Week 11 NFL Picks

Last Week: 8-6

Season: 72-76-3

A strong finish last week has us in position to move above .500 for the first time since the start of Week 2.

On to Week 11…

Commanders at Eagles (-4)

The Eagles have fought off key injuries and coaching deficiencies all season to quietly sit at 7-2. They also have a chance to put some distance between themselves and the Commanders atop the NFC East. Washington has been a pleasant surprise this year but I don’t see them being able to keep up with a healthy Philly offense. I’ve also been Ben Simmons from 3 levels of bad when it comes to picking Thursday night games so feel free to fade me here.

Pick: Eagles

Jaguars at Lions (-13.5)

The Jags surprisingly put up a fight in a close loss to the Vikings and will now attempt a repeat performance against the Lions. Detroit is much better than Minnesota, but Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson has to feel the guillotine looming over his head and 14 points is a big number, especially with the Lions missing Sam LaPorta. Lions win but Jags keep it within two touchdowns.

Pick: Jaguars

Packers at Bears (+6)

The Packers have kept the Bears under their oppressive boot for the better part of two decades. Brett Favre dominated them, Aaron Rodgers owned them and Jordan Love hasn’t lost to them yet. Chicago will be breaking in a new coordinator but it’s only delaying the inevitable when the team cleans house in the offseason. Meanwhile, the Packers come off the bye finally fully healthy and, if Love can keep his tendency for backbreaking turnovers under control, Green Bay’s streak against their division rival should continue.

Pick: Packers

Ravens at Steelers (+3.5)

Somehow, two teams with a combined 14-5 record are going unnoticed when it comes to talking about AFC title contenders. Lamar Jackson is off to another MVP caliber year while Derrick Henry leads in almost all major rushing categories in his age-30 season. As for Pittsburgh, Russell Wilson hasn’t lost since regaining the starting QB job and the Steelers’ defense is second in point allowed. Traditionally, these Steelers-Ravens clashes are tight affairs, so I’m inclined to side with the team getting more than a field goal.

Pick: Steelers

Vikings at Titans (+6)

After starting the season 5-0, the Vikings seemed to have cooled off since their hot start. After dropped two straight after the bye, needed a strong second half to beat the Colts and barely squeaked by the Jags last week. Minnesota can regain momentum against godawful Will Levis and a Tennessee team that has no reason to play its way out of a top draft spot.

Pick: Vikings

Raiders at Dolphins (-7.5)

The Raiders have a revolving door at QB, the worst run game in football and no pass-catcher worth talking about. Defensively, they’re respectable, particularly against the pass, which is the Dolphins’ strong suit. Like Tennessee, Las Vegas has no reason (besides pride) to jeopardize its draft spot but they might be able to keep a rusty Miami offense from pulling away.

Pick: Raiders

Rams at Patriots (+4)

The Patriots have won two of their last three and look like a different team with rookie Drake Maye under center. They also get DT Christian Barmore back to give the defense a much-needed boost, and they’ll catch the Rams on a short week coming off a lackluster performance against the Dolphins. 

I may live to regret this but I like the Pats in an upset.

Pick: Patriots

Colts at Jets (-4)

With the exception of a Thursday night win over a Texans team missing half its offensive weapons, the Jets haven’t won a game since mid-September (oddly enough, also a Thursday nighter). The team has too much talent to be this bad but it’s hard to trust them against anyone going forward, even a Colts team that’s crawling back to Anthony Richardson as their starting QB this week.

Pick: Colts

Browns at Saints (+1.5)

Cleveland’s luck the rest of the season will be dependent on what side of the Jameis Winston coin lands. Will the Browns get the Famous Jameis who lit up the Ravens three weeks ago or the guy who couldn’t protect the ball against the Chargers before the bye? Every week is going to be a roller coaster, but a fun one. As for the Saints, it’s possible all they needed was to get rid of Dennis Allen but a depleted roster isn’t keeping up a rested Browns team.

Pick: Browns

Seahawks at Niners (-6.5)

Speaking of beat up, the Niners will be without George Kittle while Trent Williams and Nick Bosa will be hobbled. Meanwhile, the Seahawks get DK Metcalf back and need a win here to stay in the playoff hunt.

Pick: Seahawks

Falcons at Broncos (-1.5)

It’s safe to say the Broncos silenced critics who panned the team’s decision to use the 12th overall pick on Bo Nix, but the Falcons as underdogs feels like free money. Atlanta needs to make up for last week’s flop against New Orleans and a win here would give the Dirty Birds a 2.5 game lead on Tampa Bay with seven weeks left to go.

