Week 11 Picks

Last Week: 10-4

Season: 82-64-4

Titans (+3.5) over Packers

The Packers are coming off an upset win over the Cowboys thanks to a combination of bad play-calling, costly mistakes and the element of surprise. If Christian Watson’s three-touchdown breakout wasn’t a fluke, Green Bay has a shot at turning things around, but Tennessee isn’t foolish enough to get into a shootout with the Packers like Dallas did. The Titans will look to control the clock with Derrick Henry and the return of DT Jeffrey Simmons gives them an X-factor on defense. Titans crush the Packers’ momentum before it starts and pull off the “upset”.


Bears (+3.5) over Falcons

The Bears are currently at the bottom of the NFC standings, and yet, one win separates these two teams. Justin Fields is arguably the best player on the field out of both squads (at least until Atlanta figures out what to do with Kyle Pitts and Drake London), so I’m leaning towards Chicago.

Bills (-7.5) over Browns

Nothing says “home game” like having a team from Buffalo play a team from the Midwest in Detroit but six feet of snow in west New York forced the league’s hand. Once the kings of the AFC, the Bills are on a two-game losing streak and desperately need this one to take the division back from Miami.

Eagles (-6.5) over Colts

Jeff Saturday winning his coaching debut probably has more to do with how putrid Las Vegas is than any revelations he’s offering on the sidelines, but if he can upset the 8-1 Eagles, they should name the Coach of the Year award after him. I don’t see that happening though.

Jets (+3.5) over Patriots

The Patriots are the Jets’ only loss since late September and but Gang Green is coming off a bye week after a huge upset over Buffalo. They’re rested and momentum is on their side. New York evens the series here.

Rams (+2.5) over Saints

With Cooper Kupp pretty much done for the season and the Rams at 3-6, I was ready to write off the defending champs, but this Saints team is somehow worse and Dennis Allen’s insistence on sticking with Andy Dalton at QB should cost him his job. Both of these teams suck but I’ll take the points.

Giants (-3.5) over Lions

Oddsmakers still don’t believe in the Giants, hence the low spread at home against the putrid Lions. Maybe it’s a lack of faith in the league’s 22nd-ranked scoring offense? Maybe it’s because Danny Dimes is a basically a rich man’s Taysom Hill? Maybe they still believe in Detroit? Regardless of the reason, even New York’s Tecmo Bowl offense should be able to move the ball on one of the worst defensive units in football.

Ravens (-12.5) over Panthers

The three of you who read this piece every week know how leery I am of double-digit spreads but banking on Baker Mayfield to keep this game close is a fool’s errand. I’d be shocked if Baltimore doesn’t rout here.

Commanders (-3) over Texans

Despite everything that’s happened on and off the field, Washington is still in the playoff mix. As for Houston, only pride stands between the Texans and the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft.

Raiders (+2.5) over Broncos

This is a toss-up between two colossal disappointments but both Derek Carr and Josh McDaniels are playing to keep their jobs next season, so desperation is on their side.

Vikings (+1.5) over Cowboys

For weeks, I knocked the Vikings as a team that padded its record on beating bad teams. Then, they beat Buffalo in arguably the best game of the season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys choked against a Packers team that’s found ways to lose all season. If Dallas couldn’t stop rookie Christian Watson, what hope do they have against Justin Jefferson?

Bengals (-3.5) over Steelers

The lone hope for the Steelers is TJ Watt disrupts Cincinnati’s passing game enough to keep this close. Otherwise, this is going to get ugly.

Chargers (+5.5) over Chiefs

I don’t know why I still believe in the Chargers, who haven’t beaten a good team all season, but they always play the Chiefs hard and they are getting some weapons back while KC is short-handed. Chiefs win but LA keeps it close.

Niners (-8) over Cardinals

The only question about this game is whether Kyler Murray plays or not. If he suits up, Arizona could, at the very least, cover against a San Fran team still figuring things out offensively. If it’s Colt McCoy, it’s over by halftime.

Week 10 Picks

 Last Week: 8-4-1

Season: 72-60-4

Falcons (-2.5) over Panthers

There’s little incentive for Carolina to win this game and any movement in Baker Mayfield’s direction as the starting QB would indicate they’re going into the tank. Falcons should win but the bigger issue is just how horrid this TNF slate has been thus far.

