NFL Wild Card Round Picks

 Last Week: 8-8

Regular Season: 134-131-6

The regular season is in the books and now it’s time for the games that really matter. 

Welcome to Wild Card weekend, everybody.

Chargers at Texans (+2.5)

If there’s a road team that feels like a mortal lock to advance this week, it’s the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers possess the league’s best scoring defense, a strong running game and a young receiving core starting to come into their own. 

Conversely, the Texans have struggled to find their way all season and benefited greatly from a pisspoor division they were still in danger of losing as recently as a month ago. 

It’s possible that, after taking a giant leap backwards in his second season, CJ shows his old form when it matters most but that’s a tough bet against a well-coached, well-rounded sneaky title contender.

Pick: Chargers

Steelers at Ravens (-9.5)

The Steelers haven’t won in a little over a month, and, when they faced the Ravens in Baltimore a few weeks ago, they lost by 17. If you’re looking for a reason to roll the dice on Pittsburgh, the cold weather might lead to a tighter, lower-scoring game, which would allow the Steelers to cover. 

There have also been instances over the years where Lamar Jackson in the playoffs isn’t quite as refined as he is during the regular season. However, with all eyes on what could Lamar’s third MVP campaign and the Steel Curtain continuing to show signs of wear, this doesn’t seem like the game where the Ravens disappoint.

Pick: Ravens

Broncos at Bills (-9)

Player A: 3,731 yards passing, 28 touchdowns, six INTs, 531 yards rushing and 12 rushing touchdowns. 

Player B: 3,775 yards passing, 29 touchdowns, 12 INTs, 430 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns.

Player A is Josh Allen and Player B is Bo Nix. 

This isn’t to say Nix is the next Allen or to suggest both QBs are in the same tier but look at how comparable their numbers are and then think of the narratives surrounding both heading into the postseason. 

One is an MVP frontrunner and leader of a top-seeded team expected to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The other is a rookie many considered to be a reach on draft who has no shot at winning ROTY honors who, to hear Bengals fans tell it, needed the Chiefs fans to lay down to make the postseason. 

Nix’s Broncos have the league’s best pass rush and one of football’s best corner in Pat Surtain and zero expectations. Isn’t it possible they can slow Allen down long enough for Nix to make a few plays to (at worst) keep it close or (at best) pull off a huge upset?

I say yes.

Pick: Broncos 

Packers at Eagles (-5.5)

The last Packers-Eagles clash was a turnover fest in Brazil in Week 1 that ended with Jordan Love’s knee getting wrecked and Philly escaping with a five-point victory. In between, Saquon Barkley ran for 109 yards and scored three touchdowns, which would be a harbinger for things to come. Since then, Barkley flirted with history, the Eagles went on a tear and the Packers went 11-6 while battling through injuries and only beating one team currently in the playoffs (Week 5 vs the Rams without their top two receivers which they still nearly blew)

On paper, this is a scarier Packers team than the one who upset the Cowboys in the wild card round last year but Green Bay hasn’t lived up to its immense potential all season and its tendency to curl up against elite competition makes it tough for even the most jaded fan to give them the benefit of the doubt. 

Pick: Eagles 

Commanders at Bucs (-3)

This figures to be the highest-scoring games of the week, maybe even the entire postseason, as neither of these teams play a lick of defense. The Bucs and Commanders are 4th and 5th, respectively, in points scored as both average just under 30 a game and both are in the top 10 in total yards. 

We also get the latest installment of the classic Mike Evans vs Marshon Lattimore rivalry. Lattimore has had the upper hand in previous matchups, holding Evans to an average of three catches for 46 yards in 13 head-to-head games. Lattimore keeping that trend going is the closest we’re going to get to defense and the best chance Washington has at pulling off the upset. With Chris Godwin out, the Bucs have leaned on Evans heavily all season and, even with Baker Mayfield having a couple big playoff wins under his belt, it will all be for naught if the Commanders shut down his top target. 

Washington lost to Tampa Bay in their season opener but a lot has changed since then. The Bucs haven’t beaten an elite team since September while Jayden Daniels is rapidly becoming one of the league’s best quarterbacks, especially in the clutch. So, if the one ends up coming down to the final minutes, my money is on the rookie.

