By now, we have a general idea of how the first round(and maybe even the playoffs) is going to shake out as nearly every series will be at least two games in by time you read this. So, let's fast forward through all the playoff previewing and attack the NBA offseason as if it will be upon us in the coming days and then, we'll finish strong with the obligatory regular season recap/postseason preview.
For now, I want to address the ten most important names I believe we will hear about throughout this summer and the type of headlines we should expect so that our brains are adjusted to it by time it's all jammed down our throats.
1. and 2. Derrick Rose, PG, Chicago Bulls and Dwight Howard, C, Orlando Magic(tentatively) - I'll group these two together for a number of reasons. One, neither will take another dribble the rest of this postseason thanks to injury(Rose's knee and Howard's back). Second, how these two's respective teams do these next few weeks in their absence will determine how big of a story we're looking at going forward. For Rose, the Bulls have performed admirably throughout the season without the league's defending MVP. While it seems unrealistic that the Bulls can run the table with Pooh sitting on the bench in a suit, Chicago remains a solid contender in a very weak East even with their best player sidelined. Stranger things have happened. As for Howard, every Orlando win in these playoffs increases the likelihood he'll be playing elsewhere by the time next season tips off(which is a near-certainty, regardless). As I mentioned a couple weeks ago, now that Howard has re-cast himself as a selfish NBA villain, D-12 haters will be coming out of the woodwork to root for the Magic to do well just to spite their sullen big man. There's no better storyline to push for this postseason than the Magic shocking the world and going on a magic carpet ride in what might be beleaguered coach Stan Van Gundy's last hurrah in South Florida while Howard watches helplessly from the bench.
The third reason is more of a grand "What if.."? If Howard is absolutely leaving town and the Bulls absolutely are dead in the water with D.Rose out(which is the majority decision by experts but remains to be seen), what's stopping someone from putting two and two together and start beating the drum for a Bulls-Magic trade that would bring Howard to Chicago? As we saw with Chris Paul inevitably landing with the Clippers, somebody always sneaks up during these blockbuster trades and snatches a big name when talks with other teams go dormant. Where's the market for Howard? Outside of Brooklyn, whose situation is tied to whether PG Deron Williams stays or not, what other suitors are out there for Doomsday? With Andrew Bynum's career resurgence this year, you'd have to think the Lakers are out unless something happens in these playoffs that tempts them into shaking up the roster much like everyone wanted them to do last year. Chicago fits all the parameters for a Howard trade. They have the talent to deal(Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, Carlos Boozer, and C.J. Watson, whose stock is sure to rise filling in for Rose). They are a legit contender(something Brooklyn isn't, and probably never will be) and it will be a great marriage of one of the league's best point guards and one of the game's best defensive coaches with the game's best center/interior defender.
Look, Howard's good as gone and if Chicago's supporting cast fails to look at least somewhat formidable in Rose's absence, there's going to be talk as to whether this team will suffice for Rose's revenge year next season. The Bulls were mentioned as a target for Howard last season and, with the once-heavily favored Lakers potentially out of the race, somebody has to jump in. Why not the Bulls?
3. LeBron James, F, Miami Heat - Adding that third MVP is nice but we all know the drill by now with King James and the Miami Heat: This season is championship or bust. With Rose and Howard out, the Celtics aging and the West uncertain, the skids are greased for LeBron to finally win his first ring. If last season lead to tons of backlash against "The Akron Hammer" for not bringing a championship trophy back to South Beach, what do you think this summer will be like with Miami's degree of difficulty now made significantly easier? We're two games away from Miami completing their mopping of the floor of the New York Knicks unless we get one of those classic "This is my team and I'm not going down easy" turnarounds from Carmelo Anthony and 'Melo vs. 'Bron turns into the clash we all hoped it would be when both came to town nine years ago. That means in Round 2, LeBron and company get to feast on either a Howard-less Magic team or a Still-Not-Quite-There-Yet Pacers squad before going to war with whatever's left from what should be a heated Celtics-Bulls series(assuming Boston can get by the Hawks) for a chance to get back to the Finals. With last year's nemesis, Dallas, two games from elimination, the most likely opponents for the Heat in the Finals are a suddenly rejuvenated Spurs team(which would be a terribly boring Finals but a great last hurrah for the Duncan/Popovich Spurs era), the Durant/Westbrook Thunder(which is the matchup everyone wants), a sneaky Lakers team or an even sneakier Grizzlies team(If they can get by the Clippers. If not, sub out Grizzlies and put in Clippers).
