The NFL trading deadline has come and gone. Your big winner of Trade Deadline '09? Linebacker Will Witherspoon, who was traded from the lowly Rams to the not-nearly-as-good-as-we-thought Eagles in exchange for a 5th round pick and receiver you probably don't care about. NFL bloggers and insiders from SI's Peter King to ESPN's Adam Schefter have been vehement in their declaration to fans that this year's deadline, like most years' deadlines, isn't going to have a lot of headline-grabbing moves. Granted, we saw guys like Braylon Edwards, Gaines Adams and Richard Seymour move in the season's first 6 weeks. The NFL, as Schefter and King kept telling us, isn't baseball or basketball, where big names are moved around midseason annually.
My question? Why the hell not? I know, I know, 6 weeks into a season is a bit early for fire sales to commence and if bad teams start feeling pressured to sell off their most valuable assets before the season's halfway point, then the NFL will end up like the NBA and MLB where the cellar dwellers act as feeder teams for the perennial upper echelon. I get that. But, how about a little more sizzle? Why make mention of a trade deadline if the only guys finding new homes are journeymen linebackers like Witherspoon? Of course, the evolution of social networking has allowed a vast majority of idiot fan boys to either blog about or ask about moronic, non-sensical trades that are more self-serving rumor mill gossip than anything newsworthy. For instance, on Twitter, you can find numerous re-tweets from Schefter of idiot fans asking about trades such as Steven Jackson for Ryan Grant or Brady Quinn for Tony Romo or well, you get the picture.
So, in an effort to stick up for the minority of bloggers with at least some common sense and football knowledge, I compiled a list of guys who probably SHOULD have been dealt before today's 4 PM deadline and where I thought they should go.
1. Brady Quinn, QB, Browns
Where he should have went: Seattle-I suggested the Seahawks go after Quinn on SportsTalkBuzz, and I stand by that suggestion. Look, some first round QBs take time to develop. Guys like Matt Ryan or Big Ben or Dan Marino are a rare breed. Quinn's problems in Cleveland were plentiful. One, he came into camp late thanks to a contract squabble and inevitably fell behind then-surprise sensation Derek Anderson for the starter gig. That's not to say that Quinn should have started had he reported on time, but you have to remember this about Quinn: He was a Notre Damn product, whom the Browns had just sold the farm for and gave a big contract to and by missing time in camp, he added more weight onto his shoulders. We all know how the story eventually shook out for Quinn. Anderson shook up the world, then came back to Earth, Quinn took over, got hurt, Romeo Crennel gets fired, Eric Mangini comes in, there's a competition between Quinn and Anderson, Quinn wins and before the sun can shine on October, Mangini benches him and has shown no sign in pulling Anderson despite the fact he's been abysmal. That means only one thing: Quinn's played his last days in Cleveland.
So why Seattle, you ask? The Seahawks need a young QB behind Matt Hasselbeck, who's 33 and becoming more and more fragile. Current backup Seneca Wallace will be 30 next season. Quinn's 25. That's pretty simple math. Theoretically, Hasselbeck plays one, maybe two more seasons before hanging it up. With Quinn on the roster, he would have learned behind an experienced veteran for two years(as opposed to learning from Anderson, a Ravens throw-away who unbelievably had everything bounce his way in his first season as starter) and would allow the Seahawks to build up enough talent elsewhere so that Quinn doesn't have to do everything himself when his time came to take over(a problem that surfaced in Cleveland once the Browns traded Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards couldn't chisel the stone off his hands). Plus, Mangini clearly wants to get rid of Quinn, which means he'll deal him for cheap. If you can get a 25-year old QB with considerable tools for a Day 2 pick, you do it, right? It's better than taking a rookie in the first round and paying him some ridiculous contract. So Quinn would go to Seattle, sit a couple years, let the O-Line build up, learn from Hasselbeck and in a year or two, he's ready to go. If he fails, so what? It only cost you a 3rd or 4th.
2. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
Where he should have went: New England-I understand the Rams not wanting to pay the big cost of moving Jackson midseason(around 5.5 million dollar cap hit), but this team is going nowhere and eventually, you have to think Jackson's going to get pissed and force their hand. Sure, at 26, Jackson is the type of back you'd like to build your team around, but this team is 3 or 4 years away from even being considered a contender and by then, Jackson will be 30 and damaged goods. Why not strike while the iron is hot? If you can snatch a 1st, 3rd and disgruntled linebacker Adalius Thomas away from the Pats in exchange for the running back you've been looking for since Curtis Martin left, I say you do it. The Rams could use the extra picks in what looks like a very deep draft and Belichick can quit trying to get by with journeymen like Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris. Jackson's big, fast and can catch out of the backfield, and while being a bit injury-prone, he's definitely worth the gamble for the Pats.
3. Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs
Where he should have went: Houston-LJ was once a promising, young franchise back like Steven Jackson. Now he's a washed-up power back with a big contract. The Chiefs would probably take 10 cents on the dollar for Johnson, who is averaging a pitiful 2.7 yards per carry. At 230 lbs with a little bit of zip left, he'd be a solid short-yardage back for a team that's already lost two games this season because of their inability to punch it in on the goal line. Look, Chris Brown isn't cutting it and the combination of Johnson's power with Steve Slaton's speed makes the Texans much more dangerous on the ground and, in turn, more dangerous on offense. As for the Chiefs, it relieves them of one of their biggest headaches and let's face it, they can get 2.7 yards per carry just as easy from Jamaal Charles or even free agent RB Duece McAllister. If you can snatch away a 5th rounder to shed some payroll and build chemistry, I say do it.
4. Shawne Merriman, LB, Chargers
Where he should have went: Green Bay-At first glance, this seems like one of those self-serving prophecies I was criticizing earlier, but hear me out. The Packers showed in the Vikings Monday night game that they lack a pass-rush as former Pro Bowl DE Aaron Kampman(whose name will come up here soon enough) isn't getting it done in his new role as an OLB in Dom Capers' 3-4 scheme. The Packers also have something the Chargers desperately need: a spare nose tackle. DT Ryan Pickett has done well in clogging the middle as the nose tackle, but he's approaching 30 and in a contract year and we all know that job will be go to first rounder B.J. Raji before the season ends. With Pickett not likely to get re-signed, he could be a nice rental for a Chargers team that needs a fill-in for Jamal Williams, who is on the IR. Merriman, like Pickett, is also looking for a new deal and if he can prove worthy in Green Bay, the Packers certainly have the cap room to pay up for Lights Out(since Kampman probably won't be re-signed). Of course, the Packers have bigger issues, which brings me to....
5. Aaron Kampman, DE/LB, Packers
Where he should have went: Cincinnati-In the wake of the loss of current NFL sack leader Antwan Odom to injury, I'm surprised the Bengals didn't make a move for another pass rusher before the deadline. Kampman, a pass rush machine with his hand on the ground as a DE, would have been the perfect fill-in for Odom and would have allowed Kampman to be in a scheme he's more comfortable in. In exchange for Kampman, the Bengals could have sent promising left tackle Anthony Collins, who was pushed aside for first rounder Andre Smith at left tackle. Collins could step in for the recently injured Chad Clifton on the left side and then slide to the right once Clifton comes back and fill in for Mark Tauscher, who is still recovering from knee surgery. Kampman, on the other hand, is in the last year of his deal, but now that's back in the 4-3, he can use the last 10 games as motivation to improve on his numbers to get his price tag up for the offseason. Look, I love Aaron Kampman. He has a tireless work ethic and he's a nightmare to offenses, but the team knew going in that he wasn't a fit for the new 3-4 and Kampman has done nothing to quell those doubts. If the Packers wanted to contend this season, it would have been more aggressive in improving the offensive line and used a premier pass rusher like Kampman as a solid trade chip.
