2018 NFL Preview

The 2018 NFL season kicks off in just a few days, which means writers and “experts” from all over will serving up their takes on how the new campaign will go. Rather than clog this piece up with a proper preamble, let’s get right into predictions. 

Playoffs? 

AFC East: New England Patriots 

Why: Barring injuries, the Patriots walking away with yet another AFC East crown is the biggest lock of any of the 12 available playoff spots. Tom Brady and Co. have run roughshod over the division for nearly two decades and that task becomes easier when the opposing QBs are two rookies (Josh Allen of the Bills, Sam Darnold of the Jets) and a guy coming off a torn ACL (Miami’s Ryan Tannehill). Even at 41, Brady is still a Top-2 NFL QB and should put together another MVP caliber season with the whitest weapons the league has seen in a half century (RB Rex Burkhead, TE Rob Gronkowski, WRs Chris Hogan and Julien Edelman).

Cause for Concern: Dating back to the first Super Bowl loss to the New York Giants, the blueprint to stop the Patriots has been putting Brady under pressure and New England’s offensive line leaves much to be desired. Left tackle Nate Solder left in free agency and potential rookie replacement Isaiah Wynn is already done for the year with a torn Achilles. Brady has managed to side-step pass-rushes for years with a quick release and knowing when to get rid of the ball, but this is the worst offensive line he’s ever been behind and he’s not exactly mobile. 

Furthermore, a Pats defense that was shredded in last season’s Super Bowl didn’t add much beyond CB Jason McCourty, NT Danny Shelton and DE Adrian Clayborn. All three are decent role players but none should be mistaken for stars.

Bottom line: Even with potential red flags on the offensive line and on defense, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is crafty enough to navigate through a AFC East still in transition. As long as he and Brady can co-exist, they’re a guaranteed 10+ wins and a threat for the top seed in the AFC. The real challenge will come when they face teams that can actually fight back in the postseason. 

AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers

Why: Much like the Patriots in the East, this has more to do with a lack of in the rest of the division than any belief in the Steelers. Still, it’s hard to overlook what Pittsburgh has at its disposal on offense. RB Le’Veon Bell, if or when he ends his holdout, will resume his case for being the league’s top back and most versatile weapon. QB Ben Roethlisberger, even at 36, is still among the league’s better passers and he’ll have a dynamic duo in Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster to throw to. The offensive line, once a problem area, is now a position of strength thanks to guys like David DeCastro and Maurkice Pouncey. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley, who butted heads with his star QB and whose play-calling drove Steelers Nation crazy, is now in Cleveland and replaced by longtime assistant Randy Fichtner. 

Cause for Concern: This isn’t your father or grandfather’s Steel Curtain. Hell, this isn’t even your older brother’s Steel Curtain. The days of Blitzburgh wreaking havoc with names like Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Casey Hampton, etc are over. With rising star LB Ryan Shazier’s future still in question after a scary spinal injury, the linebacking core is a question mark and could affect the team’s ability to stop the run. The team did lead the league in sacks last year, thanks in large part to DE Cam Hayward’s 12, but it will be interesting to see if anyone besides Ironhead’s son steps up to keep that pass-rush dangerous. The secondary is also relying a lot on aging-but-still-solid corner Joe Haden and free agent acquisition Morgan Burnett. 

Bottom Line: The Steelers reign at the top of the North isn’t as assured as New England’s in the East. Baltimore is always ready for war with Pittsburgh. Cleveland has its best roster since returning to the league. Cincinnati is....well, Cincinnati is not a threat. 

Also, if you’re into superstitions or bad vibes, you help but think there’s a black cloud heading towards Pittsburgh. While waiting for a new deal, Le’Veon Bell has been working on his rap career and telling anyone who listens he’s done with the Steelers after this season. Antonio Brown is the latest target of the dreaded Madden Curse. Big Ben has talked retirement for the past two seasons. The defense, while formidable, isn’t very deep. The Steelers are balanced enough to be a contender, but there’s enough red flags to also make them a fall-off candidate. 

AFC South:  Jacksonville Jaguars 

Why: Over a decade of mediocrity allowed the Jags to finally turn all those high draft picks into a promising unit last season. Thanks to a stellar defense, the Jags took their first division title, smacked Pittsburgh in the mouth in the playoffs and were a couple plays away from the Super Bowl. RB Leonard Fournette didn’t have the rookie campaign many expected but still became the first Jacksonville 1,000 yard rusher since Maurice Jones-Drew due to sheer volume and the team’s commitment to smash mouth football. With G Andrew Norwell coming over from Carolina, the former LSU stud should improve upon last year’s 3.9 yards per carry. 

Jacksonville’s vaunted defense, led by mouthy star corner Jalen Ramsey and the deepest defensive line in football, returns mostly intact, save for the loss of retired LB Paul Posluzny and corner Aaron Colvin. They did add DT Taven Bryan, who drew comparisons to J.J. Watt, in the draft. This should continue to be the strength of a Jags team that won’t go away. 

Cause for Concern: Ummm....their starting QB is Blake Bortles. That’s it. That’s the list. This team is literally a competent QB away from owning the AFC. If you want to nitpick, a WR core that just lost Marquise Lee to a knee injury leaves much to be desired but it’s hard to really be a standout receiver with a QB who struggles to complete 60 percent of his throws. DeDe Westbrook, Keelan Cole and Donte Moncrief aren’t stars but they’re capable. Newly signed TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins has the tools, but can’t seem to stay out of trouble. 

Bottom Line: We’ve seen great defenses overcome shoddy QB play to win titles before: the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs, 2015 Broncos are recent examples. But none of those QBs were as bad as Bortles. There’s a reason the AFC has been run by guys like Brady, Manning and Roethlisberger for the last two decades. They know how to put points on the board. If Bortles can be even above average, the Jags could be champs, but there’s been nothing in the past five years to suggest he’ll live up to his potential. Still, the defense and run game are good enough to nab the division and make another postseason run. 

AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers

Why: QB Phillip Rivers has spent the last 14 years trying to keep up with 2004 draftmates Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger (two Super Bowl rings a piece) and this may be his best chance at joining the ranks as champion. Rivers will command an air-it-out offense that includes reception monster Keenan Allen, speedster Tyrell Williams and the aging-but-effective Antonio Gates. Last season’s first-round pick Mike Williams is also a breakout candidate after missing almost all of last year with a back injury. At 6’4, the former Clemson star gives Rivers another big option in the red zone, and if he can stay healthy, he can make good on his lost debut season. TE Hunter Henry went down early with a torn ACL, which necessitated bringing Gates back, but the Chargers are holding out hope he can be back by the playoffs. 

On the ground, Melvin Gordon shook off a tough rookie season and has developed into one of the league’s best backs. He’ll also run behind the best line of his career, bolstered by the acquisition of C Mike Pouncey and the return of G Forrest Lamp. 

Lastly, there’s Gus Bradley’s vaunted defense, led by the defensive line tag team champs: Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Bosa tallied nearly 100 tackles last season and he and Ingram combined for 23 sacks. Their presence creates havoc and makes life easier for Pro Bowl CB Casey Hayward and potential stud S Derwin James. 

Cause for Concern: We seem to go down this road every year with the Chargers. Every year, they look like Super Bowl contenders. Every year, injuries knock them back down to reality. Bad luck cost a franchise that should’ve been a dynasty with stars like Rivers, Gates, LaDainian Tomlinson, Shawne Merriman and Eric Weddle on its roster. 

This season has already taken its toll on the team. Henry went down almost as soon as OTAs started and CB Jason Verrett wasn’t far behind him. Henry might return. Verrett won’t and the Chargers don’t have a Hall of Famer like Gates to fill in for the latter. 