If it wasn't any more evident, this has to be the year LeBron brings it all home. Yes, there are two other superstars on the roster. It doesn't matter. Like it or not, it's all on LeBron's shoulders. So, this summer will either be all about King James coming full circle or an even more severe battery of "Can LeBron win The Big One?" debates.
4. Kobe Bryant, G, Los Angeles Lakers - Nearly as tantalizing as LeBron's chase for Ring #1 is "The Black Mamba"'s chase for Ring #6. A sixth ring ties him with the man whose career he's forever been linked to: The once incomparable Michael Jordan. If the road to the championship seems a bit easier for LeBron, the opposite can be said for Bryant's boys. This is easily the worst Lakers team, post-Shaq, since the first season without "The Diesel"(which ended in Phoenix taking them out in Round 1 in what was supposed to be Steve Nash's coming out year). There's no Phil Jackson. No Derek Fisher. No triangle offense. No ridiculous deep bench of role players. Instead, Kobe will have to rely on his Twin Towers up front. Bynum's coming of age season can be seen as a culmination of a man angry about being on the trading block and a kid who finally decided to grow up. Given Bynum's admission that he "gets his Zen on" during team huddles and the numerous head-scratching moments we've seen throughout this season, the latter isn't completely true. What we do know is Bynum's playing his best ball and he and Pau Gasol represent the best front line in basketball. The team also needs Ron Artest/Metta World Peace to keep his 'bow throwing to a minimum and manage to be the lockdown perimeter defender he once was without also being the Queensbridge goon. It doesn't help Kobe that this is a very deep Western playoffs. You can make the case for six teams going all the way in this conference(excluding Utah and Denver. Even Dallas down 2-0 isn't a death knell).
Bryant is getting up in age. His window for tying His Airness is closing as the odometer goes up and the competition gets more fierce. As remarkable as the seasons of guys like Durant and James have been, we might go into this summer marveling at what we just saw from #24: a man who aged better than we expected that saw his grips on the NBA slipping and gave it one last run before the inevitable passing of the torch to his younger counterparts. The Lakers are long shots to run the table but Kobe Bryant has proven that, with his back against the wall, he's as dangerous as the snake he stole his moniker from.
5. Danny Ainge, GM, Boston Celtics - Huh? Hear me out. If Boston is unable to get past Atlanta(let alone make another championship run), we'll look back at the trading deadline and wonder if the embattled Celtics GM made the right move in not breaking up "The Big Three" and rebuilding around Rajon Rondo as opposed to giving it one last shot with his aging vets. Ainge, reportedly, had deals in place that would have sent Ray Allen to Memphis in exchange for guard O.J. Mayo and Celtics legend Paul Pierce to New Jersey/Brooklyn for Mehmet Okur's expiring deal and the Top-3 protected lottery pick that went to Portland instead in exchange for Gerald Wallace. Signing off on both of those deals would have put the final nail in the coffin in what has been a great run for the Garnett-Allen-Pierce Celtics. It also would have set them up nicely for the future. With KG a free agent at season's end, the Celtics would have went into the summer with cap space, a solid young trio of Rondo, Mayo and rising star Avery Bradley as well as a lottery pick in a decent-yet-not-supremely deep draft. If that pick turns into Jared Sullinger or Harrison Barnes or even someone like Andre Drummond, that would be much better than what the C's will be looking at next season....which is to say, nothing.
We knew Boston's odds of making another title run with everything falling in place for LeBron and the Heat were going to be lofty. We didn't think they'd run out of gas as soon as the playoffs tipped off and risk getting upset by a game Hawks team. If the Celtics bow out early, Ainge's refusal to look ahead will be the "What if..?" that circles around Beantown all summer and the years ahead. Even when the team acquired Allen and Garnett a few years ago, we all knew this day was coming. Ainge should have, too. Now, we're passed the point where he can do something about it. If he thought the market for old-timers like Pierce and Allen was slim back in February, watch how quickly the market closes up once they show their age in the playoffs. Depending on whether Boston turns things around, Ainge will either be breathing a sigh of relief or kicking himself in the pants.
