Fantasy Football Preview

The first NFL preseason game of the season is set to kick off Thursday which means, with the exception of those who couldn't resist the premature rush of football until the lockout actually ended, fantasy football drafts should be popping up like zits on a 14-year old girl's face sometime this month.

Now, I don't fancy myself as a fantasy "expert". Fantasy sports are as much a game of chance as they are a testament of knowledge. That being said, I have more fantasy league titles over the years than George Clooney has girlfriends. This being a sports blog and me being someone desperately looking for both something to write about and a chance to pat myself on the shoulder by serving up some early co-signings, I figure now is the chance to offer up some sound advice.

So, what I've decided to do is drop a few names of guys I'm either high on, low on or still finding myself on the fence on. Just as a head's up, the guys I'm "high" on are lower round guys whose production I believe will exceed their draft slot. The guys I'm "low" on are guys that will be taken early that I'm not quite sold on. I make this distinction because I know there will be one person who emails me asking why I'm not "high" on Adrian Peterson this year. The guys on the fence are players that have potential to be solid but have too many question marks to validate a complete co-sign.

Take my advice. Or don't. Life is about choices.

QUARTERBACKS

I'm High On........Josh Freeman, Buccaneers: Over the next few months, whether it be in my football previews or my weekly picks or anything NFL-related, you will notice a certian theme: I'm all in on the Bucs this year. I'm also riding shotgun on the Josh Freeman bandwagon. Freeman finished in the top 10 in touchdown passes last season, leading an offense that featured two rookie wideouts(Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn), an undrafted running back(LaGarrette Blount) and a veteran tight end who has a harder time staying healthy than Abe Vigoda(Kellen Winslow). This season, Freeman's third mind you, Josh and the boys are a year older and wiser, which means there's a chance the former K-State signal caller can top his 26 TD, 6 INT, 3, 451 yard 2010 campaign.

A couple other things helping Freeman's cause are this: His division doesn't really feature a tough defense. The Falcons don't have a pass rush beyond John Abraham. The Saints are improved on D and could give Freeman fits but that remains to be seen and the Panthers are, well, the Panthers. Translation: They suck. It also doesn't hurt that Freeman is 6'6, 248lbs. He's a big boy in the Ben Roethlisberger mold and has the quick feet to make some plays on the run. It also means his body can take the punishment of an NFL season, which is why I like him more than this next guy.......

I'm Low On........Michael Vick, Eagles: Mike Vick's comeback season last year was a great story and it will be great to watch on the big screen starring Idris Elba once Spike Lee acquires the rights to it. Still, I'm not ready to take Vick in the first round based off of one great season. For one, Vick's style of play is condusive to taking a lot of unneccesary hits and it doesn't help matters that he's with a head coach who loves to throw the ball. For those of you who can put two and two together, that means Vick is going to be dropping back a lot and making himself susceptible to a lot of guys trying to take his head off(in a division that features two of the best pass rushes in the league in New York and Dallas, I might add). The potential of Vick airing it out would be great if it wasn't offset by Vick's inability to stay healthy. As I mentioned in the Eagles piece a couple weeks ago, Vick has played a full season once and that was half a decade ago. If I'm investing a top pick into a quarterback, I want someone with a track record of being a little more sturdy.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying don't draft Mike Vick. But as it stands right now, I have Vick ranked seventh in my list of fantasy quarterbacks. I'm not touching him in the first three rounds. There aren't enough viable options at QB to roll the dice on Vick not getting hurt and there are far more valuable players at the top of the draft I'd rather have.

