Week 8 Picks

 Week 8

Last week: 7-7

Season: 56-49-3

Bucs (-2.5) over Ravens

There’s no way Tom Brady loses three straight, right? Right? 

Jaguars (-1) over Broncos

If the Broncos traded Russell Wilson for Baker Mayfield, how much worse would they possibly be?

Related note: The people of London deserve better than the turd burgers the NFL gives them. 

Panthers (+4) over Falcons

Once considered the worst team in football, the Panthers now seem poised to be the team that overperforms its way out of a top draft slot as a sign of solidarity to their interim coach. This might be an overreaction to last week’s “upset” of the Bucs, but I don’t think either of these teams are good enough to pull away from the other by more than a field goal. 

Cowboys (-10) over Bears

If you loved Dak Prescott nearly getting Wally Pipp’d by Cooper Rush, you’re going to really enjoy Tony Pollard rendering Ezekiel Elliott obsolete. Double digits is a large number for a Cowboys offense still finding its footing with Dak back, but the Bears are hot garbage right now and Dallas could use a statement win.

Dolphins (-3.5) over Lions 

There’s shootout potential here as neither defense has shown a knack for getting stops. The Dolphins get the edge because they have the more talented offense. 

Vikings (-3.5) over Cardinals 

Minnesota doesn’t have a win over a single team that might make the playoffs (unless you include Miami, who was without Tua) and that trend continues with dysfunctional Arizona. Vikings move on to an empty 6-1 as Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury move closer to couples therapy. 

Raiders (-1.5) over Saints

This has the makings of being the worst game of the season. New Orleans is without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry with rookie Chris Olave still working his way back from a concussion. As for Las Vegas, Davante Adams is playing through the flu and Darren Walker is a game-time call with a sore hamstring. Shame on you for making me pick on of these teams!

Jets (+3) over Patriots

The Jets are 5-2 and are somehow three-point underdogs at home against a Patriots team playing on a short week after getting their asses kicked by the Bears. Make it make sense.  

Eagles (-10.5) over Steelers

The Eagles’ good luck will run out eventually, but at home against the worst Steelers team in decades led by a rookie QB? Naaaah. 

Titans (+1) over Texans 

Malik Willis is making his first NFL start and he’s going to need time to work through the growing pains but, with his skill set and how bad the Texans are, there’s a chance he never gives the starting job back to Ryan Tannehill. 

Commanders (+3) over Colts 

We get a Taylor Heinicke vs Sam Ehlinger QB duel and this still isn’t the worst game on this week’s slate. 

Niners (-1) over Rams 

The Rams being on a bye last week made you forget that Matt Stafford deserves to be on Mount Washedmore with Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson this season. Don’t worry. The Niners are here to remind you.

Giants (+3.5) over Seahawks 

The Giants are probably more lucky than good but they’re competent on defense and the Seahawks’ top two wideouts are hobbled with injuries. Take the points. 

Bills (+10.5) over Packers

There’s one nail remaining in the Packers’ 2022 coffin and the Bills are the hammer. 

Bengals (-3.5) over Browns 

The Bengals managed to climb out of the grave they dug for themselves early in the season and the next five weeks look like this: @Cleveland, vs Carolina, bye week, @Pittsburgh, @Tennessee. Even if Ja’Marr Chase doesn’t suit up at any point during that stretch, Cincy could possibly be 8-3 going into their Week 13 clash at home against the Chiefs after a 0-2 start. (Larry David voice) Pretty, pretty, pretty good.

Week 7 Picks

Last Week: 9-5

Season: 49-42-3

Cardinals (-2.5) over Saints 

The Cardinals finally get DeAndre Hopkins back after a six-game suspension. They’re still terrible but this makes them a little more fun to watch and should be enough to take down a short-handed Saints squad. 