Buccaneers (-2.5) over Seahawks

Geno Smith is one of the six quarterbacks Tom Brady will likely have to face off against in the playoffs, so a win here would be a huge boost to his confidence and a huge L for everyone who got jokes off at the 45-year-old’s expense this season.

Also, on paper, the first regular season NFL game in Germany looks better than anything the league has sent to London. Read into that what you will.

Vikings (+6.5) over Bills

The Vikings’ good fortune continues as, just when it looked like they were going to face real competition for the first time this season, Bills star QB Josh Allen might sit this one out. If Allen can’t go, Buffalo’s explosive offense received a massive downgrade with Case Keenum behind center, opening the door for a Minnesota upset.

(Update: Allen is expected to start.)

Bears (-3) over Lions

Given the state of the rest of the NFC and the rise of QB Justin Fields, you can’t rule out the Bears making a run towards a playoff spot. They’re 1.5 games behind San Francisco for the 7th seed and now get a Detroit team that lost the momentum it showed earlier in the season.

Titans (-2.5) over Broncos

This could be a potential trap game for the Titans. The Broncos are sneaky good on defense, Ryan Tannehill might be a little rusty after missing the last two games and Tennessee plays again in four days. I’m still taking Tennessee but I don’t feel good about it.

Chiefs (-9.5) over Jaguars

Chiefs have a shot at the AFC’s one seed and Jacksonville hasn’t been good in months. Any chance of this game being close is contingent on Trevor Lawrence showing the skills that made him a No. 1 overall pick.

Dolphins (-3.5) over Browns

Miami hasn’t lost since getting Tua back while Cleveland is coming off its first win since September. The Browns’ best chance is unleashing their one-two punch on the ground to keep the Dolphins’ O off the field.

Giants (-2.5) over Texans

The Texans are currently leading the Bryce Young Sweepstakes and have little incentive to put up a fight against a Giants team trying to secure a playoff spot. This spread should really be higher.

Steelers (-1) over Saints

TJ Watt is back, Minkah Fitzpatrick isn’t and that’s probably more than enough to hold off the Saints’ battered offense led by soon-to-be analyst Andy Dalton.

Cowboys (-3.5) over Packers

A high draft pick is Aaron Rodgers' best shot at getting a top tier weapon and the Packers are currently projected to select 8th in April's draft. In true Packers fashion, Green Bay will find a way to win this game but I refuse to pick this team the rest of the season. 

Colts (-4.5) over Raiders

The Colts caught a lot of shit for hiring Jeff Saturday as their head coach but, if you’re going to bring in a former player with no coaching experience, there are worse ways to make a debut than against the lowly Raiders. I like Indy to at least cover here.

Rams (-3) over Cardinals

My condolences to anyone that is stuck with Colt McCoy vs John Wolford on their TV screen. Rams have the better defense, so they get the nod in the Battle of the Backups.

Chargers (+7.5) over Niners

The Chargers have been beat up and underwhelming this year but thinking a Jimmy G-led Niners team is more than a touchdown better is criminal. I’m sure I’ll eat those words but I like LA here.

Eagles (-11) over Commanders

I’m always leery of double-digit spreads in obvious one-sides matchups but the Commanders are a shitshow and the Eagles could use a dominant win.

Week 9 Picks

 Last week: 8-7

Season: 64-56-3


Eagles (-13.5) over Texans

I tend to lean towards the underdog on double-digit/two-touchdown spreads but it’s hard to imagine a Brandon Cooks-less Texans team mounting enough offense to keep it close against the best team in the NFC.

Lions (+3.5) over Packers

My strategy going forward is to pick against the Packers until they prove they can win another game, even in a clash against the anemic Lions.

Falcons (+2.5) over Chargers

The Falcons have been sneaky good this season and they get Swiss Army knife Cordarelle Patterson back against a Chargers team missing its top receivers. I smell an upset here.

Dolphins (-4.5) over Bears

The Dolphins landed pass-rusher Bradley Chubb at the deadline and face a Bears team allowing the most sacks in the league. This is going to be a long day for Justin Fields.

