Aaron Out Grievances

Hours before the start of the NFL Draft, Aaron Rodgers unveiled the worst-kept secret in professional football: He no longer wanted to be a Green Bay Packer.

The news took the sports world by storm but it shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to Rodgers’ tenure in Titletown or watched how players of the reigning MVP’s caliber have ended the tail end of their careers.

Rodgers’ own road to glory in Green Bay began only after the Packers sent his legendary predecessor Brett Favre to New York kicking and screaming after his latest retirement charade. Just four months ago, Rodgers watched Tom Brady win his seventh Super Bowl in his first year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after two decades of dominance with the New England Patriots. Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Adrian Peterson, Jerry Rice, Joe Montana, Emmitt Smith, Joe Namath.....all football icons who were forced to write their final chapters elsewhere after the teams they helped build decided to cut the cord.

The 37-year-old hasn’t publicly demanded a trade nor has he offered much on his desire to leave the only team he’s ever known. Instead, most, if not all, of the story has been told through third-party reports and internet gossip ranging from Rodgers being upset over the release of wideout Jake Kumerow to him wanting general manager Brian Gutekunst fired. The Packers have sent everyone within the team’s power structure Rodgers’ way to change his mind while expressing their desire to hang on to their franchise QB when speaking to the media.

However, Rodgers’ inevitable departure from Green Bay seemed avoidable.

For 13 seasons as a starter, Rodgers made the Packers a legitimate title contender, won three MVPs and led the team to its first Super Bowl win since 1997 as a sixth seed. During that span, the franchise attempted to protect its franchise quarterback behind subpar offensive lines, forced him to compensate for leaky defensive units and repeatedly ignored his requests to put talent around him either by being too cheap or choosing to build other areas.

Case in point: On the night Rodgers made his unhappiness public, the Packers doubled down on its second straight offseason of inactivity by neglecting to get their quarterback a new target until late in the third round by selecting slot receiver Amari Rodgers out of Clemson.

In fact, since Rodgers was drafted in 2005, the Packers have used a first-round pick on an offensive skill position player just once.

That player? Rodgers’ heir apparent Jordan Love last year.

That’s not to say Rodgers has been a one-man show. Green Bay has shown a knack for finding key players in later rounds such as Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. However, for every Jones or Adams, there’s the Packers passing on AJ Brown and DK Metcalf in 2019 to take safety Darnell Savage or trading up last year to take Love instead moving up a little higher for Justin Jefferson.

Making matters worse, Rodgers watched Brady’s Buccaneers work magic on a significantly lower salary cap and return all 22 starters from a championship team while A-Rod’s Packers let the league’s best center Corey Linsley walk to Los Angeles.

So, what happens now?

A trade happening anytime soon seems unlikely. The Packers are adamant they are committed to Rodgers even if Rodgers isn’t committed to them and already turned down an offer from the San Francisco 49ers that centered around the No. 3 overall pick.

The Niners, along with the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders, were reportedly on Rodgers’ preferred list of destinations. However, the Broncos claim to be content with the duo of Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater while the Raiders are invested in Derek Carr. The draft also eliminated a number of potential landing spots outside of A-Rod’s wish list as five QBs went in the first round.

Another blow to Rodgers’ leverage is his contract. He’s signed to the Packers through 2023 with no guaranteed money left on his deal and he doesn’t have a no-trade clause. In other words, there’s nothing forcing Green Bay to send Rodgers where he wants to go even if they decide to move him.

His latest bargaining chip has been threatening retirement. Rodgers was a guest host on Jeopardy! during the offseason and has been very open about wanting the gig full time. That’s unlikely to budge the franchise as it would eventually save the cap-strapped Pack some money and they already have his replacement on the roster.

Even if Rodgers and the Packers can come to a compromise and table their separation until next year, the three-time MVP will be potentially competing on the trade market with Deshaun Watson (assuming his legal troubles are behind him by then) and Russell Wilson. Both are younger than Rodgers and both expressed a desire to be traded earlier this offseason. There’s also the reality that, no matter where Rodgers lands, he’s going to have to accept a mentor role at some point. No team is going to acquire an oft-injured QB in his late-30’s without some kind of contingency plan in place.

This story is going to continue to get ugly and neither side is without fault. Rodgers earned a reputation for being defiant from the way things ended with previous head coach Mike McCarthy and Rodgers’ Willie Beaman-like tendency to call his own plays. That stigma is unlikely to change as he holds the team hostage until it meets his demands.

While his frustration is understandable, he has to realize he has it better than most. He’s not running for his life behind a patchwork offensive line like Wilson has in Seattle the past eight seasons. He’s not watching his supporting cast get traded away for 30 cents on the dollar like Watson did with DeAndre Hopkins last year. He has arguably the league’s best receiver in Adams and another budding star in Aaron Jones, who just re-signed for four more years off the strength of what the team has done the past few seasons. There’s also little incentive to pump more capital into skill players when Rodgers managed to win MVP and lead the team back to the NFC championship for the second straight season with the crew he has.

As for the Packers, when the best player your franchise has ever had is asking for help, you listen. The NFL Draft has been deep at receiver the past three years and the team has opted to look in other directions. That would be admirable if those choices turned out to be stars but only five first-round picks have made the Pro Bowl since 2006 (AJ Hawk, BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Jaire Alexander, with only Alexander still with the team). If Rodgers never plays another down for Green Bay, the decision to not take the Niners’ offer is going to come back to haunt them more than playing against him would have.

There’s also the residual effect to this standoff. Adams made news earlier this week when he posted a cryptic tweet about appreciating “what you got while ya got it” (which was “liked” by Rodgers’ account). It could be about the turmoil in Titletown. It could be about the McRib. We’ll never know for sure.

But if the Rodgers mess sets off some kind of mutiny in Green Bay, the team will be staring down its worst loss of the year five months before the 2021 season even opens up.

NFC North Preview

1. Green Bay Packers

What I like: As scary as this may seem, the Packers' vaunted offense may be more dangerous this year than they were last postseason when they were carving defenses left and right. For one, much to the surprise of even me, WR James Jones turned his nose up at offers to be better featured elsewhere so that he could stay in Green Bay. Jones returns to an offense that already had one of the best young wideouts in Greg Jennings, a cagey veteran in Donald Driver and last year's Super Bowl hero Jordy Nelson at wide receiver. The team also used a 2nd round pick on Kentucky WR Randall Cobb, in the event Jones decided to leave. Speaking of returns, the offense gets RB Ryan Grant back after missing all of last season with knee and ankle injuries. It remains to be seen how strong a comeback Grant will make but James Starks, who came on in the playoffs last year, and rookie Alex Green are around to pick up the slack. The Packers also get TE Jermichael Finley back after missing most of last season with a knee injury. Finley looked primed for a break out before being carted off against the Redskins in October. That gives QB Aaron Rodgers, who has carved his niche as one of the two or three best passers in the game, an offense that can stretch as much as five deep. Defensively, Clay Matthews Jr. is back, fresh off winning a championship and getting jobbed for the Defensive Player of the Year award. Matthews will provide the pass rush and will get a little help from a secondary that features a former DPOY in Charles Woodson, two good young corners in Tramon Williams and Sam Shields, and a Pro Bowler at free safety in Nick Collins. Also, B.J. Raji and Ryan Pickett fortify the defensive line for Dom Capers' 3-4 scheme.

What I don't like: For all the defending champs gained back from the IR, they did have a couple key losses. DE Cullen Jenkins was one of the best pass rushing 3-4 ends in the league and he's now in Philly. The team also bid adieu to MLB Nick Barnett, who was oft-injured but still one of the team's better playmakers. There's also concerns with the offensive line, even despite the addition of first round pick Derek Sherod. Left tackle Chad Clifton is getting up in years and, with the lockout, Sherod is a step behind in development and would be risky to be trusted to protected Rodgers' blind side if injuries continue to take their toll on Clifton. The team also has to prove it can win close games under Mike McCarthy. While the Super Bowl run alleviates some pressure from McCarthy and company, it must be remembered that the Packers backed into the playoffs to start their surprise run. Now, the target's on their back and teams that may have taken the Pack lightly last year won't make the same mistake twice.