6. Terrell Owens, WR, Bills
Where he should have went: Baltimore-The Bills season died when they fired the offensive coordinator midway into preseason. That move stalled the offense which essentially started the timer on the T.O. Ticking Time Bomb. Now, Owens has been relatively quiet in terms of throwing his teammates under the bus as refuge for his terrible start, but it's only a matter of time before Mount Terrell erupts. The Owens signing made sense until the team traded away left tackle Jason Peters on draft day and basically assuring QB Trent Edwards that he will not be having time to throw this season. Then came the firing of OC Turk Schonert and it's been downhill ever since. So why not cut your losses and get at least a little something for T.O.? Granted, the Baltimore offense isn't what is hurting the team and the Ravens might be better suited going after a Shawne Merriman or a corner like Sheldon Brown, but T.O.'s presence on offense demands attention(both good and bad) and with Ray Lewis still in that locker room, T.O.'s antics won't fly for very long. While no longer the threat he once was, Owens can still be productive in an offense with a strong offensive line and run game that can help boost the passing game, which the Ravens have and for a 3rd or 4th round pick, that's not a bad deal for 10 games of T.O.'s service.
That's it. That's the list. Now, you'll notice I didn't have guys who have been dominating the trade rumor circus like Brandon Marshall, Anquan Boldin, Darnell Dockett, Glenn Dorsey, or Dwayne Bowe on there. That is for various reasons.
In the case of Marshall, the Broncos are 6-0 and he finally seems to be genuinely happy in Denver and the Broncos seem much more willing to work on an extension with him than they were two months ago.
As for Boldin and Dockett, it seems unlikely that the Cards will pay both men as well as linebacker Karlos Dansby, but if the team wants to make another run while QB Kurt Warner is still playing at a high level, they'll need continued production from both men. Besides, Warner came back to Arizona under the assumption that Boldin would be sticking around, so dealing him midseason would only disrupt the trust between Warner and the team.
For the Chiefs, it's too early to cut the cord on Dorsey. Yes, he hasn't been productive thus far and, Yes, he's not a good fit in the 3-4, but at this rate, what are you going to get for a injury-prone DT with weight issues who hasn't done anything in the pros as of yet? Dorsey's got a few more years on his deal, which means he has more opportunity to prove his worth and get his value up. As for Bowe, he's in coach Todd Haley's doghouse, but if the team is going to make a franchise QB out of Matt Cassel, they'll need a solid WR like Bowe to be on the receiving end of Cassel's throws. Unless you're getting a good young receiver back in exchange(like Haley's old buddy, Boldin), you're not sending a good message to the fans by dealing away one its most promising talents.
Showing posts with label Steven Jackson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Steven Jackson. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Who's Playing For Second?
With a rather mundane NBA playoffs and a baseball regular season in its infancy that has registered more bad news than good as of late, it's important to remember one fact: WE'RE ONLY MONTHS AWAY FROM PRE-SEASON FOOTBALL!!! While exhibition games are nothing to get your TiVo ready over, pre-season also means the start of fantasy football drafts. Come on, people!! It's never too early to talk fantasy football, right? Right? (awkward silence). Anyway, while picking at the end of the draft has always been a preferred strategy of mine(as well as, I'm sure, many others), this upcoming season makes that strategy more crucial than ever. With Vikings running back Adrian Peterson now the consensus top overall pick, the question remains.....who's #2? Fear not, BoomRoastedSports readers(all 4 of you), I have done some research.....here are your top candidates(Note: This is in no particular order):
1. Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Upside: He's the NFL's newest version of Marshall Faulk. A versitile swiss-army knife that racks up points by both running and recieving. As the Eagles only proven option, Westbrook stands to have the best shot at garnering # 2 pick value. Now, the Eagles proved last season they aren't very good around the goal-line, but Westbrook stands to get at least some red zone touches. Plus, the Eagles get the AFC West this year, home of three of the worst run defenses in the NFL(KC, Oakland and Denver). Also, he has a better chance than ever before to kick the injury bug as rookie LeSean McCoy will be used to keep Westbrook fresh down the stretch.
