Everything we thought we knew about this season after Week 1 got hit with a Uno reverse after Week 2. Here’s some weird stats to think about going into Week 3:
1. Of the 32 teams in the NFL, only nine are still undefeated after two weeks. Minnesota and New Orleans are two of them while Baltimore and Cincinnati are still searching for their first win.2. The NFL’s five highest paid quarterbacks — Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa — have a combined nine touchdowns. That's the same amount as Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, who are on their fourth team after going 1-2 in the 2018 draft.
3. Brock Purdy leads the NFL in passing yards despite not having Christian McCaffrey and getting minimal production from Brandon Aiyuk
4. Bryce Young and Caleb Williams, the last two number one overall picks, have yet to throw for a touchdown. Malik Willis, acquired for a seventh-round pick a month ago by the Green Bay Packers and thrust into the starting lineup after Jordan Love went down with a MCL strain, has one.
Speaking of last week, league-wide upsets took its toll on our overall record. Here’s hoping we get better fortune and some clarity this week:
Last Week: 6-10
Season: 15-16-1
Patriots at Jets (-6.5)
The NFL continues to tinker with league rules in an effort to improve player safety but somehow found a way to schedule the Jets to play three times in 11 days despite their 40-year-old coming off an Achilles tear. Great work.
Aaron Rodgers showed flashes of his old self last week against Tennessee but still has yet to clear 176 yards passing this season. He now draws a surprisingly stout Patriots defense on four days rest. The Jets have too much talent to lose this game at home but, until the offense lives up to its potential, they might find it hard to pull away from New England enough to cover the touchdown spread. Jets win. Pats cover.
Pick: Patriots
Broncos at Bucs (-6)
A Buccaneers defense that is in the bottom half in rushing and passing yardage allowed gets the perfect cure for what ails them: a Broncos offense averaging 13 points per game that can’t move the ball much through the air or ground. Denver rookie QB Bo Nix might get his first passing touchdown against this porous Tampa Bay defense but there’s no way this anemic offense can keep up with a rejuvenated Baker Mayfield.
Pick: Bucs
Giants at Browns (-6.5)
There’s an old adage about good teams finding ways to win while bad teams find ways to lose. The jury is still out over which category the Browns are in but there’s no questioning whether the Giants are among the worst teams in football after somehow managing to lose to the Commanders last week without giving up a touchdown. Even only two games in, Big Blue doesn’t have much fight in them and whatever they left is about to be beaten out of them by a stout Browns defense.
Pick: Browns
Eagles at Saints (-3)
It’s early but the Saints look like they’re legit and Derek Carr is suddenly in the MVP conversation. New Orleans shut down any talk that their Week 1 dominance was a fluke by repeating that success on the road against the Cowboys. Now, they get an Eagles team that followed up nearly losing on the final drive to Jordan Love by actually losing on the final drive to Kirk Cousins. New Orleans is too good on both sides of the ball for this one to come down to any late-game dramatics.
Pick: Saints
Chargers at Steelers (-2.5)
This game is surprisingly more interesting than many would’ve thought two weeks ago and there’s a few matchups to keep an eye on:
The NFL’s leading rusher J.K. Dobbins against a Steelers defense that’s allowing just 76.5 yards per game on the ground and has yet to give up a rushing touchdown.
Steelers’ pass-rushing phenom T.J. Watt (two sacks, 11th-best in the league) against rising star rookie left tackle Joe Alt, who has allowed just one sack all season.
Two of the league’s best coaches, Mike Tomlin and Jim Harbaugh, leading the top two scoring defenses.
This is arguably the most evenly-matched of the Week 3 slate but Justin Herbert’s high-ankle sprain and the Steelers being at home lean this in Pittsburgh’s favor.
Pick: Steelers
Texans at Vikings (+1.5)
There’s a lot of upset potential here. Houston has escaped with close victories the past two weeks over the Colts and Bears but now goes on the road against a Minnesota team that’s better defensively than Indianapolis and better offensively than Chicago. Injuries haven’t stopped the Vikings yet and I don’t think the Joe Mixon-less Texans will either.
Pick: Vikings
Packers at Titans (-3)
Malik Willis Revenge Game? The Packers pulled off an upset victory over the Colts despite not having QB Jordan Love by relying almost exclusively on the run game. Green Bay ran the ball 53 times for 261 yards, only relying on Willis when they absolutely had to. That formula won’t work against a good Tennessee defense and the law of averages suggests Titans QB Will Levis won’t implode for a third straight week. This looks like a defensive struggle but the Titans are a safer bet to move the ball when it matters.
