Week 9 NFL Picks

Three straight weeks above .500 for your boy but, unlike Tyrique Stevenson, I’m not going to celebrate before it’s all over.

On to Week 9…

Last Week: 9-6

Season: 59-60-3

Texans at Jets (-2)

I’m confused how the Jets, losers of five straight including last week to one of the worst teams in football, is favored over anyone, even at home against a 6-2 Texans team missing its top two receivers. I have little faith Aaron Rodgers and company can turn this thing around, and while Houston doesn’t have the firepower to blow Gang Green out, there’s enough talent on both sides of the ball to give New York its sixth straight L.

Pick: Texans

Commanders at Giants (+4)

Jayden Daniels is making his case to win Offensive Rookie of the Year while Daniel Jones is a making a case for losing his starting job. The Giants nearly upset the Commanders a couple months ago but the days of Big Blue being a frisky underdog appear to be over.

Pick: Commanders

Broncos at Ravens (-8.5)

Despite last week’s loss to Cleveland, Baltimore has established itself as one of the best teams in football. Derrick Henry is a dark horse MVP contender, Mark Andrews is back from the dead and Diontae Johnson joins a sneaky good receiver room. Meanwhile, Denver has won five of their last six but hasn’t beat anyone worth talking about since their upset of Tampa Bay in late September. The Ravens aren’t going to have the rug pulled out from under them two weeks in a row but the Broncos’ defense is good enough to keep them from getting blown out.

Pick: Broncos

Dolphins at Bills (-6.5)

It’s possible Miami’s surprising loss to Arizona last week can be attributed to Tua shaking the rust off but going on the road to face a Buffalo team that originally put the Dolphins QB on the shelf isn’t an ideal matchup for a “get right” game. The revenge factor is in play but the Bills are even better than when these two faced off in Week 2.

Pick: Bills

Raiders at Bengals (-7.5)

Upset special! In three games without Tee Higgins this season, the Bengals are 0-3 and the offense averages just over 17 points. Higgins won’t suit up for this one and neither will RB Zack Moss. The Raiders are down bad but Cincy’s limitations on offense will make it hard for them to pull away.

Pick: Raiders

Cowboys at Falcons (-3)

Reasonable football fans didn’t have high expectations for the Cowboys but this season has somehow been worse than even we expected. Dak Prescott, the league’s highest paid player, is sporting a 10:8 TD-to-INT ratio. Ezekiel Elliott has been so awful that Dallas had to turn to the equally washed up Dalvin Cook to get the run game going. The vaunted Cowboys defense seems to put up more of a fight against reporters than opposing offenses. Head coach Mike McCarthy, already a lame duck coming into the season, is a mortal lock to not be back next year.

When you put all those factors together and put them on the road against the NFC South-leading Falcons, it’s a recipe for disaster.

Pick: Falcons

Saints at Panthers (+7)

This is a golden opportunity for Panthers QB Bryce Young to finally get out of Carolina. With the former number one overall pick on the block, what better way to build up your trade value than at home against a Saints defense giving up nearly 26 points per game? Young doesn’t have the weapons to have himself a career day (though the bar, much like him, isn’t set very high) but there’s enough there to stay within a touchdown in this mid-off with a New Orleans squad that seemingly loses a receiver every couple of weeks.

Pick: Panthers

Chargers at Browns (+1)

For the millions of people who screamed every week for the Browns to start Jameis Winston behind center, the “Famous” one’s 334-yard, three touchdown performance in an upset win over Baltimore last week was vindication. Much like Joe Flacco last year, Winston gives the Browns’ offense a spark that was never there under Deshaun Watson. He’s a cagey veteran who isn’t scared to take chances downfield. He can’t save Cleveland’s season but he can make them competitive and that should be enough against a Chargers’ offense that doesn’t score a lot.

