1. This World Series is painful for lots of fans - See: Cleveland Indians fans. The angle of the depressed Mets fan has been beaten to death, but what about those poor Indians fans? Imagine you're an Indians fan who has been in a coma for the last two years. Just before you went under the Indians won the Central Division title. You start coming to this week and from another room you hear snippets of sports broadcast. You hear "Cliff Lee" and "C.C. Sabathia" and "World Series" and start to get really excited. Then you find out they are the game one starters for the Phils and Yanks. Too bad. And then you find out the Indians have fallen so far that they just hired Manny Acta, a guy fired by the Nationals, as their manager. Being a Mets fan ain't so bad now is it. See also - Boston Red Sox fans.
2. Sam Bradford made the right decision - This one is simple. He wasn't going to play at Oklahoma beyond this season. He's right to have the shoulder surgery and prepare for the NFL.
3. Reports of parity in the NFL have been REALLY exaggerated. - See this week's scores. Thirteen games. Eleven decided by ten points or more. Six by at least 28 points. Never has the league gone this late into the season and had three undefeated teams like this year. And the teams at the bottom of the league are historically bad. Speaking of historically bad...
4. The Oakland Raiders quit on the field. - I have never seen a team quit so early in a game. The Jets scored and the Raiders packed it in. It's probably because they have no leadership. JaMarcus Russell sucks. He didn't do anything to help the team on the field on Sunday, and then after the game he didn't take any of the blame. An NFL quarterback has to exude confidence. He has to be able to stand there and with only a look convey that he is the man. He needs to take the field saying I'm Drew "Mutha fuckin'" Brees. That entails taking blame and passing on credit. Russell could take a lesson from guys like Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and even young guys like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez.
5. TCU is going to bust up the BCS - Sorry Boise State. Thanks for playing Cincinnati. It TCU wins out they will beat Utah, currently ranked 16th in the BCS. They have a huge win over BYU. They have also beaten Clemson and UVA, two wins that didn't look like much at the time, but are starting to look much better to the computers.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
My Curse Strikes Again
Mere hours after I predicted Blake Griffin would win this year's NBA Rookie of the Year award he suffered a stress fracture in his knee in the Clippers final pre-season game. So, as Dave said yesterday, he has given the rest of the rookie field a 6-week head start.
This is just another example in a long running, well documented, curse I hand out. Dave can verify that this year I cursed not one, but two, perfect games, in progress, in baseball. Matt Garza had one going in the beginning of the year and right as I said out loud, "Wow, that would be worth at least 200 points for my fantasy team if he pulls this off," - bloop - perfect game gone. Later in the year, Dave texts me and says Andy Pettite is getting nice against the O's. I tell him I am going to change the channel and watch and as soon as I do - bloop - Nick Markakis ends the perfect game and the no-no with one swing.
Hell, in the last two weeks I've taken Tennessee to cover at New England and Oakland to cover against the Jets. Combined score, 97-0.
Without me the Ravens don't lose to an 0-fer Dolphins team two years ago that allows Miami to avoid 0-16. ("There's no way Baltimore loses this Sunday to a team that hasn't won a game all year.)
Without me the Patriots don't win their first Super Bowl against the Rams. ("Sure, I'll take the Rams -14. Who is this Brady kid anyway?)
Without me the Mets don't win the '86 World Series. ("I don't know man, the Red Sox can mash the ball and they have great fielders, especially that first baseman. What's his name? Baker? Butler?)
Without me the Jets don't win Super Bowl III. ("Sure, I'll take the Colts -17.5. Who is this Namath kid anyway?)
Without me Cumberland doesn't lose to Georgia Tech 222-0 in 1916. ("Sure, I'll take Cumberland +77. I know they're basically sending the Kappa Sig fraternity out there, but they can keep it close. How good is Georgia Tech anyway? What's their coach's name? Heisman? Yeah, there's a name you won't be hearing in five years.)
This curse works the other way too. In September of 2002, when online gambling was in its infancy and still legal, I had the chance to lay 7-1 on the Spurs winning the '02-'03 NBA title. Didn't do it. I even had a guy at work say to me, "We should pool some money, get a few hundred bucks and make a bet, just for fun." And I stayed silent.
So, sorry Blake. It wasn't your fault at all. It was mine. It could have been Steph Curry or Johnny Flynn just as easily. I just happened to pick you.
Really though, any pre-season predictions anyone makes should all be parenthetically noted "barring injury."
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
NBA Preview.....Dave Edition
Gabe gave you his homer-tastic NBA predictions yesterday(which you can still read if you aren't too lazy to scroll down). Here are my predictions, with a few of my typical bold statements that I end up eating by midseason.
Eastern Playoffs:
1. Boston- On paper, they're the best team in the NBA, to me. Of course, on paper means about as much as a Larry Johnson apology when it comes to actual results. The fact is, this team is only going as far as Kevin Garnett's knees will take them. 'Sheed is a decent Plan B if KG's knees pull a Shaun Livingston, but you have to wonder about his temperment the entire year. There a few other question marks as well: Ray Allen's slow decline, Rajon Rondo's contract issues, etc. Right now, they have more talent than anyone and, best case scenario, that makes them the team to beat.
2. Cleveland - I want to buy Shaq as LeBron's super sidekick. I really do. The problem is, we've never seen it before. Nearing 40, Shaq is still one of the 10 best centers in the NBA(which has more to say about the dearth of quality bigs than The Diesel's longevity), and that might be just enough for a team that was thisclose to the title last year. That being said, I still think they're a move away. I don't like the distraction of Desperado Delonte West and his guitar case of weapons. I'm not sold on Anthony Parker being another long range threat to complement LeBron. The guy that makes the most sense for them is Bucks shooting guard and hometown hero Michael Redd, who has to be the next big contract headed out of Milwaukee. If Shaq and LeBron can prove to be a cohesive duo the entire season, we could see a '01 Lakers redux, but right now, that's a big if.
3. Orlando - Some experts are going gaga over the acquisition of Vince Carter. I'm not. For one, even with all his talent, Vinsanity has never been able to carry a team deep into the playoffs. He couldn't do it with a game Raptors team. He couldn't do it with Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson in New Jersey, and I'm not sure how much of an upgrade he is over the departed Hedo Turkoglu. Turkoglu's strengths were that he had the killer instinct late in games to take over when nobody else wants to. Carter doesn't have that. Hedo was also a big man who can bring the ball up and create mismatches with his size and shooting ability. Carter, on the other hand, has morphed from the next Michael Jordan to the next Mitch Richmond, as he's become a jump shooter who is scared of contact around the rim. That leaves oft-injured Jameer Nelson as the only guy who can penetrate and get to the line. Also, this needs to be the year Dwight Howard shows a bit more versitility in his offensive moves beyond dunks and some baby hooks.
4. Chicago - The East is going to be won by one of the afforementioned three teams, but of the rest of the bunch, the Baby Bulls have the most potential. Defending ROY Derrick Rose is one step away from being a bonafide star, but he needs to be a more consistant shooter both from the arc and at the line. His ability to make teammates better is a huge benefit to a team that has a number of role players but no real stars(beyond Rose, obviously). Loul Deng looked poised for a breakout before getting hurt and the team is still waiting for the emergence of young bigs Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas. However, this team gave Boston everything it could handle in the playoffs last year, and if they can swing some of these parts for another big name(Carlos Boozer, perhaps), they could make a run at the Top 3 if any of the elite show their age.
5. Miami - For all the talk about The Summer of LeBron, I think Dwayne Wade in his contract year is going to be downright monstrous. I like D-Wade to make a strong run at the MVP(but not winning it, as I'll point out later), but how far this team goes depends on the supporting cast. Jermaine O'Neal is a corpse who will eventually turn into trade bait(Carlos Boozer? Tracy McGrady, maybe?) and nobody knows what the future holds for Michael Beasley, except maybe his dealer. Wade made it clear in the offseason that he wants a championship team around him before he considers re-signing next summer. That might pressure Pat Riley into some moves that make the Heat a win-now threat this season. Wade showed he can carry this team on his back, but how far they can go with him as a one-man army remains to be seen.
6. Washington - The Wizards got themselves a real coach this season, swapping out Nets disciple Eddie Jordan for former Pistons/T-Wolves general Flip Saunders. They also protected themselves against the fragility of Gilbert Arenas' knees by passing up a shot at Ricky Rubio and bringing in combo guard Randy Foye. Mike Miller, who also came to DC in the draft day trade with Minnesota, is a solid sharpshooter off the bench. The big question mark(besides the obvious injury bug that keeps the Big 3 of Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler and Arenas from playing together) is the team's lack of a proven big man. The team made no real push for a solid frontline starter and that may come to haunt them in an Eastern Conference that already has KG and Dwight Howard and is welcoming Shaq back once again.
7. Atlanta - This isn't so much a knock on the Hawks as much as it is me believing that the teams ahead of them either improved during the offseason or will improve over the course of the season through some aggressive expansion. The Hawks, much like the Bulls, have a solid young nucleus with guys like Al Horford and Josh Smith. The problem I have will be how coach Mike Woodson handles all the hotheads under his roof. He routinely got into it with Smith last season and now has notorious free-shooting knucklehead Jamal Crawford to deal with. Plus, there's the issue of trying to find suitable minutes in the backcourt with Crawford, a contract-year Joe Johnson and the recently re-signed Mike Bibby. Those kind of chemistry issues could either make them this year's Nuggets or this year's Clippers.
8. Indiana - In a weak Eastern Conference, it really comes down to preference. I liked the Tyler Hansbrough pick. I think he brings hustle to a team that sorely needed it. I think he's a 10 and 8 guy, and that scoring can go up if the team tries him out a little at the 3 and lets him shoot. I think Danny Granger takes another big step this year after last year's campaign. I just would like some more stability at the point guard position. T.J. Ford seems to always have a career-threatening injury and there's really nobody behind him to get me excited.
Western Playoffs
1. San Antonio - Many believe that the West is a two-team race between the Spurs and Lakers and I can't really disagree(no matter how much I think of the Mavs this season). The trade for Richard Jefferson shows the team has a willingness to run as he's the kind of athletic wing that complements the speed of Tony Parker very well. Some are high on draft steal DeJuan Blair, an undersized forward from Pitt who slipped because concerns over his knees. There's the freshness of the aging but well-rested Tim Duncan. My problem with buying into the Spurs is that you're rolling the dice on a lot of vets with a lot of injury questions. Duncan's 33 and he's not Iron Man anymore. Antonio McDyess is running on half a leg. Manu Ginobli is coming back from ankle issues. Jefferson and Parker have had their nicks in the past and Blair's knee issues are well documented. Like the Celtics, they're rich and deep in talent and if all goes well, there's nothing standing in their way of the Finals, but that's an awfully large gamble with a team that's not too far from the rocking chair.
2. L.A. Lakers - The only thing keeping the Lakers from the top spot is the downgrade from Trevor Ariza to Ron Artest. Artest's much-publicized defense has become more urban legend than vivid reality. What is the truth about Ron-Ron is that he's a Grade A headcase(as proven by Kobe's story of Artest approaching The Black Mamba while he was in the shower after Artest's Rockets were just eliminated to tell Kobe he'd like to come to L.A. An occurence that would have gotten Artest raped had it been a Colorado hotel room instead of Staples Center locker room). The Lakers return many of the stars that made them champs, but there were a couple of cracks in last year's Finals that deserve further inspection coming into this year. One of the biggest intrigues will be Pau Gasol. At times during the playoffs, Gasol seemed irked by his lack of involvement in the offense while Kobe was in Rape Mode last year. Now Gasol has to share the ball not only with Kobe, but with Artest as well. The biggest question mark, of course, will be the easily aggitated Artest's ability to assimilate with The Lake Show. Many(mostly Laker fans) thinks he'll blend in seemlessly. Others(like myself) think he'll be a constant thorn in the Zen Master's surgically repaired side.
3. Dallas - The team made some decent veteran signings in bringing in Shawn Marion and Tim Thomas to add some size to a height-challenged lineup. The team also re-signed future Hall of Famer and coach killer Jason Kidd to run the offense once more. Rick Carlisle is determined to make this team better defensively, while still maintaining some of the run and gun that was a Maverick staple for so long. The team still has Dirk Nowitzki and, while that hasn't meant much in quite some time, he's still one of the 5 or 6 best players in the NBA. It's hard to call the Mavs serious contenders given how heavy the West is at the top, but they have enough seasoned vets to make a run. Marion was on a few Suns teams that had a chance at a ring and both Kidd and Nowitzki have tasted the Finals before, as has Carlisle. If the team's championship pedigree and commitment to defense holds up all season, they could be sexy sleeper come June.
4. Phoenix - The team might have actually upgraded at the center position by dealing Shaq for two guys not even on the roster anymore. Shaq's absence means more playing time for promising young big Robin Lopez. It also means the inside looks will now all be Amare Stoudemire's(assuming he isn't dealt). The backcourt of Jason Richardson and Steve Nash looks solid, if defensively-challenged, while Leandro Barbosa returns as the top option off the bench. Speaking of the reserves, the team did well in bringing back title-hungry good guy Grant Hill and versitile big man Channing Frye. Earl Clark is a rookie from Louisville, who needs some seasoning, but his raw athleticism might make an early contributer in this offense. It's unrealistic to think that this is the year the Suns finally put it all together, but they certianly have enough offense to be among the West's elite.
5. New Orleans - As a Hornets fan, I could easily use this spot to be a bit of a homer, but I'm afraid pessimism has taken over. While point guard Chris Paul is arguably one of the three best players in the league, his talents would be heightened by an athletic wing who can run with him on fast breaks and give and gos(You know, like what J.R. Smith would have been if he wasn't traded or like what Richard Jefferson is for Tony Parker). That backcourt mate isn't on the roster and the team traded away one of its most underrated players when it sent Rasual Butler to the Clippers. Rookie Darren Collison could possibly fill the role as Robin to CP3's Batman, but that might be asking too much. Up front, they return steady big man David West and swapped out oft-injured defensive big man Tyson Chandler for oft-injured defensive big man Emeka Okafor. If Okafor can stay healthy(a big if, since he's already hurt), the Hornets could be every bit as good as many projected last season, but until they find a better equipped sidekick for Paul, they'll have to settle for another almost-there season.
