Mock drafts are a trying exercise with a high failure rate and this year is especially difficult. For starters, there’s no consensus top prospect in the 2022 class. Michigan defensive end Aiden Hutchinson is considered the "safest" prospect in the draft and he’s not even a lock to go in the first two picks.
Secondly, the Jacksonville Jaguars are reportedly split on which direction they’re heading in despite being on the clock since January. Owner Shad Khan is believed to like Hutchinson. GM Trent Baalke is "infatuated" with Georgia’s Travon Walker while new head coach Doug Pederson is looking to protect franchise QB Trevor Lawrence with either Alabama’s Evan Neal or North Carolina State’s Ikem Ekwonu.
The mystery at the top of the draft makes for good television but bad news for prognosticators as the very blog you’re about to read could come crashing down after the first name is called.
Still, attempting to predict the NFL draft and watching it immediately go up in flames has become a yearly occasion on this site, and who are we to buck tradition?
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia - Walker surpassed Hutchinson as the favorite on betting sites early this week, and while that doesn’t make this pick a lock, it’s certainly noteworthy. The thinking here is that Walker’s immense upside and athletic profile trumps Aiden Hutchinson’s production. It’s the same logic Trent Baalke applied when he took Aldon Smith over JJ Watt in 2011 while he was the San Francisco 49ers’ general manager.
3. Houston Texans: Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati - Houston can go in a number of directions here because it has holes everywhere. Thibodeaux, a Jadaveon Clowney clone once considered the best player in the draft, warrants consideration as does either of the top left tackles. Ultimately, the Texans opt for “Sauce”, a 6’2” corner who didn’t allow a single touchdown in college, because there’s less of a chance at securing a shutdown corner later in the draft than there is of finding a pass rusher or a starting tackle.
4. New York Jets: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon - The Jets had pass rush concerns even before last year’s free agent signing Carl Lawson blew out his Achilles ;ast spring. Enter Thibodeaux, a 6’5”, 250 pound athletic freak whose stock is taking hits as teams question his commitment to football. If head coach Robert Saleh can keep Thibs motivated, he’s a potential steal alongside Lawson and fellow first-rounder Quinnen Williams.
5. New York Giants: Ikem “Ickey” Ekwonu, OT, North Carolina State - The draft not being held in New York in a year where both local teams are picking four times in the first 10 picks is a tragedy, but I digress.
As for this selection, the Giants’ plan to turn Daniel Jones into something other than Andy Dalton with quicker feet starts with keeping him upright. Former first round pick Andrew Thomas has struggled on the left side and veteran Nate Solder is a shell of his former self. Ekwonu, meanwhile, is a versatile road-grader who can play inside or outside and help solidify a weak Big Blue front five.
PROJECTED TRADE: Philadelphia Eagles send No. 15, No. 51 and No. 101 (from New Orleans) overall to the Carolina Panthers for No. 6 overall.
The Panthers have several needs, most notably at QB and along the offensive line, and not a lot of picks. After their first round pick at 6, they don’t pick again until the fourth round at 137 overall. Meanwhile, Eagles GM Howie Rosenbaum loves making draft day trades and Philadelphia is reportedly among the busiest teams in terms of trying to trade up.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (from Carolina): Derek Stingley Jr, CB, LSU - Darius Slay is still one of the league’s best corners but the Eagles have struggled to find someone to complement him on the other side. Stingley was a top recruit coming out of high school and showed flashes of dominance as a true freshman at LSU in 2019 before injuries derailed his college career. He shook off any health concerns at his pro day and could go as high as Houston at No. 3.
PROJECTED TRADE: Pittsburgh Steelers trade No. 20 overall, a 2023 first-round pick and a 2024 fourth-round pick to the New York Giants for the No. 7 overall.
Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson. Those are just some of the QBs teams have traded up for in recent years. The success rate on this kind of gamble isn’t high but that doesn’t stop franchises hungry for a new signal caller from rolling the dice seemingly every year.
