Doomed

If the Dwight Howard-Orlando Magic saga has a familiar ring to it, it's because we've seen this movie before. In fact, we were in this exact situation a year ago with a young superstar whose contract was up at the end of the season who had dreams of greener pastures elsewhere, but was held captive longer than need-be because his current team wasn't sure how to handle the situation. For the first half of the 2011 NBA season, the Denver Nuggets suffered through the "Melo-drama" of Carmelo Anthony's murky future in the Rockies.

It wasn't until February 21, 2011 that things finally found a resolution. That was the day Denver agreed to give 'Melo his wish and trade him to the New York Knicks in one of the rare panic trades that worked out for both sides. The Nuggets got a future star in Danilo Gallinari as well as some much-needed cap relief(which allowed them to retain Nene this past offseason), while the Knicks got the second coming of Bernard King as their new franchise poster child.

You would think, after years of being around the game, front office suits like Magic GM Otis Smith would understand that, when a player wants out, you get him out. The Hornets understood that concept prior to the start of this season, which is why they worked steadfast in moving an unhappy Chris Paul to the Clippers. Hell, the Hornets worked so hard on granting Paul his wish, they actually managed to work two trades out in the short time span between the end of the lockout and the opening tip on Christmas: a very good trade with the Lakers that was unjustifiably shut down by the league office and the equally good deal with the Clippers that David Stern inevitably signed off on. The Magic, however, either due to ignorance and incompetence or because the right deal hasn't presented itself haven't been as fortunate as New Orleans. The result, as with Denver prior to the Anthony trade, has been a predictable one so far. The Magic are 12-8, good for 6th in a weak Eastern conference, and are in the midst of a three-game losing streak that includes blowing a 27-point lead in a loss to Boston(who had beat Orlando by 31 points three nights prior, mind you), a 26-point loss to an Eric Gordon-less Hornets team and last night's 21-point drubbing at the hands of the Indiana Pacers.

Following the beatdown by the Hornets, Howard let his frustration out publicly, questioning the desire of his fellow teammates. As justified as Howard's anger was, what can you really expect from a team faced with constant question about it's biggest star's future. How can you expect your cohorts to give their all when you are making plans for your own departure behind closed doors? You can't denounce your supporting cast when you've spent the last two months telling the world you'd rather be somewhere else because these guys aren't doing it for me. I'll give Howard some credit for not going the LeBron route and duping fans into thinking he's staying while internally knowing he was leaving at the end of the season and it's not like Howard hasn't given Orlando everything it needs to make a deal. That's where the blame falls upon Otis Smith and company. You have Dwight's wish list of teams he wants to play for in your hands. What's the holdup? I get it. You don't want to deal Howard before the All-Star Game in Orlando and have him come back to town in another team's uniform. That's understandable....to an extent. For one, at the end of the day, you're still trading the best center in the league and a 26-year old franchise cornerstone that was supposed to make Magic fans forget about losing Shaq 16 years ago. Whether you deal him now or in three weeks, you'll still be remembered as "the front office that had to trade Superman because they couldn't build a team around him". It will be awhile before those wounds heal in Orlando and, while Howard coming to Orlando for the All-Star Game as a Net or Laker or Maverick certainly rubs salt in those wounds, the damage is done either way. Secondly, with Howard already pissed over his team's play, this situation is only going to get uglier and, as we've seen with front offices faced with ugly public situations(read: The Lakers and Lamar Odom a month ago), that only increases the chances of a trade being rushed together and the Magic getting less than fair value for the best defensive big man in the game.

According to ESPN's Ric Bucher, the New Jersey/Brooklyn Nets are the frontrunners to land Howard once fellow young center Brook Lopez returns from a broken foot. If that's really true, then I shake my head. Don't get me wrong. If Howard's arrival to the Nets convinced Deron Williams to stay in NJ/Brooklyn, then it's worth the price. But look at things from Orlando's side. You're trading a 26-year old perennial MVP candidate for a guy coming off a broken foot whom the team clearly didn't think was going to develop that much because they are waiting for him to get healthy so they can deal him rather than build around him. Rookie guard Marshon Brooks, a dark horse for the Rookie of the Year this year and someone the Nets will almost certainly include in a deal for Doomsday, just broke his toe and will be sidelined as well. So, the Magic will be acquiring two broken parts as the centerpiece in a deal that would send a man who's never had a serious injury in his career out of town. Does the mind not rebel at any point when reading that last paragraph?

