One Lucky Colt

The Indianapolis Colts, in a 2011 season that has been hard to watch sans Peyton Manning, have positioned themselves nicely into the co-pilot spot for Stanford wunderkind and unanimous 2012 #1 overall pick Andrew Luck(along with the Dolphins). Through eight weeks, the Colts have a one game edge over their hapless South Beach counterparts, as they stand at 0-8 to M-I-A's 0-7.

While prognosticators have the Dolphins picked to inevitably win the Luck Sweepstakes, the question that has been floating for weeks is "What if the Colts get the first pick this April?". The majority seems to think that the Colts would tab Luck to be their heir apparent to Peyton Manning, who will be 37 and coming off neck surgery next season, but well-known voices such as former Giants QB Phil Simms seem to think otherwise. Simms has even taken his stance out on the limb a step further by openly wondering what all the fuss is about with the kid described as the best QB prospect in decades.

Luck's numbers are nothing short of astonishing in his junior season. He's completing 71 % of his passes for a little over 2,200 yards with 23 touchdowns to just four picks on a Stanford team that's currently 8-0. This comes off a redshirt sophomore season that saw him complete 70.7% of his passes for 3,338 yards with a 32-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The knock on Luck is he's had the benefit of feasting on soft Pac-10 defenses his entire career and that a lot of the hype is over-exaggerated. Simms himself said he's yet to see enough pro-quality throws to jump on the Luck bandwagon. Luck's passed every test so far. Even while unloading on the UCLAs and Oregon States of the world through the regular season, Luck still tore apart a solid defense in Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl last year and, this season, he seems poised to do the same against any one of the SEC's biggest and baddest that Luck's Cardinal's draw in the postseason. Still, after guys like Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush(and Ryan Leaf before them) failed miserably to live up to the insane amount of hype they were given coming out of college, it's not too insane for guys like Simms to be a bit cautious before placing a guy like Luck atop the NFL's pedestal, even if they are in the minority. Remember, there were people who thought Leaf would be better than Manning in 1998 and some of those same people thought Bush was the next Gale Sayers.

Still, we won't know how Luck fares in the pros until he's actually in the pros and the Colts have to mull over the very real possibility that it will be them and maybe not the Dolphins that leads off April's Draft. Here are some of the pros and cons of the Colts tabbing Luck as their #1 pick.

Why The Colts Should Draft Andrew Luck: Nobody knows how Manning is going to recover from neck surgery. Most "experts" thought he would only miss Week 1 of this season, and even that theory was fought tooth and nail by Manning's teammates as well as numerous analysts. Now, it's Week 9 and there's no sign that Manning is coming back this season(nor should he, given that the Colts' season is over). By drafting Luck, the Colts are at least safeguarding themselves from the possibility that Manning's days are numbered. On top of that, they'll be to have "the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning" being mentored by......Peyton Manning. That gives the Colts the "pass the torch" advantage that teams like Denver and Miami are still trying to master after the departures of John Elway and Dan Marino, respectfully, and that teams like Green Bay have managed to benefit from. Whatever you think Luck will be as a pro, the consensus is that he's the best player in the draft. The Colts, which have pretty much killed Manning's chances of another Super Bowl run with some piss-poor drafting over the years, will now be in a position where not even they can mess this up(unless, of course, Luck is Leaf 2.0, but it would be harder to kill them for that than if they passed on Luck because they thought he was Leaf 2.0 and that ends up on not being the case).

The Colts need everything. Their running game is stagnant. The receiving corps are thin beyond Reggie Wayne, whose a free agent at year's end(not to mention, long in the tooth). The team hasn't produced a bonafide star on defense since finding Bob Sanders(who is now gone after many injury-riddled seasons) and Dwight Freeney(who will be 31 next year). Luck doesn't prevent them from catching another 62-7 beatdown like the Saints gave them two weeks ago in their Super Bowl rematch, but he's the surest thing in a draft filled with potential. If the Colts can manage to seamlessly transition from Manning, arguably the greatest QB of our era(at least statistically...we all know Brady's better) to Luck, the highest-rated prospect since '98, then they can spend the next two decades not having to worry about filling the hardest spot to fill on the NFL roster: Quarterback.

Why They Shouldn't Draft Luck: We've seen this before in Green Bay with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Eventhough it will be tough to justify passing on taking a successor when one like Luck falls in your lap(like Rodgers did in '05), it will be even tougher trying to explain to Manning(who has had to sit on the sidelines gritting his teeth and anxiously awaiting a medical green light to play) why you mortgaged the last remaining years of his NFL career by taking someone who doesn't help them at all next season if Manning is healthy. Again, we don't know how Manning heals from neck surgery. What if a year away from taking an NFL beating adds another half decade to his career? Look at what biceps surgery did for Favre after he left the Jets. It's not inconceivable that Manning plays into his early-40's if he recovers well enough. Then, there's the other reason Manning would oppose having Luck, and this is a point I have to give Simms his just due for making. As we've seen in Denver, fans can be very fickle when the product on the field doesn't meet their high standards. Suppose the Colts draft Luck and Manning starts off slow in his '12 comeback campaign, you think there isn't going to be a deafening amount of cries at Lucas Oil for Luck like there were in Denver for Tim Tebow this year?

The risk of angering Manning and running into another Favre-Rodgers-McCarthy-Thompson fiasco in Indy at least equalizes the potential of having lucked into Luck and also will have a long-term effect on the franchise for years to come. After all, if Luck's introduction to the NFL is as the catalyst for getting Peyton Manning ousted from Indianapolis before Mr. Laser Rocket Arm is ready, what can Luck expect when he gets up there in years and the Colts are again looking for their new franchise face? Guys like Manning are old school. Like Favre, Manning isn't going to let old men feasting on pretzels in a press box while penning Manning's demise on their iPad tell him when he has to hang them up. Favre played the "will I, won't I retire?" game with the media for so long that even his most devout followers realized he was doing it out of spite and a never-ending desire for attention and eventually washed their hands with him. The same could happen here for Manning. He may be a media darling now but it's funny how a man's demeanor can change when he feels like the same hands that once patted him on the back after a big game are now pushing him out of the door. We've seen rookie QBs come in and perform well from jump street but the potential of Luck is greatly improved if he's allowed to take the amicable side of playing Rodgers to Manning's Favre as opposed to the more dramatic side(although Rodgers and Favre not getting along hasn't seem to hurt the Packers now under the A-Rod era, but I imagine the Colts would like a relationship far less contentious between Manning and Luck).

So, what's the solution? The easy answer is for the Colts to trade the pick in hopes of getting something close to what the Chargers got for trading out of the top spot in 2001 and giving up the chance at Michael Vick to Atlanta(two firsts, two seconds and a couple players). Although any team that will be willing to pay a huge ransom for a shot at Luck probably is too thin on talent to give Indy anything worthwhile. For instance, we know Dan Snyder wouldn't be gun-shy on a deal for Luck, but what could the Redskins possibly give the Colts to sweeten the deal? Any picks, in theory, would be lower than in 2011 if Luck is what everyone says he is, and who does Washington have that would interest the Colts? DeAngelo Hall? Tim Hightower? LaRon Landry? The same goes for a team like Miami or Cleveland. You think Bill Polian is moving out of the top spot for a bunch of picks and Brandon Marshall or Peyton Hillis? Didn't think so.

Of course, this whole scenario becomes moot if the Colts find a way to not suck for Luck as much as Miami or Cleveland or Arizona do(an interesting scenario on par with the Colts picking first, however, would be if St. Louis ends up with the top spot. Do you trade the pick? Do you trade Sam Bradford? Hmmm...). Time will tell how juicy this story gets but it's something to keep an eye on in a season filled with inconsistent play from teams that play their home games outside of the state of Wisconsin.