Bengals (-7) over Panthers

It would be in the Panthers’ best interest to see what they have in P.J. Walker and tank for a higher draft spot in order to select a franchise QB next April. They’ll accomplish both by getting steamrolled by the Bengals.

Patriots (-5.5) over Colts

The Colts might have given up on head coach Frank Reich and, even if they haven’t, they aren’t healthy enough to be much of a factor the rest of the season. The Patriots, meanwhile, have a puncher’s chance at a wild card spot.

Jets (+10.5) over Bills

The Jets can’t trade shots with the Bills but the defense is good enough to slow Buffalo down and cover the spread.

Vikings (-3) over Commanders

If the Packers lose to the Lions with the Cowboys, Titans and Eagles coming up next, it’s not unrealistic to think the Vikings can have the division wrapped up by Thanksgiving as long as they continue to feast on cupcakes.

Jaguars (+2.5) over Raiders

It’s hard to see either of these teams making the playoffs at 2-5 but, even only nine weeks into the season, this feels like an eliminator game for whoever loses this one.

Seahawks (+1.5) over Cardinals

We currently live in a world where Geno Smith is the third-best QB in the NFC. You win, universe.

Bucs (-3) over Rams

The saving grace for Tom Brady is, after this one, the rest of the schedule is soft and he could still sneak into the playoffs for one last title run.

Chiefs (-12.5) over Titans

We really got Patrick Mahomes vs Malik Willis before Mahomes vs Rodgers. A year or two from now, a showdown between these two will be a bigger deal but the rookie doesn’t stand a chance against Mahomes, who hasn’t lost in a November and December since 2019.

(Note: This is all a moot point if Ryan Tannehill plays.)

Ravens (-2) over Saints

Not playing Monday night: Mark Andrews, Gus Edwards, Rashod Bateman, Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Jameis Winston.

Not watching Monday night: Most of America outside of Baltimore and New Orleans.

Week 8 Picks

 Week 8

Last week: 7-7

Season: 56-49-3

Bucs (-2.5) over Ravens

There’s no way Tom Brady loses three straight, right? Right? 

Jaguars (-1) over Broncos

If the Broncos traded Russell Wilson for Baker Mayfield, how much worse would they possibly be?

Related note: The people of London deserve better than the turd burgers the NFL gives them. 

Panthers (+4) over Falcons

Once considered the worst team in football, the Panthers now seem poised to be the team that overperforms its way out of a top draft slot as a sign of solidarity to their interim coach. This might be an overreaction to last week’s “upset” of the Bucs, but I don’t think either of these teams are good enough to pull away from the other by more than a field goal. 

Cowboys (-10) over Bears

If you loved Dak Prescott nearly getting Wally Pipp’d by Cooper Rush, you’re going to really enjoy Tony Pollard rendering Ezekiel Elliott obsolete. Double digits is a large number for a Cowboys offense still finding its footing with Dak back, but the Bears are hot garbage right now and Dallas could use a statement win.

Dolphins (-3.5) over Lions 

There’s shootout potential here as neither defense has shown a knack for getting stops. The Dolphins get the edge because they have the more talented offense. 

Vikings (-3.5) over Cardinals 

Minnesota doesn’t have a win over a single team that might make the playoffs (unless you include Miami, who was without Tua) and that trend continues with dysfunctional Arizona. Vikings move on to an empty 6-1 as Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury move closer to couples therapy. 

Raiders (-1.5) over Saints

This has the makings of being the worst game of the season. New Orleans is without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry with rookie Chris Olave still working his way back from a concussion. As for Las Vegas, Davante Adams is playing through the flu and Darren Walker is a game-time call with a sore hamstring. Shame on you for making me pick on of these teams!

Jets (+3) over Patriots

The Jets are 5-2 and are somehow three-point underdogs at home against a Patriots team playing on a short week after getting their asses kicked by the Bears. Make it make sense.  

Eagles (-10.5) over Steelers

The Eagles’ good luck will run out eventually, but at home against the worst Steelers team in decades led by a rookie QB? Naaaah. 

Titans (+1) over Texans 

Malik Willis is making his first NFL start and he’s going to need time to work through the growing pains but, with his skill set and how bad the Texans are, there’s a chance he never gives the starting job back to Ryan Tannehill. 