Downside: He's the NFL's version of Marshall Faulk....after the Madden Curse. Westbrook's inability to stay healthy has been well-documented, having never played a full 16 games. Also, the Eagles have always been a passing team and would appear to be more so with the addition of 1st round pick Jeremy Maclin and, while that doesn't exactly hurt Westbrook given his ability to catch the ball, it means less value on the ground. There's also the presence of McCoy. While the Eagles have been saying for years that they were going to keep Westbrook fresh by using a bevy of late-round pick backs(Correll Buckhalter, Tony Hunt, Ryan Moats), it never really ends up that way. Even if Shady proves to be a valuable backup to Westbrook, the better he does stands to take yards and points away from Westbrook.
2. Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams
Upside: Like Westbrook, he's a threat in the run game and the passing game. Unlike Westbrook, nobody's taking carries from The Dreadlock Monster. At 240 pounds with nimble feet and surprising speed, Jackson is a load to handle. Jackson's troubles over the past two seasons have alot to do with a swiss-cheese offensive line and the Rams hope they've erradicated that problem with the first round selection of Baylor left tackle Jason Smith. The Rams, for the first time in a long time, lack a true top-flight reciever which means Jackson will get a lot of work this year, which could mean a lot of points for you. Is another 90 catch season out of the question? I don't think so.
Downside: Jackson's wildly inconsistant. Some weeks he'll tear the walls down like he did last season against Dallas and some weeks he'll be a non-factor. Also, his physical style always seems to a litany of injuries(albeit nothing major yet). Another obvious red flag? The Rams aren't very good, which means this team will be passing most of the time in the second half this season. While Smith is certianly a welcomed addition(over the legendary but clearly declining Orlando Pace), it remains to be seen whether he can run block after coming out of a passing offense at Baylor. Also, while the lack of a proven reciever might give Jackson more touches, it also means he'll have more men in the box trying to stop him. Sure, 90 catches isn't out of the question, but unless someone else emerges, it might be wishful thinking.
3. Clinton Portis, RB, Washington Redskins
Upside: Portis always seems to be overlooked by people still writing him off as either injury-prone or a system running back, but Portis is the goods. With the exception of an injury-shortened 2006, Portis has garnered at least 1200 yards since entering the league. He has a solid offensive line, great speed, and is a factor out of the backfield on passing downs. Plus, improvements on defense(the drafting of Brian Orakpo, the signing of Albert Haynesworth) means Portis could see more time on the field than in years past. He's also still only 27 and while he isn't the biggest of backs, he has some more tread on those legs. Plus, like Westbrook, Portis draws the light defenses of the AFC West this year and with the NFC East tempertures dropping during the second half of the season, the Redskins will be more likely to run during December(i.e. fantasy playoffs) than pass into the swirling winds.
Downside: The injury-prone label isn't what it used to be(Portis has played the full 16 the past 2 seasons) but the lack of a true backup to give Portis a breather only leaves him more vulnerable to injury. He's also sharing with the backfield with a quarterback with a chip on his shoulder after nearly being replaced twice in a span of a month. You think Jason Campbell, in a contract year, isn't trying to air it out this season? Then, of course, there's last season's tiff with head coach Jim Zorn. Who knows what happens to Portis if his mouth lands him in Zorn's doghouse?
4. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
Upside: As you may know, the last time Brady played a full-season, he threw 50 touchdown passes and shattered passing records week-by-week. This year, he's back with a vengeance and he still has old buddies Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to, not to mention the additions of Joey Galloway and Alex Smith. He also gets to feast on AFC East secondaries again and the hunger to make up for last season(as well as blowing their shot at a perfect season two years ago) will only motivate the league's best QB. Sure, the loss of OC Josh McDaniels hurts, but the Pats have proven to be able to replace coordinators before. Also, the Pats improved the running game with the addition of Fred Taylor, meaning teams will have to respect both the run and the pass.
