Divisional Round Picks

Dave's cold streak continues(but did warn you guys in the Playoff Preview of a Broncos win over the Steelers) as Gabe added a two-game lead in the playoffs to go with his regular season crown.

On to Round 2.....

LAST WEEK:

Gabe: 3-1

Dave: 1-3

PLAYOFFS

Gabe: 3-1

Dave: 1-3

Saints (-3.5) at Niners

Dave: Niners - A couple of things you should know here before you kill me for this pick. First, the Saints have never won on the road in the playoffs under Drew Brees. The weather in San Fran isn't expected to be a factor but it goes without saying that things won't be as comfy for the Saints at The Stick as it would be in the friendly confines of the Superdome. Second, if you take away the shootout New Orleans won over Houston in the season's opening month, the Saints haven't faced a good defense all season. The closest thing to Houston that New Orleans faced was St. Louis(who finished 7th against the pass) and the Rams won that game. The Niners possess the best defense in the NFL and while defending the pass is their one weak link(16th against air attacks), they are pretty stout everywhere else. Pierre Thomas isn't going to be able to pound away at SF like he did Detroit and the Niners will be looking for those quick screens to Darren Sproles. A good defense has almost ALWAYS beat a good offense and I think San Fran pulls the upset here at home.

Gabe: San Fran - Historically great defense beats great offense. I'm taking the defense. Niners.

Broncos (+13.5) at Patriots

Dave: Broncos - Some more fun with numbers. The Patriots don't have a single victory over a team with a winning record all season. Sure, they beat the Broncos a couple months ago but it's safe to say that Denver has a bit more momentum in the rematch than they did the first go-round. The Broncos gashed the Patriots' porous defense with the run attack in the first game and I expect that to be true again in the second match. This time around though, Tim Tebow has a bit more comfort in the offense, a lot more comfort with WR Demaryius Thomas, and a Patriots' offensive line that might be too battered to keep Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil off of Tom Brady all game. Tebow and, especially, John Fox knows turnovers killed them the last time against New England and the age-old blueprint to beat New England has been keep Brady off the field and then smack him in the mouth when he's out there. I think another dose of Tebow magic is farfetched, but Denver keeping it under double digits? I'll take that.

Gabe: Broncos - Quite simply, no way the Pats win by two touchdowns.

Texans (+7.5) at Ravens

Dave: Ravens - This isn't as much of a lay-up as it seems. Sure, the Texans are beat up and they are trotting out T.J. Yates as their starting QB and Houston lost to Baltimore already this season but this still isn't a lock for the Ravens. The Texans play outstanding defense, which was something the Bengals found out the hard way last week. Second, you can never fully trust Joe Flacco if you're a Ravens fan. The Ravens' losses this season have come when both the team underestimated it's seemingly inferior opponent and Flacco looked more like Drew Bledsoe than Drew Brees. All that being said, I think this is Baltimore's year. With Pittsburgh out of the way, the only thing standing between them and a trip to Indy is themselves. The Ravens know the window is closing for Ray Lewis and Ed Reed and Ray Rice is too dangerous on the ground and in the passing game to be completely held in check. The Ravens are going to bog down on Arian Foster, force Yates to make throws/mistakes and keep Flacco from blowing this one. Ravens by 13.

Gabe: Ravens - Terrell Suggs makes sure he and rest of the Ravens ball so hard.

Giants (+7.5) at Packers

Dave: Giants - I haven't spoke to Gabe about this game all week. Not one snarky post on Facebook about our teams facing each other in the playoffs. No angry texts over Jason Pierre-Paul's "guarentee". No mentions of Green Bay's win over New York early in the year. Why? Because I remember 2007, when an underdog Giants team went into Lambeau and ruined Brett Favre's last chance at a Super Bowl as a Packer. However, while much is made over that upset, it's important to make distinctions. One, the QB for this week's game is Aaron Rodgers, not Brett Favre. Two, most of the stars on Green Bay's team weren't around for that '07 L. Three, the Packers weren't the defending Super Bowl champions playing at an absolute high back then like they are now. Four, while the Giants pass rush is improved, the secondary is much worse and you can make the case that the run game is as well(even if it's the same guys in the backfield as five years ago). So, why do I like New York? Because I know this game will be just as close as the last one was and I have very little faith in both the Packers O-Line as well as their defense. I still like Green Bay to win though. Aaron Rodgers has spent the last two weeks listening to how Matt Flynn killed his MVP campaign and how great Drew Brees is and how the Giants are going to pull off the upset again and, knowing A-Rod, I expect him to come out in full "Fuck you" mode. This game is going to come down to making costly mistakes and, unlike in '07, the Packers don't have a turnover machine at QB like they did then. So I'll take my boys, but I think they win it by 6 after Eli gets picked off on the final drive by Tramon Williams.

Gabe: Giants - Aaron Rodgers has had three weeks off and could be rusty. The Giants have tons of momentum. The thing the Giants do best of defense is harass and disrupt the opposition's passing game. In addition, the Packers are going through some turmoil because the death of their offensive coordinator's son. I think the Giants have a shot to win. They might not win, but it will be close.

Conference Championship Picks

Eventhough I was way off on my Divisional picks, the outcomes of last week's games offered more "hmm..." than surprises. For one, no reason Baltimore should have lost to Pittsburgh after being two scores at halftime. You can point to some suspect calls(most notably, the "hold" on what would have been the go-ahead punt return TD) but that argument is moot if Flacco plays like a legit QB in the 2nd half and Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmanzadeh don't get the Roberto Duran hands at the worst possible moments.

I thought Atlanta and New England would put up more of a fight. The Pats looked like they were simply outcoached and outhustled by a Jets team that absolutely needed that win to back up a season's worth of talking coming out of the Meadowlands. The Falcons, meanwhile, never got off the team bus, and you can feel the air come out of the tires right after Tramon Williams picked off Matt Ryan and ran it back 70 yards for a touchdown to close the first half.

As for Seattle, I picked them more because I had very little faith in Chicago than it was belief that the Seahawks were the better team. Now, we sit a home win at Soldier Field from two weeks of talking ourselves into the Bears being the best team in the NFC. It's been a weird year. Here's my picks for who is going to Dallas:

Packers (-3.5) at Bears

Pick: Bears - Obviously, there's the reverse jinx in play, but also, given how hard Green Bay has had to play just to get here, isn't it possible they don't come out firing like they did in Atlanta and we're looking at something closer to the Week 17 7-3 barnburner? My mind can't comprehend a scenario where the Bears represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but that doesn't mean Chicago is terrible. Still, if you're a Bears fan, you're relying on QB with a knack for throwing picks, playing behind a offensive line that's gotten him sacked 52 times, facing a defense that finished in the Top 2 in sacks and interceptions.....Yikes. So why do I have Chicago here? Because current weather reports have this game being played in the low 20s with snow being a possibility. Do I think that will shut down Green Bay's passing attack completely? Of course not....they play in GREEN BAY, for shit's sake! But I can see both teams feeling each other out, playing conservative for the first half, and the game becomes more a defensive struggle than a shootout. I think Green Bay still pulls this one out because all the momentum is on their side and, in a quarterback's league, you have to take Rodgers over Cutler here, but I think Chicago's D keeps them in it before a Cutler pick down the stretch seals a 3-point Packers win.

Jets (+3.5) at Steelers

Pick: Jets - Of the possible AFC Championship scenarios we were faced with last week, I knew this was going to be the hardest one to pick. I wasn't impressed with Pittsburgh last week. I thought some iffy officiating and some really costly turnovers by Baltimore put them back into a game they should have lost. The Steeler D is also a different animal with DE Aaron Smith out. The Jets, meanwhile, have shut down the two best QBs in the league, on the road, and now get Big Ben, who is a home win away from his third Super Bowl appearance in 7 years. The presence of Darrelle Revis means Roethlisberger isn't going to be connecting on bombs downfield with the same ease he had against Baltimore. For the Steelers to win, they need a big game out of Rashard Mendenhall to keep this aggressive Jets D honest. I'm going with Gang Green here because I think they'll run the ball better than Pittsburgh and the revenge factor for Santonio Holmes gives them a slight edge. So, for those scoring at home, we may be looking at the first Super Bowl ever featuring two 6 seeds. Like I said in the opening paragraphs, this has been a weird season. Tonight, it will only get weirder. Jets by 6.

Wild Card Picks

The NFL regular season is over with and Gabe took home the Picks title for the second year in a row(pretty much by default, since I voided out by two best weeks). That means we get to move on to the meat of the season: The NFL Playoffs.



Here's our takes on this weekend's Wild Card games.(Editor's Note: Gabe's once again M.I.A., so I guess I'm riding solo on this one.)



Jets (+3) at Colts



Dave: Jets - Do you think fate looked down at that Titans-Colts game as Indy was setting up for winning field goal and thought "Oh shit, we're a Titans win away from seeing Jacksonville host a playoff game! Let's go Colts!"? I haven't been sold on Peyton Manning's boys all season. Manning's played like a one-man army from jump street and now they host the worst possible matchup for them. The Colts can't stop the run. The Jets are one of the best rushing teams in football. The Colts are thin at receiver. The Jets have All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis. I can't remember the last time Manning made a first round exit, but my money is on it happening this year. Jets pull off the mild upset and win 20-13.





Saints (-10) at Seahawks



Dave: Saints - A small part of me wanted to believe that Qwest Field will be loud and rowdy enough to at least mildly deter the Saints from coming into town and blowing the doors off.....but, even if Drew Brees and company start off slow, the Seahawks don't have enough offense to fend off the Saints for long. I think we are underestimating Seattle here a little, but not to the point where losing by two touchdowns at home is impossible. Saints by 17.





Packers (+2.5) at Eagles



Dave: Eagles - A matchup between two biggest brain fart specialists in the league? I can't wait! Green Bay beat Philly in Philly already this season but that was so long ago, it might as well be biblical. The key for the Packers to beat Philly will be finding a way to shut down or knock out Mike Vick by either putting his lights out or chewing up clock with the running game and keeping Vick and his fast paced offense off the field. I believe in the Packers' chances of doing the former but not the latter. The Eagles have given up the 2nd most passing touchdowns of any defense in the NFC, so this is going to be a shootout. Still, the Eagles can run the ball with Vick or "Shady" McCoy when it matters and the Packers are terrible on the ground. For reverse jinx purposes and my own profound pessimism, I'll take Philly here by 3.





Ravens (-3) at Chiefs



Dave: Ravens - Terrible matchup for Kansas City here. The Chiefs' offensive line struggled protecting Matt Cassell from getting beat up by Oakland last week and Baltimore's defense is much more physical. The only shot Kansas City has is if they get some dumb penalities from the Ravens and their playmakers in the secondary get a few big mistakes from Joe Flacco. Other than that, KC's Cinderella story ends here. Ravens by 13.

