NBA Re-Cap

The NBA Playoffs start today and, before I get into how I think the first round will go, let's take a look back at my preseason picks(which were made on Twitter instead of here for time constraints) and how they stacked up to what will inevitably happen.

MVP

Preseason pick: Kevin Durant, F, Thunder The Reasoning: "Kid Dynamite" took a step into the NBA's elite last year in becoming the youngest scoring champion in NBA history. Because of that, the hype around Durant's Thunder was getting pretty thick as the new season neared. Obviously, for Durant to win this award, he would have had to outgun Kobe and LeBron. He did, winning his second straight scoring title. He just got outworked by another young pup who put his team on his back and took that infamous leap into the NBA's upper class.

Projected pick: Derrick Rose, G, Bulls Why: Rose didn't finish in the Top 5 in any of the major categories for guys at his position(PPG, assists, steals, FG%) but it's hard to imagine the Chicago Bulls having the NBA's best record and the East's top seed(in a suddenly loaded Eastern Conference, mind you) if D-Rose doesn't put the team on his back. Rose lived up to all the hype that surrounded him when he went #1 overall a couple years ago. He's been the team's best playmaker, crunchtime scorer and has had to deal with holding the team together while its two best big men(Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah) missed extended lengths of time on separate occasions. LeBron may have the flashier numbers and there's still a chance he tops Rose on reputation alone, but it would be a huge upset if the voters don't acknowledge Rose's breakout season with the MVP award he deserves.

Defensive Player of the Year

Preseason Pick: Josh Smith, F, Hawks

The Reasoning: Even with all the advanced metrics and new ways number-crunchers look at stats and a player's value, the DPOY award has always been given on reputation, which is why Dwight Howard should have been the pick back in October. Still, Josh Smith has a pretty decent reputation for being one of the NBA's best stoppers. The Hawks were an epic disappointment this year, however, and it looks like we're heading into next year with Smith filling the Carmelo role as the star at the forefront of trade talks that drag on for months. Smith finished in the Top 15 in blocks and top 25 in steals but the Hawks weren't a good enough defensive team for Smith's play to get any serious recognition.

Projected Pick: Dwight Howard, C, Magic Why: When in doubt, go with the easy pick. I'd like to see Chris Paul take this one both because I'm a Hornets fan and our players never win anything and because it would be nice if this award didn't go to the same guy every year. CP3 led the league in steals and was the best defender on a pretty good defensive team that managed to eek into the playoffs(where the Lakers will inevitably have their way with them). The award's going to Doomsday though, who didn't have the statistical season he's had in recent years but still managed to average two blocks per game and is still the league's most feared paint patroller. It's boring. It's predictable but until someone emerges as a bigger defensive presence than Dwight Howard, the award is his to lose every year.

Rookie of the Year

Preseason Pick: DeMarcus Cousins, F/C, Kings The Reasoning: In reality, you only went with someone other than John Wall or Blake Griffin because you either thought Wall's lack of shooting touch and the fact that he plays on miserable team would affect his candidacy or you thought Griffin would get hurt again. Clearly, those two were the leaders in the clubhouse. Passing on Griffin was understandable in October because nobody knew how he'd bounce back from missing all year, but passing on Wall(even though he won't win ROTY) is far less excusable. I went with Cousins because he had the potential for being a double-double machine on a team with no real inside presence. Instead, while Cousins was solid at times, the immaturity that plagued Cousins' draft stock showed at times while Wall and Griffin battled all season for top rookie honors.

Projected Pick: Blake Griffin, F, Clippers Why: The story lines coming into the season all revolved around the potential dominance of the Heat, a possible Lakers three-peat, the Carmelo saga and the Oklahoma City Thunder's sexiness as a sleeper. Nobody expected Blake Griffin, fresh off missing all of last season with a knee injury, to emerge as the most YouTube-worthy basketball player since Vince Carter. Griffin's dunks dominated SportsCenter for the better part of the first two months of the season, and became a staple of any Clippers highlight package as the season progressed. He suddenly made the league's laughingstock into a ticket-worthy draw. You had to see Blake Griffin and the Clippers in person now. Griffin was more than just a guy who made your mouth widen when we went above the rim. He went 22 and 12 in his first year, playing in all 82 games and forcing at least one or two conversations of "What if LeBron came to L.A. instead of Miami?" amongst fans and writers alike. The Clippers are now in the "young team with potential" driver seat that the Thunder vacated last season and Griffin is the reason why.

Before I get into the Finals pick, a couple awards I didn't weigh in on in October but will do so now.