The run defense is also a concern, especially with DT Corey Liuget suspended for the first four games and a ho-hum linebacking core. The team was 31st against the run last season, giving up 131 yards per game, and there’s nothing to suggest that area will get exponentially better. 

Bottom Line: If the injury bug can quit feasting on the Chargers, this team can go places, but history makes it hard to ever fully trust them. The Chiefs, even with all of their off-season changes, will be nipping at their heels and the Broncos can’t be completely counted out after a good draft. 

The bright side is Rivers, even at 36, is one of the league’s most durable QB’s and his arm gives the Chargers a chance that luck refuses to hand them. 

Wild Card: Houston Texans

Why: Don’t look now, but the AFC South suddenly looks like the toughest division in football. The Jaguars are coming off a surprise trip to the AFC Championship. The Colts will finally have Andrew Luck back under center and the Titans are seemingly always the sexy preseason sleeper pick. 

Then, there’s the Texans, who have a ton of talent and even more bad luck.

On paper, a team with three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt, athletic pass-rushing dynamo Jadaveon Clowney, promising dual threat QB DeShaun Watson and star WR DeAndre Hopkins should be a Super Bowl contender. The team also added another playmaker on defense in S Tyrann “Honey Badger” Mathieu and will pair him with promising third-round rookie Justin Reid. 

However, Watt hasn’t been able to stay healthy for the past two seasons, Watson is coming off a torn ACL and Clowney hasn’t had that breakout season yet. 

Still, if the roster can stay healthy, the talent is there to give them the edge over the rest of the pack. 

Cause for Concern: As if pinning their hopes to the healthy returns of Watt and Watson wasn’t enough to put a pit in Houston’s stomach, the Texans will field the league’s worst offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus. The running game will be lead by Lamar Miller, who hasn’t really made his mark in Houston and will now find open holes hard to come by. 

The Texans also didn’t do much to build a contingency plan behind its injured stars. If Watson goes down again, the offense will be in the hands of Brandon Weeden. Yes, that Brandon Weeden. While the pressure to hold down the defensive fort will be on Clowney’s shoulders if injuries continue to derail Watt’s Hall of Fame career.

Bottom Line: If they can keep their stars healthy, Houston has just as much of a chance at a division title and playoff run as Jacksonville does. Watson was a shoe-in for ROY honors before blowing out his knee. If he can stay on the field, he’s a perennial Pro Bowler and possible MVP contender. Watt and Clowney are a nightmare to gameplan against, and LB Whitney Mercilus could join them on the list of guys who keep coaches up at night. Miller, while unspectacular, can be workmanlike if the line can give him room to run. Hopkins leads a receiving core that also contains deep threat Will Fuller, who developed a strong chemistry with Watson last season. 

The skids are greased for a Houston come-up, but one setback will knock them right back down the hill. 

Wild Card: Denver Broncos

Why: I had a really hard time with this one because you can talk yourself into a half dozen teams just as easily as you can talk yourself out of them. My belief in Denver is two-fold: 

First, while not a world-beater, Case Keenum is a serviceable starting QB (and if he’s not, I still really like Chad Kelly, nephew of Hall of Famer Jim Kelly). He was good enough to lead the Vikings to the NFC Championship last season (thanks to a great defense and bad tackling by New Orleans, but whatever), and I think it says something that Denver bypassed a QB-heavy draft to keep their faith in him. 

Second, I liked what Denver did on draft day. Bradley Chubb on the other side of Von Miller is going to be a problem for opposing passing games. Royce Freeman, Oregon’s all-time leading rusher, has shown flashes of greatness in the preseason and could breathe life back into the running game. WR Courtland Sutton is a Demaryius Thomas clone who will eventually replace the real Demaryius Thomas. The loss of CB Aqib Talib hurts but Chris Harris and Bradley Roby are a good duo who will benefit from QBs not having a ton of time to throw. 

Beyond that, Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are a solid 1-2 punch at WR and they’ll catch passes from a QB not named Tebow, Lynch or Siemien. 

Cause for Concern: As good as Denver’s draft looks on paper, it’s a gamble to trust anything John Elway has done on draft day. The team just cut Paxton Lynch, who was the latest in a litany of rookie busts during the Broncos legend’s reign. If any of those first three picks falter, that could spell doom for Denver.

Additionally, the Broncos’ offensive line is a work in progress. The decision to take Chubb over G Quentin Nelson made sense in April but could haunt them if the line continues to get bulldozed. Second-year OT Garret Bolles is coming off a season plagued by injuries and penalties. He’ll be protecting Keenum’s blind side. The rest of the line isn’t much to write home about. 

Speaking of Keenum, while I have faith in him, we’ve seen the clock strike midnight on these Cinderella stories before. Nick Foles bounced around the league for years before finding the glass slipper again in Philly last season. Same for guys like Matt Flynn, Matt Cassell, Ryan Fitzpatrick, etc. Keenum came out of nowhere for a reason. Nobody, including a QB-needy Rams team, believed in him. Maybe last year was the start of something bigger. Maybe it was a fluke. Time will tell. 

Bottom Line: The AFC is so top-heavy that it doesn’t really matter who you put in this spot because they’re basically making plans to be squashed by a division champ. Could it be Kansas City? Sure. Baltimore? Sure. Even Cleveland? Hey, crazier things have happened. 

If the Broncos can overcome their offensive line woes and Case Keenum (or Chad Kelly) can hold it down under center, Denver has a puncher’s chance of making it to the playoffs for the first time in the post-Peyton era. 

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles

Why: The East is basically a two-dog race between the defending champion Eagles and the resurgent New York Giants. Philly gets the nod because, despite injuries already threatening their title defense, the Eagles have the depth and balance to remain a force. 

On defense, the league’s best run defense added aging-but-still-huge AF DT Haloti Ngata. He’ll join a interior led by two-time All-Pro Fletcher Cox. Meanwhile, an already-deep DE rotation of Brandon Graham, Derek Barnett and Chris Long added Michael Bennett from Seattle and talented rookie Josh Sweat from Florida State. They’ll make up for a linebacking crew decimated by injuries (Paul Worrilow) and departures (The now- arrested Mychal Kendricks). 

Offensively, the team isn’t sure if Carson Wentz, who blew out his knee late last season, will be ready for the season opener against Atlanta but he’s not too far from a return. If he can’t go, Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles waits in the wings.  Either QB will have the benefit of playing behind a stout offensive line and RB Jay Ajayi, playing for a new contract next spring, running the ball. 

Cause for Concern: In addition to the uncertainty surrounding Wentz and the loss of Worrilow just days after cutting Kendricks, WR Alshon Jeffrey is also dealing with knee troubles that threatens the start of his season. If he can’t go, the team will forced to rely on Nelson Agholor, Mike Wallace and Zach Ertz to keep the air game formidable. The secondary also took a few hits with the losses of Corey Graham and Pat Robinson. The hope is second-year corner Sidney Jones can bounce back from a torn Achilles. Middle linebacker Jordan Hicks is also coming back from an Achilles injury and his health is key with the lack of talent around him. 

Bottom Line: Carson Wentz was the MVP before tearing his ACL, so if he returns to form early, another division title is Philly’s to lose. The early injuries are troubling but the Eagles proved last season they can overcome adversity. The talent is there. The depth is there. And the monkey of never winning a Super Bowl is off their back. The Giants will give Philly a fight but it’s hard to not like their chances. 

NFC North: Minnesota Vikings 

Why: A defensive unit that was second against both the pass and run while leading the league in points allowed added DT Sheldon Richardson, S George Iloka and first-round CB Mike Hughes. An offense that already had a pair of playmaking WRs in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen as well as Pro Bowl TE Kyle Rudolph gets Dalvin Cook back and QB Kirk Cousins to throw the ball. It’s worth noting this team made the NFC Championship with Case Keenum. 

