That's right, folks, we are heading straight for Manning-mania, Peyton-palooza, whatever cute little tag you want to throw on this. Everything else gets put on the back burner until the man with the laser rocket arm chooses his suitor like he's some heir to an oil tycoon's millions sifting through bimbos on The Bachelor. All that talk about the inevitable Dwight Howard trade? Take a seat. Baseball spring training? Pump your brakes. March Madness? Slow up, boys. For the next few days, Peyton Manning is the greatest appetizer to the main entree that is free agency that we've seen in quite some time.
So what do we know about Peyton's future? Well, if you're naive, you bought Peyton's "I haven't even thought about where I'm headed" nonsense hook, line and sinker. Manning's a cerebral assassin, and when the Colts went in the tank for Andrew Luck, you know he was making plans to start penning his final chapter in a different locale. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Manning's people have been contacted by 12 teams already. The first seven we've known for a while: Arizona, Seattle, Miami, the New York Jets, Washington, Kansas City and, surprisingly, Denver(despite the 2011 season being non-stop Tebow Time). The other five are unknown but if I had to take a stab, my guesses would be Cleveland, Tennessee, San Francisco, Houston and Jacksonville(Initially, I thought Dallas would be a surprise entry, but they've pledged their allegiance to the human Heimlich that is Tony Romo).
To get a better feel for where Peyton's going, one must weigh the pros and cons. One must also eliminate the contenders with no shot. Cleveland is the front runner to make a play for the #2 overall pick and select Baylor Heisman Trophy winning QB Robert Griffin III. They are also a few pieces away from contending, so they are out. Jacksonville might be in worse shape offensively than Cleveland, so they are out. As entertaining as Denver's candidacy is, ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio raised an excellent point a few days ago. Manning isn't going to a spot where the current starting QB is repped by the same agency that reps Manning. Peyton's reps, CAA, also rep Tim Tebow and there's no way CAA(namely Tebow's agent, Jimmy Sexton) risks losing a cash cow like Tebow by infuriating Touchdown Jesus after pitting him against the greatest QB of our generation in a competition for the Broncos starting gig. Manning's also smart enough to know how rabid Broncos fans are when it comes for their love for Tebow and he'd be foolish to try to compete for their love. So, Denver, is out as well. Eventhough they are the best fit of the 12 teams, San Francisco is out for the same reason as Denver. Last year's starter and current free agent, Alex Smith, is also repped by CAA and, while the presence of Manning certainly makes the Niners the favorite in the NFC(if he's healthy), Manning and his people know the only real suitor for Smith is San Francisco and aren't going to selfishly push him out so you can X the Niners out as well.
As foolish as I find Houston's alleged interest in #18 to be, I can't quite rule them out yet. Matt Schaub has proven to be every bit as injury-prone as he is productive and he's in the final year of his deal. The Texans proved that they were an efficient and healthy QB away from making even more noise in the AFC last year. We know Manning is the former, but if he proves to be the latter as well, it would be hard for the Texans to say no with Schaub such a risk to play a full 16. By signing Manning, Houston can then move Schaub in a relatively shallow QB market and get something decent in return for a fragile QB in his prime. A team like Washington, which might not have a chance at Manning and is a little gun-shy about pulling the trigger on an uncertain product like Griffin or even Packers backup Matt Flynn might go with a more proven commodity in Schaub(who played his college ball in nearby UVA). The risk, obviously, is that you're throwing away a 30-year old QB who helped turn around your franchise for a 36-year old replacement who hasn't thrown a pass in an NFL game since January 2011. Schaub might not be durable but he's also not coming off three neck surgeries.
That dwindles our field of 12 down to 8. So, without further ado, I'm going to rank the remaining candidates(bottom to top, for suspense purposes) and weigh the pros and cons. Keep in mind that these are the teams that I think have a likely shot at Manning and are the best fit, not necessarily where I think he lands(honestly, I think he ends up in Miami, but who knows?)