Bottom line: The Packers have been heralded as the favorites to become the first repeat champions since the '04 Patriots. While it's not impossible, it's asking a lot for a team in a conference that got significantly better in the offseason. Unlike past champions, however, Green Bay doesn't have to worry about being cursed by the injury bug after winning a title with 15 players on the IR last season. Rodgers controls the deepest offense in football and Matthews' relentless pass rush combined with a talented secondary will keep opposing offenses at bay. Still, the team didn't do much to bring in another pass rusher to complement Matthews and while the flaws are small, they do exist in the Packers' armor. Green Bay has enough talent to repeat, but it's up to McCarthy to keep his team from getting too wrapped up in their own press clippings if they are going to make it to Indy in February.

2. Detroit Lions

What I like: For starters, the Matt Stafford-Jahvid Best-Calvin Johnson trio is tantalizing, to say the least. The same can be said about the interior tandem of Ndomukong Suh and Nick Fairley(when Fairley is healthy) on the other side of the ball. Stafford has the game's biggest arm and he has the luxury of a genetic freak in Johnson, who is too quick for the bigs and two big for the quicks. Best gives Detroit its best rushing threat in a long time and his ability as a runner and pass-catcher makes this offense much more dangerous. On defense, offensive lines are going to have nightmares trying to hold off Suh and Fairley. Suh commanded triple teams on his own as a rookie last year and Fairley, who has been slowed by a foot injury, comes to Detroit with a similar collegiate reputation as Suh did when he left Nebraska a year ago. In Fairley's absence, Corey Williams is no slouch as a pass rusher either and neither is DEs Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch. The Lions also signed tackling machine Stephen Tulloch away from Tennessee to reunite him with head coach Jim Schwartz, who was Tulloch's defensive coordinator with the Titans. The secondary also has a couple young studs in former Falcon Chris Houston and hard-hitting safety Louis Delmas.

What I don't like: The hype. You can't call a team a "sleeper" team is everyone knows about them. Any chance of Detroit sneaking up on opponents has been killed by all the preseason talk of this being the Year of the Lions. Some experts even have gone as far as to predict Detroit to make the Super Bowl this year. For that to happen, the Lions have to become very fortunate with injuries. Stafford, for all his talent, has missed significant parts of his first two seasons. Best was slowed by turf toe and concussion issues last year and Johnson had his own injury problems. The team is already without Fairley to start the season. The offensive line, long the team's biggest weakness, has to prove it can keep Stafford upright and healthy. Also, with second-round pick Mikel Leshoure done for the year, it's up to Jerome Harrison to take some of the load off the undersized Best. The team also needs someone to emerge from the Nate Burleson/Titus Young duo to keep defenses from tripling Johnson. On defense, the team needs Fairley back soon and ready to team with Suh and wreak havoc.

Bottom line: There's positive buzz in the Motor City for the first time since the Barry Sanders era, but the team has already been bitten by misfortune with the injuries to their two top picks in Fairley and Leshoure. For the Lions to live up to expectations, everything has to go right for them. If Stafford, Best, Johnson, Fairley and Suh can stay healthy down the stretch, the Lions are going to be a tough out in the 2nd half. However, with so many teams fighting for so few playoff spots, the young Lions are going to have to grow up fast to make wise men out of all the "experts" fueling up the bandwagon. The Lions have to compete with a defending division champion in Chicago and a defending Super Bowl champion in Green Bay but they have enough talent to make dents in the NFC. It's just a matter of keeping everyone on the field.

3. Chicago Bears

What I like: Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher. That's it. That's the list. The Bears won the North last year thanks to some close wins and some stingy defense. Peppers may not have lived up to his guady contract, but he wasn't a walking stiff either. Urlacher isn't the machine he was a few years ago, but he's still capable of taking over when he's healthy. The team also did QB Jay Cutler a favor by getting him some offensive line help in first round pick Gabe Carimi, a tackle out of Wisconsin, and a new target in former Cowboy Roy Williams. Williams never panned out in Dallas after his much-maligned trade from Detroit but the former Longhorn's lone Pro Bowl season came under Mike Martz, who just happens to be the offensive coordinator in Chicago. Williams' presence, in theory, allows everyone to slip into the roles they are best suited for. Devin Hester has come on as a wideout after being mainly used as corner/return specialist early in his career but he's a #2 at best and Johnny Knox is probably a better fit as the team's #3.

What I don't like: At the risk of sounding bitter, the Bears' division title last year had more to do with luck than talent. A lot of the teams' wins could have went either way and the Bears could have been on the outside looking in instead of in the NFC Championship. This year, there's actual cause for concern. The offensive line gained Carimi but lost its anchor in center Olin Kruetz. His absence forces the team to move Roberto Garza from guard to center, further weakening a terrible unit. This preseason, the Bears have shown an inability to keep Cutler from eating dirt every time he drops back to pass. Further complicating matters are contract squabbles with two of the team's best players. RB Matt Forte has tabled discussions for a new deal but he's felt strong enough about an extension to walk out on camp at one point. LB Lance Briggs is once again demanding a trade out of the Windy City, as he has grown frustrated with negotiating for a new deal. Those are two guys the team can't afford to piss off. My biggest concern with Chicago is Cutler. Coming off a season where his toughness was questioned and where he was upstaged in the biggest game of his career by backup Caleb Hanie, Cutler has to try to prove himself behind an offensive line that may be WORSE than the unit that gave up the most sacks in the league last year and with a new #1 wideout in Williams who has a reputation for having hands of stone. It doesn't help that the division has gotten significantly better since last season.

Bottom line: Lady Luck has never been known to stay in one place too long and, from the looks of things, she's on the first thing smoking out of the Windy City. It's asking a lot for this team to win 11 games again with Cutler running for his life, Briggs and Forte distracted by contract squabbles, and the overall talent taking a hit with the departures of TE Greg Olsen and DT Tommie Harris. At the very least, the team should have been a bit more aggressive in enhancing the offensive line, especially after how embarrassing this team was trying to protect Cutler last season. Instead, a team that set the bar high with an improbable NFC Championship run now sits in a state of flux. With a QB and head coach on a hot seat and holes in so many crucial areas, putting the Bears at 3 might be a bit overly optimistic.

4. Minnesota Vikings

What I like: The 2011 Vikings are a far cry from the team that came within a Brett Favre interception of the Super Bowl two years ago and slightly worse than last year's disappointing bunch but, at the end of the day, it doesn't hurt to have the best running back in football in Adrian Peterson. Peterson is the only real sure shot on this team, which made a lot of drastic changes on both sides of the ball. Donovan McNabb is going to give his career one last shot from the defibrillator after underwhelming in his lone season in Washington. He'll have significantly more talent around him in Minnesota than he ever did with the Redskins. Percy Harvin has supposedly put the migraine issues behind him and is ready to emerge as #1 wideout in his third season. Bernard Berrian is back and, at the very least, is a steady #2. The Vikings two-tight end set features Visanthe Shiancoe and promising rookie Kyle Rudolph. Defensively, Jared Allen and his ridiculous sack dance are back and he'll have one of the better linebacking cores behind him led by Chad Greenway and E.J. Henderson.

What I don't like: McNabb comes to The Land That Prince Built a year too late. The team swapped out Pro Bowl left tackle Bryant McKinnie for former Colt Charles Johnson, making the team a bit unsteady on both ends of the offensive line unless Phil Loadholt can impress in his 3rd season. Suspension and old age has torn apart the once-frightening Williams Wall and DE Ray Edwards fled to Atlanta in free agency. That leaves Jared Allen as the only proven pass rusher until Kevin Williams returns from suspension on a substance abuse beef. The secondary is a bit thinner, too. Antoine Winfield is getting up in age and the rest of the gang doesn't inspire too much hope, especially if offensive lines find ways to muzzle Allen.

Bottom line: Optimism on this year's Vikings depends mainly on your belief that McNabb has something left in the tank. Last year, with every reason to have a chip on his shoulder and prove his doubters wrong, McNabb showed up out of shape and disappointed to the point that he got benched for Rex Grossman midseason. This year, he's being asked to keep the team afloat and avoid the urge to see what it has in first round pick and "QB of the future" Christian Ponder. The Vikings hope they've caught lightning in a bottle twice by going to the "aging QB with something to prove" well with McNabb after hitting a homer with Brett Favre(well, the first year with Favre, at least), but a lot has changed and a lot of questions have to answered immediately. Harvin has to prove he can pick up the slack left by Sidney Rice's departure. The offensive line has to not miss a beat by swapping McKinnie for Johnson. The defense has to somehow suffice without The Williams' boys clogging the middle. Most importantly, McNabb has to show the motivation to resuscitate his career that he didn't show last year and make defenses respect his dwindling talent enough to take pressure off Peterson and not make a back with injury and fumbling issues carry the team. I don't see that happening. McNabb's ability to make plays with his feet is now non-existent, forcing him to become more of a pocket passer.....which would be great if his accuracy hadn't slipped as well. Two years ago, McNabb would have been perfect for this Vikings team but, like with Favre last year, the Vikings are making a losing gamble by rolling the dice that an aging QB has one last hurrah left in him. I think we see Ponder by Week 10 and only a Bears collapse keeps Minnesota out of the cellar.

