NFL Conference Championship Picks

 

Last Week: 2-2

Playoffs: 5-5

‘Manders. Iggles. Bills. Refs, er, Chiefs.

Four teams remain. Two advance. 

Commanders at Eagles (-6)

This game has to be a Giants fan’s worst nightmare. In addition to two division rivals going at it for a shot at the Super Bowl, there’s former Giants fan favorite Saquon Barkley having the season of his life and being a win away from playing for his first championship. 

The Commanders have been a fun story and knowing their continued success makes Dan Snyder angry makes it hard to root against them but this Eagles team with Saquon feels inevitable. 

Pick: Eagles

Bills at Chiefs (-1.5)

Josh Allen has never beaten Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, so a Chiefs victory feels like as much of a lock as iffy officiating tainting this game. 

Like most of America, I’m tired of seeing the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, especially this season as the team has gotten by each week with smoke and mirrors. Additionally, with Detroit out, Bills Mafia now owns the mantle as the fan base most in need of a championship, so it would be nice to see the Bills attempt to put an end to decades of postseason misery.

Pick: Bills  

NFL Divisional Round Picks

 Last Week: 3-3

Playoffs: 3-3

Season: 137-134-6

A couple big upsets submarined what could’ve been a great first week of the ‘yoffs. This week doesn’t look to be any easier. 

On to the divisional round….

Texans at Chiefs (-8.5)

Despite being road underdogs, the Texans might see a lot of betting action this week for a number of reasons: 

1. A lot of people hate the Chiefs and want to see them lose.
2. Like this very website, you thought the Texans were going to get cooked by the Chargers and now you’re chasing that money back. 
3. Despite being 15-1, Kansas City hasn’t blown out a lot of teams and 8.5 points is a big undertaking against a capable team that just dropped 32 points on one of the best defenses in football.
4. The Chiefs’ starters haven’t played in two weeks, so there’s the possibility that an offense that’s sputtered all season is rusty out of the gate.

On the flip side, Mahomes is undefeated in the divisional round and, if you’re part of the tin foil minority that believes the NFL greases the skids for the Chiefs, you probably believe there’s no way the league deprives us of either Lamar vs Mahomes or Mahomes vs Josh Allen in the championship game.

Emotional allegiances aside, Texans put up enough of a fight to cover but the ride ends here. 

Pick: Texans 

Commanders at Lions (-9.5)

The Lions feel like a team of destiny and this is the closest they’ve come to being NFC favorites in franchise history. 

Like Kansas City, there’s the possibility of Detroit having some rust to shake off and the Lions’ defense has been prone to big plays this season. Washington also proved that, if things get close down the stretch, Jayden Daniels has the moxie to come out on top. 

Does that mean Washington will pull off another upset? No. Do I think this will be closer than the spread indicates? Definitely.

Pick: Commanders 

Rams at Eagles (-6)

Given everything going on in California, it’s possible the Rams have leapfrogged Detroit and Buffalo as the sentimental favorites among casuals and fans without a dog still in the fight. Los Angeles’ once non-existent defense made a surprise cameo last week, sacking Sam Darnold nine times, forcing two turnovers (one of which being returned for a score) and severely impacting Darnold’s chances of a big payday this offseason. 

However, they’ll be hard-pressed to have a repeat performance against the Eagles. Philadelphia’s offensive line allowed just 45 sacks all season and Jalen Hurts is significantly more mobile than Sam Darnold. Philadelphia also has a human wrecking ball in NFL rushing leader Saquon Barkley and the Rams have one of the worst run defenses in football. 

Much like last week against Green Bay, this feels like a game where Philly uses Saquon to control the clock and baits Matt Stafford into a couple picks. 

Give me Philly and the under.

Pick: Eagles 

Ravens at Bills (+1)

What better way to close out the second round of the playoffs than with a matchup between the two MVP frontrunners with a potential showdown with the league’s final boss, Patrick Mahomes, waiting in the wings? 

Much like they did during the regular season, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen put their respective teams on their back in the opening round. Jackson threw for 175 yards and two scores while adding 81 on the ground in yet another beat down of the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers while Allen put up 316 combined yards and a pair of scores on Denver’s stout defense. 

As evidenced by the spread, these two teams are evenly match. Both teams are top 3 in points per game, top 11 in scoring defense and top 10 in total yards. Allen will have Bills Mafia behind them while Jackson has human Minotaur Derrick Henry sharing the backfield with him. 

With bitter cold and the possibility of snow forecasted for Buffalo Sunday night, this will come down to which team runs the balls better and right now that’s Baltimore.

Pick: Ravens

NFL Wild Card Round Picks

 Last Week: 8-8

Regular Season: 134-131-6

The regular season is in the books and now it’s time for the games that really matter. 

