NFL Divisional Round Picks

 Last Week: 3-3

Playoffs: 3-3

Season: 137-134-6

A couple big upsets submarined what could’ve been a great first week of the ‘yoffs. This week doesn’t look to be any easier. 

On to the divisional round….

Texans at Chiefs (-8.5)

Despite being road underdogs, the Texans might see a lot of betting action this week for a number of reasons: 

1. A lot of people hate the Chiefs and want to see them lose.
2. Like this very website, you thought the Texans were going to get cooked by the Chargers and now you’re chasing that money back. 
3. Despite being 15-1, Kansas City hasn’t blown out a lot of teams and 8.5 points is a big undertaking against a capable team that just dropped 32 points on one of the best defenses in football.
4. The Chiefs’ starters haven’t played in two weeks, so there’s the possibility that an offense that’s sputtered all season is rusty out of the gate.

On the flip side, Mahomes is undefeated in the divisional round and, if you’re part of the tin foil minority that believes the NFL greases the skids for the Chiefs, you probably believe there’s no way the league deprives us of either Lamar vs Mahomes or Mahomes vs Josh Allen in the championship game.

Emotional allegiances aside, Texans put up enough of a fight to cover but the ride ends here. 

Pick: Texans 

Commanders at Lions (-9.5)

The Lions feel like a team of destiny and this is the closest they’ve come to being NFC favorites in franchise history. 

Like Kansas City, there’s the possibility of Detroit having some rust to shake off and the Lions’ defense has been prone to big plays this season. Washington also proved that, if things get close down the stretch, Jayden Daniels has the moxie to come out on top. 

Does that mean Washington will pull off another upset? No. Do I think this will be closer than the spread indicates? Definitely.

Pick: Commanders 

Rams at Eagles (-6)

Given everything going on in California, it’s possible the Rams have leapfrogged Detroit and Buffalo as the sentimental favorites among casuals and fans without a dog still in the fight. Los Angeles’ once non-existent defense made a surprise cameo last week, sacking Sam Darnold nine times, forcing two turnovers (one of which being returned for a score) and severely impacting Darnold’s chances of a big payday this offseason. 

However, they’ll be hard-pressed to have a repeat performance against the Eagles. Philadelphia’s offensive line allowed just 45 sacks all season and Jalen Hurts is significantly more mobile than Sam Darnold. Philadelphia also has a human wrecking ball in NFL rushing leader Saquon Barkley and the Rams have one of the worst run defenses in football. 

Much like last week against Green Bay, this feels like a game where Philly uses Saquon to control the clock and baits Matt Stafford into a couple picks. 

Give me Philly and the under.

Pick: Eagles 

Ravens at Bills (+1)

What better way to close out the second round of the playoffs than with a matchup between the two MVP frontrunners with a potential showdown with the league’s final boss, Patrick Mahomes, waiting in the wings? 

Much like they did during the regular season, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen put their respective teams on their back in the opening round. Jackson threw for 175 yards and two scores while adding 81 on the ground in yet another beat down of the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers while Allen put up 316 combined yards and a pair of scores on Denver’s stout defense. 

As evidenced by the spread, these two teams are evenly match. Both teams are top 3 in points per game, top 11 in scoring defense and top 10 in total yards. Allen will have Bills Mafia behind them while Jackson has human Minotaur Derrick Henry sharing the backfield with him. 

With bitter cold and the possibility of snow forecasted for Buffalo Sunday night, this will come down to which team runs the balls better and right now that’s Baltimore.

Pick: Ravens