Pryor Engagement

Monday afternoon, the NFL will kick off it's usually lackluster Supplemental Draft. However, let's call tomorrow's events by what it actually is: Terrelle Pryor's 2nd Signing Day. Much like three years ago, when Pryor was a Vince Young clone and the top high school recruit out of Jeanette, Pennsylvania, Pryor will sit back and watch the desperation in the eyes staring down the 6'5, 233lb quarterback as their meal ticket.

By now, you've probably heard of Pryor's story. After a semi-successful career at Ohio State, Pryor got pinched along with several other Buckeyes for selling off school memorabilia in exchange for free tattoos and other perks. Pryor and company were set to be suspended for the first five games of the 2011 season. Then, a more intense investigation began which lead to the termination of longtime coach Jim Tressel and Pryor, feeling the hot water rising under his feet, decided to high-tail it out of Columbus and pleaded his case to Commissioner Goodell to let him into the supplemental draft. Goodell granted Pryor's wish last week and 17 teams came out Saturday afternoon to watch Pryor's Pro Day, where he flashed his 4.4 speed and big arm but also the inaccuracy that still scares GMs.

The question now becomes: Where will Pryor land? In an effort to give my best educated guess as to where Terrelle will land, I did my own homework. I took all 32 teams and eliminated 24 of them based on one of three requisites: The team is expected to be a strong contender in the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes next April, the team drafted a quarterback in the last three years or the team lacks a proven backup. That left me with eight teams, three of which I think are more dark horses than surefire candidates. Before I get into who made the cut, I'll delve into my three reasons for elimination and the teams that won't be having Terrelle Pryor jerseys stitched up anytime soon.

1. The Andrew Luck Sweepstakes: Normally, teams that lack a franchise QB would be the most common applicants for someone of Pryor's potential. The only problem with that this year is that Stanford QB and Heisman Trophy favorite Andrew Luck is on top of draft boards barring a senior season that leads to his arm falling off. Sure, Pryor will cost you a lower draft pick tomorrow than Luck will in late-April but you're also getting a lower caliber QB. For all of Pryor's size and speed, he struggles with accuracy, which is kind of like having a Dodge Viper but no steering wheel. Luck has been heralded by some as the best QB prospect in decades, someone comparable to Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. If your a team that isn't expected to contend, why clog a potential roster spot with Pryor when you have a shot at Luck? Here's who fit this category:

*Buffalo Bills

*Miami Dolphins

*Oakland Raiders(though, in a weird state of affairs, the Raiders could actually win the AFC West. Just depends which Raiders team shows up)

*Washington Redskins

*Seattle Seahawks(they, too, could win their division, too, since they managed to do so with Charlie Whitehurst and a 7-9 record last year)

2. Team Drafted A QB Last Three Years: In theory, if you're using a 2012 pick on Pryor, you'd like for him to be more than a career backup. Anybody can hold a clipboard. Look at what the Ravens did. They let Marc Bulger retire and gave his backup job to 7th round pick Tyrod Taylor, who some teams wanted to move from QB to WR. Teams that have already pegged their franchise QB in the last few years aren't going to roll the dice on Pryor. Now, the Falcons made this category, eventhough they drafted Matt Ryan FOUR years ago...AND, technically, they have a proven backup in Chris Redman(yeah, I chuckled when I wrote that, too) so they could have found themselves in the "Dark Horse" section had they actually sent someone to attend Pryor's Pro Day. I'm going to go on a limb and say the Falcons are set at QB. Anyway, here's the rest of the group joining Atlanta on the X'd out list.

