If you're a nerd like me,(and chances are, you aren't), then this weekend's NFL Draft is the closest thing to a spring Christmas. No event is more responsible for more false hope than the NFL Draft. One by one, fans get bent out of shape over the acquisition of popular college enigmas in the hopes that these newcomers will lead them to the Promised Land. Another part of the great fun of Draft weekend is the slew of mock drafts that surface from every writer, fan, blogger, "expert" with a pulse. Mock drafts are thrilling because they are completely baseless educated guesses that turn out to be completely meaningless due to its inaccuracies by the end of the 1st round. So, despite the impossibility of a high success rate, I took it upon myself to write one anyway....because what's more fun than having a written excuse to put your foot in your mouth?
1.
Detroit Lions: Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia. ESPN is already reporting that Stafford has agreed to a 6 year deal with nearly $42 million guarenteed, so any chance of a curveball at the top is now gone. With the suspense out of the way, Stafford now has all the time in the world to focus on turning around the worst sports franchise in the country and bringing hope to the most dilapidated city in America. No pressure, Matt.
2.
St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor: (Draft Preface #1: Here is where everything is going to get interesting. After wowing scouts at his Pro Day, USC QB Mark Sanchez has a bunch of teams picking in the middle of the draft all googly-eyed over the idea of bringing him in as their QB of the future. The result has been weeks of smokescreens and trade rumors with contenders piling their chips in order to move up, while pretenders look to save money and fill more holes by moving down. So, really, the top 10 could be littered by some unexpected guests that will inevitably make everything I'm about to write moot. So while this mock has a no-trade policy, keep in mind that there could be, and more than likely will be, some shake-up at the top depending on how far Sanchez falls)-Reports have circulated recently that the Rams offered USC QB Mark Sanchez a plane ticket to St. Louis, which is either a harbinger that Sanchez will be the next Rams QB or a last ditch attempt at garnering interest in a deal. Assuming its the latter, I have the Rams addressing their biggest need, which is left tackle. The Rams pass protection has been abysmal over the last couple years, which has lead to the decline of stars like QB Marc Bulger, RB Stephen Jackson and ex-WR Torry Holt. Having honed his pass-blocking skills at pass happy Baylor, Smith would be an instant upgrade over current incumbant, Alex Barron.
3.
Kansas City Chiefs: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU-As of a couple weeks ago, I was 99% sure this was going to be Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry. However, two things to consider. One, dating back to 2000 when he was with New England, current Chiefs GM Scott Pioli has used a first round pick on a LB once(last year's ROTY Jerod Mayo, whom the Pats traded down to take) so needless to say, Pioli doesn't covet linebackers, especially those who don't rush the passer, this high in the draft. Second, 3-4 ends like Jackson are rare breeds and there are some scouts who compare Jackson to a man Pioli was very familiar with in New England: Pro Bowl DE Richard Seymour. Is #3 a bit high for Jackson? Sure, but so is Curry, and if you're going to reach, you might as well take someone who fits. The perfect scenario for Kansas City would be to call up Redskins owner Dan Snyder and, assuming Mark Sanchez is still available, hope to work out a deal to move into the middle of the draft where they could still select Jackson and pay him less money. Either way, I would bet on Jackson over Curry.
4.
Seattle Seahawks: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech-This pick is where I had the toughest time figuring things out. With possibilities like Curry, Sanchez, Crabtree and UVA OT Eugune Monroe all available, it's hard to make a solid case for one over the others. However, while QB Matt Hassellback is getting old and frail, he still has some game left in him and could be effective if they put a team around him. Could they use a replacement for Walter Jones at left tackle? Sure. Would it be nice to grab Sanchez here? Absolutely. Does Aaron Curry seem like a steal here after being projected to KC for so long? Definitely. However, we seem to forget that Crabtree is viewed by some to be the best player in this draft and, given the Seahawks' recieving woes last season, would be too good of a fit to pass up as an option opposite recent free-agent signing T.J. Houshmanzadeh.
5.
Cleveland Browns: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest-With all the hoopla over trades for Braylon Edwards and Brady Quinn, the Browns can quell both fires considerably by selecting the best defensive player in the draft in Curry. While not used as a pass-rusher much at Wake Forest, Curry has the speed and athleticism to be a force in Eric Mangini's 3-4 scheme. While the Browns are hoping for Crabtree to fall to 5 and become Edwards' replacement, I'm sure they'll "settle" for Curry.
6.
