Week 4 NFL Picks

 I appreciate anyone still following these picks after the last two weeks. The good news is Week 3 was better than Week 2. The bad news is it was still abysmal. With no clear alpha after three weeks, this has been a tough season to call so far.

Anyway, on to Week 4.

Last week: 7-9
Season: 22-25-1

Cowboys at Giants (+5.5)

The Cowboys have won 13 of the last 14 against the Giants with the last victory that was within eight points dating back to October of 2020. Dallas is also desperate for a win after losing the last two in embarrassing fashion (the Ravens loss last week wasn’t as close as the score suggests). New York showed some flashes of competence in a win over Cleveland, but so did Dallas in Week 1 and we saw how they followed that up. Both of these teams aren’t very good and, while Dak is anticipating fans jumping off the bandwagon, that probably doesn’t happen this week.

Pick: Cowboys

Broncos at Jets (-8)

The Broncos pulled off a stunner last week, comfortably beating the Bucs on the road in a game they never trailed in. Now, the road trip continues against a well-rested Jets team coming off its best performance of the season last Thursday versus New England. If that’s not enough to lean towards Gang Green, keep in mind that Aaron Rodgers has Sean Payton in his sights after the Broncos coach took shots at Jets OC and Rodgers’ buddy Nate Hackett last offseason. Rodgers missed the opportunity to shut Payton up last season when he tore his Achilles, but there are few people in the NFL pettier than A-Rod and I expect him to build on his comeback season.

Pick: Jets

Bengals at Panthers (+4.5)

The biggest surprise of the season thus far was Andy Dalton restoring life to a dormant Panthers offense by dropping 319 yards and three touchdowns on the Raiders last week, which was the first time a quarterback has thrown for 300+ yards and three TDs all season. I don’t expect The Red Rifle to repeat that performance in a revenge game against Cincinnati but it’s hard to trust a 0-3 Bengals team with losses to New England and Washington on its résumé. Panthers should, at the very least, cover here.

Pick: Panthers

Vikings at Packers (-3)

After initially feared to be lost for a month with a MCL strain, Packers QB Jordan Love is expected to make his triumphant return after missing only two games. Green Bay won both those games by protecting Malik Willis with the run game and strong defensive efforts. That should be the strategy again this week in their biggest challenge of the season: a divisional showdown with undefeated Minnesota. I’ve underestimated the Packers the past two weeks, much to my own demise, and a potentially rusty Love playing at less than 100 percent gives me cause to do that again.

The Vikings are coming off wins against the defending NFC champion Niners and a solid Texans team. They’ll have Jordan Addison back opposite Justin Jefferson as well as Aaron Jones returning to Lambeau Field for the first time since being cut in the offseason. I might regret it, but I’m fading the Pack again.

Pick: Vikings

Eagles at Buccaneers (+1)

It’s a bit surprising Tampa Bay isn’t favored here. They’re at home against a poorly coached Eagles team that hasn’t had an impressive win all season and is without its top two wideouts. Perhaps it’s the residual effect from the Bucs laying an egg against the Broncos or oddsmakers being overly impressed with Philly’s win over New Orleans but I don’t see the Eagles having enough firepower to keep up here.

Pick: Bucs

Steelers at Colts (+2)

I had high hopes for Indy this year but injuries and Anthony Richardson’s stalled development makes them one of the most disappointing teams in the league thus far. Meanwhile, the surprising 3-0 Steelers could walk into their Week 9 bye still undefeated thanks to a suddenly cupcake schedule.

As long as Justin Fields continues to play safe football and let the defense carry, the Steelers will be satisfied winning ugly. A victory here would be the Steelers’ third road win in four games and, sooner or later, they will have to be in the conversation as potential title contenders.