AFC South Preview

1. Tennessee Titans

What I like: After trying to get by with a tandem of Vince Young, Kerry Collins and Rusty Smith at QB, the Titans got themselves a steady veteran with a couple good years left in him in former Seahawk Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck will improve a passing offense that ranked 25th last year, while also mentoring heir apparent Jake Locker. The Titans also benefited by dodging two bullets. First, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell decided NOT to suspend talented-but-troubled wideout Kenny Britt for his many offseason indiscretions. Second, after weeks of a much-publicized and panic-filled(for fantasy owners) holdout, the team agreed to a lucrative extension for workhorse back Chris Johnson. CJ2K, Britt and Hasselbeck give the Titans its best offensive trio since the Steve McNair-Eddie George-Yancey Thigpen days and, with the Colts having to start off without Peyton Manning and the Texans possibly having to lead off without rushing champ Arian Foster, the Titans can steal a suddenly up-for-grabs AFC South. Defensively, the team lost Jason Babin but gained back last year's top pick in Derrick Morgan(missed all of last year with a knee injury and is expected to miss the opener) and added two solid LB's in former Buc Barrett Ruud(to replace Stephen Tulloch) and rookie Akeem Ayers to go along with last year's signing of Will Witherspoon. The secondary returns in tact with Jason McCourtey and Cortland Finnegan manning the corner spots and talented safeties Chris Hope and Michael Griffin laying the wood.

What I don't like: The losses on the defensive line over the last couple of years are bound to catch up to the Titans, especially the loss of someone not even on the field: Former defensive coordinator Jim Washburn, who left to be the defensive line coach in Philly. Morgan was arguably the draft's most complete end last year, but he's unproven and, as of right now, unhealthy, and there isn't much beyond him on that defensive line. There are also health concerns with Hasselbeck, Britt and even Johnson(the history of backs who hit the field after a long holdout are kind of scary......see Anderson, Jamal). Hasselbeck has had numerous back issues and Britt missed time with various ailments last season. The team also needs Nate Washington to step up after signing him away from Pittsburgh. It will also be interesting to see how the team responds to new head coach Mike Munchak after the long tenure under Jeff Fisher.

Bottom line: Every year, a team we aren't expecting to break out makes a surprise run. For the first time in years, Indianapolis' grasp on the South has loosened and the Titans have enough talent on both sides of the ball to take advantage. Johnson has to prove he's worth the big payday he spent all summer lusting after and Hasselbeck and Britt need to build a strong rapport to establish balance on offense and lighten the load on CJ2K. On defense, someone has to emerge on the defensive line and provide a pass rush with Jason Babin gone because the rest of the defensive unit is pretty solid. Right now, the Titans are the healthiest team in the division and that gives them a leg up on the already-battered Colts and Texans.

2. Houston Texans

What I like: When all three are healthy, there's no better trio in the NFL than QB Matt Schaub, RB Arian Foster and WR Andre Johnson. Schaub's thrown for 4,000 yards the last two seasons. Foster became the first undrafted back to win a rushing title since Priest Holmes and Johnson continues to cement his status as one of the game's best receivers. It will be interesting to see how the team converts from a 4-3 to the 3-4 under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Mario Williams was coming on as pass-rushing terror as a defensive end but now has to learn to get to the QB as a stand-up outside linebacker. Brian Cushing, the team's other pass-rushing threat, will be moving from the outside to team on the inside with tackling machine DeMeco Ryans. To help improve the worst pass defense in the league, the team signed CB Jonathan Joesph away from Cincinnati and S Danieal Manning from Chicago and moved Glover Quin from cornerback(where he was a liability) to strong safety.

What I don't like: Foster's hamstring injury, eventhough it won't keep him out of the opener, scares me and it adds to skepticism over whether the defending rushing champ is legit or a one-year wonder. The loss of FB Vonta Leach hurts too, even if it was softened by the signing of Lawrence Vickers. I'm also weary of all the moving parts in the team's switch to the 3-4. For as much of athletic freak as Super Mario is, he might be a bit too big to play the DeMarcus Ware role in Phillips' scheme. Cushing is probably better suited on the outside and the team really doesn't have the big bodies up front to clog the lanes and keep blockers off this linebacking core. The Joesph signing helps but Kareem Jackson has to step it up a few notches after being burnt crisp routinely last year.

Bottom line: The Texans are everyone's sexy pick to take the reins of the AFC South with the Colts suddenly crumbling, but we keep waiting for the Texans to step up and it never happens. Offensively, this team has a slew of talent but they need to prove they can win close games and this defense needs to make huge strides, especially against the pass, before we crown them the new kings of the South.

3. Indianapolis Colts

What I like: Without Peyton Manning, there isn't much to get excited for. Even with #18 under center, there were questions about the offensive line and the running game. Now, the offense is temporarily in the hands of grizzled vet Kerry Collins until Manning returns from offseason neck surgery. My money is on us not seeing Eli's older brother before October. One neck surgery is hard enough but to try to come back from two in your late 30's and be deemed medically ready to play a position where you have the ball at all times in an age when QB safety is paramount is a rather daunting task. Collins, meanwhile, has a significantly better supporting cast with the likes of WR Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark than he did during his short tenure in Tennessee. The defense has its share of holes as well, but they still can rely on the pass rushing duo of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney as well as steady middle linebacker in Gary Brackett.

What I don't like: As I mentioned before, the offensive line scares me a bit. When Manning comes back, his blind side will be covered by a rookie left tackle in Anthony Castonzo, who will have to pick up the speed of the pro game instantaneously after being left on the outside looking in during the lockout. The running game is suspect as well. Joesph Addai was horrible last year but looked like Edgerrin James compared to Donald Brown. The best back on the roster might be rookie Delone Carter but who knows when he'll get his crack at the starting lineup. On defense, Freeney and Mathis are going to have to get to QB's quick because the secondary is in shambles. If a shaky pass defense isn't enough, the team is soft up the middle, making their ability to stop the run questionable as well. That doesn't bode well in a division with Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson and Arian Foster.

Bottom line: Manning's absence will allow us to see just how good a coach Jim Caldwell is. Since Tony Dungy's departure, Caldwell has been able to skate on the fact that he had a cerebral assassin behind center that didn't need to be coached up that heavily. Now, he has to turn water into wine by rejuvenating the career of a gray beard in Collins for at least the foreseeable future. As it that isn't enough, the division has gotten better around him and a once-balanced offense now looks one-dimensional while the once-famed Dungy defense is a shell of its former self. I alluded to the idea of the Colts tanking to secure the top spot and find Manning's heir apparent via the man who has drawn the most comparisons to him: Stanford QB Andrew Luck. I was only half-joking. The truth is, an immobile QB coming off neck surgery playing behind a shaky line is the type of risk no medical staff is willing to take. It's not impossible to think we won't see Manning at all this season or, if we do, that he is forced to miss more time by coming back too early. For the first time in more than a decade, things look bleek in Indianapolis and it might only be getting worse.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

What I like: Beyond Maurice Jones-Drew, nothing. The defense has a few respectable names in guys like Aaron Kampman, Rashean Mathis and new hires Paul Posluszny and Dawan Landry but the its mostly the same unit that finished 28th against the pass and 22nd against the run last year.

