2018 NFL Mock Draft

Let’s skip the preamble and get right to it.

1. Cleveland Browns: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming 

The latest out of Cleveland is this pick is down to Allen and Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, which means the Browns are probably taking USC’s Sam Darnold. GM John Dorsey has done a superb job of keeping where he’s leaning under wraps and we might not even know who he’s taking under Roger Goodell takes the stand.

As of this writing, I’m rolling with Allen, even though the smart money is on Darnold. He’s big (6’5, 237lbs), athletic and has the strongest arm in the draft, which is typically what Dorsey and OC Todd Haley prefers. I’m also not ready to completely rule out Mayfield, who gained momentum in recent weeks.

2. New York Giants: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

This is a no-brainer to me. The Giants haven’t had a franchise running back since Tiki Barber retired 12 years ago and Barkley is being described as the best rushing prospect of the last 25 years. Yes, a QB to groom behind 37-year-old Eli Manning would be nice. Yes, Big Blue has a hole at defensive end that could be filled by North Carolina State’s Bradley Chubb.

However, the possibility of an offensive nucleus of Barkley, Odell Beckham Jr, Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard (all 25 or younger) is too good to pass up.

3. New York Jets (via IND) : Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma 

Mayfield over Donald? Seems crazy, right? Maybe not. Mayfield is the most accurate QB in this draft, and despite his lack of ideal height (just a shade over six feet tall) and personality issues (he’s one cocky MFer), he doesn’t come with as many warts as Darnold, who was turnover-prone at SC and needs to work on mechanics/footwork.

“Broadway Baker” is a great fit for new OC Jeremy Bates’ scheme and his brash attitude will go over well in the surly tri-state area. 

4. Cleveland Browns (via HOU): Bradley Chubb, DE, North Carolina State

The Browns will likely field calls from QB-needy teams regardless of which prospects are on the board. If they stay put, Chubb makes the most sense as a bookend pass-rusher to pair with last year’s No. 1 pick Myles Garrett. Chubb’s pass-rushing ability is what will draw the most attention but he’s stout against the run as well.

TRADE!

The Buffalo Bills send the No. 12 pick, a second-round pick (No. 53 overall) and a 2019 first-rounder to the Denver Broncos for the No. 5 overall pick

We have our first of many trades in this mock. The Bills desperately need a QB, and armed with five picks in the first three rounds, they have the ammo to move up. Broncos GM John Elway expresses interest in moving down, and being able to secure a potential top-5 pick next year to drop seven spots is a nice haul. 

5. Buffalo Bills (via DEN): Sam Darnold, QB, USC

With A.J. McCarron and Nathan Peterman leading the depth chart, the Bills can’t afford to sit back and wait for a QB to come to them. Regardless of who is still on the board, I fully expect Buffalo to get aggressive in their pursuit of the next Jim Kelly.

At just 20 years old, Darnold is the youngest QB to go in the first round since Alex Smith in 2005. There are some technical kinks that need to be worked out before he’s pro-ready but Buffalo has enough safeguards in place to bring him along slowly.

6. Indianapolis Colts (via NYJ): Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia 

The Colts took advantage of the Jets’ desperation for a new QB months ago by striking a deal to move down three spots in exchange for three second-round picks. Now, they’ll benefit even further from the signal caller frenzy by grabbing whatever top-tier defensive talent falls to them.

Smith is a classic sideline-to-sideline inside linebacker who has drawn comparisons to guys like Ray Lewis, Jon Vilma and Luke Kuechly. Whether he’s on par with those greats remains to be seen, but the Colts, who finished near the bottom in almost every defensive catagory, could certainly use his help up the middle.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Derwin James, S, Florida State 

In a perfect world, Saquon Barkley falls to Tampa and fixes their long-standing need for a running game. In reality, the Bucs will choose between addressing their secondary with either James, Denzel Ward or Minkah Fitzpatrick or solidify a weak offensive line with stellar guard Quentin Nelson. 

James gets the call here because he doesn’t have Ward’s size concerns and, while he can play all over the defensive backfield, he has a more defined position than the versatile Fitzpatrick. James had some injuries at Florida State but teams are starting to come around on any durability concerns.

