1. Cleveland Browns: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
The latest out of Cleveland is this pick is down to Allen and Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, which means the Browns are probably taking USC’s Sam Darnold. GM John Dorsey has done a superb job of keeping where he’s leaning under wraps and we might not even know who he’s taking under Roger Goodell takes the stand.
As of this writing, I’m rolling with Allen, even though the smart money is on Darnold. He’s big (6’5, 237lbs), athletic and has the strongest arm in the draft, which is typically what Dorsey and OC Todd Haley prefers. I’m also not ready to completely rule out Mayfield, who gained momentum in recent weeks.
2. New York Giants: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
This is a no-brainer to me. The Giants haven’t had a franchise running back since Tiki Barber retired 12 years ago and Barkley is being described as the best rushing prospect of the last 25 years. Yes, a QB to groom behind 37-year-old Eli Manning would be nice. Yes, Big Blue has a hole at defensive end that could be filled by North Carolina State’s Bradley Chubb.
However, the possibility of an offensive nucleus of Barkley, Odell Beckham Jr, Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard (all 25 or younger) is too good to pass up.
3. New York Jets (via IND) : Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
Mayfield over Donald? Seems crazy, right? Maybe not. Mayfield is the most accurate QB in this draft, and despite his lack of ideal height (just a shade over six feet tall) and personality issues (he’s one cocky MFer), he doesn’t come with as many warts as Darnold, who was turnover-prone at SC and needs to work on mechanics/footwork.
“Broadway Baker” is a great fit for new OC Jeremy Bates’ scheme and his brash attitude will go over well in the surly tri-state area.
4. Cleveland Browns (via HOU): Bradley Chubb, DE, North Carolina State
The Browns will likely field calls from QB-needy teams regardless of which prospects are on the board. If they stay put, Chubb makes the most sense as a bookend pass-rusher to pair with last year’s No. 1 pick Myles Garrett. Chubb’s pass-rushing ability is what will draw the most attention but he’s stout against the run as well.
TRADE!
The Buffalo Bills send the No. 12 pick, a second-round pick (No. 53 overall) and a 2019 first-rounder to the Denver Broncos for the No. 5 overall pick
We have our first of many trades in this mock. The Bills desperately need a QB, and armed with five picks in the first three rounds, they have the ammo to move up. Broncos GM John Elway expresses interest in moving down, and being able to secure a potential top-5 pick next year to drop seven spots is a nice haul.
5. Buffalo Bills (via DEN): Sam Darnold, QB, USC
With A.J. McCarron and Nathan Peterman leading the depth chart, the Bills can’t afford to sit back and wait for a QB to come to them. Regardless of who is still on the board, I fully expect Buffalo to get aggressive in their pursuit of the next Jim Kelly.
At just 20 years old, Darnold is the youngest QB to go in the first round since Alex Smith in 2005. There are some technical kinks that need to be worked out before he’s pro-ready but Buffalo has enough safeguards in place to bring him along slowly.
6. Indianapolis Colts (via NYJ): Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
The Colts took advantage of the Jets’ desperation for a new QB months ago by striking a deal to move down three spots in exchange for three second-round picks. Now, they’ll benefit even further from the signal caller frenzy by grabbing whatever top-tier defensive talent falls to them.
Smith is a classic sideline-to-sideline inside linebacker who has drawn comparisons to guys like Ray Lewis, Jon Vilma and Luke Kuechly. Whether he’s on par with those greats remains to be seen, but the Colts, who finished near the bottom in almost every defensive catagory, could certainly use his help up the middle.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Derwin James, S, Florida State
In a perfect world, Saquon Barkley falls to Tampa and fixes their long-standing need for a running game. In reality, the Bucs will choose between addressing their secondary with either James, Denzel Ward or Minkah Fitzpatrick or solidify a weak offensive line with stellar guard Quentin Nelson.
James gets the call here because he doesn’t have Ward’s size concerns and, while he can play all over the defensive backfield, he has a more defined position than the versatile Fitzpatrick. James had some injuries at Florida State but teams are starting to come around on any durability concerns.