Downside: To use an old boxing cliche', everyone has a plan 'til they get hit. The fact remains that Brady hasn't been on the field in a meaningful game until his knee crumpled to pieces against the Chiefs last September. While Brady is on schedule to be 100% by Opening Day, there's just no telling how jittery he'll get under pressure if he feels a bit uncertian about his knee. Also, the AFC East has gotten a little better since Brady last gazed upon it. The Bills added T.O. and pass-rushing dynamo Aaron Maybin. The Jets revamped their defense even further with Lito Sheppard and Bart Scott and the Dolphins aren't the same 1-15 laughing stocks they were two years ago. Carson Palmer returned from a torn ACL after rigourous workouts(in a much shorter span, too) and played admirable in his first season back from surgery. Daunte Culpepper did not. So the biggest question remains how Brady responds to his first major pro injury.
5. Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Upside: While Brady was on crutches, Manning spent last season adding another MVP to his trophy case. As the NFL's cerebral assassin, Manning's ability to pick apart defenses with his laser rocket arm gets better with each passing season. With the addition of RB Donald Brown, Manning now has two young backs who can be factors in the passing game. Oh, and there's still Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Sure, the old staples are gone. Marvin Harrison was cut and Tony Dungy and some of the offensive staff retired, but Manning has always been the head coach of the offense and if he can win an MVP coming off two knee surgeries, who knows what he can do with a clean bill of health. Like Brady, Manning's value will be determined by your league's emphasis on passing stats, but if you're looking for the safest pick in the draft, it's definitely Peyton.
Downside: Manning also has the daunting task of playing in the league's toughest division. The Jags, Titans and Texans all have legitimate shots at making the playoffs. Manning is also 33 and not exactly the most mobile of quarterbacks. While Manning has always been Superman when it comes to avoiding the injury bug, the same could've been said about Brady at the start of last year. Plus, while Harrison lost a few steps, it still remains to be seen whether third-year man Anthony Gonzalez can fit in those shoes. Manning-to-Harrison was one of, if not the, greatest passing combos in league history and you can't just replace that with a few OTAs and training camps. Plus, you're using the 2nd pick on a quarterback, albeit a great one. While Manning is as steady as they come, Brady should be a warning sign to anyone using high picks on quarterbacks, particularly stationary targets who just lost the only offensive line coach they've ever had.
6. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Upside: He's the league's most dynamic offensive weapon. He's big, he has huge hands, he can jump to the ceiling and he has stealthy quickness. He also plays with a quarterback with some experience in dynamic passing attacks and a #2 reciever(for now) who can keep the double teams off of him. While last year's playoffs was Fitz's coming-out party, Fitzgerald has lived up to the hype as the NFL's next great reciever since entering the league in 2004. Fitzgerald also has the benefit of a division lacking in top flight pass defenses(particularly Seattle, although they've improved some in the offseason). Sure, taking a wideout with the 2nd pick is a bit ballsy, but with so much uncertianty at the top, it might be smarter to just opt for the safer, albeit uncommon, choice.
Downside: Well, first off, there's the Madden Curse. Fitzgerald will be joining Steelers safety Troy Polamalu on the cover of Madden 10, which always spells danger for somebody's limbs. There's also the status of teammate Anquan Boldin, who wants out of Arizona and is still on the trade market. Also, the label of Best NFL WR always seems to fluctuate from year to year and while Fitzgerald has always been consistant, it's a bit of a crapshoot to predict that he'll have better numbers than fellow recievers like Steve Smith, Andre Johnson and Chad Johnson. There's also the advanced age of QB Kurt Warner. While Warner was healthy all of last season, he's still pushing 40 and it goes without saying that backup Matt Leinart is a significant downgrade if Leinart's forced to come in relief.
So there you go. Of course, scoring systems and pre-season injuries will dictate what you do on Draft Day, but at least you know that you have this blog to look over for the next 3 months until you go on the clock.
---Dave
1. Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Upside: He's the NFL's newest version of Marshall Faulk. A versitile swiss-army knife that racks up points by both running and recieving. As the Eagles only proven option, Westbrook stands to have the best shot at garnering # 2 pick value. Now, the Eagles proved last season they aren't very good around the goal-line, but Westbrook stands to get at least some red zone touches. Plus, the Eagles get the AFC West this year, home of three of the worst run defenses in the NFL(KC, Oakland and Denver). Also, he has a better chance than ever before to kick the injury bug as rookie LeSean McCoy will be used to keep Westbrook fresh down the stretch.
