Yesterday, we broke down Denver's signing of Peyton Manning from Tim Tebow's perspective(extremely disrespectful) and the Broncos' perspective(extremely risky), but we never stopped to talk about whether Denver was the right move for Manning himself.
Was it?
To get right to the point: No.
A couple weeks ago, I ranked the eight best contenders who had shown interest in Peyton but left off Denver(whom he ended up signing with) because I didn't think Peyton's agents would risk irritating a client within the agency(Tebow) by angling Manning to take his spot. I used the same theory to cross out San Francisco(who was in the final three) because I couldn't see Manning intentionally making life difficult for Alex Smith, another CAA client. Tennessee ended up being the other team in the final three, and I ranked them fourth. However, had I known that Manning would show little concern for his representatives' fellow cash cows, I would have expanded the list to 10 and Denver would have been slightly ahead of the Seahawks in the bottom quarter of the list and San Francisco would have been the unquestioned best spot for Manning.
Before we get into "Why San Francisco?", let me answer "Why not Denver?". Even though it's a division filled with middle-of-the-pack teams, the AFC West is filled with young, hungry middle-of-the-pack teams that are really only a player or two away from making some noise in the postseason. That's why the division race always comes down to the final games of the season. All four teams aren't separated by much. San Diego was a perennial Super Bowl contender for much of this decade before falling off a bit the last couple of years, but they are still a force so long as Philip Rivers is behind center. Oakland was a fun story for much of the year last year after owner Al David died and the team rallied behind his passing and, they too, have a decent QB in Carson Palmer. Kansas City was one of only two teams last year to stop the Green Bay offensive juggernaut and they nearly won the division for the second time in a row despite having nearly every notable player on the IR. Now, they are back and healthy and, even with Manning in the division, I still like the Chiefs as the early favorite in the West. The AFC West may not be top-heavy like the AFC North or the AFC East or even the NFC South, but it's competitive. If the ultimate goal when picking a new team was "What team gives me the best chance at a ring?", how can you pass on a Niners team playing in the worst division in football that was a botched punt return away from the Super Bowl?
Then, there's the issue with the city of Denver itself, namely the weather. For 14 years, Manning played his home games in the friendly confines of a dome. All of those Colts teams had a reputation for being soft, finesse teams. Now, Manning, on the last legs of his career, is going to make another run at a title in one of the coldest cities in America. Let's say Manning delivers in the regular season and Denver notches the top seed and homefield advantage, who do you like in a snowy, smashmouth clash: Denver or Baltimore? Denver or Pittsburgh? Denver or the Jets? Hell, Denver or New England? Manning doesn't have a history of dominating in the cold and it's going to be hard for a 36-year old man to break out the laser rocket arm in 10 below weather with half a foot of fresh powder coming down on him. You know how much it snows in San Francisco or Tennessee? Here's a hint: not much.
From a talent standpoint, Denver was the worst of the final three as well. Even if Manning talks Elway into bringing in his old mates like Dallas Clark and Jeff Saturday, no former Colt can improve that terrible Bronco defense. While Manning has turned tuna into swordfish before in Indy, the days of him putting a team on his back and being a one-man show are nearing the end. The receivers are young and talented but unproven. Demaryius Thomas is the best of a lot that isn't very deep. The running game is in the hands of a washed up Willis McGahee and, as mentioned before, the defense doesn't have much talent beyond a couple aging vets in the secondary and some young pass rushers at defensive end(something Peyton has probably become accustomed to, anyway). This wasn't a team that was a quarterback away from a Super Bowl. No matter how much Elway and John Fox want to blame Tim Tebow for everything in Colorado short of the Columbine shootings, he wasn't the reason this team couldn't get by New England in the divisionals(Ok, he wasn't the MAIN reason).
You know who WAS a quarterback away from being a Super Bowl team? San Francisco, which brings me to why the Niners were a perfect fit. For starters, that division is horrid. Three of the four teams in the NFC West are picking in the top 12 in April's Draft. If the Niners can go 13-3 with Alex Smith at the helm, how good could they be if Manning is healthy and returns to form(albeit a big if)? Second, the Niners spent the offseason revamping an offense that was rather mundane last year. As much of a knucklehead as Randy Moss has been throughout his career, there's no denying he's the best deep threat of our generation and his teams have come within a whisker of hoisting the Lombardi twice('00 with Minnesota, '07 with New England). The team also added Mario Manningham, who was huge on the Giants' game-winning drive in this past Super Bowl. Moss, Manningham, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Frank Gore.....how is that not among the best supporting casts Manning has ever had? Oh, and by the way, the Niners have the league's best defense(statistically, maybe even literally). Tell me again, Peyton, how Denver was the better play. Oh, right, you didn't want to stand in the way of little brother Eli's path to the Super Bowl by joining the NFC, too. I know the Manning brothers have some kind of weird, Brady Bunch/Partridge Family-type kinship, but the fact of the matter is, their paths are going to cross one way or the other in their quest for the Super Bowl. Peyton is 36 and is now having to play catch-up with his little brother. At some point, you have to do what's best for you. By stiff-arming the entire NFC and picking a fledgling candidate like Denver, you wonder if Peyton's ultimate goal was to win a ring for himself.....or his little brother.
Look, time will tell whether the move to Denver will work out. As someone who has spent time in Colorado and also knows the effects of the blistering cold on aching bones, I wonder if going to a cold weather city makes sense for a man with a busted neck. Of course, we're speaking of this entire Broncos-Manning marriage under the best case scenario that Manning can still play. As much as the media wants to take Peyton's return and run with it, let's see how the man responds to taking a hit first. Let's see how much he loves Denver when there's a foot and a half of snow on the ground before he's even able to take his kids trick-or-treating. From a talent standpoint, a healthy Peyton Manning could have ruled the world in San Francisco. In Denver, he'll be lucky to own the West. Peyton Manning said that his new domain would be less about the money and more about winning a Super Bowl, but that seems a bit far-fetched after he turned down a team that was thisclose in the NFC Championship to take a five-year, $96 million deal with a team that struggled to win its own division last year.
Peyton Manning didn't want to stand in the way of his little brother. With this latest mistake, he'll never have to worry about that.
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