If you want to get technical, the 2012 baseball season started last week with a barely-watched Oakland-Seattle series brought to you in the wee hours of the night from The Land of the Rising Sun. If you were up at the butt crack of dawn to watch those games, more power to you. However, even the seven people that qualify for that last sentence would tell you that those games were of no consequence to the rest of this season.
The last couple of years here at BoomRoastedSports, we've broke down the league, division-by-division, and gave you our picks. This year's version is a bit more scaled down. Why? Well, for one, this was a busy last few months sports-wise from Bountygate to the Peyton Manning sweepstakes to the underwhelming Dwight Howard pursuit as well as a spirited men's college basketball tournament(the latter two not getting much ink from this very site, but whatever). Secondly, nobody really cares who's going to finish fifth in the NL Central. People want the meat and potatoes. Who's going to the playoffs? Who's winning it all? Who's the MVP? Things like that.
So, this year, you get all the meat and potatoes you can stuck. I went with strictly division winners, handed out some awards and even tabbed a few players and teams to keep an eye on down the stretch. So, here you go, America, BoomRoastedSports' take on the 2012 MLB season.
NL East: Miami Marlins - A bit of a surprise, considering how stacked the division is and all the love experts routinely give Philadelphia and Atlanta, but take a closer look at the roster. They'll have the fastest 1-2-3 at the top of the lineup in Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonafacio and Hanley Ramirez. They have one of the league's best young boppers in RF Giancarlo Stanton(formerly Mike Stanton) and even the guys hitting behind Stanton are formidable: Twitter sensation Logan Morrison, catcher John Buck, 1B Gaby Sanchez and veteran Omar Infante. The rotation hinges on the health of Josh Johnson. When not on the DL, Johnson's one of the best pitchers in the game but he spent much of 2011 on the sidelines. Behind him, though, you have former White Sox ace Mark Buehrle, decent young hurlers Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez as well as the always-fiery Carlos Zambrano. Granted, it's not like the big names you'll find in Philly's rotation, but when a guy like Big Z is your fifth starter, you aren't doing TOO bad. The Marlins also signed Heath Bell away from San Diego to shut the door as their closer. Bell's saved at least 40 games for an average Padres team the last three seasons, so they should expect at least as much from him in South Florida.
The biggest wild card in MIA will be new manager Ozzie Guillen. Guillen was known for being as much of a loose cannon as he was a winner in Chicago the last few years. His World Series ring suggests he has what it takes to lead a young team to the Promised Land, but his ugly exit from the Windy City also suggests it will be a turbulent ride. Still, if Ozzie can get a guy like Zambrano back to his old form and reign in notorious knuckleheads like Reyes and Ramirez, then this team will be going places. If not, it's back to looking up to Atlanta and Philly like the experts keep suggesting.
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers - The loss of Prince Fielder is supposed to be a big blow until you realize the team went with quantity over quality in replacing the big man at first. Aramis Ramirez isn't the devastating bopper that Prince was but he's good enough to protect reigning MVP Ryan Braun, who eliminates the loss of Prince simply by dodging that 50-game substance abuse ban. Youngsters like Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks have some pop as well, so long as they can stay healthy. Alex Gonzalez has put up decent power numbers in his long career and playing his home games in Miller Park will certianly help him out. Center fielder Nyjer Morgan returns to bring speed at the top of the lineup. So, the lineup is going to be just fine without Prince.
The rotation, meanwhile, is pretty damn good, too. Zach Grienke had a pretty good debut season with the Brew Crew(16-6, 201 K's, 3.98 ERA). Yovani Gallardo is an excellent #2 as well and he struck out a little over 200 batters as well last year. Shaun Marcum is perfectly suited as the #3. Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson? Meh, you can't win them all. The bullpen has a good young closer in John Axford and, even if he somehow falls apart, the team can always lean on K-Rod, Francisco Rodriguez, to clean up the 9th inning.
The Brewers aren't dead in the water without Prince. Certianly, his presence would still be nice to have but the load now falls squarely on the shoulders of Braun to carry this team. Can the MVP still produce without the big fella in front of him? I'd like to think so. This is still a very good Milwaukee team and, lest we forget, they were very close to making the World Series last year. The same could hold true this year. If there's a scary dark horse in the National League, it's these Brewers.