What I don't like: The Jags made what they thought was a sound business decision by cutting long time QB David Garrard and avoiding the $9 million he was owed this season. The only problem with that is, the team's quarterback options are now career backup Luke McCown and rookie Blaine Gabbert. If that isn't enough to cause a lump in your throat, Mike Sims-Walker, the team's best receiver the past two seasons is gone, and the Jags' new starting receivers are Mike Thomas and Jason Hill. Who? Exactly. On defense, Tyson Alualu, the team's surprise top ten pick, made the Jags look wise by being surprisingly decent last season. However, even with Alualu, the defense was dreadful last year and the team's new additions won't make them too much better.

Bottom line: Unless the Jaguars know something that we don't about Luke McCown, it's going to be a long year in Jacksonville. Jones-Drew, the team's lone bright spot, is coming off knee surgery in the offseason and is now being asked to carry an offense that will almost certainly see a rookie QB in Gabbert start by midseason. The chances of Jack Del Rio surviving this season seem grim. The overall talent is lacking and even proven vets like Kampman come with their own "Yeah, but...." disclaimers. The saddest part of what will be a depressing season for the Jags is that the team already took its franchise QB early, meaning fans will miss out on the possibility of Andrew Luck gracing south Florida. Luckily for the Jags suits, fans don't come to the games anyway and the team will probably be moving to Los Angeles by time Gabbert is ready to be a starting QB.

Yeah.....But......

If there's a headline for the 2010 NFL season through the first 10 weeks, it would read "We Just Don't Know". Nobody seems willing to run away from the pack and emerge as the team to beat. You can legitimately talk yourself into Super Bowl scenarios involving 10 or 12 different teams. Last night, the Steelers lost to the Patriots.....who lost to the Browns a week ago. The Browns lost to the same Jets team in OT that got skunked by the Packers two weeks ago.......the same Packers team that lost heartbreakers to Miami and Washington and completely annihilated the Dallas Cowboys......the same Dallas Cowboys that beat the New York Giants.......who beat the Cowboys a couple weeks ago....and seemed like the team to beat in the NFC. Now, the team to beat in the NFC might be the Atlanta Falcons....who beat the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday.....the same Ravens that beat the Steelers a few weeks ago.....and the same Steelers who won their opener against....wait for it.....the Atlanta Falcons.



The Kansas City Chiefs, my chic AFC West pick that I spent the first month ringing my hands about, have now lost two straight within the division and look very ordinary. Speaking of the Chiefs, there seems to be only one certainty this season: There will be three byes in this year's playoffs in each conference......the two top seeds and whoever draws the AFC and NFC West division winners. Seriously. Look at the the potential Wild Card winners in both conferences. You don't like the Steelers or Patriots' chances of going into Arrowhead or The Black Hole and getting a win? Does St. Louis or Seattle scare you on the road if you're a Packers or Saints fan? Well, if they do, I can't blame you because......we just don't know.



To help us know a little more, here's a breakdown of all the teams with a legit shot at Super Bowl contention and what's to like and not like going forward:



AFC



New England Patriots(7-2)



Why They Could Win It: Tom Brady's in MVP form even without his former deep threat Randy Moss. Brady picked apart Pittsburgh last night, connecting on three TDs to rookie TE Rob Gronkowski. The Pats are back to spreading it around and with the way Brady's slinging it, it's going to be tough to stop.



Why They Might Not: It's the same song since Corey Dillon left: Where's the running game? BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a nice back and maybe he could be a Antione Smith redux barrelling through the snowy grass in Beantown, but he's not someone you should fear as a defensive coordinator. Speaking of defense, I don't trust this Patriots D one bit. The secondary's decent but it did get torched quite a bit against Pittsburgh and against a team that can sling it like Indy or even Baltimore, I'm not sure how they'd hold up. Brady's good enough to win most shootouts but with a suspect D, inexperienced weapons beyond Wes Welker and Deion Branch and no real running game, you can only go so far with smoke and mirrors. I said I was out on New England after Cleveland trounced them. The beatdown of Pittsburgh helps them get back in my good graces but until they can prove they can smack a team like the Jets in the mouth and live to talk about it, I'm skeptical.



New York Jets(7-2)



Why They Could Win It: The running game is strong thanks to the rebirth of LaDainian Tomlinson and you have to figure Shonn Greene is going to get back in the swing of things sooner rather than later. Mark Sanchez is coming into his own in Year 2 and he's getting good production out of once-stonehanded Braylon Edwards and the returning Santonio Holmes, not to mention TE Dustin Keller. The defense is once again in the top five in total defense and against the run and now they have a healthy Darrelle Revis to improve that 15th-ranked pass defense.



Why They Might Not: Of the potential contenders, the Jets are the hardest to find flaws on. They've managed to shore up the run D even without massive NT Kris Jenkins and they'll be better against the pass with Revis back. Still, this team proved in its home loss to Green Bay that it's capable to laying an egg and a couple plays here and there, and they'd be staring 4-4 after OT losses to inferior teams like Detroit and Cleveland the last two weeks. Rex Ryan also has the tendency to quote the "Andy Reid Clock Management" manual and you wonder if the arrogance of both the head coach and some of its players is going to come back to haunt them. Right now, they may be the best team in football, but you have to wonder if these last three weeks were an aberration or a sign of things to come.



Baltimore Ravens(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: On both sides of the ball, they have as much talent as anybody. QB Joe Flacco has been solid(15 TDs, 7 INTs, 2,132 yards) and he's starting to develop some rhythem with Anquan Boldin as his go-to guy. Ray Rice hasn't been the TD machine many had hoped but nearly 700 yards through 9 games is nothing to turn your nose at. Defensively, Ray Lewis is still the leader of the best front seven in football and guys like Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata have been putting on a clinic all season.



Why The Might Not: It's still hard to figure out this team's identity on offense. Are they a smashmouth team that's going to run it down your throat with guys like Rice and Willis McGahee or are they going to let Flacco air it out with his bevy of possession receivers. As good as the trio of Boldin, Derrick Mason and T.J. Houshmanzadeh may be, there's no real deep threat on the roster beyond Donte Stallworth. Who's making a play on 3rd and long? Todd Heap? Defensively, for all its skill up front, the secondary's a mess beyond S Ed Reed. The Ravens give up far too much through the air and the only thing keeping them somewhat respectable is a good pass rush and Reed's reputation. Given Reed's tricky hip, it's asking a lot to expect him to be the only line of defense in a conference that has teams like Indy and New England as pass-first teams. The team also is a bit unlucky. Some questionable coaching decisions hurt them in their loss to New England and bad officiating killed them Thursday night against Atlanta.....and this is after a preseason that saw them lose a lot of talent(Jared Gaither, Sergio Kindle, Fabian Washington to name a few). Sure, injuries are part of the game and no team can manage karma, but it's hard to bet on a team that's spent the first half of the season watching the ball bounce the other way.



Pittsburgh Steelers(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: They are getting a big year on the ground from Rashard Mendenhall and second-year wideout Mike Wallace is becoming one of the game's best #2 receivers. Big Ben is back as well and he's shaking more rust off as the weeks pass. The defense has been pretty stout as well, last night's game not included, as they finally have S Troy Polamalu healthy. Once Roethlisberger is back to his old self(and really, there's no reason why he shouldn't be by now), this team becomes a lot more dangerous on offense.



Why They Might Not: Roethlisberger's effectiveness is contingent on him staying upright and, even with the four games off giving him some freshness, there's only so much that 250lb pound frame is going to be willing to take behind this swiss-cheese offensive line. Speaking of lines, this defense is already feeling the effects once again of having to solider on without DE Aaron Smith. Smith is the catalyst for this new Steel Curtain and, without him, the whole D goes into disarray. Another underlying flaw? The inevitable suspension of star LB James Harrison, who has shown a willingness to test Commissioner Goodell's patience on the new policy on jarring hits. Harrison's been fined a couple times already since the rule change and he's adamant on not changing his ways for anyone. If Harrison has to miss time because Goodell lays the hammer, that would be yet another huge loss for the Steelers defense.