Commanders (+3) over Colts 

We get a Taylor Heinicke vs Sam Ehlinger QB duel and this still isn’t the worst game on this week’s slate. 

Niners (-1) over Rams 

The Rams being on a bye last week made you forget that Matt Stafford deserves to be on Mount Washedmore with Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson this season. Don’t worry. The Niners are here to remind you.

Giants (+3.5) over Seahawks 

The Giants are probably more lucky than good but they’re competent on defense and the Seahawks’ top two wideouts are hobbled with injuries. Take the points. 

Bills (+10.5) over Packers

There’s one nail remaining in the Packers’ 2022 coffin and the Bills are the hammer. 

Bengals (-3.5) over Browns 

The Bengals managed to climb out of the grave they dug for themselves early in the season and the next five weeks look like this: @Cleveland, vs Carolina, bye week, @Pittsburgh, @Tennessee. Even if Ja’Marr Chase doesn’t suit up at any point during that stretch, Cincy could possibly be 8-3 going into their Week 13 clash at home against the Chiefs after a 0-2 start. (Larry David voice) Pretty, pretty, pretty good.

Week 7 Picks

Last Week: 9-5

Season: 49-42-3

Cardinals (-2.5) over Saints 

The Cardinals finally get DeAndre Hopkins back after a six-game suspension. They’re still terrible but this makes them a little more fun to watch and should be enough to take down a short-handed Saints squad. 

Packers (-4.5) over Commanders

This is the worst Packers team since Green Bay went 6-9-1 in 2018 and a strong contender for the worst since Aaron Rodgers took over in 2008. The offense isn't producing any big plays because the O-line can't keep Rodgers upright and the defense, which the franchise has invested a ton of draft capital in over the years much to the chagrin of their Hall of Fame QB, is on the field too long to fully realize its potential. With all that said, a clash with the dysfunctional Commanders is a smash spot for a Packers team in need of a confidence boost.

Falcons (+6.5) over Bengals 

The Falcons are quietly playing .500 football and are coming off a 14-point win over the Niners. The Bengals are back from the dead but Atlanta will be competitive enough to keep it close. 

Cowboys (-6.5) over Lions

All eyes will be on the return of Dak Prescott after backup Cooper Rush went 4-1 as a starter in Dak’s absence. If Dallas’ $160 million man can’t shake off the rush and put away Detroit, you can expect talking heads to come out the woodwork on Monday trying to stir up a QB controversy. 

Colts (+2.5) over Titans

A textbook example of my “Regular Season Doesn’t Matter” theory: both of these teams are suddenly above .500 but still terrible. Someone has to win this game (or in Indy’s case, at least the), so I might as well take the points. 

Buccaneers (-13) over Panthers

I’m skittish about taking the Bucs as double-digit favorites again after they shit the bed against Pittsburgh last week but Carolina is a rotting corpse already being picked through by vultures. If Tampa Bay can’t win convincingly here, Tom Brady should just go ahead and retire after the game. 

Giants (+3) over Jaguars 

Oddsmakers don’t seem to believe in a 5-1 Giants team coming off back-to-back victories over the Ravens and Packers. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have lost three straight, making this spread pretty egregious. It’ll be a low-scoring affair but Big Blue takes the “upset”.

Browns (+6.5) over Ravens 

The Ravens have followed every loss this season with a win and vice versa. Based on that trend, they should win here but injuries on the offensive end make it hard to like that by more than a field goal against a Browns team that can control the clock with a solid run game. 

Jets (-1.5) over Broncos

There’s Cooper Rush potential here with Brett Rypien taking over at QB for the injured and overrated Russell Wilson but the Jets have a ton of momentum after winning four of their last five and their defense is disgusting. 

Texans (+7) over Raiders

I might be getting too cute here but the Raiders have been a colossal disappointment this year and will be playing without Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller. On the flip side, Texans RB Dameon Pierce is making his ROTY case and Houston only has one bad loss on their record. Houston doesn’t just cover. They pull off the upset. 

