Last Week: 8-4-1
Season: 72-60-4Falcons (-2.5) over Panthers
There’s little incentive for Carolina to win this game and any movement in Baker Mayfield’s direction as the starting QB would indicate they’re going into the tank. Falcons should win but the bigger issue is just how horrid this TNF slate has been thus far.
Buccaneers (-2.5) over Seahawks
Geno Smith is one of the six quarterbacks Tom Brady will likely have to face off against in the playoffs, so a win here would be a huge boost to his confidence and a huge L for everyone who got jokes off at the 45-year-old’s expense this season.
Also, on paper, the first regular season NFL game in Germany looks better than anything the league has sent to London. Read into that what you will.
Vikings (+6.5) over Bills
The Vikings’ good fortune continues as, just when it looked like they were going to face real competition for the first time this season, Bills star QB Josh Allen might sit this one out. If Allen can’t go, Buffalo’s explosive offense received a massive downgrade with Case Keenum behind center, opening the door for a Minnesota upset.
(Update: Allen is expected to start.)
Bears (-3) over Lions
Given the state of the rest of the NFC and the rise of QB Justin Fields, you can’t rule out the Bears making a run towards a playoff spot. They’re 1.5 games behind San Francisco for the 7th seed and now get a Detroit team that lost the momentum it showed earlier in the season.
Titans (-2.5) over Broncos
This could be a potential trap game for the Titans. The Broncos are sneaky good on defense, Ryan Tannehill might be a little rusty after missing the last two games and Tennessee plays again in four days. I’m still taking Tennessee but I don’t feel good about it.
Chiefs (-9.5) over Jaguars
Chiefs have a shot at the AFC’s one seed and Jacksonville hasn’t been good in months. Any chance of this game being close is contingent on Trevor Lawrence showing the skills that made him a No. 1 overall pick.
Dolphins (-3.5) over Browns
Miami hasn’t lost since getting Tua back while Cleveland is coming off its first win since September. The Browns’ best chance is unleashing their one-two punch on the ground to keep the Dolphins’ O off the field.
Giants (-2.5) over Texans
The Texans are currently leading the Bryce Young Sweepstakes and have little incentive to put up a fight against a Giants team trying to secure a playoff spot. This spread should really be higher.
Steelers (-1) over Saints
TJ Watt is back, Minkah Fitzpatrick isn’t and that’s probably more than enough to hold off the Saints’ battered offense led by soon-to-be analyst Andy Dalton.
Bears (-3) over Lions
Given the state of the rest of the NFC and the rise of QB Justin Fields, you can’t rule out the Bears making a run towards a playoff spot. They’re 1.5 games behind San Francisco for the 7th seed and now get a Detroit team that lost the momentum it showed earlier in the season.
Titans (-2.5) over Broncos
This could be a potential trap game for the Titans. The Broncos are sneaky good on defense, Ryan Tannehill might be a little rusty after missing the last two games and Tennessee plays again in four days. I’m still taking Tennessee but I don’t feel good about it.
Chiefs (-9.5) over Jaguars
Chiefs have a shot at the AFC’s one seed and Jacksonville hasn’t been good in months. Any chance of this game being close is contingent on Trevor Lawrence showing the skills that made him a No. 1 overall pick.
Dolphins (-3.5) over Browns
Miami hasn’t lost since getting Tua back while Cleveland is coming off its first win since September. The Browns’ best chance is unleashing their one-two punch on the ground to keep the Dolphins’ O off the field.
Giants (-2.5) over Texans
The Texans are currently leading the Bryce Young Sweepstakes and have little incentive to put up a fight against a Giants team trying to secure a playoff spot. This spread should really be higher.
Steelers (-1) over Saints
TJ Watt is back, Minkah Fitzpatrick isn’t and that’s probably more than enough to hold off the Saints’ battered offense led by soon-to-be analyst Andy Dalton.
Cowboys (-3.5) over Packers
A high draft pick is Aaron Rodgers' best shot at getting a top tier weapon and the Packers are currently projected to select 8th in April's draft. In true Packers fashion, Green Bay will find a way to win this game but I refuse to pick this team the rest of the season.
Colts (-4.5) over Raiders
The Colts caught a lot of shit for hiring Jeff Saturday as their head coach but, if you’re going to bring in a former player with no coaching experience, there are worse ways to make a debut than against the lowly Raiders. I like Indy to at least cover here.
Rams (-3) over Cardinals
My condolences to anyone that is stuck with Colt McCoy vs John Wolford on their TV screen. Rams have the better defense, so they get the nod in the Battle of the Backups.
Chargers (+7.5) over Niners
The Chargers have been beat up and underwhelming this year but thinking a Jimmy G-led Niners team is more than a touchdown better is criminal. I’m sure I’ll eat those words but I like LA here.
Eagles (-11) over Commanders
I’m always leery of double-digit spreads in obvious one-sides matchups but the Commanders are a shitshow and the Eagles could use a dominant win.
Colts (-4.5) over Raiders
The Colts caught a lot of shit for hiring Jeff Saturday as their head coach but, if you’re going to bring in a former player with no coaching experience, there are worse ways to make a debut than against the lowly Raiders. I like Indy to at least cover here.
Rams (-3) over Cardinals
My condolences to anyone that is stuck with Colt McCoy vs John Wolford on their TV screen. Rams have the better defense, so they get the nod in the Battle of the Backups.
Chargers (+7.5) over Niners
The Chargers have been beat up and underwhelming this year but thinking a Jimmy G-led Niners team is more than a touchdown better is criminal. I’m sure I’ll eat those words but I like LA here.
Eagles (-11) over Commanders
I’m always leery of double-digit spreads in obvious one-sides matchups but the Commanders are a shitshow and the Eagles could use a dominant win.
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