1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
Let me start out by saying this is a mistake. It’s not because I think Kyler Murray will be a bust. Guys who throw for 4,300 yards and 50+ TD while rushing for another stack don’t come around very often. I just don’t believe in using a first-round pick (let alone the first overall) on a QB when you drafted one in the first round last year. It’s too early to give up on Josh Rosen, and the Cardinals have plenty of needs elsewhere, especially on defense where there’s a ton of elite talent in this class. There’s a 50-50 chance Murray isn’t the pick here, but if he is, there’s going to be immense pressure on him to make Arizona not look foolish here.
2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State
Quinnen Williams might be the better fit (and ultimately the better player) but all signs point to Bosa being the pick here. Much like his Pro Bowl brother Joey, Nick is a complete defensive end who can be a force against the run or the pass. He’ll pair with Dee Ford to give opposing QBs nightmares on the outside. Bosa had some injury and maturity issues in college, but neither should impact his stock much, if at all.
TRADE! The New York Jets trade the 3rd overall pick to the Atlanta Falcons for the 14th overall pick, a 2019 second-round pick and a 2020 first-round pick.
The Jets desperate want to move down from the No. 3 spot, and many expect any team willing to meet their demands would do so for a quarterback. However, the defensive talent in this draft supersedes any passer not named Kyler Murray and the Falcons are no strangers to making a bold move to get someone they covet. In 2011, they moved up 21 spots to take Julio Jones, a move that helped turn the team into a contender.
3. Atlanta Falcons (from NYJ): Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
Three years removed from a Super Bowl appearance, the Falcons are more a victim of circumstance than a team in need of a talent infusion. There’s plenty of buzz surrounding their love for Ed Oliver, and with the Houston DT a lock to go top-five, Atlanta needs to aim high to land him. In the short-term, he’ll link with Vic Beasley and Grady Jarrett to bolster Atlanta’s front seven. Long-term, he can replace Jarrett, who is seeking a new contract, and be a disruptive force inside for the next decade.
4. Oakland Raiders: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
It’s hard to predict what Oakland will do here or anywhere else in the draft. Jon Gruden is the king of irrational confidence and Mike Mayock is a first-time GM. That being said, if Williams is still on the board when the Raiders are on the clock and they pass on him, Gruden and Mayock should send themselves home. Williams is a 300-pound wrecking ball who ran a 4.8 40 at the combine. He has the chance to be an interior menace of John Randle/Aaron Donald proportions. He doesn’t fill the Raiders need for an edge rusher after foolishly trading away Khalil Mack last season but he’s a hell of a consolation price.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Devin White, LB, LSU
This seems a bit high for an off-ball linebacker, but the Bucs have a need for a sideline-to-sideline terror after letting Kwon Alexander walk this spring. White ran a 4.4 40, the fastest of any linebacker ever, and is a former Dick Butkus award winner. He won’t give Tampa the pass-rushing boost they need, but defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will find a way to unleash him just the same.
6. New York Giants: Josh Allen, DE, Kentucky
It’s a shame the draft isn’t being held in New York because the drama surrounding both local teams would make for good television. After purging the roster of young talent while continuing to throw support behind decaying QB Eli Manning, GM Dave Gettleman punctured more holes in a roster that already had plenty. Allen falling here would be a steal and a welcomed distraction from the fact Gettleman shipped two of his best pass-rushers in back-to-back offseasons. Still, this team needs a quarterback, and more than that, they need the right quarterback. Until he’s found, the temperature under Gettleman’s seat will remain hot.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: TJ Hockenson, TE, Iowa
I’m willing to be wrong here. Conventional wisdom suggests the Jaguars will attempt to protect their $88 million investment in Nick Foles by drafting any of the bevy of offensive lineman still on the board. However, even with time to throw, Foles doesn’t have a go-to guy. If Hockenson is in the Gronk-Kelce-Kittle master class of tight ends, it would make sense to pair him with a QB who loves throwing to that position.
TRADE! The Detroit Lions trade the No. 8 overall pick to the Washington Redskins for the No. 15 overall pick and a 2019 third-round pick.
The Lions haven’t hidden their desire to move down to acquire more picks while word out of DC is Redskins owner Dan Snyder is taking control of the first round with his eyes on snagging a QB. You know what that means? Something crazy is going to happen. Moving up to 8 to grab any of the three remaining QBs makes sense (as would staying put and seeing if one falls) but I wouldn’t rule out Snyder moving even higher if it means getting what he wants.
