Five Fearless Predictions

If you watched me collapse down the stretch like Gabe's Mets during our 2009 NFL weekly pick-off, then you know to take my prognostications with a grain of salt(although, when compared to Stephen A. Smith's lofty predictions, I don't look nearly as bad). Nevertheless, I'm back again with five bold statements you should take to the bank the rest of this year. Here they are:



1. Some network will overpay Erin Andrews and the inevitable "Erin Andrews Show" will tank: All of this talk about free agency has allowed us to overlook the soon-to-expiring contract of another hot sports entity: ESPN's sideline princess, Erin Andrews. Andrews is coming off a Javy Lopez-like contract year. She blew up the Internet with an "accidentally" leaked peep hole video of her butt naked in her hotel room. Then, she bounced back from that fiasco to make an Xavier-like run in Dancing With The Stars. Now, she will go back to the negotiating table when her contract expires in July(from what I'm told, it's July 1) with her popularity at its peak and her star on the rise. So what happens now with Erin Andrews? You can't expect her to want to go back to doing what she was doing before now that she's twice as popular and well-known as she was a year ago. That's why she'll ask for her own show, and somebody(be it ABC, FoxSports, ESPN, Versus, etc.) will give it to her. She's become a household name. Hell, Bonnie Hunt managed to lock down a show and she's a nobody. You don't think somebody will greenlight "The Erin Andrews Show" given her status as a 17-35 male magnet? If people are tuning in for Michelle Beadle's homely mug on SportsNation, you don't think they'd do the same for Andrews? Of course they would!

Here's the thing: We don't know if Erin Andrews is an actual bonafide sports chick who can break bread with star athletes or just some teleprompter champion who couldn't tell an out route from an outhouse. Her claims to fame thus far have been getting naked on camera, doing the cha-cha for charity and lobbing softball questions on the sidelines. Inevitably, you need something besides being hot as a reason for people to watch your show. Guys can find hot chicks anywhere. If you want them to pay attention to you, you need to have some substance. You also need your production staff and your network to not portray you as some pin-up model and instead, as someone whose views should be respected. I'm not sure if Andrews can get that kind of respect from both the suits and a fickle fan base who will be tuning in for something other than Andrews' thoughts on the Jets' offseason acquisitions.

2. Dirk Nowitzki will leave Dallas as a free agent this season: When you look at Dirk Nowitzki's situation, it isn't that much different from LeBron James'. He's a free agent who wants to play for a winner while he has the opportunity to pick his location. Like James, Nowitzki's previous employer will try to bring back Dirk by trying to sell the Mavs as a contender, even if everything in the past suggests otherwise. Look, I know the odds are against me on this one, but hear me out. Nobody thought Steve Nash would ever leave Dallas to go back to Phoenix, but it eventually happened. Nowitzki wants a no-trade clause and a salary close to the money he was making before(he was scheduled to make $21 million had he not opted out of his final year). If Mark Cuban low-balls Dirk like he did Nash, who is to say Dirk won't get offended and go elsewhere?

After all, Dirk has options. He could reunite with Nash in Phoenix. The Suns are about to lose Amare Stoudemire so they can use the money that would have went to Amare and pay Dirk and make one last run before Nash retires. Remember, the Suns made an improbable run to the Western Conference Finals this past season and that's with guys like Jared Dudley and Robin Lopez. You team Dirk with Nash again, and keep that supporting cast of J-Rich, Lopez, Hill and Barbosa, and the Suns are in a better position than Dallas would be. Dallas has Jason Kidd's rotting corpse, an aging Jason Terry, the solid-but-unproven Caron Butler, and Erick Dampier's contract. They've lost in the first round three of the last four years. For whatever reason, they just can't get in done in May and June. Can Cuban really say that the Mavs can make a title run if Dirk comes back and the team trades half of its core for LeBron? Another interesting option? New Jersey. They have Dirk's old coach Avery Johnson, who led Dirk's Mavs to the Finals in 2006. They have a need at small forward and are probably on the outside looking in in the LeBron Sweepstakes. Could a Brook Lopez-Derrick Favors-Dirk-mid-level-free agent(let's say Ray Allen)-Devin Harris starting five compete in the weak East? I think so.

Again, I'd say there's a 40% chance of Dirk leaving, but it's not as impossible as the suits in Dallas' front office would lead you to believe. LeBron's leaving Cleveland. Paul Pierce may be leaving Boston. There are places Dirk can go and contend that are better than Dallas. Loyalty is great, but it also has a price.

