Sunday, June 16, 2019

Who’s The Third Man?

The Los Angeles Lakers made headlines on Father’s Day weekend by pulling off the sports world’s most predictable trade. After months of clamoring to be in a Lakers uniform, Anthony Davis is headed to the purple and gold in exchange for Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart and three future first-round picks including this year’s No. 4 overall selection.

The deal re-establishes the Lakers as a basketball superpower and premier free agency destination while putting an end to one of basketball’s most drawn out sagas. 

It’s a huge coup for LeBron James and agent Rich Paul, who did everything in their power to secure AD’s path to LA and get King James a suitable No. 2 for the latter part of his career. As for New Orleans, they bid adieu to a former franchise cornerstone just days before ushering in a new one: projected No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson, the explosive forward out of Duke.

With LeBron and AD finally together, the question now becomes who’s next? LeBron’s greatest successes have come when he’s been part of an epic trio and the Lakers have the means to add another star in what is still a loaded free agency class even without the injured Kevin Durant (Achilles) and Klay Thompson (torn ACL).

So, who will it be? Let’s take a look at the candidates.

(Note: Since they are likely to miss all of next season, KD and Klay were withdrawn from consideration. If I had to guess, my gut tells me they both end up back in Golden State.)

Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Hornets

2018-19 Stats: 25.6 points, 5.9 assists, 43.4 percent from the field, 35.6 percent from three.

The Rundown: With Lonzo Ball gone and Rajon Rondo a free agent, there’s a glaring need for a starting point guard in LA and Walker is reportedly the Lakers’ top target. The 29-year-old three-time All-Star spent the last eight seasons in Charlotte and emerged as one of the league’s best point men, but only made the playoffs twice during his Hornets tenure.

Should he sign with the Lakers? No. Walker would likely achieve more postseason success in his first season with the Lakers than he ever did with the Hornets, but he’d also $81 million on the table. That wouldn’t be Kemba’s only sacrifice. After being the Hornets’ No. 1 option and having all the shots to himself for most of his career, Walker would be scrambling for whatever crumbs LeBron and Davis leave behind. The upside is more open looks. The downside is a numbers dip wrapped inside a media circus all in the name of a championship that’s far from promised.

If not, then where? Walker never seemed desperate to leave North Carolina, so safe money is on him staying in Charlotte. However, if he were to leave, the Bronx native should take a long look at being the leader of a young Knicks core that will include Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson and potential third pick R.J. Barrett. 

Kyrie Irving, PG, Boston Celtics

2018-19 Stats: 23.8 points, 6.9 assists, 48.7 percent from the field, 40.1 percent from three

The Rundown: All signs point to things coming to an end this summer for the Boston Celtics and six-time All-Star/Woke Gawd Kyrie Irving after an odd two-year relationship. Irving opted out of his contract, and hours before the AD trade, rumors circulated he’s prepared to sign with Brooklyn. Now, the speculation has shifted to the flat-earth truther’s desire to team with The Brow. 

Should he sign with the Lakers? Yes. This always seemed like a possibility after Kyrie called LeBron this past January to mend fences after Irving demanding out of Cleveland two years ago. Now that AD is also in Hollywood, there’s even more incentive for a reunion with James, who Irving spent three seasons with including a championship tilt in 2015-16. If Kyrie is even remotely interested in coming to LA, he should be the top target over Walker. He’s a better facilitator, has a history with playing with James and is two years younger. The knocks on Uncle Drew is the durability issues that have plagued him since college and his tendency to be a bit immature, but those are minor compared to what he brings to the table. 

If not, then where? Brooklyn might still be the favorite even in the wake of the Lakers nabbing Davis, so this might come down to those two teams unless a surprise contender emerges. 

Kawhi Leonard, SF, Toronto Raptors 

2018-19 Stats: 26.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 49.6 percent from the field, 37.1 percent from three

The Rundown: The Board Man pulled down the greatest rebound of his career when he bounced back from a dramatic , injury-plagued exit in San Antonio to lead the Toronto Raptors to their first NBA championship in his walk year. Now in the discussion for the best player in the league, The Klaw will likely be the most sought-after free agent on the market.

Should he sign with the Lakers? Absolutely not. Leonard just proved he could win a championship without clinging on to a bunch of other stars, so why would he leave legendary status to be a third wheel elsewhere? On top of that, the infamously glib 27-year-old would be an awkward fit beneath LA’s bright lights. 

If not, then where? After becoming a Canadian icon in just one season, it’s hard to imagine Kawhi leaving Toronto. He has a solid running partner in Kyle Lowry and a rising star in Pascal Siakam. If they can keep the core intact, they’ll likely be back in the thick of things next season and for years to come. 