Despite this year’s QB class being rather weak, several teams will be vying for new passers and few are picking as far down the draft as the Pittsburgh Steelers. With the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger, the death of Dwayne Haskins and the signing of Trubisky, the Steelers are in dire need of a quality addition to their QB room. The Giants, once again, turn another team’s desperation into future draft picks.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (from New York Giants via Chicago): Malik Willis, QB, Liberty - Steelers coach Mike Tomlin expressed a desire to have a more mobile QB after years of getting by with statuesque Big Ben behind center. Willis’ combination of speed and arm strength has drawn comparisons to Mike Vick (best case scenario, minus the jail time) and Jalen Hurts (worst case scenario). The knock on Willis is he didn’t play top tier competition at Liberty and it will take some time for him to adjust at the pro level but his physical attributes should make him the first QB off the board in the top half of the draft.
9. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos): Evan Neal, OT, Alabama - Seattle’s tendency to make oddball first-round picks and ignore team needs frustrated both Russell Wilson and mock drafters alike over the years. Who knew reaching for guys like Rashaad Penny, LJ Collier, Germain Ifedi and Jordyn Brooks would blow up to the point that their former franchise QB wanted out?
Draft failures aside, it would be peak pettiness for the Seahawks to use the first pick acquired from Denver in the Wilson trade on an offensive lineman after years of failing to protect Russ. Evan Neal is a 6’7, 350 pound behemoth who played all over the line at Alabama and is believed to be in consideration for the top pick. Common sense suggests that, if Neal were to fall this far, Seattle should rush to turn his name in but rational draft choices and the Seahawks haven’t been in the same sentence in quite some time.
10. New York Jets (from Seattle): Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame - Hamilton is considered to be the best safety prospect to enter the draft in decades but is expected to slide down the draft because he doesn’t play a premium position and his workout numbers from his pro day were suboptimal. After missing out on the top two corners in this mock draft, the Jets would be wise to stop Hamilton’s free fall and give Robert Saleh another toy to play with. Post-draft grades are typically meaningless but, if the Jets walk out of Day 1 with Thibodeaux and Hamilton, they deserve their share of praise.
11. Washington Commanders: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State - Washington won’t get to address its biggest need because league rules prohibit teams from drafting a new owner.
10. New York Jets (from Seattle): Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame - Hamilton is considered to be the best safety prospect to enter the draft in decades but is expected to slide down the draft because he doesn’t play a premium position and his workout numbers from his pro day were suboptimal. After missing out on the top two corners in this mock draft, the Jets would be wise to stop Hamilton’s free fall and give Robert Saleh another toy to play with. Post-draft grades are typically meaningless but, if the Jets walk out of Day 1 with Thibodeaux and Hamilton, they deserve their share of praise.
11. Washington Commanders: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State - Washington won’t get to address its biggest need because league rules prohibit teams from drafting a new owner.
That glaring issue aside, the team would be wise to add another weapon given the uncertainty surrounding Terry McLaurin’s future in the nation’s capital. Even if the team can get Scary Terry to agree to a long-term deal, the Commanders could use someone who can take defensive pressure away from McLaurin. Wilson succeeded McLaurin at Ohio State and would reunite with former Buckeyes teammate Chase Young in DC.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Jermaine Johnson, DE, Florida State - The Vikings currently have Danielle Hunter and free agent signing Za’Darius Smith on the edge but the two played a combined nine games in 2021 (including playoffs) due to injury. Johnson could work his way into the rotation in the short-term before replacing one of the incumbents long-term.
PROJECTED TRADE: Kansas City Chiefs trade No. 29 and No. 30 overall to Houston Texans for the No. 13 overall.
After trading Pro Bowl WR Tyreek Hill to Miami earlier this year, the Chiefs have a surplus of picks and a huge void at wide receiver. They could stay put and hope someone from a deep class falls to them at the end of the first or cash in for a better prospect. The Texans already have the most picks of any team in the draft so there isn’t much of a need to drop down 16 spots except for the ability to secure another first-round pick.
13. Kansas City Chiefs (from Houston via Cleveland): Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama - Patrick Mahomes’ current “weapons” are Travis Kelce, TikToker JuJu Smith-Schuster and speedy-but-stone-handed former Packer Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Yikes. The Chiefs own six of the first 103 selections after the Hill trade, including three in the top 50, and it makes more sense for them to move up for an elite talent like Williams than sit idle. Before tearing his ACL, Williams was one of the most dynamic playmakers in college football. He doesn’t possess Cheetah’s otherworldly speed but he has star potential once his knee fully heals.
14. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia - Davis would be the Ravens’ first defensive lineman taken in the opening round since Haloti Ngata in 2006, which is fitting because he is of the same monstrous ilk. Davis wowed scouts with an impressive combine performance including running the 40 in 4.8 seconds at 6’6, 341 pounds. The big man doesn’t immediately solve Baltimore’s need for pass rushers but he’s a potentially dominant run stuffer on a defensive line that faces Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon and Najee Harris twice a year each.
15. Carolina Panthers (from Philadelphia via Miami) Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh - The Panthers’ failures at quarterback over the last year are almost comical. The Sam Darnold experiment didn’t work out. Neither did the return of Cam Newton and none of the other passers up for grabs via trade or free agency seemed interested in coming to Charlotte. With head coach Matt Rhule on the hot seat, he might as well go down swinging with the kid he recruited in college. Pickett won All-American honors and the Johnny Unitas award last season but some teams are worried he’s a one-season wonder with small hands. If anyone sees Pickett’s potential, it’s Rhule, but the real challenge will be protecting his latest franchise QB behind a horrid offensive line.
16. New Orleans Saints (from Philadelphia): Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State - The Saints are in the market for a QB but, after losing Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead to Miami in free agency, they have a greater need on the offensive line. Cross isn’t as highly regarded as Neal or Ekwonu but he’s not far behind them. With two of the first 19 picks, a trade-up can't be ruled out but the Saints get lucky here by having Cross fall to them.
PROJECTED TRADE: Green Bay Packers send No. 22 and No. 92 overall to Los Angeles Chargers for No. 17 overall
In 2020, the Packers made an aggressive move up the draft to secure the services of Utah State QB Jordan Love. That decision irked Aaron Rodgers as it came without his prior knowledge and ignored his request for more offensive weaponry. It would set off a two-year drama between the team and its future Hall of Fame QB that is tenuously settled, at best. Now, after trading the best weapon Rodgers ever had in Davante Adams, all eyes will be on how the Packers address their biggest need.
One of the ways Green Bay can stay in A-Rod’s good graces is to show the same aggression in moving up for a receiver that the team showed in acquiring Rodgers’ heir apparent two years ago.
17. Green Bay Packers (from Los Angeles Chargers): Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State - It’s hard to predict where and which order the top receivers in this draft will go but the consensus seems to be that London/Williams/Wilson/Olave are the top four with the others being a cut below. With 11 selections in this draft, the Packers could probably stand to move up even higher if they really want to have their pick of pass catchers but Olave is seen as the best fit for Green Bay’s scheme. He possesses ideal size (6’1, 190) with the deep speed Green Bay is looking for. He’s no Davante Adams. No one is. But he’ll have the opportunity to step in and produce right away.
18. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans): Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah - Philly can go in a number of directions here. It could take a receiver for the third year in a row. It could use an infusion of youth on the either line. It could even trade down to recoup some picks if, as in this mock, they decide to move up earlier in the night. In this scenario, they opt for Lloyd, a sideline-to-sideline menace who draws comparisons to Colts All-Pro Darius Leonard. It’s not a sexy pick but the Eagles have needed help at linebacker for a while now.
19. New Orleans Saints (from Philadelphia): Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss - Jameis Winston isn’t the long-term answer in New Orleans and, with no first-round pick next year, their best shot at a franchise QB will be taking one with either of their top picks this year. Corral isn’t without his warts. There were character issues stemming from his interviews as well as concerns his smallish frame (6’1, 205 pounds) can hold up in the NFL. On the flip side, he has a big arm, didn’t turn the ball over much at Ole Miss and the Saints have some experience working with undersized QBs. The team could also opt for Cincy's Desmond Ridder or North Carolina's Sam Howell.
20. New York Giants (from Pittsburgh): Logan Hall, EDGE, Houston - The Giants’ two biggest needs going into the draft are fixing the offensive line and bolstering their pass defense. New York addressed the former with the fifth pick and, even after a move down, still find a way to add an edge rusher with the fast-rising Hall. Hall wasn’t on the first-round radar early in the draft process but, after running a 4.8 40 at 6’6, 275 pounds and spending a good portion of his college career in opposing backfields (13 tackles for loss, six sacks, 30 pressures last season), his stock is going up. The Giants brought Hall in for a meeting early this week with hopes of grabbing him on Day 2 but it’s looking like he won’t last that long.