8. Chicago Bears: Quentin Nelson, G, Notre Dame

The Bears let Josh Sitton walk while their other starter, Kyle Long, is on the mend from offseason neck surgery. With young QB Mitch Trubisky still developing and the running game looking to bounce back after a down year, landing a road grader like Nelson to stabalize the offensive line is paramount.

Nelson is considered one of the safest and cleanest prospects in the draft. He’s been compared to Hall of Famer Larry Allen, arguably the greatest guard to ever take the field. That’s pretty heavy praise, but if Nelson can live up to the hype, he can be the kind of building block that helps the Bears turn things around.

9. San Francisco 49ers: Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama 

With Reuben Foster dodging a bullet by having offseason domestic abuse charges dropped, linebacker isn’t as big of a need as it once was. The Niners could still look at Virginia Tech’s Tremaine Edwards as both a safety net if Foster steps out of line and as a potential partner inside.

For now, Fitzpatrick gets the call. Safety Eric Reid doesn’t appear likely to return and the secondary doesn’t have much beyond free-agent acquisition Richard Sherman, who is 30 years old and coming off an Achilles injury. Fitzpatrick is like a bigger Tyron Mathieu, a defensive Swiss Army knife who just knows how to make plays. Whether he lines up in the slot, in the box or out deep, he’s sure to find a home in the Bay Area. 

TRADE! 

The Arizona Cardinals send No. 15 overall, a third-round pick (No.79) and a 2019 third-round pick to the Oakland Raiders for No. 10 overall pick

Upon first glance, this seems like a steep price to move up five spots but top-10 slots that lead to franchise QBs have a hefty cost. With Miami looming at No.11, the Cardinals strike now to get their guy. The Raiders, filled with holes that one player can’t fill by his lonesome, gladly oblige. 

10. Arizona Cardinals (from OAK): Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

Despite being heralded as the most technically sound QB in this draft, Josh Rosen seems the most likely of the Big Four QBs to fall. Questions about his durability (concussions/shoulder issues in college), attitude (known to be outspoken) and commitment to football (he’s not hurting for money) have all been listed as red flags. 

The Cardinals can’t afford to be picky. Injury-prone Sam Bradford and mediocrity-prone Mike Glennon are the team’s top two QBs and neither can be considered long-term answers. If Rosen (or any of the big four) slide to the bottom of the top 10, Arizona needs to move fast to catch him.

11. Miami Dolphins: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

The Dolphins could use a quarterback but I don’t think they’ll move up for one. Yes, Ryan Tannehill will be 30 in July and is coming off his second ACL tear since December 2016, but I think he gets another chance to resuscitate his career.

The defense, however, doesn’t have the same luxury. A 6’5”, 250-pound athletic freak, Edmunds was a finalist for the Butkus award as a 19-year-old junior. With last year’s second-round pick Raekwon McMillan returning from a torn ACL, the Dolphins would have two young LBs to go along with offseason acquisition Robert Quinn. Ohio State corner Denzel Wars is another option.

12. Denver Broncos (via BUF): Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

This would be a dream scenario for the Broncos. After trading Aqib Talib to the Rams, Denver needs another corner to fill his spot and Ward is considered the best of a deep rookie crop. 

At 5’11” and 190 pounds, Ward lacks ideal height but he makes up for it with elite speed and agility. He also comes from a pro factory at Ohio State which produced quality corners such as reigning DROY Marshon Lattimore. If Ward doesn’t fall in Denver’s lap, a pass-rusher or another body for the offensive line would be the next best thing.

13. Washington Redskins: Vita Vea, DT, Washington 

DraftAnalyst.com’s Tony Pauline calls Vita Vea-to-Washington “the NFL’s worst-kept secret”. Why would it be? The Skins haven’t had an interior presence on the defensive line in years and Vea is a monster of a man inside. 

Standing 6’4”, 350 pounds with uncanny quickness and insane strength, Vea draws comparisons to Pro Bowl DT Haloti Ngata. Worst-case scenario, he clogs the middle and helps an ailing run defense. Best-case scenario, he shows some pass-rushing chops while teaming with Jonathan Allen to wreak havoc on opposing QBs.

14. Green Bay Packers: Harold Landry, DE/LB, Boston College 

The Packers haven’t picked this high since 2009, when they took BJ Raji at No. 10 then moved back up in round one to take Clay Matthews. Coincidentally, Green Bay is rumored to be interested in trading up again this time around. 