6. Portland - It's easy to look at Portland's young talent and become giddy with excitement, but we've seen young teams like this fold under the pressure of high expectations. For one, we don't know if Greg Oden can handle a full season. Newly signed point guard Andre Miller isn't even the starter and seems to not be too pleased with that fact, which could effect chemistry on a young team that is already causing whispers about quitting on coach Nate McMillan. Brandon Roy is an unquestioned star, but unless Oden shows off the tantalizing talents he flashed at Ohio St., it's hard to get too excited about this team's potential.
7. Denver - I know what you're thinking. How can a team that muscled its way to the conference finals last year be a 7 seed the next year? Well, if you read Bill Simmons' preview(as Gabe pointed out), George Karl's track record in the year-after hasn't been promising. Add that to the fact that this is quite the team of undisciplined knuckleheads from 'Melo down to K-Mart. The Nuggets have a ton of potential and certianly it isn't impossible to make another run like they did last year, but they lost a couple key elements in Dahntey Jones and Linus Kleiza and I don't know if the drafting of Ty Lawson makes up for that. Actually, I do know.....it doesn't.
8. Oklahoma City - What? No Jazz? No Warriors? No Clippers? Nope. I think the Jazz inevitably deal Carlos Boozer and become a rebuilding team around Paul Millsap and Deron Williams. The Warriors will continue to be just a team of promising young players held back by distractions and false expectations so long as they keep Stephen Jackson on the team and continue refusing to package that talent into bringing in win-now stars(like the Celtics did two years ago and like G.S. almost did with the draft day trade for Amare). The Clippers are, well, cursed. That was made evident by the recent Blake Griffin injury and it's hard to co-sign any team run by Mike Dunleavy. Now, as for the Thunder, they have the next big thing in Kevin Durant and they smartly built around Durant with solid young players like sophmore Russell Westbrook, rookie James Harden and forward Jeff Green. That potential, much like the Blazers last year, gives them the edge over the afforementioned three teams and thus, gives them the honor of getting swept by the Spurs in Round 1.
Western Conference Finals: Spurs over Lakers - Basketball isn't football. You waste too much time by trying to be cute and overthink things. The Lakers and Spurs are the only real contenders and I like the Spurs' chemistry over the Lakers' combustible yet uber-talented roster.
Eastern Conference Finals: Cavs over Celtics - Can you really see KG's knees lasting an 82 game season, then going through a playoffs that will see him running up and down with a young, fast, athletic group like either the Heat or Bulls in Round 2 and then having to take on LeBron for a potential 7-game series in the Conference Finals? I just can't him holding up with 1,100 games ALREADY under his belt. As for why I like the Cavs over Orlando, I think the Magic hurt their depth by going all in on the Carter trade and, much like Shaq with Cleveland, I'll believe Carter can be a solid complement when I see it. LeBron is too freakishly talented to not get his in a contract year.
NBA Finals: Cavs over Spurs - Now, the Spurs have more depth, but this pick is based on the belief that the Cavs aren't done adding talent around LeBron. I think they make a move for a Mike Bibby or a Michael Redd or maybe even Carlos Boozer if Shaq falters and become an even better team than many already think they are. Also, while Duncan obviously schools Shaq one last time, I can't find a soul on this Spurs roster that keeps up with a pissed-off LeBron James, do you? Richard Jefferson? Manu? Roger Mason? No, thanks. Cavs in 6 in what will be a 600 times better Finals than the last time we saw these two here.
MVP: LeBron James - It's his contract year and what I believe will be his farewell to Cleveland and Hello to the Clippers(Yes, I know they're cursed but they offer the right elements of solid young supporting cast and cap space). If my math is right, this would be the fourth straight year the MVP went to someone who did not go to college, which has to make David Stern feel great. I just think LeBron, in a contract year, now knows he has to take it up another notch to bring this team where it needs to go....which brings me to.....
Defensive Player of the Year: LeBron James - Did you see the cap King James had in the preseason game against the Mavs coming off the flu? The kid just has an innate ability to dominate on both ends. Now, the last player to win both awards was Hakeem Olajuwon in '93-'94 and before that, Michael Jordan in '87-88. The only real competition for this award is Howard, who could also do the double dip if the Magic play up to their potential.
Rookie of the Year: Stephen Curry, Warriors - Clear favorite Blake Griffin is spotting everyone 20 games while he recovers from a broken knee cap. Assuming Griffin returns on time, he still will need some time to get back into the swing of things. Curry, in Don Nelson's offense, is going to get plenty of opportunities to light up the scoreboard. Add that to the fact that he's a solid passer and is playing in a weak rookie class that got weaker when Griffin went down and there isn't much standing in Steph's way. (Side note: I liked Hansbrough for this award because he's a Shane Battier-type glue guy whose hustle will make him stand out at times, but I changed my mind because I just can't seem to get the image of the inevitable Hansbrough getting Fred Weis-ed by Josh Smith at some point this season and the eventual "Hansbrough's softer than Duncan Hines" comments that will fly and ultimately kill this kid's confidence).
Coach of the Year - Stan Van Gundy - Because he deserves something to go with that sweet 'stache, and we all know you at home could give a fuck about who wins this award.
Eastern Playoffs:
1. Boston- On paper, they're the best team in the NBA, to me. Of course, on paper means about as much as a Larry Johnson apology when it comes to actual results. The fact is, this team is only going as far as Kevin Garnett's knees will take them. 'Sheed is a decent Plan B if KG's knees pull a Shaun Livingston, but you have to wonder about his temperment the entire year. There a few other question marks as well: Ray Allen's slow decline, Rajon Rondo's contract issues, etc. Right now, they have more talent than anyone and, best case scenario, that makes them the team to beat.
2. Cleveland - I want to buy Shaq as LeBron's super sidekick. I really do. The problem is, we've never seen it before. Nearing 40, Shaq is still one of the 10 best centers in the NBA(which has more to say about the dearth of quality bigs than The Diesel's longevity), and that might be just enough for a team that was thisclose to the title last year. That being said, I still think they're a move away. I don't like the distraction of Desperado Delonte West and his guitar case of weapons. I'm not sold on Anthony Parker being another long range threat to complement LeBron. The guy that makes the most sense for them is Bucks shooting guard and hometown hero Michael Redd, who has to be the next big contract headed out of Milwaukee. If Shaq and LeBron can prove to be a cohesive duo the entire season, we could see a '01 Lakers redux, but right now, that's a big if.
3. Orlando - Some experts are going gaga over the acquisition of Vince Carter. I'm not. For one, even with all his talent, Vinsanity has never been able to carry a team deep into the playoffs. He couldn't do it with a game Raptors team. He couldn't do it with Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson in New Jersey, and I'm not sure how much of an upgrade he is over the departed Hedo Turkoglu. Turkoglu's strengths were that he had the killer instinct late in games to take over when nobody else wants to. Carter doesn't have that. Hedo was also a big man who can bring the ball up and create mismatches with his size and shooting ability. Carter, on the other hand, has morphed from the next Michael Jordan to the next Mitch Richmond, as he's become a jump shooter who is scared of contact around the rim. That leaves oft-injured Jameer Nelson as the only guy who can penetrate and get to the line. Also, this needs to be the year Dwight Howard shows a bit more versitility in his offensive moves beyond dunks and some baby hooks.
4. Chicago - The East is going to be won by one of the afforementioned three teams, but of the rest of the bunch, the Baby Bulls have the most potential. Defending ROY Derrick Rose is one step away from being a bonafide star, but he needs to be a more consistant shooter both from the arc and at the line. His ability to make teammates better is a huge benefit to a team that has a number of role players but no real stars(beyond Rose, obviously). Loul Deng looked poised for a breakout before getting hurt and the team is still waiting for the emergence of young bigs Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas. However, this team gave Boston everything it could handle in the playoffs last year, and if they can swing some of these parts for another big name(Carlos Boozer, perhaps), they could make a run at the Top 3 if any of the elite show their age.
5. Miami - For all the talk about The Summer of LeBron, I think Dwayne Wade in his contract year is going to be downright monstrous. I like D-Wade to make a strong run at the MVP(but not winning it, as I'll point out later), but how far this team goes depends on the supporting cast. Jermaine O'Neal is a corpse who will eventually turn into trade bait(Carlos Boozer? Tracy McGrady, maybe?) and nobody knows what the future holds for Michael Beasley, except maybe his dealer. Wade made it clear in the offseason that he wants a championship team around him before he considers re-signing next summer. That might pressure Pat Riley into some moves that make the Heat a win-now threat this season. Wade showed he can carry this team on his back, but how far they can go with him as a one-man army remains to be seen.
6. Washington - The Wizards got themselves a real coach this season, swapping out Nets disciple Eddie Jordan for former Pistons/T-Wolves general Flip Saunders. They also protected themselves against the fragility of Gilbert Arenas' knees by passing up a shot at Ricky Rubio and bringing in combo guard Randy Foye. Mike Miller, who also came to DC in the draft day trade with Minnesota, is a solid sharpshooter off the bench. The big question mark(besides the obvious injury bug that keeps the Big 3 of Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler and Arenas from playing together) is the team's lack of a proven big man. The team made no real push for a solid frontline starter and that may come to haunt them in an Eastern Conference that already has KG and Dwight Howard and is welcoming Shaq back once again.
7. Atlanta - This isn't so much a knock on the Hawks as much as it is me believing that the teams ahead of them either improved during the offseason or will improve over the course of the season through some aggressive expansion. The Hawks, much like the Bulls, have a solid young nucleus with guys like Al Horford and Josh Smith. The problem I have will be how coach Mike Woodson handles all the hotheads under his roof. He routinely got into it with Smith last season and now has notorious free-shooting knucklehead Jamal Crawford to deal with. Plus, there's the issue of trying to find suitable minutes in the backcourt with Crawford, a contract-year Joe Johnson and the recently re-signed Mike Bibby. Those kind of chemistry issues could either make them this year's Nuggets or this year's Clippers.
8. Indiana - In a weak Eastern Conference, it really comes down to preference. I liked the Tyler Hansbrough pick. I think he brings hustle to a team that sorely needed it. I think he's a 10 and 8 guy, and that scoring can go up if the team tries him out a little at the 3 and lets him shoot. I think Danny Granger takes another big step this year after last year's campaign. I just would like some more stability at the point guard position. T.J. Ford seems to always have a career-threatening injury and there's really nobody behind him to get me excited.
Western Playoffs
1. San Antonio - Many believe that the West is a two-team race between the Spurs and Lakers and I can't really disagree(no matter how much I think of the Mavs this season). The trade for Richard Jefferson shows the team has a willingness to run as he's the kind of athletic wing that complements the speed of Tony Parker very well. Some are high on draft steal DeJuan Blair, an undersized forward from Pitt who slipped because concerns over his knees. There's the freshness of the aging but well-rested Tim Duncan. My problem with buying into the Spurs is that you're rolling the dice on a lot of vets with a lot of injury questions. Duncan's 33 and he's not Iron Man anymore. Antonio McDyess is running on half a leg. Manu Ginobli is coming back from ankle issues. Jefferson and Parker have had their nicks in the past and Blair's knee issues are well documented. Like the Celtics, they're rich and deep in talent and if all goes well, there's nothing standing in their way of the Finals, but that's an awfully large gamble with a team that's not too far from the rocking chair.
2. L.A. Lakers - The only thing keeping the Lakers from the top spot is the downgrade from Trevor Ariza to Ron Artest. Artest's much-publicized defense has become more urban legend than vivid reality. What is the truth about Ron-Ron is that he's a Grade A headcase(as proven by Kobe's story of Artest approaching The Black Mamba while he was in the shower after Artest's Rockets were just eliminated to tell Kobe he'd like to come to L.A. An occurence that would have gotten Artest raped had it been a Colorado hotel room instead of Staples Center locker room). The Lakers return many of the stars that made them champs, but there were a couple of cracks in last year's Finals that deserve further inspection coming into this year. One of the biggest intrigues will be Pau Gasol. At times during the playoffs, Gasol seemed irked by his lack of involvement in the offense while Kobe was in Rape Mode last year. Now Gasol has to share the ball not only with Kobe, but with Artest as well. The biggest question mark, of course, will be the easily aggitated Artest's ability to assimilate with The Lake Show. Many(mostly Laker fans) thinks he'll blend in seemlessly. Others(like myself) think he'll be a constant thorn in the Zen Master's surgically repaired side.
3. Dallas - The team made some decent veteran signings in bringing in Shawn Marion and Tim Thomas to add some size to a height-challenged lineup. The team also re-signed future Hall of Famer and coach killer Jason Kidd to run the offense once more. Rick Carlisle is determined to make this team better defensively, while still maintaining some of the run and gun that was a Maverick staple for so long. The team still has Dirk Nowitzki and, while that hasn't meant much in quite some time, he's still one of the 5 or 6 best players in the NBA. It's hard to call the Mavs serious contenders given how heavy the West is at the top, but they have enough seasoned vets to make a run. Marion was on a few Suns teams that had a chance at a ring and both Kidd and Nowitzki have tasted the Finals before, as has Carlisle. If the team's championship pedigree and commitment to defense holds up all season, they could be sexy sleeper come June.
4. Phoenix - The team might have actually upgraded at the center position by dealing Shaq for two guys not even on the roster anymore. Shaq's absence means more playing time for promising young big Robin Lopez. It also means the inside looks will now all be Amare Stoudemire's(assuming he isn't dealt). The backcourt of Jason Richardson and Steve Nash looks solid, if defensively-challenged, while Leandro Barbosa returns as the top option off the bench. Speaking of the reserves, the team did well in bringing back title-hungry good guy Grant Hill and versitile big man Channing Frye. Earl Clark is a rookie from Louisville, who needs some seasoning, but his raw athleticism might make an early contributer in this offense. It's unrealistic to think that this is the year the Suns finally put it all together, but they certianly have enough offense to be among the West's elite.