*New York Jets(Mark Sanchez)

*New England Patriots(Ryan Mallett)

*Tennessee Titans(Jake Locker)

*Jacksonville Jaguars(Blaine Gabbert)

*Denver Broncos(Tim Tebow....plus they traded for Brady Quinn, who may be the best QB in preseason thus far)

*Cleveland Browns(Colt McCoy)

*Cincinnati Bengals(Andy Dalton)

*Detroit Lions(Matt Stafford....though Pryor wouldn't be bad Stafford insurance if the injuries cut Stafford's career short)

*Minnesota Vikings(Christian Ponder)

*San Francisco 49ers(Colin Kaeparnick)

*St. Louis Rams(Sam Bradford)

*Tampa Bay Bucs(Josh Freeman)

*Carolina Panthers(Cam Newton and Jimmy Clausen)

(The Arizona Cardinals could fit here, too, with their trade for Kevin Kolb and the drafting of Max Hall and John Skelton last year. However, because of the latter part of that sentence, they are prime candidates for reason # 3)

3. No Proven Backup: Your best case scenario if you're drafting Pryor is that he's your #3 in Year 1, possibly your backup in Year 2 and, at least, starter-ready in Year 3. Think of how far behind the curve people believe Cam Newton is before he got to Carolina. Pryor's father behind than Cam, and he'll miss the first five games of the season due to a suspension. You don't want to be in a situation where Pryor can get in the game this year because he still has a lot to learn and you don't want to wreck a young QB's confidence early by throwing him to the wolves too soon. Need proof? See: Carr, David or Couch, Tim. Here's the last cuts before we get into our contenders.

*Houston Texans(Matt Leinart? You want Terrelle learning from him?)

*Kansas City Chiefs(Ricky Stanzi and Tyler Palko, anyone?)

*Baltimore Ravens(Tyrod Taylor. Though, if they had kept Bulger or signed a vet, Baltimore would be a great fit for Pryor. Who better to whip a snot-nosed kid into shape than Ray Lewis?)

*New York Giants(Sage Rosenfals and the aforementioned David Carr. Gabe has a better chance of being Eli's backup than these two)

*Arizona Cardinals(Skelton and Hall....you'd have to think if they were promising, the Cards wouldn't have given $60 mil to Kolb)

*New Orleans Saints(Chase Daniel)

(The Dolphins, Jets and Bucs could have all made this spot if they hadn't already made the 2nd one, which makes them even more of a poor fit for Pryor.)

Now, onto the contenders. We'll start with the teams I don't think will take Pryor but would be a good fit if they did.

DARK HORSES

1. Indianapolis Colts: Sure, they fit into Tier 3 because Curtis Painter is far from a proven backup but who better to learn from as an aspiring young NFL QB than Peyton Manning? If you're a Colts fan and you're not scared about Manning's recovery from neck surgery, I want a piece of what you're smoking. Even owner Jim Irsay seemed nervous in his tweets over the weekend when he asked Colts Nation for suggestions on veteran QBs to sign in the event Peyton isn't up to snuff by Week 1. Irsay also said he wasn't interested in Pryor, which is funny because both he and his director of player operations Kevin Colbert were in attendance for Pryor's workout. So, either Irsay didn't see something he liked or he's providing a smokescreen using the embers of the mind-altering hallucinogens Manning-optimists are blazing up.



In a weird way, the Colts could fit into Tier 1. Let's say Manning's neck injury has him miss a significant portion of 2011. Do you have faith that a Colts team with no running game, a shaky offensive line and Curtis Painter at QB can win more than 4 games in a improved AFC South? On top of that, given Peyton's age and newfound injury history, wouldn't it benefit the Colts to punt this season and use the top pick on Luck? Remember back in 1997, when a San Antonio Spurs team with a in-his-prime David Robinson sank to the league's worst record when "The Admiral" missed most of the season with a bad back? Next year, they get Tim Duncan #1 overall, send Robinson home a champion that season and win three more rings in the process. Imagine passing the torch from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck, Colts fans? Now go punch Peyton repeatedly in the neck.

