With 2010 NFL regular season coming to a close, we have a bit more clarity than we did a few weeks ago in terms of figuring out who is at the top and has a real legit shot at the Lombardi Trophy (New England and Atlanta seem to be the front-runners)and who is just a pretender. However, the bigger story are the teams that disappointed us a little. 2010 didn't really offer up many surprises beyond the Rams and Seahawks contending for the NFC West title(almost by default though, since San Fran and Arizona have done everything they can to NOT win it) and the Chiefs standing atop the AFC West(unless, of course,
you co-signed what I predicted in August).
So, since we'll have the next month or so to dissect the contenders and who and what to watch for come playoff time, let's use this time to take a look at the teams that were a bit underwhelming this season and what needs to be done next year to be more Chiefs-esque.
*Dallas Cowboys(currently 4-9)
Expectations: With their acquisition of first-round pick Dez Bryant to go along with an offense that already had Pro Bowl QB Tony Romo and last year's breakout star, WR Miles Austin(as well as a stable of legit running backs) to complement an athletic defense, Dallas was seen as a chic Super Bowl contender. This, however, was despite the fact this year's Super Bowl was to be held in the new home of the Cowboys and no team has ever made it to the Super Bowl when it's set to take place in their backyard. This was also despite the fact the Cowboys were still being coached by underachieving head coach Wade Phillips.
What Happened: To put it plainly, this team quit on Phillips at the first sign of danger. After losing to Washington and Chicago to start the season 0-2, the Cowboys got a nice win over Houston and then proceeded to go through the motions for the next six weeks. During that span, Romo would get sidelined with a broken clavicle after fullback Chris Gronkowski whiffed like Adam Dunn on a curveball in a blitz pickup of Giants linebacker Michael Boley. Beyond the loss of Romo, the team found out the hard way that once-punishing running back Marion Barber is now a few deep breaths above a cadaver and that Felix Jones is no more than a taller Darren Sproles. On top of that, the pass defense is every bit as bad as I hinted at in August, as they now stand 27th in the NFL against the pass. Needless to say, after a public trouncing on Sunday night by the Packers, Phillips was canned and replaced by one-time heir apparent Jason Garrett. The team, suspiciously has played better under Garrett, winning 3 of their last 5, but their season is done, regardless if Romo comes back or not.
Plan of Action: Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is going to want to make a splash in appointing his new coach. To the surprise of no one, he'll start first by dipping into the quartet of Jon Gruden/Mike Holmgren/Tony Dungy/Bill Cowher.....and he'll end up being disappointed. Gruden couldn't handle working for Al Davis in Oakland, so I can't see him jumping at working for an egomaniac like Jones. The same goes for Cowher, who spent years under the well-respected Rooney family in Pittsburgh and might not be so eager to deal with the polar opposite in Dallas. I really think Dungy is done with coaching and Holmgren isn't going to give up complete control in Cleveland to butt heads with Jones in Dallas. Another name that will surface may be former Florida coach Urban Meyer. Meyer is off doing the family man gig and has given no signs of wanting to return to coaching or join the pros for that matter, but he's a big enough fish for Jones to take a shot at. Inevitably, he'll find he's better off with Garrett. The team knows his playbook and clearly have responded better with him as the head coach than the offensive coordinator. What Garrett will need, however, is a good coordinator for the defense. A team with this much talent on the defensive side of the ball should not be as bad as they've been this season. Perhaps a guy like Mike Nolan could do wonders for this defense.
Once the coaching staff is straight, Jones needs to do a better job of acquiring talent through the draft. Sure, Bryant was a nice steal before breaking his ankle, but there hasn't been much to show from the last few draft classes. If he can't lock down a top of the line corner like Nebraska's Prince Akanamura or LSU's Patrick Paterson, Jones needs to shore up the offensive line. Doug Free isn't getting it done as Flozell Adams' replacement and, if the team wants to avoid seeing Romo in street clothes again, they are going to need to keep him out of harm's way. A trade for Ravens' left tackle Jared Gaither would be a low-cost risk, as he is coming off an injury-marred 2010, but given the lack of elite tackles in this year's draft, he may be worth it.
