Last Week: 10-6
Season: 126-123-6
Apparently, I forgot the Jags-Titans game last week but I’m sure you did, too. On the bright side, we’re finally above .500 and it only took the better part of the regular season.
On to Week 18…
Browns at Ravens (-19.5)
This is the largest spread of the season and that would normally give me pause except for the fact that the Browns are coming off a 17-point loss to the Dolphins minus Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle. The Ravens still have a AFC North title to play for, which means a Cleveland defense that couldn’t stop Tyler Huntley is about to get dogwalked by Lamar Jackson.
Pick: Ravens
Bengals at Steelers (+2.5)
Joe Burrow and the Bengals are one of the hottest teams in football, having won four straight while Burrow’s streak of games with 3+ touchdown passes extended to eight last week. The last team to beat Cincinnati? These Pittsburgh Steelers.
A lot has changed in the Steel City since that December 1st victory. The Steelers have lost three of their last four and the only thing colder than a January night in the Steel City is this Pittsburgh offense as Russell Wilson and George Pickens are admittedly not on the same page. That doesn’t bode well for their chances of keeping up with Joe Brr, who is trying to will the Bengals into the playoffs.
Pick: Bengals
Bears at Packers (-9.5)
A Packers win here could mean the difference between a round one rematch in Philly or LA, so there’s incentive for Green Bay to play the starters for at least most of this showdown with the lowly Bears. The last game between these two ended on a tipped field goal that should’ve spelled the end of Matt Eburflus’ tenure but somehow didn’t. Chicago is somehow worse since then with interim coach Thomas Brown at the helm and Green Bay could use one last strong performance to build momentum going into the postseason.
Pick: Packers
Panthers at Falcons (-7.5)
It’s possible Kirk Cousins was the problem but not the only problem as head coach Raheem Morris’ brainfart down the stretch last week against Washington likely cost Atlanta a playoff spot. I’m also not convinced that, given how both teams have played lately, the Falcons are more-than-a-touchdown better than the Panthers.
Pick: Panthers
Commanders at Cowboys (+7)
By God! That’s Trey Lance’s music!
After 17 weeks of burying him on their depth chart, the Cowboys will finally trot out the former third overall pick in an attempt to prove his worth/boost his trade value. Washington lost the last time out against Dallas, largely due to poor special teams play, and a win here will help the Commanders avoid a round one clash with another division rival, the Philadelphia Eagles.
Washington gave up 247 yards and two scores to Cooper Rush but Lance will be hard-pressed to come close to those numbers. Unless Lance magically puts it all together, this one should be ugly.
Pick: Commanders
Texans at Titans (-1.5)
The Titans can lock up the No. 2 overall pick with a loss and I’m not sure that, even if they tried, they could beat the Texans’ B-Team. For Will Levis, this is his last chance to prove he’s starter material before Tennessee decides whether to bring in Shadeur Sanders or Cam Ward this spring. Houston’s been shaky all season and it can’t go above and beyond the fourth seed but they should still have enough to put Brian Callahan out of his misery.
Pick: Texans
Jaguars at Colts (-3.5)
It’s one thing to lose to the Giants. It’s another thing to lose and give up 45 points to one of the worst offenses in football in the process. That’s the type of loss that should lead to a team cleaning house but it likely won’t…..unless Indianapolis manages to double down with a bad loss to equally inept Jacksonville. It’s understandable to think Jacksonville can replicate New York’s formula from last week.
Young journeyman QB with a live arm? Check.
Dynamic rookie receiver? Check.
Passable run game? Check.
Jacksonville already beat Indianapolis once this season and that was before the Colts imploded. At the very least, the Jags could cover.
Pick: Jaguars
Bills at Patriots (+3.5)
There’s plenty of incentive for the Bills to lay down here. Buffalo is locked in to the two seed and a win here cements New England at the top of the draft. Do the Bills really want to give their division rival the opportunity to take the best player in the draft or swing a trade that could set the Patriots up for years to come? So, I fully expect this to be an exhibition of two teams doing their best not to win, and I don’t think there’s a team better at losing this season than the Pats.
Pick: Bills
Giants at Eagles (-2.5)
I understand the rationale behind Philly benching its starters but would there have been a better storyline going into a mundane Week 18 than Saquon Barkley going for the rushing record against the team that let him walk last spring? The Giants jeopardized the No. 1 pick in the draft by trying too hard against the Colts last week, and while a win here likely saves jobs, I don’t anticipate them making the same mistake twice, even against Kenny “Baby Hands” Pickett.
Pick: Eagles
Saints at Bucs (-14.5)
Baker Mayfield will likely finish with at least 4500 passing yards and 40 touchdowns while leading the Bucs to a division title and he’ll still be lucky to finish fifth in MVP voting.
What does that have to do with this week’s game against the pathetic Saints?
Not much except this is an opportunity for Baker to pad his already impressive stats.
Pick: Bucs
Chiefs at Broncos (-11)
All the Broncos need to make an improbable playoff appearance is a home win over Carson Wentz and the Chiefs backups. If you’re Kansas City, this comes down to would you rather have a third showdown with the Broncos next week or face a white-hot Bengals team that hasn’t lost in over a month? 11 points is steep but I don’t anticipate KC putting up much of a fight against a motivated Broncos defense.
Pick: Broncos
Chargers at Raiders (+7)
Four months from now after the Raiders have moved on from Antonio Pierce, we will look back at the decision to win two meaningless games in the final month that likely made the difference between having the number one overall pick and having to sell the farm for it. With the Chargers needing a win to nab the fifth seed and an advantageous meeting with the Texans, this has the makings of a one-sided drubbing that will likely be the final nail in AP’s coffin.
Pick: Chargers
Seahawks at Rams (+7.5)
The Rams are in the playoffs but the offense is still on a milk carton. Since dropping 44 points on Buffalo in Week 14, Los Angeles has matched that total in their past three games COMBINED. Seattle offers a chance to get back on track but so did Arizona last week and the Jets the week before that. Until the Rams live up to their potential, they’re more like lambs to the slaughter.
Pick: Seahawks
Dolphins at Jets (-1)
In his latest attempt to draw attention to himself, Aaron Rodgers is hinting at retiring after the season and it honestly can’t happen soon enough. Rodgers’ two-year tenure in the Meadowlands has been nothing short of an overdramatic unmitigated disaster that somehow set the Jets back instead of progressed them forward. Whether he hangs it up or not, Rodgers should never play another snap for the Jets and the team should let Tyrod Taylor finish it out in attempt to end the season on a good note.
Since they won’t, it’s only fitting Gang Green goes out sad against Tyler Huntley and the not-quite-dead-yet Dolphins.
Pick: Dolphins
Niners at Cardinals (-4.5)
Both of these teams are awful but I actually feel better about Josh Dobbs and what’s left of the Niners than a Cardinals team that crashed out weeks ago.
Pick: Niners
Vikings at Lions (-3)
I don’t know what the Vikings can get for JJ McCarthy and it has to be disappointing to take 30 cents on the dollar for a guy you drafted as your QB of future before he’s ever taken an NFL snap, but this is Sam Darnold’s team now. Darnold’s rise from punchline to Pro Bowler has to be almost as unlikely as the Vikings and Lions playing for the top seed in the NFC in the final week of the season.
Neither team has any glaring weaknesses and the last one came down to a Jake Bates field goal in the closing seconds. This feels like more of the same, so I’ll take the points.
Pick: Vikings