Welcome to Wild Card weekend, everybody.

Chargers at Texans (+2.5)

If there’s a road team that feels like a mortal lock to advance this week, it’s the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers possess the league’s best scoring defense, a strong running game and a young receiving core starting to come into their own. 

Conversely, the Texans have struggled to find their way all season and benefited greatly from a pisspoor division they were still in danger of losing as recently as a month ago. 

It’s possible that, after taking a giant leap backwards in his second season, CJ shows his old form when it matters most but that’s a tough bet against a well-coached, well-rounded sneaky title contender.

Pick: Chargers

Steelers at Ravens (-9.5)

The Steelers haven’t won in a little over a month, and, when they faced the Ravens in Baltimore a few weeks ago, they lost by 17. If you’re looking for a reason to roll the dice on Pittsburgh, the cold weather might lead to a tighter, lower-scoring game, which would allow the Steelers to cover. 

There have also been instances over the years where Lamar Jackson in the playoffs isn’t quite as refined as he is during the regular season. However, with all eyes on what could Lamar’s third MVP campaign and the Steel Curtain continuing to show signs of wear, this doesn’t seem like the game where the Ravens disappoint.

Pick: Ravens

Broncos at Bills (-9)

Player A: 3,731 yards passing, 28 touchdowns, six INTs, 531 yards rushing and 12 rushing touchdowns. 

Player B: 3,775 yards passing, 29 touchdowns, 12 INTs, 430 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns.

Player A is Josh Allen and Player B is Bo Nix. 

This isn’t to say Nix is the next Allen or to suggest both QBs are in the same tier but look at how comparable their numbers are and then think of the narratives surrounding both heading into the postseason. 

One is an MVP frontrunner and leader of a top-seeded team expected to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The other is a rookie many considered to be a reach on draft who has no shot at winning ROTY honors who, to hear Bengals fans tell it, needed the Chiefs fans to lay down to make the postseason. 

Nix’s Broncos have the league’s best pass rush and one of football’s best corner in Pat Surtain and zero expectations. Isn’t it possible they can slow Allen down long enough for Nix to make a few plays to (at worst) keep it close or (at best) pull off a huge upset?

I say yes.

Pick: Broncos 

Packers at Eagles (-5.5)

The last Packers-Eagles clash was a turnover fest in Brazil in Week 1 that ended with Jordan Love’s knee getting wrecked and Philly escaping with a five-point victory. In between, Saquon Barkley ran for 109 yards and scored three touchdowns, which would be a harbinger for things to come. Since then, Barkley flirted with history, the Eagles went on a tear and the Packers went 11-6 while battling through injuries and only beating one team currently in the playoffs (Week 5 vs the Rams without their top two receivers which they still nearly blew)

On paper, this is a scarier Packers team than the one who upset the Cowboys in the wild card round last year but Green Bay hasn’t lived up to its immense potential all season and its tendency to curl up against elite competition makes it tough for even the most jaded fan to give them the benefit of the doubt. 

Pick: Eagles 

Commanders at Bucs (-3)

This figures to be the highest-scoring games of the week, maybe even the entire postseason, as neither of these teams play a lick of defense. The Bucs and Commanders are 4th and 5th, respectively, in points scored as both average just under 30 a game and both are in the top 10 in total yards. 

We also get the latest installment of the classic Mike Evans vs Marshon Lattimore rivalry. Lattimore has had the upper hand in previous matchups, holding Evans to an average of three catches for 46 yards in 13 head-to-head games. Lattimore keeping that trend going is the closest we’re going to get to defense and the best chance Washington has at pulling off the upset. With Chris Godwin out, the Bucs have leaned on Evans heavily all season and, even with Baker Mayfield having a couple big playoff wins under his belt, it will all be for naught if the Commanders shut down his top target. 

Washington lost to Tampa Bay in their season opener but a lot has changed since then. The Bucs haven’t beaten an elite team since September while Jayden Daniels is rapidly becoming one of the league’s best quarterbacks, especially in the clutch. So, if the one ends up coming down to the final minutes, my money is on the rookie.

Pick: Commanders 

Vikings at Rams (+2.5)

The last month has been suboptimal for the Rams. Despite winning three of their four and having plenty of weapons on offense, LA has scored more than 20 points just once during that span….and that was last week…against the Seahawks….in a game they lost. Making matters worse, the fires in California forced this game to be moved to Arizona and the Rams drew a 14-3 Vikings team still salty from losing the NFC’s top seed (and the NFC North) to the Lions. 

The Rams beat the Vikings earlier in the season when both were relatively healthy and Sam Darnold is coming off his worst performance of the season but I don’t think Sammy Slings drops a dud two weeks in a row with a new contract and a possible Super Bowl run at stake. 

Pick: Vikings