Pick: Commanders 

Vikings at Rams (+2.5)

The last month has been suboptimal for the Rams. Despite winning three of their four and having plenty of weapons on offense, LA has scored more than 20 points just once during that span….and that was last week…against the Seahawks….in a game they lost. Making matters worse, the fires in California forced this game to be moved to Arizona and the Rams drew a 14-3 Vikings team still salty from losing the NFC’s top seed (and the NFC North) to the Lions. 

The Rams beat the Vikings earlier in the season when both were relatively healthy and Sam Darnold is coming off his worst performance of the season but I don’t think Sammy Slings drops a dud two weeks in a row with a new contract and a possible Super Bowl run at stake. 

Pick: Vikings 

Week 18 NFL Picks

 Last Week: 10-6

Season: 126-123-6

Apparently, I forgot the Jags-Titans game last week but I’m sure you did, too. On the bright side, we’re finally above .500 and it only took the better part of the regular season. 

On to Week 18…

Browns at Ravens (-19.5)

This is the largest spread of the season and that would normally give me pause except for the fact that the Browns are coming off a 17-point loss to the Dolphins minus Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle. The Ravens still have a AFC North title to play for, which means a Cleveland defense that couldn’t stop Tyler Huntley is about to get dogwalked by Lamar Jackson. 

Pick: Ravens 

Bengals at Steelers (+2.5)

Joe Burrow and the Bengals are one of the hottest teams in football, having won four straight while Burrow’s streak of games with 3+ touchdown passes extended to eight last week. The last team to beat Cincinnati? These Pittsburgh Steelers. 

A lot has changed in the Steel City since that December 1st victory. The Steelers have lost three of their last four and the only thing colder than a January night in the Steel City is this Pittsburgh offense as Russell Wilson and George Pickens are admittedly not on the same page. That doesn’t bode well for their chances of keeping up with Joe Brr, who is trying to will the Bengals into the playoffs.

Pick: Bengals  

Bears at Packers (-9.5)

A Packers win here could mean the difference between a round one rematch in Philly or LA, so there’s incentive for Green Bay to play the starters for at least most of this showdown with the lowly Bears. The last game between these two ended on a tipped field goal that should’ve spelled the end of Matt Eburflus’ tenure but somehow didn’t. Chicago is somehow worse since then with interim coach Thomas Brown at the helm and Green Bay could use one last strong performance to build momentum going into the postseason. 

Pick: Packers

Panthers at Falcons (-7.5)

It’s possible Kirk Cousins was the problem but not the only problem as head coach Raheem Morris’ brainfart down the stretch last week against Washington likely cost Atlanta a playoff spot. I’m also not convinced that, given how both teams have played lately, the Falcons are more-than-a-touchdown better than the Panthers. 

Pick: Panthers 

Commanders at Cowboys (+7)

By God! That’s Trey Lance’s music! 

After 17 weeks of burying him on their depth chart, the Cowboys will finally trot out the former third overall pick in an attempt to prove his worth/boost his trade value. Washington lost the last time out against Dallas, largely due to poor special teams play, and a win here will help the Commanders avoid a round one clash with another division rival, the Philadelphia Eagles. 

Washington gave up 247 yards and two scores to Cooper Rush but Lance will be hard-pressed to come close to those numbers. Unless Lance magically puts it all together, this one should be ugly.

Pick: Commanders 

Texans at Titans (-1.5)

The Titans can lock up the No. 2 overall pick with a loss and I’m not sure that, even if they tried, they could beat the Texans’ B-Team. For Will Levis, this is his last chance to prove he’s starter material before Tennessee decides whether to bring in Shadeur Sanders or Cam Ward this spring. Houston’s been shaky all season and it can’t go above and beyond the fourth seed but they should still have enough to put Brian Callahan out of his misery. 

Pick: Texans 

Jaguars at Colts (-3.5)

It’s one thing to lose to the Giants. It’s another thing to lose and give up 45 points to one of the worst offenses in football in the process. That’s the type of loss that should lead to a team cleaning house but it likely won’t…..unless Indianapolis manages to double down with a bad loss to equally inept Jacksonville. It’s understandable to think Jacksonville can replicate New York’s formula from last week. 