8. Chicago Bears: Quentin Nelson, G, Notre Dame
The Bears let Josh Sitton walk while their other starter, Kyle Long, is on the mend from offseason neck surgery. With young QB Mitch Trubisky still developing and the running game looking to bounce back after a down year, landing a road grader like Nelson to stabalize the offensive line is paramount.
Nelson is considered one of the safest and cleanest prospects in the draft. He’s been compared to Hall of Famer Larry Allen, arguably the greatest guard to ever take the field. That’s pretty heavy praise, but if Nelson can live up to the hype, he can be the kind of building block that helps the Bears turn things around.
9. San Francisco 49ers: Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama
With Reuben Foster dodging a bullet by having offseason domestic abuse charges dropped, linebacker isn’t as big of a need as it once was. The Niners could still look at Virginia Tech’s Tremaine Edwards as both a safety net if Foster steps out of line and as a potential partner inside.
For now, Fitzpatrick gets the call. Safety Eric Reid doesn’t appear likely to return and the secondary doesn’t have much beyond free-agent acquisition Richard Sherman, who is 30 years old and coming off an Achilles injury. Fitzpatrick is like a bigger Tyron Mathieu, a defensive Swiss Army knife who just knows how to make plays. Whether he lines up in the slot, in the box or out deep, he’s sure to find a home in the Bay Area.
TRADE!
The Arizona Cardinals send No. 15 overall, a third-round pick (No.79) and a 2019 third-round pick to the Oakland Raiders for No. 10 overall pick
Upon first glance, this seems like a steep price to move up five spots but top-10 slots that lead to franchise QBs have a hefty cost. With Miami looming at No.11, the Cardinals strike now to get their guy. The Raiders, filled with holes that one player can’t fill by his lonesome, gladly oblige.
10. Arizona Cardinals (from OAK): Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
Despite being heralded as the most technically sound QB in this draft, Josh Rosen seems the most likely of the Big Four QBs to fall. Questions about his durability (concussions/shoulder issues in college), attitude (known to be outspoken) and commitment to football (he’s not hurting for money) have all been listed as red flags.
The Cardinals can’t afford to be picky. Injury-prone Sam Bradford and mediocrity-prone Mike Glennon are the team’s top two QBs and neither can be considered long-term answers. If Rosen (or any of the big four) slide to the bottom of the top 10, Arizona needs to move fast to catch him.
11. Miami Dolphins: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
The Dolphins could use a quarterback but I don’t think they’ll move up for one. Yes, Ryan Tannehill will be 30 in July and is coming off his second ACL tear since December 2016, but I think he gets another chance to resuscitate his career.
The defense, however, doesn’t have the same luxury. A 6’5”, 250-pound athletic freak, Edmunds was a finalist for the Butkus award as a 19-year-old junior. With last year’s second-round pick Raekwon McMillan returning from a torn ACL, the Dolphins would have two young LBs to go along with offseason acquisition Robert Quinn. Ohio State corner Denzel Wars is another option.
12. Denver Broncos (via BUF): Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
This would be a dream scenario for the Broncos. After trading Aqib Talib to the Rams, Denver needs another corner to fill his spot and Ward is considered the best of a deep rookie crop.
At 5’11” and 190 pounds, Ward lacks ideal height but he makes up for it with elite speed and agility. He also comes from a pro factory at Ohio State which produced quality corners such as reigning DROY Marshon Lattimore. If Ward doesn’t fall in Denver’s lap, a pass-rusher or another body for the offensive line would be the next best thing.
13. Washington Redskins: Vita Vea, DT, Washington
DraftAnalyst.com’s Tony Pauline calls Vita Vea-to-Washington “the NFL’s worst-kept secret”. Why would it be? The Skins haven’t had an interior presence on the defensive line in years and Vea is a monster of a man inside.
Standing 6’4”, 350 pounds with uncanny quickness and insane strength, Vea draws comparisons to Pro Bowl DT Haloti Ngata. Worst-case scenario, he clogs the middle and helps an ailing run defense. Best-case scenario, he shows some pass-rushing chops while teaming with Jonathan Allen to wreak havoc on opposing QBs.
