Week 8 NFL Picks

 A couple bad beats thwarted what could’ve been the second consecutive double-digit win week.

Last Week: 8-7
Season: 50-54-3

On to Week 8…

Vikings at Rams (+2.5)

After being out since Week 2, Cooper Kupp is finally back from a sprained ankle and will suit up for what will likely be his last game in a Rams uniform before the team trades him. Cold game. Los Angeles already shipped off LB Ernest Jones and QB Matthew Stafford was briefly the subject of trade rumors, which suggests the Rams are already throwing in the towel on this season.

Even if the Rams weren’t waving the white flag, they would be hard-pressed to upset a Vikings team that’s a late-game field goal away from still being undefeated.

Pick: Vikings

Titans at Lions (-12.5)

The Lions are playing for the top seed in the NFC. The Titans are playing for the first pick in the draft. It’s a big spread but this Tennessee team is somehow even worse without Will Levis.

Pick: Lions

Cardinals at Dolphins (-4.5)

Tua’s back and, if Miami can keep him conscious, the Dolphins’ dynamic offense will run wild on a bad Cardinals defense.

Pick: Dolphins

Eagles at Bengals (-2.5)

The Bengals are better than their 3-4 record but a run defense that’s been getting gashed all season isn’t going to be able to slow down a hot Saquon Barkley.

Pick: Eagles

Ravens at Browns (+7.5)

Baltimore shouldn’t have much trouble with Cleveland but the Ravens’ secondary is beat up and it wouldn’t surprise me if Jameis Winston puts up enough garbage time numbers to keep it within a touchdown.

Pick: Browns

Jets at Patriots (+7)

The Patriots are ready to turn on head coach Jerod Mayo, who made headlines after calling his team “soft”, and the Jets desperately need a win.

Pick: Jets

Falcons at Bucs (+1.5)

The Baker Mayfield Show was fun while it lasted but with Chris Godwin donezo for the year and Mike Evans sidelined with a hamstring injury, the Bucs aren’t going to be able to keep up with the Falcons.

Pick: Falcons

Colts at Texans (-5)

I have a hard time trusting this Texans offense until Nico Collins returns and the Colts get DeForest Buckner back to strengthen the middle of their defense. Texans win but this ends up closer than it should be.

Pick: Colts

Packers at Jaguars (+3.5)

Despite missing two games, Jordan Love leads the league with 15 touchdown passes. He also leads the league in interceptions. He shouldn’t have much trouble against a toothless Jaguars defense though.

Pick: Packers

Saints at Chargers (-7)

The Saints’ season is pretty much over as injuries have decimated an already thin roster. Chargers roll here.

Pick: Chargers

Bills at Seahawks (+3)

I’d feel better about the Seahawks’ chances if DK Metcalf was playing. Meanwhile, Amari Cooper is adjusting seamlessly to life in Buffalo. Bills win a potential shootout.

Pick: Bills

Panthers at Broncos (-11)

A stellar Broncos defense at home against Bryce Young missing his top two receivers? Sign me up.

Pick: Broncos

Chiefs at Raiders (+8.5)

             

DeAndre Hopkins makes his debut for the Chiefs, who seemingly lose someone on offense every week. Hopkins’ best days are behind him but there’s enough left in the tank to have a day against the Raiders.

Pick: Chiefs

Cowboys at Niners (-5.5)

I don’t have much faith in the Cowboys, but with the Niners potentially down their top three receivers and CMC still out, this feels like a field goal fest.

Pick: Cowboys

Giants at Steelers (-6)

The Giants continuing to score primetime games despite having one of the worst rosters in football needs to be studied. Russell Wilson completes his dominance of NY by rolling over Big Blue.

Pick: Steelers

Week 7 Picks

Six weeks in, teams are starting to find their comfort zone and so are we after the best week in recent memory.

On to Week 7…

Last Week: 10-3-1

Season: 42-47-3

Broncos at Saints (+3)

Sean Payton returns to New Orleans to face a Saints team missing its top two receivers, its starting tight end and its starting quarterback. Saints rookie Spencer Rattler had an impressive debut (270 total yards and a score) but will find it a lot harder to move the ball against a stout Broncos defense, even without top corner Patrick Surtain. Conversely, Bo Nix should have little trouble against a Saints D that’s given up 103 points in its last three games. A three-point spread was generous here. Broncos roll. 

Pick: Broncos

Patriots at Jaguars (London) (-6.5) 

A showdown between two of the worst teams in football feels more like a punishment than a reward for the people of London. The Jaguars shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown against anyone, not even a bad Patriots team. Drake Maye’s first career start had its shaky moments but there’s enough promise there for the rookie to put the final nail in Doug Pederson’s coffin with an upset across the pond.