6. Blake Griffin, F, Los Angeles Clippers - All the time spent with our jaws on the floor and our eyes wider than Vince Carter's abdomen while watching Clippers highlights headlined by the NBA's newest dunking sensation, we seemed to have forgotten Griffin's a work in progress. An unfinished product. A project. His offense is pretty much a spin move to the hoop and charging the lane with reckless abandon in hopes of jumping over whoever's foolish enough to stand in his way to get dunked on. Like the early years of LeBron, Griffin is a superstar with flashes of brilliance but he isn't "great" yet. He's a freakishly athletic double-double machine whose career will benefit greatly from every step Chris Paul takes on the court in a Clippers uniform, but he's not "there" yet. He doesn't have that outside jumper that Tim Duncan will utilize for the next decade while he adds to his already-breathtaking resume. He isn't an intimidating post defender like Andrew Bynum or Serge Ibaka. He's Brock Lesnar with a 40' vertical. He's a monster, but even monsters find people valiant enough to slay them. Even James is slowly starting to realize he'll have to do more than drive to the hoop like a freight train and either score or draw the foul if he wants to be a champion in this league. This is Griffin's first taste of the postseason and he's getting a hell of a trail by fire by being matched up with an interior beast like Zach Randolph. However, when it's all said and done, much like the glory days of Vinsanity, Griffin will stop wowing us with his NBA Jam-style dunks and we'll start having to take his career a bit more seriously in terms of whether all those highlights are translating into something more substantial. Dunking over everyone you see is nice....if you're trying to get a cute nickname and a spot on the And1 Mixtape Tour. In the NBA, what impresses people the most is winning. Tim Duncan traded flash for the chance to be a four-time NBA champion and the greatest power forward to ever live a long time ago. Griffin will soon find out that his name will be on SportsCenter for more than just his posterizing jams as the pressure to bring some jewelry to an abused franchise mounts.
7. Chris Paul, G, Los Angeles Clippers - Sure, Paul will probably not garner as much attention as former Draft classmate and point guard rival Deron Williams this summer because Williams, unlike Paul, will be testing the market this offseason. However, Paul has the opportunity to reclaim his spot as the league's best point guard(an honor that was handed to Derrick Rose after his MVP season last year while Paul floundered on the Hornets) and create some serious buzz by giving the city of Los Angeles and its beloved Lakers a legit in-house rival. Paul helped spearhead a 27-point fourth quarter comeback in Game 1 to steal a W from the Grizzlies in what is the most intriguing of a slew of entertaining opening round matchups(Heat-Knicks, Thunder-Mavs, even Lakers-Nuggets). How the rest of the series goes is anyone's guess but it's fun to see CP3 commandeer a team with legit championship aspirations after being held back by poor management and penny-pinching in New Orleans. It also gives the Western Conference a certian "Oh, shit...." feeling. As we saw in last year's playoffs when Paul nearly single-handedly took down the Lakers in Round 1, Paul is a force to be reckoned with, especially in thr 4th quarter, when he decides to turn it on, bum knee be damned. It seems farfetched to think Paul can go too much further seeing how this series with Memphis is sure to be one of those hard-fought, seven-game, back-and-forth affairs that battles between two young and hungry teams tend to be and the winner will go on to face San Antonio, who can be had but not without a fight.
Paul's rebirth in L.A. is the type of thing that makes commissioner David Stern grin, even if Stern's decision to put the screws to the trade that would have sent Paul to the Lakers was one of the biggest bush league moves we've seen in years, because it gives the NBA another viable contender rather than strengthening an already great one. If Paul can make serious contenders out of a Clippers team that has been retched for years, then CP3's name will ring bells through the summer and give Lob City the kind of offseason sleeper buzz that is sure to drown out any fuss that the D-Will Sweepstakes will garner. For now, Paul and Griffin make the Clippers interesting and fun to watch and the winner of this series will emerge as a sneaky dark horse out West(especially since Memphis upset the Spurs in Round 1 last year). Congratulations are in order, regardless, for Paul, who is one of the NBA's true good guys and handled his desire to leave New Orleans with the type of class and respect that is in complete contrast to Dwight Howard's on-again, off-again posturing to skip town and for making a laughingstock into a contender that's no joke.
