2022 NFL Preview/Week 1 Picks

A new NFL season gets underway tonight, which means it's time for the annual NFL Predictions Sure To Go Wrong followed by the first of a (hopefully) weekly attempt at picking games. 

AFC East: Buffalo Bills

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts

AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers

Wild Cards

5. Cincinnati Bengals

6. Las Vegas Raiders

7. Kansas City Chiefs

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC North: Green Bay Packers

NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC West:  Los Angeles Rams

Wild Cards

5. San Francisco 49ers

6. Dallas Cowboys

7. New Orleans Saints

NFC Championship: Eagles over Rams
AFC Championship: Bills over Chargers
Super Bowl: Bills over Eagles

MVP: Justin Herbert, QB, LA Chargers
Off. Player of the Year: Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Def. Player of the Year: Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns
Off. Rookie of the Year: Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Def. Rookie of the Year: Aiden Hutchinson, DE, Detroit Lions
Comeback Player of the Year: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
Coach of the Year: Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers

Week 1 Picks

Bills (-2.5) over Rams

The NFL finally gets it right with a Super Bowl preview of a season opener between the two most balanced teams in the league. MVP candidate Josh Allen has an embarrassment of riches surrounding him while the Bills defense is bolstered by the arrival of pass rusher (and former Ram) Von Miller. Meanwhile, the Rams partnered reigning Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp with Pro Bowler Allen Robinson while adding All-Pro linebacker Bobby Wagner to a defense that already includes future Hall of Famers Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey.

Even with the star power on the respective defenses, this has plenty of shootout potential with the game coming down to whoever has the ball last. Allen's ability to make plays with his arm and feet gives Buffalo the edge here. Bills by 6 in an early Game of the Year contender.

Ravens (-6.5) over Jets

The Jets will be better than they have been in the past decade but injuries are already cutting into the team’s potential. New York will attempt to protect 37-year-old Joe Flacco, filling in for hobbled MILF hunter Zach Wilson, behind a shaky offensive already down two tackles against an aggressive Baltimore pass rush. Making matters worse for Gang Green, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will be playing with an extra chip on his shoulder as he’s pursuing a new contract.

If the Jets can keep Flacco upright, they can make this a game but this a battle of promise vs proven and the Ravens should win this one going away.


Colts (-7) over Texans

The least talked-about of all potential Super Bowl contenders, the Colts kick off their 2022 campaign against a rebuilding Texans team still recovering from the Deshaun Watson debacle. This will be a good litmus test for Matt Ryan, Indy’s latest reclamation project at QB. Does he still have enough left in the tank or was his subpar final season in Atlanta a sign of things to come? Fortunately, Ryan can lean on MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor to get past a Houston team still finding its footing.

Eagles (-5) over Lions

HBO did a good job making the Lions look like lovable underdogs but the NFL did Detroit’s darlings no favors by opening them up against a reloaded Eagles team. Protected by one of the league’s best offensive lines and flanked by a solid supporting cast including star acquisition AJ Brown, Jalen Hurts shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball in the Motor City. Dan Campbell’s squad may lead the league in kneecap-biting, three-toe ass-kicking and grit this season but none of that saves them at home against Philly.


Niners (-6.5) over Bears

The Trey Lance era in San Francisco begins on the road against potentially the worst team in the NFL in the Chicago Bears. Bears QB Justin Fields will look to rebound from an uneven rookie season but he’ll spend most of the opening salvo running from former college teammate Nick Bosa and the Niners defense. Lance struggled with accuracy during the preseason and he’ll be without Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle. So, don’t be surprised if this is more a low-scoring affair with some big plays sprinkled throughout than a one-sided thrashing.

Bengals (-6.5) over Steelers

The dreaded Super Bowl hangover will come for the Bengals eventually but not on this day against a Steelers team quarterbacked by Mitch Trubisky. Cincy swept Pittsburgh last season and, at home riding momentum from a surprise Super Bowl run, I don’t expect that streak to end.

Panthers (-1) over Browns

Baker Mayfield has had this game circled on his calendar for months and why wouldn’t he? He’s at home in an arms race against Jacoby Brissett. Mayfield might not do enough this season to make the Browns regret trading him but debuting with a healthy Christian McCaffrey by his side will be enough for the former No. 1 overall pick to get his revenge.