*Minnesota Vikings(currently 5-8)
Expectations: After coming an interception short of having their storybook season end with a Super Bowl appearance, the Vikings conned QB Brett Favre into giving it one last go under the assumption that they could repeat last year's performance and send "The Riverboat Gambler" out on top(
Although my friend Andre warned people to not get too excited).What Happened: They couldn't. Favre never played like a man motivated to make one last run, either because he was still hurting from offseason ankle surgery or the pressure from the Jenn Sterger sexting scandal was weighing on his mind. On top of that, the team grew more and more impatient with incumbent head coach Brad Childress. After butting heads for weeks with Favre, Childress was eventually canned and replaced with promising head coaching candidate, defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. Still, even with the Vikes winning two of three under Frazier, it was too little, too late. Favre became a turnover machine more so than he's been in perhaps his entire career, as the offense clearly missed Sidney Rice(who missed the first two months after hip surgery). Minnesota tried to motivate Favre and instill some life into the passing game by trading a 3rd round pick for Randy Moss but, after three weeks, Moss was waived and the offense continued to sputter. The defense mirrored the offense in its underachievement. Jared Allen started off slow after being an all-season terror last year and frustration finally settled in this past Monday when players were irate after getting trounced by the Giants on Monday night.
Plan of Action: Cam Newton. That's the simple answer. Favre's finished, as you may or may not have heard about his 297-start streak ended the other night, and Tarvaris Jackson isn't the answer. There really isn't a veteran QB out there that would pick up where Minnesota left off last year, unless something drastic happens with Donovan McNabb in Washington(and even he isn't an upgrade) or if they can pilfer Mike Vick or Kevin Kolb from Philly. Newton, the 2010 Heisman winner, is the Draft's biggest enigma. He's big(6'6, 250lbs), with a solid arm and runs like a Mack truck. With him, Adrian Peterson and a left side of the offensive line led by Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson, they easily become the scariest power running team in football. A switch to an unproved QB who won't try to win the games on his own will allow Minnesota to go back to winning the way the knew how to pre-Favre: By handing the ball off to #28. No Favre means more emphasis on the best back in the country and with the mobility and power of a guy like Newton, teams will be a little more apprehensive of stacking the box against the Vikings. Newton could be a poor man's Big Ben or Josh Freeman and he's enough of a quandary to slide down to Minnesota in the first round.
On defense, whether DT Pat Williams retires or not, the team needs some fresh legs to replace him. They also need another DE to complement Jared Allen as Ray Edwards disappointed in what was supposed to be a breakout year following his solid postseason last year. The team can also use a corner or two to be eventually take over for Antione Winfield as well as bolster a unit damaged by injuries. As for Frazier, he's a bright enough star to deserve a full season. Again, unless Minnesota can lure a Cowher/Gruden-type to the Twin Cities, there isn't another coordinator out there that would be a better candidate than who they already have running the show.
*Washington Redskins(currently 5-8)
Expectations: The return of head coach Mike Shanahan to the sidelines and the acquisition of Pro Bowl QB Donovan McNabb gave people in the nation's capital hope that this would be the year they get off the snide after years of suffering under the Jim Zorn/Jason Campbell combo.
What Happened: Shanahan was aggressive in leaving his mark on his new team. He just may have went about it the wrong way. For starters, he butted heads almost immediately with overpaid, overweight DT Albert Haynesworth, but never was able to find a way to get rid of him from the roster, so the toxic nature of their tension spread throughout the locker room. In addition to that, Shanahan may have damaged the ego of McNabb by benching him during a crucial two-minute drill for Rex Grossman because Shanny was unimpressed with McNabb's "conditioning" and ability to run a two-minute offense.
If the lack of confidence from Shanahan wasn't hurting McNabb enough, the lack of a run game certainly didn't help matters. Clinton Portis stayed true to form and got hurt early in the season. Shanahan stayed true to form as well in his typical roulette with who was going to shoulder the load in Portis' absence. First,it was Larry Johnson. Then, it was Ryan Torain. Then, it was Keiland Willams. None were too productive, but Torain and Williams did a decent job filling in. The same can't be said for McNabb's receivers. Santana Moss was good for a few big plays here and there but he's clearly playing like a man whose best days are behind him. The same can definitely be said about Joey Galloway, who was washed up long before Washington tabbed him as their #2 receiver. Anthony Armstrong emerged as a nice target, but he's a #3 or #4, at best. Defensively, the team was abysmal. Beyond Brian Orakpo, the team had no other pass rush, which led to a highly overrated secondary getting burnt to a crisp routinely. The lack of motivation by Haynesworth to man the middle in the new 3-4 also killed the team against the run. Going into Week 15, the 'Skins are 29th against the pass and 28th against the run.
