Fresh off one of the weirdest seasons in football history, the NFL is back tonight for a bigger and potentially more dramatic sequel. Commissioner Roger Goodell, once a champion for player safety and now a much-maligned super villain who acts as a bag man for the owners, added an extra game to the regular season schedule which is sure to add to the sport’s yearly wear and tear.
As if that isn’t a big enough health concern, Covid-19 still looms as the league’s ultimate antagonist as the delta variant continues to infect respiratory systems worldwide while war is being waged between the vaccinated and unvaccinated. Last season, the coronavirus emptied stadiums and put teams into precarious positions. Schedules were shuffled, rosters were weakened and the quality of the game suffered.
The league is taking drastic measures to assure that won’t be the case this time around. There will be no rescheduling of games this season due to outbreaks and those affected by unvaccinated players will be forced to forfeit. It’s an interesting subplot to watch as the season progresses.
As for what might transpire in the games that will actually be played, it’s time for this year’s dose of Predictions Sure to Go Wrong.
NFC East
- Washington: Reigning division champion possesses one of football’s best young cores on both sides of the ball and now adds Ryan Fitzpatrick as an upgrade over the three-headed monster it had at QB last season.
- Dallas*: A potentially historic offense will have to compensate for an uncertain defense, mediocre coaching and a litany of health concerns.
- Philadelphia: I’m in the minority here but I think Philly could be a sneaky contender. Jalen Hurts has plenty of playmakers around him and that defense is better than people think.
- New York Giants: Putting a turnover-prone QB behind the league’s worst offensive line is a recipe for disaster. You throw in a non-existent pass-rush and the Giants might be a bottom-five team this year.
NFC North
- Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers pushed all his chips to the middle of the table after back-to-back years of just missing the Super Bowl, but A-Rod hoisting a second Lombardi trophy still depends on the defense making strides.
- Chicago*: Head coach Matt Nagy’s job security lies on him breaking away from washed up veteran QB Andy Dalton and unleashing rookie Justin Fields on the world.
- Minnesota: Calling it now….this is Russell Wilson’s team by next season.
- Detroit: It’s hard to imagine Dan Campbell succeeding where many coaches have failed, especially with this roster.
NFC South
- Tampa Bay: Age (44) and a weak division aren’t big enough obstacles to stop Tom Brady’s quest for an eighth ring.
- New Orleans: This might a generous prediction for a Jameis Winston-led team playing without its best receiver for the first half of the season, but there’s enough talent here to keep the Saints in playoff contention.
- Carolina: If Sam Darnold can take advantage of the best roster he’s ever been a part of, the Panthers are a sleeper team to make some noise.
- Atlanta: It’s risky to ask 36-year-old Matt Ryan to win a shootout every week to remain competitive but at least Matty Ice throwing to Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts will be fun to watch.
NFC West
- Los Angeles Rams: The biggest threat to Tom Brady making another championship run.
- San Francisco*: An unfortunate string of injuries last season derailed a team that was a bad fourth quarter away from winning the Super Bowl two years ago, but the star power is still there for the Niners to reclaim the NFC throne.
- Arizona: A very good team with the misfortune of being in a division with two potential powerhouses but a healthy JJ Watt could be the piece that wins the West for the Cards.
- Seattle: Aaron Rodgers’ drama in Green Bay and the subsequent filling of vacancies overshadowed Russell Wilson’s own desire to play elsewhere but a slow start could bring that story back to the front page.
AFC East
- Buffalo: The Bills being elevated from long-time afterthought to potential Super Bowl contender this fast scares me a little, but Josh Allen looked great in the preseason and there’s nobody in this division that looks like they can stand in their way.
- New England*: After missing the playoffs for the first time in decades, the Pats broke out the checkbook to shore up some holes but their biggest move might be drafting Mac Jones as their new QB1.
- Miami: It’s hard to have faith in Tua Time when the team (or at least ownership) doesn’t seem to. The rumored desire to bring in Deshaun Watson, who may never play again depending on how his legal troubles go, is mind-boggling after years of tanking to get their franchise QB.
- New York Jets: I think Zach Wilson is the real deal. I think the Jets will be better than people expect. I also think the team will be lucky to win five games. All of these statements could be true.
AFC North:
- Cleveland: The Browns building off last season’s momentum and becoming a contender would be great for the city, but anyone who remembers their 2003 campaign might get flashbacks of the team wilting under the spotlight.
- Baltimore*: Lamar Jackson getting COVID twice and a litany of early injuries in the backfield before the season starts are not great signs for a team that also has question marks at receiver and on defense.
- Pittsburgh: 39-year-old statue Ben Roethlisberger playing behind a patchwork offensive line? No, thank you.
- Cincinnati: If Joe Burrow regains his confidence and the team can keep him upright, the Bengals could move up a spot or two.
AFC South
- Tennessee: The Titans should have the division wrapped up by November, but any playoff run is contingent on a healthy Julio Jones and improvement on the defensive end.
- Indianapolis: A year after tying their championship hopes to Philip Rivers, the Colts now turn to fragile Carson Wentz, who already suffered an injured foot and contracted Covid before the games even matter. Fortunately, a stout defense and RB Jonathan Taylor will keep them respectable.
- Jacksonville: The Jags’ leaky offensive line will make Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season look a lot like Joe Burrow’s first year, but hopefully with a different ending.
- Houston: Until the Texans trade Deshaun Watson, there is LITERALLY nothing to see here.
AFC West
- Kansas City: If you believe in bad juju, the Madden curse and the Super Bowl hangover is the kind of combo that will cause you to lose sleep, but Pat Mahomes is a hell of a jinx buster.
- Los Angeles Chargers*: Stop me if you’ve heard this before but….this could be the Chargers’ year.
- Denver: Relax, Broncos fans. Aaron Rodgers is coming next year.
- Las Vegas: At some point, we have to talk about how much of a disaster Jon Gruden’s return has been.
NFC Wild Card teams: San Francisco, Chicago, Dallas
AFC Wild Card teams: New England, Los Angeles, Baltimore
And The Award Goes to.....
MVP: Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams - Still only 33, the combination of his big arm, Sean McVay’s offensive mind and the best supporting cast he’s ever had should lead to a career year.
Offensive Player of the Year: Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay - Playing for a massive new contract with the league’s reigning MVP on a team in full “Last Dance” mode.
Defensive Player of the Year: Chase Young, DE, Washington - The best player on one of the league’s most promising defensive units, Young and Cleveland’s Myles Garrett are the best options for voters tired of giving the award to Aaron Donald.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh - A number of realistic candidates, including all five first-round QBs, but this comes down to who has the best opportunity to produce and Harris is a three-down bellcow on a team that wants (needs?) to establish the run.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Patrick Surtain, CB, Denver: The draft’s best corner will benefit from a strong pass rush and playing six divisional games against pass-happy teams.
Comeback Player of Year: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina: Dak is already hurt and Saquon is on a pitch count running behind a terrible offensive line. Give me the best dual-threat RB in the league instead.
Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay - The Bucs return every starter from last year’s championship team and the schedule is cupcake soft.
PLAYOFFS!?
AFC Championship: Buffalo over Cleveland: There’s no logical reason to not have Kansas City here except being reluctant to pick the Chiefs to win a third straight AFC championship (and fourth straight appearance). So, I’m going with the two best alternatives but I don’t feel good about it.
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