Coach of the Year

My Pick: George Karl, Nuggets The Reasoning: You have to give Karl props for not only managing to handle the Carmelo Anthony trade saga well but actually making the Nuggets better AFTER they dealt Carmelo to the Knicks.....and he's doing it all while recovering from cancer treatment last year. Find me another team that could trade its best player for a couple of spare parts with potential and still be a legit contender when the playoffs start. Denver drew Oklahoma City in Round 1, which has immediately become the best playoff matchup of the opening round, but if the Nuggets pull off the upset, there's no telling how far they can go.

Projected Pick: Tom Thibodeau, Bulls Why: While there are some who thought the Bulls could be a championship contenders(cough cough....cough cough), there aren't many who thought Chicago would be THIS good. The reason for the Bulls' success has been their asphyxiating defense and the orchestrator of that is new head coach Tom Thibodeau. Thibby had a reputation for being a defensive maestro from his days as an assistant with Boston and San Antonio, and his impact in transforming the Bulls into an elite defensive team was immediate. Whether the Bulls fall under all this newfound pressure as the East's top dog remains to be seen, but a tip of the cap is deserved to the man who got them there.

Most Improved Player

My Pick: LaMarcus Aldridge, F, Blazers The Reasoning: Look, we all know Kevin Love has this thing locked up but the fact that Love will win it over Aldridge pretty much sums up the Blazers' big man's season. Aldridge was one of the biggest snubs in All-Star history, only making it after a number of injuries, despite carrying a Portland team that had its own injury woes. Aldridge averaged nearly 22 points and 9 boards on a team that saw Greg Oden go down(again!), Brandon Roy miss much of the season with knee troubles, and tried to breathe life into the careers of guys like Andre Miller and Marcus Camby. Yes, Love's 50-game double-double streak is more impressive and you can even make the case for D-Rose as Most Improved for his breakout year but Aldridge has been undervalued all season and I think this would be a nice consolation prize for spending the whole season overlooked.

Projected Pick: Kevin Love, F, Timberwolves Why: There was a point during Love's double-double streak where I thought he deserved MVP consideration because he was the only reason basketball was relevant in Minnesota and what he was doing with absolutely no help on the floor was nothing short of extraordinary. Still, the Timberwolves finished with the league's worst record but it wasn't because of anything Love wasn't doing. Love showed the skills that made him such a highly touted recruit when he signed on to play at UCLA and what made him so coveted as a lottery pick a few years ago. 51 straight double-doubles and a rebounding title from a guy nobody gave two thoughts about in October. It's hard to vote against that.

Now, the Finals pick........

Preseason Pick: Bulls over Thunder in 6(It's on Twitter....@DLSmooth82, if you don't believe me).

The Reasoning: To put it plain, it was hard to see a Heat team with this many different personalities go the distance with an inexperienced coach, the Celtics were old and the Magic were overrated. Now, I can't say I saw Derrick Rose's MVP season coming and I'd be lying to you if I said that part of the reason for the pick wasn't based on a mild belief they'd land 'Melo but a majority of my faith in Chicago was on thinking Tom Thibodeau would be a fine coach now that he finally got his shot to lead a team. Turns out I was right.

Out West, something never rubbed me the right way about this Lakers team and it still doesn't. The tread on Kobe's tires was/is bound to fade and lightning can't possibly strike twice with Ron Artest not going off the deep end for a second straight year. As for the other West contenders, San Antonio(like Boston) were old(eventhough they ended up winning the top seed), Denver was about to lose 'Melo(which would be a deathblow in most cases) and Dallas is....well, Dallas. I liked Oklahoma City's potential and the midseason trade for Kendrick Perkins(a great interior defender when healthy) was a master stroke. Bulls-Thunder may not be as sexy as Lakers-Heat or Lakers-Celtics but it was going to be a matchup between some of the league's best young talent, which was enough for me to co-sign it.

Projected Pick: Bulls over Thunder in 6 Why: Fuck it, I'm sticking with my pick. Two things stand in OKC's way of the Finals: a driven Lakers team that had their number last season and a hungry Nuggets team that wants to keep Cinderella's slipper nestled on its foot. If OKC makes it past those two teams in the first two rounds, they are two young, athletic and quick for the Spurs in the Conference Finals. As for the Bulls, unless Miami has a card up its sleeve it hasn't pulled out all season, I think they are a year and a new head coach away from living up to the hype. Beyond that, trading Perkins killed the Celtics and, while Orlando or New York could give Chicago a fight, they won't be able to keep up with the Bulls on both sides of the ball.

As for the actual Bulls-Thunder Finals, it would be a nice matchup of two up-and-coming point guards(Rose and Russell Westbrook), two great young defensive big men(Joakim Noah and Serge Ibaka) as well as a showcase of two of the five best players in the league(Rose and Durant). In the end, I think Chicago's D stifles Durant and Rose gets help from his numerous sidekicks to lock down the first Bulls title since the Jordan Era.