Downside: He's the NFL's version of Marshall Faulk....after the Madden Curse. Westbrook's inability to stay healthy has been well-documented, having never played a full 16 games. Also, the Eagles have always been a passing team and would appear to be more so with the addition of 1st round pick Jeremy Maclin and, while that doesn't exactly hurt Westbrook given his ability to catch the ball, it means less value on the ground. There's also the presence of McCoy. While the Eagles have been saying for years that they were going to keep Westbrook fresh by using a bevy of late-round pick backs(Correll Buckhalter, Tony Hunt, Ryan Moats), it never really ends up that way. Even if Shady proves to be a valuable backup to Westbrook, the better he does stands to take yards and points away from Westbrook.
2. Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams
Upside: Like Westbrook, he's a threat in the run game and the passing game. Unlike Westbrook, nobody's taking carries from The Dreadlock Monster. At 240 pounds with nimble feet and surprising speed, Jackson is a load to handle. Jackson's troubles over the past two seasons have alot to do with a swiss-cheese offensive line and the Rams hope they've erradicated that problem with the first round selection of Baylor left tackle Jason Smith. The Rams, for the first time in a long time, lack a true top-flight reciever which means Jackson will get a lot of work this year, which could mean a lot of points for you. Is another 90 catch season out of the question? I don't think so.
Downside: Jackson's wildly inconsistant. Some weeks he'll tear the walls down like he did last season against Dallas and some weeks he'll be a non-factor. Also, his physical style always seems to a litany of injuries(albeit nothing major yet). Another obvious red flag? The Rams aren't very good, which means this team will be passing most of the time in the second half this season. While Smith is certianly a welcomed addition(over the legendary but clearly declining Orlando Pace), it remains to be seen whether he can run block after coming out of a passing offense at Baylor. Also, while the lack of a proven reciever might give Jackson more touches, it also means he'll have more men in the box trying to stop him. Sure, 90 catches isn't out of the question, but unless someone else emerges, it might be wishful thinking.
3. Clinton Portis, RB, Washington Redskins
Upside: Portis always seems to be overlooked by people still writing him off as either injury-prone or a system running back, but Portis is the goods. With the exception of an injury-shortened 2006, Portis has garnered at least 1200 yards since entering the league. He has a solid offensive line, great speed, and is a factor out of the backfield on passing downs. Plus, improvements on defense(the drafting of Brian Orakpo, the signing of Albert Haynesworth) means Portis could see more time on the field than in years past. He's also still only 27 and while he isn't the biggest of backs, he has some more tread on those legs. Plus, like Westbrook, Portis draws the light defenses of the AFC West this year and with the NFC East tempertures dropping during the second half of the season, the Redskins will be more likely to run during December(i.e. fantasy playoffs) than pass into the swirling winds.
Downside: The injury-prone label isn't what it used to be(Portis has played the full 16 the past 2 seasons) but the lack of a true backup to give Portis a breather only leaves him more vulnerable to injury. He's also sharing with the backfield with a quarterback with a chip on his shoulder after nearly being replaced twice in a span of a month. You think Jason Campbell, in a contract year, isn't trying to air it out this season? Then, of course, there's last season's tiff with head coach Jim Zorn. Who knows what happens to Portis if his mouth lands him in Zorn's doghouse?
4. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
Upside: As you may know, the last time Brady played a full-season, he threw 50 touchdown passes and shattered passing records week-by-week. This year, he's back with a vengeance and he still has old buddies Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to, not to mention the additions of Joey Galloway and Alex Smith. He also gets to feast on AFC East secondaries again and the hunger to make up for last season(as well as blowing their shot at a perfect season two years ago) will only motivate the league's best QB. Sure, the loss of OC Josh McDaniels hurts, but the Pats have proven to be able to replace coordinators before. Also, the Pats improved the running game with the addition of Fred Taylor, meaning teams will have to respect both the run and the pass.