The other teams on Howard's wish list would seem to be better options for Orlando solely because they are all in another conference(except for Dwight's newest addition to the list, Chicago, whom the Magic can't compete with now even with Howard on the roster): Both Los Angeles teams(Lakers and Clippers, incase you're slow) and the Dallas Mavericks. A Chris Paul-Dwight Howard tag team would be fun to watch but it would almost certianly come at the expense of current Lob City partner Blake Griffin. The Clippers already shot all their ammo in the deal to bring CP3 to the Left Coast, the only other pieces they have to move are Griffin(quickly emerging into one of the game's best inside presences) and DeAndre Jordan(who can't be traded until March 1, assuming they get DeAndre's consent in the first place, per league rules). Jordan is 23 and Griffin is 22. Obviously, a haul like that trumps anything any of the other potential suitors can offer but how does that make sense for the Clippers? Jordan's becoming a rising star as a shotblocker and Griffin is already one of the three or four best power forwards in the game and an absolute double-double machine(currently averaging 21 and 11 midway into just his second season). On top of that, you're getting Griffin at a discount as he's still signed to his rookie deal. What does Howard bring to the table that Jordan and Griffin aren't already bringing combined at three and fours years younger, respectively?

How about Dallas? Who do the Mavericks have that the Magic could take back and build around? Roddy Beaubois? Dominique Jones? You're not getting Dirk. Hell, you probably won't get nothing beyond a Shawn Marion/Vince Carter/Brendan Haywood poo-poo platter. How enticing does that sound, Magic fans?

Now, the Bulls are very intriguing. The Bulls have a lot of young guys like Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Jimmy Butler, Omar Asik, etc. The problem with that is, if Chicago was unwilling to agree to a trade centered around Noah a year ago for Anthony, why would they make that deal now for Howard? As with the Clippers and Griffin/Jordan, what can Howard do that the duo of Noah and Carlos Boozer can't? Is it an upgrade? Sure, but not a huge one and certainly not worth trading so many pieces of a good, young core.

That leaves only the Lakers left. I did some tinkering around and came up with a trade that makes sense for everyone(Disclaimer: I'm almost 100% sure the trade I'm about to propose has been pitched on another website by another writer in some variance. There's a million blogs out there. Eventually, we're going to write the same sentence. Though, the fact that this trade might have appeared in another place earlier in time makes it even more foolish on the Magic's part for it not getting done). The main concept behind a Lakers trade for Howard is pretty much rehashing the failed three-way trade the Lakers had in place with Houston and New Orleans for Chris Paul, except with Howard replacing Paul and Andrew Bynum replacing the now-departed Lamar Odom with a few spare parts I threw in just for one. Now, I'm sure some salary number-cruncher is going to look this over and say "That can't work". Fine. You want to pick nits, have at it.

The Trade: Lakers acquire center Dwight Howard as well as point guard Jonny Flynn from Houston, Houston sends forward Luis Scola to L.A. while also sending center Hasheem Thabeet and guard Kevin Martin to Orlando. The Magic also acquire Andrew Bynum from the Lakers, who would send Pau Gasol to Houston. The Magic would also send Hedo Turkoglu's disgustingly bad contract to Houston, along with guard J.J. Redick.

Again, you can mix and match however you like and change the spare parts if you feel the need but the biggest components of the deal(Howard, Bynum, Martin, Gasol, Scola) are what's important.

Why This Trade Works For The Lakers: You can make the same case for Bynum/Gasol that you could for Griffin/Jordan and Noah/Boozer with the exception of a couple key points. One, even the most jaded Lakers fan couldn't tell you with a straight face they aren't worried about Bynum's knees. He's a slightly more durable Greg Oden. Yes, Bynum's a couple years younger than Howard. Yes, going from Gasol to Scola is a bit of a downgrade but Scola and Howard bring to the table what Gasol and Bynum don't: durability, physicality and toughness(And, if you want to counter this argument with "Well, Bynum showed his toughness by getting physical with J.J. Barea in last year's playoffs", first you should punch yourself in the nuts and then I would counter with Bynum's clothesline on Barea is actually the antithesis of tough. It was a bitch move. It was an immature 7-footer unable to handle the piping hot plate of ass-whooping his team was being dealt and taking his frustrations out on someone half his size. My wife is taller than J.J. Barea. Tyson-Givens was more a fight than Bynum-Barea. Knock it off). Scola might not possess the rebounding numbers that Gasol has but Bynum doesn't possess the rebounding numbers that Howard has, so it draws even. Scola is also a banger inside, something Gasol(despite his gaudy rebounding numbers) is not.

