potentially be without two more starters on the offensive line, tackles Donovan Smith (doubtful) and Tristan Wirfs (questionable), while RB Leonard Fournette, WR Julio Jones and Mike Evans are all banged up. 45-year-old Tom Brady is also starting to show his age, as well. For New Orleans, RB Alvin Kamara will sit while QB Jameis Winston will play with a sore back. It’s possible the Saints defense takes advantage of Tampa Bay’s patchwork o-line to  pull off the upset but I think Brady has enough tricks up his sleeve to win by a FG. 

Jets (+6.5) over Browns 

The Jets defense looked feisty for a good portion of their clash against Baltimore before Lamar Jackson eventually took over. Jacoby Brissett is a long way from being Lamar Jackson and expecting the Browns to win by at least a touchdown seems a bit ambitious. At the very least, New York keeps this one close but it wouldn’t be a shock if they win outright. 

Colts (+3) over Jaguars

This feels like a trap. The Jags were a couple missed plays from stealing a win from the Commanders and now get a Colts team that had to fight just to tie with the Texans. Indy will also be without top wideout Michael Pittman, which makes things even more complicated. The Colts starting out winless by failing to beat two of the worst teams from last season in back-to-back weeks would be a nightmare, which is why I think they’ll desperately lean on RB Jonathan Taylor to cover. 

 

Steelers (+2.5) over Patriots

The Steelers will miss TJ Watt as he nurses a torn pec but they still survived Cincinnati last week without the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Assuming they don’t lose anyone else, the Steelers have enough talent to put away the suddenly lowly Patriots. 

Lions (-1.5) over Commanders 

Wait, is Carson Wentz good again? Time will tell. After notching 313 yards and four scores against the Jaguars, Wentz gets a slightly tougher challenge against a Lions team that refused to give up against Philly last week. Detroit looks like it’s buying into Dan Campbell’s penchant for grit and that non-stop effort gives them the edge over Washington.

Rams (-10) over Falcons

The Rams had 10 days to prepare for a Falcons team that — stop me if you heard this before — blew a fourth quarter lead last week. Double-digit spreads are a tough pull to swallow but Los Angeles is looking to get back on track after being embarrassed in the season opener and beating up on a rebuilding Falcons team is the way to do it. 

 

Seahawks (+9) over Niners

The jury is out as to whether Seattle is good or Denver was that bad but nearly double-digit underdogs to a Niners team that lost to the lowly Bears in a monsoon is criminal. Geno Smith will be hard-pressed to repeat starting out 14-for-14 like he did in the win over the Broncos but out-dueling a Trey Lance-led offense playing without Eli Mitchell and George Kittle is certainly in his purviews. 

 

Texans (+10) over Broncos

Another huge spread that doesn’t make spend. Denver is playing on a short week and coming off a road loss to the Seahawks. How are they 10-points better than a Texans squad that held off the Colts? It’s possible the Broncos learned from their mistakes and bounce back but I need to see more before I trust them as overwhelming favorites against anyone. 

 

Bengals (-7) over Cowboys

Five words for you: Cowboys starting quarterback Cooper Rush.

Bengals by a lot. 

Raiders (-5) over Cardinals

A toothless Cardinals defense that was decimated by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last week is the perfect remedy for a Raiders offense that hasn’t reached its full potential yet. Until Kyler Murray gets some of his weapons back, it’s hard to envision him keeping up with any of his colleagues, let alone Derek Carr and Las Vegas’ three-headed monster. 

Packers (-10) over Bears

It’s important not to panic after Green Bay’s disappointing showing last week against Minnesota. The Packers got blown out in their opener last year and still went on to finish tied for the league’s best regular season record. Aaron Rodgers’ history of owning the Bears is well-stated and, while trusting this banged up offense to win by double digits is risky, this is the kind of game the Packers need to regain their confidence. 

 

Bills (-10) over Titans 

A few things you should know:

• Josh Allen lit up the defending Super Bowl champions for 353 total yards and four touchdowns. 
• Allen and the Bills had 10 days to prepare for the Titans.
• The Titans lost to the Giants at home seven days ago. 
• Ryan Tannehill had two touchdown passes in the game, both to RB Dontrell Hilliard.
• Dontrell Hilliard is out this week with a hamstring injury. 

The Bills will not only cover, but I’m predicting a shutout here. 

Vikings (+2.5) over Eagles

Semi-related note: I love the idea of two Monday night games. It should be the norm every week and the league should just axe Thursday night. 

