They're No Saints

In the coming days, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell will once again lay the hammer down, as was once his M.O. when he first started out as Paul Tagliabue's replacement as the gridiron boss. The target this time around is the New Orleans Saints, namely 22 of the 29 members of their defense whom league offices have concluded after an intense investigation were involved in a special "bonus" program that rewarded players for knocking opponents out of the game or even causing serious injury to opposing players.



This special reward program, as you may assume, violates the NFL's policies on bounties and the punishment that is expected to be handed down to Saints defenders as well as former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams(now with the Rams) and the team itself is expected to make the SpyGate sentence dealt to New England a few years ago look like a slap on the wrist. Fines, suspensions, loss of draft picks.....any combination of those and even more likely all of the above is expected to be levied on the boys from N'awlins for three years worth of head-hunting.







The penalty will most certainly send a message and set a precedent, but if it's a P.R. battle Goodell is expecting to win by coming down hard on the Saints....well, good luck with that. Don't get me wrong: What the Saints did was wrong and justice needs to be served and, knowing Goodell, it most certainly will. However, while you'll get no opposition from even the most jaded fans that taking the field with the intent to injure your opponent for the sole reward of a few extra bucks in your pocket is classless and unacceptable, Goodell is going to find it's going to be an uphill battle getting all of NFL's fan nation to be on his side in this one.







Roger Goodell has bent over backwards to uphold the safety of the players he is employed to look out for. The problem with that is his caution has divided fans into two sides: Those that are willing to accept the changes to the game if it means less long-term injuries to the men we pay good money to see and whose talents hold the keys to our team's success and those that feel Goodell has somehow ripped the spine out of the smashmouth way of play that this game was built on. It's no coincidence offensive numbers have skyrocketed over the last few years since Goodell has implemented stricter rules on the way defenders hit their offensive counterparts. Over the years, we've seen defensive ends back off wrap tackles on quarterbacks out of fear of phantom roughing calls. We've seen defensive backs be less physical with receivers coming off the line and we've seen linebackers and safeties get a bit timid when faced with the opportunity to pop someone going the middle.




There's a reason why guys who lay the wood on opponents like Pittsburgh's James Harrison, Baltimore's Ray Lewis and San Fran's Donte Whitner are so revered by fans. Those men represent the hard-hitting, old-school way of defending those hashmarks. Evolution has made it so checks and balances have to be put in place to keep 240-pound linebackers that run a 4.4 40 from killing their equally athletic rivals. Still, Goodell's approach in recent years is more an example of cutting off your nose to spite your face than something that will be universally accepted as good for the game. After all, last season so many a player take that vaunted cart ride to the infirmary, whether it be guys like Adrian Peterson or Jason Campbell. You can attribute that to the lockout robbing folks of proper conditioning but these are well-conditioned athletes at the end of the day that are paid to stay in good shape.






Goodell's philosophy on how defenders should hit has made life harder for the guys who are paid to stop opposing offenses in their tracks and, conversely, has turned even the most measly of aerial attacks into "The Greatest Show On Turf". Need an example? This past year's Super Bowl featured a Patriots team that was near the bottom in every major defensive category playing a Giants team that ranked dead-last defending the run. New York topped New England because the one thing they do well(rush the passer) was better than the one thing the Pats do well(throw the ball). The Packers went 15-1 with a defense that closely resembled a JV scrimmage. You had three quarterbacks throw for 5,000 yards last year(Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Stafford) and another come within a couple hundred yards of joining them(Eli Manning). Before this season, one man threw for 5,000 yards in a season....and he held the record for most yards in a single season(Dan Marino). When the smoke cleared on the 2011 regular season, Marino's seemingly-unbreakable record was broken....twice.....in the same season. You had a rookie QB with no training camp coming out of an option-heavy offense throw for 4,000 yards and break the rookie season record for passing yards that was set by arguably the greatest passer of our generation. Thanks to Roger Goodell, Cam Newton and Peyton Manning are going to be mentioned in the same breath(and that's not me taking anything away from Cam, but think of how many traditional, pro-ready QB's have come into this league since 1998 and they were all bested by a guy who ran the same offense at Auburn, give or take, that Tim Tebow ran this past season).




What does this have to do with the Saints? Well, nothing. What the Saints did was take Goodell's crackdown on player safety to an extreme and they deserve every last penalty they get. But if Goodell is looking for a nation full of hand-wringing after he lowers the boom on New Orleans, he's going to be disappointed. In protecting the players, Goodell transformed football into two-hand touch. Injuries and hard hits are a part of the game. Yes, malicious intent has no business on the football field but sometimes when you try your hardest to make things safe, you do more harm than good. I don't know whether the Saints' "bounty system" was an act of defiance to try an rebel against Goodell's sissy-fying the game of football, but it wouldn't surprise me if there are few people out there who read about what the Saints were attempting and grin from ear to ear(I, personally, found the "bounty" on Brett Favre in the 2009 NFC Championship amusing. Although I'll confess I'd be livid if one of the Saints deliberately tried to take out Aaron Rodgers in the 2011 opener. I guess you can't have it both ways). It's the way of the world. Some people watch hockey to see Sid The Kid score a hat trick. Some watch it to see two guys slug it out in the middle of the ice. Some football fans live for the fantasy points and the touchdowns. Some want to see a wideout's head get taken off. You can't please everybody. Watch tapes of Ditka's Bears or the old Steel Curtain.....those were teams that prided themselves on setting the tone by using brute force and intimidation to beat opponents. Try telling Ronnie Lott it's not OK to go out and injure people for money. Offenses light up the scoreboard because they play the game without fear. Tom Brady knows that some posturing to the ref after a defender comes too close to his knees will get him the flag he wants. Andre Johnson knows a little contact when the ball's in the air gets him a pass interference call 9 times out of 10. You can't have offensive players scared someone's gunning for your head. You also can't have defenders scared to do their job. There's a middle ground between both issues. It's paper-thin but it exists.



At the end of the day, the Saints went overboard and what happens to them will set the bar for any other team that wants to put prices on the heads of the NFL's golden boys(although a bigger issue going forward is going to be identifying malicious intent. Defenders are paid to hit. How can one differentiate what hits are meant to stop the ballcarrier from those that are intended to put guys on a stretcher?) but I'm not willing to make the Saints out to be villains just yet. Defenders are paid to hit, intimidate and do what they can to impinge offenses from having field days out there. They aren't paid to intentionally cause harm. That's where the line needs to be drawn. In an attempt to protect the players, Roger Goodell made the game more entertaining while also thumbing its nose at its roots. You can't be surprised that some people aren't on board with that.

NFC South Preview

Kickoff to the 2011 NFL regular season is a week away, and who better to break down the league division by division than us.........OK, who better to break down the league, division by division, better than us besides ESPN, NFL.com, Sports Illustrated, Sporting News......you get the point.

Look, you're here for a reason so, for the next week leading up to Packers-Saints from Lambeau Field, I'm going to give you my take on how I think each division will shake out by season's end. Today, it's what I think is the most intriguing division in football: The NFC South.

Enjoy!

1. New Orleans Saints

What I like: A team that couldn't run the ball and struggled to get a pass rush went hard in the draft and locked down another Heisman Trophy-winning running back(since we all know how the last one panned out) in Alabama bruiser Mark Ingram and made another solid pick in Cal defensive end Cameron Jordan. With the lockout robbing rookies of precious practice time, it's hard to project how this year's freshman will fare but Ingram is getting a lot of ROTY love and Jordan was considered by some to be the best pass-rushing end in the draft. What I really liked were the sneaky free agent signings N'Awlins made in the abbreviated offseason. Former Chargers scat back Darren Sproles not only offers a nice change of pace to physical backs like Ingram and Pierre Thomas but is a dynamo in the return game, as proven throughout his career in San Diego. He's a healthier, more productive Reggie Bush(who was dealt to Miami). The team also improved its already solid offensive line with Pro Bowl center Olin Kruetz. Sure, it was hard to recognize Kruetz's all-world talent as a member of Chicago's swiss cheese O-line last year but he's the goods when he's healthy. The signing(or signings) I liked the most though came on the defensive line. Former Brown/Lion Shaun Rogers is a monster on the interior and, unlike in past years, he'll get some extra air thanks to the presence of fellow fresh face Aubreyo Franklin(signed away from San Francisco). Franklin and Rogers(which sounds like a way better TV show than "Franklin and Bash") will team with former first rounder Sedrick Ellis as well as Jordan and Pro Bowler Will Smith to give the Saints the best defensive line its had in years.

