Week 11 Picks

Last Week: 10-4

Season: 82-64-4

Titans (+3.5) over Packers

The Packers are coming off an upset win over the Cowboys thanks to a combination of bad play-calling, costly mistakes and the element of surprise. If Christian Watson’s three-touchdown breakout wasn’t a fluke, Green Bay has a shot at turning things around, but Tennessee isn’t foolish enough to get into a shootout with the Packers like Dallas did. The Titans will look to control the clock with Derrick Henry and the return of DT Jeffrey Simmons gives them an X-factor on defense. Titans crush the Packers’ momentum before it starts and pull off the “upset”.


Bears (+3.5) over Falcons

The Bears are currently at the bottom of the NFC standings, and yet, one win separates these two teams. Justin Fields is arguably the best player on the field out of both squads (at least until Atlanta figures out what to do with Kyle Pitts and Drake London), so I’m leaning towards Chicago.

Bills (-7.5) over Browns

Nothing says “home game” like having a team from Buffalo play a team from the Midwest in Detroit but six feet of snow in west New York forced the league’s hand. Once the kings of the AFC, the Bills are on a two-game losing streak and desperately need this one to take the division back from Miami.

Eagles (-6.5) over Colts

Jeff Saturday winning his coaching debut probably has more to do with how putrid Las Vegas is than any revelations he’s offering on the sidelines, but if he can upset the 8-1 Eagles, they should name the Coach of the Year award after him. I don’t see that happening though.

Jets (+3.5) over Patriots

The Patriots are the Jets’ only loss since late September and but Gang Green is coming off a bye week after a huge upset over Buffalo. They’re rested and momentum is on their side. New York evens the series here.

Rams (+2.5) over Saints

With Cooper Kupp pretty much done for the season and the Rams at 3-6, I was ready to write off the defending champs, but this Saints team is somehow worse and Dennis Allen’s insistence on sticking with Andy Dalton at QB should cost him his job. Both of these teams suck but I’ll take the points.

Giants (-3.5) over Lions

Oddsmakers still don’t believe in the Giants, hence the low spread at home against the putrid Lions. Maybe it’s a lack of faith in the league’s 22nd-ranked scoring offense? Maybe it’s because Danny Dimes is a basically a rich man’s Taysom Hill? Maybe they still believe in Detroit? Regardless of the reason, even New York’s Tecmo Bowl offense should be able to move the ball on one of the worst defensive units in football.

Ravens (-12.5) over Panthers

The three of you who read this piece every week know how leery I am of double-digit spreads but banking on Baker Mayfield to keep this game close is a fool’s errand. I’d be shocked if Baltimore doesn’t rout here.

Commanders (-3) over Texans

Despite everything that’s happened on and off the field, Washington is still in the playoff mix. As for Houston, only pride stands between the Texans and the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft.

Raiders (+2.5) over Broncos

This is a toss-up between two colossal disappointments but both Derek Carr and Josh McDaniels are playing to keep their jobs next season, so desperation is on their side.

Vikings (+1.5) over Cowboys

For weeks, I knocked the Vikings as a team that padded its record on beating bad teams. Then, they beat Buffalo in arguably the best game of the season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys choked against a Packers team that’s found ways to lose all season. If Dallas couldn’t stop rookie Christian Watson, what hope do they have against Justin Jefferson?

Bengals (-3.5) over Steelers

The lone hope for the Steelers is TJ Watt disrupts Cincinnati’s passing game enough to keep this close. Otherwise, this is going to get ugly.

Chargers (+5.5) over Chiefs

I don’t know why I still believe in the Chargers, who haven’t beaten a good team all season, but they always play the Chiefs hard and they are getting some weapons back while KC is short-handed. Chiefs win but LA keeps it close.

Niners (-8) over Cardinals

The only question about this game is whether Kyler Murray plays or not. If he suits up, Arizona could, at the very least, cover against a San Fran team still figuring things out offensively. If it’s Colt McCoy, it’s over by halftime.

Week 10 Picks

 Last Week: 8-4-1

Season: 72-60-4

Falcons (-2.5) over Panthers

There’s little incentive for Carolina to win this game and any movement in Baker Mayfield’s direction as the starting QB would indicate they’re going into the tank. Falcons should win but the bigger issue is just how horrid this TNF slate has been thus far.

Buccaneers (-2.5) over Seahawks

Geno Smith is one of the six quarterbacks Tom Brady will likely have to face off against in the playoffs, so a win here would be a huge boost to his confidence and a huge L for everyone who got jokes off at the 45-year-old’s expense this season.

Also, on paper, the first regular season NFL game in Germany looks better than anything the league has sent to London. Read into that what you will.

Vikings (+6.5) over Bills

The Vikings’ good fortune continues as, just when it looked like they were going to face real competition for the first time this season, Bills star QB Josh Allen might sit this one out. If Allen can’t go, Buffalo’s explosive offense received a massive downgrade with Case Keenum behind center, opening the door for a Minnesota upset.

(Update: Allen is expected to start.)