Pick: Steelers



Jaguars at Texans (-6)

After an embarrassing loss to Buffalo on national television Monday night, the temperature beneath Jaguars coach Doug Pederson’s seat had to be scorching. Jacksonville is 0-3 and $275 million man Trevor Lawrence looks like one of the worst QBs in the league. It’s possible that a shaky Texans team coming off a loss to the Vikings and missing a couple weapons on offense (RB Joe Mixon, WR Tank Dell) gets caught slipping here but there’s a greater likelihood the Jags are a bottom-five team already thinking about next season.

Pick: Texans

Saints at Falcons (-2.5)

The Saints’ glass slipper shattered last week against the Eagles while the Falcons were a fourth down conversion (and proper officiating) away from knocking off the Super Bowl champs in primetime. I’m not ready to write off New Orleans yet but they are banged up and Atlanta needs this one to keep their hopes of contending in a surprisingly competitive NFC South alive.

Pick: Falcons

Rams at Bears (-3)

Caleb Williams finally found the end zone after 11 quarters of looking more like Jackson Mahomes than Patrick Mahomes. That’s the good news. The bad news is the Bears still lost while took four more sacks and threw two more picks, giving him 13 and 4 on the season in those respective categories. Until Chicago can protect Williams and/or prized free agent addition D’Andre Swift can show something resembling a pulse, the offense will never reach its potential. The Rams may not have the defense of years past but it doesn’t take much to expose the Bears’ walking turnstile offensive line. If not having Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua didn’t stop the Rams last week, it shouldn’t stop them this week.

Pick: Rams

Patriots at Niners (-10.5)

A lethal one-two punch of the Madden Curse and the Super Bowl hangover has the Niners on the ropes just three games into the season. Christian McCaffrey may not see the field this season. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are fighting through injuries while Brandon Aiyuk continues to show he doesn’t want to be in San Francisco by throwing tantrums at practice.

That being said, it’s hard to imagine Brock Purdy & Co. not snapping a two-game losing streak against arguably the worst team in football. The Patriots have no weapons, no defense and can’t protect whoever is behind center. Even on 10 days rest, New England doesn’t stand a chance.

Pick: Niners

Commanders at Cardinals (-3.5)

This has the potential to be a fun one. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels looks like the best of this year’s rookie crop so far while fellow Heisman winner Kyler Murray’s growing chemistry with rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. is bringing excitement to the desert. Arizona will be without TE Trey McBride but Washington’s defense is so bad that it might not matter. The Cardinals’ defense isn’t much better but they’re a scrappy bunch and they’ve kept Arizona competitive.  Here’s hoping this one lives up to the hype.

Pick: Cardinals

Chiefs at Chargers (+7)

The Chiefs are a conspiracy theorist’s wet dream. First, Kansas City beats Baltimore thanks to a toe on the line on the last play of the game. Then, back-to-back victories over Cincinnati and Atlanta are marred by suspicious penalty calls (or in the Falcons’ case, non-calls) late in the fourth quarter.

One play doesn’t cost a team a win and there were plenty of opportunities for all three teams to avoid holding an L, but the loud minority that believes the skids are being greased by the league to aid the Chiefs continue to accrue more evidence. The only way Kansas City can beat the allegations would be with a decisive victory and facing a Chargers team with a hobbled Justin Herbert is a good place to start.

Pick: Chiefs

Browns at Raiders (+2.5)

At the beginning of the season, I predicted the Raiders would inevitably trade Davante Adams to the Jets. With Antonio Pierce already having to shut down rumors after a slow start, it seems like only a matter of time before that prediction comes to fruition.

If only this game was that easy to project. The 1-2 Raiders are already dealing with concerns that some players are mailing it in while the 1-2 Browns were blown out by the lowly Cowboys and Giants while barely skating by the equally awful Jaguars. With no Adams or Maxx Crosby and QB Gardner Minshew already looking over his shoulder, the Raiders are too disadvantaged to take over even the most miserable of opponents.

