The 2024 NFL season kicks off in a few hours. So, let's skip the preamble and get after it, starting with the obligatory season predictions.
MVP: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Assuming Hollywood Brown doesn’t miss much time with a shoulder injury and Rashee Rice avoids suspension for his Domenic Torretto impression, this will be the best supporting cast Mahomes has had since Tyreek Hill’s departure and could potentially be his best group yet. It’s chalk and it’s lame to pick Pat but he’s won the award twice before with less than what he has now. If he’s healthy, it’s his to lose.
Offensive Player of the Year: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Last season, Lamb led the league in targets (181) and receptions (135) en route to a 1,749 yard (2nd only to Tyreek Hill), 12 TD (third behind Hill and Mike Evans) campaign. This season, Lamb faces even less competition for touches on a Cowboys team that will need to pass the move the ball downfield. 200 targets is well within in the realm of possibility.
Defensive Player of the Year: Maxx Crosby, DE, Las Vegas Raiders
Dating back to 2011, a pass rusher has won this award in 11 of the last 13 seasons including each of the last four. Crosby seemingly gets better every year and now has Christian Wilkins to take pressure off him on the defensive line. That should help him build on last year’s career-high 14.5 sack campaign.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Marvin Harrison Jr, Arizona Cardinals
Maserati Marv is the best wide receiver prospect the NFL has seen in quite some time and he couldn’t have landed in a better situation. The Cardinals desperately needed a go-to guy for QB Kyler Murray and, 6’3” 209 pounds with 4.4 40 wheels, Harrison fits the bill. Arizona’s defense leaves much to be desired, which means Harrison should see a good amount of targets as the offense tries to keep up each week.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Philadelphia Eagles
Mitchell was arguably the best cover corner in the draft and now joins a revamped Eagles secondary that gets six games against fellow rookie Jayden Daniels, Daniel Jones and Dak Prescott. Philadelphia’s out-of-division schedule also includes features five QBs who finished in the top 14 in interceptions last season. As Mitchell elevates up the depth chart, he should receive plenty of attention from teams trying to avoid Pro Bowler Darius Slay.
Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets
If Rodgers can stay healthy (a huge IF coming off an Achilles tear at 40 years old), he has to be the favorite for this award. The four-time MVP showed signs of decline during his final season in Green Bay in 2022 before making it just four plays last year, but he returns this year with arguably the best offensive line, defense and supporting cast he’s ever played with.
Coach of the Year: Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions
Campbell and GM Brad Holmes have transformed the Lions from decades-long laughingstock to potential Super Bowl contenders. That alone should get Campbell’s name engraved on the award. The challenges for Detroit this season will be a much-improved NFC North and adjusting to not longer being able to fly under the radar but Campbell & Co. have the roster to do it.
AFC Division Winners: Jets, Ravens, Chiefs, Texans
AFC Wild Card: Colts, Dolphins, Browns
NFC Division Winners: Eagles, Lions, Niners, Bucs
NFC Wild Card: Packers, Falcons, Seahawks
AFC Championship: Jets over Chiefs
My faith in the Jets is based on two bold predictions:
- Aaron Rodgers stays healthy all season.
- The Jets end up with Davante Adams at some point this year.
With a strong defense and an embarrassment of riches on offense, the Jets could still get by without No.2 but last year proved they definitely can’t get by without No. 1. If Gang Green can somehow get Hassan Reddick to suit up, that would make their championship hopes even stronger.
Also, we finally get Rodgers vs Mahomes after the latter lost to Zach Wilson last season.
NFC Championship: Eagles over Lions
The Eagles shored up one of the league’s worst pass defenses by drafting rookie defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean as well as bringing back C.J. Gardner Johnson. They also swapped out the disgruntled Hassan Reddick for Bryce Huff, coming off a 10-sack season with the Jets. Oh, and they added one of the league’s best young running backs in Saquon Barkley to an already-great offense. The Eagles will miss Jason Kelce on the offensive line and gambling on the oft-injured Barkley to stay healthy may prove unwise but the pieces are there for Philly to bounce back from last year’s letdown campaign.
Super Bowl: Jets over Eagles
In a grand example of wishful thinking, Rodgers caps off his “F you” season by leading the Jets to their first Super Bowl in 55 years before riding off into the sunset. For years, we’ve written off the Jets because “it’s the Jets and nothing good ever happens to them”, but if that string of bad luck was to ever change, wouldn’t this be the roster that does it?