If they stay put, the team will almost certainly address a defensive unit that’s become a weak link over the last few years. Harold Landry might be the most natural pass-rusher in the draft and he would help Green Bay make a seamless transition away from the aging Matthews. Marcus Davenport, who is athletically gifted but raw, is another option as is defensive back.

15. Oakland Raiders (from ARZ): Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA

The Raiders have needs all across their defense but the offensive line could quickly become a priority. Left tackle Donald Penn is 35 years old and the right side is a mess. The team is rumored to be smitten with Miller, who has a connection with offensive line coach Tom Cable. 

A 6’8”, 310-pound behemoth, Miller could start on the right side before replacing Penn when Father Time finally comes for him.

16. Baltimore Ravens: Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA

Marcus Davenport is one of the more interesting prospects in this draft. He’s huge (6’7, 255), athletic (dominated the combine) and draws comparisons to future Hall of Famer Demarcus Ware. However, like Ware, he’s a small school standout who didn’t battle much elite competition. 

The Ravens addressed their wide receiver needs with the additions of Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead, but could still take a young pass catcher here. Tight end, offensive tackle and even quarterback (Joe Flacco is 33 and hasn’t been productive in years) might also get a look.

17. Los Angeles Chargers: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

The Chargers have needs at defensive tackle, inside linebacker and safety, all of which have key prospects available here. They might also look for Phillip Rivers’ successor while they have a chance.

However, with Rivers still under center, it’s important that the team keeps him upright. McGlinchey doesn’t have Kolton Miller’s athletic profile and he struggled at times against speed rushers but he’s a steady tackle who could prove to be a solid starter. 

TRADE!

Jacksonville Jaguars trade No. 29 overall, their second-round pick (No. 61 overall) and a 2019 first-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks for No. 18 overall.

This trade makes a ton of sense for both teams, which means it absolutely won’t happen. The Seahawks are rebuilding but wouldn’t pick again until round 4 unless they trade down. The Jags, meanwhile, are a QB away from being a perennial title contender and there happens to be a pretty good one available.

18. Jacksonville Jaguars (via BAL): Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville 

The Jaguars could’ve made the Super Bowl last season had it not brought Blake Bortles to a shootout with Tom Brady. Bortles got a new extension but it doesn’t guarantee him a future in Jacksonville unless he improves significantly.

By moving up for Jackson, the Jaguars at least hedge their bets on their QB quandary. He needs time to develop as a natural passer but he has all the tools to be great and his ability as a runner could get him on the field early in select packages. Plus, is there better marketing than the Jacksonville Jaguars having a guy named Jackson as its starting QB?

19. Dallas Cowboys: Leighton Vanden Esch, LB, Boise State

The Cowboys had a huge need at wideout even before Dez Bryant paid the iron price and was shipped out of town. So, you can’t rule out Dallas taking the first receiver off the board here.

However, Dallas’ defense is still a work in progress and there are reports that some inside the Cowboys’ front office liken Vanden Esch to Bears legend Brian Urlacher. Vanden Esch was wildly productive at Boise State but concerns over his neck may cause him to slide and has already scared off a few teams. If Dallas gets cold feet, anyone from the DJ Moore/Calvin Ridley/Courtland Sutton receiver tree would suffice.

20. Detroit Lions: Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama 

The Lions should hope Harold Landry or Marcus Davenport drop to both pair with star defensive end Ezekiel Ansah and/or replace him if a long-term deal can’t be worked out.

Since that isn’t happening in this mock, Motown does the next best thing and lands a high-motor defensive tackle for the Motor City. The Lions haven’t had an interior presence since cutting Ndomakong Suh loose, and with Haloti Ngata also gone, they need someone who could cause disruption inside. That’s Payne’s forte.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (via BUF): Frank Ragnow, C, Arkansas 

Even after adding left tackle Cordy Glenn in the trade-down with the Bills, the Bengals’ offensive line rebuild isn’t over. The team still has a huge need on the interior, which is why landing the versatile Frank Ragnow makes sense. 

Ragnow played guard and center at Arkansas and his ability to play all three inside spots is helping climb up draft boards. Cincy could still use help in their defensive front seven and at receiver, but addressing the o-line should be mission one.