Packers (-4.5) over Commanders

This is the worst Packers team since Green Bay went 6-9-1 in 2018 and a strong contender for the worst since Aaron Rodgers took over in 2008. The offense isn't producing any big plays because the O-line can't keep Rodgers upright and the defense, which the franchise has invested a ton of draft capital in over the years much to the chagrin of their Hall of Fame QB, is on the field too long to fully realize its potential. With all that said, a clash with the dysfunctional Commanders is a smash spot for a Packers team in need of a confidence boost.

Falcons (+6.5) over Bengals 

The Falcons are quietly playing .500 football and are coming off a 14-point win over the Niners. The Bengals are back from the dead but Atlanta will be competitive enough to keep it close. 

Cowboys (-6.5) over Lions

All eyes will be on the return of Dak Prescott after backup Cooper Rush went 4-1 as a starter in Dak’s absence. If Dallas’ $160 million man can’t shake off the rush and put away Detroit, you can expect talking heads to come out the woodwork on Monday trying to stir up a QB controversy. 

Colts (+2.5) over Titans

A textbook example of my “Regular Season Doesn’t Matter” theory: both of these teams are suddenly above .500 but still terrible. Someone has to win this game (or in Indy’s case, at least the), so I might as well take the points. 

Buccaneers (-13) over Panthers

I’m skittish about taking the Bucs as double-digit favorites again after they shit the bed against Pittsburgh last week but Carolina is a rotting corpse already being picked through by vultures. If Tampa Bay can’t win convincingly here, Tom Brady should just go ahead and retire after the game. 

Giants (+3) over Jaguars 

Oddsmakers don’t seem to believe in a 5-1 Giants team coming off back-to-back victories over the Ravens and Packers. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have lost three straight, making this spread pretty egregious. It’ll be a low-scoring affair but Big Blue takes the “upset”.

Browns (+6.5) over Ravens 

The Ravens have followed every loss this season with a win and vice versa. Based on that trend, they should win here but injuries on the offensive end make it hard to like that by more than a field goal against a Browns team that can control the clock with a solid run game. 

Jets (-1.5) over Broncos

There’s Cooper Rush potential here with Brett Rypien taking over at QB for the injured and overrated Russell Wilson but the Jets have a ton of momentum after winning four of their last five and their defense is disgusting. 

Texans (+7) over Raiders

I might be getting too cute here but the Raiders have been a colossal disappointment this year and will be playing without Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller. On the flip side, Texans RB Dameon Pierce is making his ROTY case and Houston only has one bad loss on their record. Houston doesn’t just cover. They pull off the upset. 

Chargers (-5.5) over Seahawks 

The Chargers are short-handed on offense but Darrell Brooks is mounting a better defense in a Wisconsin courtroom than the Seahawks have fielded this season (410.8 yards and 27.7 points allowed per game, both bottom-five in the league). As promised, last week was the debut of The Kenneth Walker Show but, unfortunately,  the impressive rookie runner can’t stop Justin Herbert and the Bolts. 

Chiefs (-1.5) over Niners

It’s understandable for people to freak out over the Niners’ acquisition of Christian McCaffrey, but CMC hasn’t played a full season since 2019 and now shares the backfield with the equally fragile Jimmy Garoppolo at QB. A showdown with the high-octane Chiefs isn’t a proper litmus test for this new-look San Fran offense but there’s enough on both sides of the ball to keep this competitive. KC still rolls though.  

Steelers (+7.5) over Dolphins 

The Dolphins as 7.5-point favorites is generous, even against the lowly Steelers. It may be Tua Time once again, but the former Bama star hasn’t played in nearly a month and is no sure bet to make it through this game. Speaking of concussions, Steelers QB Kenny Pickett gets the nod after getting knocked out last week because 50 percent of the rookie is still better than 100 percent of Mitch Trubisky. This has the makings of a shitshow, one Miami will inevitably win but not cover. 