Kidding aside, Manning will do his damnedest to play all 16 because of what the consecutive games streak means to him, which means the Colts will be, at least, an 8 win team even if Manning's playing at 75%. Still, the team needs to plan for Manning's heir apparent much like the Patriots potentially did with Ryan Mallett. Pryor has Day 1 talent at a Day 2 price. Irsay might say he's not interested and he very well might not be, but he has a good chance at landing Peyton's successor here because, if he believes Painter is it, he's partaking in the same stuff the Manning optimists are.

2. Green Bay Packers: Green Bay is pretty much set at QB with reigning Super Bowl MVP and potential regular season MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers entrenched at starter and a backup in Matt Flynn, who could probably start for half the teams in Tier 1 right now. Still, because Flynn's stock is rising and, thus, the possibility of him getting dealt next season looms, the Packers could take a chance on a guy like Pryor. Like in Indy, Pryor would be learning from one of the game's best in A-Rod. With Flynn set as the #2, Pryor doesn't have to worry about seeing action unless another bad string of injuries like what Green Bay dealt with last year strikes again this season. On top of that, if Pryor were to see the field in Year 2, he'd have a receiving core that's four wideouts deep with Greg Jennings, James Jones, Donald Driver and Jordy Nelson and has a good young tight end in Jermichael Finley. Nevin Shapiro couldn't buy that kind of talent for Pryor in college. The problem, of course, is there's no way Pryor would ever start in Title Town unless Rodgers went down. Rodgers is 27 and coming off three seasons of nearly 4,000 yards. He's one of the 2 or 3 best QB's in the world. Unless he retires early, Pryor's going to be his caddy for a while. That could benefit Pryor, much like sitting on the bench did for A-Rod, but it would be a waste of a pick for a Packers team that might need help elsewhere.

3. Chicago Bears: I couldn't help but look over the Bears' depth chart and become intrigued at the thought of Chicago reeling in Pryor. Their top two QBs right now are Jay Cutler and Caleb Hanie. The team traded a boatload to make Cutler their guy and, at 28, he's not exactly going out to pasture soon. Hanie, meanwhile, showed his mettle in relief for Cutler in the NFC Championship and, while he's by no means starter-quality, he's at least a capable backup. That means Pryor could easily be the Bears #3 in Year 1. Here's where things get interesting. Cutler is not exactly a fan favorite in the Windy City after a couple ho-hum seasons and the fact he pussed out of the biggest game of their season in January. It's make or break for Cutler this year. Plus, given how bad the Bears' offensive line is, Pryor could be starting his first game when he comes back from suspension in Week 6. Pryor's mobility definitely gives him an advantage over Cutler and Hanie when neutralizing the team's poor pass protection, but that QB situation is too unstable to be an optimal landing spot for Pryor. One bad season could find Cutler, Hanie and coach Lovie Smith out of the door by year's end, leaving Pryor in limbo under a new regime.

THE FAVORITES(from least likely to most)

4. San Diego Chargers: Obviously, the Chargers aren't in the market for a QB with Phillip Rivers as their guy. However, Rivers will be 30 in December and backup Billy Volek is 35. Needless to say, an infusion of youth is necessary. Pryor could sit the bench in Year 1, take over for Volek in Year 2 and continue to wait it out behind Rivers as Phillip gets older. Pryor's speed would be a nice change of pace by comparison to the statuesque Rivers, albeit it would come with a severe dip in terms of accuracy. Pryor probably wouldn't start for San Diego anytime soon but the fact that Charger suits were at Pryor's Pro Day means they have some interest and, certainly, there's a spot for him in San Diego. Do I think they pull the cord? Probably not. Given who's left on this list, it's hard to see A.J. Smith being more aggressive than the heavy hitters he has in front of him, but that's not to say he won't give it a shot.