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers - This came down to L.A. or San Fran and I, literally, went to a coin flip. The Giants have elite pitching while the Dodgers have the bats that the Giants sorely lack. If you combine both teams, you'd get a pretty solid contender. Regardless, I'm continuing to show I haven't learned my lesson by picking the Dodgers for the fourth time in five years. The Dodgers were distracted by the bankruptcy/divorce issues of soon-to-be former owner Frank McCourt. Now, however, the team is to be taken over by a group lead by former Laker great Magic Johnson and stability is in place for the first time in a long time. That's perfect timing because the Dodgers have the reigning NL Cy Young in Clayton Kershaw and a man who came thisclose to winning the NL MVP in CF Matt Kemp. The team gave Kemp the long-term security he'd been seeking after his breakout 2011(.298, 39 HR, 40 SB, 126 RBI). Still, Kemp needs to prove that he can do it on a more consistant level. Two years ago, Kemp was on the trading block waiting for the next thing smoking out of Hollywood. Now, he's the franchise. The team also needs more out of fellow OF Andre Ethier, who flirted with the Triple Crown early in 2010 and then fell off the face of the Earth last season. Beyond Ethier and Kemp, the lineup has some guys who aren't household names but can still swing the lumber. First baseman James Loney lacks pop but he gets on base and hits just under .300 routinely. Shortstop Dee Gordon is a speed demon who will set the table at the top of the lineup and veterans Juan Uribe and Juan Rivera are oft-traveled but still serviceable.
As for the rotation, Kershaw finally put everything together last year with great award-winning season(21-5, 2.28 ERA and 248 K's). Behind him, some guys who haven't quite put it together yet. Chad Billingsley is supposed to be a solid #2 by now but he's been maddeningly inconsistant. Ted Lilly and Aaron Harang are elder statesman who strike out a lot of batters but also give up quite a bit of runs and former Brewer Chris Capuano is pretty much a placeholder as the team's fifth starter. The bullpen, which once had lights-out closers like Eric Gagne and Jon Broxton holding down the fort in the 9th inning, now has a bit of uncertianty. Javy Guerra has the opening nod as closer but he'll feel the breath of setup man Kenley Jensen on his neck before too long. Both can handle the closing duties but both are relatively inexperienced(although Guerra did handle the job nicely after Broxton imploded last year).
You can pretty much pick the NL West winner out of a hat. San Francisco will always be in it. Arizona and Colorado have made strides in recent years and you can't completely rule out San Diego. However, things came full circle for the Dodgers last year and with the ugliness of the McCourt saga now over with, the Dodgers can finally contend behind the arm of Kershaw and the bat of Kemp.
NL Wild Cards
1. Philadelphia Phillies - I know, it's herasy to pick anyone over the Phillies in the NL East but considering this team was supposed to blow through the National League last year and didn't make it out of Round 1, I'm understandably skeptical. Here's why I'm down on Philly. Their once-vaunted lineup is wounded. 1B Ryan Howard, a notorious slow starter to begin with, is out til at least June with an Achilles injury. 2B Chase Utley will miss the start of the season because he, too, is banged up. SS Jimmy Rollins is getting long in the tooth. You factor all those things in and what's that lineup look like? Hunter Pence and a band of journeymen. How much you liking that Jim Thome/Ty Wiggington platoon at first in Howard's absence, eh? Sure, Shane Victorino has 30-30 potential, but without that protection in the lineup, that seems far-fetched.
The calling card for Philly, as it's always been, is the rotation. Doc Halladay and Cliff Lee is the best 1-2 in the majors and Cole Hamels is in a contract year. Joe Blanton and Vance Worley are serviceable at the back end of the rotation, too. The team made another big offseason move by bringing in Jonathan Papelbon from Boston to close. Paps is still a very good closer but he still has a tendency to choke in big spots. This isn't the wild-eyed fire-throwing youngster from years ago. Papelbon is 31 now and the pressure has worn on him a bit from his days of carrying the Red Sox. Do I think he'll fail in Philly? No. But let's pencil him in as a slightly-better version of what Brad Lidge was giving the Phils a couple years ago. Mariano Rivera, he is not.
Still, Philly's good enough to make the playoffs and, if not for the early season injury woes, they might take the East yet again. I'm just a bit hesistant this time around. If the Phils couldn't get it done last year when everything is in place, how much faith do you have in them now when the wheels are coming off?
