Doomed

If the Dwight Howard-Orlando Magic saga has a familiar ring to it, it's because we've seen this movie before. In fact, we were in this exact situation a year ago with a young superstar whose contract was up at the end of the season who had dreams of greener pastures elsewhere, but was held captive longer than need-be because his current team wasn't sure how to handle the situation. For the first half of the 2011 NBA season, the Denver Nuggets suffered through the "Melo-drama" of Carmelo Anthony's murky future in the Rockies.

It wasn't until February 21, 2011 that things finally found a resolution. That was the day Denver agreed to give 'Melo his wish and trade him to the New York Knicks in one of the rare panic trades that worked out for both sides. The Nuggets got a future star in Danilo Gallinari as well as some much-needed cap relief(which allowed them to retain Nene this past offseason), while the Knicks got the second coming of Bernard King as their new franchise poster child.

You would think, after years of being around the game, front office suits like Magic GM Otis Smith would understand that, when a player wants out, you get him out. The Hornets understood that concept prior to the start of this season, which is why they worked steadfast in moving an unhappy Chris Paul to the Clippers. Hell, the Hornets worked so hard on granting Paul his wish, they actually managed to work two trades out in the short time span between the end of the lockout and the opening tip on Christmas: a very good trade with the Lakers that was unjustifiably shut down by the league office and the equally good deal with the Clippers that David Stern inevitably signed off on. The Magic, however, either due to ignorance and incompetence or because the right deal hasn't presented itself haven't been as fortunate as New Orleans. The result, as with Denver prior to the Anthony trade, has been a predictable one so far. The Magic are 12-8, good for 6th in a weak Eastern conference, and are in the midst of a three-game losing streak that includes blowing a 27-point lead in a loss to Boston(who had beat Orlando by 31 points three nights prior, mind you), a 26-point loss to an Eric Gordon-less Hornets team and last night's 21-point drubbing at the hands of the Indiana Pacers.

Following the beatdown by the Hornets, Howard let his frustration out publicly, questioning the desire of his fellow teammates. As justified as Howard's anger was, what can you really expect from a team faced with constant question about it's biggest star's future. How can you expect your cohorts to give their all when you are making plans for your own departure behind closed doors? You can't denounce your supporting cast when you've spent the last two months telling the world you'd rather be somewhere else because these guys aren't doing it for me. I'll give Howard some credit for not going the LeBron route and duping fans into thinking he's staying while internally knowing he was leaving at the end of the season and it's not like Howard hasn't given Orlando everything it needs to make a deal. That's where the blame falls upon Otis Smith and company. You have Dwight's wish list of teams he wants to play for in your hands. What's the holdup? I get it. You don't want to deal Howard before the All-Star Game in Orlando and have him come back to town in another team's uniform. That's understandable....to an extent. For one, at the end of the day, you're still trading the best center in the league and a 26-year old franchise cornerstone that was supposed to make Magic fans forget about losing Shaq 16 years ago. Whether you deal him now or in three weeks, you'll still be remembered as "the front office that had to trade Superman because they couldn't build a team around him". It will be awhile before those wounds heal in Orlando and, while Howard coming to Orlando for the All-Star Game as a Net or Laker or Maverick certainly rubs salt in those wounds, the damage is done either way. Secondly, with Howard already pissed over his team's play, this situation is only going to get uglier and, as we've seen with front offices faced with ugly public situations(read: The Lakers and Lamar Odom a month ago), that only increases the chances of a trade being rushed together and the Magic getting less than fair value for the best defensive big man in the game.

According to ESPN's Ric Bucher, the New Jersey/Brooklyn Nets are the frontrunners to land Howard once fellow young center Brook Lopez returns from a broken foot. If that's really true, then I shake my head. Don't get me wrong. If Howard's arrival to the Nets convinced Deron Williams to stay in NJ/Brooklyn, then it's worth the price. But look at things from Orlando's side. You're trading a 26-year old perennial MVP candidate for a guy coming off a broken foot whom the team clearly didn't think was going to develop that much because they are waiting for him to get healthy so they can deal him rather than build around him. Rookie guard Marshon Brooks, a dark horse for the Rookie of the Year this year and someone the Nets will almost certainly include in a deal for Doomsday, just broke his toe and will be sidelined as well. So, the Magic will be acquiring two broken parts as the centerpiece in a deal that would send a man who's never had a serious injury in his career out of town. Does the mind not rebel at any point when reading that last paragraph?