3. Dallas Cowboys: The team that took chances on guys like Demitrius Underwood, Michael Irvin, Terrell Owens, Ryan Leaf, Pac-Man Jones, Quincy Carter and Keyshawn Johnson has to be in the mix for the much-ballyhooed former Buckeye. The triumvirate for "America's Team", as it stands, is Tony Romo, Jon Kitna and Stephen McGee. At 38, Kitna's probably playing after this year and Romo, at 31, has to know that his window for winning a title(more because of pressure than age) is coming to a close as will his time in Big D. The team likes McGee but he doesn't have the upside that Pryor possesses. Pryor is the big name and the Cowboys have a long history under Jerry Jones of going after guys whose star power is befitting of that huge star at midfield. In Dallas, Pryor could be groomed by Romo and Kitna in Year 1, then battle it out with McGee over Kitna's spot next year with the hope that they will inevitably succeed Romo in the future. As an added bonus, Pryor gets to sit while Dallas' woe begotten offensive line gets rebuilt and the team continues to add talent on offense to go with Felix Jones, Miles Austin, Jason Witten and Dez Bryant. If there was ever a prime candidate to overbid for Pryor, it's Jerry Jones' Cowboys.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers: The fact that head coach Mike Tomlin personally came to watch Pryor's Pro Day tells you something about the amount of interest Pittsburgh has and, really, Pryor to the Steelers is a great fit. For one, he's a Pennsylvania kid who shattered records in Jeanette, PA. Like in Dallas, he'll benefit from having a slew of savvy vets in front of him to keep him off the field and mentor him while the patchwork offensive line becomes a bit less.....well, patchwork. The Steelers have Ben Roethlisberger as their guy and, barring another late night illegal tryst, that's not going to change, but the spots behind Big Ben could. Byron Leftwich is 31 and may eventually want to take another stab at starting elsewhere. Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch are fighting for the 3rd spot(with the loser probably getting cut) but, at 26 and expected to hit free agency again next year, Dixon might chase starter money elsewhere and the 36-year old Batch won't be around for much longer either. The depth chart at QB might be a bit congested but the injury history of all four QBs might make things less murky for Pryor. That's why this scenario isn't the #1 spot. It's not inconceivable that, given that shoddy O-Line, Pryor could accelerate up the charts with a few bad hits to the guys in front of him. We know Ben will play through pain but Dixon's had severe injuries in two of his last four seasons(including his final year at Oregon) and Leftwich and Batch are hardly iron men. On a contender like Pittsburgh, you want to avoid turning the keys over to Pryor early so the Steelers would need some good fortune from the trainer's table to avoid Pryor seeing the field in Year 1.

1. Philadelphia Eagles: As much as it pains me to write this, Pryor going to Philly makes the most sense. For one, like with Pittsburgh, Pryor will benefit from being back home....even if that home is in Philly. Second, who better to train this kid than the two guys he's been compared to his entire career, Vince Young and Mike Vick? On top of that, who better to teach Pryor about making believers out of skeptics than last year's Comeback Kid in Vick? Thirdly, is there a big name this offseason that Philly HASN'T reeled in so far? Nnamdi Asomugha, Ronnie Brown, Vince Young, Cullen Jenkins, Steve Smith, Ryan Harris......it was like they signed a solid free agent a week. Another benefit for Pryor will be having Andy Reid as his coach. Reid might be a brainfart expert when it comes to time management and pulling it out in pressure situations but there are few better at developing a young QB. He made Donovan McNabb a household name when everyone in "The City of Brotherly Love" was clamoring for Ricky Williams. He made guys like A.J. Feeley serviceable. He breathed life back into the career of Jeff Garcia. Most importantly, he turned Vick's career around last year. Reid is always looking for a project to groom and Pryor fits that bill to a tee. Like Young and Vick, Pryor was a winner in college who struggled with accuracy but possessed enough raw talent to warrant rolling the dice. On paper, they are the perfect mentors if Vick continues his rebirth and Young stays away from the Zanex and Patron. The Eagles have made it clear it's all-or-nothing this year. Still, Vick is 31 and on a one-year deal, as is Vince Young(who is going to want to eventually find a starter job somewhere). There isn't much behind these two and if Vick is able to pass the torch in a couple years to Pryor, it would add years to Reid's tenure with the Eagles.