This year, that kind of fantasy booking is unavoidable.
With six potential first-round QBs (four possibly going in the first five picks) and nearly a dozen teams in the market for a new signal caller, it’s hard to prognosticate next Thursday’s selection process without predicting a shuffling of the deck. However, just because a deal makes sense doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. The chances of a trade occurring is dependent on two important factors: a team picking at the top of the draft willingly passing on an elite prospect in exchange for a war chest of assets, and another franchise on the outside looking in willing to pay the high cost of moving on up.
To better prepare for what may be a wild opening salvo, you must first locate which teams are candidates to drop back, which teams want to come up and who might be floating under the radar waiting for the right time to strike.
TRADE DOWN CANDIDATES
New York Giants (picking No. 2 overall)
Background: Giants general manager Dave Gettleman doesn’t have a history of moving out of a spot. He never traded down during his four-year tenure with the Panthers and traded up just once. Assuming the Cleveland Browns take Josh Allen with the first overall pick, that will leave the more pro-ready Sam Darnold on the board, which means Gettleman’s phone will be ringing off the hook. However, Big Blue will also be in position to select either dynamic RB Saquon Barkley or top defensive lineman Bradley Chubb, either of which would fill immediate needs.
Why They Would Move Down: It would be hard to turn down a Godfather offer from Buffalo or Arizona or another QB-needy franchise even in lieu of securing a generational talent like Barkley or a front-line menace like Chubb. The Giants have needs throughout the roster, and as great as Barkley or Chubb may be, their presence alone won’t turn things around.
Why They Wouldn’t Move Down: Beyond Gettleman’s reputation for staying put, there’s the issue of quality vs. quantity. There are 12 top-tier talents in this draft: the four QBs (Allen, Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield), Chubb, Barkley, offensive guard Quenton Nelson, LBs Tremaine Edwards and Roquan Smith as well as Denzel Ward, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James in the secondary. If you swap with Buffalo and move down to 12, you’re accepting the last remaining of that dozen as well as a lesser talent near the bottom of the round to go with potentially another pick next year. If you trade with Arizona, you’re missing out on one of those elite players entirely unless someone drops or you move back up. Gettleman will already draw his share of critics for passing on a QB when 37-year-old Eli Manning is on his last legs. If he turns down an entree for an appetizer sampler, it could haunt the franchise for a long time.
Cleveland Browns (picking No. 1 and No. 4 overall)
Background: Armed with four of the first 35 picks, the Browns are in a great position to continue building a bright future with this draft. The team already made a splash in the off-season by trading for the likes of Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry and Damarious Russell while signing Carlos Hyde. We know Cleveland is going QB with its first pick. We just don’t know who. At No. 4, however, things could get interesting.
Why They Would Move Down: The Browns are already guaranteed to fill their biggest need when they use the top spot on a franchise QB. However, like the Giants, the Browns have a plethora of needs even after all the wheeling and dealing they’ve done this spring. With so many teams looking to move up to grab a QB, new Cleveland GM John Dorsey may be tempted to take a deal that allows him to fill those holes now as opposed to leaving Day 1 with two potential studs.
Why They Wouldn’t Move Down: The Browns have been linked to Barkley in quite a few mocks, assuming the Penn St. runner is still on the board when Cleveland is back on the clock, but the team’s real target should be Chubb. Being able to pair last year’s No. 1 pick Myles Garrett with another freak at the other end may be the final piece to what’s becoming a promising defensive unit. Even if Chubb is gone, a shutdown corner like Denzel Ward or a versatile defender like Minkah Fitzpatrick would be a solid piece as well. Also, unlike the Giants, the Browns have two early second-round picks at their disposal. They could use them to move up to catch a falling star or keep them to continue adding to their young roster. Either way, they aren’t in any position to get desperate.
Denver Broncos (picking No. 5 overall)
Background: SI’s Albert Breer reported last week that the Broncos may move down if the QB they like isn’t there when their time begins. Of course, as with the rest of the teams in this draft, there’s no concrete answer on who that target is. Denver’s alleged need for a QB seems like a lot of smoke considering the team just signed Case Keenum (who, granted, is 30 and coming off his first good season in Minnesota after being left for dead by the Rams), isn’t willing to give up on former first-rounder Paxton Lynch and has last year’s Mr. Irrelevant Chad Kelly waiting in the weeds. Regardless, based on Breer’s report and reading the tea leaves on Denver’s other moves, it would appear taking a QB isn’t as high a priority as it may be for those picking behind them.
