Week 2 Picks

Week 1 was particularly dreadful but, as a glutton for punishment, I'm in this for the long haul.

Some of you buried me after Week 1. Bury me again. I don’t care. I’m back to work.

Last week: 4-12
Season: 4-12

Chiefs (-4) over Chargers

Patrick Mahomes really misses Tyreek Hill, huh? While other quarterbacks struggled without their dearly departed top targets, Mahomes carved up an overwhelmed Cardinals defense to the tune of 360 yards and five touchdowns. This time around, he gets Justin Herbert and the Chargers at home on a short week. Herbert (270 yards, 3 TDs in Week 1) is better equipped to go throw for throw with Mahomes than Kyler Murray was but the loss of Keenan Allen takes a trusted weapon out of the arsenal. LA’s best hope is their two dynamic pass rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, who combined for 4.5 sacks against Las Vegas, disrupting the Chiefs’ passing game. This could go down to the wire but Mahomes has the momentum and the homefield advantage. KC by a score.

Dolphins (+3.5) over Ravens

The Dolphins and Ravens were one of the few teams with decisive Week 1 wins. It helped that they were up against the Patriots and Jets, respectively. Lamar Jackson sputtered out the gate last week before finding his groove in the second half against a Jets defense that was on the field for too long. He’ll face a tougher test this time around against a Miami team that made Mac Jones’ life miserable last week. Meanwhile, after giving up 309 yards (most of it in garbage time) to old pal Joe Flacco, Baltimore’s D will be tasked with slowing down Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. This one will be close but Miami takes it. 

 

Giants (-2) over Panthers 

The skids were greased for Baker Mayfield to get his revenge against his old team and prove his detractors wrong last week. Instead, Mayfield completed less than 60 percent of his passes and took an L from a Jacoby Brissett-led Browns team. Giants QB Daniel Jones isn’t much better than Brissett but he and a rejuvenated Saquon Barkley should be enough to hold off Carolina at home. 

 

Bucs (-2.5) over Saints

Injuries to both offenses almost assures this will be a low-scoring affair. The Bucs could potentially be without two more starters on the offensive line, tackles Donovan Smith (doubtful) and Tristan Wirfs (questionable), while RB Leonard Fournette, WR Julio Jones and Mike Evans are all banged up. 45-year-old Tom Brady is also starting to show his age, as well. For New Orleans, RB Alvin Kamara will sit while QB Jameis Winston will play with a sore back. It’s possible the Saints defense takes advantage of Tampa Bay’s patchwork o-line to  pull off the upset but I think Brady has enough tricks up his sleeve to win by a FG. 

Jets (+6.5) over Browns 

The Jets defense looked feisty for a good portion of their clash against Baltimore before Lamar Jackson eventually took over. Jacoby Brissett is a long way from being Lamar Jackson and expecting the Browns to win by at least a touchdown seems a bit ambitious. At the very least, New York keeps this one close but it wouldn’t be a shock if they win outright. 

Colts (+3) over Jaguars

This feels like a trap. The Jags were a couple missed plays from stealing a win from the Commanders and now get a Colts team that had to fight just to tie with the Texans. Indy will also be without top wideout Michael Pittman, which makes things even more complicated. The Colts starting out winless by failing to beat two of the worst teams from last season in back-to-back weeks would be a nightmare, which is why I think they’ll desperately lean on RB Jonathan Taylor to cover. 

 

Steelers (+2.5) over Patriots

The Steelers will miss TJ Watt as he nurses a torn pec but they still survived Cincinnati last week without the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Assuming they don’t lose anyone else, the Steelers have enough talent to put away the suddenly lowly Patriots. 

Lions (-1.5) over Commanders 

Wait, is Carson Wentz good again? Time will tell. After notching 313 yards and four scores against the Jaguars, Wentz gets a slightly tougher challenge against a Lions team that refused to give up against Philly last week. Detroit looks like it’s buying into Dan Campbell’s penchant for grit and that non-stop effort gives them the edge over Washington.

Rams (-10) over Falcons

The Rams had 10 days to prepare for a Falcons team that — stop me if you heard this before — blew a fourth quarter lead last week. Double-digit spreads are a tough pull to swallow but Los Angeles is looking to get back on track after being embarrassed in the season opener and beating up on a rebuilding Falcons team is the way to do it. 

 

Seahawks (+9) over Niners

The jury is out as to whether Seattle is good or Denver was that bad but nearly double-digit underdogs to a Niners team that lost to the lowly Bears in a monsoon is criminal. Geno Smith will be hard-pressed to repeat starting out 14-for-14 like he did in the win over the Broncos but out-dueling a Trey Lance-led offense playing without Eli Mitchell and George Kittle is certainly in his purviews. 

 

Texans (+10) over Broncos

Another huge spread that doesn’t make spend. Denver is playing on a short week and coming off a road loss to the Seahawks. How are they 10-points better than a Texans squad that held off the Colts? It’s possible the Broncos learned from their mistakes and bounce back but I need to see more before I trust them as overwhelming favorites against anyone. 

 

Bengals (-7) over Cowboys

Five words for you: Cowboys starting quarterback Cooper Rush.

Bengals by a lot. 

Raiders (-5) over Cardinals

A toothless Cardinals defense that was decimated by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last week is the perfect remedy for a Raiders offense that hasn’t reached its full potential yet. Until Kyler Murray gets some of his weapons back, it’s hard to envision him keeping up with any of his colleagues, let alone Derek Carr and Las Vegas’ three-headed monster. 

Packers (-10) over Bears

It’s important not to panic after Green Bay’s disappointing showing last week against Minnesota. The Packers got blown out in their opener last year and still went on to finish tied for the league’s best regular season record. Aaron Rodgers’ history of owning the Bears is well-stated and, while trusting this banged up offense to win by double digits is risky, this is the kind of game the Packers need to regain their confidence. 

 

Bills (-10) over Titans 

A few things you should know:

• Josh Allen lit up the defending Super Bowl champions for 353 total yards and four touchdowns. 
• Allen and the Bills had 10 days to prepare for the Titans.
• The Titans lost to the Giants at home seven days ago. 
• Ryan Tannehill had two touchdown passes in the game, both to RB Dontrell Hilliard.
• Dontrell Hilliard is out this week with a hamstring injury. 

The Bills will not only cover, but I’m predicting a shutout here. 

Vikings (+2.5) over Eagles

Semi-related note: I love the idea of two Monday night games. It should be the norm every week and the league should just axe Thursday night. 

This was the hardest game to call. You know the Vikings will force-feed Justin Jefferson the ball after last week’s 9-184-2 performance and, while I’d like to think the Eagles will be better prepared for this than the Packers were, it’s important to remember the Lions moved the ball pretty well on this Philly defense last week. This has shootout potential but, right now, I trust Minnesota’s pass rush to be more disruptive than Philly’s