Pick: Falcons

Chiefs at Bills (-2.5)

The Bills have the AFC East pretty much locked up but a win here would give them a shot at stealing homefield advantage from the Chiefs. Buffalo QB Josh Allen is 3-1 against Kansas City in the regular season but how do you get against a Chiefs team that finds different ways to not lose each week?

Pick: Chiefs

Bengals at Chargers (-1)

Joe Burrow might throw for 5,000 yards, Ja’Marr Chase might win Offensive Player of the Year and the Bengals will still miss the playoffs. At 4-6, Cincy has quite the climb to get a wild card spot and they’ve yet to show they can beat an above .500 team this season. I expect the Chargers to control the clock to keep Burrow off the field while Los Angeles’ sixth-ranked defense does its best to slow Joe Shiesty down.

Pick: Chargers

Texans at Cowboys (+7)

I don’t envision the Cowboys winning another game this season but it would make sense to see what they have in Trey Lance, who Dallas traded a fourth-rounder for last summer. Lance has been a bust thus far but he doesn’t give America’s Team any *less* of a chance to win.

With Nico Collins back, the Texans should roll here.

Pick: Texans

Week 10 NFL Picks

Last Week: 5-10

Season: 64-70-3

Much like America this past Tuesday, I made some bad decisions that ruined all of the momentum and progress I built in recent weeks.

On to Week 10…

Bengals at Ravens (-6)

The last Bengals-Ravens showdown was an OT thriller that saw Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson go tit-for-tat putting up video game numbers en route to a Baltimore victory. With Tee Higgins and Orlando Brown not suiting up for the Bengals, I don’t expect this to be another shootout but I do think the birds sweep.

Pick: Ravens

Giants at Panthers (+6.5)

Only Roger Goodell could find a way to ruin a concept as good as early morning football. The NFL will once again attempt to expand their sport globally by making the people in Munich suffer through a showdown between two of the worse teams in football. Daniel Jones’ days as the Giants starting QB are nearing its end but he has a better supporting cast (and likely a better future) than Bryce Young.

Pick: Giants

Bills at Colts (+4)

Joe Flacco’s flop last week could be attributed to him finally showing his age or a stout Vikings defense but neither excuse will save him from potentially giving the starting job back to Anthony Richardson or taking an L at home against a solid Bills team.

Pick: Bills

Vikings at Jaguars (+7)

With Trevor Lawrence possibly out the rest of the season with a shoulder injury, Mac Jones has two months to show what he can do and maybe earn himself a starting job elsewhere next season. The Vikings also have a generous pass defense, Joe Flacco’s poor performance last week not withstanding. That’s the good news.

The bad news is Mac Jones is still Mac Jones and he hasn’t been good since his rookie season in 2021. It’s possible that, much like Sam Darnold, a change of scenery brings out the best in the former Alabama passer but I’m taking a wait-and-see approach.

Pick: Vikings

Broncos at Chiefs (-7.5)

You have to give Andy Reid credit for not only keeping the Chiefs undefeated despite a litany of injuries but somehow managing to resurrect the careers of Kareem Hunt and DeAndre Hopkins.

That being said, the Broncos always play the Chiefs tough and Kansas City has won by more than a touchdown just twice during their 8-0 run.

Pick: Broncos

Falcons at Saints (+3.5)

The Falcons disrespect by oddsmakers should be tolerated. Atlanta has won five of their last six while New Orleans loses a receiver a week to injury and their seven-game losing streak got their coach fired. This spread should be higher but either way, the Saints woes continue.

Pick: Falcons

Steelers at Commanders (-2)

Pittsburgh and Washington both made savvy moves at the trade deadline. The Steelers filled their need for a second receiver with Mike Williams and added Preston Smith from Green Bay to bolster the pass rush. Meanwhile, the Commanders saved Marshon Lattimore from New Orleans to give their middling pass defense a boost.

It’s hard to bet against Jayden Daniels, who has won seven of his last eight starts, but the Steelers haven’t lost since turning to Russell Wilson as their starter and Pittsburgh is the more balanced team.

Pick: Steelers

Niners at Bucs (+6.5)

After nine weeks sidelined by the Madden Curse, er, an Achilles injury, Christian McCaffrey is finally back. CMC’s return gives the offense a boost but the Niners will likely bring their oft-injured back along slowly in his season debut.