This was the hardest game to call. You know the Vikings will force-feed Justin Jefferson the ball after last week’s 9-184-2 performance and, while I’d like to think the Eagles will be better prepared for this than the Packers were, it’s important to remember the Lions moved the ball pretty well on this Philly defense last week. This has shootout potential but, right now, I trust Minnesota’s pass rush to be more disruptive than Philly’s

2022 NFL Preview/Week 1 Picks

A new NFL season gets underway tonight, which means it's time for the annual NFL Predictions Sure To Go Wrong followed by the first of a (hopefully) weekly attempt at picking games. 

AFC East: Buffalo Bills

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts

AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers

Wild Cards

5. Cincinnati Bengals

6. Las Vegas Raiders

7. Kansas City Chiefs

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC North: Green Bay Packers

NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC West:  Los Angeles Rams

Wild Cards

5. San Francisco 49ers

6. Dallas Cowboys

7. New Orleans Saints

NFC Championship: Eagles over Rams
AFC Championship: Bills over Chargers
Super Bowl: Bills over Eagles

MVP: Justin Herbert, QB, LA Chargers
Off. Player of the Year: Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Def. Player of the Year: Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns
Off. Rookie of the Year: Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Def. Rookie of the Year: Aiden Hutchinson, DE, Detroit Lions
Comeback Player of the Year: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
Coach of the Year: Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers

Week 1 Picks

Bills (-2.5) over Rams

The NFL finally gets it right with a Super Bowl preview of a season opener between the two most balanced teams in the league. MVP candidate Josh Allen has an embarrassment of riches surrounding him while the Bills defense is bolstered by the arrival of pass rusher (and former Ram) Von Miller. Meanwhile, the Rams partnered reigning Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp with Pro Bowler Allen Robinson while adding All-Pro linebacker Bobby Wagner to a defense that already includes future Hall of Famers Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey.

Even with the star power on the respective defenses, this has plenty of shootout potential with the game coming down to whoever has the ball last. Allen's ability to make plays with his arm and feet gives Buffalo the edge here. Bills by 6 in an early Game of the Year contender.

Ravens (-6.5) over Jets

The Jets will be better than they have been in the past decade but injuries are already cutting into the team’s potential. New York will attempt to protect 37-year-old Joe Flacco, filling in for hobbled MILF hunter Zach Wilson, behind a shaky offensive already down two tackles against an aggressive Baltimore pass rush. Making matters worse for Gang Green, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will be playing with an extra chip on his shoulder as he’s pursuing a new contract.

If the Jets can keep Flacco upright, they can make this a game but this a battle of promise vs proven and the Ravens should win this one going away.


Colts (-7) over Texans

The least talked-about of all potential Super Bowl contenders, the Colts kick off their 2022 campaign against a rebuilding Texans team still recovering from the Deshaun Watson debacle. This will be a good litmus test for Matt Ryan, Indy’s latest reclamation project at QB. Does he still have enough left in the tank or was his subpar final season in Atlanta a sign of things to come? Fortunately, Ryan can lean on MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor to get past a Houston team still finding its footing.

Eagles (-5) over Lions

HBO did a good job making the Lions look like lovable underdogs but the NFL did Detroit’s darlings no favors by opening them up against a reloaded Eagles team. Protected by one of the league’s best offensive lines and flanked by a solid supporting cast including star acquisition AJ Brown, Jalen Hurts shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball in the Motor City. Dan Campbell’s squad may lead the league in kneecap-biting, three-toe ass-kicking and grit this season but none of that saves them at home against Philly.


Niners (-6.5) over Bears

The Trey Lance era in San Francisco begins on the road against potentially the worst team in the NFL in the Chicago Bears. Bears QB Justin Fields will look to rebound from an uneven rookie season but he’ll spend most of the opening salvo running from former college teammate Nick Bosa and the Niners defense. Lance struggled with accuracy during the preseason and he’ll be without Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle. So, don’t be surprised if this is more a low-scoring affair with some big plays sprinkled throughout than a one-sided thrashing.

Bengals (-6.5) over Steelers

The dreaded Super Bowl hangover will come for the Bengals eventually but not on this day against a Steelers team quarterbacked by Mitch Trubisky. Cincy swept Pittsburgh last season and, at home riding momentum from a surprise Super Bowl run, I don’t expect that streak to end.

Panthers (-1) over Browns

Baker Mayfield has had this game circled on his calendar for months and why wouldn’t he? He’s at home in an arms race against Jacoby Brissett. Mayfield might not do enough this season to make the Browns regret trading him but debuting with a healthy Christian McCaffrey by his side will be enough for the former No. 1 overall pick to get his revenge.

