BoomRoastedSports' picks for tonight's Super Bowl will be coming to you in the coming hours but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure which route Gabe(a diehard Giants fan) and myself(someone who has downplayed the Giants all season and wrote an entire blog confessing his dislike for Eli Manning) are going. Before both of us give you our takes on who we think will win and why, I'm offering up some predictions and things to look out for tonight since the last two weeks of media coverage of Super Sunday have almost exclusively been dedicated to Rob Gronkowski's ankle. First, a quick non-Super Bowl related rant.
Every year, we always anticipate big names being left off the list of guys who get the call to Canton for the NFL Hall of Fame. Even with six names selected every year, there's always somebody well-deserving who gets left out. For years, guys like John Stallworth and Art Monk waited and waited before finally getting in. With Stallworth and Monk now in, the waiting game will now be played by fellow legendary wideouts Cris Carter and Andre Reed. The Reed and Carter snubs are horrible especially Carter, who was one of the five best receivers to ever play the game. The snub I'm most annoyed about? Bill Parcells.
Parcells' credentials are well-documented. He took over teams in New York(both the Giants AND the Jets), New England and Dallas and made them substantially better. He won two Super Bowl rings and there are few coaches in the past three decades that were better on draft day than The Tuna. In Parcells' era, there were maybe two coaches who could even be mentioned in the same breath as him: Bill Walsh and Joe Gibbs(both in Canton). Making matters more frustrating, the Hall came calling for former Jets/Patriots RB Curtis Martin last night, a man who was drafted and coached by......wait for it....wait for it.....Bill Parcells. Martin himself has gone on the record to say that he owes his career to Parcells for giving him an opportunity after Parcells drafted Martin out of the University of Pittsburgh with a 3rd round pick in 1995. Martin is just one of many names that Parcells molded into a star. Parcells made Jeff Hostetler relevant after Hostetler came off the bench for an injured Phil Simms to win a Super Bowl in 1990. More recently than that, Parcells gave a shot to an unknown quarterback out of Eastern Illinois named Tony Romo. You could build Pro Bowl rosters with the list of guys Parcells drafted and developed in his four stops in the NFL. Sure, Parcells bounced around a lot but it says something about the man that he managed to come in, take over a team, and make them a contender almost instantaneously. Parcells took a Cowboys team that had won 15 games in 3 years and brought them to the playoffs with Quincy Carter at QB. That alone should have gotten him the nod. Furthermore, the two coaches going head-to-head in tonight's Super Bowl are disciples from the Parcells coaching tree.....and they have four rings combined.
Instead, Parcells will probably wait til next year to get inducted. Except in 2013, he'll be up against some heavy hitters. As if holdovers Carter, Reed, Charles Haley, Tim Brown, Jerome Bettis, and Kevin Greene weren't daunting enough, the first-year candidates for next year include two all-world offensive linemen in Jonathan Ogden and Larry Allen, a couple Super Bowl-winning pass rushers on the D-line in Michael Strahan and Warren Sapp as well as the late Steve McNair. Parcells should have been a shoe-in to make it on his first try but the voters dropped the ball. Getting in next year just got a lot harder for The Tuna, but it wouldn't be the first time Parcells has emerged victorious from a difficult situation.
On to some thoughts on the Super Bowl.....
For a rematch of one of the greatest Super Bowls in recent memory, the buzz seems to be rather ho-hum. You could chalk that up to the fact that both teams have coaches who won't allow their teams to provide bulletin board material. You could say it's because both QB's, Eli Manning and Tom Brady, are masters of cliche and do interviews as if they are reading off cue cards. It could also be because both teams lack a Shannon Sharpe or Deion Sanders type outgoing personality to make this a more entertaining lead-up to the big game. In an odd but not surprising turn of events, Eli's brother Peyton, who played all of zero snaps this season, got as much press these last two weeks for his eventual upheaval from Indianapolis and possible retirement as the little brother poised to win his second Super Bowl in five years. In fairness, the game is being played in Peyton's backyard but you would think the NFL would have the Colts table all the Peyton talk until after the Super Bowl. The overhyped tiff between Peyton and owner Jim Irsay could have waited a few weeks while the NFL attempted to drum up interest in the final game of a season that got off to a turbulent start.