21. New England Patriots: Zion Johnson, G, Boston College - Bill Belichick is the deacon of draft night dealing. So, don’t be surprised if this pick finds its way in another team’s hands. If they stay put, they could use a corner to replace the departing JC Jackson or get Mac Jones another weapon. They instead go with Zion Johnson, a local product and the best offensive guard in the draft, to help keep Money Mac safe.
22. Los Angeles Chargers (from Green Bay via Las Vegas): Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa - Having addressed the defense with the additions of Khalil Mack and JC Jackson earlier in the spring, the Chargers can turn their attention to the offensive side of the ball. A pass catcher who could work in three-wide sets and eventually usurp Keenan Allen is a possibility, as is reaching for a bruising runner to pair with Austin Ekeler. However, after hitting a home run with Rashawn Slater last year, continuing to build the offensive line and giving rising star Justin Herbert more time to throw is the best option. Penning is the last of the sure-fire first-round tackles and he would fit nicely on the right side, where the struggled with Bryan Bulaga and Storm Norton.
23. Arizona Cardinals: George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue - The Cardinals’ once-promising defense has taken some hits over the years. The team lost pass rusher Chandler Jones in free agency a year after losing Hasaan Reddick and 33-year-old JJ Watt can’t seem to stay on the field. Arizona is believed to be smitten with Karlaftis, who had a productive career at Purdue (93 tackles, 27 for loss, 12 sacks, three forced fumbles and six passes defensed in the last two seasons).
24. Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa - Dallas has needs at receiver and all over the defense but the key to their success has always been a strong offensive line. That hasn’t been the case lately due to injuries and, after losing Conner Williams and La’el Collins in free agency, there are some holes to fill. The University of Iowa has a history of producing quality offensive linemen (Tristan Wirfs, James Daniels, Riley Reiff, Marshall Yanda in recent years) and Linderbaum is the latest Hawkeyes standout. The reigning Rimington Trophy winner is considered the best center in the draft and earned the highest grade of any player from Pro Football Focus last season (95.4).
PROJECTED TRADE: The Seattle Seahawks trade No. 40 and No. 109 to the Buffalo Bills for No. 25 overall.
The Bills don’t have a ton of dire needs and this is the part of the draft where teams looking to jump back into the first round will start working the phones. With two second-round picks in this year’s draft, the Seahawks have the ammo to move up.
25. Seattle Seahawks (from Buffalo): Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati - The Seahawks can’t go into this season with Drew Lock as their answer at QB, and with few top prospects left and several teams in need of a passer, Seattle would be wise to pounce here. Ridder’s accuracy has been scrutinized but scored a 59 percent on “accurate/on target” passes of five or more yards, sixth in the country and second only to Kenny Pickett in this draft class. He’s a big guy (6’4, 215) who can run and, accuracy concerns not withstanding , the need for quarterbacks will likely push him into the first round.
26. Tennessee Titans: David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan - The Titans are no strangers to taking elite talent whose stock drops due to injuries. They opted for Jeffrey Simmons in 2019 despite a knee issue and didn’t let Caleb Farley’s bad back stop them from calling his name last year. Ojabo was a potential top-10 pick before tearing his Achilles at his pro day. He’s certain to miss the first few weeks of the season but, if he can return to being the menace he was at Michigan, this is the steal of the draft.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M - I’ve had the Bucs taking a QB here for quite some time, even after 43-year-old Tom Brady unretired, but I don’t think Tampa risks angering the GOAT by taking his heir apparent when they're in win now mode. Green isn’t a flashy pick but he's arguably the best offensive lineman available and you can never go wrong investing in keeping Tom Brady upright.
28. Green Bay Packers: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia - Even after trading up for a receiver, I’m fine with the Packers using their other first-round pick on another wideout. Sammy Watkins, Robert Tonyan and Randall Cobb are the team’s top weapons and all of them come with injury concerns. Doubling down on the receiver need would address a long-standing problem area and would be a gesture of good faith in their fragile relationship with Aaron Rodgers.