8. Amare Stoudemire, F, New York Knicks - The combination of being on vacation and gathering my NFL Draft thoughts(which will be posted tomorrow) prevented me from writing a suitable preview for the playoffs sooner. I'm glad it did because I would have completely missed out on one of the most peculiar stories and insanely boneheaded displays of aggression the sports world has seen in quite some time. Much like Dwight Howard and Derrick Rose, Amare Stoudemire will be watching his boys finish out the playoffs in a suit and tie at the end of the bench. Unlike D-Rose and D-12, Stoudemire's injury was caused when he decided to put his hand through a fire extinguisher case, like Andy Bernard busting through a wall after Jim Halpert steals his phone on The Office, and sidelined himself for the rest of a series with the Heat that is sure to be over soon anyway. Like with Howard, how the team performs in Amare's absence will go a long way in determining his future with the team. The Knicks already flirted with dealing Stoudemire after signing Tyson Chandler but, alas, teams were scared off by STAT's uninsured knees and albatross of a contract. If finding a taker for Amare was tough before, what exactly is the going rate of a injury-prone forward who can't play defense that just systematically took himself out of the playoffs by going Mike Tyson on a glass case? Furthermore, when has punching stuff ever solved ANYTHING? I'm no Ghandi. I'm not anti-violence. Lord knows I've punched a lot of things in moments of justified rage but, you know what, I realized how stupid it was after I found myself in intense pain with knuckles swollen to the size of a pregnant girl's nipples. You can try to justify the moment by saying Stoudemire was frustrated and not thinking clearly, but that "not thinking in the moment" theory didn't work when Metta World Peace landed The People's Elbow to James Harden's neck and it's not going to fly here. What Stoudemire did was stupid and if it was done out of anger because the offense is now flowing through Carmelo Anthony(only one of the best pure scorers of this generation) instead of Stoudemire than its another example in a long line of childish selfishness that has plagued this shortned NBA season.
Making matters worse, if the Knicks put up more of a fight against the Heat(or, at least, some semblance of a fight) with Stoudemire on the bench, then Amare's last moments as a Knick will be him picking shards of glass out of his hand. The Knicks WILL find a suitor for Stoudemire. It might not be the blockbuster one would hope when dealing a former All-Star but someone will take a chance on Amare the way teams foolishly still take chances on knuckleheads like Gilbert Arenas and J.R. Smith. Stoudemire's absence allows this to be 'Melo's team, 100%. It seems impossible that Anthony as a one-man show can hold off a three-headed monster in Miami but, again, how the team responds will determine Amare's fate this summer. For now, he's an overpaid shlub coming off a moment of sheer stupidity in what has to be the epitome of "cutting off your nose to spite your face".
9. Tim Duncan, F, San Antonio Spurs - Never before did basketball fans think they would ask questions like "Can someone quietly become the greatest player to ever play his position?" or "Can someone unsuspectingly become one of the 10 best basketball players of all-time?" but the answer to both of those questions are "Yes" and "....because Tim Duncan did it.". With a resume that would make Karl Malone piss in his Wranglers and Charles Barkley choke on his WeightWatchers, Tim Duncan is poised to add a fifth ring in a shortened NBA season where every expert had the aging Duncan and his gaggle of geezers put out to pasture. Bill Simmons mentioned this stat in his recent column and it's really astonishing when you think about it: If the Spurs win it all this year, it will be 14 years between Duncan's first ring and, presumably, his last one, which would be the largest gap between first and last titles in NBA history. 14 years! While it still seems farfetched, the Spurs still have a puncher's chance to be a problem in these playoffs. They have veteran savvy, the league's best coach and a legendary power forward that gets better with age. They are porn actress deep and they are playing with a chip on their shoulder because, as always, they have flown under the radar behind the flashier Thunder, Grizzlies and Clippers.