Super Bowl XLV Preview

Super Bowl XLV kicks off in a few hours. Since hours upon hours have been wasted on various networks on hyperbole for this Packers-Steelers clash, I'll save you all the obligatory preamble stuff.

It's time to touch all bases on what could be the last football game for quite some time:

Over/Unders(Note: I made most of these up)

Number of times Joe Buck and Troy Aikman reference Brett Favre: 4.....bet the over. There's a lot to talk about with these two teams. Both QBs coming full circle, the magnificent play of these two defenses, the Packers bouncing back from 15 players on the IR, Matthews vs. Polamalu, etc. Still, all the talk leading up to this game has been about a guy who won't even be on the field: Brett Favre. Since commentators can't go a Packers game without mentioning Favre, you can expect Aikman and Buck to go the Favre well early and often. Every Rodgers shovel pass will be "Favre-esque". Every lull in action will be filled with the story of how Rodgers became starter and Favre became persona non grata. Every flash back will feature moments from Super Bowls XXXI and XXXII(the two Favre Super Bowls). The only story that has a chance to be talked about more than Favre is Big Ben's tawdry sexual assualt allegations.

Roughing the Passer penalties for Steelers LB James Harrison: 2.....push. I'd like to think that Harrison's impact won't be nearly as big as its been in week's passed because he'll be up against Pro Bowl LT Chad Clifton. That's not to say Harrison won't try to knock A-Rod's head off to give Pittsburgh a better advantage by forcing Green Bay to trot out Matt Flynn. Rodgers does a better job of getting the ball out on time than he did last year, but this offensive line of Green Bay's is still hardly a brick wall. The reason I go push here is because I don't Harrison will be as big a factor as his bookend teammate LaMarr Woodley(who will be up against rookie RT Bryan Bulaga). Still, Harrison has a reputation to keep up and, with refs and league execs not wanting the thrill of this game sapped out by dirty play, expect the whistles to be blown at full force.

300 Yards Passing For Aaron Rodgers.....under: The Packers are going to spread it out and exploit the weaknesses of this Steelers secondary, but Pittsburgh isn't dumb enough to give Rodgers anything deep. I expect there to be a lot of quick slants and screens to start out as McCarthy brainlessly gets conservative early on to avoid turning the ball over. Rodgers is obviously the key to Green Bay's success but he proved last week that he doesn't have to ball out for the Packers to win. With Green Bay wanting to protect Rodgers from this Steelers pass rush, I think we'll see quite a bit of James Starks with Rodgers pulling out a deep bomb or two. Final numbers for A-Rod: 22-30, 2 TD, 1 pick, 268 yards.

300 Yards Passing for Ben Roethlisberger....under: The Packers' secondary is far better than the one Big Ben roasted for 500 yards in their 2009 showdown. On top of that, Ben's offensive line is much worse and Green Bay's pass rush is far more aggressive in Year 2 under Dom Capers. Plus, Pittsburgh would be smart to unleash Rashard Mendenhall on the ground against an average Packer run defense. Roethlisberger can buy time with his quick feet and huge body, so a few bombs to Mike Wallace will happen. Still, the Packers don't want a repeat of last year and I think they'll be a bit more diligent against the pass this time around. Final numbers for Big Ben: 19-27, 257 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.

2 sacks for Clay Matthews.....Over: I'm looking at 3 sacks here for "The Ultimate Warrior". There's a part of me that thinks he takes losing the Defensive MVP award to Troy Polamalu as a slight and goes on an absolute tear on this terrible Steelers offensive line. If Ben gets free from the initial pass rush, nobody will be better at running down the big fella than #52. Anyone who watched clips of Matthews putting Winston Justice on his ass in the Wild Card game against Philly should expect more of the same in this one. The only thing standing in Clay's way will be a few obligatory trips and holds from Flozell Adams. Needless to say, I like Clay a lot tonight.

4 total turnovers for both teams.....push: I predicted a INT a piece for both QBs, and that may be a bit generous if this game becomes a shootout like it's projected to be. It remains to be seen whether the big stage scares the inexperienced Packers here. They haven't had fumbling issues so far, but if there's a butterfingers candidate, it's WR James Jones. With Donald Driver iffy, Jones is going to see a lot of work opposite Greg Jennings. Jones cost the Packers a win against Chicago early in the regular season with a couple costly fumbles. He also got the hands of stone in the Wild Card game against the Eagles. I don't want to jinx my own team here but if anyone seems primed for the goat horns, it may very well be James Jones(although Mike McCarthy is a good choice as well). With two ballhawking defenses like this, there's going to be a lot of strip attempts and corners jumping routes. 2 turnovers a piece isn't impossible, so that's what I'm riding with.

100 yards rushing for Rashard Mendenhall....over: Mendenhall is the kind of back the Packers don't want to see: a powerful inside runner with speed who can break tackles on a whim. The Packers run D hasn't been as stout as it should be and, even with the Steelers' offensive line missing a crucial piece in C Maurkice Pouncey, I like Mendenhall's chances of having a big day if Mike Tomlin doesn't get tempted to go pass-for-pass with Green Bay. The Packers front three is much better than the Jets, so Mendenhall will have to be a bit more elusive than he was two weeks ago. Regardless, the Steelers need Mendenhall to keep Green Bay's D honest and, if there's an Achilles heel for these Packers, it's stopping the run. Final numbers for Mendy: 18 carries, 109 yards, 1 TD.

100 yards receiving for Greg Jennings.....under: The Packers are going to spread the ball around. Jennings clearly has the speed advantage over Ike Taylor but Rodgers ability to find him deep will depend on the time A-Rod has to throw. Rodgers is going to want to get that ball out fast because Woodley and Harrison will be coming in quick. If there's an 100-yard WR at all in this game, I'd put money on it being Mike Wallace, simply because he's the Steelers best big play guy.

The X-Factors

Pittsburgh: TE Heath Miller - The Packers' secondary is going to have its hands full with Hines Ward and Mike Wallace, and with Ben feeling the constant motor of Clay Matthews breathing down his neck, he's going to need a safety valve. That safety valve will be Miller, who came up with quite a few clutch catches against Baltimore in the divisional round. Green Bay's LBs are going to have to be strong in coverage to keep Miller from busting loose and it's a lot for a defense to account when dealing with two solid WRs and a soft-handed, big-bodied tight end while trying to take down a massive QB who is best when throwing on the move. Miller needs to be Ben's guy to keep the chains moving and wear out this injury depleted Packers defense.

Green Bay: DE Cullen Jenkins - NT B.J. Raji got quite a bit of the press as the extroverted star of this Packers' defensive line but, arguably, Green Bay's 2nd best pass rusher is Jenkins. Jenkins will be playing with a heavy heart after spending most of the week dealing with his missing father(who was inevitably found). While Raji certainly has a good chance of dominating the line of scrimmage with Pouncey on the sidelines, the Steelers would be wise to keep an eye on Jenkins too. Jenkins had 7 sacks in the regular season and, at 6'2, 305 lbs, he's a lot for an undermanned offensive line to handle. With the protection focused on Matthews(and even Raji), I see Jenkins exploiting a one-on-one occasionally and making his presence felt.

Super Bowl Unsung Heros

Pittsburgh: C Doug Legursky - All Legursky has to do is fill in for an All-Pro center who helped anchor one of the best rushing attacks in football and play admirably against one of the best 3-4 defensive lines in the NFL on the biggest stage of his career. Sounds simple enough, right? Again, the Steelers need to establish the run to keep Green Bay guessing and Legursky is going to have his hands full with a beast like Raji who is as quick as he is strong. If Legursky flunks in keeping Raji or any of the other Packers defenders at bay, the Steelers are probably toast. A QB, even one of Roethlisberger's size, can't expect to produce with an inside rush constantly in his face. The Steelers' offensive line has gotten lucky enough given all the patchwork it has utilized all season. Legursky has to be its next big miracle.