Week 12 Picks

The NFL has turned the annual Thanksgiving Dallas/Detroit two-step into three-step and gives us three holiday games. As usual we will save the look back at last week for Sunday and pick the early games first.


So marinate on these picks while you enjoy your turkey, unless you're a level-5 vegan, like Dave, and don't eat anything that casts a shadow. (How's that for a deeeeeeep Simpsons reference?)
As always, we got these lines from Danny Sheridan of the USA Today.


New England (-6.5) at Detroit


Gabe: Detroit - My theme for these games could be "I can see the underdogs winning," because, well, I can see all of the underdogs winning. I'm not saying that is actually going to happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. About this game specifically...New England has played two tough games in a row. They will be on short rest and could suffer a hangover. And, they have to travel. Yes, Detroit is on a short week too, but they are at home and are playing decently. If they can get anything out of Matthew Stafford and Jahvid Best, I think they can keep it close. I don't think New England is going to lose, but I think the Lions keep it within 6.


Dave: New England - It's simple math really. The Lions got pounced by a Cowboys team that, to me, is still lousy even if they are a little more motivated under Jason Garrett. The Patriots, as of right now, are the best team in football. They've beaten Indy. They've beaten Pitt. They've beaten Baltimore. They've beaten San Diego. That's four quality wins so far. Detroit, meanwhile, doesn't have four wins...period. Shaun Hill will make this game entertaining because the Patriots D gives up quite a bit of yards and points(especially through the air), but in the end, Pats by a touchdown seems like a gimme.


New Orleans (-3.5) at Dallas


Gabe: New Orleans - New Orleans finally seems to have together. Dallas has won two games in a row under new coach Jason Garrett. Both teams are extremely talented, especially on offense. So what is going to give? I think the emotion that brought Dallas together in their last two games is going to wear off and they are actually going to have to play now. Jason Garrett still doesn't know how to manage his talent. I think this game is going to come down to a late decision, and I trust Sean Payton more than Garrett, Drew Brees more than Jon Kitna, and Marques Colston's hands more than Roy Williams'. Give me the champs by a touchdown.


Dave: Dallas - The Saints are actually surprisingly good against the pass(the one thing the Cowboys does well), so why do I like Dallas? Because the Saints, who started out as the NFL's most maddeningly inconsistent team, is due for a letdown and Dallas is riding high coming off two straight W's under Jason Garrett. Are the Cowboys good? Well, in my eyes, no, but I see DeMarcus Ware putting pressure on Drew Brees(like he did in their upset last year) and the 'Boys eking out a victory which will lead to weeks of "Are the Cowboys back in the playoff picture?" talk. Cowboys, in an upset, by 6.

Cincinnati (+8.5) at N.Y. Jets


Gabe: Cincinnati - Here's what's going to happen. The Jets are going to have a four touchdown lead at halftime. Revis Island will be thriving and he'll completely shut down one half of the T.O.cho show. That means in the second half, Carson Palmer and the unmarooned receiver will get their heads out of their asses and play some football. The 2010 Cincinnati Bengals might be the greatest garbage time team in the history of the NFL. They'll put up big numbers, score some TD's, get it to within a touchdown, and then go home. Jets win, but only by seven.



Dave: Jets - Of all the games on Turkey Day, I don't think I can like a team more than I like the Jets this week. The Bengals gave up a 40-burger and a three-touchdown lead to Buffalo last week. Their pass rush is non-existent. Carson Palmer is 8 weeks away from signing with the UFL. The Jets, meanwhile, have kept things close, but I see Palmer doing everything in his power to make sure this game is a blowout for Gang Green. Revis Island shuts down T.O., while Ochocinco pouts. L.T. goes off and we see another score from the vaunted Mark Sanchez-to-Santonio Holmes connection. If the Jets are for real(and I think they are), they win this one by 14.

Week 6 NFL Picks

Guess who's back??

The excitement of our trip to FedEx Field to see his boys must have fried Mr. Mario Brothers' brain. Dave mustered only four wins and picked a few monumental losses. (How's that Detroit 40-burger taste?) I, on the other hand, was sensible, thoughtful, and watched eight of my picks come through. I believe that gives this Puerto Rican the season series lead for the moment, although we are both still under .500 for the year.

Last Week:

Gabe: 8-4

Dave: 4-8

Season:

Gabe: 33-37-2

Dave: 31-39-2

On to week 6 and as always, these lines are courtesy of Danny Sheridan at the USA Today.

San Diego (-9) at St. Louis

Gabe: San Diego - Last week the Rams were housed by the Lions. San Diego lost to Oakland. The Chargers and Norv Turner are notoriously slow starters and this is the point in the season when they usually start turning things around. Is there a better opponent against which to right the ship than St. Louis? I don't think so. Chargers by double digits.

Dave: San Diego - Rams wideouts are dropping like flies. I think they are another season-ending injury from dialing up Az Hakim to make a come back. I still think San Diego sucks, especially after how violently they shit the bed last week against Oakland, but even an epic failure like the Chargers should be able to take care of business against a wounded Rams squad. Chargers by 10.

Kansas City (+4.5) at Houston

Gabe: Kansas City - The Chiefs finally came back to Earth last week. Houston looked terrible in losing to my Giants. The Texans have schizophrenic all year and I think both teams will have a hangover. This game appears to be a test of strengths, good offense versus good defense. Quick, which team in the NFL is giving up the fewest points per game? Trick question, it's the Atlanta Falcons. But a scant quarter point per game behind them is Kansas City. I don't know if KC will pull out the win, but I think they'll keep it close. Put me down for Houston by 3.

Dave: Kansas City - I really don't know what to make of the Texans. I mean, they should be at least above average by now given the talent they have, right? After getting smoked by The Big Adobo's Giants last week, I'm back into "Believe It When I See It" mode with Houston. The loss of Duane Brown has clearly muted this offense and the D can't be stout forever, even with Brian Cushing back. As for Kansas City, Dwayne Bowe's Roberto Duran hands against Indy kept them from possibly pulling an upset over the Colts or, at the very least, covering the spread and giving me my 5th win. Regardless, this is a good test for Kansas City and I think the Chiefs pass it with flying colors.

Baltimore (+2.5) at New England

Gabe: Baltimore - This pick has less to do with New England and more to do with how much I love the way the Ravens' defense is playing right now. Baltimore is also riding a three game winning streak. When this team is on a roll they are almost unstoppable, especially with Ray Lewis leading them. Fifteen years in the league and that guy is still an animal. Ravens win outright in a mild upset.

Dave: Baltimore - Lest we forget, the last time these two teams met, the Ravens steamrolled the Pats in the playoffs. Since then, the Pats D got older, Brady's hair got gayer and his #1 weapon is now catching balls from Brett Favre and his penis. I know ESPN would love for New England to pull it out here so they can spend another week slurping the Pats and running "Life Without Moss" specials and leading Sportscenter with Justin Bieber battle raps about Tom Terrific, but I see the Ravens D bringing the lumber here and shutting Brady's Bunch down. Ravens by 14.

New Orleans (-4) at Tampa Bay

Gabe: New Orleans - The Saints, to quote something Tony Kornheiser said this week, have to learn that they just can't roll the ball out there and win because they're the champs. They have to play, and play well, to win. They have a target on their back every week. Earlier I said the best team against which to right the ship is St. Louis. Well, it might also be Tampa Bay. The Saints need this game to get back on track and I think they coast and win by 10.

Dave: Tampa Bay - I have no faith in the defending champs. None. Gabe has a better chance of playing the lead role in the Jon Secada biopic than the Saints do of making the playoffs this year. Getting housed by the lowly Cards led by "Mad" Max Hall? Seriously? I can't help but think Drew Brees is feeling the effects of the "Madden Curse" and this offense is sputtering because of it(well, that, and their failure to get anyone resembling a running back in the offseason). Meanwhile, the Bucs may very well be not horrible. They're young. They have a terrible coach, but they have some potential. Enough potential to keep things close against the Saints? I say yes.

Atlanta (+1.5) at Philadelphia

Gabe: Atlanta - I have no idea who to pick in this game. I hate the Eagles, so go Falcons!

Dave: Atlanta - I'd like this matchup more if a. Mike Vick was starting and b. It was in Atlanta. Vick will probably get some work in here after Kevin Kolb checks down to LeSean McCoy for the 11th time(read: after the 4th drive), and it wouldn't surprise me if he busts up his ribs again trying to stick it to his old mates. Still, Atlanta may be the best team in the NFC and the Eagles have gotten very lucky all season with the way they've pulled some of these wins out(especially against SF last week). Falcons by 6.

Detroit (+10) at N.Y. Giants

Gabe: Detroit - Don't let either of last week's games fool you. Both teams will be flying high after their wins. C.C. Brown has been making comments about Eli and the New York media is blowing them out of proportion. The Giants defense is playing great right now, but this is exactly the kind of the game that causes the Giants to shit the bed. I think they'll win, but ten points is way too many. Giants by a touchdown.

Dave: New York - 10 points is a lot to hand Capt. Flan of San Juan's Giants, but look at the ass-whooping Big Blue has put on Chicago and Houston the last two weeks. The Lions may have looked good against St. Louis last week, but their O-Line is too porous to stop this New York pass rush. I think Shaun Hill gets knocked out, Matt Stafford gets rushed in, and the Giants have this thing won by halftime. Giants by 17.

Seattle (+6) at Chicago

Gabe: Chicago - Seattle sucks and the Bears are good enough to beat bad teams at home, I think. Jay Cutler will have a good game and the Bears win by double digits.

Dave: Chicago - In all honesty, I don't know if EITHER of these teams are any good. Bears had eek out a win against Carolina, granted without Jay Cutler, and before that, they got their shit rocked by the Giants. Seattle has pulled off a couple upsets, but they aren't much to sweat either. I think Cutler has a bad day at the office coming off that concussion but Matt Forte carries the Bears to a 7-point W.

Miami (+3) at Green Bay

Gabe: Miami - Last week Dave and I witnessed the Packers' collapse in Washington first hand. When Clay Matthews Jr. went down it was like the air was let out of the Packers' defense. They are also without Jermichael Finley and a bunch of other players. That's just too many injuries. I'm calling the Dolphins' straight up win in my....wait for it...sorry Dave...upset special!

Dave: Miami - I thought it would take at least until midseason before I started picking my Packers' opponents to win in an effort to jinx them. Nope. This Packers team is more beat up than Rihanna after the BET Awards. Finley's out. Grant's out. Barnett's out. A-Rod's woozy. Clay's hobbled. I think this one will be tighter than a R.Kelly playdate but I have no faith in my boys to pull one out after last week's debacle(although, the Redskins owe that W to some really shitty officiating).