2. Cincinatti Reds - Initially, the Reds were my pick to represent the National League but I had a last minute change of heart when I peaked at the rotation. Mat Latos, acquired from San Diego, might be the best arm on this starting rotation and he's a #2, at best. Johnny Cueto is coming off an injury plagued season and the rest of the staff is underwhelming. Bronson Arroyo? Irrelevant for years. Homer Bailey and Mike Leake? Still haven't made the leap.
The saving grace for Cincinatti is the lineup. With Albert Pujols and Price Fielder now in the AL, the time has come for Joey Votto to take the mantle as "The Man" in the NL. With an MVP already to his credit, a lineup buit to protect him and a hitter-friendly ballpark, Votto could be in the market for a monster season and with a $200 million extension coming, he'll need it to justify his new deal. Around Votto are power/speed combo threats in CF Drew Stubbs and 2B Brandon Phillips. Both are legit 20-20 threats and Phillips adds a solid glove to go with his lethal bat and legs. RF Jay Bruce is on the come-up, too. He just needs to limit his strikeouts and work on getting his average up. Still, hitting behind Votto, he's a threat for 30 HRs and 100 RBIs. Rounding out the names in this hit parade is Scott Rolen. Rolen's a mortal lock to miss half the season with some kind of injury but if, and this is a big IF, Rolen can stay healthy, he's excellent at the plate and in the field. In the bullpen, the name getting all the pub is hard-throwing Cuban reliever Aroldis Chapman. The Reds aren't quite sure what to with Chapman. They'd prefer he crack the rotation but, with recent signing Ryan Madson out for the season, Chapman may have to take over closer duties. Dusty Baker is world renowed for wearing out his bullpen and I fully expect that trend to continue with Chapman, as he's the best young pitcher on the roster.
The Reds have a tremendous amount of talent, but almost none of it surfaces in the pitching staff beyond Chapman and perhaps Latos. That's a huge pill to swallow for a team that plays in a hitter's park in a division filled with good hitters. If the Reds can keep opponents' bats at bay, they can make some noise. For now, they are a very good team that will have to resort to winning slugfests until the rotation comes of age.
Wild Card winner: Philadelphia over Cincinnatti - It's a battle of two potent offenses, provided Philly gets its injury woes straightened out by October, but how much faith do you have in Cincy getting the best of Roy Halladay with everything on the line? Yeah, I didn't think so.
NL MVP: Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers - He was right there to win this thing last year and, had L.A. did a little better in the standings, he might have edged out Braun with a near 40-40 year. This year, I think he takes it. It won't be without some serious competition though. Milwaukee is now more Braun's team than it's ever been and if he gets them back to last year's form, he'll be right in the thick of this race. Reds 1B Joey Votto is the best at his position in the league and he has the benefits of a solid lineup and a hitter-friendly ballpark. Still, I think the security of a new deal and new ownership allows Kemp to get comfortable in the middle of that Dodger lineup and I think he flirts with 40-40 again with a average slightly above .300
NL MVP Darkhorse: Hanley Ramirez, 3B, Miami Marlins - He's hitting in a lineup that features another MVP contender in SS Jose Reyes and a potential perennial All-Star in Giancarlo Stanton. Like Kemp and Braun, he has the power-speed combo going for him. If Miami is every bit as successful as I project and Ramirez handles his new position at third base well, he could be a threat to steal this thing. Both of those aspects are big IFs, however, and Ramirez's reputation for being a bit of a malcontent doesn't help his chances with the voters.
NL Cy Young: Zack Grienke, Milwaukee Brewers - The NL is stacked with pitching. Halladay and Lee will be in the running, as will guys like two-time winner Tim Lincecum and teammate Matt Cain in San Francisco. Eventhough I don't like Milwaukee getting passed Philly in the "play-in game", I still think Grienke builds on last year's season and notches 20 wins with his usual 200 K's. It's not the sexy pick, but it gets boring picking the same guy every year. I know that. Voters know that.
NL Cy Young Dark Horse: Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals - As with Hanley, a couple of big IFs here with Strasburg. However, IF he stays healthy and IF he returns to pre-injury form, Strasburg's numbers will, at the very least, rival Kershaw's numbers from last season. In another division, the Nationals could be a contender but, for all their talent, it's going to be tough for them to climb past a bolstered Miami team, an already formidable Phils team and a Braves team that still has some experts' resepct. Again, IF Strasburg is the goods like many thought coming out of the draft, then he can take this award with a healthy 2012.
