AFC West Preview

Dave and Gabe break down the AFC West and unveil the first big curveball of this year's previews.

Dave:

1. Kansas City Chiefs: Wait, wait, stop laughing. Hear me out(or read me out...however you choose). The Chiefs made a couple of savvy moves in the offseason. They found potentially electrifying running back Jamaal Charles a running mate in the aging-but-still-steady Thomas Jones. They grabbed the best defensive prospect not named Ndomokong Suh in the Draft with the 5th pick(Tennessee safety Eric Berry) and they hired a couple coordinators with a proven NFL track record(at least as coordinators) in former Patriot sideline mavens Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis. Another thing to keep in mind before you write this pick off. The Chiefs have three teams that made the playoffs last season on their schedule this year. Of those three, one is Arizona, which will be a shell of themselves after losing Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle in the offseason. The other is division rival San Diego. I'll get to why I don't like San Diego in my Chargers write-up but just know that the Chiefs open with San Diego on Monday night while star wideout Vincent Jackson will be out due to a suspension/holdout and Pro Bowl left tackle Marcus McNeil a holdout as well. An upset on primetime isn't impossible. Unlikely? Maybe, but not impossible.


I think Weis will have a huge impact on QB Matt Cassel, who was subpar in his Chiefs debut. I like the duo of Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers and I think Charles will be in charge(yup, 80's TV reference) eventhough I think T.J.'s presence makes him a suspect fantasy factor. Defensively, Berry comes highly regarded from defensive maven Monte Kiffin. All of the hype surrounding Berry suggests he's the best defensive back prospect since the late Sean Taylor and potentially the next Ed Reed. You pair that kind of playmaker with budding star corner Brandon Flowers and, all of a sudden, the Chiefs have a solid secondary. Crennel was putrid as a head coach in Cleveland but there's no denying his ability as a defensive coordinator. He made the Patriots respectable on defense without a ton of big names on the roster. The same could hold true.



Now, that's the good. Here's what scares me about going bold with this pick. One, the offensive line is a bit of a trainwreck. Cassel was sacked 42 times last year and the team didn't really do much to improve that front. You'd like to think former first rounder Branden Albert will be better with another year of adjustment from guard to left tackle, but right now, I'll admit I'm a bit uncertain. Defensively, while Crennel will improve the team considerably, there are a few question marks south of the secondary. Who's rushing the passer on this team? Tamba Hali has the skills to be a solid edge rusher. Can Crennel bring it out of him? Does Mike Vrabel have another decent year left in the tank? What about the defensive line? There's no Richard Seymour-type big body to hold down the line of scrimmage. Will one emerge? We know it won't be former top pick Glenn Dorsey, since when he isn't hurt, he's overweight and he's a bad fit for the scheme anyway. So, yes, this pick can blow up in my face, and really, it's not so much that I like Kansas City as much as I think San Diego and Denver took a turn for the worst. In all reality, given the moves that were made, Oakland might be the team to watch for in this division, but I wasn't ready to get THAT crazy just yet.



2. San Diego Chargers: I've been burned by the Chargers so many times over the years that I've finally given up on them. Every year, I expect them to put it all together and take home the Lombardi trophy. Every year, they disappoint me. Why am I so down on this year's bunch, you ask? Well, keep in mind that the Chargers needed miracle collapses by Denver the last two years to win the AFC West. They are notorious slow starters....and that's before GM A.J. Smith got them into this huge contract quagmire. As I wrote in my holdout piece, the Chargers find themselves with three big contract holdouts on the roster. Left tackle Marcus McNeil, who is the most likely to cave of the three, has made it known he isn't budging off his desire to get paid. The longer he's out, the more at risk QB Phillip Rivers is since the Chargers can't be serious in thinking veteran acquisition Tra Thomas can replicate McNeil's impact on Rivers' blind side. WR Vincent Jackson is suspended for the first three games of the season thanks to a DUI beef, but Rivers' favorite target was planning on sitting out til Week 10 until he, too, gets a big payday. Finally, there's Shawne Merriman, who will probably be cut or traded before the opener anyway and hasn't really been an impact guy for the last two years but is still stuck in contract limbo. The team can't trade him until he signs his tender and, well, "Lights Out" doesn't seem ready to pick up a pen yet. Those are three big issues for San Diego. You can't have a quarterback with limited mobility being protected by a washed up left tackle, while trying to throw to a receiving core that replaced 6'5 Vincent Jackson with 5'11 Josh Reed for at least the immediate future. On defense, "Lights Out" may have landed more hits on Tila Tequila than opposing quarterbacks in recent years, but he's still a dominant force when he's right. Recently, Smith said he does not plan to negotiate deals with the restricted trio during the preseason, which means we could not see these guys until Week 10. That's three big absences....and those are the guys ON the roster.