Jimmy Butler, SG, Philadelphia 76ers

2018-19 Stats (combined between Minnesota and Philadelphia): 18.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.8 steals, 46.2 percent from the field, 34.7 percent from three

The Rundown: What once looked like a promising marriage ended in a chaotic divorce between Jimmy Butler and the Minnesota Timberwolves. After 10 games and a famous preseason shouting match, Jimmy Buckets was shipped to Philly and turned the Sixers into a scary title contender. Those championship hopes fell short but Philly gave up too much to just let one of the league’s best two guards walk away. 

Should he sign with the Lakers? Maybe. Minnesota wasn’t as ready to be a contender as initially anticipated and Philly, even if Butler re-signs, faces an uphill battle navigating through a suddenly deep Eastern Conference. If the ultra-competitive Butler prioritizes winning a title, Los Angeles would be his best bet with the rest of the West in shambles. The question becomes whether the headstrong Butler can co-exist with James’ demanding ways. Many of the stars who’ve aligned with LeBron willingly dealt with his brand of leadership in exchange for the chance to compete annually. How would Jimmy’s quick trigger temperament fare with the Subtweet God? How enthused would he be playing alongside the league’s biggest power broker knowing he’s a couple bad arguments from being on the trade block? 

If not, then where? After a rocky start, Butler found his groove in Philly but the Sixers will always be Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons’ team. If Philly or the Lakers aren’t enticing enough, the infamous wine connoisseur could look at LA’s other team or maybe find another star to join him in the Big Apple. A Butler-Kemba-Barrett-Knox-Robinson starting five would be interesting and there’s few more electrifying places to play than the Garden. 

DeMarcus Cousins, C, Golden State Warriors

2018-19 Stats: 16.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 1.5 blocks, 48 percent from the field.

The Rundown: Attempting to make a comeback from a midseason Achilles injury, Cousins responded to a lack of interest in services by taking a discount to ring-chase with the Warriors. Boogie came back in mid-January, appeared in 30 games and put up modest numbers for a fourth option on a team with two elite scorers. Cousins went down again in the playoffs with a quad injury but returned in the Finals. Much healthier than this time last year, Cousins will look to reclaim his title as the league’s best center. 

Should he sign with the Lakers? No. With James, Davis and Kyle Kuzma, the Lakers’ frontcourt is pretty much set unless Boogie wants to take another pay cut to be a role player. He has a connection to Davis from their time together in New Orleans and his departure may have sparked AD’s desire to leave. Still, Cousins will be only 29 in August and will have the latter part of his career to latch onto others for a ring. If he’s healthy and ready to be dominant, there are better options out there. 

If not, then where? Depending on their cap situations, both Eastern Conference finalists could use a big man if their respective veteran rentals (Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol) leave. A reunion with former college teammate John Wall in Washington would be....interesting. But with KD and Klay out of the picture next season, a return to Golden State with a promise of a bigger role isn’t a bad idea.

Chris Paul, PG, Houston Rockets

2018-19 Stats: 15.6 points, 8.2 assists, two steals, 41.9 percent from the field and 35.8 percent from three.

The Rundown: Paul isn’t a free agent, but according to ESPN loudmouth Stephen A. Smith, there are whispers that the nine-time All-Star wants out of Houston. The Lakers don’t have much in terms of trade chips after selling the farm for Davis but the Rockets’ asking price for a 34-year-old point guard on the downside of his career can’t be that high. CP3 would be a distant third behind Kemba Walker and Kyrie Irving on the list of point guard options, but his friendship with LeBron makes him a possibility. 

Should he go to the Lakers? No. This move makes sense for Paul but not for the Lakers. Paul is owed over $120 million over the next three seasons, which would cripple the Lakers financially and would not be worth the risk for a player who has struggled to stay healthy lately and has been to the conference finals once in 14 seasons. 

If not, then where? Whatever Paul’s issue is in Houston is, it would be in his best interest to let it go. No contender is going to be willing to take on his contract in exchange for the services of a diminished All-Star and who knows how happy The Point God would be on a rebuilding team if he isn’t content with a very good Rockets squad. However, if he absolutely wants out, two teams come to mind: The Boston Celtics and New York Knicks. If the Knicks completely strike out in free agency, trying to steal Paul for 50 cents on the dollar wouldn’t be a terrible consolation prize and would probably fall in line with everything the Knicks have done over the past decade. With Boston potentially losing Kyrie Irving and Terry Rozier, a Paul trade is worth considering depending on whether Al Horford decides to stay or go as well. 

Thursday, April 25, 2019

2019 NFL Mock Draft

I’ll skip the preamble and get right into how I see the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft, which takes place on April 25 in Nashville (for some reason), shaking out.

1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma 

Let me start out by saying this is a mistake. It’s not because I think Kyler Murray will be a bust. Guys who throw for 4,300 yards and 50+ TD while rushing for another stack don’t come around very often. I just don’t believe in using a first-round pick (let alone the first overall) on a QB when you drafted one in the first round last year. It’s too early to give up on Josh Rosen, and the Cardinals have plenty of needs elsewhere, especially on defense where there’s a ton of elite talent in this class. There’s a 50-50 chance Murray isn’t the pick here, but if he is, there’s going to be immense pressure on him to make Arizona not look foolish here. 