Biggest Surprise: Washington Nationals - I'm making this pick with a lot of hope since I live two hours away from D.C. and Gabe is now a reformed Nats fan. As I mentioned before, the road to glory is pretty long for the Nats but, my God, look at this roster. Behind Strasburg in the rotation is former Athletic hurler Gio Gonzalez, who had a lot of sleeper buzz in Oakland last year. Edwin Jackson and Jordan Zimmerman are solid as the third and fourth starter. In the bullpen, Drew Storen saved 43 games in his first full year as closer last year. Storen will miss the first few weeks of the season, so closing duties go to former Phils/Astros reliever Brad Lidge. That's not a bad replacement for Washington. As for the lineup, First baseman Michael Morse(also hurt) had a breakout year last year(31 HRs, 95 RBI, .303 avg) and his spot is being held down by former Pirate Adam LaRoche. The team also has perennial All-Star Ryan Zimmerman at third, who brings a big pop to the middle of the lineup and a solid glove in the field. The team needs more out of big 2011 free agent signing Jayson Werth, who flopped in his first year after leaving Philly. If Werth returns to his Philly days, then this lineup gets a bit scarier. For now, the team needs a few breaks to get to a very steep mountian top but I think 85 wins and nipping at Atlanta's heels for third in the East is reasonable.
Biggest Disappointment: Atlanta Braves - I had other Braves fans attempt to soak me with confidence and well wishes for the 2012 Braves, but I'm just not buying it. As a Braves fan for nearly two decades, I can't see how this is better than a 80-win ballclub. Let's take a look at the rotation, shall we? Tim Hudson....injured. Out til at least May after back surgery and he was falling apart anyway. Tommy Hanson....I'm not a believer. Sorry. Jair Jurrjens....trade bait. Mike Minor, Julio Tehreran, Brandon Beachy.....we'll see how it goes with them. Livan Hernandez....would've been great a decade ago. The bullpen? Solid. Best in years, but Fredi Gonzalez ABUSED Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel last year. How do they respond this year? As for the lineup, someone please tell me where the runs are coming from? Chipper's already on the DL in what will be his final year. Dan Uggla can't hit above .250 since getting that huge deal a year ago, power numbers be damned. Jason Heyward took a huge step back after being heralded as "the next Hank Aaron". Martin Prado, Matt Diaz, Freddie Freeman? Ho-hum. Michael Bourn was a nice pickup but he's Juan Pierre with a better arm. Basically, it's Brian McCann and a lot of hope.
Look, I get a lot of flack for being irresponsibly hard on all of my teams but I wasn't going to be a homer here. The Braves need a lot to break their way to be as good as speculated. Prado and Heyward need to bounce back. Uggla needs to get that average up. The rotation needs to stay healthy and produce. Kimbrel and Venters can't afford to fall apart. My skepticism runs high here. The NL East is LOADED. The Braves are a good team and, in a NL with no real elite team, they can make a run, but I want to see that last year's collapse didn't kill this team before I put them right back on the high horse.
AL East: Tampa Bay Rays - Their World Series run a couple years ago established the Tampa Bay Rays as a legit contender with the enviable combination of talent and youth at a discounted price. However, being saddled in a loaded AL East with big spenders like Boston and New York has made the road back to the Series significantly harder than it is for, say, the Texas Rangers. Left for dead late last season, the Rays pulled off a historic turnaround to steal the Wild Card spot away from Boston before bowing out in Round 1 of the playoffs. This year, they get to start the season with MVP candidate 3B Evan Longoria as well as bring back an old friend to protect Longo in 1B Carlos Pena. Rounding out the stars in the lineup is heralded prospect Desmond Jennings, super utility man Ben Zobrist and 30-30 threat B.J. Upton(when he comes back from the DL). That quintet gives the Rays a slew of bats that can rival those of the Sox or Yanks. What sets the Rays apart from their big market brothers is their pitching. Led by former #1 overall pick David Price, the Rays' rotation might be the deepest its been in years. Behind Price is fellow young fireballer "Big Game" James Shields, who emerged as a Cy Young dark horse and true innings eater last season with a 16-12 record, 225 K's, a 2.82 ERA and an astonishing 11 complete games. Jeremy Hellickson and Jeff Niemann each had double digits in wins and the rotation gets a boost from another potential star in last season's phenom, Matt Moore.