8. Washington Redskins
The good: There isn't much to like but it's necessary to get these guys out of the way. If you're looking for positives here, there's the fact that Manning will be coached by a two-time Super Bowl winner in Mike Shanahan. He'll also have a decent defense and a proven running system to help balance things out. By locking down Manning, the Redskins can move on from looking at QB with their first round pick, and use #6 overall to fill another need, be it LSU corner Morris Claiborne, 'Bama RB Trent Richardson, Iowa OT Riley Reiff or Oklahoma St. wideout Justin Blackmon(if available). Washington is also a given to be players on the free agent market and, with some legit salary cap space, the Redskins could add some pieces to go with their win-now movement.
The bad: Well, for starters, the team's won 15 games in three years. They don't have a true workhorse back or a proven weapon to be on the receiving end of Manning's missiles(despite the fact they insisted upon franchise-tagging TE Fred Davis). Sure, they could fill both of those holes in the draft and free agency, but why take that chance? Speaking of taking chances, why would a immobile QB coming off three neck surgeries play behind THAT offensive line....with three of the best pass rushes in the game in the same division? The Redskins allowed 41 sacks last season and are expected to bid adieu to OT Jamaal Brown. If that isn't enough to lack hope in Mr. Manning coming to Washington, there's this killshot: Peyton has made it known that he's reluctant to come to the NFC because he doesn't want to stand in his little brother's way of the Super Bowl. So, if Peyton is hesitant to join, say, Arizona or Seattle(which are more enticing than DC) because he doesn't want to block Eli, why would he go to the same division as his little brother(not to mention, a team that's won two Super Bowls in five years)?
7. Seattle Seahawks
The good: Seattle has went hard in the draft to rebuild their offensive line the last two years, using first and second rounders on lineman the last two years. At the tail end of the season, it looked like the line was materializing as the youngsters got healthy. The Seahawks also made the best move in free agency so far by locking down workhorse back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch would represent the best back Manning has played with since Edgerrin James in his prime. Seattle also has one of the best homefield advantages in football with one of the best, state-of-the-art stadiums in Qwest Field. Another plus for Manning to come to the Home of Grunge? The NFC West sucks. If the Niners could go 13-3 with Alex Smith, imagine what Seattle, who won the division two years ago at 7-9, could do with a healthy Manning.
The bad: The defense is a bit of a question mark. The team cut oft-injured Pro Bowl corner Marcus Trufant and don't seem to be in any rush to sign tackling machine LB David Hawthorne either. That leaves DE Chris Clemons(11 sacks) and FS Earl Thomas as the only real gems on the defense. Manning also wouldn't have much to throw to beyond TE Zach Miller. Fellow TE John Carlson missed all of last season. WR Sidney Rice hasn't been able to stay healthy for two straight seasons and guys like Mike Willams and Golden Tate are #3 types at best. Also, while clearly a wrecking ball when he has his head on straight, Lynch is still sort of a wild card and I'm not sold on head coach Pete Carroll's prospects in the NFL.
6. New York Jets
The good: A very good defense, even if they underwhelmed last season, has been Gang Green's calling card. If New York managed to make two AFC Championships in three years, you'd like to think they could get over the hump with a healthy Manning. If LaDainian Tomlinson decides to give it another go, Manning's presence opens things up for LT and fellow back Shonn Greene and gives the Jets the offensive balance Mark Sanchez couldn't provide. From a fan standpoint, we would get the always overhyped Brady-Manning clashes twice a year and Manning gets to further stick to his rival by leading Brady's chief competition within the division.
The bad: To put it plainly, this team is a group of knuckleheads. Plaxico Burress is old and rusty coming off nearly three years in the joint and that was evident in his first year back last season. Santonio Holmes is a proven headcase who quit on the team when they needed him the most late last year and those two would be Peyton's top targets. Seriously. Plus, do you really see a situation where Manning and Rex Ryan co-exist given Rex's oversized mouth? I don't. There's also the pressure of New York as well as competing in the same city as the little brother Peyton has made it so clear he wants to protect. We've seen this story four years ago when Brett Favre came to town and, while I think Peyton will resist the urge to send dick pics to the ladies on staff, I think he'll also resist the urge of the Big Apple as well.
5. Arizona Cardinals
The good: Manning gets to play pitch-and-catch with the best wideout in the game. Manning-to-Larry Fitzgerald will make highlight shows drool and fantasy football players spontaneously ejaculate. Arizona also has an above average running game with Beanie Wells and a solid head coach in Ken Whisenhunt. Plus, as with Seattle, Manning benefits from playing in a laughingstock of a division like the NFC West. If the Cardinals could still remain competitive with the shit sandwich that was Kevin Kolb and John Skelton, it goes without saying that Manning makes them more formidable.