The division is going to be tougher this year with Aaron Rodgers’ return in Green Bay, Chicago’s offseason improvements and Detroit’s underrated offense but the Vikes went 5-1 against these guys last year with a weaker roster. 

If Cousins can prove to be more than the garbage time stat-padded he was in Washington, Minnesota could be this season’s Philadelphia. 

Cause for Concern: We’ll get to the risk of putting championship hopes in Cousins’ hands in a second. Let’s start with Minnesota’s offensive line, which is terrible and already dealing with injuries to guard Nick Easton and Mike Rimmers as well as center Pat Efflein. Without protection up front, it doesn’t matter if the QB is Kirk Cousins, Kurt Warner or Kirk Douglas, this offense is going to be trouble. The offensive line woes are especially troubling for Cook, who was off to a great rookie campaign before blowing out his knee in Week 4. The Vikings are taking it slow with their dynamic running back, mixing in veteran Latavius Murray when the mood strikes, but the issue remains the same. If you can’t keep the defense at bay, you’re not going to score. You don’t score, you don’t win. 

Now, on to Cousins. The former Michigan State star rose to glory in the wake of Robert Griffin III’s downward spiral and became the Redskins’ best passer in decades. None of that meant much in the standings though. Washington still struggled to make the postseason, and when they did, Cousins couldn’t get them over the hump. Cousins isn’t totally to blame for those shortcomings but there’s huge risk involved in making a $84 million investment in a guy with inflated stats who hasn’t proven to be a winner. That issue becomes even larger when you can’t protect him. With so much offensive line talent in the draft, it’s interesting Minnesota opted for a third corner over someone who can keep their high-priced gunslinger upright. 

Bottom Line: As we saw with Jacksonville last season, a great defense can carry even the most anemic of offenses. Minnesota won’t be quite as bad as the Jaguars but the offensive line tempers any expectations of grandeur despite the talent at the skill positions. 

If the offensive line isn’t a walking turnstile, the Vikings are a legitimate title threat, regardless of Cousins’ lack of success or Cook’s shaky knee. 

NFC South: New Orleans Saints 

Why: Left for dead after it seemed Drew Brees lost a step and the defense lacked talent, the Saints surprised everyone thanks to a great draft and great coaching. CB Marshon Lattimore and RB Alvin Kamara both earned ROTY honors on their respective sides of the ball, while the Saints’ bend-but-don’t break defense was a missed tackle away from the NFC championship. 

Fortunately, the Saints didn’t rest on their “What could’ve been” laurels. They added Patrick Robinson, Demario Davis and Kurt Coleman in free agency and made a big move in the draft to take small-school standout Marcus Davenport in the first round. Offensively, Mark Ingram’s four-game suspension means The Alvin Kamara show will run unopposed for the first month of the year and the electric playmaker will look to build on last year’s highlight reel. WR Michae Thomas will get help in the form of third-round rookie Tre’Quan Smith and Bears castoff Cameron Meredith, who missed all of last season with a knee injury. 

At 39, Brees’ deep ball may not be what it once but he can still move the chains with the best of them. If the team continues to improve on both sides, this could be one hell of a swan song for the future Hall of Famer. 

Cause for Concern: There aren’t many red flags in the Bayou unless you’re overly concerned that Brees will take a step back or a defense with very few big names doesn’t develop. After cutting Jonathan Williams and Terrence West, the Saints put all of their eggs in Kamara’s basket for the first four games, which is a risk considering he’s never handled a full workload before. 

The team also gave up next year’s first round pick on the hope that Davenport, who made a name for himself at UTEP, is more DeMarcus Ware than Vernon Gholston. If he doesn’t pan out, that’s a lot of draft capital down the drain. 

Bottom Line: The Saints didn’t have a sexy offseason like the other NFC contender. They didn’t shake things up with a bunch of big acquisitions like the Rams. They didn’t sign a QB to big money like Minnesota or even Green Bay (with the Rodgers extension). Beyond the trade up for Davenport, there wasn’t a lot of flash to a team that might flying under the radar a little.

In the end, this offense can win any shootout. It’s up to the defense to not get caught with their hands on their hips again. 

NFC West: Los Angeles Rams

Why: Throwing a bunch of big names on a roster and expecting a Lombardi Trophy rarely works out in the NFL. It didn’t work out for the Redskins in the early part of the Dan Snyder era. It didn’t work out for the “Dream Team” Eagles. It might not work out for this season’s Rams.

That torrid history didn’t stop Los Angeles from having an offseason for the ages. 

Robert Quinn, Tavon Austin, Trumaine Johnson, Alec Ogletree, Sammy Watkins, Connor Barwin: out.

 

Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, Brandin Cooks: in.

The team also secured its long-term future with extensions for Cooks, star RB Todd Gurley, reigning Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald and guard Rob Havenstein. That doesn’t include the presence of former No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff, who took a huge step forward in his first season under Sean McVay, as well as trusty weapons Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. 

The Rams have the stars to match its Hollywood home. It’s just up to McVay (and more importantly, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips) to keep egos in check. 

Cause for Concern: All of the Rams come with their share of baggage. Suh is considered one of the dirtiest, if not the dirtiest, players in the game and he has the suspensions/fines to prove it. The Chiefs were all too willing to get rid of Peters three years after winning Rookie of the Year due to maturity issues. Talib is well-traveled for a reason, despite being a big contributor for some solid defensive units. Cooks is on his third team in as many years. 

That becomes moot if the coaching staff gets everyone on the same page. If they can’t, the team created a reality show instead of a championship contender. 

Bottom Line: It’s hard to look at this roster and not think they have everything you want in a champion. After moonlighting as a checkdown artist under Jeff Fisher, Goff looked like a stud last season to the tune of 3800 yards, 28TDs and only seven interceptions. Gurley should’ve won MVP last year after carrying the Rams to a surprise playoff berth. The defense doesn’t seem to have a weakness and the receiving core is deep. 

However, I’m ready to believe a team of high-priced mercenaries can win it all when it actually happens. 

Wild Card: Green Bay Packers 

Why: Three words: Aaron Charles Rodgers. After missing almost all of last season with a broken collarbone, No. 12 is back with a new $134 million contract and a huge chip on his reattached shoulder. If he’s healthy for 16 games, the Packers are a playoff team and a contender. Every thing else falling into place is a bonus. 

As for everything else, the Packers were surprisingly aggressive in the offseason. Longtime Rodgers favorite Jordy Nelson is gone. Red zone menace Jimmy Graham is in. The team invested three picks in its receiving core, J’Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown, which is a strategy they implanted at RB the year before and wound up with potential starters in Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Green Bay also found time on draft day to invest in their secondary with a pair of talented corners: Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson. Both were considered the best corners in the draft not named Denzel Ward or Minkah Fitzpatrick. 

The team also reunited DE Muhammad Wilkerson with former DC Mike Pettine in an attempt to bolster a run defense now without LB Jake Ryan.

Cause for Concern: Beyond Rodgers, there’s a lot of question marks. Can Pettine fix a defense that was an Achilles heel for the last half-decade under Dom Capers? Can the offensive line, suddenly a strength but still iffy, keep Rodgers from taking another bad hit? Can a young secondary grow up fast? 

The wideouts, a staple in Green Bay since the Brett Favre era, are suddenly a red flag. Davante Adams is coming off his first big year and is now the No. 1. Randall Cobb is a potential salary cap casualty. The rest are either unheralded or rookies. 

A lot of things need to bounce Green Bay’s way for Rodgers to win another ring, and that’s something that hasn’t happened in quite some time. 

Bottom Line: Despite the freezing temperatures in Green Bay, the seats are especially hot underneath Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy. Rodgers is somehow both the league’s best QB and the owner of a 5-6 playoff record since his first SB win while McCarthy has failed to capitalize off Packers teams more talented than this one. For Green Bay to compete in a suddenly deep NFC, McCarthy will have to get the youngsters to develop. Fast. 