Still not impressed? Well, their quarterback is still Drew Brees. Perhaps you've heard of him. And he's a mortal lock for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs in this explosive offense. Also, study up on the name "Jimmy Graham". You'll be hearing it a lot this year.

What I don't like: The new and improved D-line is going to have to make up for the lack of talent in the secondary. Cornerback Tracy Porter is best known for his theatrics in the postseason during New Orleans' Super Bowl run two years ago but he's hardly a shutdown corner. The other members in the defensive backfield aren't awe-inspiring either. Former Buckeye Malcolm Jenkins is the heir apparent to Darren Sharper at free safety but he has the tendency to get burnt crispy on deep passes. Strong safety Roman Harper can thump with the best of them but we saw in the Wild Card game against Seattle that he can miss some tackles....and Jabari Greer? Please.

Bottom line: With all the hype thrown at the defending champs in Green Bay and an Eagles team that has signed everyone short of T.O., people have forgotten about the Saints. That will be at their own peril. Tradition tells us that being able to dominate on both sides of the trenches is the key to success. It also helps if you have one of the best offenses in the country, as we saw with the Packers last year. The Saints are the team to beat in the South and, in my opinion, the road to Indy comes through Bourbon Street this year.

2. Atlanta Falcons

What I like: Like New Orleans, Atlanta can sling it with the best of them and they have good balance on offense with the powerful Michael Turner at running back. Making that offense even more deadly is the addition of former Alabama standout wide receiver Julio Jones, whom the team traded everything short of stock in Home Depot to move up and get on Draft Day. Jones and Pro Bowler Roddy White as well as future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez is an embarrassment of riches for QB Matt Ryan, who is steadily creeping into Brady-Rodgers-Manning territory as one of the game's elite passers. Offensively, this could be the second coming of "The Greatest Show On Turf".

What I don't like: Defensively, however, we could be seeing a lot of shootouts in the A-T-L. The Falcons signed Ray Edwards away from Minnesota to tag team with John Abraham and give Atlanta the pass rush that they were sorely lacking when Green Bay came into the Georgia Dome and lit them up like the Christmas tree outside Rockefeller Center. Still, Edwards is hardly a proven commodity. His best performances came two years ago during the Vikings' magical postseason run that was stopped dead in its tracks by Brett Favre and his usual gambling act. Beyond those two, the Falcons have a couple stars but no standouts. MLB Curtis Lofton may be the best linebacker you're not talking about, but he's more a tackle machine than a game changer. Dunta Robinson isn't a lockdown-type corner. He's just paid like one. Brent Grimes is a decent young corner but the team is still thin in the secondary, which puts them behind the 8-ball in a conference that has Philly, Green Bay and New Orleans slinging it all over the field.

Bottom line: Experience gives Atlanta the edge over everyone's sexy pick in Tampa Bay but if the Falcons are the Super Bowl contender everyone thought they were last year when they locked down the #1 seed in the NFC, they need to show they can stop teams as well as they score on them. I'm not convinced they can do that and if the Bucs can sure further maturation, this will be a down year for the Dirty Birds. Offensively, they'll be as good as anyone but what happens when defenses figure out Ryan and company and the Falcons have to make a stop? My guess is, they'll be on the short end of the stick. For now though, I'll give them the two spot and a real chance at a Wild Card berth.

3. Tampa Bay Bucs

What I like: Two words. Josh Freeman. In his first real season as a starter, all J-Fresh(as he's known to me and only me) did was complete 62% of his passes, throw for 3,500 yards and 25 TD's and win me a couple fantasy football leagues. Oh, and did I mention he did this with two rookies as his starting wideouts and another rookie(an undrafted rookie by the name of LaGarrette Blount) as his lead back? This year, nobody's sleeping on the Bucs. Freeman, Blount and second-year man Mike Williams form an impressive young trio on offense and TE Kellen Winslow Jr. is a force when healthy, which is almost never but still. Defensively, the team is reaping the benefits of solid drafting. After doubling up on defensive tackles last year in the form of Gerald McCoy and Brian Price, the Bucs went back to the defensive line well in DE's Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers. Bowers was projected to be the #1 overall pick in this past year's Draft before questions about his knees surfaced and forced him to drop to Round 2 and my buddy Carlos has raised his blood sugar exponentially by drinking the Kool-Aid on Clayborn. Beyond that front four, rookie MLB Mason Foster looks like a keeper and play-making corner Aqib Talib dodged a bullet(pun intended) by avoiding suspension on a weapons charge beef. On paper, the Bucs are young and scary.

What I don't like: On paper, the Bucs are YOUNG and scary. We've seen young teams crumble when they finally get a taste of the spotlight and can't sneak up on opponents anymore. Beyond Ronde Barber and maybe Winslow, the team has no seasoned veterans. Even head coach Raheem Morris(who I would have bet my life was gonna get canned last year) is a baby compared to his coaching peers. How will they handle pressure? How did the lockout affect them? What can we expect from Freeman in Year 2? Or Blount, for that matter? There's plenty of questions on this youthful Bucs team. Talent-wise, they can win this division, but it's a matter of being proven and that's where I pump the brakes on the bandwagon.

Bottom line: The hype machine has quelled the fire of many young teams who proved to be not quite ready for primetime. We saw this with the Browns during the Derek Anderson/Braylon Edwards years. We've seen it with the Texans. Hell, we even saw it with the Packers teams during the first couple years under Aaron Rodgers. The target is on the backs of these young Bucs and they've looked Muhammad Ali shaky(I know, I know, harsh) in the preseason. Everything fell into place for them last season but that kind of luck doesn't strike twice in consecutive years. The case can be made that Tampa Bay was hurt the worst by the lockout. Freeman will take the next step and prove to be Big Ben 2.0 but I'm not ready to push my chips to the middle of the table on his comrades. Blount needs to learn how to pass block and be an every-down back and Arrellious Benn, the team's 2nd rounder last year, needs to emerge to take pressure off Williams. The Bucs will be fun, but it remains to be seen if they'll be successful.

4. Carolina Panthers

What I like: I love the swagger, personality and promise of #1 overall pick Cam Newton. I just didn't love the idea of giving up on Jimmy Clausen after less than a full season and selecting another project at QB, especially when the more pro-ready Andrew Luck will be available next year. I'm either further against the idea of giving Newton the keys to the offense in Year 1 when he's been inconsistent, at best, in the preseason. Whatever sells tickets, I guess. So what do I like about Carolina? Well, the DeAngelo Williams-Jonathan Stewart speed-power combo is back to tote the rock for the Panthers and take pressure off Cam-Cam. Steve Smith, who was trying his best to leave subtle hints that he wants out of Carolina, is back to be the #1 wideout yet again. The most intriguing weapons for Newton will come at tight end, where the team signed former Pro Bowler Jeremy Shockey and traded for ex-Bear Greg Olsen. Olsen's already proven to be the steadier of the two, which will be great when Shockey breaks his leg in Week 2. Defensively, the team spent the money it wouldn't give Julius Peppers a year ago and overpaid Charles Johnson and his one big season. The team also brought back linebacker Thomas Davis, who missed all of last season due to injury. The defense will be improved under new head coach Ron Rivera, even if they won't be well-known.

What I don't like: As I mentioned before, I'm not crazy about Newton starting from Week 1 but Clausen has done nothing to make believers out of his doubters and may eventually cost Mel Kiper Jr. a large amount of respect for going all-in on the former Irish QB last year. The defense, especially in a division with three very good offenses, is going to get beat a lot, especially since the offense won't keep them off the field very long. It also doesn't help matters that the team's four biggest playmakers(Williams, Stewart, Smith and Shockey) aren't very durable. For all the potential Newton possesses, there's a chance that this team is WORSE than last year's 2-14 campaign. The secondary is ho-hum and, while Jon Beason is a stud at MLB, he's the only guy on this defense you could give that distinction and the lockout kept Rivera from really giving this team the coach-up job it would need to be less of a disaster out there.

Bottom line: Last season was an ugly one for the Panthers and this season will be significantly uglier if the team flops again and it sits at the top of the Draft in April staring at Andrew Luck having already spent two high picks on QBs in two years. Newton will dazzle at times and disappoint elsewhere. He's coming from a flash-card offense at Auburn to having to learn the pro game with almost no offseason to practice. If the aforementioned core four stay healthy, the Panthers can put up some points but that's a big if. More likely, the team will struggle in Year 1 of the Newton/Rivera Era, trade Smith midseason and pray to God that another team plays worse than them so they aren't having to trade out of the top spot and become forever known as "The Team That Passed On Andrew Luck Because It Took Its QB A Year Too Early". If you thought Hurricane Irene devastated the Carolinas this past week, then you better buckle up for the next natural disaster to hit Charlotte: The 2011 Panthers.

