Instead, the intoxicating aroma of desperation has wafted through the air from numerous locales and has traveled to the great city of St. Louis where Rams head coach and GM Les Snead rubbed their palms and licked their chops over the forthcoming wave of offers from QB-needy teams falling over themselves to move up to St. Louis' coveted #2 overall spot in this April's draft so they can tab Griffin as the face of their franchise. Last night, though, the stench of desperation reeking from Washington Redskins owner Dan Snyder was akin to the body odor of a homeless man running the Boston Marathon in 125 degree heat. The Rams took advantage of the Redskins' lust for Griffin the way Jason Russell took advantage of America's need for a chic cause du jour to draw attention to his Joseph Kony documentary.
The Redskins offered up their first and second round picks this year as well as first rounders in 2013 and 2014 to move up four spots(from 6 to 2, for you math wizards) in one of the dumbest trades in recent memory. For starters, football is a team sport. No one player changes the fate of a franchise. Eli Manning just capped off a season where he established himself as one of best, if not THE BEST, QB's in the league......and he'd be nowhere without New York's vaunted pass rush. Robert Griffin III might be a star in the making, but he's no sure thing. As the Falcons found out the hard way this past year(and the Saints found out long before them with the Ricky Williams trade on Draft day), trading a huge package of picks in exchange for one player almost never works. It didn't work for Minnesota in the infamous Hershel Walker trade. It didn't work for Mike Ditka with Ricky Williams and it didn't work for Atlanta last year with Julio Jones.
For this trade not to come out bad for Washington, Griffin is going to have to transform the Redskins instantaneously to keep those two future first-rounders from being so high that they not only become building blocks for an emerging Rams team, but that they don't also become Exhibit A and B for the inevitable "What we could have had if we never traded for RG3" case that Redskins fans will be making in three years. We know why Washington made this deal. They are desperate for a QB, have no shot at signing Peyton Manning and clearly are more willing to bank on the uncertainty of RG3 than the uncertainty of Matt Flynn.
Here's what we also know about Washington: You can make the case they need at least four new starters on the offensive line. They don't have a running back that scares defenses(a point that will be driven home even further as the Redskins pass on Trent Richardson the way they passed on Adrian Peterson for safety LaRon Landry back in 2007.....which is still a sore subject for Redskins fans). Their best wide receiver is Santana Moss, an undersized speedster who would be a #2, at best, on half the teams in the NFL. Their secondary is in shambles, as they are ready to bid farewell to Landry a year after parting ways with cornerback Carlos Rogers. To put it more plainly, the Redskins have a lot of holes. And now, rather than fill those holes through the draft like most smart teams do(Giants, Patriots, Steelers, Packers, etc.), they will tab Griffin as their franchise quarterback and continue with their usual strategy of throwing bags of money at free agents in an attempt to build a winner around RG3 with high-priced mercenaries. Rather than draft a Morris Claiborne, the team will sign Brandon Carr. Instead of having Justin Blackmon, Snyder will pay top dollar for Vincent Jackson. It's a method that has failed this franchise for years from guys like Deion Sanders to Bruce Smith to Antonio Pierce to Adam Archuleta to Albert Haynesworth.
It's easy to look at this deal on paper and chastise it, which is why these several paragraphs will either read as an "I told you so" in four years or as the reason behind the large plate of crow I'll be forced to eat. Still, a team only goes all-in for a franchise guy when that player fills the only gaping hole that stands between them and the Lombardi trophy. How much faith do you have in this Redskins team with Griffin at QB in 2012? If Cam Newton can put together the best statistical season for a rookie QB in the history of the league and still only lead the Panthers(a team with an equal or greater amount of talent when compared to the Redskins, depending on how you feel about either team) to a 6-10 record, what does Griffin have to do to keep this Redskins team above .500 in a much tougher division? On top of that, think about the pressure now being placed on Griffin. It's hard enough for guys picked with the second overall pick to come in and justify their standing, but now Griffin has to keep a front office infamous for its stupidity from looking like even bigger imbeciles. Again, it's still early to pass total judgement on this trade. We don't know where the Rams will be picking when they go on the clock with Washington's picks in '13 and '14. If both picks are in the top 10 or 12, then this trade was a complete failure. If Griffin is the first piece of an epic turnaround, then this trade was a huge coup. I tweeted after the Combine that the team that pushed all of its chips to the middle of the table and traded up for Griffin was either signing their own letter of resignation or launching themselves into the pantheon of the league's great front office execs. This trade will either lead to a lot of hand-wringing or a lot of heads rolling. It's that simple. Time will tell.