The bullpen, as usual, is Tampa's Achilles' heel. Kyle Farnsworth was tabbed as the team's closer but quickly found himself on the D.L., leaving closing duties to either Joel Peralta or former Tigers closer Fernando Rodney. The Rays have gotten by with journeymen in the late innings in years past so I don't forsee this being something that trips them up(especially when Farnsworth comes back) but if there's a chink in the armor, it's here. Beyond that, a healthy Rays team has everything needed to make another World Series run. Their rotation is six deep, when you include Wade Davis, and the lineup features some of the best young bats in the game. On top of that, the Rays might have the game's best manager in Joe Maddon. All in all, this team is the quintessential David ready to do battle with a bunch of rich A.L. Goliaths.
AL Central: Detroit Tigers - The Tigers have garnered a ton of sleeper buzz following their signing of Prince Fielder to tag team with Miguel Cabrera and form the best 1-2 hitting combo the game has seen since the days of Manny and Big Papi. Having two MVP-worthy bats in the middle of the lineup on a team that already has the reigning Cy Young and MVP(as well as the AL's best pitcher) in a division that has been stripped to say the least will naturally get you a lot of preseason love. However, while Motown should run away with the Central yet again, there are some causes for concern. For one, spring training has taught us that Cabrera is as horrid with the glove in his new position at third base as he is deadly with the bat when at the plate. Teams have gotten away with poor defenders before, but having bad defense at the hot corners(Prince is no J.T. Snow either) can be a death knell in tight games. Another issue is there isn't really a proven #2 behind Justin Verlander. Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello are all talented young arms but get dwarfed when compared to rotatations such as Tampa's or Los Angeles'. On top of that, Verlander put in a lot of innings last year to help carry the Tigers. It's impossible to expect him to repeat last season and, even if he could, it's impossible to think he wouldn't eventually break down in the postseason. That means the Tigers' big bats are going to have put up big numbers to take pressure off an adequate overall starting rotation, which something Detroit is very capable of with guys like Fielder and Cabrera as well as youngsters like C Alex Avila and 2B Ryan Raburn.
As for the bullpen, it's a nice mix of seasoned vets and young arms. Jose Valverde is back as the closer fresh off of saving 49 games last season. Assisting him will be notoriously efficient setup man Octavio Dotel and up-and-comer Danny Schlereth. The Tigers have a lot of sizzle and all of the big names and big spending usually tricks experts into jumping on the bandwagon early on. However, when you look around the league, your typical AL contender is littered with young talent and prized free agents. The Angels have three Cy Young candidates in their rotation as well as a multi-time MVP and two-time champion that they just brought in to anchor the lineup. The Rays are gushing with young stars. The Yankees have big names everywhere. The Tigers don't have much that sets them apart from the pack and the lack of depth in the rotation behind their golden arm in Verlander as well as what looks to be a very pourous defensive unit might make them just another flashy pick that turns into a early exit.
AL West: Los Angeles Angels - The easiest division pick of any of the six, even with back-to-back AL champion Texas in the West as well. On paper, the Angels have the best rotation in the American League and possibly all of baseball. Jered Weaver's 2011 season was trumped by Justin Verlander's season of the ages but it would have been Cy worthy in any other year(18-8, 2.41 ERA, 198 K's). Dan Haren had a solid 2011 as well and the rotation gets a boost with the addition of former Rangers ace C.J. Wilson. Bill Simmons made this comment about the Angels' rotation and I find it apt: "When Ervin Santana is your fourth starter, you have a damn good rotation." The bullpen is solid as well. Young closer Jordan Walden notched 33 saves last year and he's protected by All-Star relievers like LaTroy Hawkins, Jason Isringhausen and Scott Downs.