8. Washington Redskins: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
You would think throwing for 4,800 yards and 54 touchdowns against top-level competition would draw a ton of interest, but opinions of Dwayne Haskins seem to be all over the place. Some think he’s a prototypical passer and the most pro-ready signal caller in the draft while others believe he’s nothing more than media hype. With Alex Smith’s career likely over, Colt McCoy recovering from a broken leg and Case Keenum set to be the starter, the Redskins can’t afford to pick nits when it comes to finding a long-term answer at QB. Whether you believe Haskins is the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th best QB in this draft, he’s better than whatever Washington currently has on the roster.
TRADE! The Buffalo Bills trade the 9th overall pick to the New York Giants for the 17th overall pick, a 2019 fourth-round pick and two 2019 fifth-round picks.
With two QBs already off the board and some needy teams (Denver, Cincinnati, Miami) standing in between them, Giants GM Dave Gettleman does what he does best: trade up.
9. New York Giants (from BUF): Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
The Giants reportedly really, really, really love Daniel Jones. They might even consider him at 6 depending on how the chips in front of them fall. Upon first glance, it’s easy to see why New York is so infatuated. Jones is big (6’5, 225), can make plays with his arm or his feet and he came up under the same coach who developed both Manning brothers (David Cutcliffe). Legendary scout Gil Brandt compared Jones to Peyton Manning, which is as big of a stretch as you can get, but it might be enough to get him drafted higher than his talent should allow. Jones isn’t the ninth-best player in the draft, but the Giants are desperate. Gettleman, for all his “I don’t care what people think” bravado, knows he can’t leave this draft without a successor for a 38-year-old QB whose been on the decline for years now. The Giants get their guy, and all he has to do is live up to being one Manning while replacing the other.
TRADE! Denver Broncos trade the No. 10 overall pick to the Carolina Panthers for the No. 16 overall pick, a 2019 third-round pick and a 2019 fifth-round pick.
With needs at inside linebacker, quarterback and along the offensive line, the Broncos would be wise to move down a few spots in order to fill more holes, even if it means missing out on rumored target Drew Lock. The Panthers, meanwhile, are reportedly looking to move up to get Cam Newton some much-needed protection. Four teams trading into the top 10 seems a bit wild, but this has the makings of being a wild draft.
10. Carolina Panthers (from DEN): Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
The past few years haven’t been kind to Cam Newton. Injuries to the talent around him combined with playing behind a turnstile offensive line led to an unnecessary amount of punishment for the Panthers QB. The result is Newton undergoing his second shoulder surgery in as many years. If Newton, who turns 30 in May, is to be Carolina’s franchise face in the short term or long term, he needs someone who will keep him off his back. Enter Dillard, a mammoth 6’5”, 315-pound wall of a man who is considered the best pass protector in this draft. Dillard’s presence allows the returning Daryl Williams to stay on the right side where he’s best suited and might give Cam a chance at seeing age-35 in an NFL uniform.
11. Cincinnati Bengals: Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
With declining QB Andy Dalton set to turn 32 in October and owed $34 million over the next two seasons, the Bengals could be in the market for a new signal caller. Instead, they snag one of the best options in a thin LB class. Cincinnati’s defense needed a new man in the middle even before bidding adieu to problem child Vontaze Burfict this offseason, and Bush is the perfect replacement. He’s on the smaller side (5’11”, 234 lbs), but he’s fast (4.43 40) with the instincts to make an impact in coverage or the run game.
12. Green Bay Packers: Jonah Williams, G/T, Alabama
The Packers filled holes on the defensive side of the ball but still have to fix its biggest need: keeping Aaron Rodgers upright. Potential championship seasons have been derailed by Green Bay’s failure to protect one of the league’s best QBs. With needs at guard and tackle, it makes sense to draft someone who can play either spot. Williams played both tackle spots and guard while at Alabama and his versatility could land him in the top-10 if a QB run doesn’t push him down. He could easily fill in at either guard spot for the Packers then slide over to right tackle once the team lets Bryan Bulaga walk after the season.
13. Miami Dolphins: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
Initially, it seemed like Miami would wait on a QB and use this draft to address other needs but that’s a pretty risky gamble for a team that hasn’t had a franchise passer since Dan Marino retired. Lock isn’t a can’t-miss product by any means. He’s the kind of strong-armed gunslinger that makes coaches and fans alike nervous. 10 years ago, you might have called Lock another “next Brett Favre” clone. Today, the best-case scenario for Lock is he’s Jay Cutler with a better head on his shoulders. If Miami can build around him, he has a shot at bringing hope to South Beach for the first time in decades.