I'm High On........Tarvaris Jackson, Seahawks: Wait a minute! Hear me out! Obviously, I wouldn't try to coerse you into taking Tarvaris Jackson as your starting QB. However, take a long look at T-Jax's new situation in Seattle. The Seahawks used their two top picks to revamp the offensive line with tackle James Carpenter(who did a lot of run blocking for Heisman winner Mark Ingram at Alabama) and guard John Moffitt(who played at Wisconsin and we all know they like to pound the rock in the Big Ten) just a year after using a Top 10 pick on All-American tackle Russell Okung. On top of that, they signed former #2 overall pick Robert Gallery away from Oakland and reunited him with former coach Tom Cable. Behind that fortress of an O-Line, Jackson will be throwing to former Viking teammate Sidney Rice as well as fellow wideouts Golden Tate and Mike Williams. Still not impressed? How about the tight end tandem of John Carlson and another former Raider Pro Bowler, Zach Miller? Rice, Tate, BMW, Miller and Carlson in a division that features the Rams, Cardinals and Niners? That's not worth a last round flier? Would you really not take a chance on Jackson putting up at least 20 TD passes with THIS arsenal around him? Jackson's always had the arm and speed to be a poor man's Mike Vick. He just struggles with accuracy and never really had the backing behind him to be given a real chance. With only Charlie Whitehurst behind him, Jackson has that chance. He could make the most of it. So should you.

I'm Low On......Peyton Manning, Colts: Blasphemy, right? Here's something else that might make you test my sanity: I don't Peyton in my Top 5 of quaterbacks this year. Before you write me off, hear me out. Manning's coming off two neck surgeries this offseason. TWO! "But, Dave, what about the numbers he put up coming off knee surgery a couple years ago?". Duely noted. Lightning doesn't strike the same place twice. Eventually, Father Time kicks in and the rust on the iron suits of these gladiators. We saw it with Tom Brady. We saw it with Brett Favre. The injury bug will get to Peyton Manning eventually, and what better year for it to happen than this year? Besides the two neck surgeries, which should scare you more than an immobile quarterback getting his knee operated on, Manning will be asking two asking two rookies to watch his back at left and right tackle. Now, I liked Anthony Castonzo coming out of BC but the lockout has reduced any optimism of a rookie being able to come in and having an immediate impact. The same goes for Ben Ijalana, the second rounder projected to start at right tackle or guard this season. Manning has had good fortune with the guys watching his blind side from Tarik Glenn to Tony Ugoh to Charlie Johnson.

The latter flew the coup to Minnesota, leaving the left tackle job to Castonzo. With the way the Colts pass the ball(mainly because of Peyton but also because they can't run the ball), you wanna trust Manning staying upright with a rookie having to adjust to the pros in three weeks before the regular season kicks off with no OTAs or anything? That remains to be seen. What about Manning's weapons though? Sure, he's made due with no-names before but look at this cast of characters. Reggie Wayne is going to be solid, because he's Reggie Wayne and he's playing for a new contract. The others though? Pierre Garcon took a step back last year. Austin Collie is nursing a season that saw him recieve about 65 concussions. Tight end Dallas Clark is coming off a season-ending injury. Anthony Gonzalez can't stay healthy. These are the guys expecting to bail out the "least sackable quarterback in the game" while he's relying on guys like Castonzo and Ijalana to watch his back.

Like with Vick, I'm not saying don't draft Peyton. He's had 4,000 yards every season but two since 1998. He's a machine, but machines inevitably break down. He's not super human. Like Vick, I'm not touching Peyton in the first three rounds, maybe not even in the first four. Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Rivers, Schaub.....in that order, would all be better picks than Manning this year. I've bet against Peyton and been wrong before but Manning can't spit in the face of fate forever.

On The Fence: Kevin Kolb, Cardinals: I never bought into Kevin Kolb as the savior in Philadelphia and I'm still not that sold on him in the desert. Kolb's career numbers in Philly(2,032 yards, 11 TDs, 14 INTs in 20 games) weren't exactly awe-inspiring. Now, he's in Arizona, playing behind an offensive line that gave up the third most sacks in the league and who still have yet to find a proven runner to carry the ground game. Those are the negatives.