22. Buffalo Bills: James Daniels, C, Iowa

The Bills want to move up in the draft without giving up this pick and with good reason. With so many offensive linemen being pushed down the board thanks to the QB and the Bills having holes at tackle and center, it’s important that Buffalo finds a way to land its franchise QB without sacrificing a chance at getting him some protection.

Like Ragnow, Daniels can play guard or center, which comes in handy for Buffalo following Eric Wood’s retirement. Daniels comes from a school known for producing quality offensive linemen and he’s the kind of rugged mauler who can handle the snowy weather in a western New York.

23. New England Patriots (via LAR): Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama 

The Patriots’ undoing last season was a defensive unit that fell apart at the seams due to injuries and a lack of depth. Those concerns only grew bigger after the departure of CB Malcolm Butler. That’s why, despite a need for offensive line help and a desire to find a new QB, New England needs to find some defensive playmakers in this draft. 

Evans can team with and eventually replace the declining Jerrod Mayo to give the Pats a presence inside. He’s a tackling machine with the added ability to get after the passer in the right scheme. He could be the start of New England’s defensive rebuild.

24. Carolina Panthers: Will Hernandez, G, UTEP

Ideally, the Panthers would want either Daniels or Ragnow to fall to them. The team lost guard Andrew Norwell in free agency and aging center Ryan Kalil is set retire after this season. 

With both gone, the Panthers turn to Hernandez, who is an old school bulldozer that will help open lanes for dynamic back Christian McCafferey and keep Cam Newton from running for his life. Cornerback, wife receiver and tight end are other areas of need, as well.

25. Tennessee Titans: Lorenzo Carter, LB, Georgia 

Smart money is on Tennessee moving out of this spot. They need a pass-rusher and a linebacker but all four of the elite prospects at those positions will likely be gone when they get on the clock. 

While a slight reach here, the 6’6” 243-pound Carter fills the Titans’ need for a linebacker who can get after the quarterback. The team has also been linked to DE Sam Hubbard, who shares Ohio State roots with new head coach Mike Vrabel. Either prospect is still a possibility even if the team trades back.

26. Atlanta Falcons: Taven Bryan, DT, Florida 

Taven Bryan is a name that could come off the board sooner than some expect. He’s a hustler with a lightning-quick first step but he was just a one-year starter for the Gators, so he’s still a bit raw.

Some scouts see him as potentially the next J.J. Watt based on his athletic ability and work ethic. However, he’s going to need to pick up things fast to be on par with the three-time DPOY. Regardless, he’s an interior presence to go along with pass-rushing dynamos Vic Beasley and Tak McKinley.

TRADE! 

The Cleveland Browns trade No. 35 and No. 64 (both second-round picks) to the New Orleans Saints for No. 27 overall.

With few needs and no second-round pick, the Saints opt to move out of the first round in exchange for a eight-spot drop. If New Orleans stays, there’s a good chance they take a tight end like Hayden Hurst or Mike Gesicki. 

The bottom of the first round is where you may see teams with a surplus of Day 2 picks (like Cleveland) move up in order to get a prospect they like so they can sign them for an extra year. 

27. Cleveland Browns (via NO): Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa 

With so many teams in the bottom third of the first round looking for a corner, the Browns choose not to wait and move to grab one of the draft’s best ball hawks. 

Jackson’s stock dropped a bit due to a subpar 40 time (believed to be the 4.5 range), but you can’t put a stopwatch on instincts or his knack for getting his hands on the football. Jackson snatched eight interceptions as a junior last season, and while the Browns addressed the secondary a bit in the offseason, adding another young playmaker can’t hurt.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers: Justin Reid, S, Stanford

If Vanden Esch or Evans don’t drop to Pittsburgh, this becomes an interesting spot for the Steelers. Do they find Ben Roethlisberger‘s heir apparent in Mason Rudolph here? Do they go running back in light of Le’Veon Bell’s contract issues? Corner? Defensive line? There are no wrong answers.

Even after signing Morgon Burnett away from the Packers, the Steelers could still use safety help. Reid is a name being passed around as a late first-round pick after a solid junior season. 

29. Seattle Seahawks (via JAX): Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville 

Other than quarterback, there isn’t a position that doesn’t need to be addressed here. The Seahawks spent the offseason riding themselves of nearly every big name on the roster. Richard Sherman? Gone. Michael Bennett? Gone. Jimmy Graham? Gone.  Kam Chancellor? May never play again. Earl Thomas? On the trading block. 