Indianapolis Colts(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: Peyton Manning. That's it. That's all. He's balling out as usual and he's doing it without Dallas Clark and with guys like Pierre Garcon underachieving and Austin Collie and Reggie Wayne banged up. On defense, Dwight Freeney is still upright, which means opposing offenses have to be afraid to throw it. The secondary has been decent and they can make a play here and there if Freeney and fellow bookend Robert Mathis get some pressure.



Why They Might Not: The running game is non-existent. They are 27th in rushing for a reason. That reason? Joesph Addai is hurt, so is Donald Brown and the other guys stink. On top of that, not only can they not run the ball, they can't stop it either(29th against the run). That's a bad sign when facing teams like the Jets or Ravens or, by some miracle, Kansas City or Oakland. As great as Manning has been, he's going to need Garcon to step it up and Collie to stay healthy to keep defenses from smothering Wayne. The Colts made it to the Super Bowl last year without much of a running game and getting a turnover here and there, but lightning doesn't strike in the same place twice.



(Side note: You will not find the Chiefs, Raiders, Rams or Seahawks in this breakdown. As proud as I am of my Chiefs pick, they need to beat a team with a pulse before I consider them a contender. For now, they run the ball well and the defense is better than you think, but this team is still a year or two away from serious consideration. As for the others, well, you give me a reason to consider them, and I'll gladly put it in this spot.)



NFC



Atlanta Falcons(7-2)



Why They Could Win It: Matt Ryan's the MVP dark horse right now and he spearheads an offense alongside the speedy and punishing Michael Turner at running back and Ryan's favorite target Roddy White. Turner and TE Tony Gonzalez make up one of the toughest red zone combos to stop in the NFL. "The Burner" has bounced back after a tough year last year and he's getting a breather or two from backup Jason Snelling. The key, however, has been "Matty Ice"(easily the worst nickname of any major athlete that isn't a name hyphen like D-Rose or A-Rod). Ryan's thrown for nearly 2,300 yards and 16 TDs and has made the Falcons the team to beat in the NFC after I spent the preseason scoffing at people who told me I was sleeping on Atlanta.



Why They Might Not: The defense leaves much to be desired. They are horrid against the pass(23rd in the NFL....not a good look for a team that may have to face the Packers or Saints in Round 2) and, while the run defense is 8th in the league, they haven't really faced a good rushing team yet besides Pittsburgh(which beat them thanks to Mendenhall's 120 yard day, including a 50-yard go-ahead score) and Baltimore(who should have beat them). Even Philly trounced this Falcons team, and that was without Micheal Vick scrambling all over the field. Now, the Falcons don't really have to worry about a good rushing team in this conference besides the Giants and possibly St. Louis(if they even make it that far), but in a Super Bowl matchup against the Jets or rematches with the Steelers and Ravens? Yikes.



New York Giants(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: It pains me to even type the words but Eli Manning is in the mix as well for the MVP, throwing for nearly 2,500 yards and 19 TDs so far. Hakeem Nicks(56 catches, 735 yards, 9 TDs) has been an absolute beast in his second season. RB Ahmad Bradshaw is among the league's leading rushers with 838 yards and, as winter approaches, defenses have to become plenty afraid of Brandon Jacobs shaking the rigamortis off his 6'4, 260lb body. And this defense? Just as I suspected. Big Blue's pass rush has been more punishing than a Manny Pacquaio hook and more cringe-worthy than Chris Berman's 2-Minute Drill. Osi Umenyiora(9 sacks) would be Defensive Player of the Year if not for Clay Matthews' excellence so far. Justin Tuck has been putting in some effort as well(4 sacks). Rookie Jason Pierre-Paul....well, he hasn't broken out as I predicted, but it's still early. The secondary is much better than the bunch that was burned constantly last year(yesterday's torching by Jon Kitna not included) and that, combined with the pass rush, is why this team is 4th against the pass.



Why They Might Not: This team is it's own worst enemy. Who knows what New York's record would be if not for their chronic case of turnover-itis. The Giants currently have a -5 turnover margin. They've lost 12 fumbles and Manning's tossed 13 picks to go with his 19 TDs. With the way this team moves the ball, teams wouldn't come close to them if they could find a way to stop giving the ball away.



Green Bay Packers(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: Green Bay has gotten phenomenal play from QB Aaron Rodgers and Defensive Player of the Year favorite Clay Matthews. Rodgers has 2,300 yards and 15 TDs and is leading an offense that's had to play without TE Jermichael Finley and RB Ryan Grant. The offensive line is doing a much better job of protecting Rodgers than they did last year. As for Matthews, his performance against Dallas last week is all you need to know about his dominance. He's the league leader in sacks and he has been all over the place all season. His pressure as well as the rush from linemen Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji has made things easier for defending defensive MVP Charles Woodson and underrated fellow corner Tramon Williams.



Why They Might Not: When Grant went down, so did the Packers' running game. Brandon Jackson has been so bad as Grant's replacement that the team flirted with the idea of using FB John Kuhn as its lead back for a couple weeks before Kuhn faltered as well. Injuries have made what could have been an elite team into a just a very good one. The offensive line is improved but it still needs work(especially in opening holes for the run game). Rodgers has gotten a little careless with the ball, too. After throwing 7 picks all last season(mind you, while he was getting constant pressure), he's thrown 9 picks in 9 games. He's done better the last couple of weeks, but given the fact he'll be throwing a lot with the running game underperforming, he needs to be wiser with his decisions. Another cause for concern? This team's ineptitude in close games. They are 6-3 but could easily be 9-0. All three losses are by a combined nine points, two of those losses coming in overtime after the led late in the game. The 9-0 shutout of the Jets was nice, but in the next month they get a hobbled Vikings team, and then go at Atlanta(where Matt Ryan is 18-1 so far) and at New England. Those are tough tests for a team that doesn't have its own division locked up yet.



Chicago Bears(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: Honestly, your guess is as good as mine. The Bears six wins this season have come against the NFL's lower crust(Detroit, Buffalo, Carolina, Dallas, Minnesota), with the exception of a win against Green Bay that the Bears did everything in their power to give away. Matt Forte has done a decent job of both rushing and catching out of the backfield but he only has a little over 600 yards combined. Jay Cutler shows flashes of being able to excel in this Mike Martz offense, but those have been few and far between. Defensively, this unit has carried the team, thanks to some stout play against the run.



Why They Might Not: This may be the worst 6-3 team in history. The offensive line has done nothing to protect Cutler. He's been sacked 29 times in 8 games and he's thrown 9 INTs as he continues to chuck and duck. Neither Forte or Chester Taylor has done much for the run game, and these Bears receivers have been pedestrian at best. On defense, Julius Peppers has just two sacks after signing that big contract in the offseason. In essence, this team has one noteworthy to its name and it needed 17 penalties and a costly fumble just to win by three. Until it proves it can beat a good team, they are lock to lose the division to Green Bay, be on the outside looking in come January and start over completely in the offseason.

Philadelphia Eagles(6-3)

Why They Could Win It: The return of Mike Vick as not just an adequate stop-gap, but a solid starting quarterback. Regardless of what the Colin Cowherds of the world may think, Vick's performance in Monday night's slaughtering of the Redskins was one of the best single-game outings we've seen in recent memory. His touchdown strike to DeSean Jackson on the opening play of the game, where he launches a pass 60+ yards from his own 2 and hits Jackson right in the hands, is the play of the season thus far. If Vick can maintain his accuracy to go along with being an electrifying runner, this Eagles offense is going to be tough to stop. As for the other Eagles, Jackson and fellow speedster Jeremy Maclin give this team a speed dimension that is almost like a bizarro "Greatest Show On Turf". Add to the underrated skills of tight end Brent Celek and a decent 1-2 punch of Jerome Harrison and Shady McCoy, and the Eagles possess one of the most balanced offensive attacks in football.