Pick: Browns

Bills at Ravens (-2.5)

With their season potentially on the line, the Ravens came out strong against the Cowboys…and still nearly let Dallas come back. It’s hard to put a finger on why Baltimore isn’t playing up to its talent level but something is amiss. The same can’t be said for Buffalo, who look like the closest thing resembling the best team in football. The Bills have benefitted from a relatively easy schedule but it’s hard to say whether this game is a step up in difficultly given the Ravens’ recent play.

Pick: Bills

Titans at Dolphins (-2.5)

Will Levis vs Tyler Huntley. This is why you should be thankful there’s two Monday night games. On paper, the Titans should steamroll a Dolphins team already on their third QB but Levis is begging to be benched and Huntley is better than people think. It doesn’t matter who wins. We all lose.

Pick: Dolphins

Seahawks at Lions (-3.5)

If you can make it through 45 minutes of Dolphins-Titans, a clash between the surprisingly undefeated Seahawks and the ain’t-dead-yet Lions will be your reward. Both teams have their share of crucial injuries. The Lions won’t have All-Pro center Frank Ragnow anchoring the middle of the offensive line while the Seahawks’ entire defensive line is banged up. Seattle will have RB Kenneth Walker, who looked like a force before going down with an oblique injury, back after missing the last two game. I think both teams trade blows and it comes down to a late field goal. So, give me Seattle and the points.

Pick: Seahawks

NFL Week 3 Picks

 Everything we thought we knew about this season after Week 1 got hit with a Uno reverse after Week 2. Here’s some weird stats to think about going into Week 3:

1. Of the 32 teams in the NFL, only nine are still undefeated after two weeks. Minnesota and New Orleans are two of them while Baltimore and Cincinnati are still searching for their first win. 

2. The NFL’s five highest paid quarterbacks — Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa — have a combined nine touchdowns. That's the same amount as Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, who are on their fourth team after going 1-2 in the 2018 draft. 

3. Brock Purdy leads the NFL in passing yards despite not having Christian McCaffrey and getting minimal production from Brandon Aiyuk

4. Bryce Young and Caleb Williams, the last two number one overall picks, have yet to throw for a touchdown. Malik Willis, acquired for a seventh-round pick a month ago by the Green Bay Packers and thrust into the starting lineup after Jordan Love went down with a MCL strain, has one. 

5. Aiden Hutchinson had 4.5 sacks in one game last week and somehow still didn’t win NFC Defensive Player of the Week. 

Speaking of last week, league-wide upsets took its toll on our overall record. Here’s hoping we get better fortune and some clarity this week:

Last Week: 6-10

Season: 15-16-1

Patriots at Jets (-6.5)

The NFL continues to tinker with league rules in an effort to improve player safety but somehow found a way to schedule the Jets to play three times in 11 days despite their 40-year-old coming off an Achilles tear. Great work. 

Aaron Rodgers showed flashes of his old self last week against Tennessee but still has yet to clear 176 yards passing this season. He now draws a surprisingly stout Patriots defense on four days rest. The Jets have too much talent to lose this game at home but, until the offense lives up to its potential, they might find it hard to pull away from New England enough to cover the touchdown spread. Jets win. Pats cover.

Pick: Patriots 

Broncos at Bucs (-6)

A Buccaneers defense that is in the bottom half in rushing and passing yardage allowed gets the perfect cure for what ails them: a Broncos offense averaging 13 points per game that can’t move the ball much through the air or ground. Denver rookie QB Bo Nix might get his first passing touchdown against this porous Tampa Bay defense but there’s no way this anemic offense can keep up with a rejuvenated Baker Mayfield.

Pick: Bucs

Giants at Browns (-6.5)

There’s an old adage about good teams finding ways to win while bad teams find ways to lose. The jury is still out over which category the Browns are in but there’s no questioning whether the Giants are among the worst teams in football after somehow managing to lose to the Commanders last week without giving up a touchdown. Even only two games in, Big Blue doesn’t have much fight in them and whatever they left is about to be beaten out of them by a stout Browns defense.