Then, of course, there's the bats. You might have heard that the Angels added a thumper that goes by the name of Albert Pujols. Pujols comes to the AL straight from dominating the National League with a resume that includes three MVPs, two World Series titles, nine All Star appearences and two Gold Gloves. Whether he was worth the $254 million the Angels gave him is another story, but any time you can add the best player in baseball to your franchise, you have to do it. Pujols won't have the same protection around him in the lineup in L.A. as he did in St. Louis, but his presence is sure to make guys like Vernon Wells, Howard Kendrick and Torii Hunter more productive. Even if L.A's lineup doesn't have the fantasy baseball feel of New York's or Detroit's, it's still pretty potent and Pujols has proven that he's capable of lighting up a scoreboard regardless of who's hitting in front or behind him.
With their big spending which includes stealing the best pitcher from their division rival, the Angels are not only the team to beat in the West, they might just be the favorites in the A.L. Pujols legitimizes a lineup that has spent dollars year after year to become formidable. The presence of Wilson rounds out a rotation that already has a couple of Cy Young candidates. If the guys around Pujols can take advantage of the opposition's fear of letting Phat Albert beat them, then the Angels will have a pretty easy road to the World Series. However, that's a slightly big if. Hunter and Wells haven't been relevant for years and Kendrick can't seem to avoid the injury bug. Even Pujols, at 32, was facing questions last season about whether he's lost a step. That might all sound like nitpicking come October, but if there's weaknesses to find, don't say I didn't warn you about it now.
AL Wild Cards
1. New York Yankees: The early verdict when we go to the scorecards on their much balleyhooed trade of touted hitting phenom Jesus Montero for Mariners' fireballer Miguel Pineda appears that the Yanks got the short end of the stick. If that's the worst thing we say about the Yankees' offseason moves, however, I think the Bronx Bombers will take it. Much like Detroit, however, the Yanks are plagued by uncertianty beyond their ace(in this case, C.C. Sabathia). Pineda is already on the D.L. and expected to miss at least a month with a shoulder injury. Even before going down, Pineda was struggling in his new digs during spring training. The other guys in the Yanks' rotation? Phil Hughes, whom the team once refused to give up for Johan Santana(along with Joba Chamberlain, who might never pitch in the Bronx again after breaking his ankle jumping on a trampoline), Hiroki Kuroda(signed away from L.A. after a ho-hum career with the Dodgers), Ivan Nova(sleeper pick for a breakout season), veteran Freddy Garcia(trade bait personified) and 100-year old Yankee lifer and comeback kid Andy Pettite. That's it. That's the list. The return of Pettite after a year of retirement is the most intriguing because, given the team's lack of proven arms, he has a legit chance of cracking the rotation and being servicable. Once Pineda comes back, either Garcia or Hughes will go to the bullpen where they belong and we'll spend the next three months wondering whom the Yankees will sell the farm for to improve the pitching staff. The bullpen isn't much better. Beyond having the greatest closer of all time in Mariano Rivera, the Yanks don't have much to protect the late inning leads. Dave Robertson? Meh. Rafael Soriano? Overrated. Boone Logan? Pass.
Lucky for New York, there's always that devastating lineup. The Yanks boast three potential MVP candidates in CF Curtis Granderson, 2B Robinson Cano, and 1B Mark Teixeira. Joining them are future Cooperstown occupants Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. The team also has speedy Brett Gardner to help set the table as well as former Dodgers All-Star Russell Martin at catcher. Martin made a slight comeback last year after being left for dead by L.A.. He's now the full-time guy behind the plate with Jorge Posada calling it a career.
Look, the Yankees are the Yankees so they'll always be in it thanks to an already-great roster and a never-ending supply of financial resources. Still, the rotation is a killer especially since the new Yankee Stadium is the equivalent of a Little League ballpark. Pineda needs to come back and justify the loss of a potential hit parade in Montero and somebody needs to step up out of the Nova/Hughes/Pettite/Garcia quadrant. Otherwise, the Yankees will find themselves in the familiar position of being on the outside looking in come World Series time....which is the only time that matters in the Big Apple.