Here's who is not on the roster anymore: Washed up legendary running back LaDainian Tomlinson, massive nose tackle Jamal Williams, Maury Povich superstar/cornerback Antonio Cromartie. Now, L.T. has been dead the last couple of years, but his replacement is an unknown rookie named Ryan Mathews. Mathews certainly has the build and skill to replace L.T., but you're still expecting a rookie to replace a legend. Maybe he turns out to be Curtis Martin. Maybe he turns out to be Curtis Enis. Williams, on the other hand, has been injury-prone the last couple of years but there's no doubt he will be missed inside. Nose tackle is the most important position in a 3-4 scheme and right now, the guy in charge of filling that spot is 5th-round pick Cam Thomas from UNC. Cromartie has gotten his share of knocks over the years, both for being a philanderer who will knock up any woman in a 20-block radius and for being a guy who tackles as hard as Marlee Matlin. Of the three big departures, he may be the easiest to fill as Antione Cason was solid in the nickel role last year. Still, you combine those losses with the current problems they have with McNeil/Jackson/Merriman, and that's a recipe for disaster. Remember, the last time we saw this team, it was getting its hat handed to them by the Jets...and that was with all six of the aforementioned guys on the roster.

Now, if McNeil and Jackson ink extensions, then everything I said becomes a moot point. The Chiefs aren't the best team in this division. They are just the team with the most leverage and the least amount of big departures. The Chargers can still be the class of the division and the AFC if Smith quits playing hardball and retains his big holdouts. As for Merriman, he's probably a goner and the team won't really miss him THAT much, as they have Larry English and Shaun Phillips to replace him, but he's still a guy who was once the face of the defense and is now a face on "Entourage". That's never a good thing. So six weeks from now, I may regret this decision, but if forced to make a pick based on what I see now, I say the easy schedule is the only thing keeping the Chargers in playoff contention. However, if Smith's frugal replacements fail and the team can't lock up their big three holdouts, we may be looking at a nightmare season for the Chargers and Smith and Turner may be looking at the classifieds by Christmas.

3. Denver Broncos: I know Brandon Marshall was a knucklehead. I know this. I'm still not sure getting rid of him was the right move. The Broncos had yet another offseason of making waves, after supplying plenty of headlines last year with the Jay Cutler debacle. First, they finally jettisoned coach Josh McDaniels biggest headache, WR Brandon Marshall, to Miami. The problem I have with that is, while Marshall was a pain in the ass, he still produced on the field. Who else is catching balls for the Broncos? Eddie Royal, who caught all of 37 passes and scored all of ZERO touchdowns last year? Brandon Stokley, whose biggest achievement may be making Gus Johnson a YouTube sensation? Rookie Demaryius Thomas, who dealt with foot injuries at Georgia Tech(a team that's core offense was the option, mind you)? We can go back and forth as to whether trading Marshall was the right move or not. That's a discussion for another time. Right now, the Broncos have to wonder who is replacing the 100+ catches a season Marshall provided. They also have to worry about the QB situation they got themselves into. When the team traded for former Browns "savior" Brady Quinn, many saw it as the Broncos trying to find their QB of the future by picking up a young prospect with not a lot of miles on him off Cleveland's scrap heap. Then, the Broncos moved down in the draft and selected QB project/college idol/Holy roller Tim Tebow. Tebow is farther away from being a complete product than a new Marlins stadium, yet he carries such a huge following that it will be almost impossible to keep him on the bench if things go sour quick. On top of that, current starter Kyle Orton played well last year knowing nobody was breathing down his neck. Now, he has a hungry Brady Quinn gunning for him and one of the greatest college football players of all time on the depth chart as well, while trying to produce with a receiving core that's one Pro Bowl wideout short. Don't think that doesn't run through his mind this season. The running game, meanwhile, just got a little bit slimmer. Reports out of Denver say that the team fears that starter Knowshon Moreno may have torn his hamstring, and it isn't known how long he'll be out. Backup Correll Buckhalter was also injured in camp and it is unknown how severe his injury is. Prior to both of those injuries, the Broncos traded RB J.J. Arrington to Philadelphia for LB Joe Mays. Moreno could be back by the opener, but hamstring injuries are always tough-and-go. The team signed hometown boy LenDale White, but he'll miss the first four games on suspension. The lack of a proven runner just puts more pressure on Orton to make plays in the passing game, which is something the bearded wonder doesn't need with Quinn and Tebow breathing down his neck.