Why They Might Not: The defense is a bit middle-of-the-pack. They are giving up an average of 23 points per game and have been a bit weak against the pass. Asante Samuel has lost a step since coming over from New England a couple years ago, and the rest of the guys are pedestrian with the exception of rookie FS Nate Allen. The front seven has some talent, but injuries have depleted the linebacking core. A bigger issue than that, of course, is the continued horrid clock management of head coach Andy Reid. Monday's blowout saved us from another head-scratching performance by Big Red but go back to the opener against Green Bay when Reid blew all of his timeouts with about 5 minutes to spare in a game that got surprisingly close at the end. There's a reason Reid's teams have underachieved over the years despite all the talent and that reason starts and ends with the heavy-set fellow with the thick mustache. Another concern should be the health of Vick. With as much as he likes to run in the open field, all it takes is another hit like the rib-crusher he took in the first Redskins game to revert this team to the Kevin Kolb "dink and dunk" show.

New Orleans Saints(6-3)

Why They Could Win It: Experience. Unlike the other teams in the NFC, the Saints know what they have to do in the postseason to make it back to the Super Bowl. Drew Brees, while clearly the latest victim of the Madden Curse, is still deadly with the ball in his hands and a few seconds to throw. Lance Moore has made a resurgence as Brees' #2 and Marques Colston is quietly having a good year as well. Eventually, the team will get RB Reggie Bush back and he will be yet another playmaker for Brees to utilize. The defense, once an Achilles' heel for this team, has stepped it up as well. New Orleans currently holds the league's top pass defense(stunning, considering they are without Pro Bowl S Darren Sharper) and are 3rd in total yards allowed and 4th in points allowed.

Why They Might Not: Even with Bush, this team can't run the ball to save its life. New Orleans is 25th in rushing and have been trying to stay afloat with the likes of guys like Chris Ivory. The passing game has made up for the lack of a run game but that can't last for too long(especially since my gut tells me there is something going on with Brees' knee that the team and Brees himself are failing to let on). The defense could also be better against the run. Eventhough this has become a passing league and the Saints can shoot it out with the best of them, the team has to be able to get stops and keep the D off the field for long stretches, especially since Brees and company strike so quickly on offense.

AFC South Preview

Moving right along.....our take on the AFC South.

Dave:

1. Indianapolis Colts: Every year, we keep wondering when the downward spiral for the Colts is going to come. Every year, we wait for Peyton Manning to have an off year or get hurt. Every year, we keep talking ourselves into someone out of the Tennessee/Houston/Jacksonville trio that is going to step up and topple Indy.

Every year, it never happens.

To fufill my obligations of the annual "This could be the year the Colts fall because...." scenario, I will say that there is an interesting wrinkle in this year's Colts that hasn't been there in recent years: The potential of a holdout by star receiver Reggie Wayne. With a lockout looming and Wayne not getting any younger, the All-Pro wideout understandably wants one last payday. Colts GM Bill Polian has been vehemently against giving Wayne a re-up and what we will see over the coming months will be an epic staredown between one of the great contract negotiators in the game and the franchise QB's favorite target. If you had to place bets on who would bend, bet the house on Wayne folding. After all, this is the same team that kicked Colts legend Marvin Harrison to the curb just last year. The Colts also have Anthony Gonzalez returning to a receiving core that also has last year's breakout rookies Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. There's also Peyton's other favorite target: tight end Dallas Clark. None of them, however, are Reggie Wayne and Wayne's contract situation is worth keeping an eye if things get nasty as the season progresses.

Another thing to file in the "This might be the year Indy falls" category would be the tradition of Super Bowl losers falling flat the following season. For as good as the Colts' passing game will be(with or without Wayne), the running game leaves much to be desired. The Colts finished dead last in the NFL in rushing last year(averaging a putrid 80.9 yards per game on the ground). Of course, that didn't stop the Colts from winning the AFC last year, but lightning doesn't strike in the same place twice. The defense was so-so last year as well, giving up 124 yards per game on the ground(24th in the NFL) and 212 yards through the air(14th in the NFL). Helping that cause will be tenacious first-round pick, DE Jerry Hughes, and the hopefully healthy return of pass-rushing phenom Dwight Freeney. Still, in a division that will see the Colts go up against two of the three best RBs in the NFL(Tennessee's Chris Johnson, Jax's Maurice Jones-Drew) as well as an improved running game in Houston(addition of rookie Ben Tate), the lack of improvement to the run defense in the offseason is a bit troubling.

The Colts' fate relies on everything bouncing their way, be it the health of S Bob Sanders, Reggie Wayne's contract beef and/or the re-emergence of the running game, and history has shown that teams that lose the Super Bowl don't get as lucky. So, again, this COULD be the year Indy falls, but after being wrong for years and being disappointed by the inability of the rest of the pack to emerge, I'll believe the Colts will fall when I see it.

2. Tennessee Titans: The Titans may have notched their biggest win of the season before the season even started by coming to terms on a revamped contract for last year's 2,000-yard rusher Chris Johnson. With Johnson no longer expected to soil training camp with a nasty holdout, Tennessee can focus on its next big issue: Making a legit QB out of Vince Young. We know Vince knows how to win and we know Vince has the tools to be every bit of the game-changer his college headlines suggested coming out of Texas a couple years ago. This year, if the Titans are going to contend, we need to see what Vince has got. That's why I don't have the Titans in the Wild Card. I just can't trust Vince Young to take that next step. I'm also leery of the toll of last year's season combined with the fact LenDale White isn't around to take some of the pounding will have on Johnson. As for receivers, there's last year's first round pick Kenny Britt, who led all Titans in receiving. He'll be complemented by former Steeler Nate Washington and highly touted rookie Damien Williams. There's also the threat of Johnson coming out of the backfield. That all sounds good on paper, but it comes down to Young putting it all together and, again, I just can't see it happening.

On defense, the Titans replaced top pass rusher Kyle Vanden Bosch with first round pick Derrick Morgan out of Georgia Tech. Morgan was considered the most complete end in the Draft but got himself into an early hole thanks to a DUI last month. Joining Vanden Bosch on the list of former Titans is longtime linebacker Kevin Bulluck(who recently signed with the Giants). Those two losses might be too much for the defense to overcome, since Tennessee is asking for Pro Bowl-caliber production out of guys who are either rookies or have limited experience. The secondary will be solid with Michael Griffin and Chris Hope at the safety spots and Jason McCourtey and Cortland Finnegan at the corners, but their ability to make plays will depend on guys like Morgan putting pressure on the quarterback. The Titans remain in the hunt to bring back disgruntled Redskin and former Titan DT Albert Haynesworth. His return could drastically change the defense, but the team's success relies on Tennessee's athletic Big Three(Young, Johnson and Britt). If Young continues to be held back by mental demons or Johnson breaks down from the workload or Britt finds himself back at the bottom of the depth chart(or any combination of the three), then it's going to be another long season for Titans fans and, this time, they won't be able to blame Kerry Collins.