Pick: Browns

Eagles at Saints (-3)

It’s early but the Saints look like they’re legit and Derek Carr is suddenly in the MVP conversation. New Orleans shut down any talk that their Week 1 dominance was a fluke by repeating that success on the road against the Cowboys. Now, they get an Eagles team that followed up nearly losing on the final drive to Jordan Love by actually losing on the final drive to Kirk Cousins. New Orleans is too good on both sides of the ball for this one to come down to any late-game dramatics.

Pick: Saints

Chargers at Steelers (-2.5)

This game is surprisingly more interesting than many would’ve thought two weeks ago and there’s a few matchups to keep an eye on:

The NFL’s leading rusher J.K. Dobbins against a Steelers defense that’s allowing just 76.5 yards per game on the ground and has yet to give up a rushing touchdown.

Steelers’ pass-rushing phenom T.J. Watt (two sacks, 11th-best in the league) against rising star rookie left tackle Joe Alt, who has allowed just one sack all season.

Two of the league’s best coaches, Mike Tomlin and Jim Harbaugh, leading the top two scoring defenses.

This is arguably the most evenly-matched of the Week 3 slate but Justin Herbert’s high-ankle sprain and the Steelers being at home lean this in Pittsburgh’s favor.

Pick: Steelers

Texans at Vikings (+1.5)

There’s a lot of upset potential here. Houston has escaped with close victories the past two weeks over the Colts and Bears but now goes on the road against a Minnesota team that’s better defensively than Indianapolis and better offensively than Chicago. Injuries haven’t stopped the Vikings yet and I don’t think the Joe Mixon-less Texans will either.

Pick: Vikings

Packers at Titans (-3)

Malik Willis Revenge Game? The Packers pulled off an upset victory over the Colts despite not having QB Jordan Love by relying almost exclusively on the run game. Green Bay ran the ball 53 times for 261 yards, only relying on Willis when they absolutely had to. That formula won’t work against a good Tennessee defense and the law of averages suggests Titans QB Will Levis won’t implode for a third straight week. This looks like a defensive struggle but the Titans are a safer bet to move the ball when it matters.

Pick: Titans

Bears at Colts (-1)

The Bears’ decision to use a top 10 pick on a third WR instead of helping the offensive line has come back to bite them in a big way. “Generational talent” Caleb Williams has been sacked nine times in two games and has yet to find the end zone. Until Chicago shows it can protect its franchise QB long enough for him to show the world what he’s made of, it’s hard to pick them over anyone, even a beat-up disappointing Colts team.

Pick: Colts

Panthers at Raiders (-6)

It’s over for Bryce Young in Carolina. After being benched two games into his second season, it’s hard to imagine the 2023 No. 1 overall pick regaining his confidence and living up to his potential with the Panthers. Carolina would be wise to trade Young while he still has a little value and try again for a new QB in April. In the meantime, Carolina will turn to 36-year-old Andy Dalton, who hasn’t been good in a long time. Dalton gives the offense a little more juice than Young but not enough to stop the inevitable 0-17 season headed their way.

Pick: Raiders

Dolphins at Seahawks (-4)

Speaking of quarterbacks at a career crossroads, it’s time for Tua Tagovailoa to hang it up. The Dolphins passer suffered his fourth concussion in less than two years last Thursday against the Bills and each time looks scarier than the one before it. At this point, only pride and stubbornness keeps the 26-year-old coming back and it’s time for the Dolphins to start considering other options. There’s enough talent in Miami that the Dolphins could be contenders with the right QB. Unfortunately, Skylar Thompson isn’t that guy and this week will be the start of that point being driven home.