Chargers (-5.5) over Seahawks 

The Chargers are short-handed on offense but Darrell Brooks is mounting a better defense in a Wisconsin courtroom than the Seahawks have fielded this season (410.8 yards and 27.7 points allowed per game, both bottom-five in the league). As promised, last week was the debut of The Kenneth Walker Show but, unfortunately,  the impressive rookie runner can’t stop Justin Herbert and the Bolts. 

Chiefs (-1.5) over Niners

It’s understandable for people to freak out over the Niners’ acquisition of Christian McCaffrey, but CMC hasn’t played a full season since 2019 and now shares the backfield with the equally fragile Jimmy Garoppolo at QB. A showdown with the high-octane Chiefs isn’t a proper litmus test for this new-look San Fran offense but there’s enough on both sides of the ball to keep this competitive. KC still rolls though.  

Steelers (+7.5) over Dolphins 

The Dolphins as 7.5-point favorites is generous, even against the lowly Steelers. It may be Tua Time once again, but the former Bama star hasn’t played in nearly a month and is no sure bet to make it through this game. Speaking of concussions, Steelers QB Kenny Pickett gets the nod after getting knocked out last week because 50 percent of the rookie is still better than 100 percent of Mitch Trubisky. This has the makings of a shitshow, one Miami will inevitably win but not cover. 

Patriots (-8) over Bears

After mindlessly giving the world Russell Wilson on Monday night twice in six weeks, the NFL will now subject the world to Mac Jones vs Justin Fields. I guess when you know you’re going to lose some of your audience to the NBA and a suddenly resurgent “Monday Night Raw”, you don’t care as much about what you’re putting on primetime. Patriots should cover against one of the worst teams in football but the real winners will be whoever chooses to not watch this game.

Week 6 Picks

Last Week: 8-7-1

Season: 40-37-3

Commanders (-1) over Bears 

Going up against playoff baseball and preseason in two other major sports, the NFL threw its hands up in defeat and put two of the worst teams in football on primetime. It’s hard to predict a showdown between Carson Wentz and Justin Fields but the only certainty is it will be hard to watch.

Jets (+7.5) over Packers

The logic here is the same as in past weeks: Until the Packers prove they can dominate a team not named the Bears, it’s silly to take them with a spread this high. Meanwhile, the Jets are coming off trouncing the Dolphins and have won three of their last four. Gang Green with the upset.

Browns (-2.5) over Patriots

The Patriots are banged up and the days of Bill Belichick being able to scheme through his team’s shortcomings are over. The Browns have been competitive in every game this season and this shouldn’t be any different.

Jaguars (+1.5) over Colts

Typically, if a spread is too good to be true, it probably is. The Colts are without Jonathan Taylor and they’ve been awful all season, including squeaking by equally embarrassing Denver last week. The Jags are better than the team who shit the bed last week against the Texans and they’ll prove it here.

Vikings (-3) over Dolphins

Minnesota has won three straight while Miami is trotting out third-string seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson at QB. This should be all Vikings but crazier things have happened.

Bengals (-3) over Saints

The Saints are missing every receiver short of Joe Horn and the Bengals need this one to stay in the AFC North hunt. Joe Burrow shows out in his return to Louisiana.

Giants (+5.5) over Ravens

The jury is still out on whether this Giants team is good but I think they’re competent enough to keep it close. Ravens by 3.

Buccaneers (-9.5) over Steelers

Tampa Bay is finally starting to get healthy while Pittsburgh might be the worst team in football. The Brady Bunch tear down Pickett’s fences here.

Rams (-10) over Panthers

The Panthers already threw the towel in on this season by firing head coach Matt Rhule and putting star RB Christian McCaffrey on the trading block. As disappointing as the Rams are, there’s no reason to believe they won’t rout here.

Seahawks (+2.5) over Cardinals

Calling it now: this will be rookie RB Kenneth Walker’s coming out party. The surprising Seahawks steal one from a Cardinals team that seems to find ways to lose. 

Bills (-2.5) over Chiefs

This should be a shootout between the two best offenses in football. Buffalo is better defensively and can establish the run to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, so I give them the edge.

Cowboys (+6.5) over Eagles

The City of Brotherly Love are poised to have a big sports week with the Phillies advancing to the NLCS and the Sixers opening their season up Tuesday. The Eagles might be the best team in the NFC but I don’t think they are a touchdown better than the Cowboys. Philly by 6.