Why They Would Trade Down: If you’re not taking a QB, you might as well make way for a team that is. Even if Denver is adamant on adding a young arm, they could still move down a few spots and find one (albeit one they might not be as enamored with). The Broncos have needs on the offensive line, in the secondary and, after the recent release of C.J. Anderson, at running back. There’s a chance of filling two of those three spots in exchange for letting someone else take a quarterback.
Why They Wouldn’t Trade Down: Chubb, Barkley, Nelson and Ward are all potential superstars who would all fill huge holes for the Broncos and none are expected to make it out of the top 10. If anyone understands the importance of a good running game, it’s GM John Elway, who won two Super Bowls thanks in large part to Terrell Davis carrying the water. Elway’s first championship as an executive came on the backs of a great defense. He might be more content with adding a potential building block than settling for an array of picks.
Indianapolis Colts (picking No. 6 overall)
Background: The Colts already won this draft when it snatched three second-round picks from the Jets in exchange for dropping down three spots to #6. The move back all but guarantees one of the Barkley/Chubb/Nelson troika will still be available. Even if they aren’t, they should feel good about having four picks in the first two rounds with the chance to add more.
Why They Would Trade Down: If, by some chance, none of those three names are still on the board, the Colts would be faced with taking one of the other defensive studs that remain or see who wants to come up and grab one of the falling QBs. If one or more teams move into the top 10 looking for a QB and/or Denver passes on one, it increases the chances of the Colts walking away with a defensive playmaker AND getting more picks for their troubles.
Why They Wouldn’t Trade Down: After Denver at 5, no other team in the top 10 needs a QB (and even Denver doesn’t “need” a QB), which means teams may be more willing to see how things play out before talking trade with the Colts. On Indy’s end, they already have three second-round picks and a chance to add to their porous defense. What incentive is there for them to move down unless they want to be extremely greedy? Is an extra pick or two worth missing out on a tackling machine like Smith or a cover guy like Ward? Unless another team blows them away with an offer, it’s hard to justify a deal. If anything, using the extra resources they already have to secure someone like Chubb would be more desirable.
TRADE UP CANDIDATES
Buffalo Bills (picking No. 12 and No. 22)
Background: After putting an end to the Tyrod Taylor era, the Bills are once again in search of their next Jim Kelly. The team signed career backup A.J. McCarron to a cheap deal and kept last year’s fifth-round pick Nathan Peterman on board in hopes he’s better than the guy who threw five interceptions in the first half of his rookie debut. The Bills still surprisingly made the playoffs last season, so they may feel they are a QB away from moving up the ranks.
Why They Would Move Up: Again, the Bills’ QB depth chart is McCarron and Peterman. The case could be made no team needs a QB more than Buffalo. While Buffalo has more holes than it would like to admit, using some draft capital to move up for a Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen or even Baker Mayfield may be worth the price if it means solidifying the sport’s most important position.
Why They Wouldn’t Move Up: As is the case with all the trade-up candidates, it really depends on how in love they are with a particular prospect. Barring something unforeseen, there’s no way all six QBs are taken before the 12th pick. Is Buffalo fine with staying put and taking a “second-tier” prospect like Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph? Also, while QBs will dominate the first half of the draft, it’s worth noting that none are without their warts. There are no Andrew Lucks or Cam Newtons or El Mannings in this draft. There may not even be a Carson Palmer. There’s a chance all six of these guys flop. If you sell the farm to move up for a flawed prospect and he’s not the goods, it could cripple your franchise.
Arizona Cardinals (picking 15th)
Background: The Cardinals are in a bit more a precarious position than the Bills. Picking at 15, they may have to settle for scraps if they don’t move up. The team replaced the retired Carson Palmer with oft-injured former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon, who famously got leap-frogged by rookie Mitch Trubisky in Chicago last season. Backup Blaine Gabbert was not retained. Needless to say, this team needs another arm in the worst way and they are almost certainly going to need to move up to get one.
Why They Would Move Up: The Cardinals are in the NFL’s middle ground. With stars like David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Chandler Jones, they have too much talent to do a full rebuild but they are lacking in enough areas to be more than just a player or two away. Bradford has proven he can’t be trusted as literally every team he’s played for has opted for a better alternative. The Rams eventually got Jared Goff. The Eagles landed Carson Wentz. The Vikings had Case Keenum last year before signing Kirk Cousins this offseason. Trusting a soon-to-be 31-year-old with bad knees is not a recipe for success. Whatever price Arizona will have to pay to move up for a QB with prove less costly than putting all their eggs in Bradford’s withered basket
Why They Wouldn’t Move Up: Let’s say it would cost Buffalo three first-round picks and another mid-round selection to move from 12 to the top 6. Imagine what it would cost Arizona to get up that high. A lot will depend on who is still on board by time Oakland is on the clock at 10 and whether or not Buffalo moved up or not. If five teams go quarterback in the first 12 and one of them is Buffalo, the Cardinals may be better served staying put. If they can’t walk away with one of the big six, there’s always Super Bowl MVP and current Eagles backup Nick Foles, who seems to always be around to clean up Bradford’s messes.