Pick: Browns

Patriots at Titans (-3)

The Titans’ lone win this season a 31-12 beat down of the Tua-less Dolphins on Monday Night Football back in Week 4. Their leading passer was Mason Rudolph, who had 85 yards through the air. Their leading receiver was DeAndre Hopkins, who is now in Kansas City. Their two touchdown scorers that night, RBs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, both might not play this week. 

The Patriots aren’t much to get excited about either but rookie QB Drake Maye can at least move the chains a bit.

Pick: Patriots

Jaguars at Eagles (-7.5)

The Eagles are once again in a position to get Doug Pederson fired. Four years after Philly sent him packing, Dougie P is back in the house that Nick Foles built for what has to be his last game as a Jaguars coach. As if facing a tough Eagles team wasn’t hard enough, Jacksonville will be without Christian Kirk and possibly rookie Brian Thomas Jr while both of their running backs are nursing injuries. This could get ugly early.

Pick: Eagles

Bears at Cardinals (-1.5)

Chicago’s brain fart loss to Washington last week was one for the ages and it was a showcase of everything that’s wrong with the Bears: poor offensive line play, overrated QB, terrible playcalling and a lack of common sense on both sides of the ball.

This week may feel like Deja vu: on the road against a mobile, strong-armed QB and facing a toothless defense that lacks a pass rush. Assuming they’re a bit wiser here, the Bears should be able to pull this one off.

Pick: Bears

Lions at Packers (+2.5)

This is the Packers’ biggest game of the season thus far. A win here gives Green Bay control of the NFC North and a shot at top seed in the conference. The last time the Packers played the Lions with a lot at stake, they turned around their season with a win last Thanksgiving. After leaving last week with a groin injury, Jordan Love will tough it out this week. If he can manage to stay healthy and avoid the backbreaking turnovers that have been as notable as his 15 touchdown passes this season, the Pack can pull off the upset.

Pick: Packers

Rams at Seahawks (+1)

The Rams have went from a team destined to be sellers at the deadline to one with postseason aspirations now that the offense is back at full strength. The same can’t be said for the Seahawks, who will be without DK Metcalf once again and tight end Noah Fant. Seattle’s lost four of the last five and they’ll be hard-pressed to win a shootout with their offense so banged up.

Pick: Rams

Colts at Vikings (-5)

I was going to write a rant about Anthony Richardson but I got tired and couldn’t finish. Jokes aside, A-Rich is probably never regaining his starting job this season and it’ll likely be awhile before he regains the trust of the Colts or their fans.

Meanwhile, it’s hard to imagine the once-undefeated Vikings dropping three straight but the Colts are a different (better?) team with Joe Flacco under center.

Pick: Colts

Bucs at Chiefs (-9)

It doesn’t seem to matter who is at wideout for the Chiefs as Patrick Mahomes seems to get by every week. The same can be said for Baker Mayfield, who put up 334 yards and three touchdowns despite being without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

The difference is Mahomes still manages to win but Mayfield still being able to put up numbers bodes well for the Bucs’ chances of at least covering here.

Pick: Bucs

Week 8 NFL Picks

 A couple bad beats thwarted what could’ve been the second consecutive double-digit win week.

Last Week: 8-7
Season: 50-54-3

On to Week 8…

Vikings at Rams (+2.5)

After being out since Week 2, Cooper Kupp is finally back from a sprained ankle and will suit up for what will likely be his last game in a Rams uniform before the team trades him. Cold game. Los Angeles already shipped off LB Ernest Jones and QB Matthew Stafford was briefly the subject of trade rumors, which suggests the Rams are already throwing in the towel on this season.

Even if the Rams weren’t waving the white flag, they would be hard-pressed to upset a Vikings team that’s a late-game field goal away from still being undefeated.

Pick: Vikings

Titans at Lions (-12.5)

The Lions are playing for the top seed in the NFC. The Titans are playing for the first pick in the draft. It’s a big spread but this Tennessee team is somehow even worse without Will Levis.