These are the positives. Kolb gets to play pitch-and-catch with one of the game's best wideouts in Larry Fitzgerald, who still managed to put up solid numbers despite hauling in passes from guys like Max Hall and John Skelton. Kolb's an upgrade over those guys, obviously, so stock in Fitz should go up too. Kolb also gets to feast on the worst division in football, the NFC West. Seattle, San Francisco, St. Louis.....there isn't a dominant defense in the bunch. The only downside is Kolb can't play against his own defense, which might be the worst of the four.

The bottom line is this: Kolb comes to Arizona with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove after going from McNabb's heir apparent to Vick's caddy. But after a productive career at the University of Houston, he's proven to be nothing more than a checkdown champion, a dink and dunk specialist of Rich Gannon preportions. Granted, that style got Gannon and MVP once, but times have changed since 2002. Playing behind this shaky offensive line, it remains to be seen if Kolb can have time to find Fitzgerald deep, especially since Fitzgerald doesn't have Steve Breaston or Anquan Boldin anymore on the other side to take pressure off him. For Kolb to be everything Andy Reid thought he was when he took him in the 2nd round of '07, everything has to fall into place with his new squad, which is why Kolb's worth a flier as a poor man's Kurt Warner but carries the caution of a Matt Leinart 2.0.

RUNNING BACKS

I'm High On........Mike Tolbert, Chargers: Tolbert's coming off a season where he racked up 735 yards and 11 TD's in relief for San Diego last season after Ryan Mathews failed to amaze in his rookie season. Well, that same Ryan Mathews failed his conditioning test and, making matters better for Tolbert, Darren Sproles is now a New Orleans Saint. That pretty much makes the starting job Tolbert's to lose and the former fullback proved in his 182 carries last season that he can handle the job.

Now, Norv Turner came out recently and declared he's going with a two running back approach with Tolbert and Mathews, but I still remain undeterred in co-signing Tolbert and here's why: In a lot of ways, he's this year's Peyton Hillis. He's a big guy(5'9, 243), which means he won't sitting on the bench when it's goal-line time and, with only Mathews in his way, there's not much standing between him and a career year. The passing attack led by Phillip Rivers will make opposing defenses respect the run and AFC West is littered with terrible run defenses that Tolbert will get to feast on six times this season. Is he a fantasy starter right off the back? Maybe not, because the team still has a lot invested in Mathews, but as a late-round, injury insurance backup type? He's definitely worth a shot. If Tolbert's getting nearly 800 yards on half a season's worth of carries, imagine what he can do with a full year as "The Man".

I'm Low On......LeSean McCoy, Eagles: It seems like I throw a lot of hatred Philly's way but I assure you I have no bias against "The City of Brotherly Love". I just have a hard time buying a scat back who barely eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark as someone worthy of a first round pick as many have made him in mocks I've seen. I was already skeptic of Shady's potential in Year 2 as the Eagles' lead back before the team signed Ronnie Brown. With Brown in the fold, that means McCoy is relegated to working between the 20's and watching Brown vulture away his goal-line touches. It doesn't help that the Eagles throw the ball somewhere between 60-65% of the time and play in a defense stout against the run(well, except Washington).

McCoy could be a newer, younger version of Brian Westbrook, the guy he was drafted to replace and whose style he practically emulates, and his high draft slot may be more of a projection from those who think McCoy will duplicate what his successor did. I'm not sold yet. I'm not ready to use a first on McCoy and, really, I'm not ready to make him my #1 back. You can talk me into taking him at the top of the 2nd if you're pairing him with a Rashard Mendenhall or Frank Gore in the first, but Brown's presence and Philly's style of play make him a shaky top choice to me.

I'm High On.....Tim Hightower, Redskins: Fantasy Rule #1 has always been to remain cautious of drafting a Mike Shanahan running back because Shanny likes to mix up his rushers like Vin Baker likes to mix his drinks. Truth be told, Washington's lead back could be Ryan Torain. It could be Roy Helu. It could be Evan Royster. Hell, Shanahan could even bring Clinton Portis back. Hightower has the most potential of the group because his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield makes him more of an every-down back than, say, Torain(who is projected to be the leader in the clubhouse for the starting gig). Let's face it, if Shanahan and the 'Skins had faith that Torain was their guy, they would have traded for Hightower when they already drafted Helu and Royster.