5. New Orleans - As a Hornets fan, I could easily use this spot to be a bit of a homer, but I'm afraid pessimism has taken over. While point guard Chris Paul is arguably one of the three best players in the league, his talents would be heightened by an athletic wing who can run with him on fast breaks and give and gos(You know, like what J.R. Smith would have been if he wasn't traded or like what Richard Jefferson is for Tony Parker). That backcourt mate isn't on the roster and the team traded away one of its most underrated players when it sent Rasual Butler to the Clippers. Rookie Darren Collison could possibly fill the role as Robin to CP3's Batman, but that might be asking too much. Up front, they return steady big man David West and swapped out oft-injured defensive big man Tyson Chandler for oft-injured defensive big man Emeka Okafor. If Okafor can stay healthy(a big if, since he's already hurt), the Hornets could be every bit as good as many projected last season, but until they find a better equipped sidekick for Paul, they'll have to settle for another almost-there season.
6. Portland - It's easy to look at Portland's young talent and become giddy with excitement, but we've seen young teams like this fold under the pressure of high expectations. For one, we don't know if Greg Oden can handle a full season. Newly signed point guard Andre Miller isn't even the starter and seems to not be too pleased with that fact, which could effect chemistry on a young team that is already causing whispers about quitting on coach Nate McMillan. Brandon Roy is an unquestioned star, but unless Oden shows off the tantalizing talents he flashed at Ohio St., it's hard to get too excited about this team's potential.
7. Denver - I know what you're thinking. How can a team that muscled its way to the conference finals last year be a 7 seed the next year? Well, if you read Bill Simmons' preview(as Gabe pointed out), George Karl's track record in the year-after hasn't been promising. Add that to the fact that this is quite the team of undisciplined knuckleheads from 'Melo down to K-Mart. The Nuggets have a ton of potential and certianly it isn't impossible to make another run like they did last year, but they lost a couple key elements in Dahntey Jones and Linus Kleiza and I don't know if the drafting of Ty Lawson makes up for that. Actually, I do know.....it doesn't.
8. Oklahoma City - What? No Jazz? No Warriors? No Clippers? Nope. I think the Jazz inevitably deal Carlos Boozer and become a rebuilding team around Paul Millsap and Deron Williams. The Warriors will continue to be just a team of promising young players held back by distractions and false expectations so long as they keep Stephen Jackson on the team and continue refusing to package that talent into bringing in win-now stars(like the Celtics did two years ago and like G.S. almost did with the draft day trade for Amare). The Clippers are, well, cursed. That was made evident by the recent Blake Griffin injury and it's hard to co-sign any team run by Mike Dunleavy. Now, as for the Thunder, they have the next big thing in Kevin Durant and they smartly built around Durant with solid young players like sophmore Russell Westbrook, rookie James Harden and forward Jeff Green. That potential, much like the Blazers last year, gives them the edge over the afforementioned three teams and thus, gives them the honor of getting swept by the Spurs in Round 1.
Western Conference Finals: Spurs over Lakers - Basketball isn't football. You waste too much time by trying to be cute and overthink things. The Lakers and Spurs are the only real contenders and I like the Spurs' chemistry over the Lakers' combustible yet uber-talented roster.
Eastern Conference Finals: Cavs over Celtics - Can you really see KG's knees lasting an 82 game season, then going through a playoffs that will see him running up and down with a young, fast, athletic group like either the Heat or Bulls in Round 2 and then having to take on LeBron for a potential 7-game series in the Conference Finals? I just can't him holding up with 1,100 games ALREADY under his belt. As for why I like the Cavs over Orlando, I think the Magic hurt their depth by going all in on the Carter trade and, much like Shaq with Cleveland, I'll believe Carter can be a solid complement when I see it. LeBron is too freakishly talented to not get his in a contract year.
NBA Finals: Cavs over Spurs - Now, the Spurs have more depth, but this pick is based on the belief that the Cavs aren't done adding talent around LeBron. I think they make a move for a Mike Bibby or a Michael Redd or maybe even Carlos Boozer if Shaq falters and become an even better team than many already think they are. Also, while Duncan obviously schools Shaq one last time, I can't find a soul on this Spurs roster that keeps up with a pissed-off LeBron James, do you? Richard Jefferson? Manu? Roger Mason? No, thanks. Cavs in 6 in what will be a 600 times better Finals than the last time we saw these two here.
MVP: LeBron James - It's his contract year and what I believe will be his farewell to Cleveland and Hello to the Clippers(Yes, I know they're cursed but they offer the right elements of solid young supporting cast and cap space). If my math is right, this would be the fourth straight year the MVP went to someone who did not go to college, which has to make David Stern feel great. I just think LeBron, in a contract year, now knows he has to take it up another notch to bring this team where it needs to go....which brings me to.....
Defensive Player of the Year: LeBron James - Did you see the cap King James had in the preseason game against the Mavs coming off the flu? The kid just has an innate ability to dominate on both ends. Now, the last player to win both awards was Hakeem Olajuwon in '93-'94 and before that, Michael Jordan in '87-88. The only real competition for this award is Howard, who could also do the double dip if the Magic play up to their potential.
Rookie of the Year: Stephen Curry, Warriors - Clear favorite Blake Griffin is spotting everyone 20 games while he recovers from a broken knee cap. Assuming Griffin returns on time, he still will need some time to get back into the swing of things. Curry, in Don Nelson's offense, is going to get plenty of opportunities to light up the scoreboard. Add that to the fact that he's a solid passer and is playing in a weak rookie class that got weaker when Griffin went down and there isn't much standing in Steph's way. (Side note: I liked Hansbrough for this award because he's a Shane Battier-type glue guy whose hustle will make him stand out at times, but I changed my mind because I just can't seem to get the image of the inevitable Hansbrough getting Fred Weis-ed by Josh Smith at some point this season and the eventual "Hansbrough's softer than Duncan Hines" comments that will fly and ultimately kill this kid's confidence).
Coach of the Year - Stan Van Gundy - Because he deserves something to go with that sweet 'stache, and we all know you at home could give a fuck about who wins this award.
Monday, October 26, 2009
NBA Pre-season Picks by Gabe
Let me preface this NBA bit with a few things you need to know about me and my relationship with the NBA.
NBA basketball is my 2nd favorite sport, behind (way behind) NFL football. I am a die-hard San Antonio Spurs fan and have been since about 1989, the year David Robinson started playing.
All of that being said, I don't start paying much attention to the NBA until the Spurs make their East Coast swing and I have my annual "Does my schedule allow me to go to one of these games?" conversation with myself. This year that is coming early (January) and I actually might make to the Spurs/Wizards game. Two years ago I was in the building for Spurs-Celtics in Boston and had the worst live sporting experience of my life.
(Damn Boston fans. Paul Pierce went off for 35 points and they won the game. To make it worse, fucking Kevin Youkilis was sitting courtside. So on top of all of the "Is that the best the West has gawt?" taunts they yelled, I had to hear "Yoooouuuuuk!" all damn game.)
(Please don't take that last paragraph the wrong way Boston. I love you, but just you. Your fans can suck it.)
But I digress. As I said, I don't pay much attention to the NBA until about January, and I really don't focus on it until after the Super Bowl.
I also don't fully understand the intricacies and strategies of the game. Hell, I don't really know all of the rules. And I watch the game like a football fan, meaning I live and die on every trip down the court. Watching a Spurs playoff game really isn't good for my blood pressure.
Keep all of that in mind as I give you my football-fan, Spurs-homer, doesn't really know the game, NBA pre-season predictions.
Here is what I do know. In the NBA 16 out of 30 teams make the playoffs, 8 per conference. Of those 8 there are usually 2 or 3 legit title contenders, 3 or 4 nice teams who managed to win between 48 and 52 games, and 1 or 2 teams who are pissed that they won just enough to keep them out of the lottery.
So let's focus on the top of each conference. I am going to ignore the four also-rans in each conference and focus on the best. I'm going to assume these teams all win one playoff round. Here is how I see it shaking it out.
The best in the West - L.A. Lakers, San Antonio Spurs, Denver Nuggets, Portland Trailblazers.
The best in the East - Boston Celtics, Orlando Magic, Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks.
Here is what I think will happen with these teams in the playoffs
West Round 2
Los Angeles over Portland - The Trailblazers are young and talented. If Andre Miller embraces his new found sixth-man role then I think they can be dangerous. The Lakers' best off-season move was keeping Lamar Odom, and that ain't saying much. I still think the Lakers have enough to win this series though.
San Antonio over Denver - This might just be the homer in me talking, but I love the Spurs off-season moves. The additions of Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess, and what could be the steal of the draft, DeJuan Blair have tremendously improved an already good team. This Spurs team is going to be exciting, for the first time in a long time, maybe ever. Denver is very talented and has had success in the playoffs, but as Bill Simmons wrote in his NBA preview, George Karl teams always decline after he has success. I think the Nuggets will be pretty good, but the Spurs are hungry.
East Round 2
Atlanta over Boston - A few years ago I thought Joe Johnson was crazy to leave Phoenix, where he was a role player, to go to Atlanta and be the leader of the team. I didn't think he had it in him. Well, three All-Star appearances, a 47 win season, and seven game series with the Celtics later, he has proven me wrong. The Hawks got Jamal Crawford for two pairs of gym shorts and some tube socks, and add him to a young roster that puts up points. The Celtics added Rasheed Wallace and appear to be healthy, but I don't think they are going to make it into the playoffs that way. I think Boston will win the East on muscle memory, but it will be hard on them.
Orlando over Cleveland - Here's the deal - Orlando are the defending Eastern Conference Champs, and they are basically the same team. The Cavs added and old fat Shaq who doesn't like playing second banana. I think he and Lebron are going to clash more than they gel. I think Orlando will get the better of them again.
Western Conference Finals
Spurs over Lakers - Cool it with the Homer chants. The Spurs clearly made the best off-season moves. They are hungry and are running out of time to win another title with Timmy. Ginobili is healthy and with him, Parker, and Jefferson they are going to run. These ain't your daddy's Spurs. The Lakers are great. But they have had role players and bench guys over-produce. I think Lamar is going to get happy and fat with his new contract. Ron Artest is crazy and I think Phil Jackson can temper that only so much. I don't think Kobe is going to be able to put the team on his back this year like last year.
Eastern Conference Finals
Magic over Hawks - The Hawks will be a nice Cinderella story until this round. Orlando has been there before. They know how to win. Atlanta will cut their teeth this year and learn, but just won't have enough to pull it off. Besides, I don't think Atlanta has an answer for Dwight Howard.
NBA Finals
Spurs over Magic - The Spurs are too talented and too motivated this year. That's it. That's the list. The only thing I am not looking forward to is how many times I'll have to hear Stephen A. Smith say "Jameah" Nelson.
Superlatives:
Rookie of the Year - Blake Griffin, easy.
MVP - Dwight Howard.
Coach of the Year - Mike Woodson, Atlanta.
NBA basketball is my 2nd favorite sport, behind (way behind) NFL football. I am a die-hard San Antonio Spurs fan and have been since about 1989, the year David Robinson started playing.
All of that being said, I don't start paying much attention to the NBA until the Spurs make their East Coast swing and I have my annual "Does my schedule allow me to go to one of these games?" conversation with myself. This year that is coming early (January) and I actually might make to the Spurs/Wizards game. Two years ago I was in the building for Spurs-Celtics in Boston and had the worst live sporting experience of my life.
(Damn Boston fans. Paul Pierce went off for 35 points and they won the game. To make it worse, fucking Kevin Youkilis was sitting courtside. So on top of all of the "Is that the best the West has gawt?" taunts they yelled, I had to hear "Yoooouuuuuk!" all damn game.)
(Please don't take that last paragraph the wrong way Boston. I love you, but just you. Your fans can suck it.)
But I digress. As I said, I don't pay much attention to the NBA until about January, and I really don't focus on it until after the Super Bowl.
I also don't fully understand the intricacies and strategies of the game. Hell, I don't really know all of the rules. And I watch the game like a football fan, meaning I live and die on every trip down the court. Watching a Spurs playoff game really isn't good for my blood pressure.
Keep all of that in mind as I give you my football-fan, Spurs-homer, doesn't really know the game, NBA pre-season predictions.
Here is what I do know. In the NBA 16 out of 30 teams make the playoffs, 8 per conference. Of those 8 there are usually 2 or 3 legit title contenders, 3 or 4 nice teams who managed to win between 48 and 52 games, and 1 or 2 teams who are pissed that they won just enough to keep them out of the lottery.
So let's focus on the top of each conference. I am going to ignore the four also-rans in each conference and focus on the best. I'm going to assume these teams all win one playoff round. Here is how I see it shaking it out.
The best in the West - L.A. Lakers, San Antonio Spurs, Denver Nuggets, Portland Trailblazers.
The best in the East - Boston Celtics, Orlando Magic, Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks.
Here is what I think will happen with these teams in the playoffs
West Round 2
Los Angeles over Portland - The Trailblazers are young and talented. If Andre Miller embraces his new found sixth-man role then I think they can be dangerous. The Lakers' best off-season move was keeping Lamar Odom, and that ain't saying much. I still think the Lakers have enough to win this series though.
San Antonio over Denver - This might just be the homer in me talking, but I love the Spurs off-season moves. The additions of Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess, and what could be the steal of the draft, DeJuan Blair have tremendously improved an already good team. This Spurs team is going to be exciting, for the first time in a long time, maybe ever. Denver is very talented and has had success in the playoffs, but as Bill Simmons wrote in his NBA preview, George Karl teams always decline after he has success. I think the Nuggets will be pretty good, but the Spurs are hungry.
East Round 2
Atlanta over Boston - A few years ago I thought Joe Johnson was crazy to leave Phoenix, where he was a role player, to go to Atlanta and be the leader of the team. I didn't think he had it in him. Well, three All-Star appearances, a 47 win season, and seven game series with the Celtics later, he has proven me wrong. The Hawks got Jamal Crawford for two pairs of gym shorts and some tube socks, and add him to a young roster that puts up points. The Celtics added Rasheed Wallace and appear to be healthy, but I don't think they are going to make it into the playoffs that way. I think Boston will win the East on muscle memory, but it will be hard on them.