In This Corner.....

"To be the man, you gotta beat the man!" - Ric Flair

Tomorrow kicks off the NFL postseason, and this year's tournament has a little something for everybody. We've got a couple lovable underdogs(Kansas City, Seattle), some old school, blue collar smashmouth teams (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chicago), a few that like to air it out(Green Bay, New Orleans, Indianapolis, Atlanta, New England), a feel-good comeback story(Philadelphia) and even a reality TV star(New York).

Today, we're going to break down the teams to beat in their respective conferences, who has the best chance of knocking them off, and who are this year's dark horses, X-Factors and potential breakout stars. In the process, there will be plenty of pop culture boxing and wrestling references that will inevitably get me made fun of by Gabe.

Paper Champion(the conference favorite): New England Patriots - The Patriots have reverted back to handling business like they did in the pre-Randy Moss years, relying on chemistry and rhythm rather than loading up on the big play downfield. Go-routes have been traded in for quick slants, bubble screens and the occasional hand-off or two. New England managed to finally find an adequate running game via "The Lawfirm", BenJarvus Green-Ellis(1,008 yards rushing, 13 TDs). The effectiveness of Ellis on the ground has kept defenses from focusing on Tom Brady, which has led to Brady not turning the ball over in two months. Defensively, the Patriots' bend-but-don't-break defense is what makes this team more Piston Honda than Mr. Dream(or Mike Tyson, for those who didn't play the original Punch-Out). The team doesn't have a pass rusher with more than 5 sacks(OLB Tully Banta-Cain) and, outside of rookie CB Devin McCourtey's 7 picks, no other player has more than 3 interceptions. That's led to the Pats being near the bottom in pass defense(30th) and total yardage allowed(25th), and is the chief reason why this Patriots team may not steamroll through the playoffs like many are assuming.

The Contender(team with the best chance of knocking off the champ): Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens are the last team to intercept Brady, picking him off twice in their 23-20 OT loss to New England back on Oct. 17th. The Ravens also possess the ability to strike at New England's Achilles' heel, which is pounding the ball inside with the run game as well as be physical and aggressive enough on defense to smack Brady in the mouth. That was the formula Baltimore used to trounce the Patriots in Foxboro last year and this year's version of the Ravens now have a passing game to complement The Ray Rice Show. You could throw the Pittsburgh Steelers in the mix here, too, but only if DE Aaron Smith manages to come back from a torn triceps that kept him out most of the season(which the chances of that are slim) as well as if S Troy Polamalu can stay healthy(also no guarantee).

Little Mac Award:(team with an outside shot becoming champion): New York Jets - The Jets spent the offseason in "win now" mode, uniting every title-hungry veteran in the Meadowlands as if they were filming an NFL version of "The Expendables". Gang Green has been up and down all year, faced with its own inconsistency(the terrible second half play of QB Mark Sanchez and the disappearance of LaDainian Tomlinson down the stretch, for starters) as well as a myriad of distractions(Braylon Edwards' DUI, the filming of "Hard Knocks", the Brett Favre-Jenn Sterger fiasco, Michelle Ryan's foot fetish videos), and that has tempered some of the early season Super Bowl hype. That may work in the Jets' favor. 11-5 teams ranked in the top 5 in nearly every defensive category with a QB that's playoff seasoned and a run game that ranks among the top in the league can be a scary team to face(especially in the cold). The X-Factor for New York will be Tomlinson. Left for dead by the San Diego Chargers after years of coming oh-so-close to the Super Bowl, LT ran with a vengeance early in the season and then tapered off in the last couple of months(less than 60 yards rushing every game since mid-October). Time will tell whether it's because Rex Ryan was saving his aging lead back for the playoffs or it's a further sign of decline for the future Hall of Famer. Regardless, an L.T./Shonn Greene combination as well as Sanchez finally finding a game breaker in former Steeler WR Santonio Holmes(another guy with playoff seasoning) may give the Jets the type of balance that makes them a tough matchup these next few weeks(especially against their opening round opponent, Indianapolis, which is soft against the run). On defense, they haven't missed NT Kris Jenkins much, as the team finished the regular season third in run defense. OLBs Jason Taylor, Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas provided a fierce pass rush, with all three notching over 5 sacks a piece(Taylor leading the way with 6), although the secondary hasn't been able to take full advantage of the pressure the front seven has provided(a surprisingly low 12 team INTs).


Mickey Ward Award(player with the most to prove): Ravens QB Joe Flacco - This was supposed to be "The Year of Jersey Joe". With wide receivers Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, and Donte Stallworth added to an arsenal that already featured fellow wideout Derrick Mason and versatile RB Ray Rice, Flacco was supposed to step up into the elite ranks of signal callers. Flacco's numbers were respectable(62% completion percentage, nearly 3,700 yards passing, 25 TDs, 10 INTs) but the offensive line has failed him at times(40 sacks allowed). We all know no team can succeed in January without at least competent QB play(even though the Ravens last title came with Trent Dilfer leading them), so it goes without saying that the Ravens are screwed if Flacco isn't ready for primetime. Still, the case can be made that no QB in the AFC has as many high-profile weapons as Flacco does and, with a defense littered with stars whose championship window is closing quickly(MLB Ray Lewis, S Ed Reed), the Ravens' fate lies in the hands of their 6'6 238-pound gunslinger.


Hasim Rahman Award(guy most likely to go from nothing to something): Eric Berry, S, Chiefs - It's hard to say a rookie heralded as "the next Ed Reed" can possibly fly under the radar and become an overnight celebrity(especially after a 92-tackle, 2 sack, 1 forced fumble, 4-INT rookie campaign), but Berry has the skills to make his mark in these playoffs. Normally, breakout stars are found on the offensive side of the ball(as we saw with Pierre Garcon and Shonn Greene last year), but fantasy football has emerged to the point where any run-of-the-mill offensive playmaker can become a household name with a breakout game(which is why this spot wasn't given to Patriots TE's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez). The Chiefs are a team with no real notable wins, which is why many have written them off as "one and done" once they host Baltimore on Sunday. However, since Baltimore's defense will stifle the Chiefs' underrated offense for most of the night in Arrowhead, Kansas City's best shot at an upset will be to match the Ravens' efforts defensively. Given how important safety play has become in the NFL, that means we're looking at a potentially big game for Berry.

Pacquaio-Mayweather Award(conference's most anticipated matchup): Colts at Patriots - As much as I hate the slurpfest that these New England-Indianapolis matchups end up becoming in the pregame hype leading up to kickoff, there's no denying that Brady vs. Manning is this generation's Marino vs. Montana(or Aikman vs. Young or Marino vs. Elway, whichever you choose).

The Brady-Manning showdowns almost always live up to the hype, with this year's regular season clash being no exception. The Colts attempted to come back from a double-digit deficit but a Peyton Manning interception on the potential game-winning drive gave New England the win. With New England and Indianapolis hardly possessing lights out defenses, a potential rematch between the two will no doubt be another shootout and, while matchups against the Jets, Steelers or Ravens would be entertaining, no team is better at playing the foil to the Patriots than Manning's Colts.

TV Champion(The conference favorite): Atlanta Falcons - They trot out the NFC's most balanced attack combined with being nearly untouchable at home. If The Carolinas are "Flair Country, the A-T-L is "Matty Ice Land". Matt Ryan, in his third year, is a long playoff run away from stepping into the next tier of franchise QBs. Helping him along the way will be bruising running back Michael "The Burner" Turner and Ryan's pass-catching tag team partner Roddy White. The Falcons' balance on offense is their calling card. Their suspect defense, however, is what makes them a shaky favorite. Despite being 5th in points allowed, the are 22nd against the pass, and 16th in total yards. That's a bit troubling in a conference that will see them face pass-heavy teams like Philly, Green Bay or New Orleans. Luckily, the Falcons get to play host in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome, where the team has lost three times in head coach Mike Smith's three years and where Ryan has lost just twice as a starter. What goes against the Falcons, other than their leaky pass D, is their relative inexperience. Ryan made the playoffs a couple years ago as a rookie, but still doesn't have a playoff W. The Falcons also don't have a convincing win against a legit contender this season. Atlanta got some Charles Robinson-type poor officiating to help them beat Baltimore a couple months ago, and they edged out New Orleans by way of a shanked Garrett Hartley chip shot in OT as well as sneaking out a win against Green Bay thanks to a bad facemask penalty setting up the game-winning field goal. Of the top seeds in these playoffs, the Falcons look like the sketchiest, but that's why we play the games.