Brady vs. Manning II should be more thrilling than the first showdown for a number of reasons. The most obvious reason is the fact that, New York's pass rush not withstanding, both defenses are pretty lackluster. The Patriots' defense struggled to pressure opposing QB's even with top pass rusher Andre Carter bringing the pain. Now that Carter is out for the year, the Pats' only hope at slowing opposing passing offenses is good coverage from their myriad of young and talented defensive backs. On the other side, we know Big Blue can get after the QB. That's because the Giants' secondary is so weak, they need that elite front four to make things miserable for quarterbacks. By all intents and purposes, this game will be a shootout with the Giants' big three at wide receiver(Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz) having a distinct advantage over the Patriots' secondary and the Patriots hopefully learning their lesson the second time around and ditching the deep ball that they fell in love with during the Randy Moss era and instead going back to the quick pass, play-it-safe, dink-and-dunk routine with guys like Gronkowski, fellow TE Aaron Hernandez and WR Wes Welker.
If there's an "unsung hero" to watch out for, it's Welker. Lost in Gronkowski's breakout season was the fact that Welker caught 122 passes for nearly 1,600 yards and 9 touchdowns. Nobody is better at finding a crack in the defense and getting open than Wes Welker and if there's a dark horse for Super Bowl MVP, he'd be my choice. If you're looking for a David Tyree-type, out of nowhere guy who has his Super Bowl moment, my guess is name you heard of: Chad Ochocinco. Ocho has stunk up the joint all season as he's shown a lack of commitment to learning the playbook or even running routes correctly but the team showed a little bit of faith in Chad by cutting fellow receiver Tiquan Underwood a day before the Super Bowl to open the door for Ochocinco. Nobody on either team loves the spotlight than Chad Ochocinco and Pro Bowl wideouts like him don't just suddenly forget how to play football. If Ochocinco was going to make an impact on the 2011 New England Patriots, why wouldn't it be today on the biggest stage possible when everyone leasts expects it?
As for the Giants, tight end Jake Ballard is worth watching here. Patriots coach Bill Belichick is smart enough to not let New York's receivers run amok but Ballard has proven to be Eli's safety valve when things get tight. Every Super Bowl has that one guy nobody expects to score a touchdown, be it a guy like Gary Russell or Greg Lewis. My gut tells me Ballard finds the end zone early for the Giants.
Keys for the Patriots: Establish the run. You don't need to be Vince Lombardi to know that, if the opposing defense excels at rushing the passer but is 19th against the run, you should probably utilize the ground game. The Packers gashed the Giants for a few big runs in the Divisional round but, Green Bay being a pass-heavy team and going into panic mode after being down a couple scores, they abandoned the run in favor of trying to get that vaunted pass attack going. The Patriots' best chances of avenging their 2007 defeat will be if they go to the run game early with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead early and keep this Giants' defense on its toes.
The other key? Pressuring Eli Manning. The Packers were torn apart by Manning because they didn't have a pass rush beyond Clay Matthews. The one time they got in Eli's face, however, they forced an interception. The next week, in San Francisco, the Niners kept the game close by constantly getting in Eli's face and hitting him every chance they got. Manning showed great resiliency for a guy who cried his way off the Chargers in 2004(Sorry, couldn't resist) and took an absolute beating from the Niners. The Patriots' defense, by the numbers and on paper, are somewhere in between Green Bay and San Fran's D(statistically, they are better than the Packers but, talent-wise, they are nowhere close to the Niners) and, even though the Patriots can match New York score-for-score, the Pats' can't afford to go into a shootout with this Giants' defensive line constantly coming at them.
Key for the Giants: Stick to the 2007 script. The key to beating New England hasn't changed since New York thwarted New England's perfect season five years ago. You get pressure on Tom Brady and smack him in the mouth, you have a good chance at winning. The Patriots' offensive line is a bit better than it was the last time these two met for the Lombardi, but it's hardly a brick wall. That being said, the Giants' pass rush has a younger, more athletic alternative to Michael Strahan from Super Bowl 42. His name is Jason Pierre-Paul.
JPP is the unquestioned biggest mouth on this Giants defense and this is the game he needs to put up or shut up. He made good on his guarantee to beat Green Bay but the best way to punctuate a great breakout season is to leave your dent in the Super Bowl. On offense, much has been said about the Giants' passing attack, but don't forget that the Giants have an underrated one-two punch in the run game with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Both men played a small part in 2007. This time around, they should grab a bigger piece of the pie.
FIVE FEARLESS PREDICTIONS FOR SUPER BOWL 46
1. Aaron Hernandez will have more catches than Rob Gronkowski: With no real stories to report, the media made Gronkowski's recovery from a high ankle sprain seem like he's trying to come back from a torn ACL. Gronk went from being the next Shannon Sharpe to the next Willis Reed in the span of two weeks. We know Gronkowski is going to be a factor tonight, which is why the Giants will game plan for that. Hernandez's best games come when teams overcompensate on trying to stop Gronkowski. Hernandez also gets a few touches in the run game. If I had to gamble on one tight end to be the bigger star tonight, I'll take the guy who hasn't got a shred of credit the last two weeks over the hobbled superfreak whom the opposing defense will be dying to stop.