Green Bay: LB Erik Walden - While this game has been billed as a showdown between two great young QBs, their success depends on how they handle two great defenses. Walden has emerged as of late in filling in for Frank Zombo(who was filling in for Brad Jones). He's an athletic pass rusher who, like Jenkins, will benefit from attention being paid to the bigger names on this defense. Walden's strong play against Chicago in Week 17 helped get the Packers in the playoffs and a big game here would punctuate a rollercoaster season for this Packers defense. Now, prior to the NFC Championship, Sam Shields would get the call here but his 2-INT day against Chicago has made him less of a secret. The same goes for RB James Starks, who is the postseason's leading rusher but will probably have a tougher time adding to those numbers against a stonewall Steelers run defense. A big game by Starks, though, could make things interesting next season in Green Bay's backfield with Ryan Grant coming back from ankle surgery and Brandon Jackson a free agent.

Finally.....the only paragraph that matters......

Packers (-2.5) vs. Steelers

Pick: Steelers - Look, the reverse jinx has gotten us this far, right? The Packers are the better team but they are also the least experienced. Pessimistic Packers fans like myself have been waiting for Mike McCarthy to crop dust the field with brain farts this entire postseason. Does it happen here? That remains to be seen. Still, the worst thing that could happen to these Packers was the showering of hype they've received over the last two weeks combined with Vegas making them nearly a field goal favorites against a team that won a Super Bowl two years ago and is coming into this game as the 2 seed in a stronger conference. Roethlisberger vs. Rodgers will be one for the ages but the physicality of this Steelers defense worries me some, as does the tendency in these playoffs for the refs to slurp the Steel Curtain. Player safety will be paramount here so expect a few chintzy roughing calls. The same can be said for pass interference. Given the aggressiveness of both defenses, their inability to avoid dumb penalities, and the frequency of passing from both offenses, we could see a lot of non-Terrible Towel related yellow laundry on the field. Game plan will be key. Pittsburgh has a better chance of having success mixing it up on offense given Green Bay's weakness against the run. Green Bay, however, has the better QB and there is nobody in the building who wants to bury the memory of Brett Favre more than Aaron Rodgers. Experience didn't help Indianapolis last year against the "underdog" Saints but lightning doesn't strike the same place twice. I expect a MVP-calibur day from Mendenhall as both QBs trade strikes. Inevitably, McCarthy blows this one down the stretch and the Steelers win by a field goal.

Final: Pittsburgh 24, Green Bay 21.......Dave Leonardis obscenities: 167.

MVP: Ben Roethlisberger - QBs always have the edge in the MVP voting and Big Ben has missed out on two MVPs in his previous two Super Bowls. I like Mendenhall as the dark horse here but something tells me Tomlin will ratchet up the passing game to try to blow for blow with Green Bay(as opposed to running it down the Packers' throats, wearing down the D and keeping A-Rod off the field). That may be at Tomlin's demise but, from a storyline standpoint, I can see Big Ben going from pariah to Super Bowl MVP. Obviously, as a Packers fan waiting 12 years for another Super Bowl and as someone who wants to see Aaron Rodgers get that monkey off his back, I'm hoping I'm dead wrong with these last two paragraphs......but you never know. That's why we play the games.

Cut His Mic Off Award: Lil Wayne

"Green and Yellow", a song by New Orleans-born/diehard Packer fan Lil Wayne, which is a play on the equally atrocious "Black and Yellow" by Wiz Khalifa(which, mind you, has zero to do with the Pittsburgh Steelers)




Normally, I'd be quick to co-sign an ode to my favorite football team.....but when it's coming from one of my least favorite rappers, who has spent an entire career putting the city of New Orleans on his back, I'm afraid I'm going to have to pass.

Look, some may say it's hypocritical for me, a fist-pumping, Sopranos-loving, Jersey-born Packers fan, to rip on Lil Wayne for his latest public allegiance to the newly minted NFC Champion Green Bay Packers. You're certainly just in your outrage, haters. Fans can come from anywhere. There's no rule in the fan handbook that says that you can only support your local team. Of the four major sports, only one(the New Jersey Devils) reside in the place I grew up. My main issue with Weezy's opus is the timing. For one, he's clearly trying to capitalize off the popularity of "Black and Yellow"(the latest tumor on hip-hop's cancer-ridden body) by making the obvious switch from Steeler colors to Packer colors. Second, for someone who is such a hardcore Cheesehead....where was this song months ago? I'm not supposed to find it a tad suspicious that a rapper with numerous "New Orleans Nightmare" mixtapes out is deciding to drop a song about his supposed favorite football team a week before they are about to play in the Super Bowl? How much different is this from Lindsay Lohan sitting courtside during the NBA Finals in a Kobe jersey?

Naturally, I'm always looking for a reason to throw shots at Wayne(since no gunman is smart enough to do it), so perhaps some of my angst comes from my shear dislike for the guy, but prior to writing this I Googled "Lil Wayne Packers fan" and found one picture(the one you'll find above). One. There's no pictures of him hugged up with Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews(whom he name drops in the song). No pics of him sitting in the press box at Lambeau Field. No shots of him in a Reggie White jersey. Nothing. Where's the Brett Favre dis record, Weezy? And if you're the "best rapper alive", why resort to biting off another terrible rapper's track? All that time in the clink didn't allow you to come with something a bit more original? Also, how pissed is the city of New Orleans right now? You don't think they would have liked an anthem to bump around this time last year, when the Saints were competing for the Lombardi Trophy, from their hometown hero?

Again, Wayne could very well be a honest-to-God Packers fan and the lack of public evidence and timing of "Green and Yellow" could just be coincidental. Still, there's never a good reason to NOT cut Lil Wayne's mic off and, until I find a reason to legitimize his Cheesehead status, that's exactly what I'm going to do right...about...NOW.

In This Corner.....

"To be the man, you gotta beat the man!" - Ric Flair

Tomorrow kicks off the NFL postseason, and this year's tournament has a little something for everybody. We've got a couple lovable underdogs(Kansas City, Seattle), some old school, blue collar smashmouth teams (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chicago), a few that like to air it out(Green Bay, New Orleans, Indianapolis, Atlanta, New England), a feel-good comeback story(Philadelphia) and even a reality TV star(New York).

Today, we're going to break down the teams to beat in their respective conferences, who has the best chance of knocking them off, and who are this year's dark horses, X-Factors and potential breakout stars. In the process, there will be plenty of pop culture boxing and wrestling references that will inevitably get me made fun of by Gabe.

Paper Champion(the conference favorite): New England Patriots - The Patriots have reverted back to handling business like they did in the pre-Randy Moss years, relying on chemistry and rhythm rather than loading up on the big play downfield. Go-routes have been traded in for quick slants, bubble screens and the occasional hand-off or two. New England managed to finally find an adequate running game via "The Lawfirm", BenJarvus Green-Ellis(1,008 yards rushing, 13 TDs). The effectiveness of Ellis on the ground has kept defenses from focusing on Tom Brady, which has led to Brady not turning the ball over in two months. Defensively, the Patriots' bend-but-don't-break defense is what makes this team more Piston Honda than Mr. Dream(or Mike Tyson, for those who didn't play the original Punch-Out). The team doesn't have a pass rusher with more than 5 sacks(OLB Tully Banta-Cain) and, outside of rookie CB Devin McCourtey's 7 picks, no other player has more than 3 interceptions. That's led to the Pats being near the bottom in pass defense(30th) and total yardage allowed(25th), and is the chief reason why this Patriots team may not steamroll through the playoffs like many are assuming.

The Contender(team with the best chance of knocking off the champ): Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens are the last team to intercept Brady, picking him off twice in their 23-20 OT loss to New England back on Oct. 17th. The Ravens also possess the ability to strike at New England's Achilles' heel, which is pounding the ball inside with the run game as well as be physical and aggressive enough on defense to smack Brady in the mouth. That was the formula Baltimore used to trounce the Patriots in Foxboro last year and this year's version of the Ravens now have a passing game to complement The Ray Rice Show. You could throw the Pittsburgh Steelers in the mix here, too, but only if DE Aaron Smith manages to come back from a torn triceps that kept him out most of the season(which the chances of that are slim) as well as if S Troy Polamalu can stay healthy(also no guarantee).