On defense, the Broncos picked up Jamal Williams to man the middle, but there really isn't much else. CB Champ Bailey went from the unquestioned top corner in the league to barely in the top 5 thanks to injuries and advanced age. D.J. Williams is solid, but the team took a serious kick in the teeth with top pass rusher Elvis Dumervil expected to miss the season with a torn pectoral tendon. The team will have to rely on a couple of former high draft picks to make up for Dumervil's absence. Robert Ayers struggled last season and the team is still waiting on Jarvis Moss to show a pulse. In the secondary, it's Champ Bailey and that's it. The team traded a future first for undersized corner Alphonso Smith, but he wasn't productive in his rookie year.

The Broncos blew another big division lead last year and now, with their second big name traded away in as many years, the pressure is on McDaniels to come up big immediately. That's going to be tough with a three-headed monster at QB, no proven wideouts and a defense that is pretty suspect even if the rankings suggest otherwise. The Broncos struggled to score last season even with Marshall(20th in the NFL in points scored) and now stand an Orton injury away from opening up the Brady Quinn Era in Colorado. The team needs Thomas to be the highly-touted prospect he appeared to be leading up to the Draft and they need it now, because as the losses pile up, so will the chants for McDaniels' head and Tim Tebow behind center.

4. Oakland Raiders: They have to be here almost by default. After all, it's the Raiders. Still, I like what they did in the offseason. A defense that was 29th against the run got a bit more beefy by trading for former Jags Pro Bowl DT John Henderson and drafting huge DL Lamarr Houston from Texas. That gives the Raiders a massive defensive line at the front of that 3-4 scheme with Big John, Houston and Richard Seymour. The team made a couple other sneaky moves for that front seven. They traded for disappointing former Jag Quentin Groves and top Browns pass rusher Kamerion Wimbley to provide some heat off the edges. In the middle, they drafted Alabama ILB and Gabe Rodriguez man-crush Rolando McClain, who will feast on opponents with that big front three keeping blockers off him. In the secondary, they have the man regarded(at least on the West Coast) as the best corner in the game: Nnamdi Asomugha. Asomugha's presence is the chief reason why Oakland was seventh against the pass last season. Beyond Asomugha, it's slim pickings. Former top pick Michael Huff has been largely disappointing at safety and the team didn't really improve on the secondary much in the offseason.