Pick: Lions

Cardinals at Dolphins (-4.5)

Tua’s back and, if Miami can keep him conscious, the Dolphins’ dynamic offense will run wild on a bad Cardinals defense.

Pick: Dolphins

Eagles at Bengals (-2.5)

The Bengals are better than their 3-4 record but a run defense that’s been getting gashed all season isn’t going to be able to slow down a hot Saquon Barkley.

Pick: Eagles

Ravens at Browns (+7.5)

Baltimore shouldn’t have much trouble with Cleveland but the Ravens’ secondary is beat up and it wouldn’t surprise me if Jameis Winston puts up enough garbage time numbers to keep it within a touchdown.

Pick: Browns

Jets at Patriots (+7)

The Patriots are ready to turn on head coach Jerod Mayo, who made headlines after calling his team “soft”, and the Jets desperately need a win.

Pick: Jets

Falcons at Bucs (+1.5)

The Baker Mayfield Show was fun while it lasted but with Chris Godwin donezo for the year and Mike Evans sidelined with a hamstring injury, the Bucs aren’t going to be able to keep up with the Falcons.

Pick: Falcons

Colts at Texans (-5)

I have a hard time trusting this Texans offense until Nico Collins returns and the Colts get DeForest Buckner back to strengthen the middle of their defense. Texans win but this ends up closer than it should be.

Pick: Colts

Packers at Jaguars (+3.5)

Despite missing two games, Jordan Love leads the league with 15 touchdown passes. He also leads the league in interceptions. He shouldn’t have much trouble against a toothless Jaguars defense though.

Pick: Packers

Saints at Chargers (-7)

The Saints’ season is pretty much over as injuries have decimated an already thin roster. Chargers roll here.

Pick: Chargers

Bills at Seahawks (+3)

I’d feel better about the Seahawks’ chances if DK Metcalf was playing. Meanwhile, Amari Cooper is adjusting seamlessly to life in Buffalo. Bills win a potential shootout.

Pick: Bills

Panthers at Broncos (-11)

A stellar Broncos defense at home against Bryce Young missing his top two receivers? Sign me up.

Pick: Broncos

Chiefs at Raiders (+8.5)

             

DeAndre Hopkins makes his debut for the Chiefs, who seemingly lose someone on offense every week. Hopkins’ best days are behind him but there’s enough left in the tank to have a day against the Raiders.

Pick: Chiefs

Cowboys at Niners (-5.5)

I don’t have much faith in the Cowboys, but with the Niners potentially down their top three receivers and CMC still out, this feels like a field goal fest.

Pick: Cowboys

Giants at Steelers (-6)

The Giants continuing to score primetime games despite having one of the worst rosters in football needs to be studied. Russell Wilson completes his dominance of NY by rolling over Big Blue.

Pick: Steelers

Week 7 Picks

Six weeks in, teams are starting to find their comfort zone and so are we after the best week in recent memory.

On to Week 7…

Last Week: 10-3-1

Season: 42-47-3

Broncos at Saints (+3)

Sean Payton returns to New Orleans to face a Saints team missing its top two receivers, its starting tight end and its starting quarterback. Saints rookie Spencer Rattler had an impressive debut (270 total yards and a score) but will find it a lot harder to move the ball against a stout Broncos defense, even without top corner Patrick Surtain. Conversely, Bo Nix should have little trouble against a Saints D that’s given up 103 points in its last three games. A three-point spread was generous here. Broncos roll. 

Pick: Broncos

Patriots at Jaguars (London) (-6.5) 

A showdown between two of the worst teams in football feels more like a punishment than a reward for the people of London. The Jaguars shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown against anyone, not even a bad Patriots team. Drake Maye’s first career start had its shaky moments but there’s enough promise there for the rookie to put the final nail in Doug Pederson’s coffin with an upset across the pond.