Still, Duncan adding to his legacy is every bit as interesting as Kobe's quest for his sixth title and LeBron and Durant's chase for their first. At 34, Duncan is an elder statesman in a league where stars are barely over the legal drinking age. The old man showed he's still got it in Game 1 with a status quo line of 17-11-5. The real test, however, comes in the next round where they'll either be faced with a rematch of last year's shocking upset to Memphis or a clash against the Clippers that will feature a showdown between Blake Griffin and Duncan that will be a battle of Fun vs. Fundamentals. Duncan and company are the story that get the least amount of pub. They're boring, unspectacular but, most importantly, wildly successful. A fifth ring would be a fitting way to close the show for the greatest big man of this generation. It may not have the pizazz of watching Griffin throw one down or a Kobe turnaround jumper but it will be just as interesting to watch and will allow Duncan to use this summer to get the attention he rightfully deserves.
10. Kevin Durant, F, Oklahoma City Thunder - As basketball fans, we will probably never get to see Kobe vs. LeBron in a seven-game series with a title on the line. We weren't fortunate, in this generation, to have those Bird-Magic moments or Russell vs. Chamberlain. The closest we've come to a real head-to-head matchup between legends was Olajuwon vs. Shaq in the mid-90's(and please don't try to sell me on Kobe vs. Pierce). Kid Dynamite has an opportunity to change all of that. With the only thing standing in LeBron's way of returning to the Finals being themselves, it's up to Durant to hold up his end of the bargain and deliver on the Finals appearance that they should have given us last year. Durant vs. James for the 2012 MVP has been one of this season's better stories and it should culminate in a showdown for all the marbles. It will also be a hell of a run for The Durantula. A trip to the Finals means Durant and company would have dispatched the defending champion Mavs, their heated rival Lakers and a clash of old school vs. new school against the scrappy Spurs before entering the Finals against a star-studded Heat team. NBA fans, execs and analysts want Thunder vs. Heat. The NBA NEEDS Thunder vs. Heat. We need a showdown like this on the biggest stage. Durant vs. James would be what Rodgers vs. Brees was supposed to be in the NFL Playoffs this past season(thanks a lot, Giants and Niners!).
If Durant fails, it will be because he once again couldn't co-exist with his best friend and teammate Russell Westbrook. It will be because the leaders of the new school got outclassed by wily old vets in L.A. or San Antonio and it will be a colossal failure for everyone involved. It will also lead to an offseason where Durant is faced with the same questions LeBron has been faced throughout his career as the leader of a perennial championship favorite. "Can he win The Big One?" "Does he need more help?" "Should they trade Westbrook?" "Should they fire Scott Brooks?". Durant has the chance to kill those questions before they start. He made his case for the MVP in Game 1 by leading a fourth quarter charge to upend the Mavs and sealing it with a last second jumper for the win(as if winning his third straight scoring title wasn't enough). The time has come for Durant to step up to LeBron and battle for the right to be the NBA's alpha dog, but that chance won't come if he's still fighting for that spot on his own team.
And now......the obligatory handing out of the hardware.
For starters, I nailed 15 of 16 playoff teams with the Jazz being the only miss(I had Portland instead). Granted, the seeding was wrong but the cast of characters are the same. Mostly.
COACH OF THE YEAR
Preseason pick: Rich Carlisle, Mavericks
Postseason pick: Gregg Popovich, Spurs
In December, I made the Spurs a playoff out of respect. Nobody thought the aging Spurs would be able to survive a short season of seemingly endless back-to-back games, but Pops rested his troops beautifully and the result is San Antonio is the West's top seed and a legit threat to winning a fifth title. The Mavs, meanwhile, swallowed a poison pill by acquiring Lamar Odom from the Lakers. Odom never felt comfortable in Dallas and the team seemed out of sorts all year. The result is the Mavs finished as the conference's 7 seed and are down 2-0 to the Thunder while Odom was sent packing. Popovich, as it was announced today, was already awarded Coach of the Year honors. A fitting tribute to arguably the greatest coach of this generation.
SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR
Preseason pick: Lamar Odom, Mavericks
Postseason pick: James Harden, Thunder
As you can tell, I was high on the Mavericks this season and I really thought Odom would use his exile from L.A. as motivation to really shine for the defending champs. What I didn't factor in was Odom's trademark moodiness and sensitivity which lead to Odom sulking throughout the season before the team told him to just stay home. Harden, however, averaged 16.8 points off the bench while shooting around 49% from the field and 39% from three. Oh, and he took a hellacious elbow to the neck from Metta World Peace.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Preseason pick: Derrick Williams, Timberwolves
Postseason pick: Kyrie Irving, Cavaliers
As a guy born and raised in Jersey, I'd love to Newark's own Kenny Faried steal this one because he's been an absolute beast on the boards for Denver. However, Irving shined the most out of a lackluster rookie class. Irving averaged 18.5 points per game with 5.4 assists for a miserable Cavs team despite missing some time with a myriad of injuries. Williams got lost in the shuffle in Minnesota, and averaged just under 9 points a game and just under 5 boards. Truth be told, Ricky Rubio seemed to have this award locked up before blowing out his knee.