The biggest plus for giving up on Bynum and Gasol here is that Howard puts asses in seats. Are you buying Lakers tickets to see Andrew Bynum? Would you call Pau Gasol "must see TV"? Of course not. Howard has the look, the smile, the personality and the resume to pick up right where Shaq left off when "The Diesel" left Hollywood and Howard's humble enough to not get into a pissing contest with Kobe over whose team it is. Furthermore, the Lakers would also get a young point man in Flynn, who might be a bust as a lottery pick but has to be an upgrade over Derek Fisher's rotting corpse and Steve Blake almost by default.

Why The Trade Works For Houston: Kevin Martin is no more capable of being a star than Turkoglu or Redick are. He's a fine shooter with an ugly form who knows how to put up numbers on bad teams. He's a guard version of Chris Bosh. Houston's success throughout its history has been predicated on having a good big man. It was the case during the Ralph Sampson era then when Hakeem Olajuwon came to town and most recently with the drafting of Yao Ming in 2002. The Rockets have made it no secret they have a hard-on for Pau and, while Gasol might not like it in Houston, going to the Rockets allows Gasol to get the respect and attention he's not getting playing second fiddle to Kobe in Laker Land. It seems like Houston is giving up a lot but keep in mind that the team probably wasn't going to keep Flynn and Thabeet(both horrendous draft busts with other teams) after this season and Martin has never and will never be the star that Gasol was or is. By moving Martin and replacing him with Redick, J.J. gets to finally crack a starting lineup and fulfill his calling as this generation's Mark Price(except slightly taller and a bit drunker). Redick has come along as the Magic's chief shooter off the bench but major minutes were always going to be tough sitting behind the Vince Carters and Jason Richardsons of the world. The Turkoglu contract is a bit steep but it's a fair price to pay when you consider what the other two teams are giving up.

Why It Works For The Magic: First and foremost, it finally ends the round-the-clock speculation and questioning over Howard's future. There's no perfect way to replace a franchise big man. It took Orlando a decade to replace Shaq. By bringing in Bynum(and even Thabeet) and putting them under the tutelage of assistant coach and future Hall of Fame center Patrick Ewing, the Magic might end up doing alright here. With Howard now officially gone, the team can focus on re-signing forward Ryan Anderson, who's having a career season in his contract year(always a red flag, but whatever) and the Magic could still contend with a Bynum-Anderson-Richardson-Martin-Nelson, especially with the Howard headache out of the way. If Ewing can salvage Thabeet and turn him into even something slightly resembling the "next Dikembe Mutombo" billing he had coming out of college, then he's worth the risk. If not, he's a free agent at the end of the year anyway. Obviously, the hope for Orlando is that Bynum's knees stay in tact. If he continues to break down, then it's back to the drawing board. Still, at least you got something in return.

Look, it's not a perfect deal but it's an idea. Sure, there's going to be reluctance by the Magic to see their poster child center in the purple and gold yet again but that's the breaks. Much like the Cavs with LeBron, the team had years to build a winner around their young cornerstone and failed thanks to bad trades and foolish signings. Much like the Cavs and LeBron, the team thought that an NBA Finals appearance, albeit an unsuccessful one, would give their franchise player a sign of what might come and convince him to stick around. Much like the Cavs and LeBron, that theory was flawed and they'll watch said franchise player exit stage left. There are plenty of precedents here for the Magic to learn from and not follow suit. The Hornets went about this same issue the right way. The Nuggets did not but eventually recovered. The Cavs couldn't have handled it any worse(though, could you imagine the riots in Cleveland had the Cavs actually traded LeBron prior to "The Decision"). Basketball isn't rocket science, despite all the fancy numbers and the hiring of big brains like Rockets GM Daryl Morey. Sometimes, to build a winner, all you need is luck, timing and some common sense.