The main area of need is on the offensive line, which means someone like Georgia’s Isaiah Wynn or even Texas’ Connor Williams is possible. In this case, Seattle goes for the best defender available and hopes Alexander could be the start of the next Legion of Boom.

TRADE! 

The Indianapolis Colts trade a second-round pick (No. 36 overall) and a fifth-round pick (No. 140) to the Minnesota Vikings for No. 30 overall

With the top linemen on both sides of the ball taken, Minnesota opts to bow out of the first round and let the Colts add to the roster. Indy could probably stay put and hope to address more needs on Day 2, but the second round could see a run on skill position players and the Colts might be left grasping at straws.

30. Indianapolis Colts (via MIN): DJ Moore, WR, Maryland 

I was torn between taking the first receiver or going running back. Both are big needs for a Colts offense looking to get its groove back with a (hopefully) healthy Andrew Luck. 

Moore is gaining momentum as the draft’s top wideout. He’s not as good of a route runner as Calvin Ridley or as big as Courtland Sutton but he’s got speed and is dangerous after the catch. With Donte Moncrief gone, the Colts could use another weapon opposite T.Y. Hilton and Moore is a solid #2.

31. New England Patriots: Isaiah Wynn, G, Georgia 

The Patriots are a mortal lock to use one of its first four picks on a QB to eventually replace soon-to-be-41-year-old Tom Brady and this would be a good spot for Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph.

However, as long as TB12 is in a Patriots uniform, New England is a contender and the priority shifts to adding pieces that will help the team win now. After losing left tackle Nate Solder in free agency, finding someone who can protect Brady is important. Wynn played tackle in college but may be better suited at guard. Regardless of where he lines up, he’s a plug-and-play starter for a team in desperate need of talent.

TRADE! 

The Denver Broncos trade a second-round pick (No. 40 overall), a fourth-round pick (No. 105 overall) and a fifth-round pick (No. 154 overall) to the Philadelphia Eagles for No. 32 overall

With no second or third-round pick, the Eagles are reportedly desperate to move out of the first round in order to secure more picks. The Broncos, having landed more picks in their own move downward earlier in the draft, use their surplus of Day 3 picks to get back into the opening salvo.

32. Denver Broncos (from PHI): Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

Yes, there are plenty of RBs that could’ve fell to Denver had they not moved up but let’s look at them, shall we? Georgia’s Sony Michel is a home-run threat with a knee issue that could shorten his career. Ronald Jones is a potential sleeper but there’s uncertainty over whether he can be a bell cow. Nick Chubb, Rashaad Penny and Bo Scarborough are all talented backs, but may be better suited for situational roles.

Derrius Guice, while lacking the hands to be a complete back, is a power back in the Thomas Rawls/Marshawn Lynch/Jonathan Stewart mold. He’s the kind of bruised a team that plays in cold weather like Denver needs. There are concerns over his maturity but if the Broncos can coach him up, they may have finally found an answer to their running game woes (and get him for an additional year by taking him in round one). 

Let’s Make A Deal

If you stumble across a mock of the upcoming NFL Draft, you’re likely to see these two words: projected trade. Time was, you didn’t include trades in your mock draft because it opened up a Pandora’s Box that took away from the overall theme of the piece.

This year, that kind of fantasy booking is unavoidable.

With six potential first-round QBs (four possibly going in the first five picks) and nearly a dozen teams in the market for a new signal caller, it’s hard to prognosticate next Thursday’s selection process without  predicting a shuffling of the deck. However, just because a deal makes sense doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. The chances of a trade occurring is dependent on two important factors: a team picking at the top of the draft willingly passing on an elite prospect in exchange for a war chest of assets, and another franchise on the outside looking in willing to pay the high cost of moving on up.

To better prepare for what may be a wild opening salvo, you must first locate which teams are candidates to drop back, which teams want to come up and who might be floating under the radar waiting for the right time to strike.