The Rams are complete winners in this one, to me, either. Yes, they nabbed a huge load by parlaying all of the Griffin love into the biggest movement of picks since the Walker trade of 1989. They also potentially moved themselves out of range selecting one of the two guys that they desperately needed: USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil and Oklahoma St. Justin Blackmon. Kalil will almost certainly be going to Minnesota with the 3rd overall pick. As for Blackmon? Well, he could still slide to 6th, if he gets by receiver-hungry Cleveland or even Tampa Bay. If both are gone, the Rams will have to talk themselves into someone like Iowa tackle Riley Reiff or maybe even Griffin's college teammate, wideout Kendell Wright, among other candidates. None of which are the best at their position like Kalil and Blackmon are. Time will tell. If the Redskins continue to flop for the next few years, this trade could set the Rams straight long-term but if Griffin proves to be the real deal and Blackmon becomes a star elsewhere, the Rams will have to question whether they moved down a bit too far and whether they should have considered trading with Cleveland instead.
Speaking of Cleveland, they are the big losers here. The Browns offered up the 4th and 22nd picks in this year's draft but were obviously dwarfed by Washington's offer and now find themselves on the outside looking in. They miss out on Griffin, a guy they had the inside track on moving up for and they seem to be long shots to land a marquee free agent QB like Manning or Flynn. At 4th overall, they are way too high to draft Texas A &M QB Ryan Tannenhill(although stranger things have happened) and there won't be an elite prospect after the first three are gone that teams will be salivating to move up for. Flynn also loses here. With Washington out of the running, Flynn has to hope Peyton steers clear of Miami. The Dolphins are the only team that truly makes sense for Flynn because most of the teams that are in the Manning Sweepstakes aren't going to throw away their current starter for Flynn like they are willing to do for Peyton. You think Denver is taking Flynn over Tim Tebow? Nope. You think Houston is going to axe Matt Schaub for Matt Flynn? Doubtful. Is Flynn far and away better than Kevin Kolb for Arizona to make the switch? Not really. Making matters worse, the Jets extended Mark Sanchez for three more years(another foolish move), which takes them out of the running. That leaves Flynn with Cleveland(where QB's go to die), Miami(if they don't get Peyton) or Seattle(which is intriguing, but not as enticing as South Beach) for Aaron Rodgers' heralded backup. Yikes.
Flynn's waiting game, however, is exactly how I would have played it if I'm running the Redskins. There's no way I make this trade before Peyton Manning picks a home. For one, if Manning picks a place with an established starter, that team now has a much cheaper option for me to pilfer. If Manning signs with Houston, I can get Matt Schaub for less than I just dealt to move up for RG3. If Manning chooses Denver, Tebow is suddenly available. I know, I know, you Redskins fans read "Tim Tebow" and start cringing but tell you'd take Rex Grossman or John Beck over Tebow with a straight face. It's not an ideal option, but it's an option. If Manning would've signed with the Jets, I could make a play for Sanchez(again, not ideal, but an upgrade nonetheless). I know what you're thinking: "But what if St. Louis decides to trade the pick to Cleveland?" So be it. At 6th overall, I'm staring at a good corner like Morris Claiborne or a talented back like Trent Richardson. Maybe Justin Blackmon falls to me. I could rebuild my offensive line with a guy like Reiff or Mike Adams out of Ohio State. I have options. Plus, I still have my picks next year and the year after. Next year, we got Matt Barkley coming out. Landry Jones is coming out. Is it a guarantee I'll be picking high enough for those guys? No, but again, I have options. By going all-in for Griffin, I lose all those options. I'm putting a lot of eggs in the basket of a kid whose style has not translated to much success in the NFL for guys who fit his prototype. As great as Griffin's wheels are, they also make him susceptible to injury. Griffin isn't built like Tebow or Newton and he's now playing behind a bad offensive line in a division with three good pass defenses. How do you like the prospects of a 6'2, 220lb guy running for his life to stay healthy for 16 games? Is it worth betting the house for? Griffin missed nearly all of 2009 and 2010 at Baylor because of injuries. He has one great season to his name....and before you reply with "Well, so did Cam Newton!", my response to that is "Would you have traded three first round picks for Newton this time last year?". No. You would not.
At the end of the day, time will tell on this deal. For now, it's a hefty price for a guy who's chances of stardom are somewhere between 49 and 51 percent. Robert Griffin III holds the fate of football in the nation's capital in his hands. He'll enter DC as the savior, the franchise, the man who will turn things around. In a bit of comedic irony, the deal that was made that brought him to Washington could be the chief reason why he fails. Franchises aren't built around one player. Aaron Rodgers needed plays from his defense to win the Super Bowl. Tom Brady needed Adam Vinatieri. Big Ben needed James Harrison. TEAMS win Super Bowls and you can't build for the future if you mortgage it for the present. We knew somebody was going to be desperate enough to pay a king's ransom for St. Louis' pick. The fact that Dan Snyder was the guy who foolishly overplayed his hand was as surprising as Snooki's pregnancy. This trade is a microcosm of how business has been handled under the Snyder era:
Win now....or win never.
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