2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State

Quinnen Williams might be the better fit (and ultimately the better player) but all signs point to Bosa being the pick here. Much like his Pro Bowl brother Joey, Nick is a complete defensive end who can be a force against the run or the pass. He’ll pair with Dee Ford to give opposing QBs nightmares on the outside. Bosa had some injury and maturity issues in college, but neither should impact his stock much, if at all. 

TRADE! The New York Jets trade the 3rd overall pick to the Atlanta Falcons for the 14th overall pick, a 2019 second-round pick and a 2020 first-round pick. 

The Jets desperate want to move down from the No. 3 spot, and many expect any team willing to meet their demands would do so for a quarterback. However, the defensive talent in this draft supersedes any passer not named Kyler Murray and the Falcons are no strangers to making a bold move to get someone they covet. In 2011, they moved up 21 spots to take Julio Jones, a move that helped turn the team into a contender. 

3. Atlanta Falcons (from NYJ): Ed Oliver, DT, Houston

Three years removed from a Super Bowl appearance, the Falcons are more a victim of circumstance than a team in need of a talent infusion. There’s plenty of buzz surrounding their love for Ed Oliver, and with the Houston DT a lock to go top-five, Atlanta needs to aim high to land him. In the short-term, he’ll link with Vic Beasley and Grady Jarrett to bolster Atlanta’s front seven. Long-term, he can replace Jarrett, who is seeking a new contract, and be a disruptive force inside for the next decade. 

4. Oakland Raiders: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama 

It’s hard to predict what Oakland will do here or anywhere else in the draft. Jon Gruden is the king of irrational confidence and Mike Mayock is a first-time GM. That being said, if Williams is still on the board when the Raiders are on the clock and they pass on him, Gruden and Mayock should send themselves home. Williams is a 300-pound wrecking ball who ran a 4.8 40 at the combine. He has the chance to be an interior menace of John Randle/Aaron Donald proportions. He doesn’t fill the Raiders need for an edge rusher after foolishly trading away Khalil Mack last season but he’s a hell of a consolation price. 

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Devin White, LB, LSU 

This seems a bit high for an off-ball linebacker, but the Bucs have a need for a sideline-to-sideline terror after letting Kwon Alexander walk this spring. White ran a 4.4 40, the fastest of any linebacker ever, and is a former Dick Butkus award winner. He won’t give Tampa the pass-rushing boost they need, but defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will find a way to unleash him just the same. 

6. New York Giants: Josh Allen, DE, Kentucky 

It’s a shame the draft isn’t being held in New York because the drama surrounding both local teams would make for good television. After purging the roster of young talent while continuing to throw support behind decaying QB Eli Manning, GM Dave Gettleman punctured more holes in a roster that already had plenty. Allen falling here would be a steal and a welcomed distraction from the fact Gettleman shipped two of his best pass-rushers in back-to-back offseasons. Still, this team needs a quarterback, and more than that, they need the right quarterback. Until he’s found, the temperature under Gettleman’s seat will remain hot. 

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: TJ Hockenson, TE, Iowa 

I’m willing to be wrong here. Conventional wisdom suggests the Jaguars will attempt to protect their $88 million investment in Nick Foles by drafting any of the bevy of offensive lineman still on the board. However, even with time to throw, Foles doesn’t have a go-to guy. If Hockenson is in the Gronk-Kelce-Kittle master class of tight ends, it would make sense to pair him with a QB who loves throwing to that position. 

TRADE! The Detroit Lions trade the No. 8 overall pick to the Washington Redskins for the No. 15 overall pick and a 2019 third-round pick.

The Lions haven’t hidden their desire to move down to acquire more picks while word out of DC is Redskins owner Dan Snyder is taking control of the first round with his eyes on snagging a QB. You know what that means? Something crazy is going to happen. Moving up to 8 to grab any of the three remaining QBs makes sense (as would staying put and seeing if one falls) but I wouldn’t rule out Snyder moving even higher if it means getting what he wants. 

8. Washington Redskins: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

You would think throwing for 4,800 yards and 54 touchdowns against top-level competition would draw a ton of interest, but opinions of Dwayne Haskins seem to be all over the place. Some think he’s a prototypical passer and the most pro-ready signal caller in the draft while others believe he’s nothing more than media hype. With Alex Smith’s career likely over, Colt McCoy recovering from a broken leg and Case Keenum set to be the starter, the Redskins can’t afford to pick nits when it comes to finding a long-term answer at QB. Whether you believe Haskins is the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th best QB in this draft, he’s better than whatever Washington currently has on the roster. 

TRADE! The Buffalo Bills trade the 9th overall pick to the New York Giants for the 17th overall pick, a 2019 fourth-round pick and two 2019 fifth-round picks. 