Little Mac Award:(team with an outside shot becoming champion): New York Jets - The Jets spent the offseason in "win now" mode, uniting every title-hungry veteran in the Meadowlands as if they were filming an NFL version of "The Expendables". Gang Green has been up and down all year, faced with its own inconsistency(the terrible second half play of QB Mark Sanchez and the disappearance of LaDainian Tomlinson down the stretch, for starters) as well as a myriad of distractions(Braylon Edwards' DUI, the filming of "Hard Knocks", the Brett Favre-Jenn Sterger fiasco, Michelle Ryan's foot fetish videos), and that has tempered some of the early season Super Bowl hype. That may work in the Jets' favor. 11-5 teams ranked in the top 5 in nearly every defensive category with a QB that's playoff seasoned and a run game that ranks among the top in the league can be a scary team to face(especially in the cold). The X-Factor for New York will be Tomlinson. Left for dead by the San Diego Chargers after years of coming oh-so-close to the Super Bowl, LT ran with a vengeance early in the season and then tapered off in the last couple of months(less than 60 yards rushing every game since mid-October). Time will tell whether it's because Rex Ryan was saving his aging lead back for the playoffs or it's a further sign of decline for the future Hall of Famer. Regardless, an L.T./Shonn Greene combination as well as Sanchez finally finding a game breaker in former Steeler WR Santonio Holmes(another guy with playoff seasoning) may give the Jets the type of balance that makes them a tough matchup these next few weeks(especially against their opening round opponent, Indianapolis, which is soft against the run). On defense, they haven't missed NT Kris Jenkins much, as the team finished the regular season third in run defense. OLBs Jason Taylor, Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas provided a fierce pass rush, with all three notching over 5 sacks a piece(Taylor leading the way with 6), although the secondary hasn't been able to take full advantage of the pressure the front seven has provided(a surprisingly low 12 team INTs).


Mickey Ward Award(player with the most to prove): Ravens QB Joe Flacco - This was supposed to be "The Year of Jersey Joe". With wide receivers Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, and Donte Stallworth added to an arsenal that already featured fellow wideout Derrick Mason and versatile RB Ray Rice, Flacco was supposed to step up into the elite ranks of signal callers. Flacco's numbers were respectable(62% completion percentage, nearly 3,700 yards passing, 25 TDs, 10 INTs) but the offensive line has failed him at times(40 sacks allowed). We all know no team can succeed in January without at least competent QB play(even though the Ravens last title came with Trent Dilfer leading them), so it goes without saying that the Ravens are screwed if Flacco isn't ready for primetime. Still, the case can be made that no QB in the AFC has as many high-profile weapons as Flacco does and, with a defense littered with stars whose championship window is closing quickly(MLB Ray Lewis, S Ed Reed), the Ravens' fate lies in the hands of their 6'6 238-pound gunslinger.


Hasim Rahman Award(guy most likely to go from nothing to something): Eric Berry, S, Chiefs - It's hard to say a rookie heralded as "the next Ed Reed" can possibly fly under the radar and become an overnight celebrity(especially after a 92-tackle, 2 sack, 1 forced fumble, 4-INT rookie campaign), but Berry has the skills to make his mark in these playoffs. Normally, breakout stars are found on the offensive side of the ball(as we saw with Pierre Garcon and Shonn Greene last year), but fantasy football has emerged to the point where any run-of-the-mill offensive playmaker can become a household name with a breakout game(which is why this spot wasn't given to Patriots TE's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez). The Chiefs are a team with no real notable wins, which is why many have written them off as "one and done" once they host Baltimore on Sunday. However, since Baltimore's defense will stifle the Chiefs' underrated offense for most of the night in Arrowhead, Kansas City's best shot at an upset will be to match the Ravens' efforts defensively. Given how important safety play has become in the NFL, that means we're looking at a potentially big game for Berry.

Pacquaio-Mayweather Award(conference's most anticipated matchup): Colts at Patriots - As much as I hate the slurpfest that these New England-Indianapolis matchups end up becoming in the pregame hype leading up to kickoff, there's no denying that Brady vs. Manning is this generation's Marino vs. Montana(or Aikman vs. Young or Marino vs. Elway, whichever you choose).

The Brady-Manning showdowns almost always live up to the hype, with this year's regular season clash being no exception. The Colts attempted to come back from a double-digit deficit but a Peyton Manning interception on the potential game-winning drive gave New England the win. With New England and Indianapolis hardly possessing lights out defenses, a potential rematch between the two will no doubt be another shootout and, while matchups against the Jets, Steelers or Ravens would be entertaining, no team is better at playing the foil to the Patriots than Manning's Colts.

TV Champion(The conference favorite): Atlanta Falcons - They trot out the NFC's most balanced attack combined with being nearly untouchable at home. If The Carolinas are "Flair Country, the A-T-L is "Matty Ice Land". Matt Ryan, in his third year, is a long playoff run away from stepping into the next tier of franchise QBs. Helping him along the way will be bruising running back Michael "The Burner" Turner and Ryan's pass-catching tag team partner Roddy White. The Falcons' balance on offense is their calling card. Their suspect defense, however, is what makes them a shaky favorite. Despite being 5th in points allowed, the are 22nd against the pass, and 16th in total yards. That's a bit troubling in a conference that will see them face pass-heavy teams like Philly, Green Bay or New Orleans. Luckily, the Falcons get to play host in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome, where the team has lost three times in head coach Mike Smith's three years and where Ryan has lost just twice as a starter. What goes against the Falcons, other than their leaky pass D, is their relative inexperience. Ryan made the playoffs a couple years ago as a rookie, but still doesn't have a playoff W. The Falcons also don't have a convincing win against a legit contender this season. Atlanta got some Charles Robinson-type poor officiating to help them beat Baltimore a couple months ago, and they edged out New Orleans by way of a shanked Garrett Hartley chip shot in OT as well as sneaking out a win against Green Bay thanks to a bad facemask penalty setting up the game-winning field goal. Of the top seeds in these playoffs, the Falcons look like the sketchiest, but that's why we play the games.


The Legend Killer(team with the best chance of knocking off the champ) : New Orleans Saints - As I said earlier, they came thisclose to sweeping Atlanta and they proved their mettle by going into the Georgia Dome two weeks ago and pulling out a W on national television. The Saints have the NFC's best coach(Sean Payton) and best QB(Drew Brees) and, perhaps the biggest factor, they've been here before. Brees is one of two QBs(Mike Vick being the other) with a playoff win to his name in the NFC and, even though rookie QBs have made big playoff runs in years past, experience goes a long way in the playoffs, especially during crunch time. Defensively, unlike their NFC South rival, the Saints are stout against the pass(but not so much against the run) and they have the easiest of the four Wild Card matchups by drawing a putrid Seahawks team that they crushed in Week 11(34-19 in New Orleans). What will hurt the Saints the most is their lack of a run game. RBs Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas are done for the postseason, meaning the weight now falls squarely on former poster child Reggie Bush to provide some production on the ground. Bush's biggest plays of his pro career have come in the postseason(his electrifying run against Chicago a few years ago and last year's dominance of the Cardinals). If Bush can be even somewhat close to USC Reggie Bush, the Saints are the team to beat in the NFC...hands down.

The Third Man(team with an outside shot of making a surprise run): Green Bay Packers - Call me a homer, but history tends to reflect positively on teams that rank in the top 10 on both sides of the ball. Green Bay possesses the 2nd best overall defense(statistically, at least) and the 10th best scoring offense. They are 5th in total yards allowed and pass defense, 9th in total yards, and 5th in passing. Obviously, what holds Green Bay back is both the lack of a run game and their occasional struggles with stopping the run. Since Ryan Grant went down in Week 1, the team has tried everything short of resuscitating Edgar Bennett to get something going on the ground. Brandon Jackson, the man who was initially drafted to be the Packers' lead back, finished with a little over 700 yards rushing and even his relatively decent games have been few and far between. The Packers' offense still lives and dies through Aaron Rodgers, who put up yet another stellar season(65.7% completion percentage, 3,922 yards passing, 28 TDs and 11 INTs) even despite falling victim to two concussions. The key is keeping Rodgers' upright. The Packers' offensive line, the team's biggest weakness at this point last year, cut down its sacks allowed from 51 last year to 38 this year but still aren't exactly a brick wall when it comes to defending a pass rush. If Rodgers gets time to throw, though, look out. Very few teams in the NFC(or even the NFL) can match offenses with the Packers, especially with the way the defense has played of late. Led by a reigning Defensive Player of the Year(CB Charles Woodson) and the frontrunner for this year's DPOY award(LB Clay Matthews), the Packers have put opposing offenses on lockdown. The road to Dallas will be rough, however. Although they beat Philadelphia at The Linc in Week 1, the win came when the Packers were much healthier than they are now and with Mike Vick on the bench for the first half. If they can somehow repeat their opening week performance, they will then have to go into Atlanta where they lost a close one to the Falcons a couple months ago. If they can survive that, they'll either travel to Chicago for a third showdown with the Bears(who they lost to at Soldier Field earlier in the season) or to NOLA to face the defending champs. The Packers eeked into the playoffs, despite a multitude of key injuries, but if they can stay away from dumb penalties and find a way to pull out wins in close games(two HUGE ifs), this team will be right where many had them in the preseason: The Super Bowl. (Side Note: For those who don't get the "Third Man" reference, take a look at this. P.S. When it comes to announcing, Tony Schiavone makes Jon Gruden look like Vin Scully.)