If he can’t, the Packers may need to find someone else who can while Rodgers is still in his prime. 

Wild Card: New York Giants 

Why: This was a toss-up between New York and Atlanta, but it’s tough to overlook what Big Blue did this offseason. They added Saquon Barkley, considered the best RB prospect in a quarter century, to an offense that already has Odell Beckham Jr., Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard. Nate Solder and rookie Will Hernandez were brought in to fix an offensive line that was getting Eli Manning trounced. Even with Eli on the downside of his career, a supporting cast of 20-somethings should help him navigate through a division with only one real contender (Philadelphia).

Cause for Concern: The Giants did well to help their offensive woes but the defense remains in transition. The team switched to a 3-4 set and shipped top pass-rusher and fireworks guru Jason Pierre-Paul to Tampa Bay. They added Alec Ogletree from the Rams and Lorenzo Carter in the draft but they’ll need more than that to fend off the high-octane offenses in the NFC. CB Eli Apple, coming off a strange 2017 campaign, might be this team’s X-Factor on D. 

Bottom Line: Despite coming off a 3-13 season, all eyes will be on Big Blue this season. Barkley will need to prove New York did right by taking him over a potential franchise QB. OBJ has a new $95 million extension to live up to. Manning, coming off declining numbers in back-to-back years and the first benching of his career last season, will have to turn back the clock. The defense will have to keep up with its star-studded counterparts. 

The NFC will have plenty of contenders for this spot, so it’s up to the Giants to make those offseason changes pay off. 

The Award Section

Coach of the Year: Sean McVay, Rams - On paper, the Rams are the best team in the NFC and possibly the NFL. If he can get his big-named roster to live up to the hype, this honor is his to lose. 

Dark Horse: Matt Nagy, Bears - After the trade for All-Pro pass rusher Khalil Mack, Chicago’s Super Bowl odds improved from 100-1 to 40-1 and there was already enough sleeper buzz after a busy offseason. A championship season with so many parts still moving seems unlikely, but if Nagy can get this team to respectability, that’s a big enough leap to earn some love. 

Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers - This might be unfair since A-Rod was able to come back late last season before being shelved in the final two weeks when Green Bay’s season went into the tank. He still missed 10 games last year, and if he’s healthy in 2018, he’s a mortal lock to improve on what might have been MVP numbers in ‘17 (1,675 yards, 16 TDs and 6 INTs). 

Dark Horse: David Johnson, RB, Cardinals - Johnson’s 2017 campaign ended before it really got started, succumbing to a wrist injury 11 carries into Week 1. DJ has mentioned in years past his goal is to notch 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving. If he even gets close, it might not matter what Rodgers or anyone else on the mend does. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants - Best RB prospect of the 25 years? Let’s see it. 

Dark Horse: Sam Darnold, QB, Jets - Gang Green hasn’t had a real QB in nearly a decade and he’s the only one of a stacked class of signal callers who will draw a Week 1 starting nod. Denver’s Royce Freeman is also someone to watch. 

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Bradley Chubb, DE, Broncos - Best pass rusher in the draft and he’ll have Von Miller on the other end taking pressure off him. 

Dark Horse: Derwin James, S, Chargers - He’ll play the Kam Chancellor role for Gus Bradley’s defense and he’s already shown in the preseason that he’s the goods. 

Offensive Player of the Year: Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints - This award basically exists because voters hate giving the MVP to non-QBs. Kamara has the backfield to himself while Mark Ingram is on suspension for the first month and that might be enough to distance himself from the rest of the field. 

Dark Horse: Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers - To me, the Madden Curse is the only thing keeping him from being the favorite. 

Defensive Player of the Year: Joey Bosa, DE, Chargers - You can talk yourself into any number of pass rushers: Miller, Mack, Donald, Watt. Bosa seems to get better every year and defensive ends who flirt with 100 tackles and double-digit sacks deserve some hardware. 

Dark Horse: Jalen Ramsey, CB, Jaguars - The best corner in the game spent the summer talking a big game. If QBs are brave enough to throw his way, he has a puncher’s chance as the best player on the best defense in football. 

MVP: Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans - Wentz and Rodgers are the Vegas favorites, but the preseason leaders in the clubhouse haven’t won the past few years (except for Brady, who benefitted from Wentz’s injury and voters ignoring Gurley). Watson may be more of a dark horse, but he has all the tools to impress voters. 

Dark Horse: Jared Goff, QB, Rams - He made such a leap last season, and if the guy picked after him can be a MVP candidate, why can’t Goff make a run? 

Who’s Going To Atlanta?

NFC Championship: Saints over Rams - Experience over youthful exuberance. 

AFC Championship: Chargers over Steelers - Another lengthy postseason run will help Bell secure the bag he desires, but the Chargers’ opportunistic defense should be too much for the Steel Curtain. 

Super Bowl LIII: Chargers over Saints - Tons of storylines here. Rivers vs Brees. Rivers’ quest for his first ring. Brees vs the team that replaced him and a possible farewell tour. 

This is the best Chargers team we’ve seen since LT retired and it’s hard not to root for Rivers here. Give me L.A’s balance over New Orleans’ efficiency. 

2018 NFL Mock Draft

Let’s skip the preamble and get right to it.

1. Cleveland Browns: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming 

The latest out of Cleveland is this pick is down to Allen and Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, which means the Browns are probably taking USC’s Sam Darnold. GM John Dorsey has done a superb job of keeping where he’s leaning under wraps and we might not even know who he’s taking under Roger Goodell takes the stand.

As of this writing, I’m rolling with Allen, even though the smart money is on Darnold. He’s big (6’5, 237lbs), athletic and has the strongest arm in the draft, which is typically what Dorsey and OC Todd Haley prefers. I’m also not ready to completely rule out Mayfield, who gained momentum in recent weeks.

2. New York Giants: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

This is a no-brainer to me. The Giants haven’t had a franchise running back since Tiki Barber retired 12 years ago and Barkley is being described as the best rushing prospect of the last 25 years. Yes, a QB to groom behind 37-year-old Eli Manning would be nice. Yes, Big Blue has a hole at defensive end that could be filled by North Carolina State’s Bradley Chubb.

However, the possibility of an offensive nucleus of Barkley, Odell Beckham Jr, Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard (all 25 or younger) is too good to pass up.

3. New York Jets (via IND) : Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma 

Mayfield over Donald? Seems crazy, right? Maybe not. Mayfield is the most accurate QB in this draft, and despite his lack of ideal height (just a shade over six feet tall) and personality issues (he’s one cocky MFer), he doesn’t come with as many warts as Darnold, who was turnover-prone at SC and needs to work on mechanics/footwork.

“Broadway Baker” is a great fit for new OC Jeremy Bates’ scheme and his brash attitude will go over well in the surly tri-state area. 

4. Cleveland Browns (via HOU): Bradley Chubb, DE, North Carolina State

The Browns will likely field calls from QB-needy teams regardless of which prospects are on the board. If they stay put, Chubb makes the most sense as a bookend pass-rusher to pair with last year’s No. 1 pick Myles Garrett. Chubb’s pass-rushing ability is what will draw the most attention but he’s stout against the run as well.

TRADE!

The Buffalo Bills send the No. 12 pick, a second-round pick (No. 53 overall) and a 2019 first-rounder to the Denver Broncos for the No. 5 overall pick

We have our first of many trades in this mock. The Bills desperately need a QB, and armed with five picks in the first three rounds, they have the ammo to move up. Broncos GM John Elway expresses interest in moving down, and being able to secure a potential top-5 pick next year to drop seven spots is a nice haul. 