Orlando over Cleveland - Here's the deal - Orlando are the defending Eastern Conference Champs, and they are basically the same team. The Cavs added and old fat Shaq who doesn't like playing second banana. I think he and Lebron are going to clash more than they gel. I think Orlando will get the better of them again.
Western Conference Finals
Spurs over Lakers - Cool it with the Homer chants. The Spurs clearly made the best off-season moves. They are hungry and are running out of time to win another title with Timmy. Ginobili is healthy and with him, Parker, and Jefferson they are going to run. These ain't your daddy's Spurs. The Lakers are great. But they have had role players and bench guys over-produce. I think Lamar is going to get happy and fat with his new contract. Ron Artest is crazy and I think Phil Jackson can temper that only so much. I don't think Kobe is going to be able to put the team on his back this year like last year.
Eastern Conference Finals
Magic over Hawks - The Hawks will be a nice Cinderella story until this round. Orlando has been there before. They know how to win. Atlanta will cut their teeth this year and learn, but just won't have enough to pull it off. Besides, I don't think Atlanta has an answer for Dwight Howard.
NBA Finals
Spurs over Magic - The Spurs are too talented and too motivated this year. That's it. That's the list. The only thing I am not looking forward to is how many times I'll have to hear Stephen A. Smith say "Jameah" Nelson.
Superlatives:
Rookie of the Year - Blake Griffin, easy.
MVP - Dwight Howard.
Coach of the Year - Mike Woodson, Atlanta.
Cut His Mic Off Award # 5
"My father got more credentials than most of these pro coaches....Google my father!!!....My father played for the coach from 'remember the titans'. Our coach played golf. My father played for the redskins briefley. Our coach. Nuthn."
"I'm not talking til Thursday. Get your faggot asses out of here."
I must confess, I've been waiting for months to bring the Cut His Mic Off Award back out again, so I'm glad that washed up Kansas City Chiefs running back Larry Johnson provided enough moronic musings to help accomplish this goal. First, let me address the latter comment. Much like Hawaii coach Greg McMackin(our last Mic Cut recipient), anytime you use the word "faggot" with the media present, you're pretty much asking for a shit storm of epic proportions. This holds especially true for a man like Larry Johnson, who spent the last few years facing questions about his alleged abusive run-ins with various members of the opposite sex. So it's a bit humorous that a man who gets his jollies by putting his hands on women would question SOMEONE ELSE'S masculinity. That being said, the quote was believed to be mumbled under LJ's breath(which, granted, doesn't excuse it) and there is no audio of the comment as of yet(though word around town is it's coming). For now, we'll just take it as just an ironic appetizer to what was a main course of ignorant bullshit spewing from the mouth of a former star running back who may or may not have died three years ago.
...
That brings me to Johnson's first comment. Taking LJ's advice, I searched Larry's pops(Larry Johnson Sr.), who is the defensive line coach for Penn St. University(which is the younger Johnson's alma mater, for those who don't know).
...
As far as Larry Sr's credentials, he's been the DL coach for the Nittany Lions since 2000. The most notable linemen to enter the NFL under Papa LJ's reign? Former #1 overall pick and draft bust Courtney Brown, fellow first round busts Jimmy Kennedy and Michael Haynes as well as current Bills rookie Aaron Maybin(who isn't exactly setting the world on fire in his first season). Also, Penn St. hasn't exactly been racking up the BCS championships this decade. Their most recent resurgence was quelled by a clearly superior Iowa team that seems poised to take the Big Ten.
...
Then, there's Haley's credentials. Haley's been an assistant since 1995, starting with the Jets as a wide receivers coach where his tutelage led to Keyshawn Johnson's first Pro Bowl season. In 2001 in the same position with the Bears, he breathed life into the career of Marty Booker and helped him get to the Pro Bowl as well. From 2004 to 2006, he was the passing game coordinator and receivers coach for Dallas Cowboys team that was leading an aerial assault thanks to an upstart QB named Tony Romo and a couple receivers you may have heard of in Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens. Most recently(and perhaps most notably), he spent last season as the orchestrator of an Arizona offense that carried the Cardinals to the Super Bowl. Not too shabby, if you ask me. As for LJ Jr. and Sr.? Hardly headed to Canton anytime soon.
...
Speaking of pro careers, Yes, Great Grandmama did play in the pros with the Washington Redskins. For one season. For those scoring at home, that's a shorter career than Charles Rogers. As for Haley? LJ's right, he never played a down in the pros. You know else didn't? Bill Belichick, who has 3 Super Bowl rings in 4 Super Bowl appearances and, even if he was found to be the leader of the Ku Klux Klan, would still be heading to the Hall of Fame well before any member of the Johnson family. Another notable coach who never sniffed the pros as a player? Current Broncos wunderkind Josh McDaniels, who is only 6-0 in his first year as head coach with Denver.
...
Want a list of some guys who were players and went on to be coaches? How about LJ's old buddy, Herm Edwards, who helped cast the death knell on LJ's career by riding him harder than Secretariat? You can currently find him on ESPN as an analyst after he stunk up both New York as coach of the Jets and Kansas City as coach of the Chiefs. Last I checked, LJ wasn't exactly best buds with Herm either. How about current Redskins coach Jim Zorn, who was great quarterback with the Seahawks back in the day? How's he doing as a head coach? Last I looked, Redskins Nation are willing to drive Zorn to the airport if it meant he'll never step foot in the Nation's capital.
...
Of course, Larry, it's understandable to be frustrated after a curb-stomping like the one the Chargers gave you yesterday, but if you're going to open your mouth(or in this case, tweet), perhaps you should at least be, oh I don't know, PRODUCTIVE! Through 7 games so far this season, Larry Johnson has the fourth most carries of anyone in the league with 132. He currently has 358 yards, good for 19th in the NFL. He is averaging 2.7 yards per carry. He's also averaging 51 yards per game and hasn't sniffed the end zone once this season. Now, if this recent outbursts of ignorance(including a childish back and forth with a fan on Twitter in which LJ maturely called the man a fag and boasted about how he is "richer" than his blue collar counterpart) is public outcry for LJ to get on the first thing smoking out of KC, then perhaps he'll get his wish. My question is, where exactly does he think he's going afterward? You think teams are lined up for a childish, immature brat who is unable to keep his hands to himself when it comes to the ladies, and is averaging less yards per carry than Jerome Harrison?
...
A piece of advice, Mr. Johnson, before you try to pull a play out of the Jay Cutler playbook on how to whine your way out of town, perhaps you should talk to Duece McAllister about what the job market is like for slow-footed running backs who are on the wrong side of 30?
...
Until then, consider your mic cut off.
Saturday, October 24, 2009
NFL Picks, Week 7
Week 6 was a crazy week for our picks. Overall, Dave was 8-6 and I was 7-7. We each missed the Pittsburgh line by a point. The Minnesota/Baltimore line was 3.5 and the game was decided by 2 points. Dave was on the right side of that one; I was on the wrong side. I nailed the Atlanta game exactly. Oh, and I took Tennessee to beat the spread against New England. That's the worst prediction I've made since I took the British and gave the points in the American Revolution.
Anyway, Dave leads for the season, 56-34 to 53-37.
On to Week 7...
San Diego (-5) at Kansas City
Gabe: Kansas City - San Diego is not that good. Kansas City is not as bad as their record indicates. This line is too big. I think San Diego wins by a field goal.
Dave: Kansas City - The Chiefs have proven to be scrappier than Doug Christie's wife in the tunnel at Arco Arena so far this season. The Chargers have seem to give up on coach Norv Turner and, while the Chiefs aren't the team they once were, it's still tough to go into Arrowhead and get a W. Chiefs win it outright by a field goal.
Indianapolis (-13.5) at St. Louis
Gabe: Indianapolis - St. Louis is historically bad. Indy is not going to let this game get close. Peyton Manning and his laser rocket arm will have Indy up big early and they stay ahead in one of the least competitive games of the season.
Dave: Indianapolis - The Colts could start Johnny Unitas and still win this game. Look, Peyton Manning's playing like a guy who wants to take the single season TD record back from Tom Brady and against a Rams defense that's softer than cotton, I think he goes for 6 scores in this one. Colts have this one early and Rams coach Steve Spagnoulo flirts with bringing in Albert Pujols to play QB by halftime.
Chicago (pk) at Cincinnati
Gabe: Cincinnati - I think Cincy should be favored in this game. They are at home. Aside from the Houston game they have been playing very well. Chicago has been up and down all year. I think Cincy wins.
Dave: Chicago - Disgruntled players or coaches facing their former team are 3-0 so far this season(Benedict Favre vs. Green Bay, Torry Holt vs. Nellyville, Josh McDaniels vs. The Boston Hoodie), but I think Bengals RB Cedric Benson angered the Karma Gods by running his mouth this week about how the Bears blackballed him upon his release a year ago. Not only that, but the Bengals showed last week that they don't have much pass rush with DE Antwan Odom done for the year and not having a pass rush against Jay Cutler and the Chicago Speed Patrol(Hester, Knox, Bennett....I'm just full of nicknames today!) tends to do more harm than good. Bears pull off the road win and stay in the hunt in the North.
Green Bay (-8.5) at Cleveland
Gabe: Green Bay - Green Bay better win this game by 10 or more. Cleveland is awful. Their best player is now a New York Jet. Green Bay should roll.
Dave: Green Bay - Same rules apply this week as they did last week for the Pack. Significantly inferior opponent, this time made more inferior by half the team contracting swine flu, in a game the Packers need to stay afloat in the NFC North. Packers flirt with back-to-back shutouts, Clay Matthews makes another move towards Defensive ROY, and Rodgers only gets sacked twice. Packers by 20.
Minnesota (+6) at Pittsburgh
Gabe: Minnesota - I think this game is going to be close either direction. I think Pittsburgh is the better team, but the Vikings always keep it close. I think Pittsburgh wins, but by less than six.
Dave: Pittsburgh - Call it bitterness if you want but I'm buying the Vikings more as a team of fortune than a team of skill. They nearly blew a 13 point lead to Green Bay a few weeks ago, despite notching nearly 100 sacks and forcing two turnovers(and Benedict Favre suddenly finding The Fountian of Juice, er, Youth). They beat San Fran on a lucky fling into the end zone. They escaped Baltimore last week thanks to a shanked field goal in the closing seconds after the Ravens were down 14 in the 4th quarter. Eventually, that good fortune has to wear off. They'll be playing without top corner Antione Winfield against a Steelers' O that can beat through the air or on the ground(Also, newsflash to all the experts slurping the Vikings D, you can move the ball on these guys. Aaron Rodgers nearly went for 400 yards on them, despite only have 3 offensive linemen!) Steelers win this one big.
New England (-14.5) vs. Tampa Bay (in London)
Gabe: New England - Tampa Bay sucks anywhere on U.S. soil. Now they have to travel across the pond to England. Forget it. New England flirts with the shutout again and wins huge.
Dave: New England - Here's a better bet to place.....imagine the spread of the Pats facing the Tampa Bay Lightning or the Tampa Bay Rays or, shit, even the University of Central Florida....I'd say all those teams make it closer than the Bucs will against Brady's Bunch in The House That Ringo Built. Patriots don't get the shutout but win this one going away.
San Francisco (+3) at Houston
Gabe: Houston - Houston's problem at the beginning of the year was run defense. Well, over the last three games they have given up only 45 yards per game on the ground, second best in the league during that span. Frank Gore will test them, but I don't think he will be enough. The 49ers are 20th in the league in pass defense. Houston's pass offense ranks 3rd in the NFL. (If you read the brilliance that is the Houston Texans page at www.sportstalkbuzz.com you'd know all of this already.) This is a classic case of weakness vs. strength. Houston wins by 10.
Dave: San Francisco - It took all of two weeks for the Niners to submissively bend over to Michael Crabtree by giving him the starting job after he sat and pouted for months over his contract. Certainly, that could anger the Karma Gods, but the Texans have a tendency to shit the bed in games they should win(the Jags game comes to mind) and the Niners need this one pretty bad to hold on to their first place tie in the West. Niners are coming off a bye and I think The Inconvenient Truth puts a dent in the #2 run defense. Niners pull off the road win by 6.
N.Y. Jets (-6) at Oakland
Gabe: Oakland - Last week the Raiders came together and beat the Eagles. That was no fluke. Sure, they were helped by Andy Reid's run, run, run, punt offense, but their defense played very well. The Jets started hot but are now coming back to earth. I think the Jets' slide continues and the Raiders, despite being an organizational disaster, build on last week and get the outright win in my...wait for it...Upset Special!!!
Dave: Jets - I told you, I'm not cosigning JaMarcus Russell. Not even after he showed a pulse in a big upset of the Eagles last week. Not even after Big Fat Kris Jenkins was carted off and put on IR, killing the Jets' run defense. Not after The Sanchize morphed into John David Booty against the Bills. The loss of Jenkins is going to hurt the Jets at some point, but guess what, the Raiders can't run the ball. If Darren McFadden was a go in this one, I'd bite the bullet and take Dead Al's boys, but he's not and I think Mark Sanchez knows the backlash from the NY media if he loses here.
Buffalo (+7) at Carolina
Gabe: Buffalo - Ugh. I wouldn't watch this game if it were being played in my backyard. I'm taking Buffalo simply because seven is too many points either way. Whoever wins will do so by 3.
Dave: Buffalo - I have to agree with Gabe on this one, 7 points is too much for a team that is absolutely terrified to throw the ball. Panthers get their Clipse on and grind it out with D-Will and The Daily Show and Steve Smith starts punching out teammates by halftime. Panthers by 3.
New Orleans (-6) at Miami
Gabe: New Orleans - No one can stop New Orleans and Drew "MFin" Brees right now. Miami's defense is not that good and the Saints defense is much better than it has been lately. The Saints continue to roll and win by at least a touchdown.
Dave: New Orleans - This has all the makings of a trap game. Dolphins are solid defensively, have a tricky gimmick offense and their at home. That being said, the Saints have Drew "Motherfuckin'" Brees(my mother told me to always cuss for emphasis)! The Saints are solid defensively as well and I think this could be a good week for the other half of the Bush N' Tush combo to bust out(Reggie or Kim K, whichever you choose). Saints by 10, with 3 TDs by Drew Breeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees.......THAT'S WHAT I'M TALKIN' ABOUT!