The other teams on Howard's wish list would seem to be better options for Orlando solely because they are all in another conference(except for Dwight's newest addition to the list, Chicago, whom the Magic can't compete with now even with Howard on the roster): Both Los Angeles teams(Lakers and Clippers, incase you're slow) and the Dallas Mavericks. A Chris Paul-Dwight Howard tag team would be fun to watch but it would almost certianly come at the expense of current Lob City partner Blake Griffin. The Clippers already shot all their ammo in the deal to bring CP3 to the Left Coast, the only other pieces they have to move are Griffin(quickly emerging into one of the game's best inside presences) and DeAndre Jordan(who can't be traded until March 1, assuming they get DeAndre's consent in the first place, per league rules). Jordan is 23 and Griffin is 22. Obviously, a haul like that trumps anything any of the other potential suitors can offer but how does that make sense for the Clippers? Jordan's becoming a rising star as a shotblocker and Griffin is already one of the three or four best power forwards in the game and an absolute double-double machine(currently averaging 21 and 11 midway into just his second season). On top of that, you're getting Griffin at a discount as he's still signed to his rookie deal. What does Howard bring to the table that Jordan and Griffin aren't already bringing combined at three and fours years younger, respectively?

How about Dallas? Who do the Mavericks have that the Magic could take back and build around? Roddy Beaubois? Dominique Jones? You're not getting Dirk. Hell, you probably won't get nothing beyond a Shawn Marion/Vince Carter/Brendan Haywood poo-poo platter. How enticing does that sound, Magic fans?

Now, the Bulls are very intriguing. The Bulls have a lot of young guys like Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Jimmy Butler, Omar Asik, etc. The problem with that is, if Chicago was unwilling to agree to a trade centered around Noah a year ago for Anthony, why would they make that deal now for Howard? As with the Clippers and Griffin/Jordan, what can Howard do that the duo of Noah and Carlos Boozer can't? Is it an upgrade? Sure, but not a huge one and certainly not worth trading so many pieces of a good, young core.

That leaves only the Lakers left. I did some tinkering around and came up with a trade that makes sense for everyone(Disclaimer: I'm almost 100% sure the trade I'm about to propose has been pitched on another website by another writer in some variance. There's a million blogs out there. Eventually, we're going to write the same sentence. Though, the fact that this trade might have appeared in another place earlier in time makes it even more foolish on the Magic's part for it not getting done). The main concept behind a Lakers trade for Howard is pretty much rehashing the failed three-way trade the Lakers had in place with Houston and New Orleans for Chris Paul, except with Howard replacing Paul and Andrew Bynum replacing the now-departed Lamar Odom with a few spare parts I threw in just for one. Now, I'm sure some salary number-cruncher is going to look this over and say "That can't work". Fine. You want to pick nits, have at it.

The Trade: Lakers acquire center Dwight Howard as well as point guard Jonny Flynn from Houston, Houston sends forward Luis Scola to L.A. while also sending center Hasheem Thabeet and guard Kevin Martin to Orlando. The Magic also acquire Andrew Bynum from the Lakers, who would send Pau Gasol to Houston. The Magic would also send Hedo Turkoglu's disgustingly bad contract to Houston, along with guard J.J. Redick.

Again, you can mix and match however you like and change the spare parts if you feel the need but the biggest components of the deal(Howard, Bynum, Martin, Gasol, Scola) are what's important.

Why This Trade Works For The Lakers: You can make the same case for Bynum/Gasol that you could for Griffin/Jordan and Noah/Boozer with the exception of a couple key points. One, even the most jaded Lakers fan couldn't tell you with a straight face they aren't worried about Bynum's knees. He's a slightly more durable Greg Oden. Yes, Bynum's a couple years younger than Howard. Yes, going from Gasol to Scola is a bit of a downgrade but Scola and Howard bring to the table what Gasol and Bynum don't: durability, physicality and toughness(And, if you want to counter this argument with "Well, Bynum showed his toughness by getting physical with J.J. Barea in last year's playoffs", first you should punch yourself in the nuts and then I would counter with Bynum's clothesline on Barea is actually the antithesis of tough. It was a bitch move. It was an immature 7-footer unable to handle the piping hot plate of ass-whooping his team was being dealt and taking his frustrations out on someone half his size. My wife is taller than J.J. Barea. Tyson-Givens was more a fight than Bynum-Barea. Knock it off). Scola might not possess the rebounding numbers that Gasol has but Bynum doesn't possess the rebounding numbers that Howard has, so it draws even. Scola is also a banger inside, something Gasol(despite his gaudy rebounding numbers) is not.