5. Buffalo Bills (via DEN): Sam Darnold, QB, USC

With A.J. McCarron and Nathan Peterman leading the depth chart, the Bills can’t afford to sit back and wait for a QB to come to them. Regardless of who is still on the board, I fully expect Buffalo to get aggressive in their pursuit of the next Jim Kelly.

At just 20 years old, Darnold is the youngest QB to go in the first round since Alex Smith in 2005. There are some technical kinks that need to be worked out before he’s pro-ready but Buffalo has enough safeguards in place to bring him along slowly.

6. Indianapolis Colts (via NYJ): Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia 

The Colts took advantage of the Jets’ desperation for a new QB months ago by striking a deal to move down three spots in exchange for three second-round picks. Now, they’ll benefit even further from the signal caller frenzy by grabbing whatever top-tier defensive talent falls to them.

Smith is a classic sideline-to-sideline inside linebacker who has drawn comparisons to guys like Ray Lewis, Jon Vilma and Luke Kuechly. Whether he’s on par with those greats remains to be seen, but the Colts, who finished near the bottom in almost every defensive catagory, could certainly use his help up the middle.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Derwin James, S, Florida State 

In a perfect world, Saquon Barkley falls to Tampa and fixes their long-standing need for a running game. In reality, the Bucs will choose between addressing their secondary with either James, Denzel Ward or Minkah Fitzpatrick or solidify a weak offensive line with stellar guard Quentin Nelson. 

James gets the call here because he doesn’t have Ward’s size concerns and, while he can play all over the defensive backfield, he has a more defined position than the versatile Fitzpatrick. James had some injuries at Florida State but teams are starting to come around on any durability concerns.

8. Chicago Bears: Quentin Nelson, G, Notre Dame

The Bears let Josh Sitton walk while their other starter, Kyle Long, is on the mend from offseason neck surgery. With young QB Mitch Trubisky still developing and the running game looking to bounce back after a down year, landing a road grader like Nelson to stabalize the offensive line is paramount.

Nelson is considered one of the safest and cleanest prospects in the draft. He’s been compared to Hall of Famer Larry Allen, arguably the greatest guard to ever take the field. That’s pretty heavy praise, but if Nelson can live up to the hype, he can be the kind of building block that helps the Bears turn things around.

9. San Francisco 49ers: Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama 

With Reuben Foster dodging a bullet by having offseason domestic abuse charges dropped, linebacker isn’t as big of a need as it once was. The Niners could still look at Virginia Tech’s Tremaine Edwards as both a safety net if Foster steps out of line and as a potential partner inside.

For now, Fitzpatrick gets the call. Safety Eric Reid doesn’t appear likely to return and the secondary doesn’t have much beyond free-agent acquisition Richard Sherman, who is 30 years old and coming off an Achilles injury. Fitzpatrick is like a bigger Tyron Mathieu, a defensive Swiss Army knife who just knows how to make plays. Whether he lines up in the slot, in the box or out deep, he’s sure to find a home in the Bay Area. 

TRADE! 

The Arizona Cardinals send No. 15 overall, a third-round pick (No.79) and a 2019 third-round pick to the Oakland Raiders for No. 10 overall pick

Upon first glance, this seems like a steep price to move up five spots but top-10 slots that lead to franchise QBs have a hefty cost. With Miami looming at No.11, the Cardinals strike now to get their guy. The Raiders, filled with holes that one player can’t fill by his lonesome, gladly oblige. 

10. Arizona Cardinals (from OAK): Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

Despite being heralded as the most technically sound QB in this draft, Josh Rosen seems the most likely of the Big Four QBs to fall. Questions about his durability (concussions/shoulder issues in college), attitude (known to be outspoken) and commitment to football (he’s not hurting for money) have all been listed as red flags. 

The Cardinals can’t afford to be picky. Injury-prone Sam Bradford and mediocrity-prone Mike Glennon are the team’s top two QBs and neither can be considered long-term answers. If Rosen (or any of the big four) slide to the bottom of the top 10, Arizona needs to move fast to catch him.

11. Miami Dolphins: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

The Dolphins could use a quarterback but I don’t think they’ll move up for one. Yes, Ryan Tannehill will be 30 in July and is coming off his second ACL tear since December 2016, but I think he gets another chance to resuscitate his career.

The defense, however, doesn’t have the same luxury. A 6’5”, 250-pound athletic freak, Edmunds was a finalist for the Butkus award as a 19-year-old junior. With last year’s second-round pick Raekwon McMillan returning from a torn ACL, the Dolphins would have two young LBs to go along with offseason acquisition Robert Quinn. Ohio State corner Denzel Wars is another option.

12. Denver Broncos (via BUF): Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

This would be a dream scenario for the Broncos. After trading Aqib Talib to the Rams, Denver needs another corner to fill his spot and Ward is considered the best of a deep rookie crop. 

At 5’11” and 190 pounds, Ward lacks ideal height but he makes up for it with elite speed and agility. He also comes from a pro factory at Ohio State which produced quality corners such as reigning DROY Marshon Lattimore. If Ward doesn’t fall in Denver’s lap, a pass-rusher or another body for the offensive line would be the next best thing.

13. Washington Redskins: Vita Vea, DT, Washington 

DraftAnalyst.com’s Tony Pauline calls Vita Vea-to-Washington “the NFL’s worst-kept secret”. Why would it be? The Skins haven’t had an interior presence on the defensive line in years and Vea is a monster of a man inside. 

Standing 6’4”, 350 pounds with uncanny quickness and insane strength, Vea draws comparisons to Pro Bowl DT Haloti Ngata. Worst-case scenario, he clogs the middle and helps an ailing run defense. Best-case scenario, he shows some pass-rushing chops while teaming with Jonathan Allen to wreak havoc on opposing QBs.

14. Green Bay Packers: Harold Landry, DE/LB, Boston College 

The Packers haven’t picked this high since 2009, when they took BJ Raji at No. 10 then moved back up in round one to take Clay Matthews. Coincidentally, Green Bay is rumored to be interested in trading up again this time around. 

If they stay put, the team will almost certainly address a defensive unit that’s become a weak link over the last few years. Harold Landry might be the most natural pass-rusher in the draft and he would help Green Bay make a seamless transition away from the aging Matthews. Marcus Davenport, who is athletically gifted but raw, is another option as is defensive back.

15. Oakland Raiders (from ARZ): Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA

The Raiders have needs all across their defense but the offensive line could quickly become a priority. Left tackle Donald Penn is 35 years old and the right side is a mess. The team is rumored to be smitten with Miller, who has a connection with offensive line coach Tom Cable. 

A 6’8”, 310-pound behemoth, Miller could start on the right side before replacing Penn when Father Time finally comes for him.

16. Baltimore Ravens: Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA

Marcus Davenport is one of the more interesting prospects in this draft. He’s huge (6’7, 255), athletic (dominated the combine) and draws comparisons to future Hall of Famer Demarcus Ware. However, like Ware, he’s a small school standout who didn’t battle much elite competition. 

The Ravens addressed their wide receiver needs with the additions of Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead, but could still take a young pass catcher here. Tight end, offensive tackle and even quarterback (Joe Flacco is 33 and hasn’t been productive in years) might also get a look.

17. Los Angeles Chargers: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

The Chargers have needs at defensive tackle, inside linebacker and safety, all of which have key prospects available here. They might also look for Phillip Rivers’ successor while they have a chance.

However, with Rivers still under center, it’s important that the team keeps him upright. McGlinchey doesn’t have Kolton Miller’s athletic profile and he struggled at times against speed rushers but he’s a steady tackle who could prove to be a solid starter. 

TRADE!

Jacksonville Jaguars trade No. 29 overall, their second-round pick (No. 61 overall) and a 2019 first-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks for No. 18 overall.

This trade makes a ton of sense for both teams, which means it absolutely won’t happen. The Seahawks are rebuilding but wouldn’t pick again until round 4 unless they trade down. The Jags, meanwhile, are a QB away from being a perennial title contender and there happens to be a pretty good one available.