Pick: Patriots

Bengals at Browns (+5.5) 

It’s hard to imagine the Browns winning another game with Deshaun Watson behind center and, with the trade of Amari Cooper, one has to wonder if Cleveland has already given up on the season. The Bengals are two games behind Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the North, so they could use an easy win.

Pick: Bengals

Lions at Vikings (-1)

The Aiden Hutchinson injury is tough blow for the Lions and it remains to be seen whether Detroit can muster a pass rush without him. If they can’t, they’ll have a tough time on the road against a rested Sammy Slings and the Vikings.

Pick: Vikings 

Texans at Packers (-3) 

Despite missing two games, Jordan Love is tied for second in the NFL with 12 touchdown passes. He’ll have his full complement of weapons against an injury-plagued Texans defense. The Packers also get top corner Jaire Alexander back just in time for a showdown with former division rival Stefon Diggs. If Love can avoid costly turnovers, a strong performance can put him in the MVP conversation.

Pick: Packers

Dolphins at Colts (-3) 

The Dolphins have put up a combined 30 points in their last three games since losing QB Tua Tagovailoa in Week 2 and have the league’s worst scoring offense. It’s hard to imagine them being able to keep up with the Colts, even with Anthony Richardson behind center and Jonathan Taylor out.

Pick: Colts

Eagles at Giants (+3)

Saquon Barkley has had this game circled since the Giants let him walk in the offseason and not even Nick Sirianni’s determination to get all of Philly to hate him will ruin it.

Pick: Eagles

Seahawks at Falcons (-3)

The Falcons are coming off a bye on a three-game win streak and are at home against a Seahawks team that’s dropped its last three. Gimme Atlanta.

Pick: Falcons

Titans at Bills (-9)

Mason Rudolph might give the Titans more of a chance than Will Levis but he won’t sustain enough long drives to keep Tennessee’s defense from getting worn out by a new-look Bills offense.

Pick: Bills

Panthers at Commanders (-9.5)

The Panthers are terrible, but so is the Commanders’ defense. Washington wins but doesn’t cover.

Pick: Panthers 

Raiders at Rams (-7)

With the Davante Adams saga now over, it wouldn’t surprise me if Antonio Pierce tries to prove a point by showing how the team doesn’t miss its former star receiver. Raiders with the “upset”.

Pick: Raiders

Chiefs at Niners (-2)

Injuries ruined this Super Bowl rematch and neither team has looked as dominant as a year ago, but if the Chiefs are getting points, I’ll take them.

Pick: Chiefs 

Jets at Steelers (+2)

There’s no more excuses for the Jets. Robert Salah is gone. Nate Hackett isn’t calling the plays anymore. Aaron Rodgers got his buddy Davante Adams back. Hassan Redick’s holdout is over. It’s now or never, starting with a rusty Russell Wilson and the Steelers.

Pick: Jets

Ravens at Bucs (+3.5)

This looks like the Game of the Week but Tampa Bay’s defense can’t stop anyone and that’s a problem against the reigning MVP Lamar Jackson.

Pick: Ravens 

Chargers at Cardinals (+1.5)

The schedule makers must’ve had high hopes for both of these teams when they decided to put them on Monday night. The Cardinals have been awful and Marvin Harrison Jr is trying to shake off a concussion against a very good Chargers defense.

Pick: Chargers

Week 6 NFL Picks

 Week 5 ended in a draw but it was still a better week than the one Robert Salah had.

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 32-44-2

Niners at Seahawks (+3.5)

Two of Week 5’s biggest letdowns square off in a Thursday mid-off. This is going to seem like an overreaction to last week’s walk-off loss to Arizona, but I don’t think San Francisco is good and on the road on four days rest without their best corner against Seattle’s three-headed monster at wideout sounds like a recipe for another L. The jury is still out on the Seahawks, but there’s enough talent there to at least cover.