Bears (-3) over Lions

Given the state of the rest of the NFC and the rise of QB Justin Fields, you can’t rule out the Bears making a run towards a playoff spot. They’re 1.5 games behind San Francisco for the 7th seed and now get a Detroit team that lost the momentum it showed earlier in the season.

Titans (-2.5) over Broncos

This could be a potential trap game for the Titans. The Broncos are sneaky good on defense, Ryan Tannehill might be a little rusty after missing the last two games and Tennessee plays again in four days. I’m still taking Tennessee but I don’t feel good about it.

Chiefs (-9.5) over Jaguars

Chiefs have a shot at the AFC’s one seed and Jacksonville hasn’t been good in months. Any chance of this game being close is contingent on Trevor Lawrence showing the skills that made him a No. 1 overall pick.

Dolphins (-3.5) over Browns

Miami hasn’t lost since getting Tua back while Cleveland is coming off its first win since September. The Browns’ best chance is unleashing their one-two punch on the ground to keep the Dolphins’ O off the field.

Giants (-2.5) over Texans

The Texans are currently leading the Bryce Young Sweepstakes and have little incentive to put up a fight against a Giants team trying to secure a playoff spot. This spread should really be higher.

Steelers (-1) over Saints

TJ Watt is back, Minkah Fitzpatrick isn’t and that’s probably more than enough to hold off the Saints’ battered offense led by soon-to-be analyst Andy Dalton.

Cowboys (-3.5) over Packers

A high draft pick is Aaron Rodgers' best shot at getting a top tier weapon and the Packers are currently projected to select 8th in April's draft. In true Packers fashion, Green Bay will find a way to win this game but I refuse to pick this team the rest of the season. 

Colts (-4.5) over Raiders

The Colts caught a lot of shit for hiring Jeff Saturday as their head coach but, if you’re going to bring in a former player with no coaching experience, there are worse ways to make a debut than against the lowly Raiders. I like Indy to at least cover here.

Rams (-3) over Cardinals

My condolences to anyone that is stuck with Colt McCoy vs John Wolford on their TV screen. Rams have the better defense, so they get the nod in the Battle of the Backups.

Chargers (+7.5) over Niners

The Chargers have been beat up and underwhelming this year but thinking a Jimmy G-led Niners team is more than a touchdown better is criminal. I’m sure I’ll eat those words but I like LA here.

Eagles (-11) over Commanders

I’m always leery of double-digit spreads in obvious one-sides matchups but the Commanders are a shitshow and the Eagles could use a dominant win.

Week 9 Picks

 Last week: 8-7

Season: 64-56-3


Eagles (-13.5) over Texans

I tend to lean towards the underdog on double-digit/two-touchdown spreads but it’s hard to imagine a Brandon Cooks-less Texans team mounting enough offense to keep it close against the best team in the NFC.

Lions (+3.5) over Packers

My strategy going forward is to pick against the Packers until they prove they can win another game, even in a clash against the anemic Lions.

Falcons (+2.5) over Chargers

The Falcons have been sneaky good this season and they get Swiss Army knife Cordarelle Patterson back against a Chargers team missing its top receivers. I smell an upset here.

Dolphins (-4.5) over Bears

The Dolphins landed pass-rusher Bradley Chubb at the deadline and face a Bears team allowing the most sacks in the league. This is going to be a long day for Justin Fields.

Bengals (-7) over Panthers

It would be in the Panthers’ best interest to see what they have in P.J. Walker and tank for a higher draft spot in order to select a franchise QB next April. They’ll accomplish both by getting steamrolled by the Bengals.

Patriots (-5.5) over Colts

The Colts might have given up on head coach Frank Reich and, even if they haven’t, they aren’t healthy enough to be much of a factor the rest of the season. The Patriots, meanwhile, have a puncher’s chance at a wild card spot.

Jets (+10.5) over Bills

The Jets can’t trade shots with the Bills but the defense is good enough to slow Buffalo down and cover the spread.

Vikings (-3) over Commanders

If the Packers lose to the Lions with the Cowboys, Titans and Eagles coming up next, it’s not unrealistic to think the Vikings can have the division wrapped up by Thanksgiving as long as they continue to feast on cupcakes.

Jaguars (+2.5) over Raiders

It’s hard to see either of these teams making the playoffs at 2-5 but, even only nine weeks into the season, this feels like an eliminator game for whoever loses this one.

Seahawks (+1.5) over Cardinals

We currently live in a world where Geno Smith is the third-best QB in the NFC. You win, universe.

Bucs (-3) over Rams

The saving grace for Tom Brady is, after this one, the rest of the schedule is soft and he could still sneak into the playoffs for one last title run.

Chiefs (-12.5) over Titans

We really got Patrick Mahomes vs Malik Willis before Mahomes vs Rodgers. A year or two from now, a showdown between these two will be a bigger deal but the rookie doesn’t stand a chance against Mahomes, who hasn’t lost in a November and December since 2019.

(Note: This is all a moot point if Ryan Tannehill plays.)

Ravens (-2) over Saints

Not playing Monday night: Mark Andrews, Gus Edwards, Rashod Bateman, Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Jameis Winston.

Not watching Monday night: Most of America outside of Baltimore and New Orleans.