With two QBs already off the board and some needy teams (Denver, Cincinnati, Miami) standing in between them, Giants GM Dave Gettleman does what he does best: trade up. 

9. New York Giants (from BUF): Daniel Jones, QB, Duke

The Giants reportedly really, really, really love Daniel Jones. They might even consider him at 6 depending on how the chips in front of them fall. Upon first glance, it’s easy to see why New York is so infatuated. Jones is big (6’5, 225), can make plays with his arm or his feet and he came up under the same coach who developed both Manning brothers (David Cutcliffe). Legendary scout Gil Brandt compared Jones to Peyton Manning, which is as big of a stretch as you can get, but it might be enough to get him drafted higher than his talent should allow. Jones isn’t the ninth-best player in the draft, but the Giants are desperate. Gettleman, for all his “I don’t care what people think” bravado, knows he can’t leave this draft without a successor for a 38-year-old QB whose been on the decline for years now. The Giants get their guy, and all he has to do is live up to being one Manning while replacing the other. 

TRADE! Denver Broncos trade the No. 10 overall pick to the Carolina Panthers for the No. 16 overall pick, a 2019 third-round pick and a 2019 fifth-round pick.

With needs at inside linebacker, quarterback and along the offensive line, the Broncos would be wise to move down a few spots in order to fill more holes, even if it means missing out on rumored target Drew Lock. The Panthers, meanwhile, are reportedly looking to move up to get Cam Newton some much-needed protection. Four teams trading into the top 10 seems a bit wild, but this has the makings of being a wild draft. 

10. Carolina Panthers (from DEN): Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State

The past few years haven’t been kind to Cam Newton. Injuries to the talent around him combined with playing behind a turnstile offensive line led to an unnecessary amount of punishment for the Panthers QB. The result is Newton undergoing his second shoulder surgery in as many years. If Newton, who turns 30 in May, is to be Carolina’s franchise face in the short term or long term, he needs someone who will keep him off his back. Enter Dillard, a mammoth 6’5”, 315-pound wall of a man who is considered the best pass protector in this draft. Dillard’s presence allows the returning Daryl Williams to stay on the right side where he’s best suited and might give Cam a chance at seeing age-35 in an NFL uniform.

11. Cincinnati Bengals: Devin Bush, LB, Michigan 

With declining QB Andy Dalton set to turn 32 in October and owed $34 million over the next two seasons, the Bengals   could be in the market for a new signal caller. Instead, they snag one of the best options in a thin LB class. Cincinnati’s defense needed a new man in the middle even before bidding adieu to problem child Vontaze Burfict this offseason, and Bush is the perfect replacement. He’s on the smaller side (5’11”, 234 lbs), but he’s fast (4.43 40) with the instincts to make an impact in coverage or the run game. 

12. Green Bay Packers: Jonah Williams, G/T, Alabama 

The Packers filled holes on the defensive side of the ball but still have to fix its biggest need: keeping Aaron Rodgers upright. Potential championship seasons have been derailed by Green Bay’s failure to protect one of the league’s best QBs. With needs at guard and tackle, it makes sense to draft someone who can play either spot. Williams played both tackle spots and guard while at Alabama and his versatility could land him in the top-10 if a QB run doesn’t push him down. He could easily fill in at either guard spot for the Packers then slide over to right tackle once the team lets Bryan Bulaga walk after the season. 

13. Miami Dolphins: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri

Initially, it seemed like Miami would wait on a QB and use this draft to address other needs but that’s a pretty risky gamble for a team that hasn’t had a franchise passer since Dan Marino retired. Lock isn’t a can’t-miss product by any means. He’s the kind of strong-armed gunslinger that makes coaches and fans alike nervous. 10 years ago, you might have called Lock another “next Brett Favre” clone. Today, the best-case scenario for Lock is he’s Jay Cutler with a better head on his shoulders. If Miami can build around him, he has a shot at bringing hope to South Beach for the first time in decades. 

14. New York Jets (from ATL): Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida 

The Jets may regret moving down and passing on a potential defensive cornerstone at the top of the draft, but landing a possible top-10 talent in Taylor here is a nice get. Taylor is a road-grading mauler who will make life easier for Le’Veon Bell and Sam Darnold. He doesn’t play the glitzier left side, which is why he might not go as high as someone like Dillard but he has the potential to be a staple on the right side for the next decade. 

15. Detroit Lions (from WSH): Brian Burns, DE, Boston College

Sure, the Lions paid Trey Flowers big money to be the catalyst of Matt Patricia’s defense, but why stop there? Detroit gets to face Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins twice a year. You need all the pass rush you can get. Burns proved he could bulk up and still be the same speed demon who notched 23 sacks in three years at BC when he ran a 4.5 40 at 249 pounds. With Montez Sweat (heart condition) and Rashan Gary (shoulder) dealing with injury red flags, Burns could leapfrog them up the ranks. 