Young journeyman QB with a live arm? Check.

Dynamic rookie receiver? Check. 

Passable run game? Check. 

Jacksonville already beat Indianapolis once this season and that was before the Colts imploded. At the very least, the Jags could cover.

Pick: Jaguars 

Bills at Patriots (+3.5)

There’s plenty of incentive for the Bills to lay down here. Buffalo is locked in to the two seed and a win here cements New England at the top of the draft. Do the Bills really want to give their division rival the opportunity to take the best player in the draft or swing a trade that could set the Patriots up for years to come? So, I fully expect this to be an exhibition of two teams doing their best not to win, and I don’t think there’s a team better at losing this season than the Pats.

Pick: Bills 

Giants at Eagles (-2.5)

I understand the rationale behind Philly benching its starters but would there have been a better storyline going into a mundane Week 18 than Saquon Barkley going for the rushing record against the team that let him walk last spring? The Giants jeopardized the No. 1 pick in the draft by trying too hard against the Colts last week, and while a win here likely saves jobs, I don’t anticipate them making the same mistake twice, even against Kenny “Baby Hands” Pickett.

Pick: Eagles 

Saints at Bucs (-14.5)

Baker Mayfield will likely finish with at least 4500 passing yards and 40 touchdowns while leading the Bucs to a division title and he’ll still be lucky to finish fifth in MVP voting. 

What does that have to do with this week’s game against the pathetic Saints?

Not much except this is an opportunity for Baker to pad his already impressive stats.

Pick: Bucs 

Chiefs at Broncos (-11)

All the Broncos need to make an improbable playoff appearance is a home win over Carson Wentz and the Chiefs backups. If you’re Kansas City, this comes down to would you rather have a third showdown with the Broncos next week or face a white-hot Bengals team that hasn’t lost in over a month? 11 points is steep but I don’t anticipate KC putting up much of a fight against a motivated Broncos defense. 

Pick: Broncos 

Chargers at Raiders (+7)

Four months from now after the Raiders have moved on from Antonio Pierce, we will look back at the decision to win two meaningless games in the final month that likely made the difference between having the number one overall pick and having to sell the farm for it. With the Chargers needing a win to nab the fifth seed and an advantageous meeting with the Texans, this has the makings of a one-sided drubbing that will likely be the final nail in AP’s coffin.

Pick: Chargers 

Seahawks at Rams (+7.5)

The Rams are in the playoffs but the offense is still on a milk carton. Since dropping 44 points on Buffalo in Week 14, Los Angeles has matched that total in their past three games COMBINED. Seattle offers a chance to get back on track but so did Arizona last week and the Jets the week before that. Until the Rams live up to their potential, they’re more like lambs to the slaughter. 

Pick: Seahawks 

Dolphins at Jets (-1)

In his latest attempt to draw attention to himself, Aaron Rodgers is hinting at retiring after the season and it honestly can’t happen soon enough. Rodgers’ two-year tenure in the Meadowlands has been nothing short of an overdramatic unmitigated disaster that somehow set the Jets back instead of progressed them forward. Whether he hangs it up or not, Rodgers should never play another snap for the Jets and the team should let Tyrod Taylor finish it out in attempt to end the season on a good note. 

Since they won’t, it’s only fitting Gang Green goes out sad against Tyler Huntley and the not-quite-dead-yet Dolphins.

Pick: Dolphins 

Niners at Cardinals (-4.5)

Both of these teams are awful but I actually feel better about Josh Dobbs and what’s left of the Niners than a Cardinals team that crashed out weeks ago. 

Pick: Niners

Vikings at Lions (-3)

I don’t know what the Vikings can get for JJ McCarthy and it has to be disappointing to take 30 cents on the dollar for a guy you drafted as your QB of future before he’s ever taken an NFL snap, but this is Sam Darnold’s team now. Darnold’s rise from punchline to Pro Bowler has to be almost as unlikely as the Vikings and Lions playing for the top seed in the NFC in the final week of the season. 

Neither team has any glaring weaknesses and the last one came down to a Jake Bates field goal in the closing seconds. This feels like more of the same, so I’ll take the points. 

Pick: Vikings