New England Patriots (picking No. 23 and No. 31 overall)
Background: Five-time Super Bowl champion and reigning MVP Tom Brady is still playing at a high level, but he’ll also be 41 in August and the team must plan for his eventual retirement. Former Brady heir apparent Jimmy Garoppolo is now in San Francisco and only 32-year-old Brian Hoyer remains behind Tom Terrific. After trading Brandin Cooks to the Rams for the No. 23 overall pick and having an early selection in the second round, the belief is New England will be using one of their first three picks on Brady’s successor.
Why They Would Move Up: I think there’s more smoke than fire to the Patriots/first-round QB talk but the obvious answer is Brady is near the end of his legendary career and this might the Patriots’ best shot at a QB. The team is believed to be infatuated with Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield, both undersized mobile QBs that are direct opposites from the Brady prototype. Mason Rudolph is also being linked to New England. Rudolph played in a spread offense at Oklahoma State so he’d benefit from sitting behind the greatest QB to ever live for a year or two.
Why They Wouldn’t Move Up: Gee, where do we start? For starters, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a team interested in moving down to the bottom half of the draft, even if it means getting a bevy of picks in return. Maybe you talk Washington (picking 13th) or Green Bay (14th) to move down a few spots in exchange for both of your firsts and possibly one of your two second-rounders, but even that seems unlikely and not even worthwhile for the Pats. The larger issue is the team has bigger needs elsewhere. After losing Nate Solder in free agency, the team needs a new left tackle. What’s the point in securing your QB of the future if you can’t protect your QB of the present? Second, the departures of Cooks and Danny Amendola combined with Rob Gronkowski’s uncertain future and the loss of Dion Lewis weakens the offense. That needs to be addressed. Lastly, the Pats made the Super Bowl last season in spite of its terrible defense not because of it. After replacing Malcolm Butler with Jason McCourtey, the unit is even worse. With QBs pushing defensive prospects down the board this year, New England would be better served loading up on guys who will keep them from getting roasted by a journeyman backup QB in the biggest game of the year.
WILD CARDS
L.A. Chargers (picking No. 16) and Pittsburgh Steelers (picking No. 28 overall): I’ll group these two together because they are in same boat. Like the Giants, the Chargers and Steelers are faced with finding an heir apparent for a member of the vaunted 2004 draft. Unlike the Giants, L.A. and Pittsburgh are still considered contenders and might opt for someone who can help them now instead. With Ben Roethlisberger hinting at retirement and Philip Rivers starting to show his age, both of their respective teams will be looking for replacements sooner rather than later. Whether that’s this year remains to be seen.
Baltimore Ravens (picking No. 18 overall): Joe Flacco is 33 years old with a bad back and (surprise, surprise) hasn’t been the same QB since leading the Ravens to a Super Bowl win nearly a decade ago. Sitting in prime Lamar Jackson territory and having only the washed Robert Griffin III behind Jersey Joe, the Ravens may decide now is the time to strike.
New Orleans Saints (picking No. 27 overall): Drew Brees is 39 years old and there’s no contingency plan in place behind him. Brees is still one of the game’s most dynamic passers but his deep ball isn’t what it was. The Saints were a blown pass coverage on a Case Keenum-to-Stefon Diggs prayer away from a Super Bowl run, so they may decide to hold off on a QB this year. They also don’t have a second-round pick (traded to SF in last year’s Alvin Kamara trade on draft day.), so moving back to acquire more picks may be a better idea.
Jacksonville Jaguars (picking No. 29): The Jags are the sexy pick to follow the Chiefs and Texans’ blueprint from last year and make a big move from the bottom of the draft to the top to nab a QB. Jacksonville already has an exciting young defense, one of the league’s rising stars in RB Leonard Fournette and a decent array of receivers (though they could use some help after losing Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns in free agency). All they need is a solid QB and, as proven in the AFC Championship, Blake Bortles isn’t it. Assuming they could find a team comfortable with moving all the way down to the end of round one, a package of picks in exchange for someone like Josh Rosen or Lamar Jackson could be the final piece of Jacksonville’s championship puzzle.
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