The writing is on the wall for the Orlando Magic. It's not written in invisible ink. Dwight Howard has to go. Dwight Howard wants to go.

No good comes from delaying the inevitable. Just ask Nuggets fans before February 21, 2011.

Winners And Losers of NBA Trade Deadline

After weeks of trade rumors, salary dumps, offseason prognostications and various other hubbub, the smoke has finally cleared on the NBA trading deadline. Some teams got better. Some got worse. Some just sat around grabbing their nuts. So without further ado, here are the winners and losers of 2010's Trade-a-palooza.

WINNERS

1. Houston Rockets: They turned an oft-injured, overpaid, sulking waste of space into a quality, young shooter and some much needed size. The Rockets had to part ways with promising forwards Carl Landry and Joey Dorsey, but managed to get back sharp-shooting Kevin Martin to fill the scoring void left by Tracy McGrady(who went to the Knicks), as well as acquire a few new promising bigs in 2009 1st rounder Jordan Hill, versatile(yet overpaid) Jared Jefferies and adequate backup center Hilton Armstrong. For a team that was playing the 6'9 Landry at center, Houston did well to grab some length in the 6'11 Hill, 6'10 Jefferies and the 7' Armstrong. They also managed to take advantage of the Knicks' desperation to make cap room for LeBron next summer by conning New York into the right to swap 1st rounders in 2011 and the right to take the Knicks' 1st rounder in 2012. The 2011 swap is Top 1 protected, while the '12 1st rounder is Top 5 protected. The impact of those picks will be realized down the road, but for now, the Rockets will go into next year with a potentially healthy Yao Ming and two young scoring wing players in Martin and offseason signing Trevor Ariza. On top of that, they'll get to develop Hill and Armstrong while still possessing solid bench players like Shane Battier and Aaron Brooks. All in all, the Rockets owned the NBA Trade Deadline.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers: In the end, the Cavs made the smart move by opting for Antawn Jamison over Amare Stoudemire. The potential defensive deficiency that a Amare-Shaq frontcourt would have posed could have been disasterous to a team that will have to face teams like Atlanta and Orlando, who like to dominate the inside. The presence of Jamison allows the Cavs to stretch the floor and, most importantly, snatching Jamison from Washington didn't cost them young forward J.J. Hickson, whom the Cavs highly regard. The down side to the trade is that now the pressure is on LeBron and company to bring home the title after management has shown its commitment to build a winner around "The Akron Hammer". If the team can re-sign Big Z(who was sent to Washington in the Jamison trade, but is expected to be bought out), then the deal becomes that much more of a coup for Cleveland. Point guard Sebastian Telfair will probably spend the rest of the season perfecting his bench posture, as he will be hard-pressed to find minutes on a team that already has Delonte West, Mo Williams and Boobie Gibson in the backcourt. The Cavs were the team to beat in the East prior to bringing in Jamison, now that the former Tarheel is in Cleveland, the view from the top of the mountian just got a little bit steeper.

3. New York Knicks: T-Mac's impact is moot at this point because the purpose of bringing the former 2-time scoring champ into the Big Apple was purely monetary. Depending on how the salary cap goes, the Knicks could walk into this offseason with the biggest bank of any potential buyer. Of course, that only really matters if they snag the big fish New Yorkers have wanted for the last two years: LeBron James. If the Knicks can't woo LeBron to the Garden this summer, than all of this movemaking was a waste. They would have given up early on young forward Jordan Hill for nothing. They would have squandered a chance at building through the draft by swapping first rounders in '11 and '12, and most importantly, they would continue to infuriate an already impatient fan base. Make no mistake, for Knicks fans, it's LeBron or Bust. Maybe they'll settle on Wade and Bosh or Wade and Amare, but if LeBron re-ups with Cleveland or worse, signs with the soon-to-be Brooklyn Nets, we might have anarchy in Manhattan. For now though, the Knicks made all the right moves(short of finding someone dumb enough to take on Eddy Curry's contract) and they got some decent returns for jitterbug point man Nate Robinson(Guards Eddie House and J.R. Giddens, mainly) as well as shedding themselves of all-time bust Darko Milicic. A solid night of moves, but the real payoff has to come this summer.