The Bucs have devastated by injuries but they’ve still managed to hang with Atlanta and Kansas City in back-to-back weeks. Niners win but a wild Baker Mayfield closes the gap.

Pick: Bucs

Patriots at Bears (-6)

After being anointed the next big thing, Caleb Williams has spent the last nine weeks being outperformed by fellow rookie QBs Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix. Drake Maye, who took over the Patriots QB job four weeks ago and will oppose Williams on Sunday, has two less total touchdowns in three less games. When you throw in Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr, Brian Thomas Jr and Brock Bowers, the case can be made Caleb Williams isn’t a top 10 rookie in a draft class he was supposed to be the golden prize in.

As for this week, the Bears defense will likely carry against a Patriots team that doesn’t have much talent on offense beyond Maye himself and previously benched RB Rhamondre Stevenson. Williams should be able to get things going against New England’s defense, which ranks in the bottom-10 of nearly every stat category.

Bears should roll here but all eyes will be on whether Williams will get outdueled by another one of his classmates.

Pick: Bears

Titans at Chargers (-8)

I’ll keep this brief.

Will Levis is back for the Titans. Chargers by double digits.

Pick: Chargers

Eagles at Cowboys (+7)

Assuming Dak Prescott opts for season-ending surgery on his hamstring, the last impression of his 2024 campaign will be cameras catching him saying the team that’s paying him $60 million a year to play quarterback “fucking sucks”. Dak’s contract will likely keep him around  a little longer but with the Cowboys staring down the barrel of a top-five pick in a good QB draft and Mike McCarthy unlikely to be back as head coach next season, it’s fair to wonder if Prescott ever takes another snap in Cowboys uniform.

As for this week, Saquon Barkley’s reverse hurdle was one of the greatest moves I’ve ever seen on a football field and not even Micah Parsons’ return will prevent the king of quads from running amok again.

Pick: Eagles

Jets at Cardinals (+1.5)

Oddsmakers love the Jets and their big win over the Texans last Thursday already has those thinking New York has finally turned things around.

Don’t let that distract you from the fact that the Arizona Cardinals have won three straight and currently sit atop the NFC West.

Give me Call of Duty Kyler and the revitalized red birds.

Pick: Cardinals

Lions at Texans (+3.5)

The Texans are coming off 10 days of rest after their loss to the Jets last Thursday and finally get Nico Collins back. Collins was in the midst of a career year before going down with a bad hammy, and while he’s still a game-time call, his potential return changes the complexion of this offense.

The Lions are the best team in the NFC but the Texans at mostly full strength after spending the week rallying the troops are a different beast than the one we’ve seen in recent weeks.

Pick: Texans

Dolphins at Rams (-1.5)

This is a tale of two teams heading in opposite directions after getting key players back from injury. The return of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have the Rams looking like a playoff team while the Dolphins’ losing ways haven’t stopped even with Tua back under center.

I think this will be a fun one but it’s hard to trust Miami until we have visual proof that the offense has shaken the cobwebs off.

Pick: Rams

Week 9 NFL Picks

Three straight weeks above .500 for your boy but, unlike Tyrique Stevenson, I’m not going to celebrate before it’s all over.

On to Week 9…

Last Week: 9-6

Season: 59-60-3

Texans at Jets (-2)

I’m confused how the Jets, losers of five straight including last week to one of the worst teams in football, is favored over anyone, even at home against a 6-2 Texans team missing its top two receivers. I have little faith Aaron Rodgers and company can turn this thing around, and while Houston doesn’t have the firepower to blow Gang Green out, there’s enough talent on both sides of the ball to give New York its sixth straight L.

Pick: Texans

Commanders at Giants (+4)

Jayden Daniels is making his case to win Offensive Rookie of the Year while Daniel Jones is a making a case for losing his starting job. The Giants nearly upset the Commanders a couple months ago but the days of Big Blue being a frisky underdog appear to be over.

Pick: Commanders

Broncos at Ravens (-8.5)

Despite last week’s loss to Cleveland, Baltimore has established itself as one of the best teams in football. Derrick Henry is a dark horse MVP contender, Mark Andrews is back from the dead and Diontae Johnson joins a sneaky good receiver room. Meanwhile, Denver has won five of their last six but hasn’t beat anyone worth talking about since their upset of Tampa Bay in late September. The Ravens aren’t going to have the rug pulled out from under them two weeks in a row but the Broncos’ defense is good enough to keep them from getting blown out.

