Season: 82-64-4
Titans (+3.5) over Packers
The Packers are coming off an upset win over the Cowboys thanks to a combination of bad play-calling, costly mistakes and the element of surprise. If Christian Watson’s three-touchdown breakout wasn’t a fluke, Green Bay has a shot at turning things around, but Tennessee isn’t foolish enough to get into a shootout with the Packers like Dallas did. The Titans will look to control the clock with Derrick Henry and the return of DT Jeffrey Simmons gives them an X-factor on defense. Titans crush the Packers’ momentum before it starts and pull off the “upset”.
Bears (+3.5) over Falcons
The Bears are currently at the bottom of the NFC standings, and yet, one win separates these two teams. Justin Fields is arguably the best player on the field out of both squads (at least until Atlanta figures out what to do with Kyle Pitts and Drake London), so I’m leaning towards Chicago.
Bills (-7.5) over Browns
Nothing says “home game” like having a team from Buffalo play a team from the Midwest in Detroit but six feet of snow in west New York forced the league’s hand. Once the kings of the AFC, the Bills are on a two-game losing streak and desperately need this one to take the division back from Miami.
Eagles (-6.5) over Colts
Jeff Saturday winning his coaching debut probably has more to do with how putrid Las Vegas is than any revelations he’s offering on the sidelines, but if he can upset the 8-1 Eagles, they should name the Coach of the Year award after him. I don’t see that happening though.
Jets (+3.5) over Patriots
The Patriots are the Jets’ only loss since late September and but Gang Green is coming off a bye week after a huge upset over Buffalo. They’re rested and momentum is on their side. New York evens the series here.
Rams (+2.5) over Saints
With Cooper Kupp pretty much done for the season and the Rams at 3-6, I was ready to write off the defending champs, but this Saints team is somehow worse and Dennis Allen’s insistence on sticking with Andy Dalton at QB should cost him his job. Both of these teams suck but I’ll take the points.
Giants (-3.5) over Lions
Oddsmakers still don’t believe in the Giants, hence the low spread at home against the putrid Lions. Maybe it’s a lack of faith in the league’s 22nd-ranked scoring offense? Maybe it’s because Danny Dimes is a basically a rich man’s Taysom Hill? Maybe they still believe in Detroit? Regardless of the reason, even New York’s Tecmo Bowl offense should be able to move the ball on one of the worst defensive units in football.
Ravens (-12.5) over Panthers
The three of you who read this piece every week know how leery I am of double-digit spreads but banking on Baker Mayfield to keep this game close is a fool’s errand. I’d be shocked if Baltimore doesn’t rout here.
Commanders (-3) over Texans
Despite everything that’s happened on and off the field, Washington is still in the playoff mix. As for Houston, only pride stands between the Texans and the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft.
Raiders (+2.5) over Broncos
This is a toss-up between two colossal disappointments but both Derek Carr and Josh McDaniels are playing to keep their jobs next season, so desperation is on their side.
Vikings (+1.5) over Cowboys
For weeks, I knocked the Vikings as a team that padded its record on beating bad teams. Then, they beat Buffalo in arguably the best game of the season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys choked against a Packers team that’s found ways to lose all season. If Dallas couldn’t stop rookie Christian Watson, what hope do they have against Justin Jefferson?
Bengals (-3.5) over Steelers
The lone hope for the Steelers is TJ Watt disrupts Cincinnati’s passing game enough to keep this close. Otherwise, this is going to get ugly.
Chargers (+5.5) over Chiefs
I don’t know why I still believe in the Chargers, who haven’t beaten a good team all season, but they always play the Chiefs hard and they are getting some weapons back while KC is short-handed. Chiefs win but LA keeps it close.
Niners (-8) over Cardinals
The only question about this game is whether Kyler Murray plays or not. If he suits up, Arizona could, at the very least, cover against a San Fran team still figuring things out offensively. If it’s Colt McCoy, it’s over by halftime.
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