Plan of Action: Washington needs to make decisions on the futures of Haynesworth and McNabb. Haynesworth is obviously not coming back next year, but there's no excuse for why this team couldn't have tried harder to move him sooner than this offseason, when he had some value. As for McNabb, he got a new extension but the Redskins made it a point to publicly mention the out clauses in Donovan's new deal. He could very well be the first QB to sign an extension midseason and be gone before the next year. The problem with that is, who's better than McNabb? Grossman isn't worth cutting ties with Donovan. Perhaps Washington could make a run at Kyle Orton or try to revive Carson Palmer, but neither of those guys seem like definite upgrades. Shanahan needs to come out in Year 2 and hit some homers in the offseason. The offensive line is still horrible and now the team needs a real running back instead of trying to stay afloat with once-great veterans. They also need someone on the other side of Orakpo to put some pressure on opposing quarterbacks, as well as finding a nose tackle who actually wants to play in the 3-4. The fortunate side of all that is that Shanahan has Dan Snyder's big checkbook to go grocery shopping with. While the 'Skins got their props for not being big spenders this offseason, there's too many holes on this team to incorporate that logic again this year. Shanahan has to be flawless this offseason. Otherwise, given Snyder's quick trigger, Haynesworth might have some company flying out of D.C.
*San Francisco 49ers(currently 5-8)
Expectations: They were the sexy pick to win the NFC West, mainly because everyone else seemed a year or two away. They made some moderate improvements to the offensive line and, given the breakout years of Vernon Davis and Alex Smith a year ago, combined with a full season of Michael Crabtree and the presence of Frank Gore, this offense seemed poised for fireworks. Defensively, they one of the league's best last year and the addition of hard-hitting safety Taylor Mays was only going to stand to make them better.
What Happened: It's hard to say, really. I guess we should have expected Alex Smith to not be the goods with the spotlight on him, but you would have thought San Fran would at least be serviceable the first two months of the season. They weren't. The Niners entered November 2-6 and, by then, already made the switch to another Smith at QB: Former Heisman winner Troy Smith. Troy wasn't terrible under center, but eventually, his shortcomings(no pun intended) were exposed and the team went back to Alex this past week in their 40-21 win over Seattle. To show how putrid the NFC West is, the Niners are only a game out of first, despite starting the season 0-5. Any run at the postseason, however, will have to be done without Frank Gore, who is done for the season.
Plan of Action: Again, it's hard to say, because this team could very well back into the playoffs still. They are in must-win mode and their final three games aren't exactly backbreakers. They travel to San Diego to face a Chargers team that has been up and down all season. Then, they finish with two division games: on the road against the Rams and then at home for now John Skelton-led Cardinals. It's not incomprehensible to think San Francisco can run the table. Regardless of how these final weeks shake out though, their mission this offseason is clear: Upgrade at quarterback. The first name that pops up is Kevin Kolb. Given the way Mike Vick is playing right now, there's no way he's not the starter in Philly next year unless he prices himself out of the Eagles' range and goes elsewhere. That's got to be a huge setback for a kid who entered the year finally getting his shot at being The Man. In San Fran, Kolb can do what he does best: dink and dunk defenses to death and load up for a few bombs deep. Kolb's accuracy makes him a huge upgrade over either of the Smiths and his couple games of experience makes him a better option than going back to the drawing board and drafting another QB. Even with a class that is set to have Andrew Luck of Stanford, Jake Locker of Washington, Ryan Mallett of Arkansas and the aforementioned Cam Newton, the Niners might win enough to be out of range for those four. The other possibility, if the Niners can't get Kolb(or even Vick, who would be an even better option) would be.....prepare to cringe, Niners fans.......Carson Palmer. Palmer's been dreadful the last couple of years, but that could be attributed to Cincy's poor offensive line(or Palmer could just suck). Regardless, all signs point to Palmer being available and maybe he could return to form by going back to Cali and playing for a better team in a weaker division. Other than a new QB, the Niners aren't missing too much else. Some help at corner would be nice, since Nate Clements is being weighed down by his big contract far too much to return to Pro Bowl form.