Talent will eventually win out and that means the job is Hightower's to lose. The knock on Hightower is he has an acute case of fumblitis which, as we saw with Shanahan disciple Gary Kubiak and RB Steve Slaton in Houston, is a quick way to land in the doghouse. Recently, the former Richmond Spider got a vigourous co-sign from OC Kyle Shanahan, which means we could see Hightower as the Week 1 starter at RB. If so, Hightower's worth a late-round flier simply based on the vaunted history of the Shanahan system and its productivity with the run game and also because Timmy will be playing with a chip on his shoulder after being exiled from the desert. Take a chance on Timmy.....but be mindful of your lineup before kickoff.

I'm Low On......Peyton Hillis, Browns: Two words.....Madden Curse.

On The Fence: LaGarrette Blount, Bucs - Blount is going to get his share of love based on last season when he went from black-balled malcontent to undrafted feel-good story who led all rookie backs in rushing. Now that he opens the season as the top dog, the sky is the limited for the former erstwhile Oregon Duck. My concern isn't whether I think Blount will be good. With his size and speed and with Cadillac Williams gone, I think he'll be fine. My issue is he's a modern day Rudi Johnson: a one-dimensional, two-down power back. LaGarrette struggled with pass-blocking last season and, given that Tampa is going to want to air it out more with the continued development of Josh Freeman as a passer and the extreme caution the team will have in protecting Freeman because of what his health means to their success, Blount is going to find himself on the sidelines on third down. That doesn't mean he won't rack up big numbers as the Bucs' only real option at running back. It just means his growth will be stunted by the team's lack of faith in him on passing downs which, thus, should stunt your faith in investing too high a pick for him.

WIDE RECEIVERS

I'm High On.......Chad Ochocinco, Patriots: The transformation in Cincinnati from a young, promising team with a promising passing attack to a band of miscreants hell-bent on slowing down opponents with a ground-and-pound running game has left Chad Ochocinco for dead the last couple of years. Ochocinco went from averaging 90 catches a season from 2003 to 2007, to racking up 72 and 53 receptions, respectively, in the past two seasons.

Now, he finds himself in Beantown motivated to prove himself with the Patriots and catching passes from Tom Brady(who resurrected Randy Moss' career a few years ago). Chad's always been a great route runner with excellent hands and it's no secret New England likes to throw the ball. With Wes Welker and Deion Branch also on the roster and Brady's tendency to spread it out, it might be far-fetched to expect Chad's numbers to equal those of Moss' first few years in New England. However, ESPN currently has the former Bengal listed 35th in its WR rankings behind guys like Mike Thomas, Johnny Knox and what's left of Austin Collie. I'd take Ocho over all three of them. You're going to want to bench him for those two games against the Jets when he finds himself stranded on Revis Island but Ochocinco has more value this year than he's had in in the last couple of seasons. I'm banking on a comeback year for 85.

I'm Low On......Kenny Britt, Titans: Oh, how it hurts to slander a former Scarlet Knight. As great as watching Britt emerge as Tennessee's top receiving threat was for a Rutgers fan like myself, there's no escaping this one undeniable flaw with Kenny B: He's a fucking knucklehead. During the lockout, Britt did his damnedest to be the threat to the U.S. crime rate that Ray Lewis warned about. From assualt charges to speeding tickets to DUIs to any number of the litany of scrapes with the law Britt found himself in these recent months, Britt has become Pacman Jones 2.0.

Look, you can't just find guys 6'3, 215 pounds with Britt's kind of speed, athleticism and hands, but the man has million dollar talent and a ten cent brain between his ears. Rolling the dice on Kenny Britt is a hell of a gamble. For one, you're hoping the team or Roger Goodell doesn't strike down on Britt for his indescretions. Second, you're hoping he learns from his mistakes. Third, there are reports that new QB Matt Hasselbeck is struggling to learn the new offense, so you're, thus, hoping that he can build a rapport with his wayward top target by the start of the season. Lastly, you're hoping he can stay healthy. Last season, Britt missed four games with an Achilles' injury and since he's spent more time this offseason in lockout than in a gym, you wonder if his body is physically prepared for a grueling season.