Atlanta (+4) at Dallas
Gabe: Dallas - The Cowboys still have a lot to prove and they need to start winning games to keep pace in the NFC. The 'Boys are coming off a bye so they are rested. Because they are at home I'm taking them to win by a touchdown.
Dave: Atlanta - Lest we forget, this is a Cowboys team that needed overtime to beat the Chiefs. The Falcons have the better quarterback, better receivers and arguably, the better running back. The defenses are about similar unless DeMarcus Ware stops reading the Carlos Zambrano Book of How To Perform When Seeking A New Contract and starts providing a pass rush for Dallas. Look, I'll believe the Cowboys can beat a good team when they actually do it. 'Til then, I like the Falcons by 10. Three picks for Romo.
Arizona (+7) at N.Y. Giants
Gabe: New York - The Giants will be at home looking to bounce back from their embarrassing loss last week. They are angry and will be motivated. The G-Men's pass rush always harasses Kurt Warner. I think Old Man Warner gets beat up and the Giants win big.
Dave: New York - Weather will probably turn this game into a run-fest as neither Warner or Eli can really throw into the wind. At press time, the weather report looks like it will be about 40 degrees and windy at Giants Stadium. I like the combo of Jacobs and Bradshaw over Hightower and Weenie Wells. Giants barely cover, win by 9.
Philadelphia (-7) at Washington
Gabe: Philadelphia - This is a division game, so we know both teams should be jacked to play. Philly will also be angry over losing last week to Oakland, so they will be coming out snorting. We all know how bad Washington is on the field and what a mess they are in the organization. Philly wins by 10.
Dave: Philadelphia - Really? I have to explain this one? I'll put it this way: I'd take Robin Givens in a fight over Mike Tyson before I take the Redskins over ANYONE.
Anyway, Dave leads for the season, 56-34 to 53-37.
On to Week 7...
San Diego (-5) at Kansas City
Gabe: Kansas City - San Diego is not that good. Kansas City is not as bad as their record indicates. This line is too big. I think San Diego wins by a field goal.
Dave: Kansas City - The Chiefs have proven to be scrappier than Doug Christie's wife in the tunnel at Arco Arena so far this season. The Chargers have seem to give up on coach Norv Turner and, while the Chiefs aren't the team they once were, it's still tough to go into Arrowhead and get a W. Chiefs win it outright by a field goal.
Indianapolis (-13.5) at St. Louis
Gabe: Indianapolis - St. Louis is historically bad. Indy is not going to let this game get close. Peyton Manning and his laser rocket arm will have Indy up big early and they stay ahead in one of the least competitive games of the season.
Dave: Indianapolis - The Colts could start Johnny Unitas and still win this game. Look, Peyton Manning's playing like a guy who wants to take the single season TD record back from Tom Brady and against a Rams defense that's softer than cotton, I think he goes for 6 scores in this one. Colts have this one early and Rams coach Steve Spagnoulo flirts with bringing in Albert Pujols to play QB by halftime.
Chicago (pk) at Cincinnati
Gabe: Cincinnati - I think Cincy should be favored in this game. They are at home. Aside from the Houston game they have been playing very well. Chicago has been up and down all year. I think Cincy wins.
Dave: Chicago - Disgruntled players or coaches facing their former team are 3-0 so far this season(Benedict Favre vs. Green Bay, Torry Holt vs. Nellyville, Josh McDaniels vs. The Boston Hoodie), but I think Bengals RB Cedric Benson angered the Karma Gods by running his mouth this week about how the Bears blackballed him upon his release a year ago. Not only that, but the Bengals showed last week that they don't have much pass rush with DE Antwan Odom done for the year and not having a pass rush against Jay Cutler and the Chicago Speed Patrol(Hester, Knox, Bennett....I'm just full of nicknames today!) tends to do more harm than good. Bears pull off the road win and stay in the hunt in the North.
Green Bay (-8.5) at Cleveland
Gabe: Green Bay - Green Bay better win this game by 10 or more. Cleveland is awful. Their best player is now a New York Jet. Green Bay should roll.
Dave: Green Bay - Same rules apply this week as they did last week for the Pack. Significantly inferior opponent, this time made more inferior by half the team contracting swine flu, in a game the Packers need to stay afloat in the NFC North. Packers flirt with back-to-back shutouts, Clay Matthews makes another move towards Defensive ROY, and Rodgers only gets sacked twice. Packers by 20.
Minnesota (+6) at Pittsburgh
Gabe: Minnesota - I think this game is going to be close either direction. I think Pittsburgh is the better team, but the Vikings always keep it close. I think Pittsburgh wins, but by less than six.
Dave: Pittsburgh - Call it bitterness if you want but I'm buying the Vikings more as a team of fortune than a team of skill. They nearly blew a 13 point lead to Green Bay a few weeks ago, despite notching nearly 100 sacks and forcing two turnovers(and Benedict Favre suddenly finding The Fountian of Juice, er, Youth). They beat San Fran on a lucky fling into the end zone. They escaped Baltimore last week thanks to a shanked field goal in the closing seconds after the Ravens were down 14 in the 4th quarter. Eventually, that good fortune has to wear off. They'll be playing without top corner Antione Winfield against a Steelers' O that can beat through the air or on the ground(Also, newsflash to all the experts slurping the Vikings D, you can move the ball on these guys. Aaron Rodgers nearly went for 400 yards on them, despite only have 3 offensive linemen!) Steelers win this one big.
New England (-14.5) vs. Tampa Bay (in London)
Gabe: New England - Tampa Bay sucks anywhere on U.S. soil. Now they have to travel across the pond to England. Forget it. New England flirts with the shutout again and wins huge.
Dave: New England - Here's a better bet to place.....imagine the spread of the Pats facing the Tampa Bay Lightning or the Tampa Bay Rays or, shit, even the University of Central Florida....I'd say all those teams make it closer than the Bucs will against Brady's Bunch in The House That Ringo Built. Patriots don't get the shutout but win this one going away.
San Francisco (+3) at Houston
Gabe: Houston - Houston's problem at the beginning of the year was run defense. Well, over the last three games they have given up only 45 yards per game on the ground, second best in the league during that span. Frank Gore will test them, but I don't think he will be enough. The 49ers are 20th in the league in pass defense. Houston's pass offense ranks 3rd in the NFL. (If you read the brilliance that is the Houston Texans page at www.sportstalkbuzz.com you'd know all of this already.) This is a classic case of weakness vs. strength. Houston wins by 10.
Dave: San Francisco - It took all of two weeks for the Niners to submissively bend over to Michael Crabtree by giving him the starting job after he sat and pouted for months over his contract. Certainly, that could anger the Karma Gods, but the Texans have a tendency to shit the bed in games they should win(the Jags game comes to mind) and the Niners need this one pretty bad to hold on to their first place tie in the West. Niners are coming off a bye and I think The Inconvenient Truth puts a dent in the #2 run defense. Niners pull off the road win by 6.
N.Y. Jets (-6) at Oakland
Gabe: Oakland - Last week the Raiders came together and beat the Eagles. That was no fluke. Sure, they were helped by Andy Reid's run, run, run, punt offense, but their defense played very well. The Jets started hot but are now coming back to earth. I think the Jets' slide continues and the Raiders, despite being an organizational disaster, build on last week and get the outright win in my...wait for it...Upset Special!!!
Dave: Jets - I told you, I'm not cosigning JaMarcus Russell. Not even after he showed a pulse in a big upset of the Eagles last week. Not even after Big Fat Kris Jenkins was carted off and put on IR, killing the Jets' run defense. Not after The Sanchize morphed into John David Booty against the Bills. The loss of Jenkins is going to hurt the Jets at some point, but guess what, the Raiders can't run the ball. If Darren McFadden was a go in this one, I'd bite the bullet and take Dead Al's boys, but he's not and I think Mark Sanchez knows the backlash from the NY media if he loses here.
Buffalo (+7) at Carolina
Gabe: Buffalo - Ugh. I wouldn't watch this game if it were being played in my backyard. I'm taking Buffalo simply because seven is too many points either way. Whoever wins will do so by 3.
Dave: Buffalo - I have to agree with Gabe on this one, 7 points is too much for a team that is absolutely terrified to throw the ball. Panthers get their Clipse on and grind it out with D-Will and The Daily Show and Steve Smith starts punching out teammates by halftime. Panthers by 3.
New Orleans (-6) at Miami
Gabe: New Orleans - No one can stop New Orleans and Drew "MFin" Brees right now. Miami's defense is not that good and the Saints defense is much better than it has been lately. The Saints continue to roll and win by at least a touchdown.
Dave: New Orleans - This has all the makings of a trap game. Dolphins are solid defensively, have a tricky gimmick offense and their at home. That being said, the Saints have Drew "Motherfuckin'" Brees(my mother told me to always cuss for emphasis)! The Saints are solid defensively as well and I think this could be a good week for the other half of the Bush N' Tush combo to bust out(Reggie or Kim K, whichever you choose). Saints by 10, with 3 TDs by Drew Breeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees.......THAT'S WHAT I'M TALKIN' ABOUT!
Atlanta (+4) at Dallas
Gabe: Dallas - The Cowboys still have a lot to prove and they need to start winning games to keep pace in the NFC. The 'Boys are coming off a bye so they are rested. Because they are at home I'm taking them to win by a touchdown.
Dave: Atlanta - Lest we forget, this is a Cowboys team that needed overtime to beat the Chiefs. The Falcons have the better quarterback, better receivers and arguably, the better running back. The defenses are about similar unless DeMarcus Ware stops reading the Carlos Zambrano Book of How To Perform When Seeking A New Contract and starts providing a pass rush for Dallas. Look, I'll believe the Cowboys can beat a good team when they actually do it. 'Til then, I like the Falcons by 10. Three picks for Romo.
Arizona (+7) at N.Y. Giants
Gabe: New York - The Giants will be at home looking to bounce back from their embarrassing loss last week. They are angry and will be motivated. The G-Men's pass rush always harasses Kurt Warner. I think Old Man Warner gets beat up and the Giants win big.
Dave: New York - Weather will probably turn this game into a run-fest as neither Warner or Eli can really throw into the wind. At press time, the weather report looks like it will be about 40 degrees and windy at Giants Stadium. I like the combo of Jacobs and Bradshaw over Hightower and Weenie Wells. Giants barely cover, win by 9.
Philadelphia (-7) at Washington
Gabe: Philadelphia - This is a division game, so we know both teams should be jacked to play. Philly will also be angry over losing last week to Oakland, so they will be coming out snorting. We all know how bad Washington is on the field and what a mess they are in the organization. Philly wins by 10.
Dave: Philadelphia - Really? I have to explain this one? I'll put it this way: I'd take Robin Givens in a fight over Mike Tyson before I take the Redskins over ANYONE.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Milk Carton All-Star of the Week......10/23/2009
Many of you might recognize the man whose head is sunk into his hand in this famous photo from the 2001 World Series. This is former journeyman relief pitcher Byung-Hyun Kim. Kim(or B.K., however you choose) was the Ray Finkle of relievers due to his uncanny ability to crack in tough spots. Diamondback fans got a good look at this pose from B.K. back in 2001, when he blew Games 4 and 5 when he gave up game-winning homers to Tino Martinez and Scott Brosius in back-to-back nights. To put it plainly, Kim was the second biggest disappointment to his Arizona, just behind Mustafa Shakur.
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However, it wasn't always that way. Kim came up with Arizona in 1999 as hard-throwing, side-arm closer of the future. He got the chance to shut the door in 2000 when then-closer(and perennial Milk Carton candidate) Matt Mantai opened the season on the disabled list. He struck out 111 in 70.2 innings before imploding in July and getting demoted to Triple-A, which opened the door for Mantai to take the job back. Kim came back in '01 as the setup man and then took over as the closer down the stretch after Mantai went down once again and struck out 113 in 98 innings. Then, as mentioned earlier, in the '01 World Series against the Yankees, Kim blew harder than Kim Kardashian after a Saints victory.
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Even after his implosion in the Series(which Arizona inevitably won after Mariano Rivera got a sudden case of Byung-Hyun Kim in Game 7), Kim showed no signs of being effected by his poor postseason performance. He set the franchise record for saves with 36, struck out 92 and went 8-3 with 2.04 ERA and notched his first All-Star appearance. The next year, Mantai attempted another comeback and that forced Kim into the starting rotation where he stunk the joint up with a 1-5 record and a 3.56 ERA. In May, he was dealt to Boston for first baseman Shea Hillenbrand. Kim became the closer for the Red Sox in July and converted 16 of 19 saves despite injuries to his ankle and shoulder. The most notable moment of Kim's Boston stint came in Game 3 of the '02 ALDS when, after a cacophony of booing from the Fenway faithful, he flipped off Red Sox Nation. A year later, he was dealt to Colorado for a minor league pitcher and washed up catcher Charles Johnson(who was subsequently released). Kim fluctuated from the bullpen to the rotation while with the Rockies, with his most notable moment being giving up Home Run # 715 to Barry Bonds to pass Babe Ruth for 2nd on the all-time list in 2006.
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Then came a very crazy 2007. Frustrated with his lack of a set role in Colorado, Kim and agent Scott Boras asked for a trade and got one as he was sent to the Marlins for fireballing Hefty bag Jorge Julio. After recording his 50th career win, Kim was put on waivers where he was picked up by.........the Arizona Diamonbacks! Kim's Arizona return lasted two starts before being designated for assignment in August. Later that month, he returned to Florida where he won his 10th game of the season against the Mets. The next year, in 2008, he signed with Quadruple-A ball club, the Pittsburgh Pirates, but was so horrendous in spring training that he was released before the season. For his 9 year career, Kim was 54-60 with 4.42 ERA and 806 strikeouts.
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So let's give it up for the Korean John Wettleland.........Byung-Hyun Kim, ladies and gentlemen!