Cincinatti Bengals: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama-Lost in the running punchline that was the 2008 Bengals was the fact that their defense, which is traditionally horrible, wasn't too shabby last season. Now that they filled a hole in the middle with defensive tackle/Lord of War Tank Johnson, they can focus on their other big issue: offensive line. Much was made about Smith's not-so-flattering Combine, in which he showed up heavy and then left early, but there's no denying the kid can flat-out maul if you light a fire under his ass. With coach Marvin Lewis on the hot seat, I don't think he can pass up the most NFL-ready tackle in the draft if he falls to them.
7.
Oakland Raiders: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri-With a reputation for more curveballs than Barry Zito, Raiders GM/owner Al Davis is always a tough nut to crack in terms of predicting just what he'll do on Draft Day. One thing's for sure, nobody is more obsessed with fast 40 times than Old Al. With 4.3 speed, decent size and a surplus of explosiveness, Maclin is the kind of talent that gets Davis all hot and bothered under his track suit....Of course, the same can be said about the slightly faster Darrius Heyward-Bey, whom Davis is supposedly infatuated with, so we'll see how this wild card plays out.
8.
Jacksonville Jaguars: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College(Draft Preface # 2: If Sanchez is still available when the Jags go on the clock, I give Jacksonville a 5% chance of staying at 8, given the desperation of teams like the Broncos at 12, the Redskins at 13 and the Jets at 17. If Sanchez is not available, watch out for the Patriots, who are reportedly interested in jumping into the top 10 and have the cavalcade of Day 1 picks to do it. Either way, don't be suprised if the Jags trade down.) With that being said, if the Jags stick at 8, it would be hard for them to pass up on the disruptive Raji. Having noticed the glaring hole inside after trading away DT Marcus Stroud last year, the Jags can pair Raji with the enormous John Henderson alongside last year's rookie DEs Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves. If Crabtree or Maclin slide, it will be interesting to see if the Jags go that route after being so unsuccessful taking WRs in the first round in years past.
9.
Green Bay Packers: Brian Orakpo, DE/LB, Texas-After losing nearly half their games by a touchdown or less, the Packers come into this offseason with a new defensive philosophy(courtesy of Dom Capers and his 3-4 defense) and a new need: outside linebacker/pass rusher. Luckily for the Packers, The Orak Attack seems to be sliding a little, thanks to the emergence of Mark Sanchez. Word on the street is that Packers GM Ted Thompson has a huge man-crush for Orakpo following his workout last month and would be absolutely ecstatic to land him here. However, given the age of LT Chad Clifton and the possible non-return on Mark Tauscher on the right side, do not be suprised if the Packers go offensive line here.
10.
San Francisco 49ers: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia-Head coach Mike Singletary is telling anyone that will listen he's fine with the two-headed monster of Alex Smith and Shaun Hill at QB and they have no interest in using this pick on Mark Sanchez or anyone other rookie signal caller(It should be noted that, while Sanchez is available here, the chances of him actually being available when the Niners go on the clock are slim-to-none). Monroe was once considered the top tackle in the draft before the emergence of Jason Smith and the unveiling of Monroe's creaky knees. While the Niners did sign Marvel Smith in the offseason, he's coming off back surgury and, thus, is a bit shaky to last the full season.
11.
Buffalo Bills: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss-Having hit the jackpot by moving underpaid-yet-overrated LT Jason Peters to Philadelphia, the Bills were able to score a king's ransom, yet also open up a hole. While Oher's poor Combine and Pro Day has his stock falling from once a potential # 1 pick to the 10-20 range, the Bills can ill-afford that Oher or another OT of his caliber will be available when they go up again at 28. If a DE like Brian Orakpo were to fall to 11 though, that could change their mind. Another possibility is Oklahoma St. TE Brandon Pettigrew, whom the Bills are targeting with their 2nd pick.
12.
Denver Broncos: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC-While I mentioned in blogs past that it would be foolish for Denver to tab Sanchez as their guy after acquring Kyle Orton in the Jay Cutler trade, the fact of the matter is, coach Josh McDaniels seems to have taken a liking to Sanchez. While I strongly doubt Sanchez falls to 12, the chances of him being a Bronco aren't too bad given the fact that the Broncos main competitors for Sanchez(Washington and the Jets) are less equipped to move up than Denver is. If Denver changes its mind or Sanchez is unavailable, expect them to go defense with both this and their pick from Chicago at 18.
13.