Pick: Patriots

Bengals at Browns (+5.5) 

It’s hard to imagine the Browns winning another game with Deshaun Watson behind center and, with the trade of Amari Cooper, one has to wonder if Cleveland has already given up on the season. The Bengals are two games behind Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the North, so they could use an easy win.

Pick: Bengals

Lions at Vikings (-1)

The Aiden Hutchinson injury is tough blow for the Lions and it remains to be seen whether Detroit can muster a pass rush without him. If they can’t, they’ll have a tough time on the road against a rested Sammy Slings and the Vikings.

Pick: Vikings 

Texans at Packers (-3) 

Despite missing two games, Jordan Love is tied for second in the NFL with 12 touchdown passes. He’ll have his full complement of weapons against an injury-plagued Texans defense. The Packers also get top corner Jaire Alexander back just in time for a showdown with former division rival Stefon Diggs. If Love can avoid costly turnovers, a strong performance can put him in the MVP conversation.

Pick: Packers

Dolphins at Colts (-3) 

The Dolphins have put up a combined 30 points in their last three games since losing QB Tua Tagovailoa in Week 2 and have the league’s worst scoring offense. It’s hard to imagine them being able to keep up with the Colts, even with Anthony Richardson behind center and Jonathan Taylor out.

Pick: Colts

Eagles at Giants (+3)

Saquon Barkley has had this game circled since the Giants let him walk in the offseason and not even Nick Sirianni’s determination to get all of Philly to hate him will ruin it.

Pick: Eagles

Seahawks at Falcons (-3)

The Falcons are coming off a bye on a three-game win streak and are at home against a Seahawks team that’s dropped its last three. Gimme Atlanta.

Pick: Falcons

Titans at Bills (-9)

Mason Rudolph might give the Titans more of a chance than Will Levis but he won’t sustain enough long drives to keep Tennessee’s defense from getting worn out by a new-look Bills offense.

Pick: Bills

Panthers at Commanders (-9.5)

The Panthers are terrible, but so is the Commanders’ defense. Washington wins but doesn’t cover.

Pick: Panthers 

Raiders at Rams (-7)

With the Davante Adams saga now over, it wouldn’t surprise me if Antonio Pierce tries to prove a point by showing how the team doesn’t miss its former star receiver. Raiders with the “upset”.

Pick: Raiders

Chiefs at Niners (-2)

Injuries ruined this Super Bowl rematch and neither team has looked as dominant as a year ago, but if the Chiefs are getting points, I’ll take them.

Pick: Chiefs 

Jets at Steelers (+2)

There’s no more excuses for the Jets. Robert Salah is gone. Nate Hackett isn’t calling the plays anymore. Aaron Rodgers got his buddy Davante Adams back. Hassan Redick’s holdout is over. It’s now or never, starting with a rusty Russell Wilson and the Steelers.

Pick: Jets

Ravens at Bucs (+3.5)

This looks like the Game of the Week but Tampa Bay’s defense can’t stop anyone and that’s a problem against the reigning MVP Lamar Jackson.

Pick: Ravens 

Chargers at Cardinals (+1.5)

The schedule makers must’ve had high hopes for both of these teams when they decided to put them on Monday night. The Cardinals have been awful and Marvin Harrison Jr is trying to shake off a concussion against a very good Chargers defense.

Pick: Chargers

Week 6 NFL Picks

 Week 5 ended in a draw but it was still a better week than the one Robert Salah had.

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 32-44-2

Niners at Seahawks (+3.5)

Two of Week 5’s biggest letdowns square off in a Thursday mid-off. This is going to seem like an overreaction to last week’s walk-off loss to Arizona, but I don’t think San Francisco is good and on the road on four days rest without their best corner against Seattle’s three-headed monster at wideout sounds like a recipe for another L. The jury is still out on the Seahawks, but there’s enough talent there to at least cover.

Pick: Seahawks

Jaguars at Bears (+1)

Jacksonville being favored (even if it’s by one) is hilarious considering they’re a bottom-five NFL team and this is technically an “away” game for them. Maybe oddsmakers believe the Jags’ familiarity playing in London gives them an edge but Caleb Williams and the Bears are cooking lately. I wouldn’t be surprised if England gets another coach fired after this.

Pick: Bears

Cardinals at Packers (-5.5)

His tendency to throw mind-boggling picks aside, Jordan Love hasn’t missed a step since returning from an MCL injury. The Cardinals don’t have the defense to slow down this Packers offense and Jaire Alexander’s return might keep Green Bay from allowing Arizona get the back-door cover.

Pick: Packers

Browns at Eagles (-8.5)

Kevin Stefanski is either a glutton for punishment or is desperately trying to get the Browns to fire him. That’s the only explanation I can think of for why he’s sticking with what’s left of Deshaun Watson at this point. Cleveland’s battered offensive line can’t protect Watson, which works out for an Eagles pass rush that’s second to last in sacks. 8.5 points is a lot but the Browns might be the worst team in football.