The bad: The defense is terrible!(Side note: This is why I loved Manning in San Francisco. The Niners are the only team that plays defense in the NFC West and they play it as good as anyone else in the league. If Manning can entice a good free agent wideout or two to San Francisco, the Niners would run away with the NFC....even ahead of New York and Green Bay. Once again, though, Alex Smith stands in the way of the Niners' title hopes. Stupid Alex Smith.). Since losing guys like Karlos Dansby, Antrel Rolle and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the last couple offseasons, the Cardinals have tried to retool through the draft and free agency with a couple hits(last year's first rounder Patrick Peterson) and misses(the Joey Porter experiment). The Cardinals have guys like DE Darnell Dockett to apply some pressure and Manning commandeering the offense means the Cards will have the upper hand in most shootouts but I don't think that's a risk worth taking for a guy who wants a sure thing in terms of Super Bowl contention.
4. Tennessee Titans
The good: The Titans are the unnamed team not getting much buzz as a potential landing spot for Peyton. For one, they have the best running back in the league in CJ2K, Chris Johnson and a good tag team of receivers in Kenny Britt and Nate Washington. The Titans also have a solid offensive line and the defense is coming along thanks to some nice drafting. Tennessee is also where Manning played his college ball so what better way to close out a career than going back to where it all started. The Titans currently have Matt Hasselbeck and heir apparent Jake Locker on the roster but you have to think, if Houston is willing to jettison Schaub for Manning, the Titans would be willing to axe Matty H for Peyton as well.
The bad: The biggest reason to cross off Tennessee is the Favre factor. Unlike Favre, I don't see Manning relishing in the idea of going into Lucas Oil Stadium and throttling his former team and their new franchise face. You saw how Manning welled-up during his farewell press conference. Does that sound like a guy willing to play with a vendetta? There's also the presence of Locker. Manning wants to go somewhere, kick ass and win Super Bowls. He doesn't want to babysit. Locker's ready to take over this team right now. He's not going to want to keep sitting around waiting for Father Time to finally tell Peyton to kick rocks. Speaking of babysit, does Manning really want to keep chasing after Britt and keep him in check? I doubt it.
3. Houston Texans
The good: They are Peyton's best chance at winning another ring. They have a star in the making in RB Arian Foster, a top 3 wideout in Andre Johnson, a stellar defense and a rock solid offensive line. Also, as the defending AFC South champs, the Texans are already good enough to make the playoffs on their own, which means Manning not only takes them to the next level but, by joining them, removes the threat of having to go through them elsewhere. The only thing that derailed Houston last year was injuries and if Manning stays healthy and they can get something of worth for Schaub, then the Texans become AFC favorites instantaneously.
The bad: Again, the Favre Factor is in play. Playing for the Titans is at least somewhat understandable because of Manning's history with the Vols, but coming back into Indy as a member of the Colts' biggest divisional rival? Well, that's a huge kick in the balls. Also, for all their talent, Houston is the poster child for not being able to get over the hump. Sure, last season could be chalked up to bad luck with injuries but it seems to always be something with this team. One year it was the running game, then the pass defense, now injuries. The Texans were a cute story because they came out of nowhere and developed into legit contenders. With Manning, they become favorites with a bulls eye on their backs. Ask Philadelphia how that kind of pressure ends up working out for you.
2. Miami Dolphins
The good: Miami gets the nod over Houston, despite the lack of talent, because they would be the most likely to land Manning's tag team partner Reggie Wayne. Wayne played his college call as a member of The U and nobody seems more willing to take their talents to South Beach than this former Hurricane. Even if Miami can't get Wayne, the Dolphins still have Brandon Marshall and a slew of young receivers with upside in Davone Bess and Brian Hartline. The Dolphins also have the best left tackle in football in former #1 pick Jake Long, meaning Manning's blind side is covered so long as Big Jake is healthy. Manning would also have a budding running game in Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas. Bush resurrected his career with his first 1,000 yard season and showed flashes of the every-down back that experts thought he would be when they praised him as "the next Gale Sayers" coming out of USC. Thomas is, at the very least, a good fallback option if injuries continue to slow Reggie down. The Dolphins also have a very good defense and Manning will enjoy the glorious weather that comes with playing your home games in South Florida(Those December road games in Buffalo, New Jersey and New England are gonna be a bitch though.)