4. Portland Trailblazers: They needed size in the worst way and they got it by pilfering one of the best rebounder/shotblockers in the game in Marcus Camby. Sure, acquiring a guy with Camby's injury history after losing two starting centers for the season is a bit risky, but if the Blazers are going to compete this season, they would have needed someone of Camby's ilk to man the paint. Also, what did it really cost them? The Blazers were deep enough at point guard and small forward to afford to ditch young Travis Outlaw and the bad contract of point guard Steve Blake. That still leaves the team with veteran Andre Miller and youngster Jerrod Bayless to run point and sharpshooting Euros Rudy Fernandez and Nicolas Batum on the wing. If Camby can stay healthy for the rest of the season, this trade becomes the biggest steal of any of the deals done this year.

5. Dallas Mavericks: They took advantage of a Wizards front office desperately seeking ways to tell fans to go fuck themselves. Once Gilbert Arenas was suspended for the season, the firebombing began and the Mavs turned out to be the biggest beneficiaries of the two stars dealt. By snagging rugged guard/forward Caron Butler(as well as center Brandon Haywood and swingman DeShawn Stevenson), the Mavs added some nice depth as well as a proven scorer and defender in Butler. Plus, they got to wave bye-bye to headache-inducing knucklehead Josh Howard. Now, much like the Blazers and Rockets' moves, it remains to be seen whether this really changes the inevitable, which is the Lakers running away with the West. Still, three teams that had big time needs, filled them at the right time and the Lakers(who remained silent after failing to acquire Kirk Hinrich from the Bulls) have their hands a bit more full than they did three weeks ago.

LOSERS

1. Amare Stoudemire: Fat girls and band geeks haven't been as disappointed in the middle of February the last two years as much as Amare Stoudemire. Just how many times does a man have to hear a trade out of town is imminent before he snaps once the deadline passes and he's stuck in the same place. Last year, we heard Amare was a mortal lock to be out of Phoenix before all deals fell through and Stoudemire ended his season in a dress suit on the sidelines. This year, Amare(in a contract year, mind you), sat back and watched Cleveland, Miami and Chicago drool over him only to find himself still in the desert. Infamous troublemaker Ron Artest can find a way to be traded twice, but an explosive, young All-Star(who may have a bit of a lax approach to defense, but nevertheless) can't seem to get a new address for the second straight year. It remains to be seen how this recent disappointment affects the big man's psyche. After all, Stoudemire is prone to injury and he wasn't the most motivated man in the world before this latest managerial screw-up. Does the big fella risk injury by going all out these next few months in an effort to raise his already high interest or does he put it on cruise control for a team that managed to screw him over for a second straight year and risk the PR hit for being unmotivated? That's a decision that has to weight heavy on Stoudemire's mind after another deadline that seems like deja vu.

2. Miami Heat: As bad as things turned out for Amare, the same could be said for Dwayne Wade. Five months ago, D-Wade ordered the team to get him some help if they wanted Flash to stick around past this season. They flirted with Phoenix and getting Amare. They whispered to Utah about Carlos Boozer. In the end......nothing. Even with Jermaine O'Neal's expiring contract, the dangling of troubled former #2 overall pick Michael Beasley and two first round draft picks in next year's draft, the Heat managed to just stay put. Does this mean Dwayne has played his last season in Miami? Who knows? But if this is a sign of the aggressiveness the front office is going to show to build a contender around a certified Top 3 or 4 player in his contract year, then there really is no reason for Wade to not go elsewhere this summer.