Cleveland (+14) at Pittsburgh

Gabe: Pittsburgh - Cleveland might be starting Jake Delhomme at quarterback. Pittsburgh is at home, it's a division game, and the Browns suck out loud. Steelers by 20.

Dave: Pittsburgh - Whether it's Jake Delhomme starting, as Young Don Omar suggests, or Colt McCoy, as ESPN is reporting, the Browns stand as much of a chance of beating Pittsburgh as Mary Kate Olsen does of beating Kirstie Alley in a pie-eating contest. Big Ben is back, and even though he's going to be rusty, this Steelers team is too good not to drop Cleveland on their heads.

N.Y. Jets (-3.5) at Denver

Gabe: N.Y. Jets - I now believe in Kyle Orton. I also believe in the Jets' defense. I also believe that good defense beats good offense nine times out of ten. Give me the Jets, their D, and a seven point win.

Dave: Jets - Kyle Orton has made the Broncos look like geniuses for pulling off that Jay Cutler trade(even if they did botch the draft picks in said deal), but it's asking a lot to have him pick apart this Jets D with no running game. Speaking of running game, L.T. owns the Broncos and I expect that trend to continue. Jets by 14.

Oakland (+7) at San Francisco

Gabe: Oakland - Can San Francisco lose six in a row? To quote their head coach..."Can't do it. Won't do it." If they can't get riled up and pull out a win, to save their season, against their bay area rivals, then they should just pack it in. That said, seven points is too many. This is going to be a close game either way.

Dave: San Francisco - Screw it, I'm game. If Detroit taught us anything last week, it's that a desperate team with talent playing an inferior opponent is going to eventually put it all together and wreck shop. The Niners can't possibly be this bad. Is a touchdown a lot to give an 0-5 team? Sure, but the Raiders are due for a let down after last week's upset and nothing says disappointment better than the words "Starting QB Jason Campbell". Niners by 9.

Dallas (+1.5) at Minnesota

Gabe: Minnesota - Who needs this win more? I don't know. Both teams need this win to keep their seasons from unraveling. Dallas has no leadership and Minnesota has bad leadership. Both teams are among the most talented in the league, on both sides of the ball. I'll take Minnesota to win because they are at home and because they might have a nutty quarterback who makes bad decisions, but they don't have a coaching staff that doesn't understand how to use their talent. Jason Garrett and Wade Philips should both be prepping their resumes.

Dave: Dallas - I'm really going to regret this pick. Randy Moss has always owned the Cowboys after Jerry's boys passed on him in the draft. The problem is, Moss is now catching his passes from Brett Favre and his penis, and the Cowboys, well, they've ALWAYS owned Favre. I think Favre's ego forces him to go out there and play with that bum elbow and he ends up either getting knocked out by halftime or just completely throwing this game away. Cowboys need this one a little more, so I'll begrudgingly take the 'Boys here.

Indianapolis (-3) at Washington

Gabe: Indianapolis - Washington got lucky last weekend and Indy struggled when they shouldn't have. I think Indy flexes their muscle under the lights. Peyton Manning simply does not lose in prime time. Indy by a touchdown.

Dave: Indianapolis - Read this very carefully: YOU DO NOT GO AGAINST PEYTON MANNING AT NIGHT. You don't do it. Ever. Meanwhile, who is Dan Snyder blowing to get the Redskins on Sunday night this many times in the first 6 weeks of the season? Colts by 13.

Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville

Gabe: Tennessee - Both teams are totally one dimensional on offense. The Titans can at least play a little defense. They'll stop Mojo and in by 6.

Dave: Tennessee - Both of these teams were terrible last year. What made any of the schedule-makers think this game will be watchable in primetime? Because it's Chris Johnson vs. Maurice Jones-Drew? So what! I'll take the Titans here because they have the better back, the D is a bit more competent, and Kenny Britt is starting to come into his own. Titans by 7 in a game you couldn't pay me to watch.

Conference Championship Picks

Well, the perfect postseason came to an end as both myself(Dave, who came in 4-0) and Gabe went 2-2. With three games remaining, I have to go 2 for 3 to finish above .500. Anyway, you know the drill. Here's our conference championship picks.



Last Week: Dave 2-2, Gabe 2-2



Season: Gabe 140-117-5, Dave 128-129-5



Jets (+7.5) at Colts



Dave: Jets- This game gives me far too many flashbacks of the Packers-Giants NFC Championship in 2007. The Jets are the mighty underdog that got hot at the right time and keep pulling off upsets with the time-honored playoff tradition of running the ball down your throats and a steady defense(ala the '07 Giants) and the Colts are an offensive juggernaut with the battle-tested quarterback who look too good to slip up against an inferior opponent at home(just like the Packers were).



When the Colts decided to rest their starters midway into their Week 16 clash with these same Jets they did two things: 1. They pissed off the Jets and 2. By deliberately blowing a chance at 19-0, the Colts managed to overshadow the fact that, even with their first team in, the Jets were giving them fits. (They also helped get the Jets into the playoffs by laying down. So, I guess they accomplished three things). Every conventional school of thought would go against a team led by a rookie QB and a rookie head coach making the Super Bowl....but that's the beauty of the 2010 Jets: they go against the grain. In a league that has become pass-dominated, they win by running it. While teams like Indy fluster opposing QBs with bookend pass-rushers, the Jets don't have a single edge rusher you gameplan against. Sure, in theory, the Colts should have no problem with a Jets team whose blueprint is eerily similar to the Ravens team they just demolished last week(run-based offense, QB not a passing threat, hard-hitting blitzing 3-4 defense, playmaker in the secondary you always have to account for), but again, the Jets wipe their ass with logic. In a year where the Yankees are World Champs, "Jersey Shore" is a nationwide TV phenomenon and the Nets and Knicks look like big-time players in the LeBron Sweepstakes, why can't Gang Green continue the magic carpet ride and fly into Miami? Even if they don't pull off the upset, I like this one to be very close.

Gabe: Colts - The Jets are going to want to keep this game in the 17 to 20 point range. They are going to want to run the ball and play great defense, and keep the Colts offense off the field. That's a great plan, but here's the problem - the Colts don't need to be on the field that much to score. The Colts have a quick strike offense that can cover eighty yards in four plays if they have to. Plus, Peyton Manning is getting to see the Jets defense twice in one month. If they blitz, he'll throw quickly. If they play zone, he'll carve them up. I think at some point in the game, and it could happen anytime, the Colts are going to score quickly a couple of times and the Jets won't be able to recover. The Jets are not a play-from-behind team. Also, I think the Colts defense is going to be able to pressure Mark Sanchez. Last, the crowd noise is going to be a big factor. The Jets are going to have to rely on hand signals and looking into the ball on offense. I expect a few illegal procedures and false starts, especially from the offensive tackles. I'll take the Colts to win, 28-17.



Vikings (+3.5) at Saints



Dave: Saints - I make a lot of half-brain declarations that I end up paying for down the road but, even with that said, let me take the time out(since we only have two games to cover) to plead with Vikings fans for a minute.



Dear Vikings fans......be prepared. Be prepared for the inevitable Brett Favre Playoff Collapse. Remember how I referenced the '07 NFC Championship earlier? You know how that game ended? With Brett Favre tossing a pick in overtime right in Corey Webster's bread basket. Trust me on this one, as a longtime Packers fan, Brett Favre has tortured more Cheeseheads during the postseason than Dick Cheney tortured Arabs during the Bush Administration. Favre is as much a mortal lock to come undone in the postseason as Scarlett Johanson's top in a romantic comedy. He's better at delivering a stomach punch than Mickey Ward. Maybe it doesn't happen here in New Orleans(Side note: All the Favre-slurping media fools wouldn't stop harping about Favre going back to the Superdome, where he won his first Super Bowl, and the significance of it. Um, why don't you check Favre's career track record in domes before you go thinking "The Riverboat Gambler" is somehow untouchable in Louisiana), but it will happen. Favre will get caught up in the moment and he will do something extremely stupid...and you will see people from all walks of life jump off the Vikings bandwagon like Mark Wahlberg jumped off that cliff to dodge the falling car in The Big Hit. So, please, Vikings fans, as much as I will love watching Prince crumble into a ball of tears like the video for "When Doves Cry", I am giving you fair warning: When it comes to Brett Favre in January, temper your expectations. Remember, if you think the karma gods are out to fuck Indianapolis for warming the bus prematurely in Week 16, don't forget that karma is not too happy with Favre's retirement flip-flop either.



Also, how can anyone in their right mind root against a post-Katrina Saints team playing for a chance for the Super Bowl at home? Saints by 10.

Gabe: Saints - The Saints have too much rolling in their favor for this not to happen. They are going to have even the most casual fans rooting for them because, like Dave said, how can anyone root against them post-Katrina? They are, for as long as they stay alive in these playoffs, America's team. Drew Brees (Drew Breeeeeees!) is playing out of his mind right now, as he has most of the season. The Saints offense is a machine that can't be stopped. Their defense is going to be motivated, especially Darren Sharper, and will be looking to cause havoc on and get turnovers from Old Man Favre and the rest of the Minnesota offense. AP has not been running well and Percy Harvin is hurt and might not play. Also, the crowd noise is going to be a huge factor in this game too. Some of the Viking defenders were actually talking about wearing ear plugs for this game. That is a bad sign. It only take a few offsides penalties to make a defense start playing tentatively. All of that being said, I think Favre wills the Vikings into playing well because that man has been here before. I think the Saints win with a late touchdown, 31-24.

And God, could you imagine the ratings for a Colts-Saints Super Bowl? Even my wife would be interested in that one.

Divisional Round Picks

The good news: After a nearly month long streak of dropping stink bombs week after week with my picks, I(Dave) finally got back into early season form and went 4-0 to start the playoffs.



The bad news: I came into the post season down 14 games to Gabe with 11 to play, which pretty much made aforementioned 4-0 Wild Card record meaningless.



Anyway, here are our picks for Round 2



Last Week: Dave 4-0, Gabe 2-2



Season: Gabe 138-115-5, Dave 126-127-5



Cardinals (+7) at Saints



Dave: Saints - With the Packers out of the playoffs, I'm officially rooting for the Saints from here on out, as well as a Saints-Chargers Super Bowl. Actually, I'm pretty much rooting for anyone but Dallas because, quite frankly, Cowboys fans overreact after even the most marginal of wins the way an old lady's bladder overreacts when she gets nervous. Both scenarios are quite annoying and should be avoided at all costs. As for the showdown where defenses will be left on the sidelines, this game comes down to Drew Brees not doing what Aaron Rodgers did last week: Giving the ball to Kurt Warner and his offense on a short field by turning it over. Neither team is prolific running the ball(though it's nice that Duece McAllister is back for N'Awlins) and neither team plays enough defense to think that this won't be another shootout like last week's Packers-Cards Wild Card(*tear*). I think people are sleeping on the Saints because of the way the last three weeks played out for them, and it's hard to bet on a team that choked away a 21-point lead at home and needed a fumble in overtime to advance. Saints by 10.