Downside: To use an old boxing cliche', everyone has a plan 'til they get hit. The fact remains that Brady hasn't been on the field in a meaningful game until his knee crumpled to pieces against the Chiefs last September. While Brady is on schedule to be 100% by Opening Day, there's just no telling how jittery he'll get under pressure if he feels a bit uncertian about his knee. Also, the AFC East has gotten a little better since Brady last gazed upon it. The Bills added T.O. and pass-rushing dynamo Aaron Maybin. The Jets revamped their defense even further with Lito Sheppard and Bart Scott and the Dolphins aren't the same 1-15 laughing stocks they were two years ago. Carson Palmer returned from a torn ACL after rigourous workouts(in a much shorter span, too) and played admirable in his first season back from surgery. Daunte Culpepper did not. So the biggest question remains how Brady responds to his first major pro injury.
5. Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Upside: While Brady was on crutches, Manning spent last season adding another MVP to his trophy case. As the NFL's cerebral assassin, Manning's ability to pick apart defenses with his laser rocket arm gets better with each passing season. With the addition of RB Donald Brown, Manning now has two young backs who can be factors in the passing game. Oh, and there's still Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Sure, the old staples are gone. Marvin Harrison was cut and Tony Dungy and some of the offensive staff retired, but Manning has always been the head coach of the offense and if he can win an MVP coming off two knee surgeries, who knows what he can do with a clean bill of health. Like Brady, Manning's value will be determined by your league's emphasis on passing stats, but if you're looking for the safest pick in the draft, it's definitely Peyton.
Downside: Manning also has the daunting task of playing in the league's toughest division. The Jags, Titans and Texans all have legitimate shots at making the playoffs. Manning is also 33 and not exactly the most mobile of quarterbacks. While Manning has always been Superman when it comes to avoiding the injury bug, the same could've been said about Brady at the start of last year. Plus, while Harrison lost a few steps, it still remains to be seen whether third-year man Anthony Gonzalez can fit in those shoes. Manning-to-Harrison was one of, if not the, greatest passing combos in league history and you can't just replace that with a few OTAs and training camps. Plus, you're using the 2nd pick on a quarterback, albeit a great one. While Manning is as steady as they come, Brady should be a warning sign to anyone using high picks on quarterbacks, particularly stationary targets who just lost the only offensive line coach they've ever had.
6. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Upside: He's the league's most dynamic offensive weapon. He's big, he has huge hands, he can jump to the ceiling and he has stealthy quickness. He also plays with a quarterback with some experience in dynamic passing attacks and a #2 reciever(for now) who can keep the double teams off of him. While last year's playoffs was Fitz's coming-out party, Fitzgerald has lived up to the hype as the NFL's next great reciever since entering the league in 2004. Fitzgerald also has the benefit of a division lacking in top flight pass defenses(particularly Seattle, although they've improved some in the offseason). Sure, taking a wideout with the 2nd pick is a bit ballsy, but with so much uncertianty at the top, it might be smarter to just opt for the safer, albeit uncommon, choice.
Downside: Well, first off, there's the Madden Curse. Fitzgerald will be joining Steelers safety Troy Polamalu on the cover of Madden 10, which always spells danger for somebody's limbs. There's also the status of teammate Anquan Boldin, who wants out of Arizona and is still on the trade market. Also, the label of Best NFL WR always seems to fluctuate from year to year and while Fitzgerald has always been consistant, it's a bit of a crapshoot to predict that he'll have better numbers than fellow recievers like Steve Smith, Andre Johnson and Chad Johnson. There's also the advanced age of QB Kurt Warner. While Warner was healthy all of last season, he's still pushing 40 and it goes without saying that backup Matt Leinart is a significant downgrade if Leinart's forced to come in relief.
So there you go. Of course, scoring systems and pre-season injuries will dictate what you do on Draft Day, but at least you know that you have this blog to look over for the next 3 months until you go on the clock.
---Dave
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