That being said, Green Bay has other needs and bringing in another pass rusher to pair with Rashan Gary, Kenny Clark and Preston Smith is a nice move. Wyatt was a unsung hero on a Bulldog defensive line that also included top pick Travon Walker and combine standout Jordan Davis, but scouts love his quick first step and think he can be an immediate impact player on the interior.
29 and 30. Houston Texans (from Kansas City): Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State and Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State - In the interest of saving space, I combined these two picks since their back-to-back.
Watson is my favorite player in this draft, a 6’5, 210 pound menace whose 9.96 Relative Athletic Score (which grades a prospect’s measurements, such as height, weight, 40 time, vertical and three-cone drills, compared to their peer group) was the 11th-highest of the last 35 years.By comparison, Hall of Fame receiver Calvin Johnson scored a 10 and Julio Jones put up a 9.97. He’s a small school standout who can develop into a go-to guy once he gets adjusted to the pro level.
Ebiketie fills a pass rushing need the Texans could easily address with the No. 3 pick. Pro Football Focus gave him the highest defensive grade for a Penn State player since reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Micah Parsons in 2019. A trio of “Sauce” Gardner, Watson and Ebikitie gives Houston some nice building blocks on Day 1.
31. Cincinnati Bengals: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida - The Bengals used free agency to address a woeful offensive line that let Joe Burrow get pummeled all season. Now, they must work on a pass defense that was torched by Matt Stafford in the Super Bowl. Elam’s stock is on the rise and he could leap Washington’s Trent McDuffie as the third corner off the board. Elam ran a 4.39 40 at 6’2, 196 pounds and should eventually take over for the oft-criticized Eli Apple in the defensive backfield.
32. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams): Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington - Cornerback Jeff Okudah looks like a bust after failing to stay healthy in his two pro seasons. Even if the 3rd overall pick from the 2020 draft bounces back, the Lions need someone on the opposite end to stand tall against a pass-happy NFC North division. McDuffie could certainly go higher than this, perhaps even in the top half, but other needs and trades pushed him down in this mock. Detroit would be ecstatic if it could pair a high motor pass rusher in Aiden Hutchinson with a potential shutdown corner who allowed just 11 yards in coverage last season.
29 and 30. Houston Texans (from Kansas City): Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State and Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State - In the interest of saving space, I combined these two picks since their back-to-back.
Watson is my favorite player in this draft, a 6’5, 210 pound menace whose 9.96 Relative Athletic Score (which grades a prospect’s measurements, such as height, weight, 40 time, vertical and three-cone drills, compared to their peer group) was the 11th-highest of the last 35 years.By comparison, Hall of Fame receiver Calvin Johnson scored a 10 and Julio Jones put up a 9.97. He’s a small school standout who can develop into a go-to guy once he gets adjusted to the pro level.
Ebiketie fills a pass rushing need the Texans could easily address with the No. 3 pick. Pro Football Focus gave him the highest defensive grade for a Penn State player since reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Micah Parsons in 2019. A trio of “Sauce” Gardner, Watson and Ebikitie gives Houston some nice building blocks on Day 1.
31. Cincinnati Bengals: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida - The Bengals used free agency to address a woeful offensive line that let Joe Burrow get pummeled all season. Now, they must work on a pass defense that was torched by Matt Stafford in the Super Bowl. Elam’s stock is on the rise and he could leap Washington’s Trent McDuffie as the third corner off the board. Elam ran a 4.39 40 at 6’2, 196 pounds and should eventually take over for the oft-criticized Eli Apple in the defensive backfield.
32. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams): Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington - Cornerback Jeff Okudah looks like a bust after failing to stay healthy in his two pro seasons. Even if the 3rd overall pick from the 2020 draft bounces back, the Lions need someone on the opposite end to stand tall against a pass-happy NFC North division. McDuffie could certainly go higher than this, perhaps even in the top half, but other needs and trades pushed him down in this mock. Detroit would be ecstatic if it could pair a high motor pass rusher in Aiden Hutchinson with a potential shutdown corner who allowed just 11 yards in coverage last season.
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