On to Week 1...(lines courtesy of DraftKings)
Ravens at Chiefs (-3)
The defending champions are 13-5 since the NFL introduced the kickoff game in 2002. Granted, one of those losses was Kansas City last season vs Detroit but the Chiefs were without Pro Bowlers Chris Jones (holdout) and Travis Kelce (knee). Now at nearly full strength (Marquise Brown is out), Patrick Mahomes should be able to improve on his 4-1 record over reigning MVP Lamar Jackson.
Pick: Chiefs
Packers at Eagles (-2)
This game being held in Brazil might be one of the dumbest ideas the NFL ever conceived and the potential safety risks greatly outweigh the rewards. That aside, this will be an exciting showdown between two of the league’s best young QBs: Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love. Both teams made improvements to their awful defenses but veteran experience tips the scales in Philly’s favor.
Pick: Eagles
Steelers at Falcons (-3.5)
Both teams will be lead by aging QBs seeking redemption with their new squads. 36-year-old Kirk Cousins takes over a Falcons team with a trio of young weapons in RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts after his final season in Minnesota was cut short by an Achilles tear. Meanwhile, 35-year-old Russell Wilson is eager to remove the stench of his Broncos tenure while trying to keep fellow new acquisition Justin Fields from taking his job. Atlanta has the offensive advantage and may have just enough defense to limit Mr. Unlimited.
Pick: Falcons
Cardinals at Bills (-6.5)
Well, well, well…how the turntables. A season ago, Bills QB Josh Allen was at the helm of a dangerous offense led by WR Stefon Diggs while the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray was in desperate need of a No. 1 receiver (or really any receiver). Now, Diggs (and partner Gabe Davis) are gone while Murray has a new toy in rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. Buffalo could still pull this one out at home but favoring a team with so many offensive question marks by a touchdown is too risky. Bills win, but Cardinals cover.
Pick: Cardinals
Titans at Bears (-3.5)
No first overall pick has entered into a better situation than Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams will walk into in Chicago. After failing to build around Justin Fields for years, the Bears added a Pro Bowl WR (Keenan Allen), a Pro Bowl RB (D’Andre Swift) and a top 10 overall pick (WR Rome Odunze) alongside four-time 1,000 yard receiver DJ Moore to aid the NFL’s latest “generational talent”. It remains to be seen whether head coach Matt Eberflus, who Bears fans were calling to get rid of last year, can help Williams and company reach their potential.
However, don’t overlook the Titans, who made wholesale changes on both sides of the ball and the coaching staff in the offseason. I don’t expect Caleb Williams to succumb to the home opener jitters but I think this one will be closer than you think.
Pick: Titans
Patriots at Bengals (-8.5)
There isn’t much to talk about here. In the first year of the post-Belichick era, the Patriots look awful in every facet of the game. QB Jacoby Brissett will take over behind arguably the league’s worst offensive line with arguably the league’s worst supporting cast while a patchwork defense tries to slow down Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
This one could get ugly fast.
Pick: Bengals
Texans at Colts (+3)
I had high hopes for an Anthony Richardson redemption season, and it still might happen, but he looked rough in the preseason. Now, he starts his sophomore season off against a Houston team with Super Bowl aspirations. C.J. Stroud will follow up his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign with two new weapons (WR Stefon Diggs and RB Joe Mixon) while fellow Rookie of the Year Will Anderson now has former Vikings Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter at the other end.
A-Rich will have his moments but he’s walking into a buzzsaw here.
Pick: Texans
Jaguars at Dolphins (-3.5)
This one has shootout potential. Salary cap woes and injuries shredded a once-promising Dolphins roster but the team is still going to play fast on offense. On the other side, the Jaguars have Trevor Lawrence $275 million in the offseason hoping he’d finally make good on his “generational” potential. This will come down to whatever quarterback blinks first and my guess is Lawrence, who threw 14 picks last season and now faces a talented Miami secondary.
Pick: Dolphins
Panthers at Saints (-4)
There’s cause for optimism in Carolina. For one, there’s nowhere to go but up after going 2-14 last season. The team brought in a new coach in Dave Caneles and gave last year’s top pick Bryce Young some new weapons in Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette and Jonathan Brooks.