MOST IMPROVED PLAYER
Preseason pick: none.....who can really predict that?
Postseason pick: Jeremy Lin, Knicks
You can make the case for a number of guys. Ryan Anderson in Orlando, "Boogie" Cousins in Sac-Town, even Andrew Bynum but, to me, this is a no-brainer. Linsanity was the talk of New York for a good six weeks and, if Mike D'Antoni is still coaching and Lin doesn't get hurt, who knows how Lin's season ends? Anytime you go from sleeping on your teammate's couch to the biggest sports star in New York.....a week after the Giants win the Super Bowl, you've achieved something big.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Preseason pick: Serge Ibaka, Thunder
Postseason pick: Tyson Chandler, Knicks
The overwhelming consensus seems to lean toward Chandler. I guess because he's the only one who actually plays defense on the Knicks. The Ibaka pick still looks strong, as he finished the season as the leader in blocked shots(whereas Chandler finished 19th). If there are a couple sleepers here, Indiana's Roy Hibbert improved a team that was dead last defensively last year. Andrew Bynum kept his defense strong all season, a point made emphatically with his 10 block performance in Game 1 against the Nuggets(Granted, that doesn't factor into a regular season award). My prediction is it goes to Chandler but, if I had a vote, I'd stick with Ibaka. One thing's for certain, after a year of flip-flopping and mailing it in, this award won't be going to Dwight Howard.
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
Preseason pick: Dwyane Wade, Heat
Postseason pick: LeBron James, Heat
Let me start off by saying that I think this award belong to Kevin Durant but that I think voters will give it to LeBron after foolishly shunning him last year as punishment for "The Decision". To me, when you lead the league in scoring for three straight years, you deserve to have something to show for it. LeBron is the best player in the league. He's always going to put up amazing stat lines and yearly numbers. However, LeBron's numbers are kind of like Kate Upton's cleavage: Breathtaking to look at but eventually you aren't impressed anymore and you look for something new
(Side note: I have no problem with Kate Upton's cleavage. I, honestly, can't get enough of it. In the history of the human race, no 19-year old has ever been has physically gifted and astoundingly beautiful as Kate Upton. Period. That's not even hyperbole. That's real talk. If you find me a woman under 20 that combined Upton's beauty, body, and sex appeal the way she has, I'm open to listening. She did for "The Dougie" and now, "The Cat Daddy" what Ali Landry did for Doritos, and what Tyra Banks did for five-heads...which is to say made them immensely sexy.)
NBA FINALS PREDICTION
Preseason pick: Heat over Grizzlies in 6
Postseason pick: Heat over Spurs in 5
I just have a bad feeling here. Look, I know I've been saying this entire blog that we're heading towards Thunder vs. Heat in the Finals but there's something about this Spurs team that makes it hard to pick against. We know the Heat's coming out of the East. That's without question. Every team that would oppose them is missing a star player(with the exception of Boston, who are just old). The West? Far more unpredictable. The Grizzlies are a tough out....except they might not get by the Clippers. The Thunder are the obvious favorites.....except the Lakers are in their heads. My heart says we'll get the Durant-LeBron matchup we're dying to see. My gut says the Spurs play tough D, keep everyone rested by going to their deep bench, sweep the Jazz, get revenge on the Grizz and then stun an overconfident Thunder team coming off a seven-game war with the Lakers.
Then, they go to the Finals and get completely overwhelmed by an immensely pissed LeBron, who won't let himself lose in two straight NBA Finals. Remember, we didn't get the Brees-Rodgers rematch we all wanted because some pesky team with a good D that nobody was checking for snuck in and broke up the party. The Spurs can be this year's Giants. I hope I'm wrong but you never know.
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