Patriots (-8) over Bears

After mindlessly giving the world Russell Wilson on Monday night twice in six weeks, the NFL will now subject the world to Mac Jones vs Justin Fields. I guess when you know you’re going to lose some of your audience to the NBA and a suddenly resurgent “Monday Night Raw”, you don’t care as much about what you’re putting on primetime. Patriots should cover against one of the worst teams in football but the real winners will be whoever chooses to not watch this game.

Week 6 Picks

Last Week: 8-7-1

Season: 40-37-3

Commanders (-1) over Bears 

Going up against playoff baseball and preseason in two other major sports, the NFL threw its hands up in defeat and put two of the worst teams in football on primetime. It’s hard to predict a showdown between Carson Wentz and Justin Fields but the only certainty is it will be hard to watch.

Jets (+7.5) over Packers

The logic here is the same as in past weeks: Until the Packers prove they can dominate a team not named the Bears, it’s silly to take them with a spread this high. Meanwhile, the Jets are coming off trouncing the Dolphins and have won three of their last four. Gang Green with the upset.

Browns (-2.5) over Patriots

The Patriots are banged up and the days of Bill Belichick being able to scheme through his team’s shortcomings are over. The Browns have been competitive in every game this season and this shouldn’t be any different.

Jaguars (+1.5) over Colts

Typically, if a spread is too good to be true, it probably is. The Colts are without Jonathan Taylor and they’ve been awful all season, including squeaking by equally embarrassing Denver last week. The Jags are better than the team who shit the bed last week against the Texans and they’ll prove it here.

Vikings (-3) over Dolphins

Minnesota has won three straight while Miami is trotting out third-string seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson at QB. This should be all Vikings but crazier things have happened.

Bengals (-3) over Saints

The Saints are missing every receiver short of Joe Horn and the Bengals need this one to stay in the AFC North hunt. Joe Burrow shows out in his return to Louisiana.

Giants (+5.5) over Ravens

The jury is still out on whether this Giants team is good but I think they’re competent enough to keep it close. Ravens by 3.

Buccaneers (-9.5) over Steelers

Tampa Bay is finally starting to get healthy while Pittsburgh might be the worst team in football. The Brady Bunch tear down Pickett’s fences here.

Rams (-10) over Panthers

The Panthers already threw the towel in on this season by firing head coach Matt Rhule and putting star RB Christian McCaffrey on the trading block. As disappointing as the Rams are, there’s no reason to believe they won’t rout here.

Seahawks (+2.5) over Cardinals

Calling it now: this will be rookie RB Kenneth Walker’s coming out party. The surprising Seahawks steal one from a Cardinals team that seems to find ways to lose. 

Bills (-2.5) over Chiefs

This should be a shootout between the two best offenses in football. Buffalo is better defensively and can establish the run to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, so I give them the edge.

Cowboys (+6.5) over Eagles

The City of Brotherly Love are poised to have a big sports week with the Phillies advancing to the NLCS and the Sixers opening their season up Tuesday. The Eagles might be the best team in the NFC but I don’t think they are a touchdown better than the Cowboys. Philly by 6.

Chargers (-4.5) over Broncos

One day, the NFL will stop putting this Broncos team on national television and the world will rejoice. Until that day, we all get suffer through Russell Wilson reprising his role as football’s Old Yeller.

Week 5 Picks

 Last Week: 11-4-1

Season: 32-30-2

After an abysmal start, I’m finally above .500 this season. The eight people reading this may have wrote me off but I didn’t write back.

Colts (+3.5) over Broncos

The NFL obviously had bigger expectations when they first put this on the docket than a showdown between the two most disappointing teams in the league. If the Colts players care at all about Frank Reich keeping his job, they’ll show out against a banged up Broncos team. I’m sure I’ll end up regretting this but I’m giving Indianapolis one last chance to show me something.

Giants (+9) over Packers

As I said last week, until the Packers’ offense shows some life, it’s hard to like Green Bay against anyone by more than a touchdown. Pack win another close one.