The Legend Killer(team with the best chance of knocking off the champ) : New Orleans Saints - As I said earlier, they came thisclose to sweeping Atlanta and they proved their mettle by going into the Georgia Dome two weeks ago and pulling out a W on national television. The Saints have the NFC's best coach(Sean Payton) and best QB(Drew Brees) and, perhaps the biggest factor, they've been here before. Brees is one of two QBs(Mike Vick being the other) with a playoff win to his name in the NFC and, even though rookie QBs have made big playoff runs in years past, experience goes a long way in the playoffs, especially during crunch time. Defensively, unlike their NFC South rival, the Saints are stout against the pass(but not so much against the run) and they have the easiest of the four Wild Card matchups by drawing a putrid Seahawks team that they crushed in Week 11(34-19 in New Orleans). What will hurt the Saints the most is their lack of a run game. RBs Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas are done for the postseason, meaning the weight now falls squarely on former poster child Reggie Bush to provide some production on the ground. Bush's biggest plays of his pro career have come in the postseason(his electrifying run against Chicago a few years ago and last year's dominance of the Cardinals). If Bush can be even somewhat close to USC Reggie Bush, the Saints are the team to beat in the NFC...hands down.

The Third Man(team with an outside shot of making a surprise run): Green Bay Packers - Call me a homer, but history tends to reflect positively on teams that rank in the top 10 on both sides of the ball. Green Bay possesses the 2nd best overall defense(statistically, at least) and the 10th best scoring offense. They are 5th in total yards allowed and pass defense, 9th in total yards, and 5th in passing. Obviously, what holds Green Bay back is both the lack of a run game and their occasional struggles with stopping the run. Since Ryan Grant went down in Week 1, the team has tried everything short of resuscitating Edgar Bennett to get something going on the ground. Brandon Jackson, the man who was initially drafted to be the Packers' lead back, finished with a little over 700 yards rushing and even his relatively decent games have been few and far between. The Packers' offense still lives and dies through Aaron Rodgers, who put up yet another stellar season(65.7% completion percentage, 3,922 yards passing, 28 TDs and 11 INTs) even despite falling victim to two concussions. The key is keeping Rodgers' upright. The Packers' offensive line, the team's biggest weakness at this point last year, cut down its sacks allowed from 51 last year to 38 this year but still aren't exactly a brick wall when it comes to defending a pass rush. If Rodgers gets time to throw, though, look out. Very few teams in the NFC(or even the NFL) can match offenses with the Packers, especially with the way the defense has played of late. Led by a reigning Defensive Player of the Year(CB Charles Woodson) and the frontrunner for this year's DPOY award(LB Clay Matthews), the Packers have put opposing offenses on lockdown. The road to Dallas will be rough, however. Although they beat Philadelphia at The Linc in Week 1, the win came when the Packers were much healthier than they are now and with Mike Vick on the bench for the first half. If they can somehow repeat their opening week performance, they will then have to go into Atlanta where they lost a close one to the Falcons a couple months ago. If they can survive that, they'll either travel to Chicago for a third showdown with the Bears(who they lost to at Soldier Field earlier in the season) or to NOLA to face the defending champs. The Packers eeked into the playoffs, despite a multitude of key injuries, but if they can stay away from dumb penalties and find a way to pull out wins in close games(two HUGE ifs), this team will be right where many had them in the preseason: The Super Bowl. (Side Note: For those who don't get the "Third Man" reference, take a look at this. P.S. When it comes to announcing, Tony Schiavone makes Jon Gruden look like Vin Scully.)

Most In Need To Get "Over"(Player with the most to prove): Michael Vick, QB, Eagles - As great as this storybook season has been for Mike Vick(62.8% completion, 3,018 yards passing, 676 yards rushing, 30 total TDs, 6 INTs) the best chapter has yet to be written. Vick needs a postseason that mirrors the first half of his regular season to end one of the greatest comebacks in this sport's history. Vick went from the league's most notorious heel to its biggest babyface after coming off the bench for the injured Kevin Kolb and finally realizing the potential that made him a #1 pick in 2001. Finally able to dominate with both his arm and his legs, Vick has morphed into the league's most electrifying player. Still, in the past couple of weeks, Vick's old form has reared its ugly head. For a guy who is often the fastest man on the field, he still takes far too many sacks and his scrambling ability makes him prone to big hits that his smallish frame can't continue to withstand. If the Eagles are going to be serious Super Bowl contenders, everything rides on Number Seven's ability to continue to extend plays with his feet while remaining accurate with his passes. The combination of Vick's versatility and the incendiary speed of playmakers like DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy make the Eagles like a more modern "Greatest Show On Turf", and with Vick's contract up at the year, a lot rides on him closing the show much like he started it.

From Jobber To Superstar(guy most likely to go from nothing to something): Mike Williams, WR, Seattle - Lost in all the glitz of the soon-to-be-a-Hollywood-blockbuster-with-Terrence-Howard-playing-the-lead-role comeback story of Mike Vick is the triumphant return of another Mike: former Lions first round bust Mike Williams. Sure, Williams didn't even have the best season of guys sharing the same name(Tampa's Mike Williams had a better year on a far better team that is far more deserving of a playoff spot than these Seahawks), but he's arguably the best player on the worst team in these playoffs and since we're hours away from forgetting anything sports-related the city of Seattle will have to offer between now and baseball season, we might as well give the Seahawks some face time. As good as the Saints are against the pass, it's tough to really account for a receiver built like BMW("Big" Mike Williams, for you slow-witted folk). Williams runs 6'5, 235 pounds, with hands like magnets and the speed of a minivan. He's pretty much a glorified tight end, but he's going to be Matt Hasselbeck's most reliable target and there's going to be at least a play or two tomorrow where you sit up and say "Oh shit! Who the hell is that!?". The Seahawks' only hope of pulling off a 123 Kid/Razor Ramon-type upset will be if Williams can move the chains and get the loudest crowd in the NFL motivated enough to at least somewhat intimidate the defending champs. I can see BMW reeling in five or six catches and a score as the Seahawks make things interesting on the first drive.....and then proceed to get annihilated for the next 3 1/2 quarters. At least now you can say you know who Mike Williams is before you bother use Wikipedia during the commercial break.


Steamboat vs Flair Award(most anticipated matchup) Eagles at Falcons - Eventhough the NFC plays the inferior ugly stepsister to the AFC, there are some good potential matchups on the horizon. Packers-Saints would be exciting, as would Saints-Eagles and maybe even Falcons-Bears. However, in continuing with the "Comeback Story of Mike Vick" theme, this postseason can really only shape up one way: With Mike Vick trying to lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl by going into the place that he once packed to the rafters and taking on his successor. Mike Vick vs. the team that threw him away IN Georgia. You can't script it better than that. The place will be filled with deafening mixed emotions, with some glad to see Mike Vick back while others unwilling to forgive him for why he left. On top of that, it pits two of the most exciting offenses in the league against each other, on the Georgia Dome carpet, for a chance at representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. As much as it goes against every fiber in my being to root against my Packers, the only way I can digest a Eagles win this weekend would be if it led to Vick inevitably stepping foot into the place he once called home, staring out into the crowd he once flipped off "Stone Cold" Steve Austin-style, and putting on a show similar to his Madden-like performance against the Redskins on Monday night.

Pay-Per-View Headliners(the five, er, six best potential Super Bowl matchups):



Honorable Mention: Seahawks-Jets - Barring some kind of Disney-scripted fairy tale postseason run, this has absolutely NO SHOT at happening. However, if Seattle can pull off a Cinderella run, we get Mark Sanchez against the college coach that chastised Sanchez's decision to declare early. We get a week's worth of Rex Ryan soundbites, a chance to see LaDainian Tomlinson in the Super Bowl, the first ever Super Bowl matchup featuring a team that finished the regular season with a losing record. There's also Seattle getting its revenge after the referees screwed them over in 2005(Sorry, Steeler fans!), as well as the biggest sports market in the country going ape shit for two straight weeks(and maybe even more if Carmelo Anthony goes to the Knicks or Nets somewhere in that timeframe). Sanchez gets to do his best Ben Roethlisberger impression and go from AFC Championship in his rookie year and Super Bowl in his second(and maybe even a sexual assault in his postgame), and Darrelle Revis gets to babysit Antonio Cromartie's 8 kids while trying to find something to keep him entertained during his defense of Mike Williams. How can you not root for this? Oh, because of the potential words "Super Bowl winning QB Charlie Whitehurst", huh?