Britt is the Titans' best, and probably only, option in the passing game and that alone is going to warrant a look. However, ESPN has Britt 20th among fantasy wideouts, ahead the likes of Sidney Rice(who I like a lot this year), Malcolm Floyd and the aforementioned Chad Ochocinco. He's the quintessential high-risk, high-reward guy but there are far too many red flags to take Britt unless you can get him on the cheap.

I'm High On......Roy Williams, Bears: Yes, I'm putting stock in Ol' Stonehands. A couple of things to consider before poo-pooing this choice. Williams' lone Pro Bowl season came in Detroit when his offensive coordinator was former Rams guru Mike Martz. Roy's new OC in Chi-Town? You guessed it: Mike Martz. Second, have you seen the Bears' other wideouts? Johnny Knox and Devin Hester are nice, speedy, young wideouts but they aren't #1 options. Jay Cutler isn't going to have much time to throw, so his first choice is not going to be sit in the pocket and wait for Devin Hester on a go route. It's going to be find Roy on a curl or a quick slant. Williams is the more proven route runner and his size(6'4, 214) makes him valuable in the red zone, especially with Greg Olsen gone.

Sure, Williams' hands of concrete would scare off many but Roy wasn't always football's version of Roberto Duran. Chicago's giving him a fresh start and another crack at being the man. At the tail end of the draft, you should, too.

I'm Low On.......Plaxico Burress, Jets: Here's a bet you can take to the bank: People are going to take a chance on Plax thinking he has some of that Mike Vick prison magic in him. He doesn't. For those with short memories, it took Vick nearly two years to regain his form after signing with Philadelphia out of prison. On top of that, Vick was 29 when he signed and had speed BEFORE going away. Burress has never had speed and, making matters worse, he just turned 34. How much faith you put in a 34-year old possession receiver who hasn't ran a route or taken a hit in two years to come back and be a formidable option again? I know we want to believe Plax is the latest feel-good, comeback story but I'm taking a "believe it when I see it" approach with the former Giant. At 6'6, 230, he has value as a red zone target for Mark Sanchez but, like with most ex-cons, you're going to want to see how he adjusts to life outside the box before you invest your faith in him.

I'm High On......Jacoby Ford, Raiders: At 5'9 185lbs, Ford isn't much to get excited about......until you see the kid run. Ford's 25 catches for 470 yards and 2 scores in his rookie campaign last year is pedestrian at best but it's also a start to something. Take a long look at Oakland's depth chart at wide receiver. Jason Campbell has to throw to SOMEBODY, right? Darrius Heyward-Bey has bust written all over him. Louis Murphy can't stay healthy. Tight end Zach Miller is gone. Lost in all that mediocrity is the reports that Ford's worked his way into the lineup as Oakland's #2 wideout. Does that mean he's a viable fantasy starter? Not really, but he's a speedy home-run threat who returned three kicks back for touchdowns last year. Could he be a poor man's Devin Hester? Absolutely. In a league that pays homage to returners, Ford's definitely worth a sniff and what do you possibly lose if he manages to become a better receiver while getting more reps in the starting lineup?

I'm Low On.......ALL ROOKIE WIDEOUTS: I mentioned this earlier and I'll repeat it again: The lockout did rookies no favors this season and the lack of time to get assimilated puts every rook behind the eight ball. Sure, in keeper leagues, you're gonna want A.J. Green or Julio Jones going forward, but this season? Color me skeptical. Last year, with a full season of workouts, OTAs, training camp and preseason, no rookie wideout eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark and the only first-year guy to make a dent was Mike Williams. That's WITH a full season of practices. Green, in particular, is not only having to learn the new offense in Cincy but having to catch passes from a fellow rookie in Andy Dalton. Julio Jones might be lighting it up in camp but it remains to be seen what he can do when the games count. Rookie wideouts who get drafted high in the actual draft tend to get drafted higher than they need to be in fantasy draft. With so many behind the learning curve, this should be the year that trend gets bucked. Like with Plaxico, rookie wideouts need a wait-and-see approach before diving in this year. We saw Mike Williams hit the rookie wall in the second half last year. What can we really expect from noobs who waited in limbo all summer?