16. Denver Broncos: Cody Ford, G/T, Oklahoma

There’s going to be temptation to take a quarterback in light of Joe Flacco being....well, Joe Flacco. Regardless of who is behind center, improving the interior of the line is key, especially after losing three starters in free agency. Cody Ford moved around a bit at Oklahoma while blocking for the likes of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. That will probably remain the case in the pros, and with Mike Munchak in charge of his development, Ford could emerge as one of the gems of this draft. 

17. Buffalo Bills (from NYG via CLE): Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan 

Both of Buffalo’s lines are a work in progress. QB Josh Allen spent most of his rookie season under duress behind a front five that couldn’t keep the pocket clean. On defense, Kyle Williams retired, Jerry Hughes is in a contract year and Trent Murphy didn’t contribute much. A labral tear and a lack of college production could cause Gary to drop despite his freakish athleticism but his ability to play inside or outside would benefit a Bills team in need of both. 

18. Minnesota Vikings: Garrett Bradbury, C, North Carolina State

According to Pro Football Focus, each of the Vikings’ five starters along the offensive line were a liability in pass protection, which is problematic when you’ve spent $84 million on a quarterback. Kirk Cousins wasn’t the only affected by poor line play. Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray both found room to run hard to come by as Minnesota fielded one of the league’s worst rushing attacks. Using a first-round pick on an interior lineman isn’t sexy, but Vikings fans should remember how important Steve Hutchinson was during his tenure. Bradbury might not be Hutchinson but he’s a plug-and-play starter on a line leaking with holes. 

19. Tennessee Titans: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa

Four years after being selected with No. 2 overall pick, Marcus Mariota has yet to become the dual-threat superstar he was at Oregon. Injuries have played a role in Mariota’s stunted growth, but a lack of talent around him is equally responsible. The Titans haven’t invested much draft capital on receiving options beyond Corey Davis, who has struggled with his own consistency issues. With Delanie Walker set to turn 35 in August and coming off a major ankle injury, it would make sense to find a potential replacement. Fant isn’t getting the same love as his college teammate, TJ Hockenson, but he’s an amazing athlete and reliable target. He paced all tight ends at the combine in 40 time (4.5), broad jump (127 inches), vertical jump (39.5 inches), three-cone (6.8 seconds) and 60-yard dash (11.5). He’s the kind of big-play threat Tennessee sorely lacks in the passing game. 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Byron Murphy, CB, Washington 

With the Steelers now having to go up against AJ Green, Odell Beckham Jr. and whoever the Ravens tab as their go-to receiver twice a year, the need for a true shutdown corner is heightened. The team signed Steven Nelson to pair with Joe Haden, but Haden is on the wrong side of 30 and going into his walk year. There’s debate over who the top corner is in this draft. It could be LSU’s Greedy Williams or Georgia’s DeAndre Baker or Murphy, who had seven interceptions in 20 games for UW. Whether they go corner or another pass rusher, Pittsburgh must adapt to a suddenly pass-happy AFC North. 

21. Seattle Seahawks: Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State 

Even after trading DE Frank Clark to Kansas City for the 29th overall pick, a move down can’t be ruled out. The Seahawks only have five picks in this year’s draft and one of them will have to be spent on Clark’s replacement. That man could be Sweat, whose amazing combine is likely nullified by a concerning heart condition. If Sweat’s heart holds up, his combination of size (6’6, 260lbs), speed  (4.4 40) and production (12 sacks last season) could make him the next impact player on a defense that continues to churn them out.

22. Baltimore Ravens: Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma

There was a time where Ole Miss speedster DK Metcalf seemed destined to be the first WR off the board but poor agility drills and durability concerns have caused other receivers to potentially surpass him. One of those players is Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, cousin of All-Pro wideout Antonio Brown. Brown is a DeSean Jackson-like burner who makes up for his lack of size (5’9”, 166 pounds) by being a dangerous open-field playmaker who can take any pass to the house. The Ravens also have needs at linebacker, pass-rusher and on the interior of the offensive line, but the need to get Lamar Jackson some help, whether it’s Brown or Metcalf or (insert name here), is paramount to any of those issues. 

TRADE! Houston Texans trade the No. 23 overall pick to the New England Patriots for the No. 32 overall pick, a 2019 fourth-round pick and a 2019 seventh-round pick. 

The Texans need an offensive tackle but are reportedly unwilling to move up for one despite having the ammo to do so. The Patriots are more likely to trade out of the first round, but after taking so many hits on the defensive line and with 12 picks at their disposal, this might be the year they change directions. 