Second, it’s possible the Panthers aren’t the worst team on the field Sunday. Saints QB Derek Carr has one winning season as a starter since 2016 and will drop back behind a patchwork offensive line with limited options beyond Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara. Neither Carr nor head coach Dennis Allen are long for the world in the Big Easy and it’s only a matter of time before the team turns the ball over to rookie Spencer Rattler and starts planing for next season.
After essentially giving away Caleb Williams to get him, Young needs a bounce back season in the worst way and New Orleans is a good place to start.
Pick: Panthers
Vikings at Giants (+1.5)
I feel bad for anyone forced to have Sam Darnold vs Daniel Jones on their television screens. While neither team have high hopes this season, it’s a little insulting oddsmakers see the Giants as home underdogs vs a 27-year-old QB on his fourth team in five seasons. This is a pick ‘em at best, but if you’re letting me take points, I will.
Pick: Giants
Raiders at Chargers (-3)
Jim Harbaugh left a championship team in Michigan to take over a Chargers squad besieged by salary cap issues. The result is a revamped, bare-bones roster that will rely on a ground-and-pound offensive scheme and a talented defense to get by. The Raiders, meanwhile, are on borrowed time. After driving WR Davante Adams crazy all last season by forcing him to catch passes from Jimmy Garoppolo and Aiden O’Connell, Las Vegas is gambling on Gardner Minshew being able to keep Adams content. If he can’t, expect the trade rumors that have surrounded the Pro Bowl wideout for over a year to keep circulating before coming to a head. I need to see more of these teams to get a better grasp on what to expect but Harbaugh’s a winner, so he gets my vote.
Pick: Chargers
Broncos at Seahawks (-6)
It’s Bo Time! After running Russell Wilson out of Denver, head coach Sean Payton tabbed Nix as his QB of the future. Nix played well in the preseason and it wouldn’t surprise me if he has a day against a Seattle defense still adjusting to new coach Mike Macdonald’s scheme but the Seahawks have too much on O to not pull away in this one.
Pick: Seahawks
Cowboys at Browns (-2.5)
This has the makings of a rough season in Dallas. Head coach Mike McCarthy, who should’ve been fired after losing to the seven seed Packers in the playoffs last season, is in the final year of his deal with no extension in sight. Dak Prescott, fresh off leading the league in touchdown passes, is also searching for a new deal that may not come. The defense, once a strong suit, already took some hits from the injury bug while the offensive line is replacing three starters.
Making matters worse, they open up on the road against one of a Browns team that led the league in total defense and pass defense last season. Unless Deshaun Watson absolutely implodes, Cleveland should have this one well in hand.
Pick: Browns
Commanders at Bucs (-3.5)
This could be a fun one. Two former Heisman-winning QBs and two teams that finished in the bottom 10 in pass defense last season going head to head. Jayden Daniels has all the tools to be the best QB Washington has had in awhile but he doesn’t have the pieces around him just yet and the hiring of Dan Quinn isn’t enough to save this porous defense from getting ripped apart by a resurgent Baker Mayfield. I like the Bucs and the over (42.5 points).
Pick: Bucs
Rams at Lions (-4.5)
The Lions and Rams met in the playoffs in Matt Stafford’s first game in Motown since being traded to Los Angeles. That game wound up being a 24-23 barnburner with Detroit escaping for its first playoff win in three decades.
Nine months later, both teams will do it again except Stafford will be missing some crucial parts on the defensive end. Future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald retired and rising star linebacker Ernest Jones was traded in the offseason, leaving an already depleted defensive unit in even worse condition. The Rams used a first-round pick on pass rusher Jared Verse but he’s going to have a tough time against a stout Lions offensive line. Detroit also made additions on defense, most notably rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold from Alabama.
I expect this game to be as good as the one in January but not as close with the Lions putting the league on notice at home.
Pick: Lions
Jets at Niners (-4.5)
A potential Super Bowl matchup is devoid of some of the uncertainties it faced coming into this week. WR Brandon Aiyuk, who held out all offseason, got his new contract. The same for All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams. Christian McCaffrey, who missed all of the preseason with a hamstring injury, is believed to be good to go. So, we turn our attention to the Jets where Aaron Rodgers will suit up for the first time since tearing his Achilles on last season’s Monday night opener. Pass rusher Hassan Reddick? Well, he might not, as he awaits either a trade or a new deal or both.
Even with two deep and talented offenses, it wouldn’t surprise me if this winds up being a defensive struggle. I give the edge to the Niners because they have a few less question marks and one less aging QB coming off a massive injury than their counterpart.
Pick: Niners
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