5. Jets-Falcons: Obviously, all the Jets' reasons from the last paragraph are in play here as well. The media circus behind this Jets team would be phenomonal, and you know we'll get at least two or three good Rex Ryan quotes during the interviews leading up to the big game. LaDainian Tomlinson gets to return home to Texas, much like Jerome Bettis did in Detroit in '05, and possibly end his career with a ring(though I don't think this is the end for LT). A couple storybook endings for Jason Taylor and Tony Gonzalez, two of the best people the sports world has seen in this generation. You get a battle between two up-and-coming QBs in Mark Sanchez and Matt Ryan, and the potential for Ryan to build on his "Matty Ice" legacy with a 4th quarter drive. There's Jets team officials trying to both keep Braylon Edwards off the bottle and Antonio Cromartie from knocking up any Dallas cheerleaders. A "student vs. teacher" plotline with Michael Turner against L.T, the inevitable deflection of questions about the Jets' sexual harrassment lawsuit as well as Michelle Ryan questions, Telemundo getting excited about possibly the first Latin Super Bowl-winning QB, "Rowdy" Roddy White vs. Revis Island, and of course, Rex Ryan soundbites(Yup, so good, it had to be mentioned twice!).

4. Steelers-Eagles: Only for the sole purpose that, when this one is over, the man hoisting the Lombardi Trophy will either be a man twice accused of sexual assault who will be winning his third ring in seven years or a man who spent nearly two years in prison for bankrolling a dogfighting ring. Maybe it's not "exciting" from a football standpoint, although both offenses are good enough to keep it from being a snoozefest, but from a storyline standpoint alone, it's a matchup that will make Roger Goodell sweat and reporters salivate on Media Day.

3. Ravens-Falcons: It's the age-old showdown of a great defense against a great offense. It's a matchup between the two marquee QBs of the 2008 NFL Draft, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. It's the potential last hurrah for two sure-fire Hall of Famers(Ray Lewis and Tony Gonzalez) and another possible Canton resident(Ed Reed), and maybe even a last goodbye for Derrick Mason. It's a rematch of perhaps the only entertaining Thursday night game all season and a game that ended with some very suspect officiating at the end. It's a chance for John Harbaugh to steal a little of the spotlight from his San Fran-bound brother, and it's a chance for two cities(one that had its team stolen from them in the middle of the night, the other a team that lost the biggest star the team has ever had to dogfighting) to finally stand on top of the world.

2. Packers-Patriots: A rematch of the two's hotly-contested battle a few weeks ago, this time with Aaron Rodgers(hopefully) filling in for Matt Flynn(it's also a rematch of the '96 Super Bowl, the last one the Packers won, but that may be too dated to matter that much). It's a showdown between two of the league's best QBs and a shot to finally step out of the shadow of Brett Favre for Rodgers. It's arguably the league's smartest coach and most meticulous gameplanner against argaubly one of the game's dumbest coaches and worst crunchtime coaches. It will be a nice cherry on top of a battered sundae for the Packers or yet another notch on the belt of the great Tom Brady.

1. Saints-Patriots: Brees! Brady! That should pretty much say it all. Incase it doesn't, how about this: Reggie Bush doing his best Desmond Howard impression, reporters trying to get a halfway decent quote from Bill Belichick and Sean Payton, endless jokes about Brady's hair, Brees replacing Peyton Manning as Brady's biggest competition for immortality, Brees also getting a shot to play "Legend Killer" for another great QB in back-to-back years, another reason for a huge New Orleans party, Mark Wahlberg vs. Harry Connick Jr., one more week of yelling "Lawfirm!" at BenJarvus Green-Ellis, one more week of yelling "Ray J's Sloppy Seconds!" at Reggie Bush......oh, and it's Brady vs. Brees....and it really doesn't get much better than that.

The Pick: Patriots over Saints - I had Ravens over Packers in the preseason and, as much as I would like to stick to my guns here, both of those teams commit way too many dumb penalties and have too many glaring weaknesses to be relied upon. I do think the Ravens have the best shot at beating New England, but it's hard to bet against this Pats team right now. As for New Orleans, the only team with a legitmate shot at beating them in the NFC is Philly and there's a puncher's chance that the Eagles don't make it out of the first round. I have no faith in Atlanta....not enough convincing wins against tough opponents, not enough experience in the playoffs and, certianly, not enough defense. As good as Matt Ryan has been, he's not winning a shootout with Drew Brees in the playoffs. I like New England over New Orleans because the Patriots can run the ball better and Brady is less likely to make big mistakes than Brees is. As much as I'd like to see the Jets and my Packers here, I think we're looking at another parade in Beantown and another spring of annoying Pats bandwagon fans going nuts. Sorry, America.

NFC South Preview

Our look at the NFC South.....

DAVE:

1. New Orleans Saints: I know the NFC South hasn't had a repeat division winner in quite some time. I know that the team that has finished last has ended up winning the division the next year the last few years. I know this. That being said, these are the defending Super Bowl champs. They are led by the best QB in the game and perhaps even the league's best coach. Also, there's really nobody else in this division that even garners enough sleeper buzz to make me waver here(You can keep your Falcons as a dark horse hype. I'll pass). Drew Brees, year after year, continues to orchestrate this offense like a maestro. No matter how meak the running game. No matter how unknown the receivers. Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Lance Moore aren't sexy names like Baltimore's new trio or the guys out in Dallas, but they fit the scheme well and they have great chemistry with Brees and that's all that matters. As for the running game, Pierre Thomas is adequate in a Antione Smith/Charlie Garner/Michael Pittman kind of way. He isn't a gamebreaker but he can move the chains if you underestimate him. Reggie Bush, meanwhile, is SUPPOSED to be a gamebreaker. He showed flashes in the playoffs, but the Saints can't claim that this is what they expected from the man heralded as "The Next Gale Sayers". This has to be the year Bush drops jaws like he did during his career at USC. Last year's Super Bowl win was nice, but if Bush proves to be dangerous, he adds an element to this offense that makes them even more powerful.

The defense should be better in Year 2 under Gregg Williams. There aren't many big time stars in this front seven, but that's not going to stop Williams from unleashing blitz after blitz. DT Sedrick Ellis has been banged up quite a bit in his short career but he can be a force inside when he's healthy. The same can be said for former Bear DE Alex Brown and fellow DE Will Smith. Both are solid pass-rushers who have to avoid the injury bug. LB Jon Vilma is a tackling machine and this new scheme allows him to fly all over the field like a heat-seeking missle. The secondary is still a question mark, even with the breakout postseason by CB Tracy Porter. Porter proved to be a playmaker in the Super Bowl and NFC Championship, but we've seen guys have big moments in the postseason and then fall flat on their face. Remember Larry Brown? Remember Dwight Smith? Porter's a solid corner. He's not Darrelle Revis. Free safety Darren Sharper IS a big-time playmaker, but he's also injured and it looks like he'll miss at least the first six games with a knee injury. Last year's first rounder Malcolm Jenkins got roasted in his rookie season and he's going to have to make HUGE strides to keep this pass defense from getting exposed(especially in the season opener against Brett Favre and the Vikings).

Long story short, the Saints are still the class of this division. It will be interesting to see if Brees avoids the Madden Curse, but this team should still be a threat to win 10-11 games. However, Jenkins and Bush are the X-factors for this team. Jenkins holds the key to the secondary in Sharper's absence. The Saints stayed afloat last year because of Sharper's instincts and experience. That's missing for the immediate future. As for Bush, he's not the lead back but he's the guy defenses will key on. He'll have to prove to be more than a dangerous punt returner in the final year of his rookie contract. The production of those two and the health of Brees are the keys to New Orleans' chances of repeating. They can survive the division if the defense remains adequate and Brees continues to flourish, but they are going to need more lucky bounces(like last year) to make a run back to the Super Bowl. Personally, I think they'll settle on taking the division.

2. Atlanta Falcons: For some reason, be it experts trying to be edgy by rallying around a team nobody else is checking for or what have you, there's a lot of buzz surrounding these Atlanta Falcons. Don't get me wrong. The Falcons are promising. Matt Ryan is proving to be a better QB than I initially gave him credit for, Roddy White has become an elite receiver and Micheal Turner is a bulldozer when healthy. Still, upon further review, it's hard to get TOO excited about the Dirty Birds. Ryan's been solid in his first two years but he also has the tendency to connect passes to guys in the different colored shirts(25 picks in 2 years....not terrible, but a bit of a concern). Turner rushed for under 1,000 yards last year, mainly as a side effect to his big 2008 and still getting adjusted to being the every-down back after being a caddy in San Diego. White has put up consistent numbers over the last few years, but who is there behind him at wideout? Micheal Jenkins has been hit-or-miss since the Falcons used a first-round pick on him years ago. TE Tony Gonzalez is still a red zone maven and one of the game's best tight ends, but you wonder when Father Time will catch up to him as well.