Gabe: New Orleans - If there were a theme to my picks this week it would be "Rest vs. Momentum." That is the chic question to ask during this round of the playoffs. I typically lean towards the team with momentum rather than the team that hasn't played in two weeks, or in the case of the Saints, hasn't played meaningfully in three or four weeks. I am going against that philosophy in this game for one reason...Kurt Warner. These teams are remarkably similar. Great quarterbacks, elite receivers, below average running games, and incredibly pourous defenses. The difference is in the quarterbacks. Drew Brees and Kurt Warner are both accurate qb's who can tear up a defense, but Warner is old and less mobile. I think this game is going to be a shootout but the Saints D is going to be able to get to Warner more than the Cards get to Drew Brees. So I'll take the Saints, led by (it's been far too long) Drew Breeeees, to win by 9.



Ravens (+6) at Colts



Dave: Ravens - Even with a week(or three) of rest, it's hard not to expect this game to be close given a. the Colts don't have much of a D to stop Ray Rice, b. the Ravens D will be smacking Peyton Manning in the mouth routinely and c. Joe Flacco sucks out loud. The Colts could bog down on the run and force Flacco to beat them, but that would make too much sense. Peyton throws a couple of picks but I think this is inevitably won on a late field goal. Colts by 3.

Gabe: Colts - I am once again going against my tendency to pick the team with momentum. The Ravens will not be smacking Peyton Manning around. Somehow that guy magically doesn't get hit. The layoff means the Colts will be well rested and, more importantly, they'll have had time to watch film and breakdown the Ravens schemes. Manning is the best at reading the defense and reacting. I think it is going to take the Colt's a little time at the beginning of the game to knock the rust off, but after that I think they'll cruise. Now, is it possible that during the "rust-knocking-off" time the Ravens run wild and build up a 17 point lead, sure, just ask the Patriots about that. I just don't think that is going to happen. Colts by 7.

Cowboys (+3) at Vikings


Dave: Cowboys - I'll tell you what: I'll allow you to Google Brett Favre's famous playoff performances in '98(Super Bowl against Denver), '01(against the Rams), '03(against Atlanta), '04(against Philly) and '07(against Gabe's Giants) right now, if you promise to come right back when you're done laughing. Also, Google Adrian Peterson's fumble history. Man, this really goes against my hope that Dallas won't make the Super Bowl. Cowboys by 7 in a coaching disaster-piece by both squads.

Gabe: Cowboys - The more I think about it, the more I think this might be the easiest game of the weekend to pick. People always want to talk about the Vikings elite offensive personnel. They have AP and an aging Brett Favre, but outside of them, who scares you? A rookie wide-out? A tight end who at one time was the 3rd tight end on the Giants' depth chart? Now look at the Cowboys...Tony Romo is playing the best football of his life right now. Miles Austin is playing great. They have Marion Barber and Felix Jones running the ball. In addition, and this might be the most important, they have Jason Witten. If I had a secondary theme for the Sunday games it would be "uncoverable tight ends."

Ok, now please allow me to put my football nerd hat on for the rest of this. Everyone talks about the Vikings defense and the numbers they put up. Well, last week, in their first four plays, the Cowboys came out in four different formations. The Cowboys have the offensive personnel to be able to deftly switch from a basic two RB-two WR set to 5-wides with an empty backfield to two tight ends, and so on. This throws a defense way off. It creates match-up problems for a defense and it makes them hesitate and think about their assignments. Oh, and the Cowboys defense is pretty good too. Cowboys by 10.

Jets (+7) at Chargers

Dave: Jets - The Chargers are the masters of epic fails when it comes to the playoffs, which makes my preseason Super Bowl pick of them winning the Super Bowl(as well as the potential of picking the champion for the 2nd year in a row) tenuous at best. San Diego struggles against the run, which is the one thing the Jets do well. On top of that, better receivers than Vincent Jackson have struggled on how to figure out the combination to beat Master Lock Revis, which means the game comes down to whether the Jets can stop Antonio Gates. I say they can't, but a heavy dose of Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones wears down the clock and keeps it close. Chargers escape a nail biter, and win on a late missed field goal by Jay Feely. Chargers by 2.

Gabe: Chargers - I know the Jets are the sexy pick this weekend. I don't like them for a few reasons. One, travel. The Jets have to go all the way across the country for this game. That always has an effect. Two, their defense. That's right, their crazy good blitz first defense. I don't think they match up well with San Diego. Let's say Darrelle Revis does his thing and takes Vincent Jackson out of the game. Who is going to cover Antonio Gates? (Remember what I said about uncoverable tight ends?) Who is going to cover 6'5" Malcolm Floyd? They still have LT and Darren Sproles coming out of the backfield. And, they have Philip Rivers delivering the ball to all of those guys. The Jets are going to want to control the ball with their running game and keep the game in the 17 to 20 points per team range. I don't think they'll be able to keep the Chargers offense down. Chargers by 9.

Wild-Card Playoff Picks...and a Little Housekeeping

Before we get to picking this weekend's NFL playoff games, let's wrap up our picks for the regular season.

In Week 17 we posted identical records, so obviously, Dave did not make up the 14 games he was behind, and Gabe has won the 2009 Boom Roasted Sports season long series. For that Gabe wins no prize other than being able to end every argument with "Oh yeah? Well I can pick NFL games against the spread better than you."

Here are the numbers:

Last Week:
Gabe: 8-6-2
Dave: 8-6-2
(The Houston-New England and Washington-San Diego games were both a push.)

Season:
Gabe: 136-113-5
Dave: 122-127-5

Let us march on to the playoffs!.....

Dave is out making his legal money right now, so his picks will be without explanation until further notice.

New York Jets (+2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Gabe: New York Jets - The NFL is kicking off the playoffs with what I think will be a great game. In what will become a common theme to my picks this week....don't look too closely at last week's game. Last week the Jets smoked the Bengals. This week won't be as close. I think Darrelle Revis will take Chad Ochocinco completely out of the game again, which means the Bengals will have to rely on Laveraneus Coles and Andre Caldwell to catch the ball. Cedric Benson will be playing this time around, but the Jets defense will be able to focus on him. I think Mark Sanchez will do just enough for the Jets to win by a late field goal.

Dave: Jets- I struggled with this one the most. The Bengals, much like Steelers LB LaMarr Woodley predicted, laid down for the Jets last week so you have to take that debacle with an Andre Smith-sized grain of salt. That being said, it's hard to root for a team that puts handcuffs on its Pro Bowl QB and Pro Bowl WR and restricts itself into being a ball-control, grind-out-the-clock running team. You don't just waste a combo like Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco by treating Palmer like he's Spergeon Wynn. Now, the protect-the-football-by-running-it-down-their-throats-and-not-letting-our-QB-fuck-things-up strategy works for the Jets because a. they have two fine RBs in Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones(whereas Cincy just has Cedric Benson) and b. Mark Sanchez is a rookie QB with 20 INTs to his name. Again, tough call here because we don't know what Bengals team shows up, but at gun point, I'd take Revis to shut down Ocho Cinco once again and Gang Green wins on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) at Dallas Cowboys

Gabe: Dallas - The big factor in this game to me is travel. The Eagles were in Dallas on Sunday, went back to Philly, and have to travel back to Dallas for the game on Saturday. Here is another thing....the Cowboys have shut down DeSean Jackson better than any team this year. He is averaging 11 yards-per-touch against the Cowboys, 17 ypc against everyone else. He has also had only two plays of twenty yards or more against the Cowboys. Needless to say, Dallas has his number. Dallas is playing too well right now. They have shed all of their December demons. I think they win by 10.

Dave: Cowboys - Yes, I know the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since '96. Yes, Wade Phillips hasn't been the same since "The Music City Miracle". Yes, it's hard to beat a team like Philadelphia three straight times. However, there is a perfectly reasonable explanation for my pick of Dallas...........I'm shooting for the reverse jinx. Much like picking against Green Bay has helped by Packers win, I'm hoping that my lousy picking down the stretch will somehow curse the Cowboys. Shit, I'm even willing to hire Fan Man to drop down from the rafters whenever Dallas is in the red zone. Look, we all know Philly plays its best when nothing is expected of them. They're as reliable under pressure as 100-year old pipes, but the Cowboys are the heavyweight champs of shitting the bed when it matters most and the worst thing that could have happened to Dallas is fans and media finally believing there's hope for them this year. So I'm rooting for Philly here, but as a safeguard, I'll say Cowboys by 10.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) at New England Patriots

Gabe: New England - Tom Brady is playing skittish and hurt. The Pats are missing Wes Welker, although that Edelman kid has filled in nicely. The Ravens are dealing with their own injury problems. Rookie defensive back LaDarius Webb is out and that is having a bigger impact that people imagined. I'll give the edge to New England because they are at home. Foxborough is a hostile environment for opposing teams. Pats by 4.

Dave: Ravens- Last time these two met, the Ravens came within a Mark Clayton drop on 4th down on the final drive of upending New England. Now, Brady is a bit more beat up(despite what Ray Lewis believes) and the Pats have lost their most reliable receiver in Wes Welker. Plus, if the weather gets as cold as it should get in New England in January, that means the Pats will have to go to the run. You know who gets bored when the Pats run more than they pass to start the game? That's right: Randy Moss. If a steady dose of Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris won't do the trick to uninspire Moss, then the triple coverage the Ravens will put on him certainly will. Meanwhile, inclement weather suits the Ravens just fine, who won't let the game rely on Clayton's stone hands again and will instead stick to running it with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee and dumpoffs to Todd Heap and Derrick Mason. Ravens pull off the upset here, win by 3.

Green Bay Packers (pk) at Arizona Cardinals

Gabe: Green Bay - Arizona is hurt and very inconsistent. Green Bay had a better record during the regular season. Aaron Rodger is playing out of his mind and the Green Bay defense is playing great. Packers by 7.

Dave: Cardinals (Gabe's note: I think this is because every time Dave picks against his beloved Packers...they win.) 17 weeks of doing picks together will help any person figure out the strategies of their counterpart. So, yes, Gabe is 100% correct in suggesting that this Cards pick is another attempt at keeping a good thing going. Like with Cincy, it's hard to gauge last week's ass-whooping the Pack gave Arizona because Arizona gave up after the second drive. Still, they'll likely go without Anquan Boldin and have two big ifs on defense in leading-sacker Calias Campbell and leading interceptor Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. So, naturally, I like my boys to take care of business, but as the old cliche goes, if something works, keep doing it until it stops working.