*Cincinnati Bengals (currently 2-11)
Expectations: The Bengals went the "Expendables" route and brought in every former NFL miscreant, in the hopes they'd come together in unison and form a talented team of head cases. Some of the names added this offseason: Matt Jones, Pac-Man Jones, Terrell Owens and Antonio Bryant. With all that untapped potential, some thought the half-brain plan might actually work and the team would actually make another return to the playoffs after winning the AFC North last year.
What Happened: Surprisingly (sarcasm alert), a team consisting of T.O., Chad Ochocinco, Cedric Benson, Andre Smith, Tank Johnson, and Pac-Man Jones couldn't hack it together. With all the proposed firepower on offense, Carson Palmer still couldn't revert back to his old Pro Bowl form. Perhaps a mystical curse swapped out Carson for his brother, Jordan, or perhaps the Bengals' Swiss cheese offensive line has morphed Palmer into a chuck-and-duck quarterback or maybe Palmer just sucks. We may never know, but shockingly, T.O. has been the lone bright spot for Cincinnati, reeling in 72 catches for 983 yards and 9 TDs so far this season. Of course, that didn't
stop T.O. from resorting to his typical T.O. antics. Beyond Owens, there hasn't been much to like in the 'Natti. Cedric Benson went from being last year's feel good story to the lead rusher on the 30th ranked rushing offense. Ochocinco has disappeared from the face of the Earth, save for a couple commercials, a terrible reality show, and appearances on Versus' T.Ocho Show. Palmer's thrown 18 picks this season, and may have ended his Bengals career with the two pick-6s he threw against Pittsburgh this past week. He'll have company on his way out, as head coach Marvin Lewis(in the final year of his contract) is a sure shot to not be back next year. Defensively, what was once a hard-hitting, physical, and inspired defense now has somehow forgotten how to rush the passer(combined 18 sacks...with Carlos Dunlap leading the way with 4.5) or stop the run.
Plan of Action: Palmer will probably welcome a change of scenery, after being sacked 28 times and having to deal with this merry band of knuckleheads. Of course, cutting ties with Palmer means having to find his replacement and, needless to say, that person is not on the roster. The Bengals will be in better position to snatch one of the top flight QBs than some of the other teams mentioned here, but they have needs elsewhere that need to be addressed. For starters, former top 10 pick LT Andre Smith isn't the goods and either needs to have an inferno lit under his rear end or be sent packing. The offensive line needs huge upgrades, regardless of who the QB is next year. Since there's nobody at the top of the draft that's worth taking on the offensive line, Cincy needs to go defense, where they've had success in the past years in the first round(Keith Rivers, Jonathan Joesph, Leon Hall). The name that has come up a few times in association with the Bengals is Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers. Bowers is 6'4 275lbs and is coming off a season where he notched 15 sacks and 24 tackles for loss. While Cincinnati has used high picks on the line in bringing in guys like Dunlap and Michael Johnson, Bowers wouldn't be a bad guy to throw in the mix. If not Bowers, Auburn DT Nick Fairley(if he declares, which many think he will) or Alabama's Marcell Dareus(who is an underclassman as well) would fill a huge void in the middle of the line as well.
As for who replaces Lewis, it needs to be someone hard-nosed who is also willing to clean house. A team can get by with a huge loose screws but he can't have a whole team of them. Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has been a candidate for head coaching jobs for years but it's hard to promote a guy whose defense has failed as miserably as Zimmer's D has. As much as it pains me to type this, former Packers head coach/current Texas A &M coach Mike Sherman may be deserving of another try after his success in Green Bay and his stature as an offensive line guru. Another offensive-minded guy who could get a look is former Super Bowl-winning head coach Brian Billick, who probably would like a crack at a return to the NFL on top of facing his former team in Baltimore. Regardless, to change the Bengals, there needs to be a change in demeanor. There needs to be less gambling on problem children in the hopes that the friendly confines of Cincinatti will change their ways. It hasn't worked in years past and it certianly won't work going forward. Owens probably wore out his welcome with his latest comments and he was the only one of the troubled bunch to actually produce. It's time to cut ties with all of them and start from scratch. A team with this much talent should be not 2-11. The case can be made for Palmer to stay, but after this season, why would he want to?