Washington Redskins: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn St.-I have a hard time believing that Dan Snyder won't offer the house to get Mark Sanchez. I'm not saying we could see a Ditka-Ricky Williams kind of deal occur, but it wouldn't suprise me given the fact that they all but torched the bridge with current QB Jason Campbell. However, hypotheticals aside, the Redskins need a pass rusher and Maybin has the most raw potential of any pass rusher in the draft. Only 21, Maybin bulked up prior to Pro Day and still exhibited the speed and athleticism that has him projected all over this draft. If the price to move up for Sanchez is too expensive(which, in Snyder Land, is unlikely), they could stay at home and tab Maybin or another DE here.
14.
New Orleans Saints: Brian Cushing, LB, USC-The word out of N.O. is that this is a toss-up between Cushing and Ohio St. RB Chris "Beenie" Wells. While Wells would be the perfect power complement to the speedy Reggie Bush, the Saints might be reluctant to take another RB(an oft-injured one at that) with so many needs on defense and so little picks. If the team is sold on Beenie, there could be the possibility of moving down in the hopes of gaining another pick. As for Cushing, he's the rare type of 4-3 outside linebacker who can wreak havoc rushing the passer, something the Saints could use given its weakness in the secondary.
15.
Houston Texans: Malcom Jenkins, CB/FS, Ohio St.-Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Had Jenkins came out last season, he was a sure-fire top 10 pick. Instead, he chased a title at Ohio St. and, like his Buckeye buddies, sees his draft stock plummet thanks to an underwhelming season and an even more disappointing workout at the Combine and Pro Day. However, Jenkins has to be considered a steal at 15 and would make a nice combo when paired with franchised CB Dunta Robinson and free-agent signing Eugene Wilson. While lacking in speed, Jenkins has great size(6'1, 210 lbs) and good instincts, which is a neccesity to a team playing Peyton Manning twice a year.
16.
San Diego Chargers: Rey Maualuaga, ILB, USC-With the top OTs off the board, as well as the best 3-4 end in Tyson Jackson, this pick comes down to Maualuga and the Bolts' choice of the top RBs(Wells, Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown). Having signed LT for another 3 years(though my heart says he plays only 1 more in San Diego) and with Darren Sproles franchised, the Chargers could wait on a young back as opposed to taking an impact linebacker like Maualuga. With his freakish size and speed and his bone-jarring hits, Maualuga seems like the perfect fit on a team that already has the steroid-addled intensity of Shawne "Lights Out" Merriman. With no 2nd rounder, the Chargers could still opt to tab Wells or Moreno here, or more likely, trade down in hopes of picking up and an extra pick.
17.
New York Jets: Chris "Beenie" Wells, RB, Ohio St.-While I generally have no clue what ANY of these teams are doing on Draft Day, the Jets in particular has me especially perplexed. With no real needs outside of QB, the Jets could choose to either go all-in and move up for USC's Mark Sanchez, strike a deal for veterans like Jason Campbell or Brady Quinn or stay put and take the best player available. The big wild card at this spot is Kansas St. QB Josh Freeman, who has the most upside but is still very raw and needs time to develop(something that's hard to do in the Metropolitan Area). With RB Thomas Jones turning 31 and heading for decline and backup Leon Washington better suited for 3rd down duty, the team could use a big bruiser like Wells to eventually supplant Jones and work as the Thunder to Washington's Lightning(ala Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne with the Giants nearly a decade ago...which still gives Gabe nightmares). Other options include Maryland WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, UNC's Hakeem Nicks and Georgia's Knowshon Moreno.
18.
Denver Broncos(from Chicago): Everette Brown, DE/LB, Florida St.-Having tabbed its QB of the future with Mark Sanchez, the Broncos can now focus on an actual need: defense. While Everette Brown performed well at the Combine and his Pro Day, he's hurt by both his lack of height(6'1) and the stigma of Florida St. defensive ends' lack of success in the NFL(Kamerion Wimbley, Jamal Reynolds, Andre Wadsworth). With most of the top pass rushers gone, Brown still represents value here, as he is still considered a possible top 10 pick by some. Other possibilities are Ole Miss DT Peria Jerry, USC LB Clay Matthews, and Tennesee DE Robert Ayers.
19.
Tampa Bay Bucs: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss-Maybe it's just me, but I find the idea of the Bucs still possibly taking Kansas St. QB Josh Freeman after just signing Byron Leftwich a couple weeks ago just a wee bit confusing. Sure, Leftwich is not exactly a franchise QB at 28(and on his 4th team, no less) and certianly Freeman could sit out Leftwich 2-year deal and then take over when Leftwich is a free agent, but what happens if Leftwich succeeds? And why have Josh Johnson and Luke McCown on the roster if you're taking another QB? All these legit questions aside, I went with Jerry here because he fills a more immediate need. With the team lacking an inside presence since Warren Sapp left and having released most, if not all, of its stars on defense, the team can afford to bring in some new help.....that is, of course, if they don't squander this pick on Freeman.