Week 13 Picks cont...

If Gabe was thankful for anything this past Thanksgiving, it's that his one win last Thursday(as opposed to my 0-3 on Turkey Day) gave him a one-game edge for the week and pushed his season series lead to two. We also had this year's first tie, thanks to the compelling Arizona-Tennessee game that ended with an amazing catch from Kenny Britt(FROM: Rutgers) at the end of regulation. That being said, here's the rest of our Week 13 picks



LAST WEEK: Gabe: 6-9-1, Dave: 5-10-1



SEASON: Gabe 97-76-1, Dave: 95-78-1



THIS WEEK: Gabe 1-0, Dave 1-0



Broncos(-4.5) at Chiefs



Dave: Chiefs - The Chiefs have screwed me all season, whether it be picking them in an upset(like last week against SD) or picking them to get steam-rolled(two weeks ago against Pittsburgh). So, with my selection of KC here, that means the Broncos should win this one by 14. However, the Broncos are 1-16 lifetime in December at Arrowhead and, Thanksgiving's dismantling of Gabe's Giants not withstanding, I'm still not very impressed with Josh McDaniels' boys. I like the emergence of Jamaal Charles and Chris Chambers here, not enough to call for the upset, but perhaps to only lose by a field goal.

Gabe: Broncos - I think the Broncos will have momentum after smoking the Giants. They'll have had 10 days to prepare for the lowly Chiefs. I think the Broncos roll and win by 10.

Raiders (+14.5) at Steelers



Dave: Raiders - Oddly enough, I'd like Pittsburgh to cover here if they went with Dennis Dixon over a woozy Big Ben. You don't just step in a couple weeks after your fourth concussion and go back to putting up 400-yard games. The Steelers have been solid running the ball with Rashard Mendenhall and that takes pressure off Ben and the passing game, but the Raiders are pesky(as proven in wins over Philly and Cincy) and Nnamdi Asomugha is good enough corner to make Big Ben pay if for some reason his dizziness forces him to throw Nnamdi's way. I like the Steelers here, but it's hard to like them more than two touchdowns when their QB has half his wits. Steelers by 13.

Gabe: Steelers - The big reason I am taking the Steelers here is because of the travel. The lack of success of West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast is well documented. The Steelers need this win to stay in the playoff hunt. I think the Steelers make a statement and win by 17.

Houston (PK) at Jacksonville

Dave: Houston - Jacksonville might be the worst team that might make the playoffs in NFL history. They're horrible against the pass because their pass rush is non-existent and that doesn't help against Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. The Texans have been a huge bust thanks to their Jason Biggs-like inability to close and it's easy to give the Jags the edge because their at home and fighting for a playoff spot, but this season has been so nutty, you have to expect a letdown somewhere. I reluctantly like Houston here by a touchdown.

Gabe: Houston - The last time these teams played Matt Schaub threw for about 1100 yards and Mojo D ran for about 640 yards (those numbers may be exaggerated.) Since then the Texans have become the best run defending team in the league. Even the 150 yards they gave up to Chris Johnson last week was little more than half of the total he had the first time they played this season. The Jags still have one of the worst pass defenses in the league. I think the Texans contain Mojo and Schaub goes nuts again. Texans win by 7.



Titans (+6.5) at Colts



Dave: Titans - We keep waiting for the Colts to finally fall and it never happens. Do I think it happens against red-hot Tennessee? No. Do I think Vince Young can make it close against a beat-up Colts defense? Sure. Peyton Manning, who is intentionally out to make me take back my Drew Brees MVP pick, has not been the same QB he was in first month but he's still been pretty good. However, the Titans D has also improved as their QB has, and I think they frustrate Manning into one of those hard to watch 16-13 games, with Indy on top.

Gabe: Titans - I'll say it again, I'm picking up what the Titans are putting down. The Colts have been winning close games and getting by because of Peyton Manning and his laser rocket arm. Vince Young has always had a strong arm and he is all of a sudden a good quarterback. I think Young will do well against the Colts beat-up secondary and Chris Johnson will do his thing. I like the Titans for the outright win in my....wait for it...Upset Special!!



Eagles (-5.5) at Falcons


Dave: Eagles - No Matt Ryan, No Michael Turner for the Dirty Birds. That's bad news facing a Eagles team that is desperately trying to stay afloat in the NFC East. Also, in the Storylines That Get Forgotten Because They Happened The Same Year As Brett Favre's HGH-Addled Lambeau Return: Mike Vick returns to Atlanta for the first time since going to prison. I say Vick makes a play or two and the Eagles win this one going away. Eagles by 14.

Gabe: Eagles - The Falcons are really beat up. The Eagles have a lot to play for. Mike Vick comes back to Atlanta, which is not really getting a lot of play. I think the Eagles will roll, and win by 10.



Lions (+13) at Bengals

Dave: Lions -I like Matthew Stafford. I think he has great moxie and poise and his cannon arm will complement Calvin Johnson for as long as the two remain together. That being said, he should have been sipping Gatorade by halftime on Turkey Day. With the game out of reach, there was no excuse for Stafford to go through unneeded punishment against a hungry Packers D. Now, as for this week, I see Stafford throwing a few to the other team here as he's facing the underrated corner tandem of Leon Hall and Jonathan Joesph. So why do I like the Lions? Because the Bengals' offense doesn't have the explosiveness to warrant a 13-point spread, even with Cedric Benson back. Bengals grind out another W, win by 10.

Gabe: Bengals - I think the Bengals have too much offense. They have too much talent and are going to grind the ball. The big reason why I like the Bengals to cover this big spread is their defense. They have a great front seven and put lots of pressure on opposing qb's. I think the Bengals win by 17.

Saints(-9.5) at Redskins

Dave: Redskins - Picking the Chiefs, Lions, Raiders and Redskins in the same week? I must be asking for an ass-whooping! Look, I don't think Washington stops the streaking Saints here, but the Redskins are a better team at home and with the weather being a wee bit snowy, that will limit Drew Brees a little bit and force him to use the run game a little more. Remember, the Saints squeaked by St. Louis in a game they should have routed. So I like N.O. here, but only by 6.

Gabe: Redskins - Who has the no. 2 defense, in terms of yards allowed, in the NFL? The Washington Redskins. This is the type of game for which, historically, the Redskins get themselves hyped. They have played poorly all season and now get a chance to flex their muscle late in the year, at home, against a good team. I wouldn't be surprised if the Skins win straight-up, so I'll take them to beat the spread.


Bucs(+5) at Panthers

Dave: Bucs - Yup, picking the Bucs here, too. Jake Delhomme is out(which is actually a good thing) and DeAngelo Williams is hurt(which is a bad thing). Yes, the Bucs suck hard. Yes, the Panthers are at home. But I like Josh Freeman more than I like Matt Moore. Plus, Cadillac Williams went for nearly 80 yards and a score on this Panthers D last time. The Panthers have been the kings of Letdown City, so I like Tampa for the upset here......and I also like me to increase my deficit to Gabe by about 5 games by Tuesday.

Gabe: Panters - The Bucs stink. Jake Delhomme isn't playing so Steve Smith might actually catch more than two passes this week. Jonathan Stewart will run wild against the Bucs. Plus Carolina is at home. The Cats win by 9.



Rams (+9.5) at Bears


Dave: Bears - Almost got cute and took St. Louis here, but I think this is the week we see Jay Cutler and company put it all together. They spent the week getting called out by injured linebacker Brian Urlacher and, with Mike Shanahan breathing down Lovie Smith's neck, I think they take the chains off the offense and let 'er rip. Big games from Forte and Cutler, and Steven Jackson for that matter. Bears by 17.

Gabe: Rams - I am going to get cute. Steven Jackson is playing well right now. The Bears aren't a team to step-up in the face of adversity, much less the psychological mine-field that comes along with the Shananhan rumors. Cutler can throw 4 INT's against anyone. I don't think the Rams win outright, but they keep it close. Bears by 7.



Chargers (-14) at Browns



Dave: Chargers - If you listen closely, you can hear small children in Indonesia stitching together a Colt McCoy Browns jersey.........SD by 21. (P.S. Each week, the Chargers make my SB pick look good.)

Gabe: Chargers - San Diego is playing great. The Browns are the 4th best team in Ohio behind the Bengels, Bearcats, and Buckeyes. (Why do all major sports teams in Ohio start their team nicknames with B?) The Chargers win huge.

49ers (PK) at Seahawks

Dave: 49ers - Prediction: Niners overcome the 2-game hole to Arizona and win the NFC West. With Arizona playing Minnesota and the Niners getting a gimme here against Seattle, that sets up the possibility of SF taking the division lead if they can beat the Cards(which they already did IN ARIZONA in Week 1) on Monday night next week. The schedule the rest of the way? After next week's title fight, SF travels to Philly, then feasts on Detroit and St. Louis. Same goes for Arizona, except instead of Philly, they get a playoff-hunting Green Bay in Week 17. Niners would win the tiebreaker if they enter next Tuesday tied and I can't see either team losing more than once after next Monday. As for this week's game, Seahawks suck, Niners don't. Niners by 9.

Gabe: 49ers - Read the last sentence of what Dave wrote - the Seahawks suck, the Niners don't. Niners win by a touchdown.

Vikings (-3) at Cardinals


Dave: Vikings - Same rules apply for a woozy Kurt Warner that apply to Big Ben. You don't just recover from a concussion in a week and a half and step back onto the field and zing bullets. In the case of the Cardinals, they won't be able to turn to the run game against the Williams Wall. Plus, as much as we all would like to see Benedict Favre implode, I'm afraid the steroids haven't worn off yet. Vikings speed past Arizona here(Get it? Speed? Because AP and Berrian.....oh, nevermind!), win by 10.

Gabe: Vikings - I want to know why this line is only 3. The Vikings are great on every side of the ball. Favre, AP, Berrian, Rice, and Harvin are going to run all over the Cardinals defense. The Williams wall and Jared Allen are going have a field day against whoever is under center for Arizona. The Vikings roll and win by 14.



Cowboys (-2.5) at Giants



Dave: Cowboys - Tough game. Giants are finished and the Cowboys suck in December. From what I'm hearing, it's not expected to be typical Jersey weather for this one, which means we won't get to see Romo sucking it up in the snow(nor do we get to see Eli's "bullet passes" deflate in the Meadowlands wind). The two biggest proponents to the Giants win over Dallas last time(Kenny Phillips and Antonio Pierce) are done for the season and all signs point to Eli joining them(if not by halftime, certainly after they lose this one and fall out of the playoff hunt). I'd love to see the Cowboys crumble, but this Giants team is an enigma. Cowboys by 6.