Pick: Broncos

Dolphins at Bills (-6.5)

It’s possible Miami’s surprising loss to Arizona last week can be attributed to Tua shaking the rust off but going on the road to face a Buffalo team that originally put the Dolphins QB on the shelf isn’t an ideal matchup for a “get right” game. The revenge factor is in play but the Bills are even better than when these two faced off in Week 2.

Pick: Bills

Raiders at Bengals (-7.5)

Upset special! In three games without Tee Higgins this season, the Bengals are 0-3 and the offense averages just over 17 points. Higgins won’t suit up for this one and neither will RB Zack Moss. The Raiders are down bad but Cincy’s limitations on offense will make it hard for them to pull away.

Pick: Raiders

Cowboys at Falcons (-3)

Reasonable football fans didn’t have high expectations for the Cowboys but this season has somehow been worse than even we expected. Dak Prescott, the league’s highest paid player, is sporting a 10:8 TD-to-INT ratio. Ezekiel Elliott has been so awful that Dallas had to turn to the equally washed up Dalvin Cook to get the run game going. The vaunted Cowboys defense seems to put up more of a fight against reporters than opposing offenses. Head coach Mike McCarthy, already a lame duck coming into the season, is a mortal lock to not be back next year.

When you put all those factors together and put them on the road against the NFC South-leading Falcons, it’s a recipe for disaster.

Pick: Falcons

Saints at Panthers (+7)

This is a golden opportunity for Panthers QB Bryce Young to finally get out of Carolina. With the former number one overall pick on the block, what better way to build up your trade value than at home against a Saints defense giving up nearly 26 points per game? Young doesn’t have the weapons to have himself a career day (though the bar, much like him, isn’t set very high) but there’s enough there to stay within a touchdown in this mid-off with a New Orleans squad that seemingly loses a receiver every couple of weeks.

Pick: Panthers

Chargers at Browns (+1)

For the millions of people who screamed every week for the Browns to start Jameis Winston behind center, the “Famous” one’s 334-yard, three touchdown performance in an upset win over Baltimore last week was vindication. Much like Joe Flacco last year, Winston gives the Browns’ offense a spark that was never there under Deshaun Watson. He’s a cagey veteran who isn’t scared to take chances downfield. He can’t save Cleveland’s season but he can make them competitive and that should be enough against a Chargers’ offense that doesn’t score a lot.

Pick: Browns

Patriots at Titans (-3)

The Titans’ lone win this season a 31-12 beat down of the Tua-less Dolphins on Monday Night Football back in Week 4. Their leading passer was Mason Rudolph, who had 85 yards through the air. Their leading receiver was DeAndre Hopkins, who is now in Kansas City. Their two touchdown scorers that night, RBs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, both might not play this week. 

The Patriots aren’t much to get excited about either but rookie QB Drake Maye can at least move the chains a bit.

Pick: Patriots

Jaguars at Eagles (-7.5)

The Eagles are once again in a position to get Doug Pederson fired. Four years after Philly sent him packing, Dougie P is back in the house that Nick Foles built for what has to be his last game as a Jaguars coach. As if facing a tough Eagles team wasn’t hard enough, Jacksonville will be without Christian Kirk and possibly rookie Brian Thomas Jr while both of their running backs are nursing injuries. This could get ugly early.

Pick: Eagles

Bears at Cardinals (-1.5)

Chicago’s brain fart loss to Washington last week was one for the ages and it was a showcase of everything that’s wrong with the Bears: poor offensive line play, overrated QB, terrible playcalling and a lack of common sense on both sides of the ball.

This week may feel like Deja vu: on the road against a mobile, strong-armed QB and facing a toothless defense that lacks a pass rush. Assuming they’re a bit wiser here, the Bears should be able to pull this one off.

Pick: Bears

Lions at Packers (+2.5)

This is the Packers’ biggest game of the season thus far. A win here gives Green Bay control of the NFC North and a shot at top seed in the conference. The last time the Packers played the Lions with a lot at stake, they turned around their season with a win last Thanksgiving. After leaving last week with a groin injury, Jordan Love will tough it out this week. If he can manage to stay healthy and avoid the backbreaking turnovers that have been as notable as his 15 touchdown passes this season, the Pack can pull off the upset.

Pick: Packers

Rams at Seahawks (+1)

The Rams have went from a team destined to be sellers at the deadline to one with postseason aspirations now that the offense is back at full strength. The same can’t be said for the Seahawks, who will be without DK Metcalf once again and tight end Noah Fant. Seattle’s lost four of the last five and they’ll be hard-pressed to win a shootout with their offense so banged up.