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Coulda Been Contenders
The NFL trading deadline has come and gone. Your big winner of Trade Deadline '09? Linebacker Will Witherspoon, who was traded from the lowly Rams to the not-nearly-as-good-as-we-thought Eagles in exchange for a 5th round pick and receiver you probably don't care about. NFL bloggers and insiders from SI's Peter King to ESPN's Adam Schefter have been vehement in their declaration to fans that this year's deadline, like most years' deadlines, isn't going to have a lot of headline-grabbing moves. Granted, we saw guys like Braylon Edwards, Gaines Adams and Richard Seymour move in the season's first 6 weeks. The NFL, as Schefter and King kept telling us, isn't baseball or basketball, where big names are moved around midseason annually.
My question? Why the hell not? I know, I know, 6 weeks into a season is a bit early for fire sales to commence and if bad teams start feeling pressured to sell off their most valuable assets before the season's halfway point, then the NFL will end up like the NBA and MLB where the cellar dwellers act as feeder teams for the perennial upper echelon. I get that. But, how about a little more sizzle? Why make mention of a trade deadline if the only guys finding new homes are journeymen linebackers like Witherspoon? Of course, the evolution of social networking has allowed a vast majority of idiot fan boys to either blog about or ask about moronic, non-sensical trades that are more self-serving rumor mill gossip than anything newsworthy. For instance, on Twitter, you can find numerous re-tweets from Schefter of idiot fans asking about trades such as Steven Jackson for Ryan Grant or Brady Quinn for Tony Romo or well, you get the picture.
So, in an effort to stick up for the minority of bloggers with at least some common sense and football knowledge, I compiled a list of guys who probably SHOULD have been dealt before today's 4 PM deadline and where I thought they should go.
1. Brady Quinn, QB, Browns
Where he should have went: Seattle-I suggested the Seahawks go after Quinn on SportsTalkBuzz, and I stand by that suggestion. Look, some first round QBs take time to develop. Guys like Matt Ryan or Big Ben or Dan Marino are a rare breed. Quinn's problems in Cleveland were plentiful. One, he came into camp late thanks to a contract squabble and inevitably fell behind then-surprise sensation Derek Anderson for the starter gig. That's not to say that Quinn should have started had he reported on time, but you have to remember this about Quinn: He was a Notre Damn product, whom the Browns had just sold the farm for and gave a big contract to and by missing time in camp, he added more weight onto his shoulders. We all know how the story eventually shook out for Quinn. Anderson shook up the world, then came back to Earth, Quinn took over, got hurt, Romeo Crennel gets fired, Eric Mangini comes in, there's a competition between Quinn and Anderson, Quinn wins and before the sun can shine on October, Mangini benches him and has shown no sign in pulling Anderson despite the fact he's been abysmal. That means only one thing: Quinn's played his last days in Cleveland.
So why Seattle, you ask? The Seahawks need a young QB behind Matt Hasselbeck, who's 33 and becoming more and more fragile. Current backup Seneca Wallace will be 30 next season. Quinn's 25. That's pretty simple math. Theoretically, Hasselbeck plays one, maybe two more seasons before hanging it up. With Quinn on the roster, he would have learned behind an experienced veteran for two years(as opposed to learning from Anderson, a Ravens throw-away who unbelievably had everything bounce his way in his first season as starter) and would allow the Seahawks to build up enough talent elsewhere so that Quinn doesn't have to do everything himself when his time came to take over(a problem that surfaced in Cleveland once the Browns traded Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards couldn't chisel the stone off his hands). Plus, Mangini clearly wants to get rid of Quinn, which means he'll deal him for cheap. If you can get a 25-year old QB with considerable tools for a Day 2 pick, you do it, right? It's better than taking a rookie in the first round and paying him some ridiculous contract. So Quinn would go to Seattle, sit a couple years, let the O-Line build up, learn from Hasselbeck and in a year or two, he's ready to go. If he fails, so what? It only cost you a 3rd or 4th.
2. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
Where he should have went: New England-I understand the Rams not wanting to pay the big cost of moving Jackson midseason(around 5.5 million dollar cap hit), but this team is going nowhere and eventually, you have to think Jackson's going to get pissed and force their hand. Sure, at 26, Jackson is the type of back you'd like to build your team around, but this team is 3 or 4 years away from even being considered a contender and by then, Jackson will be 30 and damaged goods. Why not strike while the iron is hot? If you can snatch a 1st, 3rd and disgruntled linebacker Adalius Thomas away from the Pats in exchange for the running back you've been looking for since Curtis Martin left, I say you do it. The Rams could use the extra picks in what looks like a very deep draft and Belichick can quit trying to get by with journeymen like Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris. Jackson's big, fast and can catch out of the backfield, and while being a bit injury-prone, he's definitely worth the gamble for the Pats.
3. Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs
Where he should have went: Houston-LJ was once a promising, young franchise back like Steven Jackson. Now he's a washed-up power back with a big contract. The Chiefs would probably take 10 cents on the dollar for Johnson, who is averaging a pitiful 2.7 yards per carry. At 230 lbs with a little bit of zip left, he'd be a solid short-yardage back for a team that's already lost two games this season because of their inability to punch it in on the goal line. Look, Chris Brown isn't cutting it and the combination of Johnson's power with Steve Slaton's speed makes the Texans much more dangerous on the ground and, in turn, more dangerous on offense. As for the Chiefs, it relieves them of one of their biggest headaches and let's face it, they can get 2.7 yards per carry just as easy from Jamaal Charles or even free agent RB Duece McAllister. If you can snatch away a 5th rounder to shed some payroll and build chemistry, I say do it.
4. Shawne Merriman, LB, Chargers
Where he should have went: Green Bay-At first glance, this seems like one of those self-serving prophecies I was criticizing earlier, but hear me out. The Packers showed in the Vikings Monday night game that they lack a pass-rush as former Pro Bowl DE Aaron Kampman(whose name will come up here soon enough) isn't getting it done in his new role as an OLB in Dom Capers' 3-4 scheme. The Packers also have something the Chargers desperately need: a spare nose tackle. DT Ryan Pickett has done well in clogging the middle as the nose tackle, but he's approaching 30 and in a contract year and we all know that job will be go to first rounder B.J. Raji before the season ends. With Pickett not likely to get re-signed, he could be a nice rental for a Chargers team that needs a fill-in for Jamal Williams, who is on the IR. Merriman, like Pickett, is also looking for a new deal and if he can prove worthy in Green Bay, the Packers certainly have the cap room to pay up for Lights Out(since Kampman probably won't be re-signed). Of course, the Packers have bigger issues, which brings me to....
5. Aaron Kampman, DE/LB, Packers
Where he should have went: Cincinnati-In the wake of the loss of current NFL sack leader Antwan Odom to injury, I'm surprised the Bengals didn't make a move for another pass rusher before the deadline. Kampman, a pass rush machine with his hand on the ground as a DE, would have been the perfect fill-in for Odom and would have allowed Kampman to be in a scheme he's more comfortable in. In exchange for Kampman, the Bengals could have sent promising left tackle Anthony Collins, who was pushed aside for first rounder Andre Smith at left tackle. Collins could step in for the recently injured Chad Clifton on the left side and then slide to the right once Clifton comes back and fill in for Mark Tauscher, who is still recovering from knee surgery. Kampman, on the other hand, is in the last year of his deal, but now that's back in the 4-3, he can use the last 10 games as motivation to improve on his numbers to get his price tag up for the offseason. Look, I love Aaron Kampman. He has a tireless work ethic and he's a nightmare to offenses, but the team knew going in that he wasn't a fit for the new 3-4 and Kampman has done nothing to quell those doubts. If the Packers wanted to contend this season, it would have been more aggressive in improving the offensive line and used a premier pass rusher like Kampman as a solid trade chip.
6. Terrell Owens, WR, Bills
Where he should have went: Baltimore-The Bills season died when they fired the offensive coordinator midway into preseason. That move stalled the offense which essentially started the timer on the T.O. Ticking Time Bomb. Now, Owens has been relatively quiet in terms of throwing his teammates under the bus as refuge for his terrible start, but it's only a matter of time before Mount Terrell erupts. The Owens signing made sense until the team traded away left tackle Jason Peters on draft day and basically assuring QB Trent Edwards that he will not be having time to throw this season. Then came the firing of OC Turk Schonert and it's been downhill ever since. So why not cut your losses and get at least a little something for T.O.? Granted, the Baltimore offense isn't what is hurting the team and the Ravens might be better suited going after a Shawne Merriman or a corner like Sheldon Brown, but T.O.'s presence on offense demands attention(both good and bad) and with Ray Lewis still in that locker room, T.O.'s antics won't fly for very long. While no longer the threat he once was, Owens can still be productive in an offense with a strong offensive line and run game that can help boost the passing game, which the Ravens have and for a 3rd or 4th round pick, that's not a bad deal for 10 games of T.O.'s service.
That's it. That's the list. Now, you'll notice I didn't have guys who have been dominating the trade rumor circus like Brandon Marshall, Anquan Boldin, Darnell Dockett, Glenn Dorsey, or Dwayne Bowe on there. That is for various reasons.
In the case of Marshall, the Broncos are 6-0 and he finally seems to be genuinely happy in Denver and the Broncos seem much more willing to work on an extension with him than they were two months ago.
As for Boldin and Dockett, it seems unlikely that the Cards will pay both men as well as linebacker Karlos Dansby, but if the team wants to make another run while QB Kurt Warner is still playing at a high level, they'll need continued production from both men. Besides, Warner came back to Arizona under the assumption that Boldin would be sticking around, so dealing him midseason would only disrupt the trust between Warner and the team.
For the Chiefs, it's too early to cut the cord on Dorsey. Yes, he hasn't been productive thus far and, Yes, he's not a good fit in the 3-4, but at this rate, what are you going to get for a injury-prone DT with weight issues who hasn't done anything in the pros as of yet? Dorsey's got a few more years on his deal, which means he has more opportunity to prove his worth and get his value up. As for Bowe, he's in coach Todd Haley's doghouse, but if the team is going to make a franchise QB out of Matt Cassel, they'll need a solid WR like Bowe to be on the receiving end of Cassel's throws. Unless you're getting a good young receiver back in exchange(like Haley's old buddy, Boldin), you're not sending a good message to the fans by dealing away one its most promising talents.
My question? Why the hell not? I know, I know, 6 weeks into a season is a bit early for fire sales to commence and if bad teams start feeling pressured to sell off their most valuable assets before the season's halfway point, then the NFL will end up like the NBA and MLB where the cellar dwellers act as feeder teams for the perennial upper echelon. I get that. But, how about a little more sizzle? Why make mention of a trade deadline if the only guys finding new homes are journeymen linebackers like Witherspoon? Of course, the evolution of social networking has allowed a vast majority of idiot fan boys to either blog about or ask about moronic, non-sensical trades that are more self-serving rumor mill gossip than anything newsworthy. For instance, on Twitter, you can find numerous re-tweets from Schefter of idiot fans asking about trades such as Steven Jackson for Ryan Grant or Brady Quinn for Tony Romo or well, you get the picture.
So, in an effort to stick up for the minority of bloggers with at least some common sense and football knowledge, I compiled a list of guys who probably SHOULD have been dealt before today's 4 PM deadline and where I thought they should go.
1. Brady Quinn, QB, Browns
Where he should have went: Seattle-I suggested the Seahawks go after Quinn on SportsTalkBuzz, and I stand by that suggestion. Look, some first round QBs take time to develop. Guys like Matt Ryan or Big Ben or Dan Marino are a rare breed. Quinn's problems in Cleveland were plentiful. One, he came into camp late thanks to a contract squabble and inevitably fell behind then-surprise sensation Derek Anderson for the starter gig. That's not to say that Quinn should have started had he reported on time, but you have to remember this about Quinn: He was a Notre Damn product, whom the Browns had just sold the farm for and gave a big contract to and by missing time in camp, he added more weight onto his shoulders. We all know how the story eventually shook out for Quinn. Anderson shook up the world, then came back to Earth, Quinn took over, got hurt, Romeo Crennel gets fired, Eric Mangini comes in, there's a competition between Quinn and Anderson, Quinn wins and before the sun can shine on October, Mangini benches him and has shown no sign in pulling Anderson despite the fact he's been abysmal. That means only one thing: Quinn's played his last days in Cleveland.
So why Seattle, you ask? The Seahawks need a young QB behind Matt Hasselbeck, who's 33 and becoming more and more fragile. Current backup Seneca Wallace will be 30 next season. Quinn's 25. That's pretty simple math. Theoretically, Hasselbeck plays one, maybe two more seasons before hanging it up. With Quinn on the roster, he would have learned behind an experienced veteran for two years(as opposed to learning from Anderson, a Ravens throw-away who unbelievably had everything bounce his way in his first season as starter) and would allow the Seahawks to build up enough talent elsewhere so that Quinn doesn't have to do everything himself when his time came to take over(a problem that surfaced in Cleveland once the Browns traded Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards couldn't chisel the stone off his hands). Plus, Mangini clearly wants to get rid of Quinn, which means he'll deal him for cheap. If you can get a 25-year old QB with considerable tools for a Day 2 pick, you do it, right? It's better than taking a rookie in the first round and paying him some ridiculous contract. So Quinn would go to Seattle, sit a couple years, let the O-Line build up, learn from Hasselbeck and in a year or two, he's ready to go. If he fails, so what? It only cost you a 3rd or 4th.
2. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
Where he should have went: New England-I understand the Rams not wanting to pay the big cost of moving Jackson midseason(around 5.5 million dollar cap hit), but this team is going nowhere and eventually, you have to think Jackson's going to get pissed and force their hand. Sure, at 26, Jackson is the type of back you'd like to build your team around, but this team is 3 or 4 years away from even being considered a contender and by then, Jackson will be 30 and damaged goods. Why not strike while the iron is hot? If you can snatch a 1st, 3rd and disgruntled linebacker Adalius Thomas away from the Pats in exchange for the running back you've been looking for since Curtis Martin left, I say you do it. The Rams could use the extra picks in what looks like a very deep draft and Belichick can quit trying to get by with journeymen like Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris. Jackson's big, fast and can catch out of the backfield, and while being a bit injury-prone, he's definitely worth the gamble for the Pats.
3. Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs
Where he should have went: Houston-LJ was once a promising, young franchise back like Steven Jackson. Now he's a washed-up power back with a big contract. The Chiefs would probably take 10 cents on the dollar for Johnson, who is averaging a pitiful 2.7 yards per carry. At 230 lbs with a little bit of zip left, he'd be a solid short-yardage back for a team that's already lost two games this season because of their inability to punch it in on the goal line. Look, Chris Brown isn't cutting it and the combination of Johnson's power with Steve Slaton's speed makes the Texans much more dangerous on the ground and, in turn, more dangerous on offense. As for the Chiefs, it relieves them of one of their biggest headaches and let's face it, they can get 2.7 yards per carry just as easy from Jamaal Charles or even free agent RB Duece McAllister. If you can snatch away a 5th rounder to shed some payroll and build chemistry, I say do it.
4. Shawne Merriman, LB, Chargers
Where he should have went: Green Bay-At first glance, this seems like one of those self-serving prophecies I was criticizing earlier, but hear me out. The Packers showed in the Vikings Monday night game that they lack a pass-rush as former Pro Bowl DE Aaron Kampman(whose name will come up here soon enough) isn't getting it done in his new role as an OLB in Dom Capers' 3-4 scheme. The Packers also have something the Chargers desperately need: a spare nose tackle. DT Ryan Pickett has done well in clogging the middle as the nose tackle, but he's approaching 30 and in a contract year and we all know that job will be go to first rounder B.J. Raji before the season ends. With Pickett not likely to get re-signed, he could be a nice rental for a Chargers team that needs a fill-in for Jamal Williams, who is on the IR. Merriman, like Pickett, is also looking for a new deal and if he can prove worthy in Green Bay, the Packers certainly have the cap room to pay up for Lights Out(since Kampman probably won't be re-signed). Of course, the Packers have bigger issues, which brings me to....
5. Aaron Kampman, DE/LB, Packers
Where he should have went: Cincinnati-In the wake of the loss of current NFL sack leader Antwan Odom to injury, I'm surprised the Bengals didn't make a move for another pass rusher before the deadline. Kampman, a pass rush machine with his hand on the ground as a DE, would have been the perfect fill-in for Odom and would have allowed Kampman to be in a scheme he's more comfortable in. In exchange for Kampman, the Bengals could have sent promising left tackle Anthony Collins, who was pushed aside for first rounder Andre Smith at left tackle. Collins could step in for the recently injured Chad Clifton on the left side and then slide to the right once Clifton comes back and fill in for Mark Tauscher, who is still recovering from knee surgery. Kampman, on the other hand, is in the last year of his deal, but now that's back in the 4-3, he can use the last 10 games as motivation to improve on his numbers to get his price tag up for the offseason. Look, I love Aaron Kampman. He has a tireless work ethic and he's a nightmare to offenses, but the team knew going in that he wasn't a fit for the new 3-4 and Kampman has done nothing to quell those doubts. If the Packers wanted to contend this season, it would have been more aggressive in improving the offensive line and used a premier pass rusher like Kampman as a solid trade chip.
6. Terrell Owens, WR, Bills
Where he should have went: Baltimore-The Bills season died when they fired the offensive coordinator midway into preseason. That move stalled the offense which essentially started the timer on the T.O. Ticking Time Bomb. Now, Owens has been relatively quiet in terms of throwing his teammates under the bus as refuge for his terrible start, but it's only a matter of time before Mount Terrell erupts. The Owens signing made sense until the team traded away left tackle Jason Peters on draft day and basically assuring QB Trent Edwards that he will not be having time to throw this season. Then came the firing of OC Turk Schonert and it's been downhill ever since. So why not cut your losses and get at least a little something for T.O.? Granted, the Baltimore offense isn't what is hurting the team and the Ravens might be better suited going after a Shawne Merriman or a corner like Sheldon Brown, but T.O.'s presence on offense demands attention(both good and bad) and with Ray Lewis still in that locker room, T.O.'s antics won't fly for very long. While no longer the threat he once was, Owens can still be productive in an offense with a strong offensive line and run game that can help boost the passing game, which the Ravens have and for a 3rd or 4th round pick, that's not a bad deal for 10 games of T.O.'s service.
That's it. That's the list. Now, you'll notice I didn't have guys who have been dominating the trade rumor circus like Brandon Marshall, Anquan Boldin, Darnell Dockett, Glenn Dorsey, or Dwayne Bowe on there. That is for various reasons.
In the case of Marshall, the Broncos are 6-0 and he finally seems to be genuinely happy in Denver and the Broncos seem much more willing to work on an extension with him than they were two months ago.
As for Boldin and Dockett, it seems unlikely that the Cards will pay both men as well as linebacker Karlos Dansby, but if the team wants to make another run while QB Kurt Warner is still playing at a high level, they'll need continued production from both men. Besides, Warner came back to Arizona under the assumption that Boldin would be sticking around, so dealing him midseason would only disrupt the trust between Warner and the team.
For the Chiefs, it's too early to cut the cord on Dorsey. Yes, he hasn't been productive thus far and, Yes, he's not a good fit in the 3-4, but at this rate, what are you going to get for a injury-prone DT with weight issues who hasn't done anything in the pros as of yet? Dorsey's got a few more years on his deal, which means he has more opportunity to prove his worth and get his value up. As for Bowe, he's in coach Todd Haley's doghouse, but if the team is going to make a franchise QB out of Matt Cassel, they'll need a solid WR like Bowe to be on the receiving end of Cassel's throws. Unless you're getting a good young receiver back in exchange(like Haley's old buddy, Boldin), you're not sending a good message to the fans by dealing away one its most promising talents.
Monday, October 19, 2009
They Should Be Embarrassed
Yesterday in the NFL produced some crazy results and there are a few teams who should be embarrassed this morning. Here are the five teams that should be most looking to hide their faces today.
5. The New York Jets - Two games ago the Bills put up three, count 'em three, points at home against the woeful Cleveland Browns. It's bad enough the Jets lost this game, but at home, in overtime, with only three minutes left in the extra time? Unacceptable. And of course the New York media is already calling for Mark Sanchez's head, but, that's New York for you. Two weeks ago they were offering Sanchez their daughters and wanted to make him mayor. Now, he's a bum. Well, at least for the next few days, the rest of the team can be bums with him.
4. The New York Giants - Anytime a team has the no. 1 statistical defense in the league and then gets 48 points hung them they should be ashamed. I don't care if it is Drew "MF'in" Brees and the Saints' machine like offense, feel free to play some defense. Feel free to have safety C.C. Brown not be out of position on every Saints touchdown pass. Check that. He was in the proper position once, and he ended up with his face in the turf and Robert Meachum laying on top of him. OK, I'm glad I got that out of my system. Hopefully this will wake the Giants up and they realize they aren't playing Oakland and Tampa Bay every week.
3. The Philadelphia Eagles - Oakland? Really? Fourteen running plays? Really? But I guess that is what you get when you play Andy Walrus-ball. The other team takes the lead and you panic and abandon the run. Also, Philly's O-line made the Oakland front seven look like superstars. It seemed like Richard Seymour was coming from both end spots at the same time. It's OK though Philly, you have the Redskins next week. You won't have to run the ball then. Speaking of the Redskins...
2. The Washington Redskins - Six games. Six games against teams who had not yet won a game (including the opener against the Giants). Two wins. Even a below average team would get three wins out of that. Take out the Giants game and they have lost to Detroit, Carolina, and Kansas City, teams that are a combined 4-162 (the number in the loss column might be exaggerated.) Now they are going to have their plays called by a guy whose last job was calling bingo (true story, no exaggeration.) They should let Zorn out of his misery already, because this team is a grease fire from the owner on down.
1. The Tennessee Titans - 59-0. Worst loss in the NFL since the merger. Nuff said. (OK, one more thing. The Titans QB's combined stat line: 14 attempts, 2 completions, 2 interceptions, -7 yards. That's right, on every pass play they would have been better off launching each ball into the stands. At least then they would have given some fans a souvenir.)
Bonus: The L.A. Dodgers - Just a reminder, this is the NLCS. You're supposed to be one of the two best teams in the league. Losing 11-0 just don't cut it.
Bonus no. 2: The team my flag football team was supposed to play on Sunday morning. Only one player from your team showed up, and she has since defected to our team. Take that.
5. The New York Jets - Two games ago the Bills put up three, count 'em three, points at home against the woeful Cleveland Browns. It's bad enough the Jets lost this game, but at home, in overtime, with only three minutes left in the extra time? Unacceptable. And of course the New York media is already calling for Mark Sanchez's head, but, that's New York for you. Two weeks ago they were offering Sanchez their daughters and wanted to make him mayor. Now, he's a bum. Well, at least for the next few days, the rest of the team can be bums with him.
4. The New York Giants - Anytime a team has the no. 1 statistical defense in the league and then gets 48 points hung them they should be ashamed. I don't care if it is Drew "MF'in" Brees and the Saints' machine like offense, feel free to play some defense. Feel free to have safety C.C. Brown not be out of position on every Saints touchdown pass. Check that. He was in the proper position once, and he ended up with his face in the turf and Robert Meachum laying on top of him. OK, I'm glad I got that out of my system. Hopefully this will wake the Giants up and they realize they aren't playing Oakland and Tampa Bay every week.
3. The Philadelphia Eagles - Oakland? Really? Fourteen running plays? Really? But I guess that is what you get when you play Andy Walrus-ball. The other team takes the lead and you panic and abandon the run. Also, Philly's O-line made the Oakland front seven look like superstars. It seemed like Richard Seymour was coming from both end spots at the same time. It's OK though Philly, you have the Redskins next week. You won't have to run the ball then. Speaking of the Redskins...
2. The Washington Redskins - Six games. Six games against teams who had not yet won a game (including the opener against the Giants). Two wins. Even a below average team would get three wins out of that. Take out the Giants game and they have lost to Detroit, Carolina, and Kansas City, teams that are a combined 4-162 (the number in the loss column might be exaggerated.) Now they are going to have their plays called by a guy whose last job was calling bingo (true story, no exaggeration.) They should let Zorn out of his misery already, because this team is a grease fire from the owner on down.
1. The Tennessee Titans - 59-0. Worst loss in the NFL since the merger. Nuff said. (OK, one more thing. The Titans QB's combined stat line: 14 attempts, 2 completions, 2 interceptions, -7 yards. That's right, on every pass play they would have been better off launching each ball into the stands. At least then they would have given some fans a souvenir.)
Bonus: The L.A. Dodgers - Just a reminder, this is the NLCS. You're supposed to be one of the two best teams in the league. Losing 11-0 just don't cut it.
Bonus no. 2: The team my flag football team was supposed to play on Sunday morning. Only one player from your team showed up, and she has since defected to our team. Take that.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Week 6 Picks
Well, Dave and I both bounced back after a miserable Week 4 and posted identical 9-5 records in our picks last week.
This brings our season totals to 48-28 for Dave and 46-30 for Gabe.
This week, and for the rest of the season I presume, we will be using Danny Sheridan's odds in the USA Today. I've tried to get cute and use the Las Vegas Hilton numbers from Covers.com, but have proven week after week that I don't know how to read them correctly. Thanks to Dave though, none of you saw any of that.
Alright, enough nonsense, let's get to the picks.
Kansas City (+6) at Washington
Gabe: Kansas City - Washington is where losing streaks get broken. The Redskins are in shambles. Kansas City is better than their 0-fer record shows. I don't know if Kansas City will win the game, but they will beat the number.
Dave: Kansas City- After last week, I wouldn't even take the Redskins over Villanova. Zorn is a termination waiting to happen and I think this game will be a precursor to the 'Skins inevitably shitting the bed on Monday night and losing by 42 to the Eagles next week. Chiefs win outright, by a field goal.
Houston (+5.5) at Cincinnati
Gabe: Houston - If you read my preview at www.sportstalkbuzz.com (Boom! - Cross-promoted) you would already know that I think this will be a shoot-out. The Bengals rank 23rd in the NFL in pass defense. The Texans can't stop anyone, but have a huge offense. I think this game will be decided by a field goal.
Dave: Cincinnati-As a guy who watched his team drop nearly half the games its played last season by less than a field goal, I can tell you that bad luck during the end of games isn't something that goes away midseason(Conversely, the Bengals have outstanding luck at the end of games, and I don't expect that to change midseason either). Houston's defense isn't as good as many expected and the Bengals, while a team that wins ugly, can move the ball through the air and ground. I like the Bengals by 10.
Cleveland (+14) at Pittsburgh
Gabe: Pittsburgh - I think Cleveland's qb's have completed 4 passes all season. The Steelers are going to have Santonio Holmes totally healthy and may get Polamalu back. I think Pittsburgh dominates on defense and on the ground. Cleveland won't have a chance to score...Pittsburgh by 17.
Dave: Pittsburgh- Cleveland managed 6 points against the Bills last week. THE BILLS! Steelers, needless to say, are a lot better than Buffalo and while this Steelers team hasn't impressed(which makes a two touchdown spread hard to swallow), these Browns have already mailed it in. Steelers by 20.
Baltimore (+3) at Minnesota
Gabe: Minnesota - Last week the Ravens gave up 100 yards to a running back for the first time since Ray Lewis had a clean rap sheet, and that was to Cedric Benson, who hasn't been good since...well, since Ray Lewis had a clean rap sheet. I think they are going to get more of the same against AP. I think Minnesota's defense does enough against the Baltimore running game. Minnesota by a touchdown.
Dave: Baltimore- Yes, the Ravens gave up their first 100 yard rusher in years, but the key stat there is that it had been YEARS. As in, it doesn't happen often. Remember Cedric Benson busted loose on Green Bay a few weeks ago, and they did a nice job of shutting down AP on that Monday nighter, albeit in a losing effort. Look, Brett Favre's Rotting Corpse has to implode eventually and why not do it against the most turnover-happy D in the league. Favre throws three picks, Ravens end the Favre-ESPN lovefest and win by 6.