Pick: Seahawks

Jaguars at Bears (+1)

Jacksonville being favored (even if it’s by one) is hilarious considering they’re a bottom-five NFL team and this is technically an “away” game for them. Maybe oddsmakers believe the Jags’ familiarity playing in London gives them an edge but Caleb Williams and the Bears are cooking lately. I wouldn’t be surprised if England gets another coach fired after this.

Pick: Bears

Cardinals at Packers (-5.5)

His tendency to throw mind-boggling picks aside, Jordan Love hasn’t missed a step since returning from an MCL injury. The Cardinals don’t have the defense to slow down this Packers offense and Jaire Alexander’s return might keep Green Bay from allowing Arizona get the back-door cover.

Pick: Packers

Browns at Eagles (-8.5)

Kevin Stefanski is either a glutton for punishment or is desperately trying to get the Browns to fire him. That’s the only explanation I can think of for why he’s sticking with what’s left of Deshaun Watson at this point. Cleveland’s battered offensive line can’t protect Watson, which works out for an Eagles pass rush that’s second to last in sacks. 8.5 points is a lot but the Browns might be the worst team in football.

Pick: Eagles 

Texans at Patriots (+6.5)

Drake Maye will make his first NFL start, and he should be able to move the ball better than Jacoby Brissett did, but even a Nico Collins-less Texans team should have little trouble with the worst teams in football.

Pick: Texans

Colts at Titans (-3)

Both Anthony Richardson and Will Levis have been ridiculously mid this season but duty requires me to pick a winner. Tennessee has the better defense and they’re at home. So, they get my vote to suck a little less.

Pick: Titans

Bucs at Saints (+3.5)

With Derek Carr out and the Saints slowly working themselves into position to get a top QB in next year’s draft, Spencer Rattler has an opportunity to prove he’s New Orleans’ guy. Even if Rattler performs better than his predecessor, it’s hard to imagine him winning a shootout with Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.

Pick: Bucs

Commanders at Ravens (-7)

The Commanders are the NFL’s flavor of the week, led by exciting rookie Jayden Daniels. Daniels vs Lamar Jackson should lead to plenty of highlights and, while Baltimore is a significantly better team, I think there’s enough JD magic to keep it close.

Pick: Commanders

Chargers at Broncos (+3)

The Broncos have quietly won three straight thanks to a stout defense and a continually improving Bo Nix. Nix hasn’t faced a defense quite like the Chargers’ and that step up in difficulty should bring this Denver streak to a halt.

Pick: Chargers 

Steelers at Raiders (+3)

Unless Tom Brady trades in his minority stake in the Raiders for a helmet and shoulder pads, the season is pretty much over for Las Vegas. The Steelers may be frauds but there’s enough there to beat a Raiders’ team ready to raise the white flag.

Pick: Steelers

Falcons at Panthers (+6)

That one week where it looked like the Panthers might turn things around with Andy Dalton sure was fun, right? Conversely, Kirk Cousins continues to earn his money for the Falcons and there’s no reason to think that’ll change this week.

Pick: Falcons 

Lions at Cowboys (+3.5)

Don’t let last week’s upset over the Steelers distract you from the fact Dallas has no pass rush, no running game and a bad offensive line. All of those factors pretty much nuke their chances of beating Detroit.

Pick: Lions 

Bengals at Giants (+3.5)

At some point, we’re going to have to take the Giants seriously.

That won’t be this week though. The Bengals desperately need a win, especially after squandering Joe Burrow’s 392-yard, five-touchdown performed against the Ravens last week.

Pick: Bengals

Bills at Jets (+2)

We can debate whether Robert Salah deserved to be fired this early into the season (if at all) and how much Aaron Rodgers had to do with it, but there’s no questioning the Jets’ Super Bowl chances takes a huge hit with inexperienced Jeff Ulbrich running the show.  Unless the changes on the sideline unlock New York’s immense potential, a showdown with the Bills will only add to their problems.

Pick: Bills