3. The Philadelphia Eagles won't win more than 6 games this season: Karma tends to strike teams that bid adieu to their franchise QB a bit too soon. The Broncos never really recovered when John Elway left. Same goes for Miami with Dan Marino(though, in fairness, they both retired. They weren't traded). The Packers went 6-10 after trading Brett Favre. The Niners missed the playoffs in their first year without Joe Montana. The same will hold true for Philadelphia after foolishly trading QB Donovan McNabb to division rival Washington. McNabb may not be a Hall of Famer like the previously mentioned signal-callers but he's still a guy who carried his team to five NFC Championship appearances and a Super Bowl berth. Kevin Kolb, McNabb's successor, is adequate but he's going to need time to develop chemistry with his young receivers like DeSean Jackson.

On top of that, the team cut longtime rusher Brian Westbrook. The moves may have made Philly younger but it also cut into the team's leadership. Add the death of Jim Johnson last year causing the defense to take a step back and the embarrassing way they finished last season(with back-to-back losses to the Cowboys that both cost them the division title AND eliminated them from the playoffs). The defense also has its share of disgruntled employees. Ellis Hobbs wants a new deal. Asante Samuel was on the trading block for a while. The secondary also takes a hit with Marlin Jackson out for the season and rookie Nate Allen replacing him at free safety.

The division also got better around the Eagles. The Giants added to their defense and, if you know anything about New York teams, they will use the Chad Jones tragedy as a motivation this season(Another prediction inside of a prediction: Giants' 1st round pick, DE Jason Pierre-Paul: 8 sacks, 4 forced fumbles.....take that to the bank). The Redskins not only added McNabb(who obviously will be looking for revenge against Philly) but also hired Mike Shanahan as head coach, brought in Trent Williams and Jammal Brown to shore up the O-Line as well as a couple once-great RBs in Larry Johnson and Willie Parker to help the running game. Dallas? Well, they'll take a step back with Flozell Adams no longer protecting Tony Romo's blind side but they added rookie WR Dez Bryant and that defense is still playoff-caliber. So, the road ahead for Philly is going to be tougher and having to break in a new QB just makes it that much more difficult. I'm not saying Kolb will be a total bust, but expecting him to pick up where McNabb left off is a bit far-fetched.

4. By September, most of America will forget about the World Cup: I mentioned this last year in my Michael Jackson tribute and I'll say it again: Americans are fad-jumpers. We like to be patriotic when it suits us. Most of us only really cared about soccer because Team USA was still in it. Now that they aren't? It's back to business as usual. You know why football is America's new pasttime? Because it's a sport dominated by American-born players. Baseball used to be like that, but as international players started to catch up, Americans lost interest. The same for basketball. We all loved watching Team USA in the Olympics, until we started getting our ass kicked. Then, The Redeem Team won the gold and, all of a sudden, it was all about rooting for America. Why do you think hockey isn't popular anymore? There aren't that many American stars(which is funny, because hockey for the last three decades was ruled by Mario Lemieux and Wayne Gretzky....both Canadians). American sports fans are the biggest bandwagoners in the world. They are as fickle as a child's mind. Most of the people who clogged up Twitter and Facebook with GO USA chants couldn't name you five soccer players playing in the World Cup.

We like to get ourselves all riled up for the Olympics, not because we are patriotic souls, but because we enjoy having bragging rights. We like to be arrogant and rub victory in the faces of the less fortunate. Anyone with a legitimate amount of followers on Twitter will notice the dearth of World Cup tweets since Ghana sent USA packing a few days ago. Now, I don't mind soccer, but it's certainly way down on my list of sports. I rooted for Italy this year, but I'll admit I couldn't give you one person on the team(and that's with Gabe spending the spring doing World Cup previews on this very website), but at least I'll admit it. I'm not some fairweather fan like most of America decided to be when USA made the Round of 16. Regardless, USA's run is over and the World Cup will get a little buzz these next couple months because only NBA free agency and baseball stand in its way of making headlines. However, the closer we get to NFL training camp, the further World Cup soccer will appear in the rear view mirror of most Americans. The flags will go back in the closet and we'll go back to not caring about soccer. It's just the American way.

5. By this time next year, Americans will also forget about Drake: I always get asked about my hatred of Drake. Look, I've listened to hip-hop for nearly 20 years. I know the difference between a real MC and a guy who is the product of hype of well-placed marketing. Drake is the latter. He got on a record with three other notable rappers(one of which, Lil Wayne, who I might dislike more than I dislike Drake) and got outshined by at least two of them(Kanye and Eminem...as if I had clarify). Drake sings AND he raps. You can't do both and expect to be credible to hardcore hip-hop fans. It didn't work for Ja Rule. It didn't work for Missy Elliot. Even 50 Cent saw his numbers drop when he started to harmonize. Now, I know, Drake sold nearly half a million copies in his first week, which is impressive in a economy where funds are low and CD sales are dwindling, but record sales never translate to talent. MC Hammer sold alot of records. So did Vanilla Ice. Would you call them some of hip-hop's greatest lyricists? In the end, talent wins out. Talib Kweli doesn't sell many records, but he's still around. The same for Gabe's boys, The Roots. Same goes for guys like Method Man and Redman. When you have skills, people will find you.