2. Texas Rangers: In Texas' defense, losing C.J. Wilson isn't the first time they've lost their ace after losing the World Series. Cliff Lee abandoned the Lone Star State after 2010 and that didn't stop Texas from making it back to the Series. So, give Texas credit for not overpaying a borderline #2 starter for an impressive contract year. However, take all that credit away because they completely overpaid for Japanese import Yu Darvish. Darvish has looked like the real deal in spring training, even showing off a uncommon amount of swagger and arrogance on the mound. Still, Darvish is up against years of tradition when it comes to the lack of success Japanese pitchers have had when they come to America. Hideki Irabu? Flop. Kei Igawa? Bust. Kaz Ishii? Garbage. Daisuke Matsuzaka? Flamed out after one year. Japan hasn't given the majors a legit hurler since Hideo Nomo and even Nomo's peak didn't last long. Darvish could very well be the goods, but he's playing in an infamous hitter's park in an American League stocked with potent lineups. Good luck with that, Yu. Beyond Darvish, the only name that really jumps out is former reliever Neftali Feliz. Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland.....not exactly awe-inspiring stuff. The same goes for the bullpen. With last year's closer, Feliz, moved to the rotation, the team is attempting to fill his spot with former Twins All-Star closer Joe Nathan. Nathan was one of baseball's premier closers once upon a time but now he's 37 and coming off Tommy John surgery a couple years ago. To say he's a wild card would be putting it mildly.
Texas' saving grace, however, is the lineup. Led by 2010 MVP Josh Hamilton, the Rangers' lineup is deep, balanced and devastating. Nelson Cruz is a legit 40 homer threat if he can stay healthy. Adrian Beltre has made a career resurgence after flopping in Seattle. Micheal Young is always a threat for a batting crown. Elvis Andrus brings top notch speed at the top of the lineup and Mike Napoli might be the game's best offensive catcher. There's also All-Star 2B Ian Kinsler. That potent lineup has been able to make up for the rotation's lack of star power and it will have to work double time this year if Darvish and company flop. An AL team hasn't made it to three straight World Series since the heyday of the late 90's/early 2000's Yankees...and that team was a dynasty. The road back to the Series has gotten a little bit tougher thanks to the emergence of other rivals as serious contenders. The Rangers have managed to weather the storm the past two years but, this year, it looks like they have to survive a hurricane.
Wild Card winner: Yankees over Rangers - The bats even each other out and neither has a very strong bullpen but I'll take C.C. over any pitcher the Rangers can offer up even if Darvish turns out to be the Japanese Fernando Valenzuela. I think the Yankees outslug the Rangers and get revenge for 2010's ALCS.
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Tigers - He's been ignored the past few years either because he's been trumped by his own teammate's brilliance or other teams' greater success. The presence of Pujols and Fielder in the AL won't make things easier, nor will the fact that his defense would make Matt LeCroy look like Ozzie Smith but I think the numbers will be strong for Miggy with Prince backing him up. If anything, a Cabrera vs. Pujols MVP race will be something entertaining to watch late in the season when both men have the division locked down.
AL MVP Dark Horse: Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays - You could probably switch the two names here since Longo is just as capable of a monster season and is far better with the glove. Still, be it because he plays on a team that doesn't get much love or because he's been hurt the last couple years, Longoria gets ignored just as much, if not more, than Miggy when it comes to the voters. Longoria leads the pack of unheralded stars who will be looking to give MVP favorites like Pujols and Caberera a run for their money. Robinson Cano is another dark horse, as is Red Sox OF Jacoby Ellsbury if he continues his hot bat from last year and Boston doesn't collapse again. If the Rays end up being as good as I think they'll be, Longo will be in it at the end though.
AL Cy Young: Jared Weaver, P, Los Angeles Angels - Quite frankly, he's due. With Verlander unlikely to put on another record-breaking performance, Weaver's main competition comes from his own teammates and C.C. Sabathia in New York. I think Weaver replicates his year from last year and voters reward him for being overshadowed by Verlander last year.
AL Cy Young Dark Horse: Ubaldo Jiminez, Cleveland Indians - Lest we forget, Jiminez was an ace for a Rockies team that went to the World Series a couple years ago and Ubaldo finished third in the NL Cy Young race once upon a time. My backing of Jiminez ties in with what I'm going to write in the next paragraph, so I won't spoil it too much. Needless to say, Jiminez is a solid under-the-radar candidate in an American League that isn't very deep on elite pitchers. I don't think he'll steal the award but if he can do in Cleveland what he did with the Rockies, he might make the decision tougher for voters.