Chargers (-4.5) over Broncos

One day, the NFL will stop putting this Broncos team on national television and the world will rejoice. Until that day, we all get suffer through Russell Wilson reprising his role as football’s Old Yeller.

Week 5 Picks

 Last Week: 11-4-1

Season: 32-30-2

After an abysmal start, I’m finally above .500 this season. The eight people reading this may have wrote me off but I didn’t write back.

Colts (+3.5) over Broncos

The NFL obviously had bigger expectations when they first put this on the docket than a showdown between the two most disappointing teams in the league. If the Colts players care at all about Frank Reich keeping his job, they’ll show out against a banged up Broncos team. I’m sure I’ll end up regretting this but I’m giving Indianapolis one last chance to show me something.

Giants (+9) over Packers

As I said last week, until the Packers’ offense shows some life, it’s hard to like Green Bay against anyone by more than a touchdown. Pack win another close one.

Bills (-14) over Steelers

Two touchdown spreads are typically a stay-away for me but Pittsburgh is awful and Josh Allen is building his MVP case. The bright side for Steelers fans is Mike Tomlin finally ended the Mistake Makin’ Mitch era and decided to give Kenny Pickett a shot. It won’t help them here but it might down the road.

Buccaneers (-10) over Falcons

I might regret this pick because Atlanta has been competitive so far this season, but Kyle Pitts is out and Tom Brady is finally getting his weapons back. A good game would also give the world something else to talk about besides…you know.

Vikings (-7.5) over Bears

The good news for the Bears is David Montgomery might be back. The bad news he doesn’t play corner. Justin Jefferson keeps the momentum going against Chicago.

Browns (+2) over Chargers

Upset special. The Chargers’ defense is giving up 27 points per game (30th in the league) while the Browns have the NFL’s sixth-best scoring offense (26.3 PPG). Los Angeles is banged up enough on offense that it won’t survive a shootout.

Lions (+3) over Patriots

Detroit is the most dangerous 1-3 team in the NFL and New England won’t be able to keep pace with the league’s best offense with former third-string rookie Bailey Zappe at QB.

Jets (+3.5) over Dolphins

Both of Miami’s top weapons are banged up and Teddy Bridgewater won’t be able to move the ball against this Jets defense like he did against the Bengals (which the Dolphins lost anyway). This one comes down to a field goal. Gang Green covers at home.

Titans (-1) over Commanders

The only interesting part about this game is rookie RB Brian Robinson potentially taking the field just months after being shot in the leg before the season. Beyond that, it’s a battle between two QBs sure to be benched by Halloween.

Jaguars (-7) over Texans

The Texans are 18-4 against the Jaguars in their last 22 games, including winning the last eight, but this isn’t the same Jags team as years past. Jacksonville dominates here.

Seahawks (+5) over Saints

No Jameis Winston. No Michael Thomas. Alvin Kamara is banged up and the Seahawks haven’t been terrible this year. Seattle doesn’t just cover. It wins outright.

Niners (-6.5) over Panthers

It’s looking like a lost season already for the Panthers. CMC is struggling to stay healthy. Baker Mayfield might be the worst starting QB in the league and there’s buzz that Matt Rhule isn’t long for the world in Carolina. Even on a short week, the Niners should roll here.

Eagles (-5.5) over Cardinals

With a balanced offense and a bend-but-don’t-break defense, the Eagles might be the best team in the NFC and perhaps even the NFL. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are struggling to hold it together until DeAndre Hopkins comes back.

Cowboys (+5.5) over Rams

Matt Stafford took seven sacks in a loss to the Niners last week and now gets the league’s fiercest pass rush on a short week. Cooper Rush’s undefeated streak continues.

Bengals (+3) over Ravens

The Bengals are a couple bad breaks from being 4-0 and they’re coming off two straight convincing wins. It’s hard to pick against Lamar Jackson’s one-man show but Cincy has the momentum right now.

Chiefs (-7) over Raiders

Tom Brady couldn’t win a shootout with Patrick Mahomes. Neither could Justin Herbert or Kyler Murray. Why would I believe Derek Carr could?