Eventually, the fickle fan base that buys Drake's records(read: suburban white kids) will get tired of his Al B. Sure sing-a-long gimmick and move on to someone else. Don't believe me? When's the last time you heard a Jibbs record? How about Young Joc? Remember how hot Nelly was at one time? Now, he couldn't sell his album at Cardinals games. Hip-hop, as myself and Gabe came to know it and love it as we grew up, has died tragically. It went from a creative art form to a gimmick that corporations unfamiliar with the culture now use to line their pockets. Every now and then, you get a hot album like Jay-Z's Blueprint 3 or Eminem's Recovery, but for the most part, hip-hop now consists of ringtone rappers. As the state of hip-hop moves more and more toward guys with weak flows and nursery rhymes, hot rappers of the moment become more and more replaceable. That will become evident when Drake is the delivery boy for Topper's Pizza a year from now.

There's a Place in France....

...where players yell at coaches and the president has to tell soccer players to practice.

One of the biggest stories coming out of this year's World Cup final is the implosion of the French side. The team is loaded with talent, was in the championship game in 2006, and had every reason to believe they would do well in this tourney too. But...they didn't.

We here at Boom Roasted Sports like to think we are of the people. We like to help. So here is a helpful timeline of the French team, from qualifying to their return home with their tails between their legs.

Let the fun start....

November 2009 - France beats Ireland in qualifying on the strength of Thierry Henry's handball (pictured above) and the win gets Les Bleus a spot in the World Cup final. Cheaters.

April 2010 - An underage prostitute admits to servicing Franck Ribery and two other players on the French national team. There's a "grass on the field" joke in there somewhere, but I'm not as good as Dave at coming up with such things.

April 20th - A really smart guy at Boom Roasted Sports said the French are "crazy talented but fragile psychologically," and predicted they would get beaten in the group by Mexico. (Excuse me while I pat myself on the back.)

June 4th - France loses to China in their final warm-up match before the Cup. There are reports even then of dissent and players not supporting the coach's tactics.

June 10th - On the eve of their opening match against Uruguay it is announced that Thierry "Fingers" Henry will start. It is reported that he had argued with manager Raymond Domenech until he was inserted into the line-up. Florent Malouda also argued with his coach, reportedly.

June 11th - France ties Uruguay in their first match. Malouda gets dropped after the game and refuses to support Domenech while sulking, which in France means drinking champagne, making snide comments, and smoking while holding cigarettes underhand.

June 17th - With many Irish fans in the stands pulling for Mexico, France gets smoked by El Tri, 2-0. At halftime of this game Domenech and Nicolas Anelka get into it. Anelka allegedly calls Domenech a "son of a whore," which is just as bad as calling someone anywhere else in the world a "son of a French whore."

June 19th - Anelka is sent home after the fight gets reported in the media.

June 20th - All hell breaks loose. The French team refuses to practice. The team director resigns. Domenech tattles and the president of the country is called in to make the team train.

June 22nd - Les Bleus get handled by the hosts, South Africa, and get bounced from the tournament. They go back home to France, presumably to drink champagne, make snide comments, and smoke cigarettes underhand.

There you go BRS fans, a handy dandy guide to French implosion. 'Til next time, reporting from South Africa (I wish) for Boom Roasted Sports, Gabe "Insert Cool Nickname Here" Rodriguez.

World Cup Group B

I caught some heat from a dirty European over my Group A preview, but hey, I'm here to call it like I see it, not pander.

Let's get it on with Group B.

Group B

Argentina

Greece

Nigeria

South Korea

Who Will Win

Argentina

Who Could Win

Nigeria

Who Has No Chance

Greece

How They'll Finish

4. Greece - This will be Greece's second trip the the World Cup Final ever. The Greeks play a grinding defensive style of soccer. That style helped them win the 2004 Euro Championship in surprise fashion. The problem is that Group B is full of teams with speed that can carve up the Greek defense. The Greeks do have one thing going for them...their nickname is "To Piratiko", which translates to "The Pirate Ship," easily a top-3 nickname in the tournament.