14. Green Bay Packers: Harold Landry, DE/LB, Boston College
The Packers haven’t picked this high since 2009, when they took BJ Raji at No. 10 then moved back up in round one to take Clay Matthews. Coincidentally, Green Bay is rumored to be interested in trading up again this time around.
If they stay put, the team will almost certainly address a defensive unit that’s become a weak link over the last few years. Harold Landry might be the most natural pass-rusher in the draft and he would help Green Bay make a seamless transition away from the aging Matthews. Marcus Davenport, who is athletically gifted but raw, is another option as is defensive back.
15. Oakland Raiders (from ARZ): Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA
The Raiders have needs all across their defense but the offensive line could quickly become a priority. Left tackle Donald Penn is 35 years old and the right side is a mess. The team is rumored to be smitten with Miller, who has a connection with offensive line coach Tom Cable.
A 6’8”, 310-pound behemoth, Miller could start on the right side before replacing Penn when Father Time finally comes for him.
16. Baltimore Ravens: Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA
Marcus Davenport is one of the more interesting prospects in this draft. He’s huge (6’7, 255), athletic (dominated the combine) and draws comparisons to future Hall of Famer Demarcus Ware. However, like Ware, he’s a small school standout who didn’t battle much elite competition.
The Ravens addressed their wide receiver needs with the additions of Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead, but could still take a young pass catcher here. Tight end, offensive tackle and even quarterback (Joe Flacco is 33 and hasn’t been productive in years) might also get a look.
17. Los Angeles Chargers: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
The Chargers have needs at defensive tackle, inside linebacker and safety, all of which have key prospects available here. They might also look for Phillip Rivers’ successor while they have a chance.
However, with Rivers still under center, it’s important that the team keeps him upright. McGlinchey doesn’t have Kolton Miller’s athletic profile and he struggled at times against speed rushers but he’s a steady tackle who could prove to be a solid starter.
TRADE!
Jacksonville Jaguars trade No. 29 overall, their second-round pick (No. 61 overall) and a 2019 first-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks for No. 18 overall.
This trade makes a ton of sense for both teams, which means it absolutely won’t happen. The Seahawks are rebuilding but wouldn’t pick again until round 4 unless they trade down. The Jags, meanwhile, are a QB away from being a perennial title contender and there happens to be a pretty good one available.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars (via BAL): Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
The Jaguars could’ve made the Super Bowl last season had it not brought Blake Bortles to a shootout with Tom Brady. Bortles got a new extension but it doesn’t guarantee him a future in Jacksonville unless he improves significantly.
By moving up for Jackson, the Jaguars at least hedge their bets on their QB quandary. He needs time to develop as a natural passer but he has all the tools to be great and his ability as a runner could get him on the field early in select packages. Plus, is there better marketing than the Jacksonville Jaguars having a guy named Jackson as its starting QB?
19. Dallas Cowboys: Leighton Vanden Esch, LB, Boise State
The Cowboys had a huge need at wideout even before Dez Bryant paid the iron price and was shipped out of town. So, you can’t rule out Dallas taking the first receiver off the board here.
However, Dallas’ defense is still a work in progress and there are reports that some inside the Cowboys’ front office liken Vanden Esch to Bears legend Brian Urlacher. Vanden Esch was wildly productive at Boise State but concerns over his neck may cause him to slide and has already scared off a few teams. If Dallas gets cold feet, anyone from the DJ Moore/Calvin Ridley/Courtland Sutton receiver tree would suffice.
20. Detroit Lions: Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama
The Lions should hope Harold Landry or Marcus Davenport drop to both pair with star defensive end Ezekiel Ansah and/or replace him if a long-term deal can’t be worked out.