Pick: Seahawks

Niners at Rams (+6.5)

The Rams have never been big on draft picks but it might be time to start shopping QB Matthew Stafford. With star receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both out for a considerable amount of time, the winless Rams have no shot at competing this season and there’s enough desperation out there that another team might give up something for a capable QB. It would also be a nice gesture to let the 36-year-old finish out his career on a team that’s actually playing for something.

The Niners are no stranger to the injury bug either, having already lost Pro Bowlers Christian McCaffery, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle as well as top corner Chavarius Ward, but there’s enough talent there to get by a depleted Rams squad.

Pick: Niners

Lions at Cardinals (+3)

Are the Lions overrated? It’s too early to rush to judgement but, after squeaking by the Rams and losing to the Bucs, it’s reasonable to wonder if we may have gotten ahead of ourselves in Motown. Detroit’s offense is formidable but the defense, despite the offseason overhaul, still gives up too many chunk plays. That’s bad news on the road up against Kyler Murray and rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., who appeared to have found their rhythm last week.

Pick: Cardinals

Ravens at Cowboys (+1)

The Cowboys had us fooled after Week 1. When Dallas mopped the floor with Cleveland in the season opener, skeptics such as myself feasted on crow before spitting in out in laughter after watching New Orleans run roughshod on the Cowboys in Jerry’s Place. Need proof that Dallas’ glass slipper has shattered? The Cowboys are home underdogs against a winless Ravens team coming off a loss to the Raiders. Baltimore is desperate for a win, and if Dallas had a hard time stopping Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara, it’s going to have its hands full with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

Pick: Ravens

Chiefs at Falcons (+3)

With their last two victories coming down to critical errors by their opponents down the stretch (Isaiah Likely’s toe on the line, 4th down PI call on the Bengals late in the 4th), the Chiefs may be more lucky than good but they are still a team you don’t want to let hang around late in games. The same could be said for the Falcons, who snatched victory from the Eagles after Philly left the door open for them. Kirk Cousins showed signs of his old form last week but it’s still too early to think he can win a shootout with Patrick Mahomes.

Pick: Chiefs

Jaguars at Bills (-5)

On paper, Trevor Lawrence vs Josh Allen should be a hell of a matchup except that Allen is still adjusting to life without Stefon Diggs and Lawrence has thrown for less yards than Bo Nix. Doug Pederson might be the worst coach in the league with a Super Bowl ring and it’s hard to see him having a job for much longer if this schneid continues.

Which it will.

Pick: Bills

Commanders at Bengals (-7)

The Bengals are 0-2 coming off a controversial loss to the Chiefs facing a bad Commanders defense and a rookie QB who is allergic to throwing the ball deep. If Washington decides to let Jayden Daniels do something other than check downs and running for his life, this could be competitive but all signs point to Cincy rolling  in what looks like an ugly MNF double header.

Pick: Bengals

Week 2 NFL Picks

 The NFL’s opening week was a rough one for knee ligaments, crooked cops and the Giants’ front office but a relatively decent one for me. 

Let’s see if we can’t do better in Week 2.

Last Week: 9-6-1

Season: 9-6-1

Bills at Dolphins (-2.5)

The Miami-Dade PD’s treatment of Tyreek Hill was a disgusting (yet sadly, typical) display of force. The cops responsible need to be fired and I hope Cheetah sues them for everything they’re worth.

As for tonight’s game, Josh Allen didn’t seem to miss Stefon Diggs too much and the Bills’ defense did a good job of terrorizing Kyler Murray (162 yards passing, sacked four times, one lost fumble) but it’s hard to see them slowing down Tua’s team of track stars even without Raheem Mostert. This will be a fun one but give me the Phins at home. 

Pick: Dolphins 

Colts at Packers (+2.5)

The Packers dodged a bullet with Jordan Love suffering “only” an MCL strain that could keep him out anywhere between 2-6 weeks. The NFL also dodged a bullet that nobody else was seriously injured playing on that glorified slip n’ slide in Brazil. The league has spent years modifying the game to help with player safety but seems stone-stupid when it comes to doing their due diligence on field conditions. 