3. South Korea - The South Koreans were successful in 2002, when they co-hosted the tourney with Japan. Four years ago in Germany they were bounced in the first round. They reached this year's final without losing in qualifying, but they had the benefit of playing a bad North Korea team four times. The Taiguk Warriors have qualified for the World Cup Final seven straight times, making them one of the best in Asia, but are still looking for respect on the international level. Unfortunately for them, this year, their group is one of the best at the top. Getting through the knockout stage is a long shot.

2. Nigeria - The Super Eagles didn't lose a game in qualifying, but did draw with lowly Tunisia twice. They have dynamic mid-fielders in Premier League players John Obi Mikel and Dickson Etuhu. They also have one of the best African players of this generation, Nwankwo Kanu, coming off the bench. The problem is their defense. They are prone lapses in concentration. That will hurt them against Argentina, but they should still have enough to get past the other two countries.The Nigerians should get out of the group, but advancing beyond that will be tough.

1. Argentina - This team is well balanced and dangerous. They have a great mix of young and old, including 35 year-old Juan Sebastian Veron and 23 year-old Lionel Messi, arguably the best player in the world right now. Their offense is fast, dynamic, and hard to stop. They have problems with defense sometimes, they gave up six goals on the road to Bolivia in qualifying. They are lead by head coach Diego Maradona, who is a piece of World Cup history (1986, Hand of God, look it up.) He can be impulsive, but this team has enough veteran leadership that they know how to win. Argentina has the goods to get far in this tournament, but they will be tested in the round of 16, where they will have to play either France or Mexico, provided things pan out the way I predicted.

Coming soon....Group C!

World Cup Group A

In an effort to take this little blog global I have decided to cover the 2010 FIFA World Cup, you know, the most watched sporting event on the planet.

I could launch into some diatribe about why Americans don't like soccer and the World Cup, but I won't. I'll give two basic reasons. First, Americans like their sports episodic. Soccer is subtle, smooth, and flowing. Second, Americans like champions and the best the Yanks have done in the World Cup is finishing 3rd...in 1930...when dinosaurs roamed the earth.

So let's get right to it and start at the top with Group A.

Group A
France
Mexico
Uruguay
South Africa

Bold Prediction
Mexico will win this group.

Team Without a Chance
South Africa

How They'll Finish (in order from last to first, with the top two moving on):

4. South Africa
South Africa is currently 88th is the FIFA world rankings. They are by far the worst ranked team in the tournament. But, they are the host country, so here they are. So do the Bafana Bafana (the team's nickname) have any shot at all? Well, they do have some things for them. First, they are the host country and the importance of that cannot be overlooked. The World Cup Final is an event built on trends. Teams tend to do better because of things like playing in their home country, or in stadiums they've played in before, or being one of the only seven teams to have previously won a World Cup (of which South Africa is not by the way.) They do have some talent, but only one player, Steven Pienaar of Everton of the EPL, who sees significant playing time in a major professional league. I think if the South Africans make it out of the group they will be incredibly lucky.

3. Uruguay
Los Charruas have a very young team in a tournament that is tending toward youth. They have two mid-fielders and a forward who are 23 years old or younger. They have also played better on the road during qualifying than they have at home and lucky for them, the Cup Final is halfway across the planet. So what is working against them? First, expectations. Uruguay won the first World Cup in 1930 and won again in 1950 and their fans still expect them to play well and advance every final. That is a lot of pressure for this team. Second, they limped into the tourney. They finished fifth in their region and had to win a two game playoff against Costa Rica to advance. If Los Charruas make it out of the group they, and their fans, should feel like they were successful.

2. France
The French have all the talent in the world and truly are among the best teams in the world. But this team has had some epic incidents of late and are prone to folding under the pressure. They are the ultimate Jekyll and Hyde team. After winning it all in 1998 they failed to earn a point in 2002. In 2006 Zinedine Zidane had his epic meltdown which essentially cost France the title. This year, in their qualifier against Ireland, Thierry Henry committed his now infamous handball which cost the Irish a spot in the final. This bad karma has followed them and they will be playing to packed stadiums wanting them to fail. To put it simply, the French are crazy talented athletically, and should win the group, but they are really fragile psychologically and that fragility will cost them.

1. Mexico
The Mexicans have all of the momentum and swagger coming into this group, and that is all thanks to new coach Javier Aguirre. Aguirre took over the team halfway through qualifying when Mexico was fourth in the CONCOCAF standings. After that they went 5-1-1, including a 3-0 win over Costa Rica, in a stadium in which the Costa Ricans had only lost once since 2000. The Mexicans are flying high and feeling good. They open the tournament against South Africa, a match they should win easily, and that will only add their confidence. Their match against France on June 17th will decide the finishing order of the group.