TRADE DOWN CANDIDATES

New York Giants (picking No. 2 overall)

Background: Giants general manager Dave Gettleman doesn’t have a history of moving out of a spot. He never traded down during his four-year tenure with the Panthers and traded up just once. Assuming the Cleveland Browns take Josh Allen with the first overall pick, that will leave the more pro-ready Sam Darnold on the board, which means Gettleman’s phone will be ringing off the hook. However, Big Blue will also be in position to select either dynamic RB Saquon Barkley or top defensive lineman Bradley Chubb, either of which would fill immediate needs.

Why They Would Move Down: It would be hard to turn down a Godfather offer from Buffalo or Arizona or another QB-needy franchise even in lieu of securing a generational talent like Barkley or a front-line menace like Chubb. The Giants have needs throughout the roster, and as great as Barkley or Chubb may be, their presence alone won’t turn things around.

Why They Wouldn’t Move Down: Beyond Gettleman’s reputation for staying put, there’s the issue of quality vs. quantity. There are 12 top-tier talents in this draft: the four QBs (Allen, Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield), Chubb, Barkley, offensive guard Quenton Nelson, LBs Tremaine Edwards and Roquan Smith as well as Denzel Ward, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James in the secondary. If you swap with Buffalo and move down to 12, you’re accepting the last remaining of that dozen as well as a lesser talent near the bottom of the round to go with potentially another pick next year. If you trade with Arizona, you’re missing out on one of those elite players entirely unless someone drops or you move back up. Gettleman will already draw his share of critics for passing on a QB when 37-year-old Eli Manning is on his last legs. If he turns down an entree for an appetizer sampler, it could haunt the franchise for a long time.

Cleveland Browns (picking No. 1 and No. 4 overall)

Background: Armed with four of the first 35 picks, the Browns are in a great position to continue building a bright future with this draft. The team already made a splash in the off-season by trading for the likes of Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry and Damarious Russell while signing Carlos Hyde. We know Cleveland is going QB with its first pick. We just don’t know who. At No. 4, however, things could get interesting.

Why They Would Move Down: The Browns are already guaranteed to fill their biggest need when they use the top spot on a franchise QB. However, like the Giants, the Browns have a plethora of needs even after all the wheeling and dealing they’ve done this spring. With so many teams looking to move up to grab a QB, new Cleveland GM John Dorsey may be tempted to take a deal that allows him to fill those holes now as opposed to leaving Day 1 with two potential studs.    

Why They Wouldn’t Move Down: The Browns have been linked to Barkley in quite a few mocks, assuming the Penn St. runner is still on the board when Cleveland is back on the clock, but the team’s real target should be Chubb. Being able to pair last year’s No. 1 pick Myles Garrett with another freak at the other end may be the final piece to what’s becoming a promising defensive unit. Even if Chubb is gone, a shutdown corner like Denzel Ward or a versatile defender like Minkah Fitzpatrick would be a solid piece as well. Also, unlike the Giants, the Browns have two early second-round picks at their disposal. They could use them to move up to catch a falling star or keep them to continue adding to their young roster. Either way, they aren’t in any position to get desperate.

Denver Broncos (picking No. 5 overall)

Background: SI’s Albert Breer reported last week that the Broncos may move down if the QB they like isn’t there when their time begins. Of course, as with the rest of the teams in this draft, there’s no concrete answer on who that target is. Denver’s alleged need for a QB seems like a lot of smoke considering the team just signed Case Keenum (who, granted, is 30 and coming off his first good season in Minnesota after being left for dead by the Rams), isn’t willing to give up on former first-rounder Paxton Lynch and has last year’s Mr. Irrelevant Chad Kelly waiting in the weeds. Regardless, based on Breer’s report and reading the tea leaves on Denver’s other moves, it would appear taking a QB isn’t as high a priority as it may be for those picking behind them.

Why They Would Trade Down: If you’re not taking a QB, you might as well make way for a team that is. Even if Denver is adamant on adding a young arm, they could still move down a few spots and find one (albeit one they might not be as enamored with). The Broncos have needs on the offensive line, in the secondary and, after the recent release of C.J. Anderson, at running back. There’s a chance of filling two of those three spots in exchange for letting someone else take a quarterback.

Why They Wouldn’t Trade Down: Chubb, Barkley, Nelson and Ward are all potential superstars who would all fill huge holes for the Broncos and none are expected to make it out of the top 10. If anyone understands the importance of a good running game, it’s GM John Elway, who won two Super Bowls thanks in large part to Terrell Davis carrying the water. Elway’s first championship as an executive came on the backs of a great defense. He might be more content with adding a potential building block than settling for an array of picks.