23. New England Patriots (from HOU): Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson

After losing Trey Flowers, Malcolm Brown and Danny Shelton in the off-season, an already-thin Patriots defensive line suddenly looks anemic. Michael Bennett was acquired to offset some of the losses, but he’s 33 and only under contract through 2020. Ferrell has a similar build (6’4, 264 lbs) as the departed Flowers (6’2”, 265) and is coming off a monsterous season where he notched 11.5 sacks while forcing three fumbles. A lot has been said about the depth of defensive line talent in this draft but there’s a significant drop after the second wave of players (Sweat/Ferrell/Dexter Lawrence/Jerry Tillery) come off the board toward the end of the round. If the Patriots want a difference maker, they’ll probably have to move up to get one.

24. Oakland Raiders (from CHI): Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama 

There will be special attention paid to this pick because it’s the first of the ones acquired in the Khalil Mack trade. Oakland filled some problem areas through trade and free agency but running back was not one of them. With Marshawn Lynch retiring, there’s an opening for a bellcow back who can take pressure off Derek Carr (or whoever Gruden settles on as his QB). Jacobs is considered the best of a poor running back class. He’s a 5’10”, 210-pound wrecking ball with a Frank Gore-ish ability to run with power or speed while still being able to make plays in space. He has just 251 carries in two seasons after playing behind Damien Harris at Bama, which is either a good thing or a bad thing depending on where you stand on collegiate workloads, which means he shouldn’t have a lot of wear and tear on him. 

25. Philadelphia Eagles: Chris Lindstrom, G, Boston College 

The Eagles’ strength is in their offensive line, and with Nick Foles no longer around for relief, protecting Carson Wentz is an even higher priority. With the exception of right tackle Lane Johnson, a case can be made for an upgrade at each of the four remaining spots on the line. Center Jason Kelce has flirted with retiring. Left tackle Jason Peters, who turned 37 in January, probably isn’t far behind him. Guard Brandon Brooks tore his Achilles in the playoffs and Issac Seumalo is replaceable on the other side. There’s a contingency plan in place but adding the draft’s best guard in Lindstrom isn’t a terrible idea. 

26. Indianapolis Colts: Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame

The Colts turn things around last season thanks in large part to a solid draft led by G Quentin Nelson and Defensive Rookie of the Year Darius Leonard. They could keep that momentum going with Tillery, a 6’6”, 295 pound monster who posted the highest pass-rushing scores among defensive tackles last season according to PFF and had a field day at the Combine despite working out with a torn labrum. Adding Tillery to a defensive line that also includes Justin Houston and Jabaal Sheard would make life tough for opposing quarterbacks. 

27. Oakland Raiders (from DAL): Greedy Williams, CB, LSU 

Once considered the draft’s top corner and a potential top-10 pick, Greedy Williams’ status is now uncertain. There’s concerns his tall but lanky frame (6’2”, 185) will make him a poor tackler. The flip side to that is he’s a freakish athlete with 4.3 speed who allowed the lowest catch percentage in the SEC last season. With a glaring need for a shutdown corner, the Raiders might overlook Williams’ inability to get physical if it means putting the clamps on the likes of Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen. If not, they could look at Temple’s Rock Ya-Sin or Georgia’s DeAndre Baker.

28. 

Sunday, January 27, 2019

Ready to Rumble

Among WWE pay-per-views, WrestleMania gets the lion’s share of the attention. And why shouldn’t it? It’s “The Showcase of Immortals”, “The Show of Shows”, “The Grandest Stage of Them All”.

However, in terms of sheer excitement and fun, nothing tops the company’s annual January free-for-all: Royal Rumble. It’s a simple concept that even the most casual of viewers can comprehend. 30 men (and now women), starting with two combatants with a new one joining every 90 seconds. If you go over the top rope with both feet hitting the floor, you lose and the last person standing goes to WrestleMania to face the champion of their choosing.

The match has always been used to develop up-and-comers, reintroduce returning stars and instill some nostalgia with a surprise entrant or two. Given the way it’s been booked, this year’s edition likely won’t be high on unpredictability but should be a blast just the same.

With the event hours away, I wrote this guide to help you get ready. As a classic gentleman, I’ll start with the ladies first. 

Women’s Royal Rumble Preview


Who Should Win: Bayley. The company has spent months building up the Ronda Rousey-Becky Lynch-Charlotte Flair feud that is sure to culminate in a WrestleMania main event. However, if the reports of Rousey taking a hiatus after Mania are true, it would make more sense to have her drop the title to Sasha Banks tonight and build up a suitable contender for The Boss.

And who better than her best friend Bayley? For those who remember Banks and Bayley’s matches at NXT, a potential title bout between the two would be the female equivalent of Savage-Steamboat or Bret vs Shawn (minus the bad blood and infidelity rumors). The company can still have its Rousey-Charlotte-Becky triple threat (Rousey had the biggest match at last year’s Mania without being anywhere near the title) while fans wanting to see a true classic get to see arguably the two best go at it with something on the line again. 