The Colts might have impressed me the most of all the teams who played last week. They hung with a very good Texans team and Anthony Richardson looks like he shook off his preseason rust. It’s hard to imagine he’ll have much trouble with a Packers defense that let Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley walk all over them. As for Green Bay, it’s now or never for Malik Willis. If he can show off the wheels and big arm that made him an intriguing prospect in 2022, he has a chance to make himself some money down the road. If he can’t, it’s hard to imagine him ever getting another opportunity. After watching him flop the last two plays of the final drive against Philly, my money is on the latter. 

Pick: Colts 

Saints at Cowboys (-6)

I couldn’t have been more wrong about either of these teams last week. Dallas found a way to pay Dak Prescott and then dominate Cleveland on both sides of the ball while New Orleans made a mockery of Carolina. Derek Carr looks like he’s back from the dead but he stands to have a tougher time lighting it up against the Cowboys than he did against the Panthers. Six points might be steep for two good defensive teams and the Saints have had the Cowboys’ number in the past but I’m willing to be wrong yet again.

Pick: Cowboys

Bucs at Lions (-7.5)

It had to be tough for Browns fans to watch what’s left of Deshaun Watson while the man he replaced was lighting it up elsewhere. Baker Mayfield proved, at least for one week, that last year was no fluke. The Lions might be the best team in the NFC but that defense gave up 300+ yards to Matt Stafford despite star wideout Puka Nakua missing most of the game with a knee injury. Detroit still takes it but it’s hard to imagine them slowing the Bucs’ offense down enough to win by more than a touchdown. 

Pick: Bucs

Jets at Titans (+4)

The Jets are going to be in a battle with their expectations all season and their opener against the Niners was a letdown but the schedule eases up for them in the coming weeks, starting with a Titans team that somehow managed to blow a 17-0 lead and lose to the Bears despite not giving up an offensive touchdown. If Will Levis struggled against the Bears’ secondary, he’s really going to hate Sauce Gardner and Co. Jets win a defensive struggle while Aaron Rodgers still finds his footing. 

Pick: Jets 

Niners at Vikings (+6)

The Niners didn’t need Christian McCaffery to run all over the Jets and, regardless of whether CMC suits up this week or not, they should have little trouble on the road against the Vikings. Congrats to Sam Darnold for finally having a good game in the Meadowlands but going from  the Giants to the Niners will prove to be too high of a leap. 

Pick: Niners 

Seahawks at Patriots (+3.5)

Fresh off holding Ja’Marr Chase to three catches for 14 yards in New England’s upset win over Cincinnati, Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez continues his Comeback Player of the Year campaign against human cyborg DK Metcalf and the Seahawks. Seattle may be without running back Kenneth Walker and, if Gonzalez can put the clamps on Metcalf, the Seahawks might struggle to pull away from the Patriots much like they did against the Broncos last week. It’s crazy to think this one could be a toss-up but I think New England, at worst, covers. 

Pick: Patriots 

Giants at Commanders (-1.5)

It’s only been one game but it’s time for the Giants to pull the plug on Daniel Jones. Entering year six, Danny Dimes continues to prove he has no business being an NFL starting quarterback and the fans have already turned on him. Making matters worse, Saquon Barkley (who the Giants let walk to Philly in the offseason) balled out in his Eagles debut. Regardless of who is behind center for Big Blue, I can’t fathom taking the Giants in any matchup this season. Jayden Daniels looks like the real deal and that point will be amplified this Sunday against a bad Giants team. 

Pick: Commanders 

Browns at Jaguars (-3)

Four years ago, Deshaun Watson was a three-time Pro Bowler and one of the league’s rising star QBs. Now, he’s an off-the-field menace and the owner of the worst contract in football. Much like the Giants, the Browns must decide when’s the right time to cut the cord on their bad investment. Jameis Winston has his flaws but he’s a better leader than Watson could ever be and benching their $230 million problem child sends a hell of a message. The Jags might face a similar issue if Trevor Lawrence doesn’t make strides but he’s good enough to beat a Browns team in a state of flux. 