18. Jacksonville Jaguars (via BAL): Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville 

The Jaguars could’ve made the Super Bowl last season had it not brought Blake Bortles to a shootout with Tom Brady. Bortles got a new extension but it doesn’t guarantee him a future in Jacksonville unless he improves significantly.

By moving up for Jackson, the Jaguars at least hedge their bets on their QB quandary. He needs time to develop as a natural passer but he has all the tools to be great and his ability as a runner could get him on the field early in select packages. Plus, is there better marketing than the Jacksonville Jaguars having a guy named Jackson as its starting QB?

19. Dallas Cowboys: Leighton Vanden Esch, LB, Boise State

The Cowboys had a huge need at wideout even before Dez Bryant paid the iron price and was shipped out of town. So, you can’t rule out Dallas taking the first receiver off the board here.

However, Dallas’ defense is still a work in progress and there are reports that some inside the Cowboys’ front office liken Vanden Esch to Bears legend Brian Urlacher. Vanden Esch was wildly productive at Boise State but concerns over his neck may cause him to slide and has already scared off a few teams. If Dallas gets cold feet, anyone from the DJ Moore/Calvin Ridley/Courtland Sutton receiver tree would suffice.

20. Detroit Lions: Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama 

The Lions should hope Harold Landry or Marcus Davenport drop to both pair with star defensive end Ezekiel Ansah and/or replace him if a long-term deal can’t be worked out.

Since that isn’t happening in this mock, Motown does the next best thing and lands a high-motor defensive tackle for the Motor City. The Lions haven’t had an interior presence since cutting Ndomakong Suh loose, and with Haloti Ngata also gone, they need someone who could cause disruption inside. That’s Payne’s forte.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (via BUF): Frank Ragnow, C, Arkansas 

Even after adding left tackle Cordy Glenn in the trade-down with the Bills, the Bengals’ offensive line rebuild isn’t over. The team still has a huge need on the interior, which is why landing the versatile Frank Ragnow makes sense. 

Ragnow played guard and center at Arkansas and his ability to play all three inside spots is helping climb up draft boards. Cincy could still use help in their defensive front seven and at receiver, but addressing the o-line should be mission one.

22. Buffalo Bills: James Daniels, C, Iowa

The Bills want to move up in the draft without giving up this pick and with good reason. With so many offensive linemen being pushed down the board thanks to the QB and the Bills having holes at tackle and center, it’s important that Buffalo finds a way to land its franchise QB without sacrificing a chance at getting him some protection.

Like Ragnow, Daniels can play guard or center, which comes in handy for Buffalo following Eric Wood’s retirement. Daniels comes from a school known for producing quality offensive linemen and he’s the kind of rugged mauler who can handle the snowy weather in a western New York.

23. New England Patriots (via LAR): Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama 

The Patriots’ undoing last season was a defensive unit that fell apart at the seams due to injuries and a lack of depth. Those concerns only grew bigger after the departure of CB Malcolm Butler. That’s why, despite a need for offensive line help and a desire to find a new QB, New England needs to find some defensive playmakers in this draft. 

Evans can team with and eventually replace the declining Jerrod Mayo to give the Pats a presence inside. He’s a tackling machine with the added ability to get after the passer in the right scheme. He could be the start of New England’s defensive rebuild.

24. Carolina Panthers: Will Hernandez, G, UTEP

Ideally, the Panthers would want either Daniels or Ragnow to fall to them. The team lost guard Andrew Norwell in free agency and aging center Ryan Kalil is set retire after this season. 

With both gone, the Panthers turn to Hernandez, who is an old school bulldozer that will help open lanes for dynamic back Christian McCafferey and keep Cam Newton from running for his life. Cornerback, wife receiver and tight end are other areas of need, as well.

25. Tennessee Titans: Lorenzo Carter, LB, Georgia 

Smart money is on Tennessee moving out of this spot. They need a pass-rusher and a linebacker but all four of the elite prospects at those positions will likely be gone when they get on the clock. 

While a slight reach here, the 6’6” 243-pound Carter fills the Titans’ need for a linebacker who can get after the quarterback. The team has also been linked to DE Sam Hubbard, who shares Ohio State roots with new head coach Mike Vrabel. Either prospect is still a possibility even if the team trades back.

26. Atlanta Falcons: Taven Bryan, DT, Florida 

Taven Bryan is a name that could come off the board sooner than some expect. He’s a hustler with a lightning-quick first step but he was just a one-year starter for the Gators, so he’s still a bit raw.

Some scouts see him as potentially the next J.J. Watt based on his athletic ability and work ethic. However, he’s going to need to pick up things fast to be on par with the three-time DPOY. Regardless, he’s an interior presence to go along with pass-rushing dynamos Vic Beasley and Tak McKinley.

TRADE! 

The Cleveland Browns trade No. 35 and No. 64 (both second-round picks) to the New Orleans Saints for No. 27 overall.

With few needs and no second-round pick, the Saints opt to move out of the first round in exchange for a eight-spot drop. If New Orleans stays, there’s a good chance they take a tight end like Hayden Hurst or Mike Gesicki. 

The bottom of the first round is where you may see teams with a surplus of Day 2 picks (like Cleveland) move up in order to get a prospect they like so they can sign them for an extra year. 

27. Cleveland Browns (via NO): Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa 

With so many teams in the bottom third of the first round looking for a corner, the Browns choose not to wait and move to grab one of the draft’s best ball hawks. 

Jackson’s stock dropped a bit due to a subpar 40 time (believed to be the 4.5 range), but you can’t put a stopwatch on instincts or his knack for getting his hands on the football. Jackson snatched eight interceptions as a junior last season, and while the Browns addressed the secondary a bit in the offseason, adding another young playmaker can’t hurt.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers: Justin Reid, S, Stanford

If Vanden Esch or Evans don’t drop to Pittsburgh, this becomes an interesting spot for the Steelers. Do they find Ben Roethlisberger‘s heir apparent in Mason Rudolph here? Do they go running back in light of Le’Veon Bell’s contract issues? Corner? Defensive line? There are no wrong answers.

Even after signing Morgon Burnett away from the Packers, the Steelers could still use safety help. Reid is a name being passed around as a late first-round pick after a solid junior season. 

29. Seattle Seahawks (via JAX): Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville 

Other than quarterback, there isn’t a position that doesn’t need to be addressed here. The Seahawks spent the offseason riding themselves of nearly every big name on the roster. Richard Sherman? Gone. Michael Bennett? Gone. Jimmy Graham? Gone.  Kam Chancellor? May never play again. Earl Thomas? On the trading block. 

The main area of need is on the offensive line, which means someone like Georgia’s Isaiah Wynn or even Texas’ Connor Williams is possible. In this case, Seattle goes for the best defender available and hopes Alexander could be the start of the next Legion of Boom.

TRADE! 

The Indianapolis Colts trade a second-round pick (No. 36 overall) and a fifth-round pick (No. 140) to the Minnesota Vikings for No. 30 overall

With the top linemen on both sides of the ball taken, Minnesota opts to bow out of the first round and let the Colts add to the roster. Indy could probably stay put and hope to address more needs on Day 2, but the second round could see a run on skill position players and the Colts might be left grasping at straws.

30. Indianapolis Colts (via MIN): DJ Moore, WR, Maryland 

I was torn between taking the first receiver or going running back. Both are big needs for a Colts offense looking to get its groove back with a (hopefully) healthy Andrew Luck. 

Moore is gaining momentum as the draft’s top wideout. He’s not as good of a route runner as Calvin Ridley or as big as Courtland Sutton but he’s got speed and is dangerous after the catch. With Donte Moncrief gone, the Colts could use another weapon opposite T.Y. Hilton and Moore is a solid #2.