3. Houston Texans: Much like expecting the Colts to fall each year, there's the annual "When Will The Texans Become A Playoff Team?" question. They had a lot of sleeper buzz going into last season due to the trio of QB Matt Schaub, WR Andre Johnson and RB Steve Slaton. Schaub and Johnson delivered. Slaton didn't. This year, Slaton has found himself a platoon partner(Auburn rookie Ben Tate) to be the power complement to his lightning-fast speed. The Texans also get tight end Owen Daniels back, who was off to a hot start before a knee injury cut his season short. The Texans remain confident the presence of the beefy Tate and an renewed focus by Slaton(not to mention Arian Foster, who took over for Slaton down the stretch last year) will give them the ground complement their explosive air attack sorely needed. The problem with that is head coach Gary Kubiak and his tendency to play roulette with his RB depth chart. Slaton can't get on a roll if Kubiak suddenly feels the urge to play Foster or gets enamored with Tate.

Defensively, the Texans keep getting scarier. They'll miss two-time Defensive Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing for four games thanks to a PED suspension. Luckily, they'll still have a defense chock full of impressive young talent. Stealing Cushing's tackles the first four games will be tackling machine DeMeco Ryans, who passed the 100-tackle mark for fourth time in as many seasons. The Texans also have two young lynchpins on the defensive line in former #1 overall pick Mario Williams at end and young DT Amobi Okoye. Okoye hasn't been the interior terror many had hoped after his 5.5 sack rookie season(just 2.5 sacks combined the last two years since) but he's still only 23. Houston bid adieu to corner Dunta Robinson and turned heads by replacing him with Alabama corner Kareem Jackson over the much more touted Kris Wilson. Helping Jackson out in the secondary will be the man who gives Tom Brady nightmares, SS Bernard Pollard, and Brady's former teammate Eugene Wilson at FS.

All signs point to the defense being good and the sleeper buzz is still strong in H-Town, but what's keeping me from putting them ahead of Tennessee is the uncertainty in the running game. Beyond his fumbling troubles, Slaton is also injury-prone. Foster is a nice back but he's never done it over a full season and I'm not nearly as high on Tate as many others are. For now, the Texans are a team that is one-dimensional on offense(although the Schaub-to-Andre 3000 tandem is a very good one-trick pony) and still growing on defense. They lost alot of close fourth quarter games last season. Did they learn from it and are ready to show the NFL they are ready for primetime or are they still waiting to grow up?

4. Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags have a lot of people scratching their heads so far this season. A team that scored an average of 18 points per game spent four of their six draft picks on defense, including a jaw-dropper in the first round by taking virtual unknown Tyson Alualu at #10(many projected him at last-first/early second). Then, rather than get in the market for a wideout like Brandon Marshall or Anquan Boldin(both Florida boys, mind you), the Jags used their money to bring in former Packer Aaron Kampman to bolster the pass rush and said bye-bye to last year's free agent flop, WR Torry Holt. The Jags also shipped Pro Bowl DT John Henderson out of town in a draft-day trade to Oakland. The end result is a team that looks worse than last year's 7-9 bunch. The one bright spot for Jacksonville is the man called "Pocket Hercules", RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Thanks to an offseason getting him no help, MoJo returns to his role as the offense's one-man show. M.J.D. will be hoping QB David Garrard will be returning to the form that got Garrard his big extension a couple years. That may be wishful thinking. Reports out of camp have said the QB to watch has been journeyman Luke McCown. Given the temperature under the caboose of head coach Jack Del Rio, don't be surprised if Garrard gets the hook early in favor of McCown should Garrard falter.

And really, how could Garrard not fail? Nobody hardly heard of Mike Sims-Walker prior to his breakout year last year and even with his newfound success, Walker couldn't keep himself out of Del Rio's dog house. Outside of Sims-Walker, who is there? Mike Thomas is decent, but's he's 5'8. Troy Williamson has been a bust since Day 1 and beyond them is a bunch of unproven youngsters. Former first round tight end Marcedes Lewis has scored all of 7 TDs in four years and the chances of a Vernon Davis-like breakout seems unlikely. On top of that, there's Jacksonville's nightmare opening month: Denver, at San Diego, Philly, Indy. There's a good chance of a quick 0-4.

Defensively, the days of John Henderson and Marcus Stroud dominating the inside are now officially over. Instead, the Jags will rely on Alualu to not succumb to the pressure of his shockingly high selection as well as hope Kampman bounces back quick from last year's ACL tear(which is a two-year injury, as any Pats fan can tell you after watching Brady last year). So a team that 27th against the pass WITH Big John in the middle now has to face four teams who love to pass in the first month. If Del Rio isn't the first coach canned in 2010, I'd be plenty surprised. The team looked like they were tuning him out last year, and this group appears to be much worse.







Gabe:


This division has abundant fantasy talent. There are players in this division in the top 10 at each position, including the top player at at least two different positions. The offenses in this division are high powered so don't be surprised if players from the AFC South are being taken all over your fantasy draft.


Here we go...


1. Indianapolis Colts - Houston is on the rise but I think the Colts still have enough in the tank to hold them off again this year.
Fantasy Focus:
Quarterback - Peyton Manning is still among the league's elite. Last year he threw for 4,500 yards and 33 touchdowns, the second highest totals in his career. He is not showing any signs of diminishing either. He is definitely the most consistent, elite, fantasy QB in the league. He'll probably end up a top-3 fantasy quarterback this year.
Running Backs - Joseph Addai and Donald Brown define RBBC (running back by committee). Their talents are exactly opposite. Brown is the big play guy, but also led the league in carries for zero or negative yardage. Addai is the short yardage guy. He is a better blocker and pass catcher. Expect them to basically split time evenly unless one of them gets hurt. Brown is worth some extra consideration in dynasty leagues, especially because Addai will be a free agent in 2011.
Receiving - The Colts have four WR's worth drafting in most standard leagues. Reggie Wayne is still an elite fantasy WR. He is as consistent as Peyton Manning. He has had six straight seasons with over 1,000 yards and three with double digit TD's. There is no reason to think he won't do the same this year. Pierre Garcon is currently the Colts' no. 2 receiver and best deep threat. As long as he isn't taken out of the line-up by a returning Anthony Gonzalez he'll be a solid fantasy WR2. Austin Collie and the aforementioned Gonzalez will be fighting for the No. 3 receiver spot. Both are worth stashing on your bench because even though this receiving corps is crowded, any of them could have a big game. Tight end Dallas Clark is among the fantasy elite and is arguably the top fantasy tight end in the league. He may get caught up in the crowded receiving corps in Indy, but is still a top option.
Defense/ST - Last year they allowed plenty of rushing yards but forced lots of turnovers. They addressed defensive needs in the draft this year and should be a better than average fantasy unit. They will probably finish just outside of the top 10.


2. Houston Texans - The Texans have lots of talent on both sides of the ball. They are getting better but need to finally put it all together and make the playoffs or else they may find their fans getting impatient. All that talent translates to big things in the fantasy world though.
Fantasy Focus:
Quarterback - Quick, who led the league in passing yards last year? Of course the answer is Texans QB Matt Schaub or else it would have been really lame for me to ask that question here. Schaub played all 16 games and led all passers with 4,770 yards. Schaub has plenty of weapons and as long has he stays healthy he should put together another great season. Consider him a top tier fantasy quarterback.
Running Backs - The running back situation in Houston is a three headed RBBC. Ben Tate is the hot shot rookie. Steve Slaton is full of talent but had a disappointing end to last year. Arian Foster was Slaton's replacement as the starter at the end of last year. Most outlets have Tate supplanting everyone to be the starter by the middle of the year. I wouldn't count out a Slaton resurgence. Forget about Foster. He'll only play if Slaton and Tate get injured. Watch this position closely in camp and at the start of the season to see if one of these guys emerges.