Bills (-14) over Steelers

Two touchdown spreads are typically a stay-away for me but Pittsburgh is awful and Josh Allen is building his MVP case. The bright side for Steelers fans is Mike Tomlin finally ended the Mistake Makin’ Mitch era and decided to give Kenny Pickett a shot. It won’t help them here but it might down the road.

Buccaneers (-10) over Falcons

I might regret this pick because Atlanta has been competitive so far this season, but Kyle Pitts is out and Tom Brady is finally getting his weapons back. A good game would also give the world something else to talk about besides…you know.

Vikings (-7.5) over Bears

The good news for the Bears is David Montgomery might be back. The bad news he doesn’t play corner. Justin Jefferson keeps the momentum going against Chicago.

Browns (+2) over Chargers

Upset special. The Chargers’ defense is giving up 27 points per game (30th in the league) while the Browns have the NFL’s sixth-best scoring offense (26.3 PPG). Los Angeles is banged up enough on offense that it won’t survive a shootout.

Lions (+3) over Patriots

Detroit is the most dangerous 1-3 team in the NFL and New England won’t be able to keep pace with the league’s best offense with former third-string rookie Bailey Zappe at QB.

Jets (+3.5) over Dolphins

Both of Miami’s top weapons are banged up and Teddy Bridgewater won’t be able to move the ball against this Jets defense like he did against the Bengals (which the Dolphins lost anyway). This one comes down to a field goal. Gang Green covers at home.

Titans (-1) over Commanders

The only interesting part about this game is rookie RB Brian Robinson potentially taking the field just months after being shot in the leg before the season. Beyond that, it’s a battle between two QBs sure to be benched by Halloween.

Jaguars (-7) over Texans

The Texans are 18-4 against the Jaguars in their last 22 games, including winning the last eight, but this isn’t the same Jags team as years past. Jacksonville dominates here.

Seahawks (+5) over Saints

No Jameis Winston. No Michael Thomas. Alvin Kamara is banged up and the Seahawks haven’t been terrible this year. Seattle doesn’t just cover. It wins outright.

Niners (-6.5) over Panthers

It’s looking like a lost season already for the Panthers. CMC is struggling to stay healthy. Baker Mayfield might be the worst starting QB in the league and there’s buzz that Matt Rhule isn’t long for the world in Carolina. Even on a short week, the Niners should roll here.

Eagles (-5.5) over Cardinals

With a balanced offense and a bend-but-don’t-break defense, the Eagles might be the best team in the NFC and perhaps even the NFL. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are struggling to hold it together until DeAndre Hopkins comes back.

Cowboys (+5.5) over Rams

Matt Stafford took seven sacks in a loss to the Niners last week and now gets the league’s fiercest pass rush on a short week. Cooper Rush’s undefeated streak continues.

Bengals (+3) over Ravens

The Bengals are a couple bad breaks from being 4-0 and they’re coming off two straight convincing wins. It’s hard to pick against Lamar Jackson’s one-man show but Cincy has the momentum right now.

Chiefs (-7) over Raiders

Tom Brady couldn’t win a shootout with Patrick Mahomes. Neither could Justin Herbert or Kyler Murray. Why would I believe Derek Carr could?

Week 4 Picks

Last week: 9-6-1

(Note: Completely forgot to post the Packers-Bucs game last week but I had the Bucs so that's an L.)

Season: 21-26-1

Dolphins (+3.5) over Bengals

The Bengals are 1-2 with their lone victory coming last week against the lowly Jets. They’ve also allowed 15 sacks through three games, tied with Washington for most in the league. Even at home on a short week against a banged up Dolphins team, Cincinnati opening up as favorites is a bit preposterous. If Cincy can keep Joe Burrow upright, there’s some shootout potential here but, even at less than 100 percent, I expect Tua & company to take care of business.

Vikings (-3.5) over Saints

The NFL’s ongoing campaign to make other countries hate football continues with an epic clash between Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton in London. Dalton is filling in for the injured Jameis Winston and, if that isn’t enough to make you lose faith in the Saints’ chances, New Orleans will also be without top weapons Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Vikings get Dalvin Cook back after he left last week with a shoulder injury and there’s no reason to believe they won’t cruise here.