31. New England Patriots: Isaiah Wynn, G, Georgia 

The Patriots are a mortal lock to use one of its first four picks on a QB to eventually replace soon-to-be-41-year-old Tom Brady and this would be a good spot for Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph.

However, as long as TB12 is in a Patriots uniform, New England is a contender and the priority shifts to adding pieces that will help the team win now. After losing left tackle Nate Solder in free agency, finding someone who can protect Brady is important. Wynn played tackle in college but may be better suited at guard. Regardless of where he lines up, he’s a plug-and-play starter for a team in desperate need of talent.

TRADE! 

The Denver Broncos trade a second-round pick (No. 40 overall), a fourth-round pick (No. 105 overall) and a fifth-round pick (No. 154 overall) to the Philadelphia Eagles for No. 32 overall

With no second or third-round pick, the Eagles are reportedly desperate to move out of the first round in order to secure more picks. The Broncos, having landed more picks in their own move downward earlier in the draft, use their surplus of Day 3 picks to get back into the opening salvo.

32. Denver Broncos (from PHI): Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

Yes, there are plenty of RBs that could’ve fell to Denver had they not moved up but let’s look at them, shall we? Georgia’s Sony Michel is a home-run threat with a knee issue that could shorten his career. Ronald Jones is a potential sleeper but there’s uncertainty over whether he can be a bell cow. Nick Chubb, Rashaad Penny and Bo Scarborough are all talented backs, but may be better suited for situational roles.

Derrius Guice, while lacking the hands to be a complete back, is a power back in the Thomas Rawls/Marshawn Lynch/Jonathan Stewart mold. He’s the kind of bruised a team that plays in cold weather like Denver needs. There are concerns over his maturity but if the Broncos can coach him up, they may have finally found an answer to their running game woes (and get him for an additional year by taking him in round one). 

Let’s Make A Deal

If you stumble across a mock of the upcoming NFL Draft, you’re likely to see these two words: projected trade. Time was, you didn’t include trades in your mock draft because it opened up a Pandora’s Box that took away from the overall theme of the piece.

This year, that kind of fantasy booking is unavoidable.

With six potential first-round QBs (four possibly going in the first five picks) and nearly a dozen teams in the market for a new signal caller, it’s hard to prognosticate next Thursday’s selection process without  predicting a shuffling of the deck. However, just because a deal makes sense doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. The chances of a trade occurring is dependent on two important factors: a team picking at the top of the draft willingly passing on an elite prospect in exchange for a war chest of assets, and another franchise on the outside looking in willing to pay the high cost of moving on up.

To better prepare for what may be a wild opening salvo, you must first locate which teams are candidates to drop back, which teams want to come up and who might be floating under the radar waiting for the right time to strike.

TRADE DOWN CANDIDATES

New York Giants (picking No. 2 overall)

Background: Giants general manager Dave Gettleman doesn’t have a history of moving out of a spot. He never traded down during his four-year tenure with the Panthers and traded up just once. Assuming the Cleveland Browns take Josh Allen with the first overall pick, that will leave the more pro-ready Sam Darnold on the board, which means Gettleman’s phone will be ringing off the hook. However, Big Blue will also be in position to select either dynamic RB Saquon Barkley or top defensive lineman Bradley Chubb, either of which would fill immediate needs.

Why They Would Move Down: It would be hard to turn down a Godfather offer from Buffalo or Arizona or another QB-needy franchise even in lieu of securing a generational talent like Barkley or a front-line menace like Chubb. The Giants have needs throughout the roster, and as great as Barkley or Chubb may be, their presence alone won’t turn things around.

Why They Wouldn’t Move Down: Beyond Gettleman’s reputation for staying put, there’s the issue of quality vs. quantity. There are 12 top-tier talents in this draft: the four QBs (Allen, Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield), Chubb, Barkley, offensive guard Quenton Nelson, LBs Tremaine Edwards and Roquan Smith as well as Denzel Ward, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James in the secondary. If you swap with Buffalo and move down to 12, you’re accepting the last remaining of that dozen as well as a lesser talent near the bottom of the round to go with potentially another pick next year. If you trade with Arizona, you’re missing out on one of those elite players entirely unless someone drops or you move back up. Gettleman will already draw his share of critics for passing on a QB when 37-year-old Eli Manning is on his last legs. If he turns down an entree for an appetizer sampler, it could haunt the franchise for a long time.

Cleveland Browns (picking No. 1 and No. 4 overall)

Background: Armed with four of the first 35 picks, the Browns are in a great position to continue building a bright future with this draft. The team already made a splash in the off-season by trading for the likes of Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry and Damarious Russell while signing Carlos Hyde. We know Cleveland is going QB with its first pick. We just don’t know who. At No. 4, however, things could get interesting.

Why They Would Move Down: The Browns are already guaranteed to fill their biggest need when they use the top spot on a franchise QB. However, like the Giants, the Browns have a plethora of needs even after all the wheeling and dealing they’ve done this spring. With so many teams looking to move up to grab a QB, new Cleveland GM John Dorsey may be tempted to take a deal that allows him to fill those holes now as opposed to leaving Day 1 with two potential studs.    

Why They Wouldn’t Move Down: The Browns have been linked to Barkley in quite a few mocks, assuming the Penn St. runner is still on the board when Cleveland is back on the clock, but the team’s real target should be Chubb. Being able to pair last year’s No. 1 pick Myles Garrett with another freak at the other end may be the final piece to what’s becoming a promising defensive unit. Even if Chubb is gone, a shutdown corner like Denzel Ward or a versatile defender like Minkah Fitzpatrick would be a solid piece as well. Also, unlike the Giants, the Browns have two early second-round picks at their disposal. They could use them to move up to catch a falling star or keep them to continue adding to their young roster. Either way, they aren’t in any position to get desperate.

Denver Broncos (picking No. 5 overall)

Background: SI’s Albert Breer reported last week that the Broncos may move down if the QB they like isn’t there when their time begins. Of course, as with the rest of the teams in this draft, there’s no concrete answer on who that target is. Denver’s alleged need for a QB seems like a lot of smoke considering the team just signed Case Keenum (who, granted, is 30 and coming off his first good season in Minnesota after being left for dead by the Rams), isn’t willing to give up on former first-rounder Paxton Lynch and has last year’s Mr. Irrelevant Chad Kelly waiting in the weeds. Regardless, based on Breer’s report and reading the tea leaves on Denver’s other moves, it would appear taking a QB isn’t as high a priority as it may be for those picking behind them.

Why They Would Trade Down: If you’re not taking a QB, you might as well make way for a team that is. Even if Denver is adamant on adding a young arm, they could still move down a few spots and find one (albeit one they might not be as enamored with). The Broncos have needs on the offensive line, in the secondary and, after the recent release of C.J. Anderson, at running back. There’s a chance of filling two of those three spots in exchange for letting someone else take a quarterback.

Why They Wouldn’t Trade Down: Chubb, Barkley, Nelson and Ward are all potential superstars who would all fill huge holes for the Broncos and none are expected to make it out of the top 10. If anyone understands the importance of a good running game, it’s GM John Elway, who won two Super Bowls thanks in large part to Terrell Davis carrying the water. Elway’s first championship as an executive came on the backs of a great defense. He might be more content with adding a potential building block than settling for an array of picks.

Indianapolis Colts (picking No. 6 overall)



Background: The Colts already won this draft when it snatched three second-round picks from the Jets in exchange for dropping down three spots to #6. The move back all but guarantees one of the Barkley/Chubb/Nelson troika will still be available. Even if they aren’t, they should feel good about having four picks in the first two rounds with the chance to add more.

