Week 4 NFL Picks

 I appreciate anyone still following these picks after the last two weeks. The good news is Week 3 was better than Week 2. The bad news is it was still abysmal. With no clear alpha after three weeks, this has been a tough season to call so far.

Anyway, on to Week 4.

Last week: 7-9
Season: 22-25-1

Cowboys at Giants (+5.5)

The Cowboys have won 13 of the last 14 against the Giants with the last victory that was within eight points dating back to October of 2020. Dallas is also desperate for a win after losing the last two in embarrassing fashion (the Ravens loss last week wasn’t as close as the score suggests). New York showed some flashes of competence in a win over Cleveland, but so did Dallas in Week 1 and we saw how they followed that up. Both of these teams aren’t very good and, while Dak is anticipating fans jumping off the bandwagon, that probably doesn’t happen this week.

Pick: Cowboys

Broncos at Jets (-8)

The Broncos pulled off a stunner last week, comfortably beating the Bucs on the road in a game they never trailed in. Now, the road trip continues against a well-rested Jets team coming off its best performance of the season last Thursday versus New England. If that’s not enough to lean towards Gang Green, keep in mind that Aaron Rodgers has Sean Payton in his sights after the Broncos coach took shots at Jets OC and Rodgers’ buddy Nate Hackett last offseason. Rodgers missed the opportunity to shut Payton up last season when he tore his Achilles, but there are few people in the NFL pettier than A-Rod and I expect him to build on his comeback season.

Pick: Jets

Bengals at Panthers (+4.5)

The biggest surprise of the season thus far was Andy Dalton restoring life to a dormant Panthers offense by dropping 319 yards and three touchdowns on the Raiders last week, which was the first time a quarterback has thrown for 300+ yards and three TDs all season. I don’t expect The Red Rifle to repeat that performance in a revenge game against Cincinnati but it’s hard to trust a 0-3 Bengals team with losses to New England and Washington on its résumé. Panthers should, at the very least, cover here.

Pick: Panthers

Vikings at Packers (-3)

After initially feared to be lost for a month with a MCL strain, Packers QB Jordan Love is expected to make his triumphant return after missing only two games. Green Bay won both those games by protecting Malik Willis with the run game and strong defensive efforts. That should be the strategy again this week in their biggest challenge of the season: a divisional showdown with undefeated Minnesota. I’ve underestimated the Packers the past two weeks, much to my own demise, and a potentially rusty Love playing at less than 100 percent gives me cause to do that again.

The Vikings are coming off wins against the defending NFC champion Niners and a solid Texans team. They’ll have Jordan Addison back opposite Justin Jefferson as well as Aaron Jones returning to Lambeau Field for the first time since being cut in the offseason. I might regret it, but I’m fading the Pack again.

Pick: Vikings

Eagles at Buccaneers (+1)

It’s a bit surprising Tampa Bay isn’t favored here. They’re at home against a poorly coached Eagles team that hasn’t had an impressive win all season and is without its top two wideouts. Perhaps it’s the residual effect from the Bucs laying an egg against the Broncos or oddsmakers being overly impressed with Philly’s win over New Orleans but I don’t see the Eagles having enough firepower to keep up here.

Pick: Bucs

Steelers at Colts (+2)

I had high hopes for Indy this year but injuries and Anthony Richardson’s stalled development makes them one of the most disappointing teams in the league thus far. Meanwhile, the surprising 3-0 Steelers could walk into their Week 9 bye still undefeated thanks to a suddenly cupcake schedule.

As long as Justin Fields continues to play safe football and let the defense carry, the Steelers will be satisfied winning ugly. A victory here would be the Steelers’ third road win in four games and, sooner or later, they will have to be in the conversation as potential title contenders.

Pick: Steelers



Jaguars at Texans (-6)

After an embarrassing loss to Buffalo on national television Monday night, the temperature beneath Jaguars coach Doug Pederson’s seat had to be scorching. Jacksonville is 0-3 and $275 million man Trevor Lawrence looks like one of the worst QBs in the league. It’s possible that a shaky Texans team coming off a loss to the Vikings and missing a couple weapons on offense (RB Joe Mixon, WR Tank Dell) gets caught slipping here but there’s a greater likelihood the Jags are a bottom-five team already thinking about next season.

Pick: Texans

Saints at Falcons (-2.5)

The Saints’ glass slipper shattered last week against the Eagles while the Falcons were a fourth down conversion (and proper officiating) away from knocking off the Super Bowl champs in primetime. I’m not ready to write off New Orleans yet but they are banged up and Atlanta needs this one to keep their hopes of contending in a surprisingly competitive NFC South alive.