Indianapolis Colts (picking No. 6 overall)



Background: The Colts already won this draft when it snatched three second-round picks from the Jets in exchange for dropping down three spots to #6. The move back all but guarantees one of the Barkley/Chubb/Nelson troika will still be available. Even if they aren’t, they should feel good about having four picks in the first two rounds with the chance to add more.

Why They Would Trade Down: If, by some chance, none of those three names are still on the board, the Colts would be faced with taking one of the other defensive studs that remain or see who wants to come up and grab one of the falling QBs. If one or more teams move into the top 10 looking for a QB and/or Denver passes on one, it increases the chances of the Colts walking away with a defensive playmaker AND getting more picks for their troubles.

Why They Wouldn’t Trade Down: After Denver at 5, no other team in the top 10 needs a QB (and even Denver doesn’t “need” a QB), which means teams may be more willing to see how things play out before talking trade with the Colts. On Indy’s end, they already have three second-round picks and a chance to add to their porous defense. What incentive is there for them to move down unless they want to be extremely greedy? Is an extra pick or two worth missing out on a tackling machine like Smith or a cover guy like Ward? Unless another team blows them away with an offer, it’s hard to justify a deal. If anything, using the extra resources they already have to secure someone like Chubb would be more desirable.

TRADE UP CANDIDATES

Buffalo Bills (picking No. 12 and No. 22)

Background: After putting an end to the Tyrod Taylor era, the Bills are once again in search of their next Jim Kelly. The team signed career backup A.J. McCarron to a cheap deal and kept last year’s fifth-round pick Nathan Peterman on board in hopes he’s better than the guy who threw five interceptions in the first half of his rookie debut. The Bills still surprisingly made the playoffs last season, so they may feel they are a QB away from moving up the ranks.

Why They Would Move Up: Again, the Bills’ QB depth chart is McCarron and Peterman. The case could be made no team needs a QB more than Buffalo. While Buffalo has more holes than it would like to admit, using some draft capital to move up for a Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen or even Baker Mayfield may be worth the price if it means solidifying the sport’s most important position.

Why They Wouldn’t Move Up: As is the case with all the trade-up candidates, it really depends on how in love they are with a particular prospect. Barring something unforeseen, there’s no way all six QBs are taken before the 12th pick. Is Buffalo fine with staying put and taking a “second-tier” prospect like Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph? Also, while QBs will dominate the first half of the draft, it’s worth noting that none are without their warts. There are no Andrew Lucks or Cam Newtons or El Mannings in this draft. There may not even be a Carson Palmer. There’s a chance all six of these guys flop. If you sell the farm to move up for a flawed prospect and he’s not the goods, it could cripple your franchise.  

Arizona Cardinals (picking 15th)

Background: The Cardinals are in a bit more a precarious position than the Bills. Picking at 15, they may have to settle for scraps if they don’t move up. The team replaced the retired Carson Palmer with oft-injured former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon, who famously got leap-frogged by rookie Mitch Trubisky in Chicago last season. Backup Blaine Gabbert was not retained.  Needless to say, this team needs another arm in the worst way and they are almost certainly going to need to move up to get one.

Why They Would Move Up: The Cardinals are in the NFL’s middle ground. With stars like David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Chandler Jones, they have too much talent to do a full rebuild but they are lacking in enough areas to be more than just a player or two away. Bradford has proven he can’t be trusted as literally every team he’s played for has opted for a better alternative. The Rams eventually got Jared Goff. The Eagles landed Carson Wentz. The Vikings had Case Keenum last year before signing Kirk Cousins this offseason. Trusting a soon-to-be 31-year-old with bad knees is not a recipe for success. Whatever price Arizona will have to pay to move up for a QB with prove less costly than putting all their eggs in Bradford’s withered basket

Why They Wouldn’t Move Up: Let’s say it would cost Buffalo three first-round picks and another mid-round selection to move from 12 to the top 6. Imagine what it would cost Arizona to get up that high. A lot will depend on who is still on board by time Oakland is on the clock at 10 and whether or not Buffalo moved up or not. If five teams go quarterback in the first 12 and one of them is Buffalo, the Cardinals may be better served staying put. If they can’t walk away with one of the big six, there’s always Super Bowl MVP and current Eagles backup Nick Foles, who seems to always be around to clean up Bradford’s messes.