Receiving - Last year, in my capacity as Houston Texans guru at ProSportsBlogging.com, I said Andre Johnson was the best receiver in the league. All he did was prove me right by catching for 1569 yards and 9 touchdowns. Expect similar numbers this year. I also wouldn't worry about his production suffering if Schaub gets injured. Dan Orlovsky is a capable back-up and Johnson is too good to not get open. Johnson is going to produce no matter what. After Johnson, the only Texans WR worth drafting is Kevin Walter. He is coming off of an injury but should be a solid WR3. The reason no other Houston WR is worth drafting is because of tight end Owen Daniels. He is without a doubt a top tier fantasy tight end and is treated as another receiver in their offense. He was hurt for the last half of the year in 2009, but in eight games he produced 519 yards and five touchdowns. Those are big time numbers.

Defense/ST - Last year the run defense started awfully (partly because Chris Johnson ran all over them in Week 2), but they came together and finished as a top-10 rushing unit. They will still be a great until against the run and will be great pass rushing, but still struggle against the pass otherwise. Finishing in the middle of the league is the best they can hope for.

3. Tennessee Titans -

Fantasy Focus -

Quarterbacks - After getting benched to start last year, Vince Young has securely grabbed the starting role. He's a below average passer with below average receiving talent. He does pull the ball down and run every now and then so there is added fantasy value there. Let's face it, this is a run-first, run-second, and throw to Chris Johnson on third down offense. Vince Young is a decent fill-in for your starting quarterback's by week, but not much else.

Running Back - Chris Johnson. Done and done. Alright, I'll give you a little more. Last year all CJ did was run for over 2,000 yards, catch passes for over 500 yards, and score 16 total touchdowns. He also had three touchdown runs of 85 yards or more last year, as many as any other player in NFL history has had in their career. Read that last sentence again slowly and let it sink in....Walter Payton, Emmit Smith, Barry Sanders, Gale Sayers, Marshall Faulk. Think of those names and that sentence. AND...he did all of that with LenDale White on the team. Even with White he was clearly the only offensive weapon on the team and he still couldn't be stopped. White is gone now and there is some concern that CJ's touches will be limited to prevent injury, but all of the hype is still warranted. In standard leagues he is the best. In PPR leagues he is the best. In touchdown only leagues he is the best. In leagues that give bonuses for long touchdown he is definitely the best. He probably won't get 2,000 yards rushing again, but 1,800 and another 500 receiving with double digit touchdowns should be expected. He should be the first player taken off the board in every fantasy draft. If you draft CJ and for some reason are worried about injury, draft rookie LeGarrette Blount and hope CJ doesn't go down. Javon Ringer and Alvin Pearman (Wahoo-Wa!) aren't worth drafting.

Receiving - Dave's boy Kenny Britt (from Rutgers) is the only Tennessee player that is a starting fantasy WR, and even he is only a borderline WR3. Nate Washington and Justin Gage are worth a bench spot, but none of the receivers will be worth much more unless the Titans start to throw the ball more. Tennessee is clearly a run first offense, always keep that in mind. Tight end Bo Scaife is currently a starter. He gets yards but few touchdowns. He is a borderline fantasy starter at best. Keep an eye on back-up TE Jared Cook. The Titans like him, he has huge upside, and he may be a great waiver wire pick-up in season.

Defense/ST - The Titans defense has lost a lot of veteran presence; Kyle Vanden Bosch, Keith Bulluck, etc. This has made way for young talent and I think the Titans are a sleeper to be a top-10 fantasy unit.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Fantasy Focus:

Quarterbacks - David Garrard has had two seasons in which he started 16 games. He had nearly identical seasons...roughly 3,600 yards in each season. He threw 17 TD's in one season and 18 TD's in the other. And that was with zero at receiver. He is much better option at home (2,100 yards last year), so Garrard is a good bye week start if he is at home, but not much more.

Running Backs - Starter Maurice Jones-Drew is a fantasy stud. He is only 5'7" but is strong and built like a bowling ball. There may be a risk of him wearing down, but in the short term he is a top-3 option at running back. Rashad Jennings is Mojo-D's back-up. Draft Jennings to handcuff Mojo and pray to God you don't have to use him.

Receiving - Jacksonville's receiving corps is full of fantasy also rans. Their top option, Mike Sims-Walker, is a mid-level WR3. Their second receiver, Mike Thomas, is only worth drafting as the last back-up in the deepest of leagues. QB Garrard has his best games at home, so Sims-Walker and Thomas will be used as bye week fill-ins, as long as they are playing at home. Starting tight end Marcedes Lewis doesn't score many touchdowns, so he is a fantasy back-up at best. Keep an eye on back-up tight end Zach Miller. He had a huge game in Week 17 of last year (8 catches, 69 yards, 2 TD's), so he might start getting more looks.

Defense/ST - They used to be one of the best. They stink now. They also have the brutal misfortune of having to play the other offenses in the AFC South twice a year. Yup, that's two games each against CJ, Peyton Manning and the Colts, and Andre 3000. Six games, also read 40-50% of your fantasy regular season. They aren't worth any fantasy consideration, even in the deepest of leagues.

Far From Super Bowl

It was supposed to be a shootout between two of the game's premier quarterbacks. It was supposed to be Montana vs. Marino: The Sequel.

It wasn't.

While Peyton Manning(31-45, 333 yards, TD, INT) and Drew Brees(SB record tying 32 completions on 39 attempts, 288 yards and 2 TDs on route to winning the SB MVP) put on a great show statistically, the game lacked the suspenseful back-and-forth of last year's championship game. Even as Manning thundered down the field trying to make up two scores in under four minutes, the actions dragged more than "The Departed". Truth be told, the most exciting play of the entire game came on Tracy Porter's Pick 6 in the fourth quarter that essentially put the game away.

And the halftime show? Jeez. Look, we know that The Who wasn't going to find a new audience by performing vinyl classics to an iPod generation, but they somehow managed to look more dated than Phil Simms' hairdo. To be fair, I was raised in the city in New Jersey, where The Who isn't quite as popular as, say, The Wu-Tang Clan, but if The Who's goal tonight was to attempt to remain relevant to the nation's youth, then they failed miserably. This is the risk you take when you try to play it safe. Since Nipple-Gate, we've seen The Rolling Stones, Prince, Bruce Springsteen and now The Who. Somebody get Fox the number to Kansas' agent! How about we see if Boston is available next year? What about Bon Jovi or maybe even some Foghat? Would a Jay-Z/Beyonce duet have been THAT bad? We really couldn't let the young people have their Taylor Swift? Fuck, put the Jonas Brothers up there if you want to be safe(On second thought, DON'T. I plead with you. Don't do it.).

Then, there's the legendary Super Bowl commercials. Who would have thought that there would be more Danica Patrick sightings during the Super Bowl than Kim Kardashian? Practically all of the million dollar ads shown tonight were largely forgettable with the exception of the trailers for Ridley Scott's "Robin Hood" remake and the other "Avatar" movie, "The Last Airbender". The Doritos people had a bigger impact during the second half than Dallas Clark did, but I couldn't possibly tell you about one of their commercials. It was another lackluster performance on a night of lackluster performances.

Where was the star power? Sure, Manning and Brees showed up and Saints RB Pierre Thomas made his case to make Reggie Bush expendable, but where was Reggie Wayne? Where was Jeremy Shockey? It's a shame when the ex-Hurricanes with the biggest impact during Super Bowl weekend were Warren Sapp and Michael Irvin. Speaking of shames, it's a damn shame that the only Colt defender who came to play tonight was an undersized defensive end playing with torn ankle ligaments. Dwight Freeney's bum wheel was the biggest hot button topic leading up to tonight's game(which should have been a red flag that this was a suckfest from the get-go. Showdown between the two best QB's in the game and our top Super Bowl stories were a defensive end's ankle and a five-year old hurricane?). If you watched the Colts D against the Jets and the Saints D against the Vikings, there is no way you would have came into this game thinking that Indy's defense would be the ones getting picked apart like Clinton Portis at a chicken wing eating contest. Sure, Manning went for over 300 yards and even as things looked grim after the Porter house call, you still never counted the Colts out. However, the Saints D made plays when it mattered. It shut down Reggie Wayne, even as top corner Jabari Greer was hobbled. Manning had to make near-perfect throws to get Dallas Clark involved. The Saints defense made the rookie receivers(Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie) beat them and the rooks came up just short.