Gabe: Cowboys - Enigma. That is the perfect word to characterize this game. The Cowboys suck in December, especially outdoors. Both teams need this win. The Giants might already be packing it in for the season though. They beat the Cowboys earlier in the year, but like Dave said, the key proponents of that win are hurt. So what wins out? The Giants being done. The Cowboys still want to play, the Giants don't. As much as it hurts, the Cowboys win by 10.

Patriots (-4) at Dolphins

Dave: Patriots - We keep waiting for Belichick to respond to the criticism with a trademark steamrolling of some lowly opponent. Miami normally plays New England tough but that's usually with Ronnie Brown in the lineup(which, this time, he is not). Brady doesn't look all the way back from his knee blow out and the Dolphins are tough defensively so this can be a trap, but I just can't see The Hoodie dropping two straight with all the fire he's come under. Pats by 6.

Gabe: Dolphins - Brady looks skittish on certain throws, at least that is what the ESPN NFL match-up show tells me. If they know it, then Parcells knows it, and the rest of the Dolphins know it. The game is in Miami so there will be an effect no one ever talks about...cold weather teams getting gassed in the heat. I think Miami pressures Brady and does just enough to win. Miami by 3.


Ravens(+3) at Packers

Dave: Ravens - Purely selfish pick here. Packers are 3-0 when I pick against them and my boys need a win here. To be more specific, while the Packers have done a better job of protecting Aaron Rodgers and this Ravens D is very susceptible to the pass, they're still dangerous. Ray Rice(FROM: RUTGERS!) makes plays on the ground and through the air and Joe Flacco is better than he's played lately. Ravens by 3.

Gabe: Packers - I don't know why really...except that whenever Dave picks against the Pack, they win, and usually big. Ummm...apparently Aaron Rodgers plays well on third down (thanks again NFL Match-Up), and the game is in Lambeau. Packers by 4.

Week 13 Picks

Week 13 kicks off in Toronto this week as the Bills "host" the Jets on a "nationally-televised" game that will be watched by more Canadians than Americans. Here's our take:



Jets(-3) at Bills



Dave: Jets - I'd love to pick a tie here. I can honestly see the Jets winning this one by a field goal. The game's in Toronto, so there's no home field advantage and the last time these two met, Thomas Jones ran all over them (9.5 YPC, which was higher than Mark Sanchez's QB rating of 8.3). I like Darrelle Revis to bring T.O. back to the realm of obscurity, and the Jets to focus on shutting down Fred Jackson. Jets by 6 in a snoozer.

Gabe: Jets - I know, it's boring when Dave and I don't go oppo, but it is what it is. Like Dave said, Revis is going to shut down T.O. The Jets are going to be able to focus on Fred Jackson. The Bills pass defense is decent so they should hold Sanchez in check, so to me the difference in the game will be Thomas Jones. I think he has a decent game and the Jets win by 9.

Week 11 Picks, a start...

Week 11 of the NFL season starts tonight with another NFL Network game, so about 4.3% of the country will be able to watch it. And because it's Miami at Carolina only about 4.3% of those people are going to care.

But, we here at BRS don't judge such things, we just pick the games. So here goes....

Miami (+3) at Carolina

Gabe: Carolina - Carolina has been playing much better lately, especially in their running game. Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams are banged up, which will just be exasperated by the short rest. But Miami is missing Ronnie Brown. Brown is the key to their Wildcat offense. I think the Carolina defense will step up and slow the Miami's-Ronnie-Brown-less offense. Carolina by 6.

Dave: Carolina - The Panthers have been a tough team to figure out all season, so they very well could get steam-rolled by a beat-up but always game Dolphins team. Still, not having Ronnie Brown hurts this team tremendously as he's not only the best running option but the main orchestrator of their base offense, The Wildcat. Plus, the Dolphins once-stout D has softened a bit(oddly enough, right after Joey Porter opened his yap) and that tends to be a concern when playing a team that can move the ball on the ground as well as the Panthers. I like the home team here, Panthers by 9, with Jake Delhomme throwing a TAINT just for old time's sake.

Week 10 Picks......

This week, the NFL will be playing a game on Thursday night for the first time since the regular season kickoff. So here's our take on tonight's 49ers-Bears showdown(Side note: For last week's results as well as the season records so far, wait til Sunday.)

Bears(+3) at 49ers

Dave: Bears- Quick rant.....who the hell is Vernon Davis to call out anyone, let alone the Bears defense? How can this man be entitled to tell anyone else that they suck? Granted, the Bears D is hardly the juggernaut it once was, but have you been watching your squad the last month, VD? I believe you've lost four straight. I believe your D just got torn up by Vince Young and the Titans a few days ago. Vince Young! He was popping Zanex three weeks ago and he shredded you like Wolverine. Also, aren't you the same guy who cried like a baby on Draft Day? Didn't your coach, in one of his more famous outbursts, preach to the media IN HIS FIRST POSTGAME CONFERENCE as head coach that he can't win with you? Didn't he send you to the lockers at halftime of said game. So, really, Vernon, shut the hell up. Sure, you've enjoyed a nice little resurgence from the Land of Insignificance but you're not Antonio Gates.

As for the game, these teams are both even in my eyes and while normally I'd give the edge to the home team, I think Davis' big mouth motivates the Bears D to show a pulse for the first time since the '06 Super Bowl. I also am a firm believer in The Curse of Crabtree and the fact that, with Nate Clements out, there's nobody to cover Devin Hester(albeit a hobbled Devin Hester). Bears by 6.

Gabe: 49ers - I've said many times that here at Boom Roasted we are unashamed fantasy football nerds, so for today's pick I'm going to give you a tip you can take to your big Italian friend in Vegas, and some fantasy advice. Here is the fantasy advice. The 49ers are among the best in the league at defending opposing tight ends. If you see your tight end is matched up against the Niners anytime, find a better option. Even though he scored 3 TD's last week (on yours truly's bench for my big money team) I think he is due for a letdown. And, because Matt Forte is having a pedestrian year, and the Bears receivers are Devin Hester and something called Johnny Knox, Olsen is their best offensive player. Now for the tip for your paison...the Niners shut down Olsen and the Bears offense. Vernon Davis backs up his talk, because he's a freak. Niners by 6.

NFL Picks, Week 7

Week 6 was a crazy week for our picks. Overall, Dave was 8-6 and I was 7-7. We each missed the Pittsburgh line by a point. The Minnesota/Baltimore line was 3.5 and the game was decided by 2 points. Dave was on the right side of that one; I was on the wrong side. I nailed the Atlanta game exactly. Oh, and I took Tennessee to beat the spread against New England. That's the worst prediction I've made since I took the British and gave the points in the American Revolution.

Anyway, Dave leads for the season, 56-34 to 53-37.

On to Week 7...

San Diego (-5) at Kansas City

Gabe: Kansas City - San Diego is not that good. Kansas City is not as bad as their record indicates. This line is too big. I think San Diego wins by a field goal.

Dave: Kansas City - The Chiefs have proven to be scrappier than Doug Christie's wife in the tunnel at Arco Arena so far this season. The Chargers have seem to give up on coach Norv Turner and, while the Chiefs aren't the team they once were, it's still tough to go into Arrowhead and get a W. Chiefs win it outright by a field goal.

Indianapolis (-13.5) at St. Louis

Gabe: Indianapolis - St. Louis is historically bad. Indy is not going to let this game get close. Peyton Manning and his laser rocket arm will have Indy up big early and they stay ahead in one of the least competitive games of the season.

Dave: Indianapolis - The Colts could start Johnny Unitas and still win this game. Look, Peyton Manning's playing like a guy who wants to take the single season TD record back from Tom Brady and against a Rams defense that's softer than cotton, I think he goes for 6 scores in this one. Colts have this one early and Rams coach Steve Spagnoulo flirts with bringing in Albert Pujols to play QB by halftime.

Chicago (pk) at Cincinnati

Gabe: Cincinnati - I think Cincy should be favored in this game. They are at home. Aside from the Houston game they have been playing very well. Chicago has been up and down all year. I think Cincy wins.


Dave: Chicago - Disgruntled players or coaches facing their former team are 3-0 so far this season(Benedict Favre vs. Green Bay, Torry Holt vs. Nellyville, Josh McDaniels vs. The Boston Hoodie), but I think Bengals RB Cedric Benson angered the Karma Gods by running his mouth this week about how the Bears blackballed him upon his release a year ago. Not only that, but the Bengals showed last week that they don't have much pass rush with DE Antwan Odom done for the year and not having a pass rush against Jay Cutler and the Chicago Speed Patrol(Hester, Knox, Bennett....I'm just full of nicknames today!) tends to do more harm than good. Bears pull off the road win and stay in the hunt in the North.


Green Bay (-8.5) at Cleveland

Gabe: Green Bay - Green Bay better win this game by 10 or more. Cleveland is awful. Their best player is now a New York Jet. Green Bay should roll.


Dave: Green Bay - Same rules apply this week as they did last week for the Pack. Significantly inferior opponent, this time made more inferior by half the team contracting swine flu, in a game the Packers need to stay afloat in the NFC North. Packers flirt with back-to-back shutouts, Clay Matthews makes another move towards Defensive ROY, and Rodgers only gets sacked twice. Packers by 20.

Minnesota (+6) at Pittsburgh

Gabe: Minnesota - I think this game is going to be close either direction. I think Pittsburgh is the better team, but the Vikings always keep it close. I think Pittsburgh wins, but by less than six.


Dave: Pittsburgh - Call it bitterness if you want but I'm buying the Vikings more as a team of fortune than a team of skill. They nearly blew a 13 point lead to Green Bay a few weeks ago, despite notching nearly 100 sacks and forcing two turnovers(and Benedict Favre suddenly finding The Fountian of Juice, er, Youth). They beat San Fran on a lucky fling into the end zone. They escaped Baltimore last week thanks to a shanked field goal in the closing seconds after the Ravens were down 14 in the 4th quarter. Eventually, that good fortune has to wear off. They'll be playing without top corner Antione Winfield against a Steelers' O that can beat through the air or on the ground(Also, newsflash to all the experts slurping the Vikings D, you can move the ball on these guys. Aaron Rodgers nearly went for 400 yards on them, despite only have 3 offensive linemen!) Steelers win this one big.

New England (-14.5) vs. Tampa Bay (in London)

Gabe: New England - Tampa Bay sucks anywhere on U.S. soil. Now they have to travel across the pond to England. Forget it. New England flirts with the shutout again and wins huge.


Dave: New England - Here's a better bet to place.....imagine the spread of the Pats facing the Tampa Bay Lightning or the Tampa Bay Rays or, shit, even the University of Central Florida....I'd say all those teams make it closer than the Bucs will against Brady's Bunch in The House That Ringo Built. Patriots don't get the shutout but win this one going away.