Biggest Surprise: Cleveland Indians - The White Sox and Twins, after years of dominating atop the Central, are on a downward spiral. Kansas City has taken over all of the hype as a potential up-and-coming team, and rightfully so, but don't sleep on the Tribe. The roster isn't flashy, as its filled with a bunch of guys you've never heard of and some veterans who haven't mattered in a while. Still, the Indians can make some noise. As mentioned before, Ubaldo Jiminez returns as the team's ace and he has a sneaky-good #2 in Justin Masterson as well as cagey vet Derek Lowe as the #3. Lowe was servicable the last few years in Atlanta and, at the very least, he's a sinker-baller who knows how to keep balls in the park and doesn't get lit up often. The lineup is a bit of a question mark, only because it's dependent on guys with durability concerns. Catcher Carlos Santana bounced back from a gruesome leg injury. He's capabale of putting up some big power numbers but needs to get his average up. DH Travis Hafner has a lethal bat, but he too, has had injury issues. Shin-Soo Choo is a potential 30-30 guy when healthy. Asdrubal Cabrera is coming off a 25 homer season and Jason Kipnis is a talented youngster on the rise. Laying in the weeds as well is Matt LaPorta, the former prized prospect of the Brewers dealt to Cleveland in the C.C. Sabathia trade.
The Indians are a couple years away from contention but with no proven #2 in the Central behind Detroit, they could at least make things interesting. If the lineup stays healthy and develops and Jiminez goes back to his dominant self, the Indians could be a team to watch for years to come.
Biggest Disappointment: Boston Red Sox - It's hard to say a team that already was such a huge flop last year can be the biggest disappointment this year but, when you factor in expectations, who else would you put here than a team with one of the biggest budgets in baseball that won't even finish better than 3rd in its own division(if that....Toronto is on the rise, too.). The team has already been hit hard with the injury bug. Closer Andrew Bailey, brought in by trade with Oakland to replace Jonathan Papelbon, will miss six-to-eight weeks with a thumb injury. Last year's prized signing-turned-big-money-flop Carl Crawford is already on the D.L. and there are questions as to whether Kevin Youkilis can bounce back after two injury-plagued years.
If there's a bright side in Beantown, it's that Adrian Gonzalez claims his troublesome shoulder is no longer troublesome and he feels the best he's felt in years. Jacoby Ellsbury is coming off a near 40-40 season and the team gets to see what heralded pitching phenom Daniel Bard can do in the rotation now. The Sox could be a threat if things bounce their way. The rotation is solid but inconsistant with Josh Beckett capable of being either a Cy Young threat or a guy who gives up eight runs in the first. Jon Lester has been an All-Star the last two years and you could do worse than Clay Bucholz as your #3. The injury to Bailey certianly hurts the bullpen but he was a risk to be counted on to stay healthy anyway. Someone always seems to emerge in Boston's 9th innings and that guy could be Alfredo Aceves. Still, Boston has to find a way to get through Tampa Bay and New York and with so much of last year's flop being blamed on now-departed Terry Francona and Theo Epstein, the pressure is on always-volatile new manager Bobby Valentine to right the ship. As it stands, he has his work cut out for him.
NLCS: Milwaukee over Miami in 6 - This will be an entertaining series with Miami's speed giving Milwaukee fits as Ozzie tries to win with small ball early on. Inevitably, Milwaukee's backs take over and the Brewers get the World Series appearence that has evaded them the last half decade.
ALCS: Tampa Bay over Los Angeles in 7 - Longoria vs. Pujols. Price vs. Weaver. Maddon vs. Scioscia. It doesn't have the flair of Yankees-Red Sox but it could end up being the AL's premier rivalry. I have a feeling about the Rays this year though. I think Desmond Jennings is going to have a breakout year. I think Longoria makes a run at the Triple Crown and, in turn, the MVP. I like the depth of this rotation and I think momentum is in their favor after last season's turnaround. As for the Angels, the pitching staff is killer but I just don't like the odds of guys like Wells or Hunter making plays when it matters. The American League will be repped by one of these two teams, and my money is on Tampa.
World Series: Tampa Bay over Milwaukee in 6 - In a World Series that will be largely ignored because it lacks the flash of the Yankees or the star power of an Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez, this becomes an entertaining series between two very good young teams. Much like the ALCS though, Tampa's depth in the rotation gives them the edge. When Matt Moore is your fifth starter, you have an advantage when the guy opposing him is someone named Chris Narveson. If you think Tampa winning it all is crazy, here's something even more far-fetched: Your World Series MVP......B.J. Upton.
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