The biggest plus for giving up on Bynum and Gasol here is that Howard puts asses in seats. Are you buying Lakers tickets to see Andrew Bynum? Would you call Pau Gasol "must see TV"? Of course not. Howard has the look, the smile, the personality and the resume to pick up right where Shaq left off when "The Diesel" left Hollywood and Howard's humble enough to not get into a pissing contest with Kobe over whose team it is. Furthermore, the Lakers would also get a young point man in Flynn, who might be a bust as a lottery pick but has to be an upgrade over Derek Fisher's rotting corpse and Steve Blake almost by default.

Why The Trade Works For Houston: Kevin Martin is no more capable of being a star than Turkoglu or Redick are. He's a fine shooter with an ugly form who knows how to put up numbers on bad teams. He's a guard version of Chris Bosh. Houston's success throughout its history has been predicated on having a good big man. It was the case during the Ralph Sampson era then when Hakeem Olajuwon came to town and most recently with the drafting of Yao Ming in 2002. The Rockets have made it no secret they have a hard-on for Pau and, while Gasol might not like it in Houston, going to the Rockets allows Gasol to get the respect and attention he's not getting playing second fiddle to Kobe in Laker Land. It seems like Houston is giving up a lot but keep in mind that the team probably wasn't going to keep Flynn and Thabeet(both horrendous draft busts with other teams) after this season and Martin has never and will never be the star that Gasol was or is. By moving Martin and replacing him with Redick, J.J. gets to finally crack a starting lineup and fulfill his calling as this generation's Mark Price(except slightly taller and a bit drunker). Redick has come along as the Magic's chief shooter off the bench but major minutes were always going to be tough sitting behind the Vince Carters and Jason Richardsons of the world. The Turkoglu contract is a bit steep but it's a fair price to pay when you consider what the other two teams are giving up.

Why It Works For The Magic: First and foremost, it finally ends the round-the-clock speculation and questioning over Howard's future. There's no perfect way to replace a franchise big man. It took Orlando a decade to replace Shaq. By bringing in Bynum(and even Thabeet) and putting them under the tutelage of assistant coach and future Hall of Fame center Patrick Ewing, the Magic might end up doing alright here. With Howard now officially gone, the team can focus on re-signing forward Ryan Anderson, who's having a career season in his contract year(always a red flag, but whatever) and the Magic could still contend with a Bynum-Anderson-Richardson-Martin-Nelson, especially with the Howard headache out of the way. If Ewing can salvage Thabeet and turn him into even something slightly resembling the "next Dikembe Mutombo" billing he had coming out of college, then he's worth the risk. If not, he's a free agent at the end of the year anyway. Obviously, the hope for Orlando is that Bynum's knees stay in tact. If he continues to break down, then it's back to the drawing board. Still, at least you got something in return.

Look, it's not a perfect deal but it's an idea. Sure, there's going to be reluctance by the Magic to see their poster child center in the purple and gold yet again but that's the breaks. Much like the Cavs with LeBron, the team had years to build a winner around their young cornerstone and failed thanks to bad trades and foolish signings. Much like the Cavs and LeBron, the team thought that an NBA Finals appearance, albeit an unsuccessful one, would give their franchise player a sign of what might come and convince him to stick around. Much like the Cavs and LeBron, that theory was flawed and they'll watch said franchise player exit stage left. There are plenty of precedents here for the Magic to learn from and not follow suit. The Hornets went about this same issue the right way. The Nuggets did not but eventually recovered. The Cavs couldn't have handled it any worse(though, could you imagine the riots in Cleveland had the Cavs actually traded LeBron prior to "The Decision"). Basketball isn't rocket science, despite all the fancy numbers and the hiring of big brains like Rockets GM Daryl Morey. Sometimes, to build a winner, all you need is luck, timing and some common sense.

The writing is on the wall for the Orlando Magic. It's not written in invisible ink. Dwight Howard has to go. Dwight Howard wants to go.

No good comes from delaying the inevitable. Just ask Nuggets fans before February 21, 2011.