Worst-Case Scenario Winner: Nia Jax. There are obviously a lot of ways WWE could ruin this match but the best one among likely contenders would be to give the win to The Irresistible Force. Few stars have squandered their momentum from last year’s WrestleMania quite like Jax, who left New Orleans with her first women’s title after defeating Alexa Bliss. Since then, she’s been a source of derision for fans and fellow wrestlers alike due to her sloppy in-ring technique, her boring promos and the flip-flopping between face and heel. Her inadvertent punch that broke Becky Lynch’s face, ruining the Survivor Series main event between Lynch and Rousey, is a botch The Rock’s cousin will probably never live down.

In addition to all her heat, a win at the Rumble doesn’t make much sense. There just isn’t a clamoring for a third Jax-Rousey PPV match nor is Jax vs Banks Mania worthy. The likely scenario is they save Jax for other battle Royal in April. 

Dark Horse: Becky Lynch. Nobody had a more impactful 2018 than The Man, and if Becky weren’t already contending for the Smackdown title against Asuka tonight, she’d likely be the favorite to win the Rumble. She’s a dark horse because it’s still unknown whether she’ll even be in the match if she loses to Asuka earlier in the night. From a storyline standpoint, Lynch competing and possibly winning the Rumble after having a classic title match would continue her bad ass run. The poster for the women’s Rumble has 23 ladies on it, which mean the other seven will be surprises (WWE announced they were going to tweet the entrants last week but I ignored it because that seemed like a stupid idea. If all 30 are announced already, bare with me). A good number of the mysterious seven will be from NXT with a couple legends sprinkled in. Maybe Lynch finds a way in. Maybe they use the months leading up to Mania to write her Rousey storyline, but she’s been too good to count her out. 

Best Potential Show-stealer: Ember Moon. Naomi had one of the best moments of last year’s Rumble when she tight-roped the barricade and used a office chair to wheel herself back into the ring to avoid elimination. So, she’s a contender here, as well. Athletic competitors like Naomi or Kofi Kingston or Rey Mysterio always show out in this event and my money is on Moon, who had a pretty good showing last year with one arm. 

While the Rumble always benefits the winner the most, there’s always a handful of people who build off their performance in January to carry into the rest of the year. If WWE is going to stick with its “New Faces, New Opportunities” mantra it sold the fans after Raw’s ratings went into the tank, then using the Rumble to showcase a former NXT champion and arguably the most athletic woman on Raw wouldn’t be the worst idea. 

Best Possible Surprise Entrant: Shayna Bazeler. WWE justifiably brought out a lot of its legends last year for the inaugural ladies’ battle royal, so there aren’t many left to bring out this year. If Paige is somehow given the green light to wrestle again, she would probably get the biggest pop of the night. There was some AJ Lee talk that got extinguished pretty fast. With most of the entrants known, there’s not much room for surprises (which is why announcing the entrants was stupid). You can give this spot to any of the NXT ladies: Bazeler, Rhea Ripley, Bianca Bel Air, Toni Storm. I’ll go with Shayna simply because she’s the champ and the slim chance of a battle between her and Rousey would be intriguing.

Best Surprise Entrant That Won’t Happen: Sable. The wrestling world hasn’t seen Sable since 2004, which is surprising given she’s married to one of the biggest stars in the company and WWE loves using wrestling couples in storylines. However, it’s not that surprising when you consider Sable left the company on bad terms then sued them for sexual harassment shortly after. She’s basically CM Punk without the chants and wrestling acumen. She also probably hasn’t wrestled since leaving wrestling and it might be worth the ring rust to put a 51-year-old woman in there for a couple minutes. 

Still, Brock has shown to have some sway and if he were to say “How about throwing my wife in the Rumble?”, Vince might at least consider it. 

Predicted Final Four: Charlotte-Carmella-Bayley-Ruby Riot. Assuming Lynch isn’t included, Charlotte is the prohibitive favorite. Carmella won the No. 30 spot via the Mixed Match Challenge, so she should be there at the end by default. Bayley seems poised to fill the workhorse role with three of the division’s biggest names out and Riot is up there with Ember Moon on the list of 2019 breakout stars. I also wouldn’t rule out Zelina Vega making a spirited run here. 

Who Will Win: Charlotte. There’s only two ways I can envision this not ending with Charlotte’s hand raised:

  1. Lynch and Rousey both lose their title matches, and one or both screws Charlotte, which will set them up for the next three months. 
  2. Lynch is one of the 30 women and she wins the Rumble.
That’s it. That’s the list. As talented as this crop of women are, there are very few that make sense from a story standpoint, and the ones that do (Moon, Riot, Bayley, Naomi, Kairi Sane), probably aren’t getting their WrestleMania moment this year. Charlotte has been the ace WWE has turned to when they need a big match and I don’t see that changing here. 