Saints (-5.5) over Falcons

This is going to be a fun one. In one corner, you have Jameis Winston slinging it to Alvin Kamara, Jarvis Landry, a returning Michael Thomas and newcomer Chris Olave. In the other, you have young pups Kyle Pitts and Drake London looking to make a name for themselves. The Saints defense will keep this from getting out of hand but there’s plenty of breakout potential here.

Patriots (+3.5) over Dolphins

Miami spent the off-season doing whatever it could to get the most out of QB Tua Tagliavoa. Former Saints stud left tackle Terron Armstread was brought in to protect the blind side. Tyreek Hill was acquired from Kansas City as a deep threat and complement to last year’s rookie sensation Jaylen Waddle. Chase Edmonds and Rasheem Mostert were added to bolster the running game. However, it takes time for new pieces to gel and Patriots coach Bill Belichick can exploit any chemistry issues the Phins may have. New England doesn’t have enough firepower to go blow-for-blow but they can keep it close while Miami works out the kinks. Dolphins by 3.

Jaguars (+3) over Commanders

The Jaguars haven’t been good for awhile but opening as underdogs against a dysfunctional Commanders team is a little insulting. Last year’s No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence had a rough go of it in his rookie campaign but things are looking up. Former college teammate Travis Etienne is back. So is James Robinson. Christian Kirk came over from Arizona to be Lawrence’s top target. It’s possible the world is underrating Jacksonville and this is their coming out party.

Titans (-5) over Giants

The Giants are without their top two pass rushers AND still have Daniel Jones at QB, which is quite the double whammy for New York. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, who has electric rookie Malik Willis breathing down his neck, should have time to operate. Oh, and Derrick Henry is back. When you add all this together, it equals Big Blue going out sad.

Vikings (-1.5) over Packers

These aren’t your father’s Packers. Gone are the days of relying on Aaron Rodgers’ arm to carry them to victory. Instead, the team will rely on a two-headed running game and a revamped defense to stay relevant. Injuries will force Green Bay to lean even harder on that strategy. Allen Lazard, the replacement for the departed Davante Adams, is out with an ankle injury. Green Bay’s top two linemen, David Bahktiari and Elgton Jenkins, will also sit. Rodgers traditionally struggled against Minnesota and those troubles look like they’ll continue.

Raiders (+3.5) over Chargers

This is Bills-Rams Light to me. Justin Herbert and Derek Carr are both MVP candidates, the former more so than the latter. The Raiders made huge additions at both ends, pairing Maxx Crosby with Chandler Jones to improve the pass rush and reuniting Carr with former college teammate Davante Adams to give the passing game more punch. The Chargers have a dynamic duo on defense, as well. Former Raider and 2016 Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack was acquired from Chicago to give Joey Bosa a tag team partner on the edge. This could be a back-and-forth that comes down to the wire, which is why I’ll take Vegas and the points.

Chiefs (-6.5) over Cardinals

I’m not as high on the Chiefs as others are. Tyreek Hill was a huge loss for the passing game that can’t be filled with the trio of Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and rookie Skyy Moore. The running game is uncertain and the defense is subpar. With that said, Kansas City should still have enough to hold off the Cardinals, who are missing DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore on offense and don’t have enough talent on defense to slow down Patrick Mahomes.


Cowboys (+2.5) over Bucs

Things are starting to unravel for the Bucs in what could be Tom Brady’s final season. The offensive line lost center Ryan Jensen and G Aaron Stinnie to injury. WRs Chris Godwin and Russell Gage, who will both play against Dallas, are banged up while Julio Jones is an injury waiting to happen. Even Brady is dealing with personal matters that kept him out of camp for weeks after unretiring early in the spring. The Cowboys are missing bodies, as well, most notably left tackle Tyron Smith and WR Michael Gallup. Former Eagles great Jason Peters was signed to fill in for Smith and he has a tall order trying to fend off this vaunted Tampa Bay pass rush. Traditionally, the key to beating Brady is hitting him early and often. I like Micah Parsons' chances of disrupting Tom Terrific's flow and helping Dallas pull off the upset.

Broncos (-6) over Seahawks

There isn’t much stopping Russell Wilson from stomping the Seahawks in his return to Seattle, where he spent nine seasons and won a Super Bowl before being traded to Denver this past spring. The Broncos have an advantage in nearly every aspect and the revenge factor for Wilson should turn things ugly early.