San Francisco (+3) at Houston

Gabe: Houston - Houston's problem at the beginning of the year was run defense. Well, over the last three games they have given up only 45 yards per game on the ground, second best in the league during that span. Frank Gore will test them, but I don't think he will be enough. The 49ers are 20th in the league in pass defense. Houston's pass offense ranks 3rd in the NFL. (If you read the brilliance that is the Houston Texans page at www.sportstalkbuzz.com you'd know all of this already.) This is a classic case of weakness vs. strength. Houston wins by 10.


Dave: San Francisco - It took all of two weeks for the Niners to submissively bend over to Michael Crabtree by giving him the starting job after he sat and pouted for months over his contract. Certainly, that could anger the Karma Gods, but the Texans have a tendency to shit the bed in games they should win(the Jags game comes to mind) and the Niners need this one pretty bad to hold on to their first place tie in the West. Niners are coming off a bye and I think The Inconvenient Truth puts a dent in the #2 run defense. Niners pull off the road win by 6.

N.Y. Jets (-6) at Oakland

Gabe: Oakland - Last week the Raiders came together and beat the Eagles. That was no fluke. Sure, they were helped by Andy Reid's run, run, run, punt offense, but their defense played very well. The Jets started hot but are now coming back to earth. I think the Jets' slide continues and the Raiders, despite being an organizational disaster, build on last week and get the outright win in my...wait for it...Upset Special!!!


Dave: Jets - I told you, I'm not cosigning JaMarcus Russell. Not even after he showed a pulse in a big upset of the Eagles last week. Not even after Big Fat Kris Jenkins was carted off and put on IR, killing the Jets' run defense. Not after The Sanchize morphed into John David Booty against the Bills. The loss of Jenkins is going to hurt the Jets at some point, but guess what, the Raiders can't run the ball. If Darren McFadden was a go in this one, I'd bite the bullet and take Dead Al's boys, but he's not and I think Mark Sanchez knows the backlash from the NY media if he loses here.

Buffalo (+7) at Carolina

Gabe: Buffalo - Ugh. I wouldn't watch this game if it were being played in my backyard. I'm taking Buffalo simply because seven is too many points either way. Whoever wins will do so by 3.
Dave: Buffalo - I have to agree with Gabe on this one, 7 points is too much for a team that is absolutely terrified to throw the ball. Panthers get their Clipse on and grind it out with D-Will and The Daily Show and Steve Smith starts punching out teammates by halftime. Panthers by 3.

New Orleans (-6) at Miami

Gabe: New Orleans - No one can stop New Orleans and Drew "MFin" Brees right now. Miami's defense is not that good and the Saints defense is much better than it has been lately. The Saints continue to roll and win by at least a touchdown.


Dave: New Orleans - This has all the makings of a trap game. Dolphins are solid defensively, have a tricky gimmick offense and their at home. That being said, the Saints have Drew "Motherfuckin'" Brees(my mother told me to always cuss for emphasis)! The Saints are solid defensively as well and I think this could be a good week for the other half of the Bush N' Tush combo to bust out(Reggie or Kim K, whichever you choose). Saints by 10, with 3 TDs by Drew Breeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees.......THAT'S WHAT I'M TALKIN' ABOUT!

Atlanta (+4) at Dallas

Gabe: Dallas - The Cowboys still have a lot to prove and they need to start winning games to keep pace in the NFC. The 'Boys are coming off a bye so they are rested. Because they are at home I'm taking them to win by a touchdown.


Dave: Atlanta - Lest we forget, this is a Cowboys team that needed overtime to beat the Chiefs. The Falcons have the better quarterback, better receivers and arguably, the better running back. The defenses are about similar unless DeMarcus Ware stops reading the Carlos Zambrano Book of How To Perform When Seeking A New Contract and starts providing a pass rush for Dallas. Look, I'll believe the Cowboys can beat a good team when they actually do it. 'Til then, I like the Falcons by 10. Three picks for Romo.

Arizona (+7) at N.Y. Giants

Gabe: New York - The Giants will be at home looking to bounce back from their embarrassing loss last week. They are angry and will be motivated. The G-Men's pass rush always harasses Kurt Warner. I think Old Man Warner gets beat up and the Giants win big.

Dave: New York - Weather will probably turn this game into a run-fest as neither Warner or Eli can really throw into the wind. At press time, the weather report looks like it will be about 40 degrees and windy at Giants Stadium. I like the combo of Jacobs and Bradshaw over Hightower and Weenie Wells. Giants barely cover, win by 9.

Philadelphia (-7) at Washington

Gabe: Philadelphia - This is a division game, so we know both teams should be jacked to play. Philly will also be angry over losing last week to Oakland, so they will be coming out snorting. We all know how bad Washington is on the field and what a mess they are in the organization. Philly wins by 10.

Dave: Philadelphia - Really? I have to explain this one? I'll put it this way: I'd take Robin Givens in a fight over Mike Tyson before I take the Redskins over ANYONE.

Week 6 Picks

Well, Dave and I both bounced back after a miserable Week 4 and posted identical 9-5 records in our picks last week.

This brings our season totals to 48-28 for Dave and 46-30 for Gabe.

This week, and for the rest of the season I presume, we will be using Danny Sheridan's odds in the USA Today. I've tried to get cute and use the Las Vegas Hilton numbers from Covers.com, but have proven week after week that I don't know how to read them correctly. Thanks to Dave though, none of you saw any of that.

Alright, enough nonsense, let's get to the picks.

Kansas City (+6) at Washington

Gabe: Kansas City - Washington is where losing streaks get broken. The Redskins are in shambles. Kansas City is better than their 0-fer record shows. I don't know if Kansas City will win the game, but they will beat the number.

Dave: Kansas City- After last week, I wouldn't even take the Redskins over Villanova. Zorn is a termination waiting to happen and I think this game will be a precursor to the 'Skins inevitably shitting the bed on Monday night and losing by 42 to the Eagles next week. Chiefs win outright, by a field goal.

Houston (+5.5) at Cincinnati

Gabe: Houston - If you read my preview at www.sportstalkbuzz.com (Boom! - Cross-promoted) you would already know that I think this will be a shoot-out. The Bengals rank 23rd in the NFL in pass defense. The Texans can't stop anyone, but have a huge offense. I think this game will be decided by a field goal.

Dave: Cincinnati-As a guy who watched his team drop nearly half the games its played last season by less than a field goal, I can tell you that bad luck during the end of games isn't something that goes away midseason(Conversely, the Bengals have outstanding luck at the end of games, and I don't expect that to change midseason either). Houston's defense isn't as good as many expected and the Bengals, while a team that wins ugly, can move the ball through the air and ground. I like the Bengals by 10.

Cleveland (+14) at Pittsburgh

Gabe: Pittsburgh - I think Cleveland's qb's have completed 4 passes all season. The Steelers are going to have Santonio Holmes totally healthy and may get Polamalu back. I think Pittsburgh dominates on defense and on the ground. Cleveland won't have a chance to score...Pittsburgh by 17.

Dave: Pittsburgh- Cleveland managed 6 points against the Bills last week. THE BILLS! Steelers, needless to say, are a lot better than Buffalo and while this Steelers team hasn't impressed(which makes a two touchdown spread hard to swallow), these Browns have already mailed it in. Steelers by 20.

Baltimore (+3) at Minnesota

Gabe: Minnesota - Last week the Ravens gave up 100 yards to a running back for the first time since Ray Lewis had a clean rap sheet, and that was to Cedric Benson, who hasn't been good since...well, since Ray Lewis had a clean rap sheet. I think they are going to get more of the same against AP. I think Minnesota's defense does enough against the Baltimore running game. Minnesota by a touchdown.

Dave: Baltimore- Yes, the Ravens gave up their first 100 yard rusher in years, but the key stat there is that it had been YEARS. As in, it doesn't happen often. Remember Cedric Benson busted loose on Green Bay a few weeks ago, and they did a nice job of shutting down AP on that Monday nighter, albeit in a losing effort. Look, Brett Favre's Rotting Corpse has to implode eventually and why not do it against the most turnover-happy D in the league. Favre throws three picks, Ravens end the Favre-ESPN lovefest and win by 6.

St. Louis (+9.5) at Jacksonville

Gabe: St. Louis - I can't get a bead on Jacksonville. What I do know about them is their pass defense is the worst in the NFL. I also know that Boller & Avery sounds like a goofy FM drive-time radio show, not a feared QB-to-WR passing combo. But, I think St. Louis has to break out at some point, and, I don't the Jags can beat anyone by 10. Jags by a touchdown.

Dave: Jacksonville-If the Jags were going to win a game by 10 points, wouldn't it be against the team that's been shut out twice in 5 games? Big game for Mike Sims-Walker as the Jags are auctioning him off in a trade and I think Torry Holt sticks it to his old mates as well. Jags by 13.

N.Y. Giants (+3.5) at New Orleans -

Gabe - New York - The Giants have gotten to 5-0 by picking on the worst teams in the league. However, they didn't struggle and none of those games were ever close, except against the Cowboys. Now the G-Men are jumping into the teeth of their schedule. The Saints are coming off of a bye week, they're healthy, and they're at home. I think this game will be high-scoring and the Saints will win by 3.

Dave: New Orleans-Saints are coming off a bye, their D is much improved, and Eli's hurt. I know the Giants are great on the road, but Drew Brees has to have one of those "I'm Drew Motherfuckin' Brees!" games up his sleeve after being ordinary the last few weeks, right? Saints by 7.

Carolina (-3.5) at Tampa Bay

Gabe: Carolina - Easy. Tampa Bay stinks. Carolina has a bad record but they are still really talented on offense. Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith have a huge day. Carolina by double digits.
Dave: Carolina- Panthers by 10. I won't even waste your time with analysis.

Detroit (+14) at Green Bay

Gabe: Detroit - Division games are always hard fought. I think Kevin Smith is going to have a good game and be the difference...the difference between losing by 17 or losing by 10. I think Green Bay wins easy, but only by 10.

Dave: Green Bay-No Calvin Johnson, No Matt Stafford, Packers coming off a bye, at home and they need this one BAD. Time to show the world what you're made of, boys! Packers cover this thing barely against a scrappy Lions team, Pack by 17 and Nick Collins takes one to the house.

Philadelphia (-14) at Oakland

Gabe: Philadelphia - Oakland sucks. JaMarcus Russell completes about 6 passes a game. Philly will dominate this game in every way and they will win by at least 3 TD's.

Dave: Philadelphia - If two years ago, I would have told you Kevin Kolb, a guy whose best games came in a blowout loss and against one of the worst teams in history, would have been the best QB out of the 2007 Draft, how quickly would you drug test me? Eagles have this one over by halftime and Raiders fans try to find arsenic to slip in Al Davis' Milk of Magnesia.