St. Louis (+9.5) at Jacksonville
Gabe: St. Louis - I can't get a bead on Jacksonville. What I do know about them is their pass defense is the worst in the NFL. I also know that Boller & Avery sounds like a goofy FM drive-time radio show, not a feared QB-to-WR passing combo. But, I think St. Louis has to break out at some point, and, I don't the Jags can beat anyone by 10. Jags by a touchdown.
Dave: Jacksonville-If the Jags were going to win a game by 10 points, wouldn't it be against the team that's been shut out twice in 5 games? Big game for Mike Sims-Walker as the Jags are auctioning him off in a trade and I think Torry Holt sticks it to his old mates as well. Jags by 13.
N.Y. Giants (+3.5) at New Orleans -
Gabe - New York - The Giants have gotten to 5-0 by picking on the worst teams in the league. However, they didn't struggle and none of those games were ever close, except against the Cowboys. Now the G-Men are jumping into the teeth of their schedule. The Saints are coming off of a bye week, they're healthy, and they're at home. I think this game will be high-scoring and the Saints will win by 3.
Dave: New Orleans-Saints are coming off a bye, their D is much improved, and Eli's hurt. I know the Giants are great on the road, but Drew Brees has to have one of those "I'm Drew Motherfuckin' Brees!" games up his sleeve after being ordinary the last few weeks, right? Saints by 7.
Carolina (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
Gabe: Carolina - Easy. Tampa Bay stinks. Carolina has a bad record but they are still really talented on offense. Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith have a huge day. Carolina by double digits.
Dave: Carolina- Panthers by 10. I won't even waste your time with analysis.
Detroit (+14) at Green Bay
Gabe: Detroit - Division games are always hard fought. I think Kevin Smith is going to have a good game and be the difference...the difference between losing by 17 or losing by 10. I think Green Bay wins easy, but only by 10.
Dave: Green Bay-No Calvin Johnson, No Matt Stafford, Packers coming off a bye, at home and they need this one BAD. Time to show the world what you're made of, boys! Packers cover this thing barely against a scrappy Lions team, Pack by 17 and Nick Collins takes one to the house.
Philadelphia (-14) at Oakland
Gabe: Philadelphia - Oakland sucks. JaMarcus Russell completes about 6 passes a game. Philly will dominate this game in every way and they will win by at least 3 TD's.
Dave: Philadelphia - If two years ago, I would have told you Kevin Kolb, a guy whose best games came in a blowout loss and against one of the worst teams in history, would have been the best QB out of the 2007 Draft, how quickly would you drug test me? Eagles have this one over by halftime and Raiders fans try to find arsenic to slip in Al Davis' Milk of Magnesia.
Arizona (+3) at Seattle
Gabe: Arizona - I think this number is inflated because of the way Seattle dismantled Jacksonville last week. Seattle is going to have a let down. Arizona has too many weapons in their passing game. I'll take the Cardinals for the straight up win in my...wait for it...Upset Special!!!
Dave: Seattle- Let me tell you something about me: I'm like Dragnet, baby, I state the facts. Cardinals have one of the worst pass defenses in the country. Matt Hasselbeck has quietly thrown for 7 TDs in the two games he's started, both shutouts(Granted, it was St. Louis and Jacksonville, but whatever.) So while I don't think they shut Arizona out, I think this comes down to the better of two defenses(something I pointed out in my preview on sportstalkbuzz.com....Shameless plug), which is why I like Seattle by a touchdown.
Buffalo (-9.5) at N.Y. Jets
Gabe: Buffalo - I think the Jets are a little desperate right now. They started the season off red hot, but have cooled. I think they will win, but 9.5 is too big of a number. I think the Jets win by a touchdown.
Dave: Jets-9.5 isn't big enough against a team that could only muster a field goal against a Browns team that is tanking for Colt McCoy. Jets defense bullies Trent Edwards, T.O. starts clamoring for a trade by halftime, and Mark Sanchez goes back to get the ladies aroused. Jets by 14.
Tennessee (+9) at New England
Gabe: Tennessee - My reports of New England's greatness have been greatly exaggerated. Tennessee is much better than their 0-5 record shows. I keep waiting for them have a breakout game, and I think they finally will this week. I don't think they will win, but they will keep it close.
Dave: New England-If I would have told you last year that the Titans would go from 13-3 in the regular season to a crushing playoff loss to being back as Super Bowl favorites in '09 to having fans scream for Vince Young by Week 5, how fast would you drug test me? I can't take the Titans. Can't win with them! Can't do it! Pats shake off the rust on O, win by 10.
Chicago (-3.5) at Atlanta
Gabe: Atlanta - This is being touted as a match-up of two hot shot young quarterbacks. I think Atlanta got back on track with a big win last week and will continue that momentum. Atlanta by a touchdown.
Dave: Atlanta-Because, as a Packers fan, I'd like nothing more than a Bears loss, I'll take a Falcons team that just trounced a very good Niners team and the points. Cutler's due for a 4 INT game and while that's probably not coming here, I think we start to see warning signs.
Denver (-3.5) at San Diego
Gabe: San Diego - Denver has shown this year that to win you need to be good...and lucky. How do I say this delicately...I can't...they shot their load last week against New England. San Diego is rested, and at home. I think the Bolts win by a TD.
Dave: Denver-I think if I wrote a list of things I could have done in the two hours I spent writing a blog about how much the Broncos would suck this year, it would be less embarrassing to read than the actual blog about how much the Broncos would suck this year. Phillip Rivers is usually money on Monday nights and that almost gives me pause but the Broncos somehow unearthed a defense and I sincerely think Ladainian Tomlinson died in 2006 and nobody told us.
This brings our season totals to 48-28 for Dave and 46-30 for Gabe.
This week, and for the rest of the season I presume, we will be using Danny Sheridan's odds in the USA Today. I've tried to get cute and use the Las Vegas Hilton numbers from Covers.com, but have proven week after week that I don't know how to read them correctly. Thanks to Dave though, none of you saw any of that.
Alright, enough nonsense, let's get to the picks.
Kansas City (+6) at Washington
Gabe: Kansas City - Washington is where losing streaks get broken. The Redskins are in shambles. Kansas City is better than their 0-fer record shows. I don't know if Kansas City will win the game, but they will beat the number.
Dave: Kansas City- After last week, I wouldn't even take the Redskins over Villanova. Zorn is a termination waiting to happen and I think this game will be a precursor to the 'Skins inevitably shitting the bed on Monday night and losing by 42 to the Eagles next week. Chiefs win outright, by a field goal.
Houston (+5.5) at Cincinnati
Gabe: Houston - If you read my preview at www.sportstalkbuzz.com (Boom! - Cross-promoted) you would already know that I think this will be a shoot-out. The Bengals rank 23rd in the NFL in pass defense. The Texans can't stop anyone, but have a huge offense. I think this game will be decided by a field goal.
Dave: Cincinnati-As a guy who watched his team drop nearly half the games its played last season by less than a field goal, I can tell you that bad luck during the end of games isn't something that goes away midseason(Conversely, the Bengals have outstanding luck at the end of games, and I don't expect that to change midseason either). Houston's defense isn't as good as many expected and the Bengals, while a team that wins ugly, can move the ball through the air and ground. I like the Bengals by 10.
Cleveland (+14) at Pittsburgh
Gabe: Pittsburgh - I think Cleveland's qb's have completed 4 passes all season. The Steelers are going to have Santonio Holmes totally healthy and may get Polamalu back. I think Pittsburgh dominates on defense and on the ground. Cleveland won't have a chance to score...Pittsburgh by 17.
Dave: Pittsburgh- Cleveland managed 6 points against the Bills last week. THE BILLS! Steelers, needless to say, are a lot better than Buffalo and while this Steelers team hasn't impressed(which makes a two touchdown spread hard to swallow), these Browns have already mailed it in. Steelers by 20.
Baltimore (+3) at Minnesota
Gabe: Minnesota - Last week the Ravens gave up 100 yards to a running back for the first time since Ray Lewis had a clean rap sheet, and that was to Cedric Benson, who hasn't been good since...well, since Ray Lewis had a clean rap sheet. I think they are going to get more of the same against AP. I think Minnesota's defense does enough against the Baltimore running game. Minnesota by a touchdown.
Dave: Baltimore- Yes, the Ravens gave up their first 100 yard rusher in years, but the key stat there is that it had been YEARS. As in, it doesn't happen often. Remember Cedric Benson busted loose on Green Bay a few weeks ago, and they did a nice job of shutting down AP on that Monday nighter, albeit in a losing effort. Look, Brett Favre's Rotting Corpse has to implode eventually and why not do it against the most turnover-happy D in the league. Favre throws three picks, Ravens end the Favre-ESPN lovefest and win by 6.
St. Louis (+9.5) at Jacksonville
Gabe: St. Louis - I can't get a bead on Jacksonville. What I do know about them is their pass defense is the worst in the NFL. I also know that Boller & Avery sounds like a goofy FM drive-time radio show, not a feared QB-to-WR passing combo. But, I think St. Louis has to break out at some point, and, I don't the Jags can beat anyone by 10. Jags by a touchdown.
Dave: Jacksonville-If the Jags were going to win a game by 10 points, wouldn't it be against the team that's been shut out twice in 5 games? Big game for Mike Sims-Walker as the Jags are auctioning him off in a trade and I think Torry Holt sticks it to his old mates as well. Jags by 13.
N.Y. Giants (+3.5) at New Orleans -
Gabe - New York - The Giants have gotten to 5-0 by picking on the worst teams in the league. However, they didn't struggle and none of those games were ever close, except against the Cowboys. Now the G-Men are jumping into the teeth of their schedule. The Saints are coming off of a bye week, they're healthy, and they're at home. I think this game will be high-scoring and the Saints will win by 3.
Dave: New Orleans-Saints are coming off a bye, their D is much improved, and Eli's hurt. I know the Giants are great on the road, but Drew Brees has to have one of those "I'm Drew Motherfuckin' Brees!" games up his sleeve after being ordinary the last few weeks, right? Saints by 7.
Carolina (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
Gabe: Carolina - Easy. Tampa Bay stinks. Carolina has a bad record but they are still really talented on offense. Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith have a huge day. Carolina by double digits.
Dave: Carolina- Panthers by 10. I won't even waste your time with analysis.
Detroit (+14) at Green Bay
Gabe: Detroit - Division games are always hard fought. I think Kevin Smith is going to have a good game and be the difference...the difference between losing by 17 or losing by 10. I think Green Bay wins easy, but only by 10.
Dave: Green Bay-No Calvin Johnson, No Matt Stafford, Packers coming off a bye, at home and they need this one BAD. Time to show the world what you're made of, boys! Packers cover this thing barely against a scrappy Lions team, Pack by 17 and Nick Collins takes one to the house.
Philadelphia (-14) at Oakland
Gabe: Philadelphia - Oakland sucks. JaMarcus Russell completes about 6 passes a game. Philly will dominate this game in every way and they will win by at least 3 TD's.
Dave: Philadelphia - If two years ago, I would have told you Kevin Kolb, a guy whose best games came in a blowout loss and against one of the worst teams in history, would have been the best QB out of the 2007 Draft, how quickly would you drug test me? Eagles have this one over by halftime and Raiders fans try to find arsenic to slip in Al Davis' Milk of Magnesia.
Arizona (+3) at Seattle
Gabe: Arizona - I think this number is inflated because of the way Seattle dismantled Jacksonville last week. Seattle is going to have a let down. Arizona has too many weapons in their passing game. I'll take the Cardinals for the straight up win in my...wait for it...Upset Special!!!
Dave: Seattle- Let me tell you something about me: I'm like Dragnet, baby, I state the facts. Cardinals have one of the worst pass defenses in the country. Matt Hasselbeck has quietly thrown for 7 TDs in the two games he's started, both shutouts(Granted, it was St. Louis and Jacksonville, but whatever.) So while I don't think they shut Arizona out, I think this comes down to the better of two defenses(something I pointed out in my preview on sportstalkbuzz.com....Shameless plug), which is why I like Seattle by a touchdown.
Buffalo (-9.5) at N.Y. Jets
Gabe: Buffalo - I think the Jets are a little desperate right now. They started the season off red hot, but have cooled. I think they will win, but 9.5 is too big of a number. I think the Jets win by a touchdown.
Dave: Jets-9.5 isn't big enough against a team that could only muster a field goal against a Browns team that is tanking for Colt McCoy. Jets defense bullies Trent Edwards, T.O. starts clamoring for a trade by halftime, and Mark Sanchez goes back to get the ladies aroused. Jets by 14.
Tennessee (+9) at New England
Gabe: Tennessee - My reports of New England's greatness have been greatly exaggerated. Tennessee is much better than their 0-5 record shows. I keep waiting for them have a breakout game, and I think they finally will this week. I don't think they will win, but they will keep it close.
Dave: New England-If I would have told you last year that the Titans would go from 13-3 in the regular season to a crushing playoff loss to being back as Super Bowl favorites in '09 to having fans scream for Vince Young by Week 5, how fast would you drug test me? I can't take the Titans. Can't win with them! Can't do it! Pats shake off the rust on O, win by 10.
Chicago (-3.5) at Atlanta
Gabe: Atlanta - This is being touted as a match-up of two hot shot young quarterbacks. I think Atlanta got back on track with a big win last week and will continue that momentum. Atlanta by a touchdown.
Dave: Atlanta-Because, as a Packers fan, I'd like nothing more than a Bears loss, I'll take a Falcons team that just trounced a very good Niners team and the points. Cutler's due for a 4 INT game and while that's probably not coming here, I think we start to see warning signs.
Denver (-3.5) at San Diego
Gabe: San Diego - Denver has shown this year that to win you need to be good...and lucky. How do I say this delicately...I can't...they shot their load last week against New England. San Diego is rested, and at home. I think the Bolts win by a TD.
Dave: Denver-I think if I wrote a list of things I could have done in the two hours I spent writing a blog about how much the Broncos would suck this year, it would be less embarrassing to read than the actual blog about how much the Broncos would suck this year. Phillip Rivers is usually money on Monday nights and that almost gives me pause but the Broncos somehow unearthed a defense and I sincerely think Ladainian Tomlinson died in 2006 and nobody told us.
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