Defensively, the Falcons may have the most underrated LB trio in the NFL. Curtis Lofton is the best MLB you aren't talking about, OLB Mike Peterson can make plays and there's a lot of hope around first round pick Sean Weatherspoon. On the defensive line, former top 10 pick Jamaal Anderson has to shake the cobwebs off and become a star. He has 2.5 sacks in four years and currently sits behind Kroy Biermann as the starter opposite John Abraham. Abraham is a QB's nightmare, but he's almost never healthy. He has great speed and is very much a poor man's Dwight Freeney.....when he's on the field. Speaking on injuries, former 1st rounder Peria Jerry will make his NFL debut after missing all of last season with a knee injury. Jerry can clog the middle inside but it's still questionable how his knee will hold up and how effective he can be having never actually played a meaningful NFL game. The Falcons secondary got a boost when it signed Dunta Robinson away from Houston. Robinson(much like the rest of the Falcons D) is solid-yet-oft-injured. He can be a shutdown corner but he's prone to knicks and bumps. S Erik Coleman makes plays and his 116 tackles last year proves he can make stops all over the field. He and Robinson will have to because the rest of the Falcons' secondary is a bit suspect.

The Falcons have a lot of potential, on paper, but season after season, we see a lot of sexy picks become more unattractive as warts get discovered. Before I can co-sign Atlanta as a potential elite team, I'd have to see them play like one. That means a bounce back year from Turner, some better decision making from Ryan and an emergence from some of the young guys on this defense. Otherwise, this is just another team causing a frenzy for no reason.

3. Carolina Panthers: Is Matt Moore the real deal? That's the question surrounding the fate of the Panthers' season. To many, Moore is the seat warmer for eventual franchise QB Jimmy Clausen, but Moore's 26, he was 4-1 as a starter and threw six touchdowns to two picks last season. We've seen this before. Teams draft a high-profile kid out of college as their QB of the future before taking a look at the incumbent and the "heir apparent" ends up riding the bench longer than expected(Best example: San Diego with Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers). I'm not saying Moore's a Pro Bowler, but he certainly has the weapons to, at the very least, not suck. It starts with his massive offensive line, and Carolina's two big-time tackles Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah(although Otah is a bit slowed by a knee injury). Those two will be keeping Moore upright long enough for him to launch bombs to one of the game's most dangerous receivers, Steve Smith. Smith had nearly 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns, three of which coming with Moore at the helm. Helping Moore's cause(and Smith's cause, as well) will be the Panthers' own version of "Thunder" and "Lightning" in bruising back Jonathan Stewart and jitterbug DeAngelo Williams. Both backs eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark last year, with Williams scoring seven touchdowns and "The Daily Show" chipping in ten scores. Their production lightens the load on Moore in his first full season as starter. The only real question is who will be lining up opposite Smith? The team drafted Brandon LaFell out of LSU and, right now, he has the edge over former USC bust Dwayne Jarrett. The Panthers also added Armanti Edwards, who is someone to also keep an eye on this season.

The Panthers defense has a bit more uncertainty than their run-oriented O. In case you missed it, Pro Bowl DE Julius Peppers left for greener pastures in Chicago. His spot will be manned now by former Raider Tyler Brayton. Brayton has played well in the preseason, doing a good job of pressuring QBs, but he isn't the playmaker that Peppers was. Inside, the team is still looking for someone to produce on the interior ever since Kris Jenkins left. DTs Ed Johnson and Louis Leonard are subpar at best. Luckily, the Panthers have some good linebackers behind them. "The Beast" Jon Beason is moving from his comfy middle linebacker spot to man the outside and make room for another promising young tackler, Dan Conner. The secondary has a decent pair of corners in Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall. Marshall proved he could lay the lumber last season, racking up 88 tackles, while both men had four interceptions. Safety Charles Godfrey got a lot of buzz in the draft a couple years ago and, now in his third season, he has prove he's the playmaker the Panthers thought he would be.

So, the Panthers may very well be in good hands with Moore behind center. Unlike most young, inexperienced QBs, Moore steps in with a stout offensive line, a reliable running game and a fine playmaker at wideout. The question becomes, with head coach John Fox on the hot seat, will Moore feel Clausen constantly breathing down his neck if things go awry. Defensively, somebody has to step up to replace Peppers and the interior of that defensive line has to hold up and take some pressure off Beason and Conner to constantly make plays. The Panthers have the Super Bowl champs and a sexy sleeper in Atlanta in their division, but if a couple things bounce their way, their potential plus Fox's desperation could translate into a surprisingly good year for Carolina.

4. Tampa Bay Bucs: This is going to be an ugly year for Tampa Bay. Head coach Raheem Morris proved to be in over his head in his first year as coach last season and I'd be surprised if he isn't the first coach canned this season. QB Josh Freeman is promising and definitely has the tools to be good, but he's a year or two away, mainly because his receivers need to develop. The Bucs used draft picks on Syracuse WR Mike Williams and Illinois' Arrellious Benn. Williams has been the story of preseason for Tampa, and surprisingly beat out Benn for a starting spot. Benn, meanwhile, will be waiting behind former Eagle Reggie Brown. Brown flunked as a #1 in Philly, so it's hard to feel confident about his chances of being the man in Tampa Bay. The running game is equally dreadful. RB Cadillac Williams is now the unquestioned starter after the team bid adieu to free agent bust Derrick Ward and after moving former starter Earnest Graham to fullback. However, Williams hasn't been healthy in ages and he may actually beat out Morris as the first Buc on the shelf. Behind Caddy is unknown Kareem Huggins.....who? Yeah, exactly. On the bright side, the team has Kellen Winslow at tight end......and he's a soldier. Just ask him.

Defensively, the Bucs are big on potential and inexperience. Tampa Bay drafted Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy with the 3rd overall pick and then found him a tag team partner in 2nd rounder Brian Price. Price led the Pac-10 in sacks while at UCLA and many believed McCoy was on par if not better than Heisman candidate and 2nd overall pick Ndomukong Suh. Those two will need to produce immediately because there isn't much proven talent on the rest of the line. The DE formerly known as DeWayne White(now Stylez White) has fallen out of favor with the coaching staff but, with nobody even decent enough to replace him, White's spot remains in tact for now. The linebacking core has a couple solid prospects in former Seminole Geno Hayes and tackling machine Barrett Ruud. In the secondary, Ronde Barber returns for his 300th season as Tampa Bay's elder statesman and as the only tolerable Barber brother. He'll be shepherding a young secondary featuring guys like safety Tanard Jackson and corner Myron Lewis.

The Bucs have a ton of young talent but, in order to keep Morris off the unemployment line, they(especially Freeman) are going to have to make big strides in Year 2 of the Raheem Regime. At this point, expecting Cadillac to make it thru even half a season is a stretch and the hope is that Huggins can pick up some of the slack. Benn and Williams will have to emerge or show flashes as rookies since it's clear Brown is nothing more than a stop gap. On defense, McCoy and Price have to live up to their college press clippings and if another corner can step up to eventually replace Ronde, it will put Tampa in a better position going forward. Still, this is a tough division and this is a very young team with a very young coach who made far too many mistakes as the head man last year(firing both coordinators before season's end tops the list of Morris mistakes). So, expect a handful of wins, Morris to be unemployed and a couple of "ooohs" and "aaahs" from the youngsters.....but don't expect much else.

Gabe:

I hate to keep sounding like Dave but here goes....

1. New Orleans Saints - As Dave said, this division hasn't had a repeat winner since Jesus was captain, but that is going to change this year. Last year the Saints won the Super Bowl. This year they have basically the same team. All of their receivers are back and really, Marques Colston is the 1, but after that each guy, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachum, and Lance Moore, is a threat to have a huge game. Any of their receivers can take almost any pass the distance. Their running game has a weak reputation, but they are good. They use the backs in the passing game frequently and when healthy Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush are a good inside/outside combo.

Dave is right about their defense. The front seven aren't flashy, but they are good. They play well as a team and blitz like crazy. Williams is a great DC. The secondary does need to improve, but with another year under Williams' system they should do that. Either way, if they do get exposed and another team puts up some points, is there any team better equipped on offense to respond than the Saints? I'll take New Orleans in a shoot out against anyone.