Arizona (+3) at Seattle

Gabe: Arizona - I think this number is inflated because of the way Seattle dismantled Jacksonville last week. Seattle is going to have a let down. Arizona has too many weapons in their passing game. I'll take the Cardinals for the straight up win in my...wait for it...Upset Special!!!

Dave: Seattle- Let me tell you something about me: I'm like Dragnet, baby, I state the facts. Cardinals have one of the worst pass defenses in the country. Matt Hasselbeck has quietly thrown for 7 TDs in the two games he's started, both shutouts(Granted, it was St. Louis and Jacksonville, but whatever.) So while I don't think they shut Arizona out, I think this comes down to the better of two defenses(something I pointed out in my preview on sportstalkbuzz.com....Shameless plug), which is why I like Seattle by a touchdown.

Buffalo (-9.5) at N.Y. Jets

Gabe: Buffalo - I think the Jets are a little desperate right now. They started the season off red hot, but have cooled. I think they will win, but 9.5 is too big of a number. I think the Jets win by a touchdown.

Dave: Jets-9.5 isn't big enough against a team that could only muster a field goal against a Browns team that is tanking for Colt McCoy. Jets defense bullies Trent Edwards, T.O. starts clamoring for a trade by halftime, and Mark Sanchez goes back to get the ladies aroused. Jets by 14.

Tennessee (+9) at New England

Gabe: Tennessee - My reports of New England's greatness have been greatly exaggerated. Tennessee is much better than their 0-5 record shows. I keep waiting for them have a breakout game, and I think they finally will this week. I don't think they will win, but they will keep it close.

Dave: New England-If I would have told you last year that the Titans would go from 13-3 in the regular season to a crushing playoff loss to being back as Super Bowl favorites in '09 to having fans scream for Vince Young by Week 5, how fast would you drug test me? I can't take the Titans. Can't win with them! Can't do it! Pats shake off the rust on O, win by 10.

Chicago (-3.5) at Atlanta

Gabe: Atlanta - This is being touted as a match-up of two hot shot young quarterbacks. I think Atlanta got back on track with a big win last week and will continue that momentum. Atlanta by a touchdown.

Dave: Atlanta-Because, as a Packers fan, I'd like nothing more than a Bears loss, I'll take a Falcons team that just trounced a very good Niners team and the points. Cutler's due for a 4 INT game and while that's probably not coming here, I think we start to see warning signs.

Denver (-3.5) at San Diego

Gabe: San Diego - Denver has shown this year that to win you need to be good...and lucky. How do I say this delicately...I can't...they shot their load last week against New England. San Diego is rested, and at home. I think the Bolts win by a TD.

Dave: Denver-I think if I wrote a list of things I could have done in the two hours I spent writing a blog about how much the Broncos would suck this year, it would be less embarrassing to read than the actual blog about how much the Broncos would suck this year. Phillip Rivers is usually money on Monday nights and that almost gives me pause but the Broncos somehow unearthed a defense and I sincerely think Ladainian Tomlinson died in 2006 and nobody told us.

Week 4 Picks

Gabe and I tied once again last week, as we both went an impressive 12-4. For those scoring at home, that puts me at 34-14 for the season, and Gabe at 31-17. This week, I'll be leading off.

Instead of using the Vegas Hilton odds that Gabe's used the last two weeks, I'm using the Sheridan odds from the USA Today. So here's our week 4 picks....by the spread...because picking straight up is for pansies.

(Gabe Edit: I don't have much time to do this, so there will be little to no commentary from me for this week, just picks.)

Raiders(+8.5) at Texans

Dave: Raiders-I know I said I wasn't co-signing JaMarcus Russell anymore and this pick is sure to come back to bite me in the ass. However, Andre Johnson for whatever reason(read: Nmandi Asomugha) struggles against Oakland. In his last two games against the Raiders, Andre 3000 has three catches for 28 yards. Combined. I'm sure that's going to be the "Neither Here Nor There" Stat of the Week, but with Slaton starting slow, it's hard to like the Texans by 3 field goals if the offense sputters. I like Houston to win....but by a touchdown.

Gabe: Raiders - I like the Texans to win outright, but until they can prove otherwise, 8.5 is too big of a number for the Texans to be favored over anyone.

Titans(-3) at Jaguars

Dave: Titans-The Titans are far better than their 0-3 record would indicate and the Jags' lone win came on a lucky fumble at the goal-line last week after the Texans drove down the field on them for what would have been the winning score. I know I said it last week, but I just can't see Jeff Fisher letting his boys drop another one. Titans bounce back big, win by 10.

Gabe: Titans - The Jags have no pass defense. This game is for the Titans' season. Lose and they are done for the year, already. Old Man Collins will take advantage of this will win by more than a field goal.

Ravens(+2) at Patriots

Dave: Ravens-Vegas still loves Tom Brady and the Pats......I don't. The Ravens have finally put it together on both sides of the ball, whereas New England is swiss-cheese on D and rusty on O. Ravens continue their dominance and topple Brady's Bunch at home.

Gabe: Ravens - Good defense beats good offense. Great defense beats a middling offense trading on big names and history. I can't believe the Raven are the dog in this game. I'll take them for the straight up win.

Cincinatti(-6) at Cleveland

Dave: Cincinatti-I really shouldn't have to explain this one, so I won't. I will say that Common dissing Brady Quinn at The House of Blues WITH QUINN IN THE AUDIENCE.....moves him up a few spots on my list of favorite rappers. Bengals win in a laugher as Browns start dialing up Charlie Weis.

Gabe: Cincy - The Bengals offense is starting to look really good, especially the passing game. The Browns would have trouble beating the Cincinnati Bearcats, much less the Bengals. Bengals win big.

Giants(-8.5) at Chiefs

Dave: Chiefs-Chiefs coach Todd Haley has instilled some spunk into this bunch and they aren't as mediocre as they seem. Remember, they gave a Ravens team that might be the best in the league all they could handle in the opener. The Giants, while dominant and possessing a pass rush that will certainly murder this Chiefs turnstile offensive line, are a bit soft against the run. Does that mean I like the Chiefs to win? Hell No! But KC has enough firepower on O(assuming Dwayne Bowe comes back this week) and they're always tough at Arrowhead, so this should be closer than three field goals. Giants by 7.

Gabe: Giants - The Chiefs are getting better, but are still near the bottom of the league. The Giants have momentum and are still the best road team in the league. Giants by at least 10.

Lions(+10) at Bears

Dave: Lions-Against a Seahawks team that was without 8 starters, the Bears needed an implosion from Seahawk kicker Olindo Mare and a lucky collision between two Seattle defenders on the game-winning score to scrape out a win. The Lions are motivated after their first win since 2007 and, so far this season, they've played teams tough. They won't get win #2, but I like them to lose by less than double digits.

Gabe: Lions - 10 points is too big of a number for the Bears to cover. The Bears win, but not by much.

Bucs(+7.5) at Redskins

Dave: Bucs-Rams. Redskins. JaMarcus Russell. Eric Mangini. Four things I believe in less than religion. Josh Johnson is better than people think and this Skins team plays down to its opponents. Bucs are healthier and will pull off the close upset.

Gabe: Bucs - The Redskins need to be included in any conversation about the worst organizations and teams in the league. The Bucs might not win, but there is no way Washington wins by more than a touchdown.

Seahawks(+10) at Colts

Dave: Colts-Peyton Manning vs. a beat-up secondary? At home? I like those odds. Colts by two touchdowns.

Gabe: Colts - For the same reasons Dave said. Seattle is beat up. Peyton Manning is at home.

Jets(+7) at Saints

Dave: Jets-In an epic clash between a top defense and a top offense, defense always wins out. Even if that defense is short three cornerbacks and is going on the road against the best QB in the league and is starting a rookie QB. Jets by 3.

Gabe: Saints - Drew Brees' comments in the media this week were very quietly confident. He is one of the best pin-point passers in the league and he will use this ability to carve up the Jets defense. I think they shake the Jets early and win big.

Bills(PK) at Dolphins

Dave: Bills-I really don't understand why this is a pick'em. The Dolphins are 0-3 and starting a QB making his first pro start and their facing a defense that was able to slow down Drew Brees' passing attack last week(albeit in a losing effort). Plus, Buffalo gets Marshawn Lynch back and Fred Jackson might be the best running back you've never heard of. Bills by 6.

Gabe: Bills - Fred Jackson in. Chad Pennington out. Chad Henne in. I'll take the Bills.

Rams(+9.5) at Niners

Dave: Niners-Here's how you know your having a bad season.....when you're starting Kyle Boller at QB...and its an UPGRADE! Niners should be 3-0 right now and they won't fall asleep against Nellyville...at least not before being up 21 at halftime. Niners by 17.

Gabe: 49er's - The San Fran D. is going to chew up and spit out Kyle Boller. 'Nuff said.

Cowboys(-3) at Broncos

Dave: Broncos-Any other quarterback leading that last drive this past Monday night, literally ANY OTHER QUARTERBACK, but Jake Delhomme leading that last drive, and the Cowboys lose that game. Unlike Carolina last week, the Broncos have a pulse on defense. Also, unlike last week, the Cowboys' best offensive threat Felix Jones will not be playing. That means Tony Romo tosses a couple picks and the Cowboys lose.......unlike last week. Also, the over/under on Flozell Adams' penalties is at 5.

Gabe: Broncos - They are at home. Romo stinks. That is all.

Chargers(+6.5) at Steelers

Dave: Chargers- The Steelers just don't have an identity with Troy Polamalu out of the lineup and now they'll be without Willie Parker. Also, factor in the added distraction of having your star quarterback hosting Monday Night Raw on the Monday leading up to one of the biggest games of your season(especially when said quarterback now has to worry about a trial for rape allegations in the near future). Chargers get LT back at the right time and Rivers-to-Jackson looks mighty good with no Polamalu over the top.

Gabe: Chargers - 6.5 is too many points. If the Steelers win at all it will be close.

Packers(+3.5) at Vikings

Dave: Vikings- Look, I want to be a homer and take my boys for the fourth straight week, but facts are facts. When your offensive line has given up 12 sacks in three games and your defense has allowed 100 yard rusher in the past 2 weeks and your facing the league's best pass rusher(Jared Allen) and the league's best runner(AP, as if you didn't know), even the most biased of fans have trouble taking those odds. Plus, when the other team has two recovering alcoholics on their roster(Allen and Benedict Favre's Rotting Corpse), fate is on their side. I'd love to see the Pack Attack smash Favre into the ground, but I just can't see it.

Gabe: Packers - Aaron Rodgers seems to be forgotten in all of the Brett Favre drama. As much as Favre wants to stick it to his old team, Rodgers wants to show that the Packers were right in going with him. I'll take the Packers to win in my...wait for it...Upset Special!!