World Cup Group A

In an effort to take this little blog global I have decided to cover the 2010 FIFA World Cup, you know, the most watched sporting event on the planet.

I could launch into some diatribe about why Americans don't like soccer and the World Cup, but I won't. I'll give two basic reasons. First, Americans like their sports episodic. Soccer is subtle, smooth, and flowing. Second, Americans like champions and the best the Yanks have done in the World Cup is finishing 3rd...in 1930...when dinosaurs roamed the earth.

So let's get right to it and start at the top with Group A.

Group A
France
Mexico
Uruguay
South Africa

Bold Prediction
Mexico will win this group.

Team Without a Chance
South Africa

How They'll Finish (in order from last to first, with the top two moving on):

4. South Africa
South Africa is currently 88th is the FIFA world rankings. They are by far the worst ranked team in the tournament. But, they are the host country, so here they are. So do the Bafana Bafana (the team's nickname) have any shot at all? Well, they do have some things for them. First, they are the host country and the importance of that cannot be overlooked. The World Cup Final is an event built on trends. Teams tend to do better because of things like playing in their home country, or in stadiums they've played in before, or being one of the only seven teams to have previously won a World Cup (of which South Africa is not by the way.) They do have some talent, but only one player, Steven Pienaar of Everton of the EPL, who sees significant playing time in a major professional league. I think if the South Africans make it out of the group they will be incredibly lucky.

3. Uruguay
Los Charruas have a very young team in a tournament that is tending toward youth. They have two mid-fielders and a forward who are 23 years old or younger. They have also played better on the road during qualifying than they have at home and lucky for them, the Cup Final is halfway across the planet. So what is working against them? First, expectations. Uruguay won the first World Cup in 1930 and won again in 1950 and their fans still expect them to play well and advance every final. That is a lot of pressure for this team. Second, they limped into the tourney. They finished fifth in their region and had to win a two game playoff against Costa Rica to advance. If Los Charruas make it out of the group they, and their fans, should feel like they were successful.

2. France
The French have all the talent in the world and truly are among the best teams in the world. But this team has had some epic incidents of late and are prone to folding under the pressure. They are the ultimate Jekyll and Hyde team. After winning it all in 1998 they failed to earn a point in 2002. In 2006 Zinedine Zidane had his epic meltdown which essentially cost France the title. This year, in their qualifier against Ireland, Thierry Henry committed his now infamous handball which cost the Irish a spot in the final. This bad karma has followed them and they will be playing to packed stadiums wanting them to fail. To put it simply, the French are crazy talented athletically, and should win the group, but they are really fragile psychologically and that fragility will cost them.

1. Mexico
The Mexicans have all of the momentum and swagger coming into this group, and that is all thanks to new coach Javier Aguirre. Aguirre took over the team halfway through qualifying when Mexico was fourth in the CONCOCAF standings. After that they went 5-1-1, including a 3-0 win over Costa Rica, in a stadium in which the Costa Ricans had only lost once since 2000. The Mexicans are flying high and feeling good. They open the tournament against South Africa, a match they should win easily, and that will only add their confidence. Their match against France on June 17th will decide the finishing order of the group.