Pick: Rams

Colts at Vikings (-5)

I was going to write a rant about Anthony Richardson but I got tired and couldn’t finish. Jokes aside, A-Rich is probably never regaining his starting job this season and it’ll likely be awhile before he regains the trust of the Colts or their fans.

Meanwhile, it’s hard to imagine the once-undefeated Vikings dropping three straight but the Colts are a different (better?) team with Joe Flacco under center.

Pick: Colts

Bucs at Chiefs (-9)

It doesn’t seem to matter who is at wideout for the Chiefs as Patrick Mahomes seems to get by every week. The same can be said for Baker Mayfield, who put up 334 yards and three touchdowns despite being without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

The difference is Mahomes still manages to win but Mayfield still being able to put up numbers bodes well for the Bucs’ chances of at least covering here.

Pick: Bucs

Week 8 NFL Picks

 A couple bad beats thwarted what could’ve been the second consecutive double-digit win week.

Last Week: 8-7
Season: 50-54-3

On to Week 8…

Vikings at Rams (+2.5)

After being out since Week 2, Cooper Kupp is finally back from a sprained ankle and will suit up for what will likely be his last game in a Rams uniform before the team trades him. Cold game. Los Angeles already shipped off LB Ernest Jones and QB Matthew Stafford was briefly the subject of trade rumors, which suggests the Rams are already throwing in the towel on this season.

Even if the Rams weren’t waving the white flag, they would be hard-pressed to upset a Vikings team that’s a late-game field goal away from still being undefeated.

Pick: Vikings

Titans at Lions (-12.5)

The Lions are playing for the top seed in the NFC. The Titans are playing for the first pick in the draft. It’s a big spread but this Tennessee team is somehow even worse without Will Levis.

Pick: Lions

Cardinals at Dolphins (-4.5)

Tua’s back and, if Miami can keep him conscious, the Dolphins’ dynamic offense will run wild on a bad Cardinals defense.

Pick: Dolphins

Eagles at Bengals (-2.5)

The Bengals are better than their 3-4 record but a run defense that’s been getting gashed all season isn’t going to be able to slow down a hot Saquon Barkley.

Pick: Eagles

Ravens at Browns (+7.5)

Baltimore shouldn’t have much trouble with Cleveland but the Ravens’ secondary is beat up and it wouldn’t surprise me if Jameis Winston puts up enough garbage time numbers to keep it within a touchdown.

Pick: Browns

Jets at Patriots (+7)

The Patriots are ready to turn on head coach Jerod Mayo, who made headlines after calling his team “soft”, and the Jets desperately need a win.

Pick: Jets

Falcons at Bucs (+1.5)

The Baker Mayfield Show was fun while it lasted but with Chris Godwin donezo for the year and Mike Evans sidelined with a hamstring injury, the Bucs aren’t going to be able to keep up with the Falcons.

Pick: Falcons

Colts at Texans (-5)

I have a hard time trusting this Texans offense until Nico Collins returns and the Colts get DeForest Buckner back to strengthen the middle of their defense. Texans win but this ends up closer than it should be.

Pick: Colts

Packers at Jaguars (+3.5)

Despite missing two games, Jordan Love leads the league with 15 touchdown passes. He also leads the league in interceptions. He shouldn’t have much trouble against a toothless Jaguars defense though.

Pick: Packers

Saints at Chargers (-7)

The Saints’ season is pretty much over as injuries have decimated an already thin roster. Chargers roll here.

Pick: Chargers

Bills at Seahawks (+3)

I’d feel better about the Seahawks’ chances if DK Metcalf was playing. Meanwhile, Amari Cooper is adjusting seamlessly to life in Buffalo. Bills win a potential shootout.

Pick: Bills

Panthers at Broncos (-11)

A stellar Broncos defense at home against Bryce Young missing his top two receivers? Sign me up.

Pick: Broncos

Chiefs at Raiders (+8.5)

             

DeAndre Hopkins makes his debut for the Chiefs, who seemingly lose someone on offense every week. Hopkins’ best days are behind him but there’s enough left in the tank to have a day against the Raiders.

Pick: Chiefs

Cowboys at Niners (-5.5)

I don’t have much faith in the Cowboys, but with the Niners potentially down their top three receivers and CMC still out, this feels like a field goal fest.

Pick: Cowboys

Giants at Steelers (-6)

The Giants continuing to score primetime games despite having one of the worst rosters in football needs to be studied. Russell Wilson completes his dominance of NY by rolling over Big Blue.

Pick: Steelers