On offense, they finally made amends for the terrible choice of QB JaMarcus Russell with the #1 overall pick by sending him and his case of Purple Drank packing. In his place is beleaguered former Redskins QB Jason Campbell. Campbell is a lot better than 'Skins fans and other naysayers give him credit for but he'll be in a similar situation in Oakland as he was in Washington, meaning he'll be running for his life behind a patchwork offensive line. Unlike the secondary, the Raiders made some moves to get some protection for their new QB. They drafted huge offensive tackle Jared Veldheer(6'8, 330lbs) out of tiny Hillsdale College as well as equally massive tackle/guard Bruce Campbell from Maryland(6'6, 314lbs). Campbell showed off his ridiculous athleticism at the Combine but was knocked for his inconsistent work ethic. If both pan out, the combination of them two and former #2 overall pick Robert Gallery and former Dolphin Samson Satele could turn the Raiders offensive line from a swiss-cheese mess where QBs go to die to a solid unit that will allow Campbell and RB Darren McFadden to flourish like they hadn't been able to in previous years. McFadden's the other big name on the offense. He's been a disappointment so far thanks to the porous O-Line and his inability to both hold onto the ball and stay healthy. Everything I read so far on Run-DMC suggests he's in top shape and that this could be the year he justifies his high selection of a couple years ago. Helping him out in the backfield will be power back Michael Bush. Bush might finally be recovered from the knee injury that wrecked his final year at Louisville but it remains to be seen if he's a legit top back or not. Another suspect area is the receiving core. The Raiders flirted with the idea of adding T.O. but wisely thought against it. That leaves them with a unit comprised of stone-handed second-year man Darrius Heyward-Bey, last year's top wideout Louis Murphy and rookie Jacoby Ford. Ford is the most intriguing of the bunch. He lit up Indy with a 4.2 40 at the combine and, if he can show consistency catching the ball, he may end up being Campbell's top target.



The Raiders are still a couple years away, but they are in a better position, potential-wise, then they've been in years. The roster is filled with quite a few promising young players and if Oakland hits on them, then maybe it's Oakland and not Kansas City who emerge as the surprising kings of the West. Still, this is Oakland and not ready to get THAT crazy.....yet.


Gabe:


Ummmm....I don't know how to say this delicately....Dave's wrong. Maybe he is blinded by love. His lovely wife Niki is a Chiefs fan, but she has them winning only six games.


Also, I remind everyone to look at Dave's history of picking games and winners. You'd have your legs broken by mean looking Paulie Walnuts-types if you bet on his picks in Vegas.


Here's my take....


1. San Diego Chargers - They may disappoint people perrennially, but they are still one of the most talented teams in the league. This team is going to score points. Last I checked Philip Rivers (the most under-appreciated great QB in the league), Antonio Gates, and Vincent Jackson are still on this team. Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles are going to complement each other in the offensive backfield. The defensive backfield will suffer because of the loss of Antonio Cromartie, but the defense will still perform against the rest of this weak division.


Fantasy Focus:

Quarterback - As I said before, and will all apologies to Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers is the most underappreciated great quarterback in the NFL. The team doesn't have an aging LaDanian Tomlinson anymore, but Rivers still has enough weapons to have another 4,000+ yard, 30 TD season. (Interesting side note: Rivers is the third QB in my top four, along with A-Rod and Drew Brees, whose bye week is week 10. Might make for some interesting back-up decisions. Matthew Stafford anyone?)

Running Backs - Everyone knows, LT is out, Ryan Mathews is in. Everything I've read says Mathews and Darren Sproles are a nice fit together. Expect Mathews to get most of the reps to start the year, with his role getting bigger as the year goes on. Sproles will get a lot of third down and passing down action. Sproles has added value in leagues that give points for individual return yards.

Receiving - Without LT, expect the team to throw more to their WR's. Jackson is out to start the year but should come back on fire. He is a solid high-end WR2 option. Malcolm Floyd is a nice no. 2 reciever who may post extra numbers with Jackson out. He may also get swallowed up because he'll be facing top-flight coverage. Either way, even when Jackson is back Floyd is borderline fantasy starter. He's a solid fantasy back-up though. Tight end Antonio Gates is arguably the best fantasy tight end out there. He had a monster year last year with over 1150 yards and 8 TD's. With LT gone and Jackson out to start the year, expect Gates to continue to get plenty of looks.

Defense/ST - The Chargers have been a solid fantasy defense for some time. Well, no more. There are just too many players gone and too many concerns with who is still there. They are an average back-up fantasy defense at this point.


And now for my curve-ball......