Put me down for 6 catches, 72 yards and a score for Aaron Hernandez with Gronkowski adding four catches for 63 yards.
2. Kelly Clarkson will be worse as the National Anthem singer than Christina Aguilera was last year: Christina Aguilera got more press than she needed by botching the national anthem on the most watched show of the year. I don't think Clarkson makes the same mistake. That being said, Clarkson is legendary for being a horrible live performer. With the world watching, Clarkson won't have fancy producers to hide her subpar vocal chops.
Look, I like Kelly Clarkson. I think she's a sweet girl. I also know she's not the second coming of Whitney Houston. The nerves and the need to capture a moment like this(yup, that was intentional) will expose her flaws as a singer. If a world-class vocalist like Aguilera can get the jitters and sound like Cyndi Lauper on the big stage, why can't a glorified Mouseketeer like Clarkson?
While we're on the subject of musical performances at the Super Bowl....
3. Madonna will do something to try to steal the show and renew her 15 minutes of fame during her halftime show: Madonna has promised there will be no "wardrobe malfunctions" like what happened to Janet Jackson a few years ago, which led to the NFL pulling its halftime acts from the rotation of VH1 Classic.
Still, Madonna rose to glory in the 80's and 90's by being the quintessential sex symbol of her generation. She's also more washed up than seaweed. What better way to grab some limelight than doing something a bit risque with millions of eyes on her. Lest we forget, this is the same woman who dry-humped the stage in a wedding dress and tongue-kissed Britney Spears at two separate MTV Video Music Awards so that she could grab a few headlines. There's no doubt the NFL and producers will keep Madonna on a tight leash, but there's no accounting for what the Material Girl once she's out on stage with the cameras rolling.
4. Tom Brady will put on the performance of his life: In the eight years that have passed since Brady won his last ring, here's what's happened on his watch: His rival, Peyton Manning, won his first ring. Peyton's brother, Eli, bested Brady and ruined a 19-0 season by winning his first ring and pulling off the biggest Super Bowl upset in recent memory. Ben Roethlisberger went to three Super Bowls, winning two while possibly raping two women and nearly dying once in between. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees both won Super Bowls while also stealing Brady's title as "the best QB in the game". More importantly, Brady has spent the last two weeks with highlights of that Super Bowl 42 loss on an endless loop. You don't think Brady, a man who has spent his entire career tearing up defenses like he has a personal vendetta, will be playing this game with a chip on his shoulder? You don't think he wants to erase the taste of 2007 by sticking it to this heralded Giants pass rush and putting up Madden numbers against the team that denied him his perfect season? You don't think Brady relishes the opportunity to tie his childhood idol, Joe Montana, with four Super Bowl rings?
Brady and Patriots have proven they won't make the same mistake twice. They also have proven that they are willing to make a statement, if need be. They swept a Jets team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year. The avenged a early season come-from-behind loss to Buffalo by slaughtering the Bills in Week 17. They ran up the score against Denver in the Divisional round because they, like many of us, got tired of hearing about the greatness of Tim Tebow. They got physical with Baltimore in the AFC Championship because all they heard about is how the Ravens have their number. If the Patriots opened 2012 with a list of teams they want to get revenge on, then Eli's Giants will be the last name to cross off. Given how they've handled this whole season, why should we believe the Patriots won't put on a record-setting show with Tom Terrific leading the way?
5. Your Super Bowl MVP will be......Tom Brady: I think Wes Welker has a chance to win this one much like Deion Branch did the last time the Pats won it all, but it's hard to say "Brady will have an all-time performance" and then say he won't win MVP. All Brady did this season was break Dan Marino's passing record with 5,235 passing yards, but Drew Brees passed for more so he got all the credit. All Brady did was lead his team to its fifth Super Bowl in 12 years, but he sat back and watched Rodgers and Brees claim MVP and Offensive Player of the Year while they sat at home eliminated from the playoffs. All Brady has heard about is how Eli Manning has emerged as one of the game's best quarterbacks. In a odd way, the emergence of guys like Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Tebow and Matt Stafford has made Tom Brady....dare I say.....underrated. A lot of that has to do with the fact that Brady lost this matchup five years ago so the idea that we should never doubt Tom Brady in the Super Bowl has gone away. Brady has a chance to right the media's wrongs and climb back to the top of the mountain by besting the guy who started Brady's downward spiral(if you can call it that). In a lot of ways, this is 2001 all over again. Brady enters the Super Bowl with something to prove against a heavily-publicized Super Bowl winning QB looking for his second ring in a short span. I said it before, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out who I'm leaning towards tonight. My money's on Tom Brady putting on a show for the ages and crossing that last name off his list.
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