Since that isn’t happening in this mock, Motown does the next best thing and lands a high-motor defensive tackle for the Motor City. The Lions haven’t had an interior presence since cutting Ndomakong Suh loose, and with Haloti Ngata also gone, they need someone who could cause disruption inside. That’s Payne’s forte.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (via BUF): Frank Ragnow, C, Arkansas
Even after adding left tackle Cordy Glenn in the trade-down with the Bills, the Bengals’ offensive line rebuild isn’t over. The team still has a huge need on the interior, which is why landing the versatile Frank Ragnow makes sense.
Ragnow played guard and center at Arkansas and his ability to play all three inside spots is helping climb up draft boards. Cincy could still use help in their defensive front seven and at receiver, but addressing the o-line should be mission one.
22. Buffalo Bills: James Daniels, C, Iowa
The Bills want to move up in the draft without giving up this pick and with good reason. With so many offensive linemen being pushed down the board thanks to the QB and the Bills having holes at tackle and center, it’s important that Buffalo finds a way to land its franchise QB without sacrificing a chance at getting him some protection.
Like Ragnow, Daniels can play guard or center, which comes in handy for Buffalo following Eric Wood’s retirement. Daniels comes from a school known for producing quality offensive linemen and he’s the kind of rugged mauler who can handle the snowy weather in a western New York.
23. New England Patriots (via LAR): Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama
The Patriots’ undoing last season was a defensive unit that fell apart at the seams due to injuries and a lack of depth. Those concerns only grew bigger after the departure of CB Malcolm Butler. That’s why, despite a need for offensive line help and a desire to find a new QB, New England needs to find some defensive playmakers in this draft.
Evans can team with and eventually replace the declining Jerrod Mayo to give the Pats a presence inside. He’s a tackling machine with the added ability to get after the passer in the right scheme. He could be the start of New England’s defensive rebuild.
24. Carolina Panthers: Will Hernandez, G, UTEP
Ideally, the Panthers would want either Daniels or Ragnow to fall to them. The team lost guard Andrew Norwell in free agency and aging center Ryan Kalil is set retire after this season.
With both gone, the Panthers turn to Hernandez, who is an old school bulldozer that will help open lanes for dynamic back Christian McCafferey and keep Cam Newton from running for his life. Cornerback, wife receiver and tight end are other areas of need, as well.
25. Tennessee Titans: Lorenzo Carter, LB, Georgia
Smart money is on Tennessee moving out of this spot. They need a pass-rusher and a linebacker but all four of the elite prospects at those positions will likely be gone when they get on the clock.
While a slight reach here, the 6’6” 243-pound Carter fills the Titans’ need for a linebacker who can get after the quarterback. The team has also been linked to DE Sam Hubbard, who shares Ohio State roots with new head coach Mike Vrabel. Either prospect is still a possibility even if the team trades back.
26. Atlanta Falcons: Taven Bryan, DT, Florida
Taven Bryan is a name that could come off the board sooner than some expect. He’s a hustler with a lightning-quick first step but he was just a one-year starter for the Gators, so he’s still a bit raw.
Some scouts see him as potentially the next J.J. Watt based on his athletic ability and work ethic. However, he’s going to need to pick up things fast to be on par with the three-time DPOY. Regardless, he’s an interior presence to go along with pass-rushing dynamos Vic Beasley and Tak McKinley.
TRADE!
The Cleveland Browns trade No. 35 and No. 64 (both second-round picks) to the New Orleans Saints for No. 27 overall.
With few needs and no second-round pick, the Saints opt to move out of the first round in exchange for a eight-spot drop. If New Orleans stays, there’s a good chance they take a tight end like Hayden Hurst or Mike Gesicki.
The bottom of the first round is where you may see teams with a surplus of Day 2 picks (like Cleveland) move up in order to get a prospect they like so they can sign them for an extra year.
27. Cleveland Browns (via NO): Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa
With so many teams in the bottom third of the first round looking for a corner, the Browns choose not to wait and move to grab one of the draft’s best ball hawks.