Pick: Jaguars

Chargers at Panthers (+6)

Things were supposed to be different for the Carolina Panthers this season. They brought in a new coach who could develop Bryce Young. They gave Young a slew of new weapons, but all that happened was more of the same. The Panthers were outclassed in every category you can think of last week and I don’t expect that to change against the Chargers. It might be time for a change of scenery for last year’s No. 1 pick. 

Jim Harbaugh cruises to 2-0. 

Pick: Chargers 

Raiders at Ravens (-8.5)

This is far from a must-win situation but this is certainly a narrative game for the loser. If the Raiders continue to struggle, it’s only a matter of time before WR Davante Adams loses his patience and wants out. If the Ravens go down 0-2, there’s going to be a lot of questions surrounding reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, who looked like a dink-and-dunk expert for most of the season-opening loss to Kansas City last week. The Ravens have more talent than the Raiders but 8.5 points is a tough sell until Baltimore can show it can protect their star QB. 

Pick: Raiders 

Rams at Cardinals (-1.5)

Marvin Harrison Jr. flopped in his NFL debut and Kyler Murray’s comments about not being required to get his rookie receiver the ball doesn’t help matters but there should be better days ahead for the former Ohio State star. 

Unfortunately, those days won’t start this Sunday against a Rams team that hung in there with the Lions on the road last week. Los Angeles has the coaching advantage and, until K1 and Maserati get on the same page, the offensive advantage. I have no idea why the Cards are favored in this one but give me L.A. 

Pick: Rams 

Steelers at Broncos (+2.5)

The football gods robbed us of a Russell Wilson redemption game against Denver with Mr. Unlimited being limited to another DNP due to a calf injury. The last time Justin Fields faced the Broncos (October of last season), he dropped 335 yards and four tuddies on Denver’s head as a member of the Chicago Bears. He still lost but my gut tells me things will be different this time against rookie Bo Nix, who had his moments last week but still has a ways to go.

Pick: Steelers

Bengals at Chiefs (-6)

The Bengals’ flop last week at home against what looked like a mediocre Patriots team was perplexing but not as perplexing as the team failing to lock up star receiver Ja’Marr Chase. Chase should be healthier this week after being slowed by an illness last week but the team will likely be without Tee Higgins again. That doesn’t bode well for them facing a Chiefs team that keeps finding new ways to move the ball. 

Pick: Chiefs 

Bears at Texans (-6.5)

“Generational talent” Caleb Williams notched a victory in his regular season debut against the Titans. “The next Patrick Mahomes” showed off all the skills that made him a top pick by throwing for….(checks notes)…93 yards and no touchdowns. It’s possible Williams was confounded by a stout Titans defense but he won’t have the luxury of Will Levis bailing him out this week as he faces actual top-10 QB CJ Stroud. Hopefully, the bright lights of primetime football inspire to be more Josh Allen and less Josh Rosen to at least make this competitive. Either way, I like Houston. 

Pick: Texans 

Falcons at Eagles (-6.5)

Saquon Barkley’s Eagles debut couldn’t have gone better last week as he ran over the Packers to the tune of 132 total yards and three total touchdowns. Barkley will continue to carry Philly until he breaks down or until Jalen Hurts learns to take better care of the ball (2 INTs, one lost fumble last week), whichever comes first. On the flip side, Atlanta clearly overestimated how ready Kirk Cousins and his repaired Achilles were before trotting out their $180 million investment against Pittsburgh. Philly’s defense put Jordan Love on the shelf and, given Cousins’ lack of mobility, Atlanta’s 36-year-old signal caller could easily go from Falcon to sitting duck. 

Pick: Eagles