3. Washington Wizards: What an absolute sad sack, worthless, piece of shit organization! What a way to turn around and bitchslap fans right in the face. Once things went south for the Wizards, the front office flipped off fans by auctioning off stars Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison for pennies like they were O.J. Simpson's trophies. Let's take a look at the Wizards' moves over the last year or so. First, they offered that ridiculous $112 million contract to Gilbert Arenas(who barely played the past two seasons). Then, they blew their shot at Ricky Rubio by dealing away the 5th pick in the draft when they could have easily snagged the Spanish prodigy and talked him into staying in the U.S. by offering a big market(or at least, a bigger market than Minnesota). Then, they get shot in the foot by Arenas' moronic gun possession charge. Now, in the midst of another horrible season, they practically give away Butler and Jamison for expirings in the hopes of a huge spending spree this offseason. Who the hell would want to come to Washington, and how the hell can they expect fans to waltz back into the Verizon Center after the huge "FUCK YOU!" they just emailed to everyone in the nation's capital? How can this team offer tickets for more than 50 cents with the roster of nobodies they have now? You think someone's paying top dollar in a recession to see an idiot like Josh Howard?(Side note: How great is it that Howard goes from insulting the National Anthem on YouTube to now playing in D.C.?) If the Wizards don't snag two top free agents this summer, then David Stern should do the right thing and contract this miserable abomination of a franchise and ban Ernie Grunfeld and his stable of dumbasses from linking up with another NBA franchise ever again.

INCOMPLETES

1. Los Angeles Clippers: They turned a valuable trade piece in Camby into a backup point guard and platooner at small forward. They also opened up quite a bit of cap space in the process. Like so many other teams, the moves by the Clippers depend on what they do with that newfound cap room. If the Clippers can woo LeBron with the promise of a huge market, a roster of talented youngsters(Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman as well as Baron Davis) than it was worth giving away Camby for 10 cents on the dollar. Still, the $100 million question is this: Would a prominant star like LeBron(or any big name, for that matter) be willing to climb aboard a ship owned by a much-publicized racist like Donald Sterling? If James wasn't already getting his lumps already from activists like Jim Brown for his unwillingness to speak out against racial injustice, he sure will if he agrees to take hate money from a evil douche like Sterling. Do I think the Clippers end up with any of the big free agents next year? No. LeBron's choosing between Cleveland, New York or Miami and I can't see Wade or Bosh coming to the West coast. Plus, after watching Blake Griffin's knee snap like a twig, how can you not think this team is possessed by some kind of bad omen?

2. Boston Celtics: They got scoring mini-mite Nate Robinson for a barrell of benchwarmers and they managed to hold on to aging Ray Allen and keep the team chemistry in tact, but this team has gotten old fast. What looked like a potential dynasty after their championship run two years ago now feels like it decades have passed. Kevin Garnett is on his last leg(pun intended) and the mental and physical fatigue of carrying this team is once again exhausting Paul Pierce. Allen has shown his age, too, as he is not nearly as effective as in years past and free agent signing Rasheed Wallace has proven to be a waste of cash. On top of that, there's no youth movement behind these guys anymore. Glen Davis is a serviceable backup, but he's hardly someone who can carry the mantle after KG hangs them up and the team already lacked depth even before it dealt three players to New York for Robinson. The bottom line? This team can still be a contender if they find a fountian of youth, but with teams like Cleveland improving at the deadline, it looks like the final nail is just waiting to be hammered into the coffin.

3. Chicago Bulls: They managed to get something(albeit not much) for John Salmon's terrible contract and the unfufilled potential of former #2 overall pick, Tyrus Thomas. They also secured some nice cap room and you have to think they'll be looking at bringing in hometown boy Dwayne Wade and perhaps making a run at a Boozer or Bosh as well. Still, they swung and missed on sending away high-priced guard Kirk Hinrich(after a deal with the Lakers fell apart) and one wonders what they could have gotten in a sign-and-trade at the end of the year for Thomas if he managed to show some promise down the stretch. Once again, what happens this summer will go a long way into how we judge everything that transpired here.

4. Sacramento Kings: They went from believing that marksman Kevin Martin could co-exist with potential ROTY point guard Tyreke Evans to trading Martin for a couple expiring contracts and a promising forward in Carl Landry. Larry Hughes is a nice replacement for Martin, if he stays healthy which he never does. Landry is a solid banger inside but the team already has Kenny Thomas(though his contract expires at the end of the year) and fellow young prospect Jason Thompson. The acquisition of Landry has to come at the sacrifice of one of them(especially since Joey Dorsey came with him). If Landry turns out to be a 20-10 guy and the Kings can snag a solid wing who complements Evans in either the draft or free agency, then everything worked out in their favor. However, if Martin lights it up for Houston and Landry can't re-create his magic in Houston, this trade will leave many scratching their heads.