Most In Need To Get "Over"(Player with the most to prove): Michael Vick, QB, Eagles - As great as this storybook season has been for Mike Vick(62.8% completion, 3,018 yards passing, 676 yards rushing, 30 total TDs, 6 INTs) the best chapter has yet to be written. Vick needs a postseason that mirrors the first half of his regular season to end one of the greatest comebacks in this sport's history. Vick went from the league's most notorious heel to its biggest babyface after coming off the bench for the injured Kevin Kolb and finally realizing the potential that made him a #1 pick in 2001. Finally able to dominate with both his arm and his legs, Vick has morphed into the league's most electrifying player. Still, in the past couple of weeks, Vick's old form has reared its ugly head. For a guy who is often the fastest man on the field, he still takes far too many sacks and his scrambling ability makes him prone to big hits that his smallish frame can't continue to withstand. If the Eagles are going to be serious Super Bowl contenders, everything rides on Number Seven's ability to continue to extend plays with his feet while remaining accurate with his passes. The combination of Vick's versatility and the incendiary speed of playmakers like DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy make the Eagles like a more modern "Greatest Show On Turf", and with Vick's contract up at the year, a lot rides on him closing the show much like he started it.

From Jobber To Superstar(guy most likely to go from nothing to something): Mike Williams, WR, Seattle - Lost in all the glitz of the soon-to-be-a-Hollywood-blockbuster-with-Terrence-Howard-playing-the-lead-role comeback story of Mike Vick is the triumphant return of another Mike: former Lions first round bust Mike Williams. Sure, Williams didn't even have the best season of guys sharing the same name(Tampa's Mike Williams had a better year on a far better team that is far more deserving of a playoff spot than these Seahawks), but he's arguably the best player on the worst team in these playoffs and since we're hours away from forgetting anything sports-related the city of Seattle will have to offer between now and baseball season, we might as well give the Seahawks some face time. As good as the Saints are against the pass, it's tough to really account for a receiver built like BMW("Big" Mike Williams, for you slow-witted folk). Williams runs 6'5, 235 pounds, with hands like magnets and the speed of a minivan. He's pretty much a glorified tight end, but he's going to be Matt Hasselbeck's most reliable target and there's going to be at least a play or two tomorrow where you sit up and say "Oh shit! Who the hell is that!?". The Seahawks' only hope of pulling off a 123 Kid/Razor Ramon-type upset will be if Williams can move the chains and get the loudest crowd in the NFL motivated enough to at least somewhat intimidate the defending champs. I can see BMW reeling in five or six catches and a score as the Seahawks make things interesting on the first drive.....and then proceed to get annihilated for the next 3 1/2 quarters. At least now you can say you know who Mike Williams is before you bother use Wikipedia during the commercial break.


Steamboat vs Flair Award(most anticipated matchup) Eagles at Falcons - Eventhough the NFC plays the inferior ugly stepsister to the AFC, there are some good potential matchups on the horizon. Packers-Saints would be exciting, as would Saints-Eagles and maybe even Falcons-Bears. However, in continuing with the "Comeback Story of Mike Vick" theme, this postseason can really only shape up one way: With Mike Vick trying to lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl by going into the place that he once packed to the rafters and taking on his successor. Mike Vick vs. the team that threw him away IN Georgia. You can't script it better than that. The place will be filled with deafening mixed emotions, with some glad to see Mike Vick back while others unwilling to forgive him for why he left. On top of that, it pits two of the most exciting offenses in the league against each other, on the Georgia Dome carpet, for a chance at representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. As much as it goes against every fiber in my being to root against my Packers, the only way I can digest a Eagles win this weekend would be if it led to Vick inevitably stepping foot into the place he once called home, staring out into the crowd he once flipped off "Stone Cold" Steve Austin-style, and putting on a show similar to his Madden-like performance against the Redskins on Monday night.

Pay-Per-View Headliners(the five, er, six best potential Super Bowl matchups):



Honorable Mention: Seahawks-Jets - Barring some kind of Disney-scripted fairy tale postseason run, this has absolutely NO SHOT at happening. However, if Seattle can pull off a Cinderella run, we get Mark Sanchez against the college coach that chastised Sanchez's decision to declare early. We get a week's worth of Rex Ryan soundbites, a chance to see LaDainian Tomlinson in the Super Bowl, the first ever Super Bowl matchup featuring a team that finished the regular season with a losing record. There's also Seattle getting its revenge after the referees screwed them over in 2005(Sorry, Steeler fans!), as well as the biggest sports market in the country going ape shit for two straight weeks(and maybe even more if Carmelo Anthony goes to the Knicks or Nets somewhere in that timeframe). Sanchez gets to do his best Ben Roethlisberger impression and go from AFC Championship in his rookie year and Super Bowl in his second(and maybe even a sexual assault in his postgame), and Darrelle Revis gets to babysit Antonio Cromartie's 8 kids while trying to find something to keep him entertained during his defense of Mike Williams. How can you not root for this? Oh, because of the potential words "Super Bowl winning QB Charlie Whitehurst", huh?

5. Jets-Falcons: Obviously, all the Jets' reasons from the last paragraph are in play here as well. The media circus behind this Jets team would be phenomonal, and you know we'll get at least two or three good Rex Ryan quotes during the interviews leading up to the big game. LaDainian Tomlinson gets to return home to Texas, much like Jerome Bettis did in Detroit in '05, and possibly end his career with a ring(though I don't think this is the end for LT). A couple storybook endings for Jason Taylor and Tony Gonzalez, two of the best people the sports world has seen in this generation. You get a battle between two up-and-coming QBs in Mark Sanchez and Matt Ryan, and the potential for Ryan to build on his "Matty Ice" legacy with a 4th quarter drive. There's Jets team officials trying to both keep Braylon Edwards off the bottle and Antonio Cromartie from knocking up any Dallas cheerleaders. A "student vs. teacher" plotline with Michael Turner against L.T, the inevitable deflection of questions about the Jets' sexual harrassment lawsuit as well as Michelle Ryan questions, Telemundo getting excited about possibly the first Latin Super Bowl-winning QB, "Rowdy" Roddy White vs. Revis Island, and of course, Rex Ryan soundbites(Yup, so good, it had to be mentioned twice!).

4. Steelers-Eagles: Only for the sole purpose that, when this one is over, the man hoisting the Lombardi Trophy will either be a man twice accused of sexual assault who will be winning his third ring in seven years or a man who spent nearly two years in prison for bankrolling a dogfighting ring. Maybe it's not "exciting" from a football standpoint, although both offenses are good enough to keep it from being a snoozefest, but from a storyline standpoint alone, it's a matchup that will make Roger Goodell sweat and reporters salivate on Media Day.

3. Ravens-Falcons: It's the age-old showdown of a great defense against a great offense. It's a matchup between the two marquee QBs of the 2008 NFL Draft, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. It's the potential last hurrah for two sure-fire Hall of Famers(Ray Lewis and Tony Gonzalez) and another possible Canton resident(Ed Reed), and maybe even a last goodbye for Derrick Mason. It's a rematch of perhaps the only entertaining Thursday night game all season and a game that ended with some very suspect officiating at the end. It's a chance for John Harbaugh to steal a little of the spotlight from his San Fran-bound brother, and it's a chance for two cities(one that had its team stolen from them in the middle of the night, the other a team that lost the biggest star the team has ever had to dogfighting) to finally stand on top of the world.

2. Packers-Patriots: A rematch of the two's hotly-contested battle a few weeks ago, this time with Aaron Rodgers(hopefully) filling in for Matt Flynn(it's also a rematch of the '96 Super Bowl, the last one the Packers won, but that may be too dated to matter that much). It's a showdown between two of the league's best QBs and a shot to finally step out of the shadow of Brett Favre for Rodgers. It's arguably the league's smartest coach and most meticulous gameplanner against argaubly one of the game's dumbest coaches and worst crunchtime coaches. It will be a nice cherry on top of a battered sundae for the Packers or yet another notch on the belt of the great Tom Brady.