2. Atlanta Fighting Matty Ices - I like Atlanta's offense, I don't love it. Matt Ryan busted out his rookie year and has made strides since. He has a decent top receiver in Roddy White, a still great tight end in future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez, and a workhorse back in Michael Turner. It is essential that Turner stay healthy for the Falcons to progress. Two years ago he touched the ball about 2,600 times (true statistic....OK, not true), and suffered last year because of it.

The Falcons defense is unheralded. I like their front seven. I think signing Dunta Robinson is going to be huge for them. Robinson was always good, and sometimes great, in Houston. I think he will give this defense a huge lift.

3. Carolina Panthers - The Panthers have a huge running game. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan "The Daily Show" Stewart are both outstanding. Top receiver Steve Smith and quarterback Matt Moore have a great chemistry. The popular sentiment is that Moore is just keeping the seat warm for rookie Jimmy Clausen, but I don't think that's true. I think Moore can play well enough to keep Clausen on the sidelines with a headset on, for at least a year. The defensive line is going to struggle. Julius Peppers will be sorely missed. As Dave said the linebackers and secondary are a decent group. I think they will have too much on their hands trying to handle the Falcons and Saints though.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Here is the story with Tampa Bay. They are young. They have a young coach. They have a young quarterback. They are inexperienced. This year they drafted McCoy and Been who have tons of potential. I think the Bucs are a year or two away from being contenders. Unfortunately Raheem Morris might not have that kind of time.

Who Dat Signing L.T.?

Now that aging running back LaDainian Tomlinson's tenure in San Diego is being referred in the past tense instead of present tense, we can now all focus on where L.T. will glide his once-nimble feet and don the trademark tinted visor. With solid running back rookie classes the last couple years, there are fewer openings for a soon-to-be 31-year old running back with a backwash-sized amount of juice left in his legs than there might have been in years past.

That's why, if Tomlinson has even the slightest bit of life in his cerebral cortex, he will dot the L and cross the T on a contract to sign with the New Orleans Saints. When it comes down to it, the only teams that can offer the two things L.T. would require upon agreeing to come aboard(significant playing time and a shot at a Super Bowl) are Philadelphia and New Orleans. The Eagles just bid adieu to longtime back Brian Westbrook. On top of that, the team is at least considering moving quarterback mainstay Donovan McNabb. That shows you that the Eagles are going towards a youth movement(with Westbrook being replaced by last year's rookie steal LeSean McCoy and McNabb succeeded by Kevin Kolb). Even if the Eagles keep McNabb, Andy Reid isn't exactly committed to the running game. Plus, why would L.T. sign on to play in a harsh city like Philly(where the fans are assholes....Yeah, I said it) when the team could very well ship out two of its best offensive weapons? Another underlying factor against a Eagles-Tomlinson partnership? The weather. Tomlinson was born and raised in smoldering hot Texas. He played nine years of pro ball in sunny San Diego. You think he's spending the twilight of his career having his bones ache in the biting cold of Philadelphia? I didn't think so either.

So why the champs? Well, there's the simple answers: They're the defending champs and they happen to have L.T.'s former teammate/BFF Drew Brees. Now, Brees came out on Twitter after Tomlinson's release and felt the crowd out on the possibility of a Brees-Tomlinson NOLA reunion before going the diplomatic route of bigging up his own stable of backs(even going as far as saying that the foursome of Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Lynell Hamilton and Mike Bell might be the best stable of backs in the NFL....which, to put it mildly, is a bit far-fetched). That being said, Bush is in the last year of his rookie contract, Bell wasn't retained and the Saints haven't exactly rushed to sign Thomas long-term just yet. Also, keep in mind that the Saints flirted with the idea of drafting Ohio St. RB Beanie Wells last April(before settling on Wells' teammate, CB Malcom Jenkins) and could be in the market for another one of L.T.'s old 'mates: CB Antonio Cromartie(who has been made available in exchange for a starter-quality RB). Could the Saints strike a deal with L.T. and then fill another hole by dangling Thomas or Bush in exchange for Cromartie? Wouldn't exactly be the worst of moves. Plus, as much as Brees believes in his backfield boys, the fact remains that the leading rusher for New Orleans was Thomas with a measly 793 yards(although, in fairness, that was still 63 yards better than L.T., but I digress). Brees might believe that his team can defend the title with a no-name run game. The Patriots believed that to at the beginning of the millennium, after winning a couple Super Bowls with guys like Antowain Smith and Kevin Faulk. Inevitably, they realized that going with an ordinary back wasn't going to work in the long run and swung a deal for Corey Dillon. The same is true for New Orleans. Pierre Thomas put on a nice show in the Super Bowl, and yeah, maybe he can be a decent back in the NFL, but can you have a dynasty with Pierre Thomas as your starting RB? I don't think so. If the Saints can talk San Diego into a Thomas-for-Cromartie deal, then give a Bush-Tomlinson combination one year to fix their rushing woes, what do they lose in the long run? What are the chances of Thomas being a 1,400 yard rusher in San Diego? 20%? If the Bush-LT tandem doesn't work, you could let both loose next season and go back to the drawing board with a new young back. Running back has proven to be one of the most replaceable positions in the NFL. The Jets went from Curtis Martin to Thomas Jones to Shonn Greene effortlessly. Same for Kansas City going from Priest Holmes to Larry Johnson to Jamaal Charles. Pierre Thomas might be a decent young back, but irreplaceable he is not.

Now, what does a rapidly declining L.T. bring to the champs? Well, that's the wild card. In the NFL's history, we've seen teams leave aging RBs for dead on the open market, only for said aging RB to re-up elsewhere and find the fountain of youth. Remember Stephen Davis? Considered washed up by Washington and eventually signs with Carolina upon his release from the Redskins and teams with DeShaun Foster to carry the Panthers to the Super Bowl. There's Emmitt Smith, who wasn't quite ready to hang 'em up after breaking Walter Payton's record with the Cowboys and went on to two mildly productive seasons in Arizona. There's also Brett Favre. While not a running back, Favre did come back last season, with his prime years far behind him, to lead the Vikings to the NFC Championship.

Of course, there's the flip side to signing an RB on the decline. There's Eddie George's tenure with Cowboys, after being cut from Tennessee. Before that, there was Tony Dorsett's beleaguered run with Denver after a long career with Dallas. Most recently, there was former MVP Shaun Alexander struggling to even convert 3rd-and-1s with Washington after record-breaking seasons in Seattle.

Look, am I saying L.T. will go back to being a 1,500 yard back if he signs with New Orleans? Of course not. Could I see him putting up 1,200 total yards with double digit touchdowns under Sean Payton's tutelage and with Bush giving him the occasional breather? Sure. The key factor for Tomlinson will be motivation. Does he want to tune out the cries of an aging and aching body and chase immortality one last time with his old buddy Brees or would he be content leaving the game, hat in hand, and in one piece?

If it's the former for L.T., the only logical move would be for him to break out some beads and go gliding down Bourbon Street as a member of the New Orleans Saints.

Far From Super Bowl

It was supposed to be a shootout between two of the game's premier quarterbacks. It was supposed to be Montana vs. Marino: The Sequel.

It wasn't.

While Peyton Manning(31-45, 333 yards, TD, INT) and Drew Brees(SB record tying 32 completions on 39 attempts, 288 yards and 2 TDs on route to winning the SB MVP) put on a great show statistically, the game lacked the suspenseful back-and-forth of last year's championship game. Even as Manning thundered down the field trying to make up two scores in under four minutes, the actions dragged more than "The Departed". Truth be told, the most exciting play of the entire game came on Tracy Porter's Pick 6 in the fourth quarter that essentially put the game away.

And the halftime show? Jeez. Look, we know that The Who wasn't going to find a new audience by performing vinyl classics to an iPod generation, but they somehow managed to look more dated than Phil Simms' hairdo. To be fair, I was raised in the city in New Jersey, where The Who isn't quite as popular as, say, The Wu-Tang Clan, but if The Who's goal tonight was to attempt to remain relevant to the nation's youth, then they failed miserably. This is the risk you take when you try to play it safe. Since Nipple-Gate, we've seen The Rolling Stones, Prince, Bruce Springsteen and now The Who. Somebody get Fox the number to Kansas' agent! How about we see if Boston is available next year? What about Bon Jovi or maybe even some Foghat? Would a Jay-Z/Beyonce duet have been THAT bad? We really couldn't let the young people have their Taylor Swift? Fuck, put the Jonas Brothers up there if you want to be safe(On second thought, DON'T. I plead with you. Don't do it.).