Jaguars (+6.5) over Eagles

The Jaguars and Eagles are arguably two of the most impressive teams through three weeks of the season. Jacksonville recovered from an opening week hiccup against Washington to throttle the Colts and Chargers in the last two games while Philadelphia is the last remaining undefeated team at 3-0. Philly’s D has been leaky enough this season that Jacksonville can at least keep it close. Eagles win. Jags cover.

Bills (-3) over Ravens

Lamar Jackson is my MVP through three weeks as he’s carried the Ravens with his arm and legs but I like Buffalo’s chances of momentarily slowing Jackson down more than Baltimore’s chances of doing the same to Josh Allen. Bills by a score.

Titans (+3.5) over Colts

Everything had to go wrong for the Chiefs last week so the Colts could get their first win. The Titans are equally inept but they’re getting the points so I like them as the lesser of two evils.

Giants (-2.5) over Bears

One of these teams will walk out 3-1, which is a tragedy. Justin Fields is allegedly unhappy in Chicago, and why wouldn’t he be? His leading receiver has 77 yards in three games (Equanimeous St. Brown). Things aren’t much better for Big Blue as injuries have decimated the receiving core again. Saquon Barkley is still healthy though, so Giants by a field goal.

Cowboys (-3) over Commanders

After getting beat down in his return to Philly last week, Carson Wentz now gets to be chased around Dallas by the league’s fiercest pass rush. Cowboys haven’t lost since Cooper Rush took over and that streak won’t end here.

Chargers (-6) over Texans

The injury bug may have once again ruined the Chargers’ championship hopes but there’s still enough talent to handle a rebuilding Texans team still looking for its first win.

Falcons (+1) over Browns

Even in a rebuilding year, the Falcons haven’t been awful. A narrow loss to New Orleans in Week 1, a near-comeback against the defending Super Bowl champions in Week 2 and a W over the Seahawks last week. Now, they get the Browns sans Myles Garrett. If Marcus Mariota continues to get Drake London and Kyle Pitts involved, I like Atlanta with the upset.

Seahawks (+3.5) over Lions

I liked Detroit to win this earlier in the week but no D’Andre Swift, no Amon-Ra St. Brown or DJ Chark and top pick Aiden Hutchinson on a milk carton puts a damper on things. The Lions could still pull this one out but it’ll be too close to like them by more than a field goal.

Jets (+3.5) over Steelers

The MILF Hunter is back and he gets a showdown with Mitch Trubisky for his 2022 debut. Zach Wilson will have some rust to shake off but the Steelers’ offense will sputter enough under Mistake Makin’ Mitch to buy the Jets some time. Jets with the “upset”.

Cardinals (+1) over Panthers

CMC possibly sitting this one out would be the cherry on an awful football Sunday. Kyler works his magic to get dub here.

Patriots (+9.5) over Packers

No Mac Jones or Jakobi Meyers for the Pats but the Packers’ offense isn’t good enough to pick them to win by double-digits against anyone, even the badly wounded. Packers by a score in another defensive struggle.

Raiders (-3) over Broncos

Bigger regret: Davante Adams leaving Green Bay for the league’s only 0-3 team or the Broncos paying $245 million for a QB with two touchdowns in three games? If Las Vegas is going to get back on track, you would think it would be against a toothless Denver squad.

Chiefs (+1) over Bucs

45-year-old Tom Brady is starting to show his age and Hurricane Ian still looms around Florida. The Bucs struggled to find the end zone against the Packers last week and now have the tall task of keeping up with Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs team cheated out of a victory last week. Yikes.

Rams (+1.5) over Niners

I don’t know how the Niners are favored in this one after last week’s stinkfest against Denver but here we are. Rams make oddsmakers put respect on their name on national television by blowing out San Fran.