2. Oakland Raiders - I like what they have done this off-season. Their defense was OK last year and their offense has improved greatly this off-season. I like the combo of McFadden and Bush at running back. Jason Campbell is a huge upgrade over JaMarcus Sidibe, I mean Russell. I think Denver is going to regress (Kyle Orton to Jabar Gaffney ain't scarin' anybody.) Kansas City is going to stink. That's it.

Fantasy Focus:

Quarterback - Jason Campbell is now in town but will be playing in a new offensive system for the 31st straight year, which is impressive because he's only 28 years old. Campbell has an arm as big as Russell's, but he is accurate. He will fit nicely in the vertical passing game the Raiders tried to run last year. Tight end Zach Miller is going to be a great safety valve...more on him later. Campbell will be a great QB2. Look for a good match-up in which to play him.

Running Backs - Darren McFadden and Michael Bush take center stage as an RBBC this year, especially with Justin "Huggy Bear Jr." Fargas gone. McFadden or Bush could have a breakout year. McFadden is probably a high level fantasy back-up and Bush isn't far behind. If you draft one make sure you draft the other and watch their performances closely, especially if one gets injured.

Receiving - Without question the best fantasy receiving option on the Raiders is tight end Zach Miller. Last year he had 66 receptions, which was 32 more than anyone else on the roster. He also had 284 more receiving yards than anyone on the team. He should only do better with Campbell throwing him the ball. He'll be a popular sleeper this year. Expect some knucklehead to draft Miller in the fifth round and think it's special. The WR's on Oaklands roster are utterly undraftable. Heyward-Bey is only worth a late desperation pick at best. The rest are not worth even a waiver wire consideration.

Defense/ST - The defense was one of the worst units last year, fantasy wise. Their run defense is awful. They drafted to improve their defense, but I'd take a wait and see approach with them. They aren't worth drafting this year.




3. Denver Broncos - This team is going to stink on offense. With Elvis Dumervil's injury they are going to be worse on defense too.

Fantasy Focus:

Quarterback - The Broncos have three quarterbacks with names you recognize, Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn, and Tim "Friar" Tebow. No of them are worth drafting. Orton is the starter, nominally, and would be a back-up option at best, even without the competition. If Tebow slides into some sort of H-back or "wildcat" role he may have some value. Other than that, stay away.


Running Backs - Knowshon Moreno was the clear no. 1 starter, until he got hurt. Now, Correll Buckhalter is also battling injury and the team recently signed Justin Fargas. This will be a full fledged RBBC, at least early in the season. Moreno should be healthy and ready for the start of the season. I think he'll start slowly, but will eventually be as productive as his pre-injury expectations.


Receiving - How's this for a receiving corps? Jabar Gaffney, Demaryius Thomas, Eddie Royal. Yup, fantasy back-ups. All of them. Also, apparently Denver's starting tight end is Daniel Graham. Undraftable.


Defense/Special Teams - This defense's fantasy value last year was because of their sack totals....and now Elvis Dumervil is hurt. They are a low level back-up squad at best.


4. Kansas City Chiefs -


Fantasy Focus:


Quarterbacks - Matt Cassell is talented, but has found out that Dwayne Bowe ain't Randy Moss. If Cassell had better talent surrounding him he'd be great, but as it stands now he is a low level back-up.


Running Backs - Jamaal Charles broke out during the second half of last year and is the starter going into the season. They brought in Thomas Jones, who led the prolific Jets running attack last year. Jones has a little left in the tank, but not enough to overtake Charles for the starting spot. Charles is probably a top 15 back and Jones is worth taking as a handcuff.


Receiving - Dwayne Bose is a top 20 WR. Chris Chambers is also a borderline fantasy starter. Rookie Dexter McCluster is just barely draftable, but has the potential for some big games. Tight end Tony Moeaki is a deep sleeper.


Defense/Special Teams - They weren't good last year. They have upgraded, especially with the addition of Eric Berry at safety. I think this defense is on the rise, but it a year or two away from being relevant for fantasy purposes. For now, stay away.