Then, there's the legendary Super Bowl commercials. Who would have thought that there would be more Danica Patrick sightings during the Super Bowl than Kim Kardashian? Practically all of the million dollar ads shown tonight were largely forgettable with the exception of the trailers for Ridley Scott's "Robin Hood" remake and the other "Avatar" movie, "The Last Airbender". The Doritos people had a bigger impact during the second half than Dallas Clark did, but I couldn't possibly tell you about one of their commercials. It was another lackluster performance on a night of lackluster performances.

Where was the star power? Sure, Manning and Brees showed up and Saints RB Pierre Thomas made his case to make Reggie Bush expendable, but where was Reggie Wayne? Where was Jeremy Shockey? It's a shame when the ex-Hurricanes with the biggest impact during Super Bowl weekend were Warren Sapp and Michael Irvin. Speaking of shames, it's a damn shame that the only Colt defender who came to play tonight was an undersized defensive end playing with torn ankle ligaments. Dwight Freeney's bum wheel was the biggest hot button topic leading up to tonight's game(which should have been a red flag that this was a suckfest from the get-go. Showdown between the two best QB's in the game and our top Super Bowl stories were a defensive end's ankle and a five-year old hurricane?). If you watched the Colts D against the Jets and the Saints D against the Vikings, there is no way you would have came into this game thinking that Indy's defense would be the ones getting picked apart like Clinton Portis at a chicken wing eating contest. Sure, Manning went for over 300 yards and even as things looked grim after the Porter house call, you still never counted the Colts out. However, the Saints D made plays when it mattered. It shut down Reggie Wayne, even as top corner Jabari Greer was hobbled. Manning had to make near-perfect throws to get Dallas Clark involved. The Saints defense made the rookie receivers(Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie) beat them and the rooks came up just short.

As disappointing as tonight was from an action standpoint, the Saints deserve their props. As annoying as the "This one's for the city" cliche postgame interview quotes will be and all the excessive celebrating on Bourbon Street that will eventually lead to drunken riots that Fox News will no doubt blame on rap music and Obama, it really is nice to see a good guy like Brees get his day in the sun.

At least somebody has a reason to be excited about what transpired tonight.

Super Bowl Picks

The most bittersweet day of the year for football fans is here. The excitement for the biggest game of the year is tempered by the fact that there is no more NFL football after tonight, until August.

So let's get right to it.

New Orleans (+5) at Indianapolis
Over/Under - 56.5

Gabe: I have gone back and forth on this pick for two weeks. At first I thought Colts all the way. Peyton Manning is the best in the league at diagnosing defenses on the fly and countering. Also, he has two weeks to prepare for a New Orleans defense that is ranked in the mid-20's in the NFL. He has already dismantled the no. 1 and no. 3 defenses in the playoffs on the way to the Super Bowl.

BUT........

The Saints have all of the motivation in the world to win this game. On top of Katrina and helping rebuild their city and everything that comes with that, all they have heard for two weeks is how Peyton Manning is going to do his thing and smoke them. They have had to hear that they are a nice story but just won't get it done on the field. Well, when the Colts defense takes the field in this playoff game, it won't be journeyman Joe Flacco or rookie Mark Sanchez under center, it will be Drew "Motha' Fuckin'" Brees. The Saints aren't going to try to keep this game in the high teens or low twenties, scoring-wise. They are going to come out and want to run with the Colts, and if there is any team in the league that can run with the Colts, it's the Saints. The Saints offense is going to be able to match the Colts and I think the Saints defense will pressure Manning and his receivers. When the Colts receivers catch the ball they better wrap it up, because the Saints defenders will be looking for the strip, constantly, and it only takes one lost fumble after a fifty yard gain to change the momentum of a game.

Here's my prediction in a nutshell...I think the Saints, led by Drew Breeeeees!, get the outright win, with a field goal at the end of the game or in overtime, by a score of 31-28. So my official pick is the Saints (+5) and the over.

Dave: Colts(Under) - The Saints offense, while still potent, hasn't been the fast break, explosive, '99 Rams reincarnation that they looked like early in the season. That could be attributed to the fact the running game never took off to make the defenses lay off the Brees' air attack.

Plus, and this may get me in some trouble, I'm quite frankly annoyed by all of these out-of-towners suddenly jumping on the Katrina bandwagon. Hurricane Katrina was 5 years ago. If you were going to use Katrina as a reason to support the Saints(or New Orleans, in general), 2005 would have been a nice start. This sudden idea that the Saints are America's Team because they bounced back from a national tragedy to make the Super Bowl(Nevermind the fact that they were in the NFC Championship in '05. But hey, I guess if you've only been a Saints fan for three weeks, you don't remember that) is downright ridiculous. Plus, while thousands losing their lives in New Orleans is terrible and we all have a sentimental reason to back the city of New Orleans, keep in mind that this city also brought us Lil Wayne(without question, the most overrated rapper in the genre's history) and Harry Connick Jr.(I really don't have a reasoning beyond the fact that he's Harry Connick Jr and he once did a guest spot on "Friends", which is only the worst show to ever come across TV sets EVER....and that includes "The Mike O'Malley Show" and "Homeboys In Outer Space"). So if there's a reason why I'm turning my nose up at the Saints, it's because I've spent the last two weeks watching rich white women yell "Go Saints!" when they couldn't tell the difference between Drew Brees and Drew Carey.

Now, as for the Colts, they are a well-oiled machine. They've also been here before. You don't have to worry about coach Jim Caldwell getting the big game jitters because a. he has about as much emotion as Joe Buck and b. The Caldwell/Manning combo is like the Uncle Junior/Tony Soprano combo in "The Sopranos"(which IS the greatest show to ever come across TV sets....and I'm including "The Wire" and "Jersey Shore"). In other words, one man holds the title of being the boss(Caldwell playing the Uncle Junior role), while everyone knows the young prodigy is really running things(Peyton being Tony Soprano). Manning's the closest thing to a player-coach in the NFL, which is great because Caldwell's expression on the sidelines makes me wonder if he's asleep at the wheel like Kanye West. The Colts have proven that no deficit is too big for them to come back from and Peyton Manning is now the quintessential QB you can never count out. The Saints defense is swiss-cheese, with its only saving grace being free safety Darren Sharper(whom, if you read our Prop Bet piece, I have taking at least one Manning INT to the house). The Colts have something that mildly resembles a running game, while the Saints have Rashard Mendenhall's caddy at Illinois(Pierre Thomas) and the man mopping up Ray J's sloppy seconds(Reggie Bush).

Reggie Bush has been so ineffective after all the hype coming out of USC, that he's probably one crap season away from joining the cast of "Keeping Up With The Kardashians". Bush is obviously the X-Factor(as is injured pass rusher Dwight Freeney). If Bush shows signs of a pulse, the Saints have a chance for an upset, but if the Saints can't establish the run early and keep the D honest, then we're looking at a shootout. And in a shootout, Peyton Manning is Neo, and Drew Brees is Agent Smith.

So, with this being our final pick of the season, here's my final score: Colts 28, Saints 17.

Your Super Bowl MVP: Pierre Garcon(because he's reppin' Haiti....and that's not so 5 years ago.)


Thank you, and good night!

To 16-0 or not to 16-0?

Quick....who won the Super Bowl after the 2006 season? Ok, now, what teams have had undefeated regular seasons in the modern era?

I bet, unless you're a football dork like me or Dave, it took you a minute, some thinking, maybe even a quick trip over to NFL.com or Wikipedia to answer the first question.

But for the second question I bet you were able to spit out "The '72 Dolphins and the '07 Patriots" rather quickly. Which is exactly why this year's Colts and Saints should be trying to go for the perfect season. Completing this season 16-0 will put them in the history books and people's memory forever. Super Bowl winners, quite honestly, get lost in the shuffle. That is because there is a Super Bowl winner every year. I mean, for crying out loud, the Tampa Bay Bucs have won a Super Bowl in the last ten years.

With perfect seasons however, there have only been two in the modern era. (There were a few in the "pre-modern" era of professional football, but they all either lost in the championship game or were part of the AAFC, whose records are not included in NFL records because not all of the teams migrated to the NFL. How's that for a history lesson?)

Also, they have to go 16-0 to be remembered. The 1998 Minnesota Vikings went 15-1 and no one cares.

Besides, going 16-0 could actually help them in the playoffs. The year the Patriots went 18-1 they played the Giants in the regular season finale. Both teams were locked into their seeds for the playoffs. (The Pats had the top seed in the AFC, obviously, and the Giants were the 5 seed in the NFC.) Both teams played that last game like it meant something and guess what, they met a month later in the Super Bowl.

So, I think the Saints and Colts should play for the perfect seasons. Done and done.

Oh, and by the way, the winners of the 2006 Super Bowl?....The Indianapolis Colts.