Week 5 NFL Picks

There’s no explanation for last week, which was an abomination. We just need to be better.

Last week: 3-12-1
Season: 25-37-2

Bucs at Falcons (-2.5)

Baker Mayfield is having an MVP caliber season. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both top four in receiving touchdowns while it’s only a matter of time before rookie Bucky Irving wrestles the starting RB away from Rachaad White. Plus, it’s hard to trust a Falcons offense that features journeymen Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud over former  top-10 pick Kyle Pitts. All of this tells me that Tampa Bay will take this one, which means I’m probably wrong.

Pick: Bucs

Jets at Vikings (in London) (-2.5)

Just as everyone predicted , the Minnesota Vikings are the only undefeated team left in the NFC and Sam Darnold leads the league in touchdown passes. Sammy Slings gets will have his work cut out for him here against a Jets pass defense that’s allowing the second-fewest yards through the air and has only given up two touchdowns all year. The Vikings defense isn’t too shabby either and Aaron Rodgers has struggled to get going against Minnesota in the past. This is shaping up to be a low-scoring, ugly affair, which is on brand for these early London games. Vikings win at “home” in what will likely be the last Jets game before Davante Adams comes to town.

Pick: Vikings

Ravens at Bengals (+2.5)

It appears the reports of Baltimore’s demise were premature after the Ravens bounced back from an 0-2 start to currently sit at .500. The same can’t be said for the Bengals, who were lucky to escape Carolina last week for their first win.

Both teams have gaping holes defensively. Opposing QBs have thrown for at least 275 yards in three of the Ravens’ last four games while the Bengals’ run defense has been getting gashed all season. The latter will be particularly troubling today as Baltimore’s offense is built around living Minotaur Derrick Henry and the league’s best running QB Lamar Jackson. Ravens control the clock and do whatever they can to keep Joe Burrow off the field.

Pick: Ravens

Browns at Commanders (-3)

 

The Cowboys, Giants and Raiders have a combined five wins. Three of those five have come against the Browns. That’s the Cleveland Browns’ season in a nutshell: they’re a bad team that other bad teams can get right against. Things will likely go from bad to worse if or when the team trades away WR Amari Cooper before the deadline and/or continues to stick with Deshaun Watson at QB.

Cleveland’s biggest loss is the benefit of the doubt and, even against a Commanders team with a middling defense and a rookie QB still learning on the job, I can’t bring myself to give them the nod.

Pick: Commanders

Bills at Texans (-1)

Are we sure the Texans are good? Houston is sitting at 3-1 and all three wins seemed like they were lucky to escape with a victory against teams they likely aren’t going to see in the postseason. The Bills will be the best team the Texans have faced thus far and Buffalo could use a bounce-back game after getting throttled by Baltimore last week.

Bills with the “upset”.

Pick: Bills

Panthers at Bears (-4)

I’ve faded the Bears all season because I don’t think Caleb Williams is as good as advertised and I don’t believe Chicago’s offensive line can protect him even if he was. The Panthers’ offense is much improved with Andy Dalton at center and rookie WR Xavier Legette filling in for Adam Thielen. My gut tells me this becomes a shootout and I fully expect the rookie “generational talent” to blink first. Panthers keep this within a field goal.

Pick: Panthers

Colts at Jaguars (-3.5)

 

Speaking of veterans who give their team a better chance to win than their younger counterpart, Joe Flacco filling in for Anthony Richardson feels like an upgrade. For all of Richardson’s talent, his decision-making is poor and his accuracy is all over the place. Flacco is, at the very least, a steady hand behind center.

Meanwhile, this feels like the final nail in Doug Pederson’s coaching coffin. Despite his denial, Pederson has lost this locker room and an 0-5 start pretty much ends Jacksonville’s season.

Pick: Colts 

Dolphins at Patriots (+1.5)

It might be over for Jerod Mayo in New England.

When people are throwing around the word “mutiny” in your first season (even if they were being a bit dramatic), it’s tough to have faith you’ll right the ship. The Dolphins are a lost cause, too, but at least they’ll get Tua back in a few weeks and the AFC East is weak enough that Miami can still make a run.

Pick: Dolphins

Cardinals at Niners (-7.5)

I had high hopes for the Cardinals once the Kyler Murray-Marvin Harrison Jr connection started to get cooking but the offense looks like a one-trick pony. The injury bug has feasted on the Niners’ offense but the defense is still steady and opposing QBs have struggled to get busy against San Francisco all season (Sam Darnold being the lone exception). Without a proven complement to Maserati Marv, Murray is going to struggle to keep up with even a batter Niners offense.

Pick: Niners

Raiders at Broncos (-2.5)

 

This website might suck at picking winners every week but, boy, were we on the money with the Davante Adams trade call in Week 1. Adams likely won’t suit up for the Raiders again, and it wouldn’t matter if he did this week against top-notch shutdown corner Pat Surtain. The Broncos’ defense has carried Denver while Bo Nix is still finding himself on offense and I expect that to still be the case here.

Pick: Broncos

Giants at Seahawks (-7)

I already had zero faith in the Giants but on the road without their two best (only) offensive weapons against a solid Seahawks team?

I won’t even waste any more of your time with this one.

Pick: Seahawks


Packers at Rams (+3)

 

The Packers found a dozen different ways to shoot themselves in the foot last week and still nearly crawled to the finish line. Despite spotting Minnesota a 28-0 lead, throwing three picks, missing a pair of field goals and committing a costly fumble, the Packers still only lost by two to the best team in the NFC. There’s no consolation prizes in the NFL but getting a Rams team ravaged by injuries feels like one. Even without Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, Jordan Love and company should roll here.

Pick: Packers

Cowboys at Steelers (-3)

A matchup that looked promising before the season now looks one-sided even after Pittsburgh came down to Earth a little last week. Dallas’ offensive line will struggle to keep TJ Watt from camping in their backfield and no Micah Parsons kills this Cowboys defense.

This might get ugly.

Pick: Steelers

Saints at Chiefs (-5.5)

Down both starting receivers and their starting running back, it’s a little wild to see Kansas City favored by more than a field goal, especially when oddsmakers loved New Orleans just a couple weeks ago. Patrick Mahomes is HIM in its truest form but this offense was struggling even before Rashee Rice went down with a knee injury. You always have to be leery of weird things happening when playing the Chiefs in prime time but the Saints’ defense is good enough to at least keep it close.

Pick: Saints