The bad: For starters, Marshall is a bit of a loose cannon and, while Bush and Thomas have potential, neither are proven. Also unproven is new head coach Joe Philbin, who rose to glory as the offensive coordinator of the vaunted Packers' air attack, but has never been a head coach at any level. Granted, that didn't stop Manning from making the Super Bowl with Jim Caldwell, but it might be a red flag(Then again, the only real proven coach of the eight suitors is Shanahan and he's at the bottom of this list. You could also make the case for Whisenhunt, but the Cards are no shoe-in to land Peyton either). There's also the issue of having to go through New York and New England in the division. Sure, Manning's played in the AFC East before the divisions were realigned but Manning might find this road to the Super Bowl not worth the trouble. That being said, I still think Miami is Manning's most likely landing spot, just not the best fit.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The good: They possess one of the league's best rushing attacks and get one of the game's best dual-threat backs in Jammal Charles back from injury. Whether Jackie Battle or Thomas Jones or whomever joins Charles in the backfield remains to be seen, but Kansas City has proven they can run the ball. They also have a steady crew of receivers from recently-franchised Dwayne Bowe to veteran Steve Breaston to last year's top pick Jon Baldwin. TE Tony Moeaki also comes back from injury and we've seen Manning make productive playmakers out of guys less talented than Moeaki(Looking at you, Ken Dilger!). The defense also came on strong once Romeo Crennel took over for Todd Haley as head coach. Making the defense more stout is the return of FS Eric Berry and free agent signee Stanford Routt. Berry and Stout add to a defense that already has guys like pass-rushing phenom Tamba Hali and lockdown corner Brandon Flowers on the roster. Kansas City also has a great home crowd at Arrowhead Stadium, which is why their November/December record at home speaks for itself. The kicker for Manning, however, is the division. The AFC West makes the NFC West look like the NFC South. With half their stars on injured reserve, the Chiefs still nearly won the division last year after winning it the year before with Matt Cassel running the show. How much faith do you put in a Chargers team in a lame duck Norv Turner year, the Tebow Time Broncos or the Carson Palmer Raiders' chances of topping a Manning-led Chiefs team?
The bad: The offensive line is a bit iffy and the Chiefs are really going to have to hit that area hard in the draft and free agency. There's also the issue of Crennel in his second run as a head coach. Sure, Romeo did well as the interim guy last year and he was huge in leading Kansas City to a big upset over the then-undefeated Packers but was that a sign that Crennel is the real deal or were the players just responding to the fact that the coach they hated was gone? We don't really know. What we do know is Crennel bombed as the lead dog in Cleveland(granted, Cleveland is where stars go to die, but nonetheless, he failed miserably) so it's hard to have too much confidence when expectations will be raised by signing Manning.
At the end of the day, there's no real optimal situations for Peyton Manning. Houston presents the best chance at obtaining what Manning ultimately wants: a Super Bowl ring. But that comes at the expense of having spend the rest of his career going back into the house he built and ripping out the hearts of the very fans who cheered him on for 14 years. Every team comes with a catch, whether it be a lacking defense or an unproven coach or having to compete with his little brother. Inevitably, it comes down to how many red flags Peyton can stomach. He wants to stay in the AFC but he wants to avoid rubbing salt in the wounds of Colts fans. If he avoids smiting Colts fans, he risks going head-to-head with his little brother.
The whole situation might be a lose-lose and that's before we get to the even bigger question: Can Peyton even still play? As much as the social media networks and hype machines like ESPN want to build up Peyton's second act, it can't be ignored that we haven't seen the man throw a football in nearly 14 months. For all we know, Manning's second coming could look more like Joe Namath with the Rams than Favre's first year with the Vikings or Montana's stint with the Chiefs. That's why I suggested he retire a couple months ago. That ship, however, has sailed. In the coming weeks, we will find out where Peyton Manning: The Sequel will be filmed, but will it be a true underdog story or an absolute nightmare?
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