*Houston Texans(currently 5-8)
Expectations: Everyone thought this was the year Houston finally takes the next step. With QB Matt Schaub finally stepping up last year into the rung of elite QBs, Andre Johnson as his tag team partner, and a young and athletic defense, the Texans were supposed to take the AFC by storm....and that was before we found out that RB Arian Foster was a certified beast.
What Happened: Like a nerd on prom night, the Texans couldn't close. They set an NFL record this season for coming back from down 14+ points to tie or take the lead and lose(Note: They did that four times......in 13 games. Terrible.). While the Texans didn't blow the doors off the AFC, Foster sure did. He leads the league in rushing with 1,330 yards and 13 touchdowns. Schaub and Andre 3000 have been Pro Bowl calibur as well. Schaub has close to 3,500 yards passing and 20 TDs and Johnson has contributed 1,158 yards and 7 TDs of that. Defensively though, the team was as good giving it up through the air as they were slinging it themselves. While stout against the run(6th best run D), the Texans were dead last against the pass. Some of that could be attributed to the loss of former star corner Dunta Robinson(who went to Atlanta), but a team with guys like Mario Williams and Brian Cushing rushing the passer should be better at stopping team through the air. Still, the Texans' Achilles heel this season is the same thing it's been the last couple of years under Gary Kubiak: their tendency to choke like a first-time throater with the game on the line. Case and point: Down 28-7 to Baltimore on Monday Night Football, Houston battles back to force overtime.....only to have Schaub toss the game-winning Pick-6 to Josh Wilson to give the Ravens the win. The Texans' struggles late in games is mind-boggling and it is hard to find one person to place blame on. Is it head coach Gary Kubiak who is getting the late game jitters? Is it Schaub? Or is it just bad luck? Regardless, this team can't continue to hang their hat on what their record is SUPPOSED to be. Fact is, they are a 5-8 team and they've deserved every one of those eight losses.
Plan of Action: The easy solution will be firing Kubiak, because he's the easier goat than Schaub(especially since Schaub has numbers on his side and the fact there's only a select number of signal callers who can sling it like him), but who is out there that release the large lump lodged in this team's throat during crunch time? I mentioned last week that Jon Gruden would be a good fit for this team since he's fiery and has an good offensive mind, but this team's problems aren't on the offensive end. Leslie Frasier is a solid defensive coach, but is he a proven late-game winner? Not yet. The best man for the job is the guy who can rally this team when the pressure is on. That might be Gruden. It could also be Marty Schottenheimer, who is also looking to get back in the NFL. As for the personnel, the secondary could use a veteran or two to shepard young corner Kareem Jackson. Champ Bailey is the big name on the market, but it remains to be seen whether he'd leave Denver. The same can be said for Antonio Cromartie and the Jets. If Gruden gets the gig, maybe he brings former pupil Ronde Barber over from Tampa. However it's done, change needs to happen. The Texans have an insane amount of talent on both sides of the ball, but it needs a proven motivator to take them to the next level. Otherwise, they'll be where they've been every year: on the outside looking in and making excuses.
Luck's dominance of the Hokies was, as my friend Carlos put it, like watching Peyton Manning play against high school kids. Luck has all the tools to be "The Next Big Thing" in the NFL. Another year of dominating the Pac-10 is going to nothing to change that. ESPN draft expert and Mel Kiper wannabe Todd McShay has said Luck's the best QB prospect he's scouted in nearly a decade. Former Super Bowl winning QB-turned-ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer says he sees no flaws in Luck's repertoire. Jon Gruden, in a season that has seen him slurp more QBs than a Jets masseuse, nearly flooded the booth last night drooling over every Luck throw. Luck tried to play it coy in his post-game speeches, saying the typical "We'll see" and "I haven't made up my mind yet" cliches that a kid who doesn't want to let down his classmates would say. If Luck is as smart as his Stanford education would suggest, this should be a no-brainer. 