ON THE FENCE: Michael Crabtree, 49ers - Whether it's a contract holdout or an injury, Michael Crabtree just can't stop missing training camp. The former Texas Tech standout showed promise after a rookie campaign two years ago that saw him come in six weeks into the regular season and catch 48 passes for 625 yards and two scores despite barely knowing the offense. That lead some to believe he'd bust loose over the course of a full season in Year 2. Instead, his numbers last season were only marginally better than his rookie stats, scoring 6 touchdowns but only catching 7 more passes for just under 120 more yards. This season, it took Crabtree all of a week to suffer a foot injury that will have him out for the entire preseason.

Crabtree clearly could use the extra time to learn new head coach Jim Harbaugh's scheme but his prior track record of being able to play on the fly somewhat lessens the blow of yet another lost preseason. Another positive note is Crab finally has a tag team partner to take pressure off him: new acquisition Braylon Edwards. The Edwards-Crabtree-Vernon Davis triumvant would give me a reason to feel good about Alex Smith's chances of breaking out if he wasn't, well, Alex Smith. Crabtree is supposed to be back by Week 1 and the old NFL theory is that young wideouts make their biggest breakthrough in Year 3. With Edwards on the other side, Davis over the middle and defenses needing to respect Frank Gore running the ball, everything is lined up for Crabtree to have the year many have anticipated, especially in this division. Still, he's never been one to avoid the injury bug and the last two years have been as much a story of false hope as a reason for optimism.

TIGHT ENDS

I'm High On......Greg Olsen, Panthers: When Greg Olsen was drafted out of "The U" five years ago, it was understood that, while talented, he wasn't on par with his Hurricane tight end successors in Jeremy Shockey and Kellen Winslow Jr. Olsen hasn't been a slouch either, just under-utilized. Olsen's best year came in 2009 when he reeled in 60 passes for 612 yards for 6 scores. The next season, the Bears hired Mike Martz to run the O and Martz cares as much about using the tight end as Casey Anthony cares about child care. The result was Olsen's worst season since his rookie campaign. However, things are looking up for Greg as he finds himself in Carolina now after a offseason trade. The Panthers' new system features a lot of two-tight end looks, which gives reasons for optimism to like Olsen this year even with the presence of another big name at his position. Why be so optimistic, you ask? Because that other big name is one of Olsen's aforementioned successors, Jeremy Shockey. Shockey has always been a supremely talented tight end and there's reasons to like him a lot this year as well, but the kid hasn't met an injury he couldn't sustain. In 10 seasons, Shockey's never played a full season and there's no reason to think that streak stops this year. That means more looks for Olsen.

Another sign pointing towards more work for Olsen: The Panthers, at some point, will be unveiling #1 overall pick Cam Newton as their guy at QB. Who's a rookie QB's best friend? The tight end. Even if Newton doesn't start right away, incumbant Jimmy Clausen is bound to show Olsen some love with Steve Smith recovering from a broken finger and David Gettis done for the year with a torn ACL. Olsen's not the speediest of tight ends so fantasizing about some kind of Mark Bavarro/Antonio Gates long, bruising, punishing touchdown runs will be just that, a fantasy, but he's a big target with reliable hands, a chip on his shoulder and no healthy competition in front of him. Those ingredients make for something very dangerous.