Men’s Royal Rumble 

Who Should Win: Drew McIntyre. McIntyre and Seth Rollins are the favorites, and while I have no issue with Rollins winning, a match between him and Lesnar just seems too similar to the one Brock is about to have with Finn Balor. The whole underdog/It’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog/David vs Goliath angle is cool until you realize Lesnar already did it with Daniel Bryan at Survivor Series and Balor at the Rumble. McIntyre, while also a heel, at least offers up a different kind of foil for The Beast Incarnate. 

Worst-Case Scenario Winner: Braun Strowman. It’s possible that the hype surrounding McIntyre and Rollins is a smokescreen for the inevitable Strowman-Lesnar rematch of their stinker at Crown Jewel. Strowman is going to get his chance to be champion and history suggests he’ll be a dominant one, but I just don’t think Lesnar-Strowman 2 is WrestleMania main event worthy. Of course, the same could be said about Lesnar’s battles with Roman Reigns, and that didn’t stop creative from making it happen over and over again. 

Dark Horse: Rey Mysterio. The odds favor the winner of the Rumble being a superstar from Raw (McIntyre, Rollins, Braun, maybe even Lashley), but what if WWE threw us a curveball and went with a Smackdown winner for the third year in a row? 

The problem with that scenario is that, while Daniel Bryan’s heel turn has been amazing, it left the show without a viable face to root for that wasn’t named AJ Styles. 

  • Shinsuke Nakamura: heel
  • Miz: heel
  • Randy Orton: heel
  • Andrade: heel
  • Samoa Joe: heel
  • Big Show: heel...or face...depends what week it is.
Mysterio’s return has gone better than expected considering he’s 44, has a long injury history and relies on his athleticism to be competitive. If Bryan’s feud with Styles ends before Mania, he’s going to need a new opponent and Mysterio has won this thing before. Would it make sense? No. Has that stopped WWE before? Also no. But what better way to put a bow on a future Hall of Fame career than to give him one more WrestleMania moment before riding off in the sunset?

Best Potential Show-Stealer: Mustafa Ali. Kofi Kingston steals the show every January so it would be unfair to put him here. In fact, this should be the Kofi Kingston Award. With Raw’s top contenders pretty much settled, the focus turns to Smackdown to match their rival brand. Andrade is going to have a big night. Mysterio should, too. Another option is Mustafa Ali, who earned his blue stripes with a excellent match against Bryan on Smackdown and is now embroiled in a feud with Samoa Joe, who will definitely be present at the Rumble. This event is always good for continuing storylines and I expect Joe and Mustafa to play a classic cat-and-mouse game while Ali takes some pages out of Kofi’s playbook with some high-flying theatrics. 

Best Possible Surprise Return: Bray Wyatt. I don’t know if this would be much of a surprise. Reports surfaced that Wyatt is ready to come off injured reserve, and with reports also surfacing that Kevin Owens and Sami Zayn are being held out til after Mania, The Eater of Worlds becomes the most interesting potential surprise. Doubling-down on that, a Wyatt Family reunion culminating in a Bray win wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world (albeit highly unlikely). The other possible candidate would be Roman Reigns, who has been battling leukemia since last fall. As much as well root for The Big Dog’s speedy recovery, this might be a little too soon. 

Also, while it won’t happen, I’d absolutely welcome any of the New Day guys taking this one, particularly Xavier Woods. 

Meanwhile, how odd is a Rumble that will be potentially without Reigns, John Cena, Daniel Bryan, AJ Styles, Undertaker and Lesnar? 

Best Surprise Entrant That Won’t Happen: CM Punk. It seems like a waste to even write this since a Punk return will likely never happen. There was some buzz about a Punk sighting in Phoenix this weekend but that was apparently a troll job using an old airport photo of him and his wife, AJ Lee. Punk has pretty much told anyone bold enough to ask if he’ll be at the Rumble to stick it and that matches with his stance on returning to wrestling since his 2014 departure.

However, today is five years to the day of Punk’s last match in a WWE ring and what better way to return than to the event that was his final straw? 

While it’s unlikely to happen, it doesn’t hurt to dream and Punk will be there in spirit as chants of his name will likely echo through Chase Field. 

Projected Final Four: Rollins-McIntyre-Andrade-Mysterio. Like Becky Lynch, Braun’s uncertain status for the Rumble (he’s not on any of the promo posters and the storyline doesn’t have him in the match as of the go-home show) makes it hard to project where he’ll finish. Ultimately, this is going to come down to Rollins and McIntrye with the scant hope of a Smackdown win looming. R-Truth is set to be the last man in, but I can see a scenario where he’s gone before the final four. The finish to this match has some run-in potential, with Braun and Dean Ambrose both engaged in rivalries with the two favorites. 

Who Will Win: Seth Rollins. Rollins is the company’s best all-around performer and keeping him out of the main event after he killed it all last year just seems dumb. As tired as the Big Man vs Little Man backdrop has become, a Rollins-Lesnar match is the best possible outcome and would be infinitely more entertaining than Strowman or even McIntyre challenging.