Pick: Eagles 

Texans at Patriots (+6.5)

Drake Maye will make his first NFL start, and he should be able to move the ball better than Jacoby Brissett did, but even a Nico Collins-less Texans team should have little trouble with the worst teams in football.

Pick: Texans

Colts at Titans (-3)

Both Anthony Richardson and Will Levis have been ridiculously mid this season but duty requires me to pick a winner. Tennessee has the better defense and they’re at home. So, they get my vote to suck a little less.

Pick: Titans

Bucs at Saints (+3.5)

With Derek Carr out and the Saints slowly working themselves into position to get a top QB in next year’s draft, Spencer Rattler has an opportunity to prove he’s New Orleans’ guy. Even if Rattler performs better than his predecessor, it’s hard to imagine him winning a shootout with Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.

Pick: Bucs

Commanders at Ravens (-7)

The Commanders are the NFL’s flavor of the week, led by exciting rookie Jayden Daniels. Daniels vs Lamar Jackson should lead to plenty of highlights and, while Baltimore is a significantly better team, I think there’s enough JD magic to keep it close.

Pick: Commanders

Chargers at Broncos (+3)

The Broncos have quietly won three straight thanks to a stout defense and a continually improving Bo Nix. Nix hasn’t faced a defense quite like the Chargers’ and that step up in difficulty should bring this Denver streak to a halt.

Pick: Chargers 

Steelers at Raiders (+3)

Unless Tom Brady trades in his minority stake in the Raiders for a helmet and shoulder pads, the season is pretty much over for Las Vegas. The Steelers may be frauds but there’s enough there to beat a Raiders’ team ready to raise the white flag.

Pick: Steelers

Falcons at Panthers (+6)

That one week where it looked like the Panthers might turn things around with Andy Dalton sure was fun, right? Conversely, Kirk Cousins continues to earn his money for the Falcons and there’s no reason to think that’ll change this week.

Pick: Falcons 

Lions at Cowboys (+3.5)

Don’t let last week’s upset over the Steelers distract you from the fact Dallas has no pass rush, no running game and a bad offensive line. All of those factors pretty much nuke their chances of beating Detroit.

Pick: Lions 

Bengals at Giants (+3.5)

At some point, we’re going to have to take the Giants seriously.

That won’t be this week though. The Bengals desperately need a win, especially after squandering Joe Burrow’s 392-yard, five-touchdown performed against the Ravens last week.

Pick: Bengals

Bills at Jets (+2)

We can debate whether Robert Salah deserved to be fired this early into the season (if at all) and how much Aaron Rodgers had to do with it, but there’s no questioning the Jets’ Super Bowl chances takes a huge hit with inexperienced Jeff Ulbrich running the show.  Unless the changes on the sideline unlock New York’s immense potential, a showdown with the Bills will only add to their problems.

Pick: Bills

Week 5 NFL Picks

There’s no explanation for last week, which was an abomination. We just need to be better.

Last week: 3-12-1
Season: 25-37-2

Bucs at Falcons (-2.5)

Baker Mayfield is having an MVP caliber season. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both top four in receiving touchdowns while it’s only a matter of time before rookie Bucky Irving wrestles the starting RB away from Rachaad White. Plus, it’s hard to trust a Falcons offense that features journeymen Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud over former  top-10 pick Kyle Pitts. All of this tells me that Tampa Bay will take this one, which means I’m probably wrong.

Pick: Bucs

Jets at Vikings (in London) (-2.5)

Just as everyone predicted , the Minnesota Vikings are the only undefeated team left in the NFC and Sam Darnold leads the league in touchdown passes. Sammy Slings gets will have his work cut out for him here against a Jets pass defense that’s allowing the second-fewest yards through the air and has only given up two touchdowns all year. The Vikings defense isn’t too shabby either and Aaron Rodgers has struggled to get going against Minnesota in the past. This is shaping up to be a low-scoring, ugly affair, which is on brand for these early London games. Vikings win at “home” in what will likely be the last Jets game before Davante Adams comes to town.

Pick: Vikings

Ravens at Bengals (+2.5)

It appears the reports of Baltimore’s demise were premature after the Ravens bounced back from an 0-2 start to currently sit at .500. The same can’t be said for the Bengals, who were lucky to escape Carolina last week for their first win.

Both teams have gaping holes defensively. Opposing QBs have thrown for at least 275 yards in three of the Ravens’ last four games while the Bengals’ run defense has been getting gashed all season. The latter will be particularly troubling today as Baltimore’s offense is built around living Minotaur Derrick Henry and the league’s best running QB Lamar Jackson. Ravens control the clock and do whatever they can to keep Joe Burrow off the field.