As disappointing as tonight was from an action standpoint, the Saints deserve their props. As annoying as the "This one's for the city" cliche postgame interview quotes will be and all the excessive celebrating on Bourbon Street that will eventually lead to drunken riots that Fox News will no doubt blame on rap music and Obama, it really is nice to see a good guy like Brees get his day in the sun.

At least somebody has a reason to be excited about what transpired tonight.

Super Bowl Picks

The most bittersweet day of the year for football fans is here. The excitement for the biggest game of the year is tempered by the fact that there is no more NFL football after tonight, until August.

So let's get right to it.

New Orleans (+5) at Indianapolis
Over/Under - 56.5

Gabe: I have gone back and forth on this pick for two weeks. At first I thought Colts all the way. Peyton Manning is the best in the league at diagnosing defenses on the fly and countering. Also, he has two weeks to prepare for a New Orleans defense that is ranked in the mid-20's in the NFL. He has already dismantled the no. 1 and no. 3 defenses in the playoffs on the way to the Super Bowl.

BUT........

The Saints have all of the motivation in the world to win this game. On top of Katrina and helping rebuild their city and everything that comes with that, all they have heard for two weeks is how Peyton Manning is going to do his thing and smoke them. They have had to hear that they are a nice story but just won't get it done on the field. Well, when the Colts defense takes the field in this playoff game, it won't be journeyman Joe Flacco or rookie Mark Sanchez under center, it will be Drew "Motha' Fuckin'" Brees. The Saints aren't going to try to keep this game in the high teens or low twenties, scoring-wise. They are going to come out and want to run with the Colts, and if there is any team in the league that can run with the Colts, it's the Saints. The Saints offense is going to be able to match the Colts and I think the Saints defense will pressure Manning and his receivers. When the Colts receivers catch the ball they better wrap it up, because the Saints defenders will be looking for the strip, constantly, and it only takes one lost fumble after a fifty yard gain to change the momentum of a game.

Here's my prediction in a nutshell...I think the Saints, led by Drew Breeeeees!, get the outright win, with a field goal at the end of the game or in overtime, by a score of 31-28. So my official pick is the Saints (+5) and the over.

Dave: Colts(Under) - The Saints offense, while still potent, hasn't been the fast break, explosive, '99 Rams reincarnation that they looked like early in the season. That could be attributed to the fact the running game never took off to make the defenses lay off the Brees' air attack.

Plus, and this may get me in some trouble, I'm quite frankly annoyed by all of these out-of-towners suddenly jumping on the Katrina bandwagon. Hurricane Katrina was 5 years ago. If you were going to use Katrina as a reason to support the Saints(or New Orleans, in general), 2005 would have been a nice start. This sudden idea that the Saints are America's Team because they bounced back from a national tragedy to make the Super Bowl(Nevermind the fact that they were in the NFC Championship in '05. But hey, I guess if you've only been a Saints fan for three weeks, you don't remember that) is downright ridiculous. Plus, while thousands losing their lives in New Orleans is terrible and we all have a sentimental reason to back the city of New Orleans, keep in mind that this city also brought us Lil Wayne(without question, the most overrated rapper in the genre's history) and Harry Connick Jr.(I really don't have a reasoning beyond the fact that he's Harry Connick Jr and he once did a guest spot on "Friends", which is only the worst show to ever come across TV sets EVER....and that includes "The Mike O'Malley Show" and "Homeboys In Outer Space"). So if there's a reason why I'm turning my nose up at the Saints, it's because I've spent the last two weeks watching rich white women yell "Go Saints!" when they couldn't tell the difference between Drew Brees and Drew Carey.

Now, as for the Colts, they are a well-oiled machine. They've also been here before. You don't have to worry about coach Jim Caldwell getting the big game jitters because a. he has about as much emotion as Joe Buck and b. The Caldwell/Manning combo is like the Uncle Junior/Tony Soprano combo in "The Sopranos"(which IS the greatest show to ever come across TV sets....and I'm including "The Wire" and "Jersey Shore"). In other words, one man holds the title of being the boss(Caldwell playing the Uncle Junior role), while everyone knows the young prodigy is really running things(Peyton being Tony Soprano). Manning's the closest thing to a player-coach in the NFL, which is great because Caldwell's expression on the sidelines makes me wonder if he's asleep at the wheel like Kanye West. The Colts have proven that no deficit is too big for them to come back from and Peyton Manning is now the quintessential QB you can never count out. The Saints defense is swiss-cheese, with its only saving grace being free safety Darren Sharper(whom, if you read our Prop Bet piece, I have taking at least one Manning INT to the house). The Colts have something that mildly resembles a running game, while the Saints have Rashard Mendenhall's caddy at Illinois(Pierre Thomas) and the man mopping up Ray J's sloppy seconds(Reggie Bush).

Reggie Bush has been so ineffective after all the hype coming out of USC, that he's probably one crap season away from joining the cast of "Keeping Up With The Kardashians". Bush is obviously the X-Factor(as is injured pass rusher Dwight Freeney). If Bush shows signs of a pulse, the Saints have a chance for an upset, but if the Saints can't establish the run early and keep the D honest, then we're looking at a shootout. And in a shootout, Peyton Manning is Neo, and Drew Brees is Agent Smith.

So, with this being our final pick of the season, here's my final score: Colts 28, Saints 17.

Your Super Bowl MVP: Pierre Garcon(because he's reppin' Haiti....and that's not so 5 years ago.)


Thank you, and good night!

To 16-0 or not to 16-0?

Quick....who won the Super Bowl after the 2006 season? Ok, now, what teams have had undefeated regular seasons in the modern era?

I bet, unless you're a football dork like me or Dave, it took you a minute, some thinking, maybe even a quick trip over to NFL.com or Wikipedia to answer the first question.

But for the second question I bet you were able to spit out "The '72 Dolphins and the '07 Patriots" rather quickly. Which is exactly why this year's Colts and Saints should be trying to go for the perfect season. Completing this season 16-0 will put them in the history books and people's memory forever. Super Bowl winners, quite honestly, get lost in the shuffle. That is because there is a Super Bowl winner every year. I mean, for crying out loud, the Tampa Bay Bucs have won a Super Bowl in the last ten years.

With perfect seasons however, there have only been two in the modern era. (There were a few in the "pre-modern" era of professional football, but they all either lost in the championship game or were part of the AAFC, whose records are not included in NFL records because not all of the teams migrated to the NFL. How's that for a history lesson?)

Also, they have to go 16-0 to be remembered. The 1998 Minnesota Vikings went 15-1 and no one cares.

Besides, going 16-0 could actually help them in the playoffs. The year the Patriots went 18-1 they played the Giants in the regular season finale. Both teams were locked into their seeds for the playoffs. (The Pats had the top seed in the AFC, obviously, and the Giants were the 5 seed in the NFC.) Both teams played that last game like it meant something and guess what, they met a month later in the Super Bowl.

So, I think the Saints and Colts should play for the perfect seasons. Done and done.

Oh, and by the way, the winners of the 2006 Super Bowl?....The Indianapolis Colts.