Why They Would Trade Down: If, by some chance, none of those three names are still on the board, the Colts would be faced with taking one of the other defensive studs that remain or see who wants to come up and grab one of the falling QBs. If one or more teams move into the top 10 looking for a QB and/or Denver passes on one, it increases the chances of the Colts walking away with a defensive playmaker AND getting more picks for their troubles.

Why They Wouldn’t Trade Down: After Denver at 5, no other team in the top 10 needs a QB (and even Denver doesn’t “need” a QB), which means teams may be more willing to see how things play out before talking trade with the Colts. On Indy’s end, they already have three second-round picks and a chance to add to their porous defense. What incentive is there for them to move down unless they want to be extremely greedy? Is an extra pick or two worth missing out on a tackling machine like Smith or a cover guy like Ward? Unless another team blows them away with an offer, it’s hard to justify a deal. If anything, using the extra resources they already have to secure someone like Chubb would be more desirable.

TRADE UP CANDIDATES

Buffalo Bills (picking No. 12 and No. 22)

Background: After putting an end to the Tyrod Taylor era, the Bills are once again in search of their next Jim Kelly. The team signed career backup A.J. McCarron to a cheap deal and kept last year’s fifth-round pick Nathan Peterman on board in hopes he’s better than the guy who threw five interceptions in the first half of his rookie debut. The Bills still surprisingly made the playoffs last season, so they may feel they are a QB away from moving up the ranks.

Why They Would Move Up: Again, the Bills’ QB depth chart is McCarron and Peterman. The case could be made no team needs a QB more than Buffalo. While Buffalo has more holes than it would like to admit, using some draft capital to move up for a Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen or even Baker Mayfield may be worth the price if it means solidifying the sport’s most important position.

Why They Wouldn’t Move Up: As is the case with all the trade-up candidates, it really depends on how in love they are with a particular prospect. Barring something unforeseen, there’s no way all six QBs are taken before the 12th pick. Is Buffalo fine with staying put and taking a “second-tier” prospect like Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph? Also, while QBs will dominate the first half of the draft, it’s worth noting that none are without their warts. There are no Andrew Lucks or Cam Newtons or El Mannings in this draft. There may not even be a Carson Palmer. There’s a chance all six of these guys flop. If you sell the farm to move up for a flawed prospect and he’s not the goods, it could cripple your franchise.  

Arizona Cardinals (picking 15th)

Background: The Cardinals are in a bit more a precarious position than the Bills. Picking at 15, they may have to settle for scraps if they don’t move up. The team replaced the retired Carson Palmer with oft-injured former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon, who famously got leap-frogged by rookie Mitch Trubisky in Chicago last season. Backup Blaine Gabbert was not retained.  Needless to say, this team needs another arm in the worst way and they are almost certainly going to need to move up to get one.

Why They Would Move Up: The Cardinals are in the NFL’s middle ground. With stars like David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Chandler Jones, they have too much talent to do a full rebuild but they are lacking in enough areas to be more than just a player or two away. Bradford has proven he can’t be trusted as literally every team he’s played for has opted for a better alternative. The Rams eventually got Jared Goff. The Eagles landed Carson Wentz. The Vikings had Case Keenum last year before signing Kirk Cousins this offseason. Trusting a soon-to-be 31-year-old with bad knees is not a recipe for success. Whatever price Arizona will have to pay to move up for a QB with prove less costly than putting all their eggs in Bradford’s withered basket

Why They Wouldn’t Move Up: Let’s say it would cost Buffalo three first-round picks and another mid-round selection to move from 12 to the top 6. Imagine what it would cost Arizona to get up that high. A lot will depend on who is still on board by time Oakland is on the clock at 10 and whether or not Buffalo moved up or not. If five teams go quarterback in the first 12 and one of them is Buffalo, the Cardinals may be better served staying put. If they can’t walk away with one of the big six, there’s always Super Bowl MVP and current Eagles backup Nick Foles, who seems to always be around to clean up Bradford’s messes.

New England Patriots (picking No. 23 and No. 31 overall)




Background: Five-time Super Bowl champion and reigning MVP Tom Brady is still playing at a high level, but he’ll also be 41 in August and the team must plan for his eventual retirement. Former Brady heir apparent Jimmy Garoppolo is now in San Francisco and only 32-year-old Brian Hoyer remains behind Tom Terrific. After trading Brandin Cooks to the Rams for the No. 23 overall pick and having an early selection in the second round, the belief is New England will be using one of their first three picks on Brady’s successor.

Why They Would Move Up: I think there’s more smoke than fire to the Patriots/first-round QB talk but the obvious answer is Brady is near the end of his legendary career and this might the Patriots’ best shot at a QB. The team is believed to be infatuated with Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield, both undersized mobile QBs that are direct opposites from the Brady prototype. Mason Rudolph is also being linked to New England. Rudolph played in a spread offense at Oklahoma State so he’d benefit from sitting behind the greatest QB to ever live for a year or two.

Why They Wouldn’t Move Up: Gee, where do we start? For starters, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a team interested in moving down to the bottom half of the draft, even if it means getting a bevy of picks in return. Maybe you talk Washington (picking 13th) or Green Bay (14th) to move down a few spots in exchange for both of your firsts and possibly one of your two second-rounders, but even that seems unlikely and not even worthwhile for the Pats. The larger issue is the team has bigger needs elsewhere. After losing Nate Solder in free agency, the team needs a new left tackle. What’s the point in securing your QB of the future if you can’t protect your QB of the present? Second, the departures of Cooks and Danny Amendola combined with Rob Gronkowski’s uncertain future and the loss of Dion Lewis weakens the offense. That needs to be addressed. Lastly, the Pats made the Super Bowl last season in spite of its terrible defense not because of it. After replacing Malcolm Butler with Jason McCourtey, the unit is even worse. With QBs pushing defensive prospects down the board this year, New England would be better served loading up on guys who will keep them from getting roasted by a journeyman backup QB in the biggest game of the year.

WILD CARDS




L.A. Chargers (picking No. 16) and Pittsburgh Steelers (picking No. 28 overall): I’ll group these two together because they are in same boat. Like the Giants, the Chargers and Steelers are faced with finding an heir apparent for a member of the vaunted 2004 draft. Unlike the Giants, L.A. and Pittsburgh are still considered contenders and might opt for someone who can help them now instead. With Ben Roethlisberger hinting at retirement and Philip Rivers starting to show his age, both of their respective teams will be looking for replacements sooner rather than later. Whether that’s this year remains to be seen.

Baltimore Ravens (picking No. 18 overall): Joe Flacco is 33 years old with a bad back and (surprise, surprise) hasn’t been the same QB since leading the Ravens to a Super Bowl win nearly a decade ago. Sitting in prime Lamar Jackson territory and having only the washed Robert Griffin III behind Jersey Joe, the Ravens may decide now is the time to strike.

New Orleans Saints (picking No. 27 overall): Drew Brees is 39 years old and there’s no contingency plan in place behind him. Brees is still one of the game’s most dynamic passers but his deep ball isn’t what it was. The Saints were a blown pass coverage on a Case Keenum-to-Stefon Diggs prayer away from a Super Bowl run, so they may decide to hold off on a QB this year. They also don’t have a second-round pick (traded to SF in last year’s Alvin Kamara trade on draft day.), so moving back to acquire more picks may be a better idea. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (picking No. 29): The Jags are the sexy pick to follow the Chiefs and Texans’ blueprint from last year and make a big move from the bottom of the draft to the top to nab a QB. Jacksonville already has an exciting young defense, one of the league’s rising stars in RB Leonard Fournette and a decent array of receivers (though they could use some help after losing Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns in free agency). All they need is a solid QB and, as proven in the AFC Championship, Blake Bortles isn’t it. Assuming they could find a team comfortable with moving all the way down to the end of round one, a package of picks in exchange for someone like Josh Rosen or Lamar Jackson could be the final piece of Jacksonville’s championship puzzle.