Pick: Titans
Bears at Colts (-1)
The Bears’ decision to use a top 10 pick on a third WR instead of helping the offensive line has come back to bite them in a big way. “Generational talent” Caleb Williams has been sacked nine times in two games and has yet to find the end zone. Until Chicago shows it can protect its franchise QB long enough for him to show the world what he’s made of, it’s hard to pick them over anyone, even a beat-up disappointing Colts team.
Pick: Colts
Panthers at Raiders (-6)
It’s over for Bryce Young in Carolina. After being benched two games into his second season, it’s hard to imagine the 2023 No. 1 overall pick regaining his confidence and living up to his potential with the Panthers. Carolina would be wise to trade Young while he still has a little value and try again for a new QB in April. In the meantime, Carolina will turn to 36-year-old Andy Dalton, who hasn’t been good in a long time. Dalton gives the offense a little more juice than Young but not enough to stop the inevitable 0-17 season headed their way.
Pick: Raiders
Dolphins at Seahawks (-4)
Speaking of quarterbacks at a career crossroads, it’s time for Tua Tagovailoa to hang it up. The Dolphins passer suffered his fourth concussion in less than two years last Thursday against the Bills and each time looks scarier than the one before it. At this point, only pride and stubbornness keeps the 26-year-old coming back and it’s time for the Dolphins to start considering other options. There’s enough talent in Miami that the Dolphins could be contenders with the right QB. Unfortunately, Skylar Thompson isn’t that guy and this week will be the start of that point being driven home.
Pick: Seahawks
Niners at Rams (+6.5)
The Rams have never been big on draft picks but it might be time to start shopping QB Matthew Stafford. With star receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both out for a considerable amount of time, the winless Rams have no shot at competing this season and there’s enough desperation out there that another team might give up something for a capable QB. It would also be a nice gesture to let the 36-year-old finish out his career on a team that’s actually playing for something.
The Niners are no stranger to the injury bug either, having already lost Pro Bowlers Christian McCaffery, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle as well as top corner Chavarius Ward, but there’s enough talent there to get by a depleted Rams squad.
Pick: Niners
Lions at Cardinals (+3)
Are the Lions overrated? It’s too early to rush to judgement but, after squeaking by the Rams and losing to the Bucs, it’s reasonable to wonder if we may have gotten ahead of ourselves in Motown. Detroit’s offense is formidable but the defense, despite the offseason overhaul, still gives up too many chunk plays. That’s bad news on the road up against Kyler Murray and rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., who appeared to have found their rhythm last week.
Pick: Cardinals
Ravens at Cowboys (+1)
The Cowboys had us fooled after Week 1. When Dallas mopped the floor with Cleveland in the season opener, skeptics such as myself feasted on crow before spitting in out in laughter after watching New Orleans run roughshod on the Cowboys in Jerry’s Place. Need proof that Dallas’ glass slipper has shattered? The Cowboys are home underdogs against a winless Ravens team coming off a loss to the Raiders. Baltimore is desperate for a win, and if Dallas had a hard time stopping Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara, it’s going to have its hands full with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.
Pick: Ravens
Chiefs at Falcons (+3)
With their last two victories coming down to critical errors by their opponents down the stretch (Isaiah Likely’s toe on the line, 4th down PI call on the Bengals late in the 4th), the Chiefs may be more lucky than good but they are still a team you don’t want to let hang around late in games. The same could be said for the Falcons, who snatched victory from the Eagles after Philly left the door open for them. Kirk Cousins showed signs of his old form last week but it’s still too early to think he can win a shootout with Patrick Mahomes.
Pick: Chiefs
Jaguars at Bills (-5)
On paper, Trevor Lawrence vs Josh Allen should be a hell of a matchup except that Allen is still adjusting to life without Stefon Diggs and Lawrence has thrown for less yards than Bo Nix. Doug Pederson might be the worst coach in the league with a Super Bowl ring and it’s hard to see him having a job for much longer if this schneid continues.
Which it will.
Pick: Bills
Commanders at Bengals (-7)
The Bengals are 0-2 coming off a controversial loss to the Chiefs facing a bad Commanders defense and a rookie QB who is allergic to throwing the ball deep. If Washington decides to let Jayden Daniels do something other than check downs and running for his life, this could be competitive but all signs point to Cincy rolling in what looks like an ugly MNF double header.
Pick: Bengals
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