1. Saints-Patriots: Brees! Brady! That should pretty much say it all. Incase it doesn't, how about this: Reggie Bush doing his best Desmond Howard impression, reporters trying to get a halfway decent quote from Bill Belichick and Sean Payton, endless jokes about Brady's hair, Brees replacing Peyton Manning as Brady's biggest competition for immortality, Brees also getting a shot to play "Legend Killer" for another great QB in back-to-back years, another reason for a huge New Orleans party, Mark Wahlberg vs. Harry Connick Jr., one more week of yelling "Lawfirm!" at BenJarvus Green-Ellis, one more week of yelling "Ray J's Sloppy Seconds!" at Reggie Bush......oh, and it's Brady vs. Brees....and it really doesn't get much better than that.

The Pick: Patriots over Saints - I had Ravens over Packers in the preseason and, as much as I would like to stick to my guns here, both of those teams commit way too many dumb penalties and have too many glaring weaknesses to be relied upon. I do think the Ravens have the best shot at beating New England, but it's hard to bet against this Pats team right now. As for New Orleans, the only team with a legitmate shot at beating them in the NFC is Philly and there's a puncher's chance that the Eagles don't make it out of the first round. I have no faith in Atlanta....not enough convincing wins against tough opponents, not enough experience in the playoffs and, certianly, not enough defense. As good as Matt Ryan has been, he's not winning a shootout with Drew Brees in the playoffs. I like New England over New Orleans because the Patriots can run the ball better and Brady is less likely to make big mistakes than Brees is. As much as I'd like to see the Jets and my Packers here, I think we're looking at another parade in Beantown and another spring of annoying Pats bandwagon fans going nuts. Sorry, America.

NFC North Preview

Slowly but surely, we are plowing away at these divisional previews. Here's our look at the NFC North.

Dave:

1. Green Bay Packers: I'm basing this on call on three things: 1. Everything fell in place for the Vikings in Year 1 with Brett Favre at QB and I'm hard-pressed to believe lightning will strike twice for them in Year 2. 2. I also think the Packers' offensive line was the only thing that kept Green Bay from the Super Bowl last year and I just can't see that unit being that bad(league-worst 51 sacks allowed last year) again. 3. I'm a bit of a homer. Sue me.

I've always been one to find preseason meaningless. After all, these same Packers ran through the exhibition season like a tornado last year, not allowing a sack and looking like the second coming of the '99 Rams, and then we saw what happened once the games started to matter. This year, it's pretty much the same deal. The Packers are coming off dropping 59 points on the Super Bowl runner-up Indianapolis Colts in the third game of preseason and the media frenzy around heralding Green Bay as a Super Bowl contender has surged once again.

Now, I told you people a couple years ago that Aaron Rodgers was the real deal(granted, not on THIS site, but still) and now it looks like I am right. Rodgers is a legit Top 5 QB, with the chance to crack the Top 3 with another big year. When you throw over 4,000 yards and 30 TDs(as well as a mere 7 picks) when your offensive line is giving you no help, you are a damn good QB. This year, the Packers' swiss cheese O-Line is expected to be better. Aging tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher are finally healthy(or at least, reasonably healthy) and the surprise story of camp is first round pick Bryan Bulaga, a OT out of Iowa, playing admirably enough at guard to possibly crack the starting lineup. If Rodgers gets protection, he has a bevy of options. There's emerging superstar Greg Jennings as A-Rod's top deep threat, consistent chain-mover Donald Driver opposite Jennings, and a couple of solid youngsters in Jordy Nelson and James Jones as the 3rd and 4th option. Then, there's the guy I'm most excited about in this Packers' air attack: TE Jermichael Finley. If you read my All-Breakout Team piece(and you should, if you haven't), you'll know I think this is the year Finley busts loose. He's tall(6'5), big(260lbs), with good speed and great athleticism. Rodgers has hit him frequently in the preseason and that's not going to change once the season kicks off. When the Packers aren't airing it out, they can hand it off to vastly underrated back Ryan Grant. Since 2007, only one man has more rushing yards than Grant(Adrian Peterson). He's gotten his fumbling issues in check and he's even decent catching passes out of the backfield(although that job will mainly be handled by Brandon Jackson, who is the perfect change-of-pace option for Grant, if he can stay healthy).

The defense is where I'm a bit worried. CB Charles Woodson won the Defensive Player of the Year award last year, but he's 34. The guy who is normally opposite him, Al Harris, is on the PUP list, as is safety Atari Bigby. Tramon Williams filled in admirably a couple years ago for Harris but his place in the starting lineup hurts the overall depth in the secondary. Still, the Packers can pick it with Woodson and Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins in the defensive backfield. As for the front seven, DE Johnny Jolly is gone(facing a one-year suspension) and the team tried to soften the blow by drafting 2nd rounder Mike Neal to rotate inside. The key to the Packers D-Line in Year 2 of Dom Capers' 3-4 will be last year's first round pick B.J. Raji becoming the disruptive force inside many thought he would be on Draft Day. If Raji is up to snuff, a defensive line of Raji, massive NT Ryan Pickett and pass-rushing end Cullen Jenkins looks mighty formidable. As for the linebackers, it's fight or flight time for A.J. Hawk. Hawk has been decent in his time in Green Bay, but not the dominator he was expected to be after being taken in the Top 5 a few years ago. Fellow inside linebacker Nick Barnett is a tackling machine, but has had trouble staying healthy. On the outside, Clay Matthews returns from a breakout rookie season(10 sacks). Matthews has been slowed by a hamstring injury but is expected to be ready for the regular season. Opposite Matthews will be second-year man Brad Jones, who was adequate last year but hardly a lynchpin on the outside. Matthews and Jenkins are responsible for a majority of the pass rush and with the secondary missing two key members(although rookie Morgan Burnett should fill in for Bigsby brilliantly), someone else is going to have to emerge to keep the Packers from getting bombed on.

So, this could be the year for the Packers. The offensive line has to keep their young stud QB upright and the defense has to continue to improve on their excellent performance from last year. The schedule does them no favors and certainly Minnesota won't lie down for them this year, but there is reason for optimism in Title Town. Then again, we said that last year.

2. Minnesota Vikings*: Brett Favre did what many thought was impossible last year. He came into a new team, with new receivers, fresh off of surgery on his legendary cannon arm and had the best season of his career. He made household names out of bargain bin receivers like Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian. This time, Favre comes late into camp once again with a new ailment: his surgically-repaired ankle. Favre has always been the epitome of toughness since he came into the league, but it just seems far-fetched to have a 40-year old man put on another passing clinic coming off yet another serious injury. Eventually, Father Time catches up with you. The injury to top receiver Sidney Rice doesn't help Favre's cause. Rice could miss up to the first half of the season as he recovers from hip surgery. On top of that, electrifying second-year wideout Percy Harvin(the man who was supposed to benefit the most from Rice's absence) has been slowed by migraines. That opens the door for a couple of cagey vets. There's Bernard Berrian, who was pretty much reduced to a third option(and sometimes fourth option when Favre got TE Visanthe Shiancoe involved). Berrian has speed but has had trouble with a bad case of stone hands at times. The Vikings traded for Dolphins WR Greg Camarillo a week ago. Camarillo wasn't much of a factor with Miami and it will take him time to adjust to the new scheme(not to mention, Favre's lasers), but he could be a Greg Lewis-type fill-in if he pans out. So, Favre is going to have to put on another show with a bum ankle, his top receiver out, his second receiver fragile and his other two merely adequate. The smart call would be the Vikings leaning on all-world back Adrian Peterson for the first half of the season until the receiving core is at full strength, but as we saw last season, Favre is going to take a back seat for long. Eventually, Favre is going to audible out and try to make something out of nothing. That's where this team's downfall will be.

On the plus side, Minnesota has a nasty defense, led by the mullet master Jared Allen and The Williams Wall(Pat and Kevin) on that front line. Rounding out that vaunted Vikings defensive line will be Ray Edwards, who put on quite a show in the playoffs in the hopes of getting paid in the offseason(he didn't). Behind that front four is steady-but-oft-injured MLB E.J. Henderson and two very solid outside linebackers in Chad Greenway and Ben Leber. This front seven is fast, physical and are sure-tacklers. As for the secondary, I'm a bit more skeptical than most. CB Antione Winfield has always been able to overcome being undersized by showing good ball skills and being one of the best tackling corners in the game, but he's 33 and has had his issues with the injury bug in recent years. Opposite him will be former Eagles Pro Bowler Lito Sheppard. Sheppard's filling in for the injured Cedric Griffin, who hurt his knee in the NFC Championship game. Lito is still an adequate corner but he isn't the shutdown kind of a guy he once was. Safeties Madieu Williams and Tyrell Johnson are adequate but they aren't the type of playmakers that the Vikings had when Darren Sharper was patrolling the deep middle a couple years ago.