Pick: Ravens

Browns at Commanders (-3)

 

The Cowboys, Giants and Raiders have a combined five wins. Three of those five have come against the Browns. That’s the Cleveland Browns’ season in a nutshell: they’re a bad team that other bad teams can get right against. Things will likely go from bad to worse if or when the team trades away WR Amari Cooper before the deadline and/or continues to stick with Deshaun Watson at QB.

Cleveland’s biggest loss is the benefit of the doubt and, even against a Commanders team with a middling defense and a rookie QB still learning on the job, I can’t bring myself to give them the nod.

Pick: Commanders

Bills at Texans (-1)

Are we sure the Texans are good? Houston is sitting at 3-1 and all three wins seemed like they were lucky to escape with a victory against teams they likely aren’t going to see in the postseason. The Bills will be the best team the Texans have faced thus far and Buffalo could use a bounce-back game after getting throttled by Baltimore last week.

Bills with the “upset”.

Pick: Bills

Panthers at Bears (-4)

I’ve faded the Bears all season because I don’t think Caleb Williams is as good as advertised and I don’t believe Chicago’s offensive line can protect him even if he was. The Panthers’ offense is much improved with Andy Dalton at center and rookie WR Xavier Legette filling in for Adam Thielen. My gut tells me this becomes a shootout and I fully expect the rookie “generational talent” to blink first. Panthers keep this within a field goal.

Pick: Panthers

Colts at Jaguars (-3.5)

 

Speaking of veterans who give their team a better chance to win than their younger counterpart, Joe Flacco filling in for Anthony Richardson feels like an upgrade. For all of Richardson’s talent, his decision-making is poor and his accuracy is all over the place. Flacco is, at the very least, a steady hand behind center.

Meanwhile, this feels like the final nail in Doug Pederson’s coaching coffin. Despite his denial, Pederson has lost this locker room and an 0-5 start pretty much ends Jacksonville’s season.

Pick: Colts 

Dolphins at Patriots (+1.5)

It might be over for Jerod Mayo in New England.

When people are throwing around the word “mutiny” in your first season (even if they were being a bit dramatic), it’s tough to have faith you’ll right the ship. The Dolphins are a lost cause, too, but at least they’ll get Tua back in a few weeks and the AFC East is weak enough that Miami can still make a run.

Pick: Dolphins

Cardinals at Niners (-7.5)

I had high hopes for the Cardinals once the Kyler Murray-Marvin Harrison Jr connection started to get cooking but the offense looks like a one-trick pony. The injury bug has feasted on the Niners’ offense but the defense is still steady and opposing QBs have struggled to get busy against San Francisco all season (Sam Darnold being the lone exception). Without a proven complement to Maserati Marv, Murray is going to struggle to keep up with even a batter Niners offense.

Pick: Niners

Raiders at Broncos (-2.5)

 

This website might suck at picking winners every week but, boy, were we on the money with the Davante Adams trade call in Week 1. Adams likely won’t suit up for the Raiders again, and it wouldn’t matter if he did this week against top-notch shutdown corner Pat Surtain. The Broncos’ defense has carried Denver while Bo Nix is still finding himself on offense and I expect that to still be the case here.

Pick: Broncos

Giants at Seahawks (-7)

I already had zero faith in the Giants but on the road without their two best (only) offensive weapons against a solid Seahawks team?

I won’t even waste any more of your time with this one.

Pick: Seahawks


Packers at Rams (+3)

 

The Packers found a dozen different ways to shoot themselves in the foot last week and still nearly crawled to the finish line. Despite spotting Minnesota a 28-0 lead, throwing three picks, missing a pair of field goals and committing a costly fumble, the Packers still only lost by two to the best team in the NFC. There’s no consolation prizes in the NFL but getting a Rams team ravaged by injuries feels like one. Even without Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, Jordan Love and company should roll here.

Pick: Packers

Cowboys at Steelers (-3)

A matchup that looked promising before the season now looks one-sided even after Pittsburgh came down to Earth a little last week. Dallas’ offensive line will struggle to keep TJ Watt from camping in their backfield and no Micah Parsons kills this Cowboys defense.

This might get ugly.

Pick: Steelers

Saints at Chiefs (-5.5)

Down both starting receivers and their starting running back, it’s a little wild to see Kansas City favored by more than a field goal, especially when oddsmakers loved New Orleans just a couple weeks ago. Patrick Mahomes is HIM in its truest form but this offense was struggling even before Rashee Rice went down with a knee injury. You always have to be leery of weird things happening when playing the Chiefs in prime time but the Saints’ defense is good enough to at least keep it close.

Pick: Saints