14. New York Jets (from ATL): Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
The Jets may regret moving down and passing on a potential defensive cornerstone at the top of the draft, but landing a possible top-10 talent in Taylor here is a nice get. Taylor is a road-grading mauler who will make life easier for Le’Veon Bell and Sam Darnold. He doesn’t play the glitzier left side, which is why he might not go as high as someone like Dillard but he has the potential to be a staple on the right side for the next decade.
15. Detroit Lions (from WSH): Brian Burns, DE, Boston College
Sure, the Lions paid Trey Flowers big money to be the catalyst of Matt Patricia’s defense, but why stop there? Detroit gets to face Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins twice a year. You need all the pass rush you can get. Burns proved he could bulk up and still be the same speed demon who notched 23 sacks in three years at BC when he ran a 4.5 40 at 249 pounds. With Montez Sweat (heart condition) and Rashan Gary (shoulder) dealing with injury red flags, Burns could leapfrog them up the ranks.
16. Denver Broncos: Cody Ford, G/T, Oklahoma
There’s going to be temptation to take a quarterback in light of Joe Flacco being....well, Joe Flacco. Regardless of who is behind center, improving the interior of the line is key, especially after losing three starters in free agency. Cody Ford moved around a bit at Oklahoma while blocking for the likes of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. That will probably remain the case in the pros, and with Mike Munchak in charge of his development, Ford could emerge as one of the gems of this draft.
17. Buffalo Bills (from NYG via CLE): Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan
Both of Buffalo’s lines are a work in progress. QB Josh Allen spent most of his rookie season under duress behind a front five that couldn’t keep the pocket clean. On defense, Kyle Williams retired, Jerry Hughes is in a contract year and Trent Murphy didn’t contribute much. A labral tear and a lack of college production could cause Gary to drop despite his freakish athleticism but his ability to play inside or outside would benefit a Bills team in need of both.
18. Minnesota Vikings: Garrett Bradbury, C, North Carolina State
According to Pro Football Focus, each of the Vikings’ five starters along the offensive line were a liability in pass protection, which is problematic when you’ve spent $84 million on a quarterback. Kirk Cousins wasn’t the only affected by poor line play. Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray both found room to run hard to come by as Minnesota fielded one of the league’s worst rushing attacks. Using a first-round pick on an interior lineman isn’t sexy, but Vikings fans should remember how important Steve Hutchinson was during his tenure. Bradbury might not be Hutchinson but he’s a plug-and-play starter on a line leaking with holes.
19. Tennessee Titans: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
Four years after being selected with No. 2 overall pick, Marcus Mariota has yet to become the dual-threat superstar he was at Oregon. Injuries have played a role in Mariota’s stunted growth, but a lack of talent around him is equally responsible. The Titans haven’t invested much draft capital on receiving options beyond Corey Davis, who has struggled with his own consistency issues. With Delanie Walker set to turn 35 in August and coming off a major ankle injury, it would make sense to find a potential replacement. Fant isn’t getting the same love as his college teammate, TJ Hockenson, but he’s an amazing athlete and reliable target. He paced all tight ends at the combine in 40 time (4.5), broad jump (127 inches), vertical jump (39.5 inches), three-cone (6.8 seconds) and 60-yard dash (11.5). He’s the kind of big-play threat Tennessee sorely lacks in the passing game.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Byron Murphy, CB, Washington
With the Steelers now having to go up against AJ Green, Odell Beckham Jr. and whoever the Ravens tab as their go-to receiver twice a year, the need for a true shutdown corner is heightened. The team signed Steven Nelson to pair with Joe Haden, but Haden is on the wrong side of 30 and going into his walk year. There’s debate over who the top corner is in this draft. It could be LSU’s Greedy Williams or Georgia’s DeAndre Baker or Murphy, who had seven interceptions in 20 games for UW. Whether they go corner or another pass rusher, Pittsburgh must adapt to a suddenly pass-happy AFC North.