Saints (-5.5) over Falcons

This is going to be a fun one. In one corner, you have Jameis Winston slinging it to Alvin Kamara, Jarvis Landry, a returning Michael Thomas and newcomer Chris Olave. In the other, you have young pups Kyle Pitts and Drake London looking to make a name for themselves. The Saints defense will keep this from getting out of hand but there’s plenty of breakout potential here.

Patriots (+3.5) over Dolphins

Miami spent the off-season doing whatever it could to get the most out of QB Tua Tagliavoa. Former Saints stud left tackle Terron Armstread was brought in to protect the blind side. Tyreek Hill was acquired from Kansas City as a deep threat and complement to last year’s rookie sensation Jaylen Waddle. Chase Edmonds and Rasheem Mostert were added to bolster the running game. However, it takes time for new pieces to gel and Patriots coach Bill Belichick can exploit any chemistry issues the Phins may have. New England doesn’t have enough firepower to go blow-for-blow but they can keep it close while Miami works out the kinks. Dolphins by 3.

Jaguars (+3) over Commanders

The Jaguars haven’t been good for awhile but opening as underdogs against a dysfunctional Commanders team is a little insulting. Last year’s No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence had a rough go of it in his rookie campaign but things are looking up. Former college teammate Travis Etienne is back. So is James Robinson. Christian Kirk came over from Arizona to be Lawrence’s top target. It’s possible the world is underrating Jacksonville and this is their coming out party.

Titans (-5) over Giants

The Giants are without their top two pass rushers AND still have Daniel Jones at QB, which is quite the double whammy for New York. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, who has electric rookie Malik Willis breathing down his neck, should have time to operate. Oh, and Derrick Henry is back. When you add all this together, it equals Big Blue going out sad.

Vikings (-1.5) over Packers

These aren’t your father’s Packers. Gone are the days of relying on Aaron Rodgers’ arm to carry them to victory. Instead, the team will rely on a two-headed running game and a revamped defense to stay relevant. Injuries will force Green Bay to lean even harder on that strategy. Allen Lazard, the replacement for the departed Davante Adams, is out with an ankle injury. Green Bay’s top two linemen, David Bahktiari and Elgton Jenkins, will also sit. Rodgers traditionally struggled against Minnesota and those troubles look like they’ll continue.

Raiders (+3.5) over Chargers

This is Bills-Rams Light to me. Justin Herbert and Derek Carr are both MVP candidates, the former more so than the latter. The Raiders made huge additions at both ends, pairing Maxx Crosby with Chandler Jones to improve the pass rush and reuniting Carr with former college teammate Davante Adams to give the passing game more punch. The Chargers have a dynamic duo on defense, as well. Former Raider and 2016 Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack was acquired from Chicago to give Joey Bosa a tag team partner on the edge. This could be a back-and-forth that comes down to the wire, which is why I’ll take Vegas and the points.

Chiefs (-6.5) over Cardinals

I’m not as high on the Chiefs as others are. Tyreek Hill was a huge loss for the passing game that can’t be filled with the trio of Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and rookie Skyy Moore. The running game is uncertain and the defense is subpar. With that said, Kansas City should still have enough to hold off the Cardinals, who are missing DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore on offense and don’t have enough talent on defense to slow down Patrick Mahomes.


Cowboys (+2.5) over Bucs

Things are starting to unravel for the Bucs in what could be Tom Brady’s final season. The offensive line lost center Ryan Jensen and G Aaron Stinnie to injury. WRs Chris Godwin and Russell Gage, who will both play against Dallas, are banged up while Julio Jones is an injury waiting to happen. Even Brady is dealing with personal matters that kept him out of camp for weeks after unretiring early in the spring. The Cowboys are missing bodies, as well, most notably left tackle Tyron Smith and WR Michael Gallup. Former Eagles great Jason Peters was signed to fill in for Smith and he has a tall order trying to fend off this vaunted Tampa Bay pass rush. Traditionally, the key to beating Brady is hitting him early and often. I like Micah Parsons' chances of disrupting Tom Terrific's flow and helping Dallas pull off the upset.

Broncos (-6) over Seahawks

There isn’t much stopping Russell Wilson from stomping the Seahawks in his return to Seattle, where he spent nine seasons and won a Super Bowl before being traded to Denver this past spring. The Broncos have an advantage in nearly every aspect and the revenge factor for Wilson should turn things ugly early.