20.
Detroit Lions(from Dallas): Robert Ayers, DE, Tennesee-With Stafford signed, sealed and delivered, the Lions can now focus their attention on making that silly Roy Williams trade look even more lop-sided in their favor. While the Lions would love one of the top OT to fall here, they might have to settle for Ayers, whose stock is on the rise after a solid Pro Day and would fit in nicely in new coach Jim Schwartz's scheme.
21.
Philadelphia Eagles: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma St. (Draft Preface # 3: Two things to look out for at this point of the draft. First, if Kansas St. QB Josh Freeman is still available here, these next 6-7 picks could be trade bait for teams at the top of the 2nd looking to move back in to grab the last potential franchise QB. Secondly, the Cardinals are still actively shopping WR Anquan Boldin, and while its believed the price has dropped to a 2nd rounder and other late round considerations, it's not unlikely for a team to offer a 1st in an attempt to trump other offers)-With only two of the top WRs gone and only one top RB taken, you would think Andy Reid would use this pick to take a WR or RB.....and you would be wrong. Here are the facts. Reid's never taken a RB higher than the 3rd(and that includes current franchise back Brian Westbrook) and has taken a WR in the 1st once(the laughably horrible Freddie "FredEx" Mitchell). In fact, assuming that the Eagles would take Pettigrew is a stretch given the history of the team's unwillingness to use high picks to help out QB Donovan McNabb. The more likely scenario would be swapping with Buffalo or a team at the top of the 2nd round and taking Cal center Alex Mack. If, for some chance, the pick is Pettigrew, he has the type of size to be a factor over the middle for McNabb. Also, unlike predecessor L.J. Smith, Pettigrew has reliable hands and is a solid blocker.
22.
Minnesota Vikings: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas St.-While I'd find it more likely for the Vikes to take Huey Freeman than Josh Freeman, the fact remains that a. Freeman's the best player available and b. the Vikings need a QB(For further info into this topic, see Gabe's blog about Brad Childress from earlier this month). With Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels(whom the Vikes traded for and signed to a decent sized contract) on the roster, Freeman would be a longshot here, but he would be an upgrade. Like the proposed scenario in Tampa Bay, Freeman could stand to learn a thing or two by waiting out the incumbent's contract and then inevitably taking over when he's ready. While it's more likely Minnesota will go OT or maybe even WR, they could be a prime candidate in Draft Preface # 3. Another situation to watch will be the QBs that come available after the Mark Sanchez Sweepstakes is over.
23.
New England Patriots: Larry English, DE/LB, Northern Illinois-Armed with 4 picks inside the first 60 selections, the Pats have made it known they're looking to move up to land a premier talent as opposed to a group of lesser worker bees. Could this mean a deal for disgruntled Panthers DE Julius Peppers? Doubtful, but it's something worth looking into. With nothing behind QB and playoff rally killer Jake Delhomme, the team could dangle Peppers with the hope of getting back into the first round to nab a guy like Josh Freeman if he's there. While Peppers would command the kind of big contract the Pats generally avoid, you'd have to believe Peppers' contract demands won't be much different than those of a top 10 pick. As for English, he would bring back the pass rush vacated by the departure of Mike Vrabel and is the type of raw talent that the Pats have molded into gold over the years.
24.
Atlanta Falcons: Evander "Ziggy" Hood, DT, Missouri-Having addressed its need for a TE by stealing Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez from the Chiefs, the Falcons can focus on addressing their needs on defense, most importantly, on the defensive line. Having wisely passed up Glenn Dorsey for Matt Ryan last year, the Dirty Birds still have a gaping hole inside and Hood, whose stock is moving up, is the type of big body to fill it. Another option here could be UConn's Darius Butler and Illinois' Vontae Davis, both cornerbacks, who could fill the spot left by DeAngelo Hall and most recently, Dominique Foxworth.
25.
Miami Dolphins: Clay Matthews, LB, USC-While this would be a prime spot for the Phins to snag a reciever to pair with Ted Ginn Jr, the more likely scenario would be targeting two of Parcells' most coveted positions: linebacker and cornerback. Like his USC linebacker mates, Matthews is extremely athletic and would make a nice pair with aging Joey Porter. While it's possible a curveball like Hakeem Nicks or Kenny Britt could be the pick, the only other realistic option would a cornerback like Darius Butler or Alphonso Smith.