21. Seattle Seahawks: Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State
Even after trading DE Frank Clark to Kansas City for the 29th overall pick, a move down can’t be ruled out. The Seahawks only have five picks in this year’s draft and one of them will have to be spent on Clark’s replacement. That man could be Sweat, whose amazing combine is likely nullified by a concerning heart condition. If Sweat’s heart holds up, his combination of size (6’6, 260lbs), speed (4.4 40) and production (12 sacks last season) could make him the next impact player on a defense that continues to churn them out.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
There was a time where Ole Miss speedster DK Metcalf seemed destined to be the first WR off the board but poor agility drills and durability concerns have caused other receivers to potentially surpass him. One of those players is Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, cousin of All-Pro wideout Antonio Brown. Brown is a DeSean Jackson-like burner who makes up for his lack of size (5’9”, 166 pounds) by being a dangerous open-field playmaker who can take any pass to the house. The Ravens also have needs at linebacker, pass-rusher and on the interior of the offensive line, but the need to get Lamar Jackson some help, whether it’s Brown or Metcalf or (insert name here), is paramount to any of those issues.
TRADE! Houston Texans trade the No. 23 overall pick to the New England Patriots for the No. 32 overall pick, a 2019 fourth-round pick and a 2019 seventh-round pick.
The Texans need an offensive tackle but are reportedly unwilling to move up for one despite having the ammo to do so. The Patriots are more likely to trade out of the first round, but after taking so many hits on the defensive line and with 12 picks at their disposal, this might be the year they change directions.
23. New England Patriots (from HOU): Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson
After losing Trey Flowers, Malcolm Brown and Danny Shelton in the off-season, an already-thin Patriots defensive line suddenly looks anemic. Michael Bennett was acquired to offset some of the losses, but he’s 33 and only under contract through 2020. Ferrell has a similar build (6’4, 264 lbs) as the departed Flowers (6’2”, 265) and is coming off a monsterous season where he notched 11.5 sacks while forcing three fumbles. A lot has been said about the depth of defensive line talent in this draft but there’s a significant drop after the second wave of players (Sweat/Ferrell/Dexter Lawrence/Jerry Tillery) come off the board toward the end of the round. If the Patriots want a difference maker, they’ll probably have to move up to get one.
24. Oakland Raiders (from CHI): Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
There will be special attention paid to this pick because it’s the first of the ones acquired in the Khalil Mack trade. Oakland filled some problem areas through trade and free agency but running back was not one of them. With Marshawn Lynch retiring, there’s an opening for a bellcow back who can take pressure off Derek Carr (or whoever Gruden settles on as his QB). Jacobs is considered the best of a poor running back class. He’s a 5’10”, 210-pound wrecking ball with a Frank Gore-ish ability to run with power or speed while still being able to make plays in space. He has just 251 carries in two seasons after playing behind Damien Harris at Bama, which is either a good thing or a bad thing depending on where you stand on collegiate workloads, which means he shouldn’t have a lot of wear and tear on him.
25. Philadelphia Eagles: Chris Lindstrom, G, Boston College
The Eagles’ strength is in their offensive line, and with Nick Foles no longer around for relief, protecting Carson Wentz is an even higher priority. With the exception of right tackle Lane Johnson, a case can be made for an upgrade at each of the four remaining spots on the line. Center Jason Kelce has flirted with retiring. Left tackle Jason Peters, who turned 37 in January, probably isn’t far behind him. Guard Brandon Brooks tore his Achilles in the playoffs and Issac Seumalo is replaceable on the other side. There’s a contingency plan in place but adding the draft’s best guard in Lindstrom isn’t a terrible idea.
26. Indianapolis Colts: Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame
The Colts turn things around last season thanks in large part to a solid draft led by G Quentin Nelson and Defensive Rookie of the Year Darius Leonard. They could keep that momentum going with Tillery, a 6’6”, 295 pound monster who posted the highest pass-rushing scores among defensive tackles last season according to PFF and had a field day at the Combine despite working out with a torn labrum. Adding Tillery to a defensive line that also includes Justin Houston and Jabaal Sheard would make life tough for opposing quarterbacks.
27. Oakland Raiders (from DAL): Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
Once considered the draft’s top corner and a potential top-10 pick, Greedy Williams’ status is now uncertain. There’s concerns his tall but lanky frame (6’2”, 185) will make him a poor tackler. The flip side to that is he’s a freakish athlete with 4.3 speed who allowed the lowest catch percentage in the SEC last season. With a glaring need for a shutdown corner, the Raiders might overlook Williams’ inability to get physical if it means putting the clamps on the likes of Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen. If not, they could look at Temple’s Rock Ya-Sin or Georgia’s DeAndre Baker.
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