Pick: Falcons

Rams at Bears (-3)

Caleb Williams finally found the end zone after 11 quarters of looking more like Jackson Mahomes than Patrick Mahomes. That’s the good news. The bad news is the Bears still lost while took four more sacks and threw two more picks, giving him 13 and 4 on the season in those respective categories. Until Chicago can protect Williams and/or prized free agent addition D’Andre Swift can show something resembling a pulse, the offense will never reach its potential. The Rams may not have the defense of years past but it doesn’t take much to expose the Bears’ walking turnstile offensive line. If not having Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua didn’t stop the Rams last week, it shouldn’t stop them this week.

Pick: Rams

Patriots at Niners (-10.5)

A lethal one-two punch of the Madden Curse and the Super Bowl hangover has the Niners on the ropes just three games into the season. Christian McCaffrey may not see the field this season. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are fighting through injuries while Brandon Aiyuk continues to show he doesn’t want to be in San Francisco by throwing tantrums at practice.

That being said, it’s hard to imagine Brock Purdy & Co. not snapping a two-game losing streak against arguably the worst team in football. The Patriots have no weapons, no defense and can’t protect whoever is behind center. Even on 10 days rest, New England doesn’t stand a chance.

Pick: Niners

Commanders at Cardinals (-3.5)

This has the potential to be a fun one. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels looks like the best of this year’s rookie crop so far while fellow Heisman winner Kyler Murray’s growing chemistry with rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. is bringing excitement to the desert. Arizona will be without TE Trey McBride but Washington’s defense is so bad that it might not matter. The Cardinals’ defense isn’t much better but they’re a scrappy bunch and they’ve kept Arizona competitive.  Here’s hoping this one lives up to the hype.

Pick: Cardinals

Chiefs at Chargers (+7)

The Chiefs are a conspiracy theorist’s wet dream. First, Kansas City beats Baltimore thanks to a toe on the line on the last play of the game. Then, back-to-back victories over Cincinnati and Atlanta are marred by suspicious penalty calls (or in the Falcons’ case, non-calls) late in the fourth quarter.

One play doesn’t cost a team a win and there were plenty of opportunities for all three teams to avoid holding an L, but the loud minority that believes the skids are being greased by the league to aid the Chiefs continue to accrue more evidence. The only way Kansas City can beat the allegations would be with a decisive victory and facing a Chargers team with a hobbled Justin Herbert is a good place to start.

Pick: Chiefs

Browns at Raiders (+2.5)

At the beginning of the season, I predicted the Raiders would inevitably trade Davante Adams to the Jets. With Antonio Pierce already having to shut down rumors after a slow start, it seems like only a matter of time before that prediction comes to fruition.

If only this game was that easy to project. The 1-2 Raiders are already dealing with concerns that some players are mailing it in while the 1-2 Browns were blown out by the lowly Cowboys and Giants while barely skating by the equally awful Jaguars. With no Adams or Maxx Crosby and QB Gardner Minshew already looking over his shoulder, the Raiders are too disadvantaged to take over even the most miserable of opponents.

Pick: Browns

Bills at Ravens (-2.5)

With their season potentially on the line, the Ravens came out strong against the Cowboys…and still nearly let Dallas come back. It’s hard to put a finger on why Baltimore isn’t playing up to its talent level but something is amiss. The same can’t be said for Buffalo, who look like the closest thing resembling the best team in football. The Bills have benefitted from a relatively easy schedule but it’s hard to say whether this game is a step up in difficultly given the Ravens’ recent play.

Pick: Bills

Titans at Dolphins (-2.5)

Will Levis vs Tyler Huntley. This is why you should be thankful there’s two Monday night games. On paper, the Titans should steamroll a Dolphins team already on their third QB but Levis is begging to be benched and Huntley is better than people think. It doesn’t matter who wins. We all lose.

Pick: Dolphins

Seahawks at Lions (-3.5)

If you can make it through 45 minutes of Dolphins-Titans, a clash between the surprisingly undefeated Seahawks and the ain’t-dead-yet Lions will be your reward. Both teams have their share of crucial injuries. The Lions won’t have All-Pro center Frank Ragnow anchoring the middle of the offensive line while the Seahawks’ entire defensive line is banged up. Seattle will have RB Kenneth Walker, who looked like a force before going down with an oblique injury, back after missing the last two game. I think both teams trade blows and it comes down to a late field goal. So, give me Seattle and the points.

Pick: Seahawks