I'm Low On.........Owen Daniels, Texans: I never really understood the hype behind Owen Daniels. Yes, he's a solid tight end in a pass-first offense but he hasn't scored more than five touchdowns since his rookie year in 2006 and he's been hurt for the better part of the last two seasons. Now, I'm supposed to believe he's a top five fantasy tight end, ESPN? Based on what exactly? At 6'3, Daniels has always been a bit short for the position and you have to think that the red zone looks that used to be Daniels now belong to either the more reliable Andre Johnson or last year's breakout star, RB Arian Foster. Daniels is a nice option and, given the lack of depth at tight end, definitely worth starting but I have my doubts of even putting him in my top 10. If I'm taking a chance on an injury-prone tight end who used to be viable option, I like Todd Heap returning home in Arizona. Hell, I'd rather wait on a Heath Miller or Dustin Keller or take a chance on Jermaine Gresham or Tony Moeaki. I think this is Daniels' last season of relevance and, if I had to place a bet, I don't think it will be a good one.

ON THE FENCE: Todd Heap, Cardinals - Like Daniels, it's tough to get excited for someone with a well-documented injury history like Todd Heap's. Granted, Heap's played a full 16 in two of the last three years and he did find the end zone six times in 2009 for Baltimore, but the frequency of him getting hurt scares me from being too thrilled with his new digs in Arizona. Heap's going from a situation where he got a few looks in a smashmouth offense with the Ravens to probably being the #2 option with the Cardinals. Helping Heap's cause is new QB Kevin Kolb's infamy as a checkdown champion. Heap is going to see a lot of action his way because of Kolb's happy feet and quick fire arm and he'll be a smash hit after an illustrious career at Arizona State. The key is Heap staying healthy, which is something he has the tendency to struggle with. He'll also lose red zone looks to acrobat Larry Fitzgerald and bruising back Beanie Wells. Still, beyond Fitzy, Arizona doesn't have many other options and if Heap can stay on the field(BIG IF), he's a decent sleeper playing in familiar territory.

SOME SIDE NOTES:

*I didn't write about Defenses/Special Teams because, with the exception of top three or four, they are mostly the same and they really hold little significance to a fantasy outcome. I've lost quite a few leagues with Baltimore or Pittsburgh as my defense and won a few with teams like San Francisco. Is it better to have the Ravens than, say, the Lions as your team D? Yes. Does it matter that much? No. Like kickers, they are bonus points holding down a starting slot. If I need to tell you which defense is good and which isn't, you probably shouldn't be playing fantasy football.

*A couple of situations that intrigue me a little but not enough to require a full write-up. If Willis McGahee can stay healthy, I like his chances to return to form under John Fox in Denver. Willis was always a good back. He just happened to get hurt in Baltimore and then got Wally Pipp'd by Ray Rice. With another chance and only Knowshon Moreno in front of him, he's worth a look. I also love, love, LOVE Lee Evans in Baltimore now. The Ravens don't have a speed receiver besides rookie Torrey Smith and Smith was underwhelming in his preseason debut as he still learns the offense. Evans could be huge as Flacco's #2 behind Anquan Boldin. Packers tight end Jermichael Finley narrowly missed my "On The Fence" spot. We all thought he would break out last year and he got hurt. The stats aren't really there to warrent taking him high and he's competing for looks in an offense that's four wide receivers deep, but if he drops, take him.

*As much as it pains me to say it, I like Tim Tebow this year. Not as a fantasy starter, obviously, but I think the Broncos want him to be their guy and that really sucks for Kyle Orton, who deserves to be the man somewhere, too. Tebow's a great leader, can make plays with his feet and he's tough to bring down. The throwing motion sucks and he'll never be a 300 yards and 4 scores, Daunte Culpepper-type, but I think he can be decent if given the reigns.

*Because my friend Carlos might read this, I'll repeat this once again: Mike Tolbert is going to be nasty this year. Better than Shonn Greene. Better than Beanie Wells. Better than Felix Jones. He's a somewhere between "Lawfirm" Benjarvus Green-Ellis and Peyton Hillis. Consider yourself warned.

*Reggie Bush is the starting running back in Miami and only rookie Daniel Thomas stands in his way. Could be interesting for Mr. 4-to-6 weeks.