New England Patriots (picking No. 23 and No. 31 overall)




Background: Five-time Super Bowl champion and reigning MVP Tom Brady is still playing at a high level, but he’ll also be 41 in August and the team must plan for his eventual retirement. Former Brady heir apparent Jimmy Garoppolo is now in San Francisco and only 32-year-old Brian Hoyer remains behind Tom Terrific. After trading Brandin Cooks to the Rams for the No. 23 overall pick and having an early selection in the second round, the belief is New England will be using one of their first three picks on Brady’s successor.

Why They Would Move Up: I think there’s more smoke than fire to the Patriots/first-round QB talk but the obvious answer is Brady is near the end of his legendary career and this might the Patriots’ best shot at a QB. The team is believed to be infatuated with Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield, both undersized mobile QBs that are direct opposites from the Brady prototype. Mason Rudolph is also being linked to New England. Rudolph played in a spread offense at Oklahoma State so he’d benefit from sitting behind the greatest QB to ever live for a year or two.

Why They Wouldn’t Move Up: Gee, where do we start? For starters, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a team interested in moving down to the bottom half of the draft, even if it means getting a bevy of picks in return. Maybe you talk Washington (picking 13th) or Green Bay (14th) to move down a few spots in exchange for both of your firsts and possibly one of your two second-rounders, but even that seems unlikely and not even worthwhile for the Pats. The larger issue is the team has bigger needs elsewhere. After losing Nate Solder in free agency, the team needs a new left tackle. What’s the point in securing your QB of the future if you can’t protect your QB of the present? Second, the departures of Cooks and Danny Amendola combined with Rob Gronkowski’s uncertain future and the loss of Dion Lewis weakens the offense. That needs to be addressed. Lastly, the Pats made the Super Bowl last season in spite of its terrible defense not because of it. After replacing Malcolm Butler with Jason McCourtey, the unit is even worse. With QBs pushing defensive prospects down the board this year, New England would be better served loading up on guys who will keep them from getting roasted by a journeyman backup QB in the biggest game of the year.

WILD CARDS




L.A. Chargers (picking No. 16) and Pittsburgh Steelers (picking No. 28 overall): I’ll group these two together because they are in same boat. Like the Giants, the Chargers and Steelers are faced with finding an heir apparent for a member of the vaunted 2004 draft. Unlike the Giants, L.A. and Pittsburgh are still considered contenders and might opt for someone who can help them now instead. With Ben Roethlisberger hinting at retirement and Philip Rivers starting to show his age, both of their respective teams will be looking for replacements sooner rather than later. Whether that’s this year remains to be seen.

Baltimore Ravens (picking No. 18 overall): Joe Flacco is 33 years old with a bad back and (surprise, surprise) hasn’t been the same QB since leading the Ravens to a Super Bowl win nearly a decade ago. Sitting in prime Lamar Jackson territory and having only the washed Robert Griffin III behind Jersey Joe, the Ravens may decide now is the time to strike.

New Orleans Saints (picking No. 27 overall): Drew Brees is 39 years old and there’s no contingency plan in place behind him. Brees is still one of the game’s most dynamic passers but his deep ball isn’t what it was. The Saints were a blown pass coverage on a Case Keenum-to-Stefon Diggs prayer away from a Super Bowl run, so they may decide to hold off on a QB this year. They also don’t have a second-round pick (traded to SF in last year’s Alvin Kamara trade on draft day.), so moving back to acquire more picks may be a better idea. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (picking No. 29): The Jags are the sexy pick to follow the Chiefs and Texans’ blueprint from last year and make a big move from the bottom of the draft to the top to nab a QB. Jacksonville already has an exciting young defense, one of the league’s rising stars in RB Leonard Fournette and a decent array of receivers (though they could use some help after losing Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns in free agency). All they need is a solid QB and, as proven in the AFC Championship, Blake Bortles isn’t it. Assuming they could find a team comfortable with moving all the way down to the end of round one, a package of picks in exchange for someone like Josh Rosen or Lamar Jackson could be the final piece of Jacksonville’s championship puzzle.