Jackson’s stock dropped a bit due to a subpar 40 time (believed to be the 4.5 range), but you can’t put a stopwatch on instincts or his knack for getting his hands on the football. Jackson snatched eight interceptions as a junior last season, and while the Browns addressed the secondary a bit in the offseason, adding another young playmaker can’t hurt.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers: Justin Reid, S, Stanford
If Vanden Esch or Evans don’t drop to Pittsburgh, this becomes an interesting spot for the Steelers. Do they find Ben Roethlisberger‘s heir apparent in Mason Rudolph here? Do they go running back in light of Le’Veon Bell’s contract issues? Corner? Defensive line? There are no wrong answers.
Even after signing Morgon Burnett away from the Packers, the Steelers could still use safety help. Reid is a name being passed around as a late first-round pick after a solid junior season.
29. Seattle Seahawks (via JAX): Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville
Other than quarterback, there isn’t a position that doesn’t need to be addressed here. The Seahawks spent the offseason riding themselves of nearly every big name on the roster. Richard Sherman? Gone. Michael Bennett? Gone. Jimmy Graham? Gone. Kam Chancellor? May never play again. Earl Thomas? On the trading block.
The main area of need is on the offensive line, which means someone like Georgia’s Isaiah Wynn or even Texas’ Connor Williams is possible. In this case, Seattle goes for the best defender available and hopes Alexander could be the start of the next Legion of Boom.
TRADE!
The Indianapolis Colts trade a second-round pick (No. 36 overall) and a fifth-round pick (No. 140) to the Minnesota Vikings for No. 30 overall
With the top linemen on both sides of the ball taken, Minnesota opts to bow out of the first round and let the Colts add to the roster. Indy could probably stay put and hope to address more needs on Day 2, but the second round could see a run on skill position players and the Colts might be left grasping at straws.
30. Indianapolis Colts (via MIN): DJ Moore, WR, Maryland
I was torn between taking the first receiver or going running back. Both are big needs for a Colts offense looking to get its groove back with a (hopefully) healthy Andrew Luck.
Moore is gaining momentum as the draft’s top wideout. He’s not as good of a route runner as Calvin Ridley or as big as Courtland Sutton but he’s got speed and is dangerous after the catch. With Donte Moncrief gone, the Colts could use another weapon opposite T.Y. Hilton and Moore is a solid #2.
31. New England Patriots: Isaiah Wynn, G, Georgia
The Patriots are a mortal lock to use one of its first four picks on a QB to eventually replace soon-to-be-41-year-old Tom Brady and this would be a good spot for Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph.
However, as long as TB12 is in a Patriots uniform, New England is a contender and the priority shifts to adding pieces that will help the team win now. After losing left tackle Nate Solder in free agency, finding someone who can protect Brady is important. Wynn played tackle in college but may be better suited at guard. Regardless of where he lines up, he’s a plug-and-play starter for a team in desperate need of talent.
TRADE!
The Denver Broncos trade a second-round pick (No. 40 overall), a fourth-round pick (No. 105 overall) and a fifth-round pick (No. 154 overall) to the Philadelphia Eagles for No. 32 overall
With no second or third-round pick, the Eagles are reportedly desperate to move out of the first round in order to secure more picks. The Broncos, having landed more picks in their own move downward earlier in the draft, use their surplus of Day 3 picks to get back into the opening salvo.
32. Denver Broncos (from PHI): Derrius Guice, RB, LSU
Yes, there are plenty of RBs that could’ve fell to Denver had they not moved up but let’s look at them, shall we? Georgia’s Sony Michel is a home-run threat with a knee issue that could shorten his career. Ronald Jones is a potential sleeper but there’s uncertainty over whether he can be a bell cow. Nick Chubb, Rashaad Penny and Bo Scarborough are all talented backs, but may be better suited for situational roles.
Derrius Guice, while lacking the hands to be a complete back, is a power back in the Thomas Rawls/Marshawn Lynch/Jonathan Stewart mold. He’s the kind of bruised a team that plays in cold weather like Denver needs. There are concerns over his maturity but if the Broncos can coach him up, they may have finally found an answer to their running game woes (and get him for an additional year by taking him in round one).
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