26.
Baltimore Ravens: Hakeem Nicks, WR, UNC-With the price tag on Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin decreased, it's possible the Ravens swing a deal for Boldin and use this pick to get younger on defense. However, with no deal on the table as of yet, the Ravens get their choice of Nicks, Rutgers' Kenny Britt and local boy Darrius Heyward Bey. With Derrick Mason aging and not much behind him and Mark Clayton, the need for a pass catcher has become a top priority. On a side note, my sole purpose for opting for Nicks over Britt is because the idea of my friend Carlos' Ravens acquring ANOTHER one of my beloved Scarlet Knights would sicken me to the point where I might not leave the bed til Christmas.
27.
Indianapolis Colts: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland-The Colts can go a number of ways here. They could address the offensive line with guys like Arizona's Eban Britton, Oklahoma's Phil Loadholt and Duke Robinson or Cal's Alex Mack. I went with DHB here because the Colts favor the 3 WR set and, without Marvin Harrison, they could use another speedy threat to add to Peyton Manning's arsenal. Also, in continuing to beat this scenario into the ground, keep an eye out for Josh Freeman, not just as trade bait, but as the possible heir apparent to Mr. Laser Rocket Arm.
28.
Buffalo Bills(from Philadelphia): Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech-Best case scenario for the Bills is TE Brandon Pettigrew, whom they are considering at # 11, falling here. However, the team has needs on the defensive line. Unable to muster a pass rush outside of DE Aaron Schobel, the team needs an influx of quality lineman. While Johnson's rep for being somewhat lazy could drop him down to the late 2nd-early 3rd area, the Bills could use the extra pick here to snag a project with incredible upside. Johnson is 6'7, with a 4.4 40, and with the right push, could be the next Julius Peppers. This late in the round, he could be worth the gamble.
29.
New York Giants: James Laurinitis, LB, Ohio St.-With Plaxico Burress gone, the team is searching a true # 1 WR to be a shot in the arm(or leg) for this team. However, the draft only has one true # 1 and that's Michael Crabtree, who needless to say will not be available at 29. It also should be mentioned that the Giants have stocked up on young WRs the last few drafts and while Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Sinorice Moss and Dominik Hixon don't have the big play ability of Plax, they might be enough to usher Big Blue from taking a WR(at least, until they acquire Braylon Edwards from Cleveland). Laurinitis, like his teammate Malcom Jenkins, could have made himself some serious coin had he came out last year, but inevitiably stayed and killed his draft stock. With his athleticism and instinct, he could be a nice fit on the inside or outside for a Giants team still searching for another Jessie Armstead.
30.
Tennesee Titans: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers- Every year, mock drafters like myself sucker ourselves into thinking the Titans will finally address their need at reciever by taking a wideout in the first frame. Every year, they make us into liars. While Britt would represent excellent value at this pick and has the best potential to be a # 1 WR of the group of guys not named Mike Crabtree, the fact is, this pick will probably not be Kenny Britt. The more likely scenario is the Titans taking an interior lineman like Alex Mack or Oregon St.'s Max Unger or continuing to irritate former ROTY Vince Young by taking another QB like, yup, you guessed it, Josh Freeman.
31.
Arizona Cardinals: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia-Outside of Crabtree and my boy Kenny Britt, I think Knowshon Moreno might be among the best players in this draft. However, given last year's huge class of running backs and the lack of need this year, Moreno is somewhat of a draft enigma. On the one hand, he makes great sense for a team like Denver at 12, or San Diego at 16 or the Jets at 17, but the Mark Sanchez circus makes it hard for anyone to envision Moreno going to any of those places. With Edge James on the way out and Tim Hightower better suited for part-time duty, the Cards could use another weapon in their high octane offense. While Moreno doesn't possess outer-worldly speed, he has great vision and is dangerous in the open field. He's also a solid reciever out of the backfield, something QB Kurt Warner will need after Anquan Boldin is traded.
32.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Eben Britton, OT, Arizona-When you're the champs, you can pretty much go for the best player available. Lucky for the Steelers, Eban Britton represents both value and need. With their bookend tackles unsigned, the team could take advantage of a deep OT class to help keep Big Ben upright and avoid last year's turnstile O-Line. Another option is 6'3 Utah CB/S Sean Smith, who could replace departed CB Bryant McFadden opposite Ike Taylor or fill in for Troy Polamalu when he inevitably succumbs to The Madden Curse(Sorry, Sean).
---Dave