So, yeah, the Vikings have a lot of pass-rushing talent in that devastating front seven, but any team that gets time to throw will be able to pick apart this secondary. On offense, there's a ton of talent but also a ton of potential for turnovers. Favre's a threat to throw a handful of picks the minute he's feeling lucky and Peterson has had a chronic case of fumblitis since entering the NFL. Last year, everything bounced in Minnesota's favor until Favre killed them at the end. It seems like wishful thinking for that to happen again this year. Favre's older, cagier and a bit more hobbled and now teams won't be foolish enough to underestimate the old man. Minnesota's still a good bet for the playoffs, but a run like last year's? Doubtful.

3. Detroit Lions: This looked like more of a curveball before the preseason, when the Lions showed flashes of being a tough, young team and the Bears showed flashes of being on the clock with the #1 overall pick. Truth be told, I think Detroit and Chicago will combine win less games than Green Bay or Minnesota win individually, but the Lions seem to be more on the right track than their Windy City rivals. For one, their offense is highlighted by the Motor City Triplets(as they are known to me and only me). Matt Stafford made a few rookie mistakes last year, but showed amazing guts in that game against Cleveland(throwing the game winning TD with a busted shoulder, then coming back four days later and taking a beating from Green Bay on Thanksgiving) and there's no denying the kid has a howitzer attached to his shoulder. On the receiving end of that cannon will be Calvin Johnson. "Megatron" hasn't lived up to his press clippings as of yet, mainly because injuries have slowed him, but he's an athletic freak with great speed, solid hops and suction cups for hands. This could be his breakout season. Another young star in the making is the second of Detroit's 1st round picks this year, RB Jahvid Best. Best isn't an every-down type of back, but he's electrifying with the ball in his hands. If he continues to produce with 15-20 touches he'll get a game, the Lions become very interesting to watch going forward. The key is protecting Stafford, who was sacked 24 times in two games and played a couple of those games with a separated shoulder. If Stafford has time to throw, the Lions will step into the 21st century and actually be able to utilize a vertical passing game.

On defense, the lynchpin is 2nd overall pick Ndomukong Suh, the nasty DT from Nebraska. Suh is a disruptive presence on the interior of this Detroit front line and the attention he grabs will open things up for fellow DT Corey Williams(who had back-to-back 7 sack seasons when he last played in a 4-3 scheme in Green Bay) and former Titans DE Kyle Vanden Bosch. Former 49ers Pro Bowler Julian Peterson has lost a step or two but he's still a solid linebacker and will lead a young Lions LB core, including promising MLB DeAndre Levy. In the secondary, safety Louis Delmas made a few plays in his rookie season last year and he's going to have to make a few more to make up for this porous cornerback duo. Chris Houston has great speed but terrible coverage skills and the guy playing opposite him, Jonathan Wade, is a virtual unknown. The lack of playmakers in the secondary means Detroit will keep things just as entertaining on defense as they will when they are on offense.

The Lions are a couple years away but, for the first time in years, they have some pieces in place in the Megatron/Stafford/Best troika and guys like Suh and Delmas on defense. Jim Schwartz has made strides with this team since taking over a year ago. Are they breakout candidate? No. Could they sneak up and win 6 or 7 games this year? Sure.

4. Chicago Bears: All signs point to this being a disastourous season for the Bears. QB Jay Cutler led the league in interceptions last year and is now playing in a Mike Martz-led offense where protection(which was already terrible last year, when Cutler was sacked 35 times) will be at a minimum and Cutler will be firing wild passes constantly. The Bears didn't improve their turnstile offensive line and the running game is still a question mark. Can Matt Forte shake off his disappointing sophomore campaign? Can Chester Taylor get things going if Forte falters? Nobody really knows. Then, there's Cutler's "weapons". Devin Hester, Devin Aroshamadu, Johnny Knox and Earl Bennett are all high-ceiling guys who probably wouldn't be more than #3 wideouts on most teams. In fact, the Bears' best receiving option may be Greg Olsen, which would be great if the TE was utilized more in Martz's scheme. All of that means Cutler could very well be worse than the dreadful display he was last season.

On defense, Chicago replaced the late Gaines Adams by throwing a bucket of money at former Panthers Pro Bowl DE Julius Peppers. When motivated, Peppers is one of the game's dominant forces. Problem is, the keywords there are "when motivated". Carolina wasn't too pressed to keep Peppers because of his history of dogging it whenever he felt like it. Now, the Bears have to expect inspired play from a guy who just signed a HUGE contract. That's a recipe for disaster. Beyond Peppers, the Bears have two solid defensive pieces in DT Tommie Harris and MLB Brian Urlacher. Harris and Urlacher can be disruptive up the middle, but they are almost never healthy. Urlacher missed all of last season with a wrist injury and is already banged up in the preseason. Fellow LB Lance Briggs can make plays but he's a shell of himself after signing his big contract a couple years ago. As for the secondary, Nathan Vasher is gone and the guys in charge of shutting down the passing game are holdover Charles Tillman and youngster Zach Bowman. Bowman had 6 INTs last year and Tillman was an ace at forcing fumbles with 6. Safety Daniel Manning had 92 tackles last year, and he could be a bright spot for this defense but the key will be getting pressure up front. Chicago was in the bottom half of sacks last year and the hope is that Peppers has enough of a fire under his ass to fix that.

The Bears have all the makings of being a train wreck. Their QB, when not being a spoiled pouting baby, is the league's premier turnover machine. There isn't a receiver on this team that scares you unless Hester somehow morphs into the second coming of Torry Holt in this new offense(and, all signs point to Hester having struggles picking it up so far). The running game is suspect and the offensive line might as well be replaced with five large bricks. Bears fans are known for being testy and if Cutler and company falter again, there will be big changes this season in Chi-town.

Gabe:

I am going to skip the fantasy analysis for the rest of these because most of you have had your drafts and don't need the advice anymore. I'll be playing is straight from here on out.

1. Green Bay Packers - What do I like? The offense, especially Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, and their roster of pass catchers. Rodgers is finally starting to get the love he deserves, especially from the fantasy set. Rodgers has shown that one can successfully be "the guy after the guy." Grant is great. Their tight end, Jermichael Finley, established himself as an elite go-to guy. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are still one of the best receiving tandems in the league. If their offensive line is healthy this offense is going to be great.

On defense the only questions are in the secondary. I love their front seven, especially the linebackers. Dave touched on all of the injury issues they are having in the defensive backfield. They'll need to improve but I think they have enough to win what may turn out to be a pretty weak division.

2. Minnesota Fighting Favres - I don't like their offense. Adrian Peterson is great. He is one of the top two or three backs in the league. But...Brett Favre's ankle is hurt. I think it is going to bother him more as the season goes on. Their top receiver, Sidney Rice, is done for the year. Their no. 2, Percy Harvin, gets attacked suddenly by migraines and they never know when they'll strike. Bernard Berrian is a nice compliment receiver, but he's nobody's number 1. They just have too many offensive issues for me to put them ahead of Green Bay.

3. Detroit Lions - This team is coming up. They have a great young nucleus on offense with Matthew Stafford at quarterback, Jahvid Best and Kevin Smith at running back, and Calvin Johnson at receiver. After years of taking garbage in the draft they may have finally gotten it right these last three years.

Their defensive line might be down right nasty. Ndomukong Suh is a full grown man who obviously have no problem unceremoniously planting a veteran in the turf, even if it doesn't count. Just ask Jake Delhomme. I like the addition of Kyle Vanden Bosch as well. Like I said, this team is on the rise and is going to take a huge step forward this year.

4. Chicago Bears - This team has been in free fall for a while now. It's too bad not backing up loud mouth trash doesn't equal completions, because Jay Cutler would be a superstar. Now part of the problem is his receiving corps sucks. I guess if he could throw the ball straight up and let Devin Hester fair catch it they might do better. But Cutler's receivers aren't to blame for all of the interceptions he throws. And he is showing no signs of stopping that either. They have one nice weapon on offense in Matt Forte, but he needs to stay healthy. The defense has added some nice players but I think the offense is going to be terrible. They won't be able to do anything and they are going to lose a lot of games.